#10 Mock Draft Selection

[BearFan PHX]

15 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I am now fully convinced if Jeanty is there they take him. Warren maybe - but I could see them liking one of the dlinemen more. 
 

At this point I expect one of the 2Nd rounders to be oline vs a 1st rounder. 

That makes a lot of sense generically in an average draft, and Jeanty is definitely the best back in the draft by far, and a good pick at 10, but I dug into that idea, and no one I like at OT falls to the 2nd round reliably. Often i had to go to Grant from W&M and he's definitely an intriguing project but he isnt gonna start at LT on day one the way I think Banks, Ersery or Conerly could.

This is what keeps painting me into the corner about taking an OT at 10 and even reaching if necessary to get one who is slotted in the later part of the round, and having to take him early.

The truth is there are some very good backs available in round 2, and defensive help too, especially at safety. None of those players is Jeanty, but the falloff there is a lot less than OT.

To me, the only way to take Jeanty, would be if we could package our 2nd rounders together and move up to snag Ersery at 20 or 25 or something like that. If we had that pick there locked down, then Id feel very comfortable taking a non OT, especially Jeanty.

But without that certainty, I feel like we're boxed into taking OT.

Our two holes are OT and HB. After that we could add talent, but the starters are filled if we dont get a guy at any position. But right now, OT is wide open, and Swift aint gonna cut it for me. So OT and HB in the first three picks.

(I say three picks becasue we pick #39 and then again #41, and New Orleans between the two is looking for the same kind of safety we are, so Id take the S at #39 and the HB at #41 right after, even though the HB is more important to us.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

17 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

That makes a lot of sense generically in an average draft, and Jeanty is definitely the best back in the draft by far, and a good pick at 10, but I dug into that idea, and no one I like at OT falls to the 2nd round reliably. Often i had to go to Grant from W&M and he's definitely an intriguing project but he isnt gonna start at LT on day one the way I think Banks, Ersery or Conerly could.

This is what keeps painting me into the corner about taking an OT at 10 and even reaching if necessary to get one who is slotted in the later part of the round, and having to take him early.

The truth is there are some very good backs available in round 2, and defensive help too, especially at safety. None of those players is Jeanty, but the falloff there is a lot less than OT.

To me, the only way to take Jeanty, would be if we could package our 2nd rounders together and move up to snag Ersery at 20 or 25 or something like that. If we had that pick there locked down, then Id feel very comfortable taking a non OT, especially Jeanty.

But without that certainty, I feel like we're boxed into taking OT.

Our two holes are OT and HB. After that we could add talent, but the starters are filled if we dont get a guy at any position. But right now, OT is wide open, and Swift aint gonna cut it for me. So OT and HB in the first three picks.

(I say three picks becasue we pick #39 and then again #41, and New Orleans between the two is looking for the same kind of safety we are, so Id take the S at #39 and the HB at #41 right after, even though the HB is more important to us.

I think moving up with one of the 2nd and down with the other could be an option. Move up and get someone who dropped (maybe get that 5th year option at back of first round) and than move back 10 spots with the other pick. 
 

Or maybe Simmons or Ersery fall and you also grab one of the safeties. Get the difference making talent regardless of need - more difference making talent more likely a few players really hit. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I looked back at draft buzz 2024 and they were very accurate with the top 10 not necessarily in the order but players.

And just to clear that picture a little bit, their player rankings arent necessarily supposed to predict the actual draft order, because raw playing rankings dont take into account teams needs and styles.

If they get it generally right, that means the evaluations were right, but draft order is something else.

I love the DraftBuzz simulator on random 2 setting. It does seems to have Travis Hunter and some others dropping, maybe unrealistically, due to team needs, but they do take the guys i think are more reasonable for us early, so its like a worst case scenario simulator.

I guess thats kind of like having 12 players go before your pick at 10 in a way, if im not taking Hunter if he falls because its not realistic, because if he was taken, someone else would be available instead, but I think its a good way to make sure you can get what you need no matter what happens.

It helps answer questions like:

who are the 2nd round and 3rd round HBs you KNOW will be there?

