#10 Mock Draft Selection

[BearFan PHX]

OK, Im gonna go on the record with this prediction:

If Banks is there at pick 10, we will take him.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

21 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I think they think they have LT covered with the upgrade of the IOL. They will bring in a Conerly or Grant to develop behind Braxton and Kiran but not at 10. They are drafting speed somewhere first.

The 3 options are Jentry, Warren, or Banks, imo.  Jentry and Warren are exra point adds... Banks increases every offensive players EPA.  

If they feel another RB or TE with a close EPA can be had later, they take Banks.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

The 3 options are Jentry, Warren, or Banks, imo.  Jentry and Warren are exra point adds... Banks increases every offensive players EPA.  

If they feel another RB or TE with a close EPA can be had later, they take Banks.

I might add the surprise name of WR Tetairoa McMillan to that list too. I could imagine Johnson doing amazing things with him. I wont predict it, but he is a dark horse, and has enough skill to make the list I think.

And of course I assume we are leaving guys like Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter out of the conversation because they will never be there at 10...

Your point about the depth of the draft is a good one too, pointing back to Banks.

That's also part of why I think if Banks is there at 10, we will take him. Im on the record with this one firm prediction now. If Im wrong about it, then you all can call me out later! If Banks is gone though, then Im off the hook LOL

[BearFan PHX]

Did a bunch of Mock Drafts tonight. Got increasingly interested in the bad news / reach for an OT at 10 scenarios. These would represent worst case scenarios if you HAD to have an OT at 10, and you still need a feature back.

#10 OL - reach for Ersery or Conerly (if Banks isn't available)

#39 Best S available of: S Nick Emmanwori, S Malakai Starks, S Xavier Watts
       ***OR***
       Best DL available, dont expect big names to fall for this scenario
      ***OR***
      Best WR remaining, Thinking WR Jack Bech?

#41 HB - take the best remaining HB of: Omarion Hampton, Kaleb Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson etc

HB is more important than S, but with New Orleans at #40, and more HBs than safeties here, I took the HB 41st instead of 39th

#72 Best WR, DL, S whatever position wasnt taken at 41

#148 TE Oronde Gadsden

So if you had to take an OL, youd still have
your OT
a good pick of HBs not named Jeanty
you'd add someone significant to the defense, probably at safety or DT
pick up a WR, DL or S
and grab a good TE2

If you wait until round 2 for OT, youre hoping on an inferior developmental project, or betting the farm that Ersery or Conerly will drop, or that Grant or someone will be good enough. Those are both too risky bets to make for me, which brought me here.

If you start with OT, even if you "reach" you still get someone real, a mid to late first round talent, and still do FINE on HB, and add needed weapons.

So I think we really need to take an OT at 10.

If it's Banks it's easy, but if you go with another position, you are screwed at OT by round 2. All other positions' depth falls right to our second round picks to do what we need at HB and still add one more impact player

Im not saying this is ideal, Im saying this way we dont end up screwed at OL or HB, and can still address DL or S, and add a couple pieces.

In other words, there is no safe plan if you dont take an OT at 10, they drop off faster than what we need by round 2 unless we get really lucky.

Try this approach on mock drafts and see if you dont end up with something that works. And I think it will work int he real draft where better players arent falling as much as in the simulators.

This also implies that we could trade down from 10, but not too far so we can still get Ersery or Conerly. If Banks isnt available, and someone wants to trade up, we should do that, and still grab an OT first.
 

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

The 3 options are Jentry, Warren, or Banks, imo.  Jentry and Warren are exra point adds... Banks increases every offensive players EPA.  

If they feel another RB or TE with a close EPA can be had later, they take Banks.

When did Banks become the top LT prospect after Campbell if he plays LT? You may be right because no one has any idea on teams are rating the OL but Campbell and Membou will be the first 2 OL off the board if I'm reading the tealeafs. I keep seeing the blue chip players are Hunter, Carter, Walker, Jeanty, Graham and Warren everywhere. Add two QBs that counts 8 players. I don't see Banks being drafted until 20 to 30. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

When did Banks become the top LT prospect after Campbell if he plays LT? You may be right because no one has any idea on teams are rating the OL but Campbell and Membou will be the first 2 OL off the board if I'm reading the tealeafs. I keep seeing the blue chip players are Hunter, Carter, Walker, Jeanty, Graham and Warren everywhere. Add two QBs that counts 8 players. I don't see Banks being drafted until 20 to 30. 

Banks started off as the top LT, and LT is a premiere position that many GMs consider over positions like RB, TE, LB. 

