Draft prospects

[Stinger226]

I listen to people that scout for a living much more than fans. Drafts are about value of your pick. I think Booker is a day one starter but if scouts rate someone better, I'm going to listen to the conversation. It's about the value of the #10 pick, If Membou is rated higher I think he will be a better player. If we trade back to the latter part of the round and take Booker, I would be elated. 

[BearFan PHX]

17 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I listen to people that scout for a living much more than fans.

I'm not saying you should listen to me. You can hold whatever opinion you want to. That goes without saying, for everything any of us write on this board.

MY opinion is that blindly following things you read makes people subject to narratives. It's not rocket science, I can watch film on a player, especially on the OL, and see how they do against quality opponents, and get an idea of how they perform.

I watch football because I like to watch it and learn about it. Otherwise, why wouldnt I just read about the games too?

Anyway this all comes down to the idea that I have a different opinion than you do, and thats OK, for both of us. There's no need for there to be only one truth, and for what it's worth, it seems like I'm not disagreeing with you anyway, just with someone you read.

I stand by what I've said, even after not enough research yet. Booker is a first round talent. If any writer or scout says otherwise, i think it makes everything else they say questionable too.

Now im not saying he is perfect. He is a hell of a pass protector, and he has all the physical tools to dominate, but he does have some work to do as a run blocker. He's not a top 5 guy, I can see that. Most years no guard goes that high.

But every rookie has work work to do, and someone is gonna take Booker in the first round. Probably somewhere before pick 25. If someone wants to put a 2nd round grade on him and create controversy for clicks, so be it. But it isn't a golden fact from the heavens.

And for what it's worth, neither is anything i say.

[BearFan PHX]

Oh and one more thing. These scouts make a living saying controversial things, so if any of their guesses turn up right, they were the one guy saying it, and they can trade on that. No one remembers all the times they guessed wrong. It's the contrarian play, well known in all kinds of businesses. It's valuable and gives people something to balance common wisdom against, but it's not something you can make a living betting on over and over.

The vast majority of pundits, and writers etc all agree that Booker is a first round talent, and i admit, that doesnt make it so either.

But I just watch the tape, and develop my own opinion. Then right or wrong, at least it's mine.

[Stinger226]

I don't blindly follow what someone's opinion is but he has watched hours of tape more than I have. I read many opinions, look at tape myself and form an opinion. I think you keep saying you haven't watched much tape on anyone yet. So later in the process, I will find more value in your opinion. 

Having said all of that, NFL people make mistakes all the time. All we can do is read watch and see what happens. We have to get a star at #10 , not just a starter. As I look at more information, there's people I start to like. 

Watch some tape on Membou, he's a beast. Also TJ Sanders and Joshua Farmer. A couple DTs I like.

[Stinger226]

17 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Oh and one more thing. These scouts make a living saying controversial things, so if any of their guesses turn up right, they were the one guy saying it, and they can trade on that. No one remembers all the times they guessed wrong. It's the contrarian play, well known in all kinds of businesses. It's valuable and gives people something to balance common wisdom against, but it's not something you can make a living betting on over and over.

The vast majority of pundits, and writers etc all agree that Booker is a first round talent, and i admit, that doesnt make it so either.

But I just watch the tape, and develop my own opinion. Then right or wrong, at least it's mine.

Scouts that work for teams mislead al the time. Ourlads is independent and they just have opinions, who they going to lie for? Booker could go top 10 , I don't know any different, I just added more information on Membou is all. Had I not heard that opinion, I may never had watched the tape.

[BearFan PHX]

38 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

We have to get a star at #10 , not just a starter. As I look at more information, there's people I start to like. 

Watch some tape on Membou, he's a beast. Also TJ Sanders and Joshua Farmer. A couple DTs I like.

#10 does seem early for Booker for sure, and I am definitely  looking forward to seeing Membou and the others too.

I dont doubt anything said about them, especially since I am pretty much ignorant about them right now.

My only point was from what Ive already seen on Booker, i dont think a 2nd round grade is realistic at all?
 

35 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Scouts that work for teams mislead al the time. Ourlads is independent and they just have opinions, who they going to lie for?

Not to mislead. A contrarian is someone who deliberately takes the opposite side of common wisdom. The reason they do it is because when something unexpected happens, they get to say "see? im the only one that predicted Booker would go in the second, and i was right! So you should listen to me more" Contrarians are found in every business, and they are valuable because their opinions run contrary to what everyone else is saying, so you can use them to "check your math" and make sure everyone isnt just blindly following everyone else, which also happens a lot, especially among sportswriters.

Im just saying no matter what someones pedigree is, or however lacking mine is (which it IS, ive never worked a day in the NFL!) I can still see it's pretty clear that Booker is a first round talent.

To me it's self evident, and arguing from authority is a logical fallacy. Being right, whether youre a pro or not is what its about, but being a pro doesnt make someone right of course, and in this case, Booker is too good to be a 2nd round guy.