What defensive help is available in rounds 2 and 3 on the DL or at S

What skill players, WR or TE are available in 2 and 3

and for me, the question that slants everything else for me this year:

Where can we get a starting quality LT at pick #39? And I think the answer to that is it's too late by then.

That's the main question I hope the simulators and mock drafts can answer. I have a feeling Ersery is going a lot earlier than people think. So Ive been running scenarios where I take an OT at 10 no matter whether its Banks or a reach. ANd Im finding lots of good talent at HB, S, DT, WR and TE in rounds 2 and 3. But no reliable OTs.

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think moving up with one of the 2nd and down with the other could be an option. Move up and get someone who dropped (maybe get that 5th year option at back of first round) and than move back 10 spots with the other pick. 
 

Or maybe Simmons or Ersery fall and you also grab one of the safeties. Get the difference making talent regardless of need - more difference making talent more likely a few players really hit. 

yes BPA is always the best way to go, but we were unable to fill that LT need in free agency. Its a hard position to fill, and maybe this is the year to do it, and get a guy to protect Caleb for the next 10 years. i think Banks or Ersery could be that guy. Maybe Conerly?

[Stinger226]

I don't think they take a S or LB very high. 

I think 10 is a wildcard to be HB, TE , OL or DL. I think they look at speed somewhere. 

I don't think any of the OL are considered Blue Chip so I think they draft a prospect in the second round to compete at LT, Conerly- Grant-?

I think a surprise pick could be Mathew Golden at 10. 4.25 speed gives Ben's offense another weapon.

Warren could also be a weapon because of his flexibility for a first round pick..

I think Jeanty will be gone but if falls will be considered.  A depth class also opens it up to take a RB later. Do not not overlook Jaydon Blue or Brashard Smith as later RBs choices.

DL is the most likely as Nolen and Kenneth Grant will be there to choose from. If Allen likes a DE , maybe Pierce becomes the target. He plays the run well despite his size. I think Green maybe to much as a situation pass rusher. Otherwise scheme fits will be in the second round. Both OSU DEs fit that they looked at. 

Safety and LB has their positions covered this year and may be a priority next year. Also can pick up good players in free agency.

[BearFan PHX]

On nfldraftbuzz.com, they had a setting for picking not by draft buzz player rankings, but "consensus" rankings, whatever that is - sounds like a lot of opinions averaged out, I dunno whos opinions but they arent smart. Look at this ridiculous, insane, impossible draft. Whoever is making these consensus evals is really dumb LOL

 

[Stinger226]

22 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

yes BPA is always the best way to go, but we were unable to fill that LT need in free agency. Its a hard position to fill, and maybe this is the year to do it, and get a guy to protect Caleb for the next 10 years. i think Banks or Ersery could be that guy. Maybe Conerly?

You are looking at the LT position as a weakness. I think they view it as an average LT with a third round pick giving him competition already on the team. A second pick to back up both and be developed will be drafted this year. I don't usually say what I want but what  I think they will do.

[BearFan PHX]

7 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

You are looking at the LT position as a weakness. I think they view it as an average LT with a third round pick giving him competition already on the team. A second pick to back up both and be developed will be drafted this year. I don't usually say what I want but what  I think they will do.

exactly. we disagree about this. I do see LT as a gaping hole that needs filling. so much about this roster is first class, Braxton Jones is the odd man out.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

32 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

yes BPA is always the best way to go, but we were unable to fill that LT need in free agency. It’s a hard position to fill, and maybe this is the year to do it, and get a guy to protect Caleb for the next 10 years. i think Banks or Ersery could be that guy. Maybe Conerly?

Im fine with Braxton and Kiran for another season vs reaching given what else they did. Just my two cents. I think Jones is pretty decent - especially if talent around him is better. He isn’t great but he is middle of the road and still very young and Kiran has all the measurable. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

10 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Im fine with Braxton and Kiran for another season vs reaching given what else they did. Just my two cents. I think Jones is pretty decent - especially if talent around him is better. He isn’t great but he is middle of the road and still very young and Kiran has all the measurable. 