After his combine measurements, his value jumped with his extra inch in height. His athletic ability and technique project him as a good fit for zone systems, which would fit the Bears.  His skills project him as a probowl caliber player at G or T.  Good chance he is not there at 10 and Campbell also could be off the board. 

With LT, they have to compare to Braxton and Kiran.  Is Banks or the guys we have a talent for 4 years or 8-10?

[adam]

14 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

OK, Im gonna go on the record with this prediction:

If Banks is there at pick 10, we will take him.

What would your draft board look like for the potential players available at #10? Assuming Hunter, Carter and Graham are the only positional players that for sure won't make it to 10, out of these guys, how would you rank them on your board for the Bears?

McMillan, WR
Jeanty, RB
Campbell, OL
Warren, TE
Barron, CB
Starks, S
Membou, OL
Green, Edge
Johnson, CB
Burden, WR
Pearce Jr, Edge
Grant, DL
Simmons, OL
Banks, OL

 

[adam]

On 4/1/2025 at 4:57 PM, BearFan PHX said:

I think you have to add Banks to that list. If he is available at 10, I think he is the pick.

Yeah, if he can't find a trade partner, I think he just hits the trenches, OL, DL, or Edge. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

48 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Banks started off as the top LT, and LT is a premiere position that many GMs consider over positions like RB, TE, LB. 

After his combine measurements, his value jumped with his extra inch in height. His athletic ability and technique project him as a good fit for zone systems, which would fit the Bears.  His skills project him as a probowl caliber player at G or T.  Good chance he is not there at 10 and Campbell also could be off the board. 

With LT, they have to compare to Braxton and Kiran.  Is Banks or the guys we have a talent for 4 years or 8-10?

Campbell was the top LT all season. He did lose some shine late in the season and over the combine. Reality is this is a draft where there may not be any real good LT prospect…which in my mind means, don’t reach for a need. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

13 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Campbell was the top LT all season. He did lose some shine late in the season and over the combine. Reality is this is a draft where there may not be any real good LT prospect…which in my mind means, don’t reach for a need. 

I guess it depends on which sites you use.  He is graded highest now and when I started my draft dreamwork, I've mentioned Banks as a target because he was rated 1 or 2 then.  Maybe I preferred his skill set to Campbell's then. That was 8 months or more ago.

[dawhizz]

Based on all the stuff I’ve seen, I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Banks is taken before 10. I think Melbourne and probably Campbell are ahead of him on most boards and no way 3 OTs go in the top 9 picks. 

[BearFan PHX]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

When did Banks become the top LT prospect after Campbell if he plays LT? You may be right because no one has any idea on teams are rating the OL but Campbell and Membou will be the first 2 OL off the board if I'm reading the tealeafs. I keep seeing the blue chip players are Hunter, Carter, Walker, Jeanty, Graham and Warren everywhere. Add two QBs that counts 8 players. I don't see Banks being drafted until 20 to 30. 

I think this is just what the PFF draft simulator says. A lot of mock drafts have Banks going before we even pick.

I think he is the #1 OT in the draft, and the only three I want are Banks, Ersery or Conerly.

The only site that has the players ranked close to right in my view is NFLDraftBuzz. They mock draft simulator is crazy though, Travis Hunter, who they have correctly ranked at #1, falls past 10 ll the time. So Im not saying the simulator is great, but the overall rankings are good and are in line with what Ive seen on film. And they have Banks as the highest rated OT, at #7 overall.

Membou is all smoke and mirrors, and Campbell has some serious red flags in my view, but draftbuzz has Campbell at #9 and Membou at #11 if that helps you to trust them. I wouldnt touch Membou or Campbell as a LT at all.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think this is just what the PFF draft simulator says. A lot of mock drafts have Banks going before we even pick.

I think he is the #1 OT in the draft, and the only three I want are Banks, Ersery or Conerly.

The only site that has the players ranked close to right in my view is NFLDraftBuzz. They mock draft simulator is crazy though, Travis Hunter, who they have correctly ranked at #1, falls past 10 ll the time. So Im not saying the simulator is great, but the overall rankings are good and are in line with what Ive seen on film. And they have Banks as the highest rated OT, at #7 overall.

Membou is all smoke and mirrors, and Campbell has some serious red flags in my view, but draftbuzz has Campbell at #9 and Membou at #11 if that helps you to trust them. I wouldnt touch Membou or Campbell as a LT at all.

I don't think either of them are LTs , Banks may be. To say Membou is smoke and mirrors means you haven't watched much tape on his play. The reason his rise from nowhere to maybe top 15 is because his tape is great. GMs and coaches say tape is 80% of grade on players, that's why he's so high.

