#10 Mock Draft Selection

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I have seen people talking about CLE potentially wanting to move back into the 1st to take Sanders, especially if they take Hunter at #2 and Sanders is still there at #10, after NO at #9.  

The potential trade would be #10 for #33, #67, and a 2026 1st.

Why would CLE do it? They need a QB on a rookie deal, can't pass up on a generational talent like Hunter, and they just signed Garrett to a huge deal. They are essentially getting their 2026 1st rounder a year early, and the premium for that is #33 and #67.

Why would CHI do it? They would only od it if a blue-chipper doesn't fall to them at #10. The hope is they won't be in the top 10 anymore anytime soon. They would then have #33, #39, #41, #67, and #72 in the 2025 draft AND 2x 1st rounders in 2026. I would assume they could also trade back into the first if they wanted to OR even trade back from #33 because those first few picks always seems to be traded on Day 2. 

I can see the merit behind CLE wanting to get Sanders late in the 1st Rd.  Why would they trade so high all the way to #10 when they likely just need to get ahead of the Steelers who sit at 21?    Plus there's no way I'd want to trade back that far. 

My ideal trade target is Dallas at 12 because they want to ensure they get Jeanty.   I want an extra top 100 pick.   

Using Rich Hill trade chart:   swapping 10 with 12 is 25pts.   DAL 76 pick is worth 61pts.  We must cover the gap of 36pts which is mostly done by swapping picks in Rds 2 and then giving them our 5th Rd pick.  

39 to 44 = 18pts.  

148 = 13pts

That's just 31pts in exchange so it's 5pts in our favor but for the best RB talent since Saquon, Jerry takes the deal.  Worst case we toss in a 6th next year to top it off.  

CHI gets:   12, 41, 44, 72, and 76

DAL gets:  10, 39, and 148.

Now I have 5 picks in the top 100 and with Dal taking Jeanty and just SF between us and our first pick we know with very high confidence who remains on the board when we pick.  I just scanned 6 mocks on NFL.com and most have SF drafting defense at 11 (edge or LB) or Will Campbell/Membou to fix LG.     

 

[adam]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I can see the merit behind CLE wanting to get Sanders late in the 1st Rd.  Why would they trade so high all the way to #10 when they likely just need to get ahead of the Steelers who sit at 21?    Plus there's no way I'd want to trade back that far. 

My ideal trade target is Dallas at 12 because they want to ensure they get Jeanty.   I want an extra top 100 pick.   

Using Rich Hill trade chart:   swapping 10 with 12 is 25pts.   DAL 76 pick is worth 61pts.  We must cover the gap of 36pts which is mostly done by swapping picks in Rds 2 and then giving them our 5th Rd pick.  

39 to 44 = 18pts.  

148 = 13pts

That's just 31pts in exchange so it's 5pts in our favor but for the best RB talent since Saquon, Jerry takes the deal.  Worst case we toss in a 6th next year to top it off.  

CHI gets:   12, 41, 44, 72, and 76

DAL gets:  10, 39, and 148.

Now I have 5 picks in the top 100 and with Dal taking Jeanty and just SF between us and our first pick we know with very high confidence who remains on the board when we pick.  I just scanned 6 mocks on NFL.com and most have SF drafting defense at 11 (edge or LB) or Will Campbell/Membou to fix LG.     

I feel like Jeanty is one of the guys that Poles wouldn't trade away if he is sitting there at 10. For me it feels like Graham, Jeanty, Warren and Campbell are the 4 guys that Poles would pick if they were there at 10. My assumption is only one will be available. 

[BearFan PHX]

33 minutes ago, adam said:

I feel like Jeanty is one of the guys that Poles wouldn't trade away if he is sitting there at 10. For me it feels like Graham, Jeanty, Warren and Campbell are the 4 guys that Poles would pick if they were there at 10. My assumption is only one will be available. 

I dunno how the Bears evaluate Campbell. Some have him really highly rated, others don't. Even forgetting about his arms, his film looks bad to me. I definitely prefer Banks. So I wonder where the Bears are on those two.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

29 minutes ago, adam said:

I feel like Jeanty is one of the guys that Poles wouldn't trade away if he is sitting there at 10. For me it feels like Graham, Jeanty, Warren and Campbell are the 4 guys that Poles would pick if they were there at 10. My assumption is only one will be available. 

Campbell or Jentry would be a dream.  Graham, I feel like like he is light for how we want to be up front. And i'd rather get Egbuka or Burden at WR over TE.

[dawhizz]

18 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dunno how the Bears evaluate Campbell. Some have him really highly rated, others don't. Even forgetting about his arms, his film looks bad to me. I definitely prefer Banks. So I wonder where the Bears are on those two.