And by the way - I want a stud LT more than anything - it might have to be next year vs this year though. 

[BearFan PHX]

51 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Im fine with Braxton and Kiran for another season vs reaching given what else they did. Just my two cents. I think Jones is pretty decent - especially if talent around him is better. He isn’t great but he is middle of the road and still very young and Kiran has all the measurable. 

when I talk about reaching, I mean drafting earlier than the average team might, but I dont think Ersery is a lesser talent or there would be no point.

But I understand the fundamental difference of opinion. I dont want Jones, and some people think he is decent and a good placeholder for a year. And if i thought that, I'd probably be talking about Jeanty right now. So I get it, and I respect the difference of opinion.

And if we do go into the season riding Jones and Amagadje, I sure hope that they outperform my expectations, maybe due to a better system and better coaching. And I will be thrilled to see it if thats what happens.

But just in my gut, after watching some film on all these guys, I would rather see Banks or Ersery than Jones next year, even if it meant taking a guy everyone thought would go at 25 at 10. If Ersery is worth the 10th pick, and no trade downs were available, it's OK to spend the value on him thats your evaluation of him i think.

So it just comes down to our differences in eval on Banks, Ersery, Jones and Amagadje, and that is the stuff that makes the world go around.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Im fine with Braxton and Kiran for another season vs reaching given what else they did. Just my two cents. I think Jones is pretty decent - especially if talent around him is better. He isn’t great but he is middle of the road and still very young and Kiran has all the measurable. 

Totally agree with that. I want a stud LT also but may not be in this draft. Grab a guy to develop and see what happens.

[BearFan PHX]

53 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Totally agree with that. I want a stud LT also but may not be in this draft. Grab a guy to develop and see what happens.

I think in the end, this all comes down to player evaluation - this is the nature of our debate. We all say we would take a blue chip LT if he was available, so the question is whether Banks is one.

Here is a highlight film. There are some bad reps on it too. He is young, only newly 21. But if you look at the good reps, against premium competition, you see the makings of a Pro Bowl LT. He looks fluid and his hand fighting is excellent. He plays with great bend and pad level. Good anchor. He delivers a good punch and absorbs and tames violence at an elite level. He seeks out contact, not a catcher. He is a beast.

I think we should consider that he is a blue chip prospect, coming out young as a Junior, who could really benefit from being molded by Roushar.

Draft Buzz says ceiling is All Pro LT, and FLOOR is All Pro OG:

(from Draft Buzz)
Banks projects as a high-ceiling prospect who could excel at either tackle or guard, with the versatility to be a day-one impact starter at either spot. His advanced pass set technique and fluid movement skills translate beautifully to tackle in systems emphasizing quick-game concepts and RPOs, while his natural leverage and explosive power could make him an elite interior force. Though slightly shorter than ideal for tackle, his technical mastery and exceptional awareness more than compensate for any length limitations.

His processing speed and technical foundation project particularly well to zone-based systems where his fluid movement skills and expertise in combination blocks can be maximized. While he's shown clear starter ability at tackle, his unique skill set could reach even greater heights at guard, where his natural leverage and explosive power could make him one of the league's premier interior linemen. His quick mental processing and natural feel for angles should allow him to dominate at either position.

Banks has the tools to develop into a Pro Bowl-caliber player at either spot, with his ceiling potentially even higher at guard. His floor appears to be that of a quality starting tackle, with All-Pro potential if kicked inside.

This film is 1:49 long - under 2 min.

 

[BearFan PHX]

to compare, here is Campbell, look how stiff he is, how high he plays, and his bad handfighting, plus how he is leaky inside. Yuck!

This film is 1:38 long - well under 2 min

 

 

[Stinger226]

I think it's easy to find tape to make someone look good or bad. Overall he's rates 15-25 by listings I've seen. I like draft Buzz a lot but don't agree him rated that high. If the Bears use Draft Buzz website to pick players then they should take him.

I can't remember who , I've watched so many, but maybe Matt Miller , said he looked great his first 5 games has a minor injury and came back was very pedestrian. He watched every minute of tape his whole career and has questions about him. So who's opinion do you want to listen to? 