The only simulator I use is PFN, it seems ( to me) to be the most realistic. I rely more on opinions from Dane Brugler, Matt Miller and Daniel Jeremiah than any simulator anyway. My ego just isn't big enough to think I'm smarter than people that put 1000 of hours in scouting players. You have to trust somebody and then form an opinion. 

I would have no problem if we drafted any of those 3 OTs that would mean the bears think that player is the Best choice. That's all that matters.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think this is just what the PFF draft simulator says. A lot of mock drafts have Banks going before we even pick.

I think he is the #1 OT in the draft, and the only three I want are Banks, Ersery or Conerly.

The only site that has the players ranked close to right in my view is NFLDraftBuzz. They mock draft simulator is crazy though, Travis Hunter, who they have correctly ranked at #1, falls past 10 ll the time. So Im not saying the simulator is great, but the overall rankings are good and are in line with what Ive seen on film. And they have Banks as the highest rated OT, at #7 overall.

Membou is all smoke and mirrors, and Campbell has some serious red flags in my view, but draftbuzz has Campbell at #9 and Membou at #11 if that helps you to trust them. I wouldnt touch Membou or Campbell as a LT at all.

Membou is similar to Darnell Wright. He is going to be a very good RT for a long time - but won’t be an LT. 

Most of the higher ranked LTs all profile more as guards quite frankly and anyone that picks them is going to first see if they can stick at LT before shifting them. 
 

Simmons is about only one I’ve seen regularly as a true LT but obviously has the injury concerns and isn’t expected to go top 10. 
 

Campbell is by far the consensus #1 tackle prospect from the more regarded analyst. Whether they are right or not - who knows - but it’s these random outlets who have some of the other guys ahead of him. He was consensus top tackle all season. I’d be shocked if he is on board at 10 and I expect another tackle is also gone before Bears pick - whether Banks or Membou. 
 

Id argue in many drafts they would all be in the 15-30 range as all the tackles have more material flaws than usual. 

[Stinger226]

13 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Membou is similar to Darnell Wright. He is going to be a very good RT for a long time - but won’t be an LT. 

Most of the higher ranked LTs all profile more as guards quite frankly and anyone that picks them is going to first see if they can stick at LT before shifting them. 
 

Simmons is about only one I’ve seen regularly as a true LT but obviously has the injury concerns and isn’t expected to go top 10. 
 

Campbell is by far the consensus #1 tackle prospect from the more regarded analyst. Whether they are right or not - who knows - but it’s these random outlets who have some of the other guys ahead of him. He was consensus top tackle all season. I’d be shocked if he is on board at 10 and I expect another tackle is also gone before Bears pick - whether Banks or Membou. 
 

Id argue in many drafts they would all be in the 15-30 range as all the tackles have more material flaws than usual. 

Agree with all that, just because they are the best OTs this year doesn't mean they compare to a Joe Alt type. That doesn't mean they are bad players or won't be great, just maybe not at LT.

[BearFan PHX]

Before the combine, all these same sources had Membou as a guard, and listed far lower. Then he wins the Underwear Olympics and suddenly hes a top 10 pick? I don't buy it. Hes undersized and the film shows he quits on plays. i think hes got some Nate Davis in him.

I think we either take Banks at 10, or we are going to take Conerly or Ersey with our first pick. And since that's early to take those guys who are slotted into the second half of the first round, if Banks isnt there we will want to trade back before taking one of those two if possible.

And to me, that's where all the Jeanty, Warren noise comes into play. Either or both may drop to us, and we are probably blowing smoke to set up a trade down for us. Maybe just a couple slots to Dallas for example.

We'll see what happens, but the more homework I do, the more convinced I become about this.

OT with our first pick, Banks, Ersery or Conerly, POSSIBLY Simmons if they know more positive news than I do about his medical prognosis. But since that's probably unknown to everyone right now, I think it's one of those first three, with or without a trade back.

[adam]

9 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Before the combine, all these same sources had Membou as a guard, and listed far lower. Then he wins the Underwear Olympics and suddenly hes a top 10 pick? I don't buy it. Hes undersized and the film shows he quits on plays. i think hes got some Nate Davis in him.

I think we either take Banks at 10, or we are going to take Conerly or Ersey with our first pick. And since that's early to take those guys who are slotted into the second half of the first round, if Banks isnt there we will want to trade back before taking one of those two if possible.

And to me, that's where all the Jeanty, Warren noise comes into play. Either or both may drop to us, and we are probably blowing smoke to set up a trade down for us. Maybe just a couple slots to Dallas for example.

