Wild Card Weekend

[adam]

So far it feels a little watered down compared to recent years. 3 games decided by 2 TDs or more. 

WAS seems to be blessed with the best luck. Down by 4, TB fumbles on their own 13 yard line, 4 plays later, WAS scores a TD and never trails again. They won by 3, so that play was the deciding factor and at least a 7 pt swing if not more. 

The best part of this weekend was seeing the GB frauds get sent packing where Love throws for 3 INTs and 0 TDs. Their only TD drive was when Jacobs accounted for 55 of the 78 yards. 

Herbert was just as bad if not worse than Love against HOU. He threw 4 picks and was sacked 4 times.

So Herbert + Love threw more INTs (7) this weekend than Caleb did all season. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, adam said:

So far it feels a little watered down compared to recent years. 3 games decided by 2 TDs or more. 

WAS seems to be blessed with the best luck. Down by 4, TB fumbles on their own 13 yard line, 4 plays later, WAS scores a TD and never trails again. They won by 3, so that play was the deciding factor and at least a 7 pt swing if not more. 

The best part of this weekend was seeing the GB frauds get sent packing where Love throws for 3 INTs and 0 TDs. Their only TD drive was when Jacobs accounted for 55 of the 78 yards. 

Herbert was just as bad if not worse than Love against HOU. He threw 4 picks and was sacked 4 times.

So Herbert + Love threw more INTs (7) this weekend than Caleb did all season. 

We have 1 season of Jayden Daniels and I think we can say he will be as advertised.  As a rookie, he helped his team get to the playoffs and win the wildcard.  Caleb has some huge steps to take to get on the same level imo.  The Bears need to get him a high end HC and offensive mind first and maybe we can put them in the same conversation next year.  

[BearFan PHX]

I haven't watched a lot of Daniels this year, so I could just be regurgitating pre draft talking points here, but I think Daniels is a one read kind of guy. But even if he has developed, or maybe especially because he has developed, I think it's interesting that Kliff Kingsbury isnt getting more love in the coaching searches for various teams?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

28 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I haven't watched a lot of Daniels this year, so I could just be regurgitating pre draft talking points here, but I think Daniels is a one read kind of guy. But even if he has developed, or maybe especially because he has developed, I think it's interesting that Kliff Kingsbury isnt getting more love in the coaching searches for various teams?

Daniels is really good.  He throws a great deep ball, is accurate, and his legs are a weapon. I think teams started to figure him and Kingsbury out in 2nd half of the season (which is the reputation in the league - teams adjust to Kingsbury offenses as season goes on), but there is no knocking what Kliff has done with Jayden. He put him in places where he could leverage his strengths and succeed. That is what a good OC / coach does and he did it.  

Daniels had a better season than Caleb - no denying it.  I sometimes wonder what would have been if Caleb was in Washington and given the same coaching and played with a bit more training wheels.  I don't know in the long-run what approach is better and I truly hope Caleb will have learned from the no training wheel treatment. I think there are a lot of QB's who would get broken by what the Bears did - but I happen to think Caleb has a swagger that will overcome it (similar to how Peyton overcame it).  The inverse is I don't think Andrew Luck every overcame it (he did in terms of how well he played - but I think the shell shock and damage of the hits and lessons he took never went away, hence his early retirement).  

But Kingsbury had his issues in Arizona. He did somethings well but had his issues and I don't know if he commands the lockeroom and the detail aspects. He's basically always been a fast starter and than a slow downhill from there (from his head coaching days in college to head coach in the pro's).  That said - he very well could have learned.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Daniels is really good.  He throws a great deep ball, is accurate, and his legs are a weapon. I think teams started to figure him and Kingsbury out in 2nd half of the season (which is the reputation in the league - teams adjust to Kingsbury offenses as season goes on), but there is no knocking what Kliff has done with Jayden. He put him in places where he could leverage his strengths and succeed. That is what a good OC / coach does and he did it.  

Daniels had a better season than Caleb - no denying it.  I sometimes wonder what would have been if Caleb was in Washington and given the same coaching and played with a bit more training wheels.  I don't know in the long-run what approach is better and I truly hope Caleb will have learned from the no training wheel treatment. I think there are a lot of QB's who would get broken by what the Bears did - but I happen to think Caleb has a swagger that will overcome it (similar to how Peyton overcame it).  The inverse is I don't think Andrew Luck every overcame it (he did in terms of how well he played - but I think the shell shock and damage of the hits and lessons he took never went away, hence his early retirement).  

But Kingsbury had his issues in Arizona. He did somethings well but had his issues and I don't know if he commands the lockeroom and the detail aspects. He's basically always been a fast starter and than a slow downhill from there (from his head coaching days in college to head coach in the pro's).  That said - he very well could have learned.  

