adam Posted January 7, 2008 Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 I just wanted to get everyone's opinion on this. Here are the career stats for Manning and Grossman: > G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int Sack Fum FumL Grossman 32 70.9 489 900 54.3 5907 184.6 6.6 31 33 56 18 10 Manning 57 73.4 987 1805 54.7 11385 199.7 6.3 77 64 93 34 12 On just a production standpoint, these two QBs are almost identical, however, Grossman has played a full season once, while Manning has 3 straight. Now even with all those games under his belt, it seems like Manning is where he will always be, an average QB with about a 75 QB Rating. Grossman seems to have more upside, but also has some complete meltdowns. One thing I never even noticed was that Grossman has only 1 career 300 yard game, but 6 career games with 3 or more INTs. How do you guys rate each of these QBs? Would you rather have Manning or Grossman? Another interesting note is looking at the QBs taken two years ago: > G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int Sack Fum FumL Young 30 69.0 422 739 57.1 4745 158.2 6.4 21 30 50 20 6 Leinhart 17 71.2 274 489 56.0 3194 187.9 6.5 13 16 33 8 2 Young has played more, but without his running ability, he is an average to below average QB. Leinhart has been injured, and even when he plays, he has not been that good. So out of all these highly drafted QBs, none are really that good. You can make a case for Young since he brings something else to the game. Leinhart on the other hand has no excuse. He had two top flight receivers (Fitzgerald and Boldin) and a solid RB (James), yet he could not do anything. This reinforces the idea of not drafting a QB in the first round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBearSox Posted January 7, 2008 Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 This reinforces the idea of not drafting a QB in the first round. if JA drafts a QB in the first round, I think many of us will be calling for his head... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted January 7, 2008 Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 Interesting stats...I'm not sure I like any of the 4 guys you mention! Although, I'd be most happy with Young of the group. I'd take Manning over Rex due to less miserable games. I do think that we still should draft a QB if there's a guy there that warrants the pick. Just because we've miffed on our picks and other team have as well..it's no reason not to try. I just don't see guys that will be avaialable in the 1st as worthy. Now, in the 2nd...is another question. I just wanted to get everyone's opinion on this. Here are the career stats for Manning and Grossman: > G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int Sack Fum FumL Grossman 32 70.9 489 900 54.3 5907 184.6 6.6 31 33 56 18 10 Manning 57 73.4 987 1805 54.7 11385 199.7 6.3 77 64 93 34 12 On just a production standpoint, these two QBs are almost identical, however, Grossman has played a full season once, while Manning has 3 straight. Now even with all those games under his belt, it seems like Manning is where he will always be, an average QB with about a 75 QB Rating. Grossman seems to have more upside, but also has some complete meltdowns. One thing I never even noticed was that Grossman has only 1 career 300 yard game, but 6 career games with 3 or more INTs. How do you guys rate each of these QBs? Would you rather have Manning or Grossman? Another interesting note is looking at the QBs taken two years ago: > G QBRat Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD Int Sack Fum FumL Young 30 69.0 422 739 57.1 4745 158.2 6.4 21 30 50 20 6 Leinhart 17 71.2 274 489 56.0 3194 187.9 6.5 13 16 33 8 2 Young has played more, but without his running ability, he is an average to below average QB. Leinhart has been injured, and even when he plays, he has not been that good. So out of all these highly drafted QBs, none are really that good. You can make a case for Young since he brings something else to the game. Leinhart on the other hand has no excuse. He had two top flight receivers (Fitzgerald and Boldin) and a solid RB (James), yet he could not do anything. This reinforces the idea of not drafting a QB in the first round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'TD' Posted January 7, 2008 Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 It really doesn't enforce it in my opinion. Right now, here's a break down of the top 20 rated QB's this season. First round: 8 2nd round: 2 3rd round: 1 4th round: 2 5th round: 0 6th round: 3 Undrafted: 4 You picked bad QB's to enforce your point. Bad, is bad, is bad. That's all there is too it. In the long run, more QB's turn out from the first round then they do any other round. The first round dominates that break down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 It really doesn't enforce it in my opinion. Right now, here's a break down of the top 20 rated QB's this season. First round: 8 2nd round: 2 3rd round: 1 4th round: 2 5th round: 0 6th round: 3 Undrafted: 4 You picked bad QB's to enforce your point. Bad, is bad, is bad. That's all there is too it. In the long run, more QB's turn out from the first round then they do any other round. The first round dominates that break down. I didn't hand pick them. I actually was comparing Manning and Grossman, then threw in Young and Leinhart because they were the first two drafted in 2006. Russell and Quinn did not play enough to compare. If I went another year back, it would've been Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers. Check their stats. They suck too. Actually your point is taken, but it is sort of