[Mongo3451]

If we could draft Membou and Zabel, it might just send me to hang with Virginia.  Both of these dudes are athletic and nasty. 

Problem with Membou is that he's a right tackle.  Can he play left?  I'm guessing yes.  He's still 20 years old, so there's room to grow.  With Zabel, I think he's going in the first.

[Stinger226]

10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

#10 does seem early for Booker for sure, and I am definitely  looking forward to seeing Membou and the others too.

I dont doubt anything said about them, especially since I am pretty much ignorant about them right now.

My only point was from what Ive already seen on Booker, i dont think a 2nd round grade is realistic at all?
 

Not to mislead. A contrarian is someone who deliberately takes the opposite side of common wisdom. The reason they do it is because when something unexpected happens, they get to say "see? im the only one that predicted Booker would go in the second, and i was right! So you should listen to me more" Contrarians are found in every business, and they are valuable because their opinions run contrary to what everyone else is saying, so you can use them to "check your math" and make sure everyone isnt just blindly following everyone else, which also happens a lot, especially among sportswriters.

Im just saying no matter what someones pedigree is, or however lacking mine is (which it IS, ive never worked a day in the NFL!) I can still see it's pretty clear that Booker is a first round talent.

To me it's self evident, and arguing from authority is a logical fallacy. Being right, whether youre a pro or not is what its about, but being a pro doesnt make someone right of course, and in this case, Booker is too good to be a 2nd round guy.

I just posted a different opinion to create a talking point not to make his case. I absorb as much information as I can and the year will play out as it does. Ironically Ourlads has a top 35 and he is listed Booker in the mid 20s That is a composite of all their scouts. Actually that is where I thought he might be drafted anyway without any research. 

I would be very happy getting a trade back and get him there. 

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

If we could draft Membou and Zabel, it might just send me to hang with Virginia.  Both of these dudes are athletic and nasty. 

Problem with Membou is that he's a right tackle.  Can he play left?  I'm guessing yes.  He's still 20 years old, so there's room to grow.  With Zabel, I think he's going in the first.

I think most pundents see him playing inside or RT not left. A few say they think he could play there, who knows where he ends up. Like you said nasty attitude and productive.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I just posted a different opinion to create a talking point not to make his case. I absorb as much information as I can and the year will play out as it does. Ironically Ourlads has a top 35 and he is listed Booker in the mid 20s That is a composite of all their scouts. Actually that is where I thought he might be drafted anyway without any research. 

I would be very happy getting a trade back and get him there. 

Seems right to me.

And just to be clear, my problem is never with someones opinion, because obviously no one knows anything as a fact right now of course! It's just the idea that because so and so said it it must be true. Thats what im arguing against, not the opinion itself.

And if someone asserts they know something factual from inside info, thats cool, its just when it comes to pure opinions that i dont care who said it, I just evaluate the opinion on its own merits.

[Stinger226]

6 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Seems right to me.

And just to be clear, my problem is never with someones opinion, because obviously no one knows anything as a fact right now of course! It's just the idea that because so and so said it it must be true. Thats what im arguing against, not the opinion itself.

And if someone asserts they know something factual from inside info, thats cool, its just when it comes to pure opinions that i dont care who said it, I just evaluate the opinion on its own merits.

Everyone says how good Tyler Booker is, I just listed a different opinion. That rates him a little lower in the draft. I listen to all opinions,I don't get stuck on one, I'm flexible.

[AZ54]

After all that now I have to go figure out who Tyler Booker is.    

[BearFan PHX]

30 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

After all that now I have to go figure out who Tyler Booker is.    

lol hes a top rated guard in the draft. great physical tools, great pass blocking, needs work on his run blocking, but has a body that says he should be able to master it with good coaching.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

lol hes a top rated guard in the draft. great physical tools, great pass blocking, needs work on his run blocking, but has a body that says he should be able to master it with good coaching.

The kid from Alabama who could barely run at the combine?

[BearFan PHX]

46 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

The kid from Alabama who could barely run at the combine?

yes. his game film is really good, and most draft sites have him as the top rated guard in the draft.

Its one of those things where game film and combine performance dont agree.

Im not saying we need to draft him - thats a big multidimensional question, but he is a better prospect than the combine, and subsequent narratives would lead us to believe.

Hes a little rough in the running game, but he is a beast in pass protection, and he is very strong. It's likely he can get better int he run game since he handles the pass rush so well. He understands leverage, and has real strength, he just needs to learn how to deliver while moving forward and into the second level.

He is 6' 5" and 321, and has huge hands.

NFL.com Mock has him going 17th to CInci, Sporting News has us taking him at #10 (I disagree with Mel Kiper i think), PFF (yuck) has him going 22nd to San Diego, CBS has him going 13th and 26th in their mocks.

None of that means anything other than that it's not insane that he would go in the first round.

You know me, I'm a game film guy. Ive seen some on him, looked pretty good in pass pro. He needs better angles in run blocking but he is STRONG on film.