By the way - I think one of the things that is very undersold on splitting the field, doing play action, more pre-read throws...is it simplifies things for the QB and helps get their feet and mechanics right. It isn't just the speed of the read, it helps them get into the groove. Bears really never did it and it was just so criminal. And they consistently operated this way - from Waldron to Brown.  

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Daniels is really good.  He throws a great deep ball, is accurate, and his legs are a weapon. I think teams started to figure him and Kingsbury out in 2nd half of the season (which is the reputation in the league - teams adjust to Kingsbury offenses as season goes on), but there is no knocking what Kliff has done with Jayden. He put him in places where he could leverage his strengths and succeed. That is what a good OC / coach does and he did it.  

Daniels had a better season than Caleb - no denying it.  I sometimes wonder what would have been if Caleb was in Washington and given the same coaching and played with a bit more training wheels.  I don't know in the long-run what approach is better and I truly hope Caleb will have learned from the no training wheel treatment. I think there are a lot of QB's who would get broken by what the Bears did - but I happen to think Caleb has a swagger that will overcome it (similar to how Peyton overcame it).  The inverse is I don't think Andrew Luck every overcame it (he did in terms of how well he played - but I think the shell shock and damage of the hits and lessons he took never went away, hence his early retirement).  

But Kingsbury had his issues in Arizona. He did somethings well but had his issues and I don't know if he commands the lockeroom and the detail aspects. He's basically always been a fast starter and than a slow downhill from there (from his head coaching days in college to head coach in the pro's).  That said - he very well could have learned.  

Yes Daniels deep ball accuracy was always good, and Caleb's is questionable for sure.

I feel comfortable talking about Caleb's strengths and weaknesses, but I really don't know Daniels. I also know that Kingsbury flamed out in Arizona, and eventually the league figured out his tricks, although he has new tricks now, and in time they will be figured out too.

And I feel that is true of any scheme. McVey was a great a example of that - he was killing the league until Fangio showed how to beat him.

This is why Im skeptical of a scheme guy being able to dominate on scheme alone, hence my worries about Johnson.

I wasnt so much saying i want Kingsbury for us as just being surprised with all the success Daniels has had why he isnt getting any love, not just from us, but the coaching search this year in general.

[BearFan PHX]

7 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

By the way - I think one of the things that is very undersold on splitting the field, doing play action, more pre-read throws...is it simplifies things for the QB and helps get their feet and mechanics right. It isn't just the speed of the read, it helps them get into the groove. Bears really never did it and it was just so criminal. And they consistently operated this way - from Waldron to Brown.  

right - thats why I think Kingsbury deserves some of the credit, and i dont know how much is Daniels in terms or reading the whole field?

Waldron was in over his head 100%, and Brown had to keep the same playbook, so i dont blame him so much.

That doesnt mean Brown is ready to be OC or HC, but he was handcuffed from the start too.

[adam]

My only concern with Daniels was staying healthy. Unless he adds some meat on that frame, he is at risk for how much he runs. 

If he stays healthy, I feel like he will be a consistent 3,600 / 750 QB

Outside of the Bears game, the most yards he ever threw for was 275. The most combined yards he put up was 354 and that was with 127 rushing yards against ATL. Caleb hit that number 3 times on a terrible team.

Since he is a one-read, half the field QB, I think he is close to his ceiling, maybe a 3,800 / 1K guy, but that is max, which is really good. I just don't think you are going to see many 4K passing seasons from him ever. I could be wrong, but if you watch his games, his stats are saved by a huge chunk play on a busted coverage. 11 games with a 30+ yard pass, with 6 over 50. That is not sustainable. 

Another thing that is not sustainable, winning games on the last play in regulation, they have won their last 6 like that and I believe 8 on the season. Not sustainable. 

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

11 minutes ago, adam said:

My only concern with Daniels was staying healthy. Unless he adds some meat on that frame, he is at risk for how much he runs. 

If he stays healthy, I feel like he will be a consistent 3,600 / 750 QB

Outside of the Bears game, the most yards he ever threw for was 275. The most combined yards he put up was 354 and that was with 127 rushing yards against ATL. Caleb hit that number 3 times on a terrible team.

Since he is a one-read, half the field QB, I think he is close to his ceiling, maybe a 3,800 / 1K guy, but that is max, which is really good. I just don't think you are going to see many 4K passing seasons from him ever. I could be wrong, but if you watch his games, his stats are saved by a huge chunk play on a busted coverage. 11 games with a 30+ yard pass, with 6 over 50. That is not sustainable. 

Another thing that is not sustainable, winning games on the last play in regulation, they have won their last 6 like that and I believe 8 on the season. Not sustainable. 