If the Bears take him, cudos to you for sticking with him, if they don't the overall opinion may be true. I honestly can't say either way. I think the top 2 LTs in this draft are Simmons ( drops because of Injury) or Ersery (  needs some development). I think there are better players in the OL but think they go inside or RT.

If we take him , I will be happy that means they agree with you. I'm not against almost no one but a few players. I'm happy we have new coaches and 4 top 72 picks. This draft is icing on the cake.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

12 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

exactly. we disagree about this. I do see LT as a gaping hole that needs filling. so much about this roster is first class, Braxton Jones is the odd man out.

Since Thuney has not been extended yet and Poles pattern is trading a 4th for a high priced vet and letting them walk (Keenan Allen), Banks can be the next all-pro guard if he doesn't excel at LT.   

The Bears need to end the pattern of trading picks for talent.  By year 3, Kiran might be a good LT or they draft high again until they get a guy to excel and hold that spot for 8-10 years.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

38 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Since Thuney has not been extended yet and Poles pattern is trading a 4th for a high priced vet and letting them walk (Keenan Allen), Banks can be the next all-pro guard if he doesn't excel at LT.   

The Bears need to end the pattern of trading picks for talent.  By year 3, Kiran might be a good LT or they draft high again until they get a guy to excel and hold that spot for 8-10 years.

I do think the draft them because you see all pro upside at LT but also high end guard upside can get me comfortable. But if they are maybe a Top 7-12 guy at best at LT while they project as a really good guard, I might opt a different direction.  In the long run though - I won't argue at all with taking a LT.  I am fully aligned to the power of the Oline and all for investing in it.  

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Since Thuney has not been extended yet and Poles pattern is trading a 4th for a high priced vet and letting them walk (Keenan Allen), Banks can be the next all-pro guard if he doesn't excel at LT.   

The Bears need to end the pattern of trading picks for talent.  By year 3, Kiran might be a good LT or they draft high again until they get a guy to excel and hold that spot for 8-10 years.

I’m good with that plan.   But I also suspect whatever they are doing with Thuney will be kept quiet before the draft to keep everyone guessing.  

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

But I also suspect whatever they are doing with Thuney will be kept quiet before the draft to keep everyone guessing.  

💥 it's the little details...💪

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I do think the draft them because you see all pro upside at LT but also high end guard upside can get me comfortable. But if they are maybe a Top 7-12 guy at best at LT while they project as a really good guard, I might opt a different direction.  In the long run though - I won't argue at all with taking a LT.  I am fully aligned to the power of the Oline and all for investing in it.  

I agree, Banks would be an upgrade at LT, and if you see a better LT next year or the year after in the draft, then Banks is an All Pro guard. If he's there at 10, I think he's the smartest pick.

My only caveat to this plan, is if you love Ersery, and can package our two 2nd rounders to move up into the late first round to grab him, then you can spend 10 on Jeanty or the DT from Michigan. But you gotta KNOW you can get Ersery then.

Otherwise you can take Banks or Ersery at 10, and grab a HB like Kaleb Johnson in the 2nd along with DL, S, WR or TE.

Either way thats a very solid draft.

[Stinger226]

Greg Gabriel, who I like, don't care whether anyone else does or not. He has some hits and misses on predictions but gives an inside look on how things works. I get some people don't like him because he will call someone an idiot if they say something stupid. I'm not much of a politically correct speech person anyways.

He is friends with Thuney's agent and talked to him after they acquired him and said Poles told him they wanted to get an extension done before training camp. So the extension will come but I suspect Bears brass are busy with the draft right now.

To me this is what inside information looks like actually give names and explain relationships. A lot  of people say they have a source but never name one, Greg is a source because of 40 years of building relationships with NFL people. 

[BearFan PHX]

LOL Gabriel was against drafting Caleb - he is a total moron who fights with users on twitter LOL

He was director of scouting for the Bears from 2001 to 2010. Let's look at the Bears top 3 picks during his time directing their scouting department. It's a litany of ineptitude. We should literally do the opposite of what this guy says. Especially when it comes to Offensive Linemen - his eye is just broken.