I hope there are better options for us at #10, because taking a guard that high, you dont want him to have any asterisks around run blocking! If we got him in the late teens or 20s after a trade down, that'd be a different story.

But my main point is just that the combine is just one day.

[Stinger226]

90% of evaluation is tape. Some GMs get excited with high RAS scores ( Poles) but ultimately you have access information and figure it out 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

90% of evaluation is tape. Some GMs get excited with high RAS scores ( Poles) but ultimately you have access information and figure it out 

so true. we went through a bunch of coaches who thought they could coach up physical potential instead of drafting football players.

I say the same thing about Will Campbells arms being too short. Skoronski, for example, had other problems that kept him from being an NFL OT (he was a catcher, not a striker), but Campbell doesnt have the same problems.

Remember all the physical beasts we drafted over the years that busted? Ill name a few, and then people can jump in and add to the list. THis might be fun, if not also depressing.

I'll start: Alonzo Spellman, David Terrell and Stan Thomas.

[Stinger226]

I want football players, traits are nice but they are more misses than wins. I don't want any part of Stewart that won the combine,no production. Give  me jack Sawyer that beats people up but isn't as fast.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

so true. we went through a bunch of coaches who thought they could coach up physical potential instead of drafting football players.

I say the same thing about Will Campbells arms being too short. Skoronski, for example, had other problems that kept him from being an NFL OT (he was a catcher, not a striker), but Campbell doesnt have the same problems.

Remember all the physical beasts we drafted over the years that busted? Ill name a few, and then people can jump in and add to the list. THis might be fun, if not also depressing.

I'll start: Alonzo Spellman, David Terrell and Stan Thomas.

Jarron Gilbert - the jump out of the pool kid. 

[Stinger226]

9 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Jarron Gilbert - the jump out of the pool kid. 

That was my favorite no talent Bear. 

[AZ54]

9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

yes. his game film is really good, and most draft sites have him as the top rated guard in the draft.

Its one of those things where game film and combine performance dont agree.

Im not saying we need to draft him - thats a big multidimensional question, but he is a better prospect than the combine, and subsequent narratives would lead us to believe.

Hes a little rough in the running game, but he is a beast in pass protection, and he is very strong. It's likely he can get better int he run game since he handles the pass rush so well. He understands leverage, and has real strength, he just needs to learn how to deliver while moving forward and into the second level.

He is 6' 5" and 321, and has huge hands.

NFL.com Mock has him going 17th to CInci, Sporting News has us taking him at #10 (I disagree with Mel Kiper i think), PFF (yuck) has him going 22nd to San Diego, CBS has him going 13th and 26th in their mocks.

None of that means anything other than that it's not insane that he would go in the first round.

You know me, I'm a game film guy. Ive seen some on him, looked pretty good in pass pro. He needs better angles in run blocking but he is STRONG on film.

I hope there are better options for us at #10, because taking a guard that high, you dont want him to have any asterisks around run blocking! If we got him in the late teens or 20s after a trade down, that'd be a different story.

But my main point is just that the combine is just one day.

IMH wanna-be-GM opinion Booker will be very good in the right scheme.  I don't think he's the guy you want to pull and get out in front for a wide zone run.    You can watch his entire workout but if you don't see it with the context of what other players did in those same drills it's kinda meaningless.  Compared to Will Campbell he looked like he's in slow motion.   17th in athleticism score sums it up.   I've got no clue what scheme we'll be running. 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tyler-booker/3200424f-4f05-3216-dcbe-0b23974f3ac7

[Stinger226]

16 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

IMH wanna-be-GM opinion Booker will be very good in the right scheme.  I don't think he's the guy you want to pull and get out in front for a wide zone run.    You can watch his entire workout but if you don't see it with the context of what other players did in those same drills it's kinda meaningless.  Compared to Will Campbell he looked like he's in slow motion.   17th in athleticism score sums it up.   I've got no clue what scheme we'll be running. 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tyler-booker/3200424f-4f05-3216-dcbe-0b23974f3ac7

Definitely players have to fit systems to max out their talent. Membou is a mover.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

IMH wanna-be-GM opinion Booker will be very good in the right scheme.  I don't think he's the guy you want to pull and get out in front for a wide zone run.    You can watch his entire workout but if you don't see it with the context of what other players did in those same drills it's kinda meaningless.  Compared to Will Campbell he looked like he's in slow motion.   17th in athleticism score sums it up.   I've got no clue what scheme we'll be running. 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tyler-booker/3200424f-4f05-3216-dcbe-0b23974f3ac7

I agree. I wasnt saying we should draft him, just that he is a first round pick for someone.

[BearFan PHX]

8 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Jarron Gilbert - the jump out of the pool kid. 

yeah that was impressive as hell and meant nothing on the football field.

Hester (as a DB or WR), Velus Jones...

[BearFan PHX]

bumping temu down