hollow. Breaking down only the first 20 QB's is also a way to influence your point. You can stop the number wherever it proves your point. Here is the Top 10 rated passers: First round: 3 2nd round: 1 3rd round: 0 4th round: 1 5th round: 0 6th round: 2 Undrafted: 3 These are more of the elite QBs. When you say Top 20, you start getting into the average category. Looking at these numbers, you have just as much of a chance at getting an elite QB undrafted than you do in the 1st round. That is my point. I don't care about drafting the 20th best QB in the league, and I damn sure don't want to do that with the 14th pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 7, 2008 Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 I don't think it is so simple. I don't think it is so simple as saying you have to get a QB in the 1st, or you have to avoid 1st round QBs. The reality is, different teams have found booms and busts at all levels. We have tried just about everything ourselves. We have tried 1st round picks (McNown & Grossman), we have tried trading away a 1st round pick (Mirer), we have tried seasoned veterans (Miller & Griese), we have tries other teams backups (Quinn), we have tried late round picks (Orton, Krenzel, Burris). We have tried pretty much every avenue, and not "hit". To me, when it comes to QB, I don't think you can simply say this way is best, or this way is to be avoided at all costs. To me, it goes beyond this. I think we fail in several different areas. One, we fail in scouting. Two, we fail in developing. It doesn't matter if you get a QB in the 1st or 7th, or in FA or in a trade. If you scouting the coaching are not good enough, that QB is unlikely to do well. Maybe this is a negative view, and it makes me sick to think that way, but it is how I feel. I would love to draft a QB in the 1st round, but i have no faith in our staff to (a) evaluate and draft the right one and ( develop that player. That is why I would prefer to trade for a veteran. Yea, McNabb is who I want. You do not have to worry so much about evaluation or development. He is proven and developed. Basically, just get the stupid coaches out of the way and let him win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 I don't think it is so simple. I don't think it is so simple as saying you have to get a QB in the 1st, or you have to avoid 1st round QBs. The reality is, different teams have found booms and busts at all levels. We have tried just about everything ourselves. We have tried 1st round picks (McNown & Grossman), we have tried trading away a 1st round pick (Mirer), we have tried seasoned veterans (Miller & Griese), we have tries other teams backups (Quinn), we have tried late round picks (Orton, Krenzel, Burris). We have tried pretty much every avenue, and not "hit". To me, when it comes to QB, I don't think you can simply say this way is best, or this way is to be avoided at all costs. To me, it goes beyond this. I think we fail in several different areas. One, we fail in scouting. Two, we fail in developing. It doesn't matter if you get a QB in the 1st or 7th, or in FA or in a trade. If you scouting the coaching are not good enough, that QB is unlikely to do well. Maybe this is a negative view, and it makes me sick to think that way, but it is how I feel. I would love to draft a QB in the 1st round, but i have no faith in our staff to (a) evaluate and draft the right one and ( develop that player. That is why I would prefer to trade for a veteran. Yea, McNabb is who I want. You do not have to worry so much about evaluation or development. He is proven and developed. Basically, just get the stupid coaches out of the way and let him win. I think your right. It is not so black and white. You can probably make your case either way about every position and have information to back it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'TD' Posted January 7, 2008 Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 I didn't hand pick them. I actually was comparing Manning and Grossman, then threw in Young and Leinhart because they were the first two drafted in 2006. Russell and Quinn did not play enough to compare. If I went another year back, it would've been Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers. Check their stats. They suck too. Actually your point is taken, but it is sort of hollow. Breaking down only the first 20 QB's is also a way to influence your point. You can stop the number wherever it proves your point. Here is the Top 10 rated passers: First round: 3 2nd round: 1 3rd round: 0 4th round: 1 5th round: 0 6th round: 2 Undrafted: 3 These are more of the elite QBs. When you say Top 20, you start getting into the average category. Looking at these numbers, you have just as much of a chance at getting an elite QB undrafted than you do in the 1st round. That is my point. I don't care about drafting the 20th best QB in the league, and I damn sure don't want to do that with the 14th pick. An average NFL QB would be a God in Chicago. When is the last time Chicago had a QB in the upper half of the league in QB rating? According to your top 10, undrafted does match first rounders, but every other round combined only has one more then the first. This team needs a QB. It's not going to come in FA. I would also rather stake the Bears future on a first rounder then a Random UFA. The number of UFAs far outweigh the number of first round picks selected. Of course a couple are going to shine through. Maybe I missed the point of your post, tho. You started out by listing Manning and Grossmans career stats. They both suck, ok. You then compare him to 2 second year QB's, "not hand picked". Well let's look at the drafts back to Mannings. Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and JP Losman were drafted the same year as Manning. Big Ben is a Top QB in the league. Rivers has had a nice start to his career. Losman, while not great, has still outperformed Grossman and Manning. If you want to throw in Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers, fine. Smith has been horrible so far on a horrible team. Rodgers had a 100 QB rating this year and looks to be a solid replacement for Farve. Jason Campbell took over for the Skins this year and played well himself compared to Grossman/Manning. Vince Young in his second year is bad as a pure QB. That was sort of expected, but the stuff left out is what made him a probowler. Matt Lienart hasn't came around. That was sort of unexpected, but I'll give you that. However, you left out Jay Cutler. Cutler has an over 88 QB rating so far. I still don't see why that would give the Bears a reason not to draft a QB. You don't want an average QB, but Grossman has been below average. No better then average QB's will be available in FA. You don't want to draft a QB in the first. What's your plan for solving the QB situation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'TD' Posted January 7, 2008 Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 I don't think it is so simple. I don't think it is so simple as saying you have to get a QB in the 1st, or you have to avoid 1st round QBs. The reality is, different teams have found booms and busts at all levels. We have tried just about everything ourselves. We have tried 1st round picks (McNown & Grossman), we have tried trading away a 1st round pick (Mirer), we have tried seasoned veterans (Miller & Griese), we have tries other teams backups (Quinn), we have tried late round picks (Orton, Krenzel, Burris). We have tried pretty much every avenue, and not "hit". To me, when it comes to QB, I don't think you can simply say this way is best, or this way is to be avoided at all costs. To me, it goes beyond this. I think we fail in several different areas. One, we fail in scouting. Two, we fail in developing. It doesn't matter if you get a QB in the 1st or 7th, or in FA or in a trade. If you scouting the coaching are not good enough, that QB is unlikely to do well. Maybe this is a negative view, and it makes me sick to think that way, but it is how I feel. I would love to draft a QB in the 1st round, but i have no faith in our staff to (a) evaluate and draft the right one and ( develop that player. That is why I would prefer to trade for a veteran. Yea, McNabb is who I want. You do not have to worry so much about evaluation or development. He is proven and developed. Basically, just get the stupid coaches out of the way and let him win. I agree, I just don't see McNabb as a possibility. I want to see a plan in place this year. That's why I'm so hard core, draft a QB. I want it one in the first, as it has the highest success rate, but still a big gamble. My personal favorite would be to sign Losman, draft a first round QB, and keep Griese as insurance until it's cap friendly to cut ties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'TD' Posted January 7, 2008 Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 double post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balta1701-A Posted January 7, 2008 Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 My personal favorite would be to sign Losman, draft a first round QB, and keep Griese as insurance until it's cap friendly to cut ties. Losman is not a Free Agent, nor will he be cut. If you want him, you're going to have to trade for him. I can imagine they'd ask for something similar to what they got for McGahee, a 2nd & 3rd round pick or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 What's your plan for solving the QB situation?I don't think there is an easy solution to the QB situation. The only way I would draft a QB at #14 in the Bears current state is if someone fell into our laps. Otherwise, there is no QB worth the 14th pick. I am not trying to say that it is always bad to draft a QB in the first round. There are too many factors to determine that. However, in the Bears current state, and with the current available QB's in the draft, there doesn't seem to be a good fit. My point was more in respect to recent years. For some reason most of the new QBs are not producing as expected. Rivers seems like the only above average QB to be drafted in the first round over the last few years. Now if the draft is your route, who do you pick at #14, Woodson? Ryan and Brohm seem to be slotted to go in the Top 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrunkBomber Posted January 7, 2008 Report Share Posted January 7, 2008 Why dont we try fixing the offensive line, running game and try getting some WRs that can catch before we go on a witch hunt looking for a qb. Eli has a top 3 WR talent wise, a monster running game and one of the best receiving tight ends in the game not to mention a very good offensive line. To compare his situation to anyone on our team is ridiculous. Why do you think Anderson blew up this year? Top wr, great receiving tight end, good running game and very good offensive line. If you flip flopped Grossman and Eli's situations Eli would be out of the league by now. Its stupid to talk about getting a new qb in the first round. All you would be doing is setting him up to fail. Fix the other offensive problems before you go and waste a first round pick on a qb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bradjock Posted January 8, 2008 Report Share Posted January 8, 2008 You started out by listing Manning and Grossmans career stats. They both suck, ok. You then compare him to 2 second year QB's, "not hand picked". Well let's look at the drafts back to Mannings. Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and JP Losman were drafted the same year as Manning. Big Ben is a Top QB in the league. Rivers has had a nice start to his career. Losman, while not great, has still outperformed Grossman and Manning. If you want to throw in Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers, fine. Smith has been horrible so far on a horrible team. Rodgers had a 100 QB rating this year and looks to be a solid replacement for Farve. Jason Campbell took over for the Skins this year and played well himself compared to Grossman/Manning. Vince Young in his second year is bad as a pure QB. That was sort of expected, but the stuff left out is what made him a probowler. Matt Lienart hasn't came around. That was sort of unexpected, but I'll give you that. However, you left out Jay Cutler. Cutler has an over 88 QB rating so far. I still don't see why that would give the Bears a reason not to draft a QB. You don't want an average QB, but Grossman has been below average. No better then average QB's will be available in FA. You don't want to draft a QB in the first. What's your plan for solving the QB situation? You're REALLY arguing against yourself. Roethlisberger been an average quarterback on a great team with good blocking, good WR's, and a great running game. He was pretty bad in the Super Bowl, going something like 7 for 17 with no touchdowns. Yet because he won a Super Bowl, he gets "great" status. The guys you mentioned above are really just all crappy, and it's tough to distinguish which one is better then the other. Cutler's had a good quarterback rating, but on bad teams and Denver hasn't made the playoffs with him in command. If you draft a QB in round one, those guys damn near all get to play no matter how bad they are. San Fran sucks, and there's not much they can do because they made Alex Smith the #1 and paid him a ton of dough. When you draft a guy high and they are bad, it sets your franchise back. If you draft a bad QB high, it sets your franchise back for years. (like drafting Cedric only much worse.) Don't you want to win now? If we draft a QB in round one, it likely means rebuilding. No thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'TD' Posted January 8, 2008 Report Share Posted January 8, 2008 You're REALLY arguing against yourself. Roethlisberger been an average quarterback on a great team with good blocking, good WR's, and a great running game. He was pretty bad in the Super Bowl, going something like 7 for 17 with no touchdowns. Yet because he won a Super Bowl, he gets "great" status. The guys you mentioned above are really just all crappy, and it's tough to distinguish which one is better then the other. Cutler's had a good quarterback rating, but on bad teams and Denver hasn't made the playoffs with him in command. Roethlisberger had the second highest QB rating this season(104.1). He was third in the league with 32 TD's, and only had 12 int's. That's a little better then average imo. He had arguably the best season at QB this year next to Tom Brady. Jay Cutler didn't lead his team to the play offs this year. Denver's D let up over 400 points this season(2nd worse in the AFC). His only other year in the league, they missed it but he was a rookie, and played in the last 5 games. He's still, to the best of my knowledge, had a higher QB rating than anyone in bears history. If you draft a QB in round one, those guys damn near all get to play no matter how bad they are. San Fran sucks, and there's not much they can do because they made Alex Smith the #1 and paid him a ton of dough. When you draft a guy high and they are bad, it sets your franchise back. If you draft a bad QB high, it sets your franchise back for years. (like drafting Cedric only much worse.) Don't you want to win now? If we draft a QB in round one, it likely means rebuilding. No thanks. That's exactly what Grossman has did with this team, held it hostage. It's time to stop having him hold the team back with is poor play, and move to the next experiment. Yea, I want to win now. I also want to win in the future. There's just no QB available in FA that will guarantee a win now situation. That's why I want to get someone to win in the future, and find someone that can get us by until then. Had San Fran not drafted a QB based soley on the combine, they may not be in the position they are in. They would still suck, as the rest of their team does, but have something at QB in Rodgers. If Woodson or some how Brohm drops, I think you have to draft one of the guys at 14. It's not likely Brohm will drop, but no one thought Quinn would drop as much as he did last year. I think Woodson wil be there for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDaddy Posted January 8, 2008 Report Share Posted January 8, 2008 When this football team decides to STOP HIRING DEFENSIVE COORDINATORS as Head Coaches and starts hiring OCs or guys who at least have HC experience, then you will start to see better offensive player development. Truth is though that Turner should be much better at it than he has been and that is why he really should NOT be given the opportunity to return. The last good QB we drafted was McMahon and Ditka was in charge of that draft. To think that we pay QB coaches and then continue to watch as our QBs throw off their back foot, or don't step up in the pocket, can't read a blitz or have accuracy issues is again an indictment against the HC and executive management. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.