2001
David Terrell
Anthony Thomas (decent pick)
Mike Gandy

2002
Marc Colombo
Roosevelt Williams
Terrence Metcalf

2003
Michael Haynes
Rex Grossman
Charles Tillman (good pick!)

2004
Tommie Harris (good pick)
Tank Johnson
Bernard Berrian

2005
Cedric Benson
Mark Bradley
Kyle Orton

2006
Danieal Manning
Devin Hester (good pick, but only a KR)
Dusty Dvoracek

2007
Greg Olsen (good pick)
Dan Bauzin
Garrett Wolfe

2008
Chris Williams
Matt Forte (good pick)
Earl Bennett

2009
Jarron Gilbert
Jauquin Iglesias
Henry Melton

2010
Major Wright
Corey Wooten
Joshua Moore
 

[Stinger226]

If they draft Banks he could play OG of course, but the Bears are planning on keeping the IOL together for 3 years by their contracts. I explained about a deal coming for Thuney in a previous post. 

I think AZ brought this up in an early thread about using a +10 as a back up for 3 years if they take an OL. #10 pick needs to be on the field and productive right out of the gate. That's why I backed off a first round OL pick weeks ago. 

I contend our weakest spots are #3 DE, we have Booker but he still isn't developed yet behind the starters. DL is a rotation thing anyways and you need 4 , why not a James Pierce Jr that will be there. Also weak applys to the DT spot. Dexter, Jarret and Billings ( contract ends 25) so we need a 4th tackle. That's why I like Kenneth Grant and Alfred Collins types more so than Nolen . 

Next a third WR or 2nd TE would be logical and an upgrade for duel RB scheme.  That could be Jeanty, Warren Golden at 10.

There are several good OL that would need a year or two to develop in later rounds that make more sense than at 10. 

Of course the outlier is we have no idea what the coaches think about existing players on the team that will influence the top 4 picks. Any prediction could be accurate.

[BearFan PHX]

I dont understand the faith in Braxton Jones. If you watch the tape from last year, he can be bull rushed into the QB on any down the defense chooses.

LT is our biggest hole, and RB is #2.

[Stinger226]

32 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

LOL Gabriel was against drafting Caleb - he is a total moron who fights with users on twitter LOL

He was director of scouting for the Bears from 2001 to 2010. Let's look at the Bears top 3 picks during his time directing their scouting department. It's a litany of ineptitude. We should literally do the opposite of what this guy says. Especially when it comes to Offensive Linemen - his eye is just broken.

2001
David Terrell
Anthony Thomas (decent pick)
Mike Gandy

2002
Marc Colombo
Roosevelt Williams
Terrence Metcalf

2003
Michael Haynes
Rex Grossman
Charles Tillman (good pick!)

2004
Tommie Harris (good pick)
Tank Johnson
Bernard Berrian

2005
Cedric Benson
Mark Bradley
Kyle Orton

2006
Danieal Manning
Devin Hester (good pick, but only a KR)
Dusty Dvoracek

2007
Greg Olsen (good pick)
Dan Bauzin
Garrett Wolfe

2008
Chris Williams
Matt Forte (good pick)
Earl Bennett

2009
Jarron Gilbert
Jauquin Iglesias
Henry Melton

2010
Major Wright
Corey Wooten
Joshua Moore
 

Anyone knows that  the GM and coaches decides picking of  the players and not a head of scouting. He gives the regime reports on players and the team decides. He worked for 40 years in the NFL so apparently teams didn't think he was bad at his job or it would have been short term. 

I know you don't like him and you're entitled to your opinion, but I disagree. I like when a person giving information based  on sources that actually have names and not anonymous. Most of Bear pundits always say they have an inside guy and it's just bullshit. I'll stick with real people.

He thought they should have kept Fields for one more year and still drafted Caleb but you don't watch his podcasts so you wouldn't know that.  He wanted Caleb to sit for a year while Fields played out his contract a Aaron Rodgers type of scenario.

 

Edited 7 hours ago by Stinger226