I have to think the Darnell Wright pick is instructive - Poles could have taken Skoronski at 6’4” 313 with 32” arms but great performer at LT in college, but he opted for Darnell Wright at 6’5” 333 with close to 34” arms. If that holds Campbell seems too much like Skoronski and I think Poles would prefer Banks. Or maybe they needed a player more like Wright than and now want one more like Campbell. Who’s to say?

[BearFan PHX]

15 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

I have to think the Darnell Wright pick is instructive - Poles could have taken Skoronski at 6’4” 313 with 32” arms but great performer at LT in college, but he opted for Darnell Wright at 6’5” 333 with close to 34” arms. If that holds Campbell seems too much like Skoronski and I think Poles would prefer Banks. Or maybe they needed a player more like Wright than and now want one more like Campbell. Who’s to say?

I guess, but I think we are making too much about the arms narrative. I thought Skoronski was a terrible OT. He was a catcher, he didnt meet contact until it was on him. I dont remember what my other concerns were at the time, but i didnt want any part of him, and i thought Wright was the clear choice over Skoronski. Because of the tape! Measurables only say so much.

Now I get that Campbell has short arms too, and maybe that's a problem. But he also plays too high, is too slow to counter outside moves and worse yet, is a terrible handfighter that gets beat INSIDE. That should never happen.

I cant predict what Campbell could become with NFL coaching. I wont sit here and say that I have a crystal ball and Campbell will never be an NFL LT, but I do believe that right now, he is a weak candidate to be one.

If the Bears take him, I will of course defer to their better experience and information on him. And Ill root for him to prove me wrong. Im not saying I know he will fail to the level that I knew Fields sucked, or Eberflus sucked. Those things i KNEW once I knew them, because they were proven on NFL fields. Campbell is not at that point, and I am not as sure about his shortcomings as i was about those other two (and Charles Leno!)

But if it were me, and i think we are all glad it isnt LOL, I would take Banks over Campbell all day long. Depending on how I felt about the medical possibilities, I might take Simmons over Campbell, and I think I like Ersery better too. Theres a guy from W&M that looks intriguing and there are others too for 2nd or 3rd round consideration.

The only player I like less than Campbell as our LT is Membou! Membou is another narrative driven prospect. He was nowhere until his combine numbers. The so called underwear olympics. LOL

Banks looks good to me, i hope he is there at 10.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I guess, but I think we are making too much about the arms narrative. I thought Skoronski was a terrible OT. He was a catcher, he didnt meet contact until it was on him. I dont remember what my other concerns were at the time, but i didnt want any part of him, and i thought Wright was the clear choice over Skoronski. Because of the tape! Measurables only say so much.

Now I get that Campbell has short arms too, and maybe that's a problem. But he also plays too high, is too slow to counter outside moves and worse yet, is a terrible handfighter that gets beat INSIDE. That should never happen.

I cant predict what Campbell could become with NFL coaching. I wont sit here and say that I have a crystal ball and Campbell will never be an NFL LT, but I do believe that right now, he is a weak candidate to be one.

If the Bears take him, I will of course defer to their better experience and information on him. And Ill root for him to prove me wrong. Im not saying I know he will fail to the level that I knew Fields sucked, or Eberflus sucked. Those things i KNEW once I knew them, because they were proven on NFL fields. Campbell is not at that point, and I am not as sure about his shortcomings as i was about those other two (and Charles Leno!)

But if it were me, and i think we are all glad it isnt LOL, I would take Banks over Campbell all day long. Depending on how I felt about the medical possibilities, I might take Simmons over Campbell, and I think I like Ersery better too. Theres a guy from W&M that looks intriguing and there are others too for 2nd or 3rd round consideration.

The only player I like less than Campbell as our LT is Membou! Membou is another narrative driven prospect. He was nowhere until his combine numbers. The so called underwear olympics. LOL

Banks looks good to me, i hope he is there at 10.

Simmons is a supposedly catcher, so I'm hesitant and he's hurt.

Banks I'm good with 

Campbell is rated high for some reason. I can't discount him yet and i haven't watched any tape either 

[BearFan PHX]

31 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Simmons is a supposedly catcher, so I'm hesitant and he's hurt.

Banks I'm good with 

Campbell is rated high for some reason. I can't discount him yet and i haven't watched any tape either 

well Campbell only gave up 4 sacks over 3 years, but he also had extremely mobile QBs.