We'll see what happens, but the more homework I do, the more convinced I become about this.

OT with our first pick, Banks, Ersery or Conerly, POSSIBLY Simmons if they know more positive news than I do about his medical prognosis. But since that's probably unknown to everyone right now, I think it's one of those first three, with or without a trade back.

Membou is only 6'3", will more than likely slide inside. 

[Mongo3451]

I have strong feeling we won't draft an OT.  Defense, Jeanty or Warren...

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think this is just what the PFF draft simulator says. A lot of mock drafts have Banks going before we even pick.

I think he is the #1 OT in the draft, and the only three I want are Banks, Ersery or Conerly.

The only site that has the players ranked close to right in my view is NFLDraftBuzz. They mock draft simulator is crazy though, Travis Hunter, who they have correctly ranked at #1, falls past 10 ll the time. So Im not saying the simulator is great, but the overall rankings are good and are in line with what Ive seen on film. And they have Banks as the highest rated OT, at #7 overall.

Membou is all smoke and mirrors, and Campbell has some serious red flags in my view, but draftbuzz has Campbell at #9 and Membou at #11 if that helps you to trust them. I wouldnt touch Membou or Campbell as a LT at all.

I have been using draftbuzz for 3 years or more. They seem to list players strengths and weaknesses pretty accurately.  I don't know their writers background but they are the first site I go to when learning about prospects.

Looking at 2026 - haha - there are two names that already interest me at LT. Kadyn Proctor Alabama and Monroe Freeling Georgia.  Banks can move to LG, replacing Thuney. 

[BearFan PHX]

20 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I have been using draftbuzz for 3 years or more. They seem to list players strengths and weaknesses pretty accurately.  I don't know their writers background but they are the first site I go to when learning about prospects.

Looking at 2026 - haha - there are two names that already interest me at LT. Kadyn Proctor Alabama and Monroe Freeling Georgia.  Banks can move to LG, replacing Thuney. 

I like DraftBuzz's ratings as well. In any draft year, whichever site makes it hardest for me to get the players I want is the one i use. Call it worst case scenario planning.

But thats just another way of saying they value the players I like the same way I do.

As for next year's draft, my crystal ball is already getting bad reception on this one hahaha

[ASHKUM BEAR]

18 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I like DraftBuzz's ratings as well. In any draft year, whichever site makes it hardest for me to get the players I want is the one i use. Call it worst case scenario planning.

But thats just another way of saying they value the players I like the same way I do.

As for next year's draft, my crystal ball is already getting bad reception on this one hahaha

I just started looking now haha.  DT Darrell Jackson Jr FSU, 2 USC WRs that are 5'10 180 that might be a Caleb fav. Jeremiah Love RB Notre Dame....it's endless wants

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I just started looking now haha, but DT Darrell Jackson Jr FSU, 2 USC WRs that are 5'10 180 that might be a Caleb fav. Jeremiah Love RB Notre Dame....it's endless wants

we need 4 or 5 first round picks every year.

[Stinger226]

Draft buzz is one of my favorite sights for information on players but I never looked back at their previous projections to know how accurate they are . 

The biggest question is what Johnson and Allen think of players in the draft and how they value what we have. No one knows. I think we have an idea of what Poles does but how much that applies this year is unknown. The Draft will answers lots of questions. If I was guessing, an DL at 10 or speed somewhere. It's just my opinion. 

[Stinger226]

I looked back at draft buzz 2024 and they were very accurate with the top 10 not necessarily in the order but players.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Before the combine, all these same sources had Membou as a guard, and listed far lower. Then he wins the Underwear Olympics and suddenly hes a top 10 pick? I don't buy it. Hes undersized and the film shows he quits on plays. i think hes got some Nate Davis in him.

I think we either take Banks at 10, or we are going to take Conerly or Ersey with our first pick. And since that's early to take those guys who are slotted into the second half of the first round, if Banks isnt there we will want to trade back before taking one of those two if possible.

And to me, that's where all the Jeanty, Warren noise comes into play. Either or both may drop to us, and we are probably blowing smoke to set up a trade down for us. Maybe just a couple slots to Dallas for example.

We'll see what happens, but the more homework I do, the more convinced I become about this.

OT with our first pick, Banks, Ersery or Conerly, POSSIBLY Simmons if they know more positive news than I do about his medical prognosis. But since that's probably unknown to everyone right now, I think it's one of those first three, with or without a trade back.

I am now fully convinced if Jeanty is there they take him. Warren maybe - but I could see them liking one of the dlinemen more. 
 

At this point I expect one of the 2Nd rounders to be oline vs a 1st rounder.