 

I don't think that is his ceiling.  I think the question is as he gets more and more experience he will get better at the other stuff and have time to do so because his other skill set is so strong.  I think Daniels can be a top 7 QB...by the way I still think Caleb can be as well and I wouldn't put one over the other yet on who will be better. I do think Daniels has shown his floor is real high though...with only major downside being he gets himself destroyed running.  

[AZ54]

If you see a guy at tonight’s game wearing a Butkus jersey you’ll know who it is.  

[AZ54]

Had to go with the Ditka jersey.  

[Stinger226]

Daniels was clearly the best rookie QB this year. Doesn't show very many flaws. Ultimately we will judge QBs on wins and losses. Nobody considered Brady great until he started winning SBs. Caleb needs to correct some things but we have seen enough to project great things but he has to show a lot of progress in year 2 to catch up to Daniels. Fields isn't here anymore because he didn't progress enough last year.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

So in hindsight was the NFC north as good as their combined records reflected?  Both GB and Minny were bounced in the first round by a combined score of 49-19.  
 

And one other funny nugget I saw earlier today.  Minny lost to only two teams all season.  Detroit (twice during the regular season) and the Rams (once during the regular season and again last night).  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

42 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So in hindsight was the NFC north as good as their combined records reflected?  Both GB and Minny were bounced in the first round by a combined score of 49-19.  
 

And one other funny nugget I saw earlier today.  Minny lost to only two teams all season.  Detroit (twice during the regular season) and the Rams (once during the regular season and again last night).  

Could also just be - sometimes you just don't match-up well against a certain team.  That could be what this is.  

[Stinger226]

All those wins aren't flukes but the playoffs are a different breed. The cream rises to the top. Do not overlook LA.

[adam]

Remember GB was 1-5 in the DIV and a blocked FG from 0-6. They should not have been a playoff team. 

For MIN, McVay knows the KOC playbook, because it is his. 

The league watered the playoffs down when they added the 7th team. Only one #2 seed has ever lost a #7 seed, and that was DAL. It feels like there are way too many non-competitive games this year.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 1/14/2025 at 7:03 AM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So in hindsight was the NFC north as good as their combined records reflected?  Both GB and Minny were bounced in the first round by a combined score of 49-19.  
 

Add in Detroit’s second round loss by 14 points and I’m still not sure the NFC north was “all that”.  
 

On 1/15/2025 at 2:34 AM, adam said:

Only one #2 seed has ever lost a #7 seed, and that was DAL. 

Detroit was the #1 and Washington #6. 

[Lucky Luciano]

14 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Add in Detroit’s second round loss by 14 points and I’m still not sure the NFC north was “all that”.  
 

Detroit was the #1 and Washington #6. 

turnovers absolutely killed the lions. it flipped the points. one pick 6 and some int's in the redzone or endzone if i remember correctly. it was a qb's nightmare of a game.

 

[adam]

14 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Add in Detroit’s second round loss by 14 points and I’m still not sure the NFC north was “all that”.  
 

Detroit was the #1 and Washington #6. 

Looking at the paths for each team, WAS had one of the easiest paths to the NFC Championship game. First TB, who was only 5-4 at home, then to DET where they had 16 Day 1 starters out. No other path for a WC team was easier. Good for them.

MIN was always playing by fire over the last few years. No coach or team have won more 1-score games than MIN. So their overall record was inflated. They also had to travel the farthest to play on the road against a team that was finally healthy. So neither of the MIN or DET losses surprise me. Goff shit the bed like he does, and Darnold came back down to earth. I am surprised those games didn't occur more often. 

[adam]

15 hours ago, Lucky Luciano said:

turnovers absolutely killed the lions. it flipped the points. one pick 6 and some int's in the redzone or endzone if i remember correctly. it was a qb's nightmare of a game.

 

Turnovers were the theme of the weekend, DET, BAL, and LAR all lost and had multiple turnovers. DET threw 4 INTs and had a fumble lost.

[Stinger226]

This is a good sign for our future. Potentially we have the best QB in our division. Minnesota GB and Detroit all exposed their QBs. If Caleb can get rid of the ball quicker, he should rise to the top. 

[Stinger226]

The great Roquin Smith had 3 solo Ts and 8 total. No other stat line. Sounds like a Edmunds stat line.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

This is a good sign for our future. Potentially we have the best QB in our division. Minnesota GB and Detroit all exposed their QBs. If Caleb can get rid of the ball quicker, he should rise to the top. 

Yeah, the script flipped pretty quick. Love is way to careless with the ball. Goff folds under pressure, and Darnold may not even play in the division next year. So year, Caleb may be the best QB in the NFC North next year. 

[adam]

9 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

The great Roquin Smith had 3 solo Ts and 8 total. No other stat line. Sounds like a Edmunds stat line.

Roquan is great and overrated at the same time which is hard to do.