Arms aside he is an imposing specimen, and he has good footwork. He is a first round OL, but i dont think he will make it as an NFL Left Tackle, and like Ive said, I am not sure of that, but to my eyes he looks like he belongs around pick 20 or something? He plays too high, and loses handfighting, so he's gonna need some coaching for sure. But can I say that Roushar wont turn him into a pro Bowler? Of course I cant say that I know that. I just wouldnt personally bet on it - based on Campbell not Roushar Ive watched a bunch of film on Campbell now, and it just doesnt look like a #10 LT ought to. Hes not smooth, and dominant. It doesnt look like he belongs there in the NFL to me.

Banks on the other hand does look smooth. He does look dominant. He looks the part to my eye.

Simmons, if he didnt have the medical issues looks amazing to me. He is very fluid and looks the part. But the medical is a BIG question.

Banks isnt perfect, but he'd be my pick. And there are others who are not first rounders per se who Id be happy with, but Membou is NOT one of them for a bunch of reasons. He takes plays off, his heart isnt in it, hes never played the left side and he is undersized.

[AZ54]

42 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

well Campbell only gave up 4 sacks over 3 years, but he also had extremely mobile QBs.

Arms aside he is an imposing specimen, and he has good footwork. He is a first round OL, but i dont think he will make it as an NFL Left Tackle, and like Ive said, I am not sure of that, but to my eyes he looks like he belongs around pick 20 or something? He plays too high, and loses handfighting, so he's gonna need some coaching for sure. But can I say that Roushar wont turn him into a pro Bowler? Of course I cant say that I know that. I just wouldnt personally bet on it - based on Campbell not Roushar Ive watched a bunch of film on Campbell now, and it just doesnt look like a #10 LT ought to. Hes not smooth, and dominant. It doesnt look like he belongs there in the NFL to me.

Banks on the other hand does look smooth. He does look dominant. He looks the part to my eye.

Simmons, if he didnt have the medical issues looks amazing to me. He is very fluid and looks the part. But the medical is a BIG question.

Banks isnt perfect, but he'd be my pick. And there are others who are not first rounders per se who Id be happy with, but Membou is NOT one of them for a bunch of reasons. He takes plays off, his heart isnt in it, hes never played the left side and he is undersized.

Membou is #1 on Kyle Long's ranking.  Banks #2.  Just interesting to get his perspective on players.  FWIW he's iffy on Campbell.  

 

[Stinger226]

We are not in contention for a SB, so we are not trading a bunch of picks for one player. The strength of the draft ( many opinions) is 15-50. So the more picks we have in that range the better to build the roster. I also believe we have coaches that can actually develop players. So later picks may be useful 2 to 3 years from now. 

I would say unless Mason Graham or Carter are available Poles will try to trade back for more picks. I don't think Campbell, Warren or Jeanty are our target. 

 

[BearFan PHX]

23 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Membou is #1 on Kyle Long's ranking.  Banks #2.  Just interesting to get his perspective on players.  FWIW he's iffy on Campbell.  

 

That's really interesting. I am more sure that Membou is a bad choice than I am about Campbell.

DIfference of opinion makes the world go around i suppose...

[AZ54]

56 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

We are not in contention for a SB, so we are not trading a bunch of picks for one player. The strength of the draft ( many opinions) is 15-50. So the more picks we have in that range the better to build the roster. I also believe we have coaches that can actually develop players. So later picks may be useful 2 to 3 years from now. 

I would say unless Mason Graham or Carter are available Poles will try to trade back for more picks. I don't think Campbell, Warren or Jeanty are our target. 

 

Despite the depth of the draft 15-50 there are still legit blue chip players in this draft.  Those are your real difference makers on game day if you can get one.  Mason Graham is better than Kenneth Grant if for no other reason because he has better endurance and you'll get more snaps out of him on game day, especially into the 4th quarter.  We're sitting at 10 and there aren't 10 blue chips in this draft but someone is going to take a non-blue chip QB ahead of us.  There is usually another surprise too...ala Penix last year.    

Who the true blue chips are is always open for debate.  One thing was clear last year:  We had Rome ranked as one of them and were very happy when he fell to us.     

We need to see if we can get an elite talent but if we go with the trade down so someone else can get that elite talent the compensation should be set accordingly.  

[dawhizz]

We should also remember that the number of first round grades for a team is not 32. If heard draft people who have between 14 and 18 first round draft grades on players this year. If the Bears have a similar number and they cut out a few positions they won’t be drafting in the first round anyway, that may limit both their potential pool at 10 and how far down they would be willing to trade down. My personal dream is to trade back just a few spots, still stay in the range of one of those first round players, and get an extra 3rd and 4th from someone. We already have two 2nds so that’s not something we might not necessarily need to get back, plus allowing the team we are trading with to keep their 2nd might make them more inclined to trade. Then do something along these lines:

1 - James Pearce, DE, Tennessee

2a - Aireonte Ersery, OT, Minnesota 

2b - Treyveon Henderson, RB, Ohio State

3a - Andrew Mukuba, S, Texas

3b - Savion Williams, WR, TCU

4 - JJ Pegues, DT, Mississippi 

5 - Joshua Gray, OL, Oregon State 

7a - CJ Dippre, TE, Alabama 

7b - Nick Martin, LB, Oklahoma State 

[BearFan PHX]

It's just two plays, so it isn't proof of anything, but i just saw this on X, and thought I'd share it because it is indicative of the kind of thing I saw a lot of of on Will Campbell's tape.

He is a horrible handfighter, and got destroyed here twice. Neither was a sack, so his stat still looks clean for the writers who just look at the numbers, but the tape tells another story.
 

 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

It's just two plays, so it isn't proof of anything, but i just saw this on X, and thought I'd share it because it is indicative of the kind of thing I saw a lot of of on Will Campbell's tape.

He is a horrible handfighter, and got destroyed here twice. Neither was a sack, so his stat still looks clean for the writers who just look at the numbers, but the tape tells another story.
 

 

You can find tape on All pro players that look bad sometimes, it's always the overall play that matters. I look at penalties and pressures. It will show consistency. We can all look at tape and analyze players but the scouts see more data, every snap and  it's their judgement that will determine who we pick. Drafting is a flawed process.

 

 

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

You can find tape on All pro players that look bad sometimes, it's always the overall play that matters. I look at penalties and pressures. It will show consistency. We can all look at tape and analyze players but the scouts see more data, every snap and  it's their judgement that will determine who we pick. Drafting is a flawed process.

 

 

  These clips of Campbell are not an anomaly because I've found plenty of them.  However, I'd be very happy if someone like NE drafted Campbell ahead of us.  If we're going to add a LT it'll be Membou or Banks.  Both have questions around their fit at LT. 

The only way for us to truly get insight into the Bears draft board as well as team belief on Braxton/Kiran is if Jeanty, Campbell, Membou, Banks, and I'll add DT Nolen are all available at 10.  I think one of Membou or Campbell go before 10.   Our entire draft pivots off the LT question.  

 

[adam]

Here is the PFF Draft Guide, so big, I had to split it in two for those that don't have access to it.

2025 RELEASE PFF DRAFT GUIDE (p1).pdf

[adam]

Part 2

2025 RELEASE PFF DRAFT GUIDE (p2).pdf

[adam]

Just found out there is a 125MB file attachment limit for each user. 

[adam]

The more this goes on, the only 3 players that may be available at 10 that I think Poles would select are Campbell, Jeanty, and Warren. I think he looks to trade down if all 3 of those guys are gone. This is assuming Carter, Hunter, and Graham are gone too.

[BearFan PHX]

11 minutes ago, adam said:

The more this goes on, the only 3 players that may be available at 10 that I think Poles would select are Campbell, Jeanty, and Warren. I think he looks to trade down if all 3 of those guys are gone. This is assuming Carter, Hunter, and Graham are gone too.

I think you have to add Banks to that list. If he is available at 10, I think he is the pick.

[Stinger226]

I have heard numbous NFL scouts say there are 7 blue chip players in the Draft. Hunter, Carter, Graham, Warren, Jeanty, Walker, QB Ward. If any of those are there ( not Ward), I think we take them. 

Chances are none will be there of which we will trade back if possible. If we can't trade back, I think it will be Kenneth Grant. Billings contract will be coming due and we don't have quality behind him. Pierce will be next inline as Allen stated he wants speed on defense. 

With #10 you have to add a blue chip player. 

The first pick determines the next 3 picks. .

Johnson talked about speed and  weapons, that's Jeanty, Warren and Golden on the offensive side. Defensively Walker, Pierce, Carter fit that mold early.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Ben Johnson brought in a new metric for the Bears to use when grading players, EPA.  Extra Points Added. 

I heard they see 3 tiers.  1-10, 11-27, 28-70. 

Poles has his premiere position philosophy for drafting, but he hasn't reached to fill that either since GM.  His order, QB, OT, DE, CB.  

[AZ54]

On 4/1/2025 at 2:57 PM, BearFan PHX said:

I think you have to add Banks to that list. If he is available at 10, I think he is the pick.

I think Banks would be a much better option at 10 than any of the other 3.  

[Stinger226]

7 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I think Banks would be a much better option at 10 than any of the other 3.  

I think they think they have LT covered with the upgrade of the IOL. They will bring in a Conerly or Grant to develop behind Braxton and Kiran but not at 10. They are drafting speed somewhere first.