#10 Mock Draft Selection

[BearFan PHX]

13 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Anyone knows that  the GM and coaches decides picking of  the players and not a head of scouting. He gives the regime reports on players and the team decides. He worked for 40 years in the NFL so apparently teams didn't think he was bad at his job or it would have been short term. 

I know you don't like him and you're entitled to your opinion, but I disagree. I like when a person giving information based  on sources that actually have names and not anonymous. Most of Bear pundits always say they have an inside guy and it's just bullshit. I'll stick with real people.

He thought they should have kept Fields for one more year and still drafted Caleb but you don't watch his podcasts so you wouldn't know that.  He wanted Caleb to sit for a year while Fields played out his contract a Aaron Rodgers type of scenario.

 

Gabriel was head of scouting during a period of time where we had so many misses in the draft - it is only logical to assume the scouting info was trash. Then as I have read his takes since over the year he sticks out as one of the worst prognosticators of the entire world of sports commentators, which is really saying something.

I feel perfectly comfortable saying that he is a total idiot.

[Stinger226]

13 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont understand the faith in Braxton Jones. If you watch the tape from last year, he can be bull rushed into the QB on any down the defense chooses.

LT is our biggest hole, and RB is #2.

I have no problem with your opinion why do you with mine? I'm not  the only person with the Braxton gets one more year to prove himself as our potential future LT is his back up or takes over the LT job. 

I try to figure out what Poles is going to do more than just my opinion because that all that matters. He has a LT on the team that ranked 20th of all Ts last year, that is average in my eyes comparing the NFL LTs. He traded up last year to draft a LT to give him competition knowing he wouldn't be available until this year.

So I don't think he's throwing away 2 people he drafted because a less than stellar LT group is available this year. I think he let's it play out and drafts a Conerly or Grant and put them in the mix. He ain't paying Braxton 20 mil next year unless he takes a giant leap forward but he already drafted his replacement if he doesn't work out. 

The draft will easily show who's opinion was correct and I'm okay if I'm wrong, will you be?

 

[Stinger226]

13 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Gabriel was head of scouting during a period of time where we had so many misses in the draft - it is only logical to assume the scouting info was trash. Then as I have read his takes since over the year he sticks out as one of the worst prognosticators of the entire world of sports commentators, which is really saying something.

I feel perfectly comfortable saying that he is a total idiot.

As I said before, your entitled to your opinion. He was their during the Lovie years, I forget, were we a winning team then or our peterual loser team? Obviously you didn't list players they drafted that worked out. There must have been enough to have a  winning record.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

As I said before, your entitled to your opinion. He was their during the Lovie years, I forget, were we a winning team then or our peterual loser team? Obviously you didn't list players they drafted that worked out. There must have been enough to have a  winning record.

I listed the top three picks. not hiding anything. Urlacher and Brown were taken the year before Gabriel was head of scouting. His record is right there, and it's really awful.

 

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I have no problem with your opinion why do you with mine?

 

Well, I respect your right to have an opinion, just as you do mine, but since we disagree we dont share the same opinions, and that's fine too. I promise Im not attacking you, but I think Gabriel is a fool, and i think we need a LT. And its totally cool if you disagree.

 

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

The draft will easily show who's opinion was correct and I'm okay if I'm wrong, will you be?

I like what youre trying to do here - find some objective metric to prove who won the debate. The only thing is, Im not predicting what the Bears WILL do, but what I think they SHOULD do. So there will be a reckoning over the season (or two) that will sort out whether Jones will work out, or Banks etc - we will see how Ersery and Campbell does wherever he lands etc. But I wont say the draft outcome proves who is right, but I do agree that the next couple of years will?

I try to read what I can, and then relate it to what I see on tape. I did post a few short highlight reels here so people can see what Banks and Campbell actually look like, how much smoother Banks is etc - but the point youve made that a 2 min film doesnt tell the story is absolutely right. I think I put a disclaimer on my post too, because I agree with that.

But I watch 3 or 4 game halves against quality opponents (top pick DEs) and I see every snap of those halves. I see a lot - and no one is perfect, so I see the failures too. The question I ask myself is what are the attributes I see. What style do they have. Where are their talents and can the weaknesses be coached out or are they fundamental.

For example Banks may get beaten at times, but there is no pattern to it. Campbell gets his ass kicked on hand fighting constantly. Banks has great body position and anchors well, Campbell plays high on every snap. He is strong, but NFL players will take that inherent advantage away, and I think Campbell's poor technique will be exposed where Banks will grow and mature because his fundamentals are solid. He just turned 21 too, so he is young. Roushar will be great for him.

None of that gets into sportswriter articles. I honestly doubt how much film they actually even watch.

I dont think a sportwriters job is to find and tell the truth. I think it's to get eyeballs, so they play in the narratives like making Marvel sequels to a crowd that's already shown an appetite for those stories.

I love the TTNL guys this time of year, because they watch film, and he includes his dad who was a college head coach and was offered positions as OL coach on several NFL teams. I listen to what he says to look at on the film, and over the years Ive educated my eye, especially on the OL, to know what to look for.

Now that doesnt mean I agree with everything they say. They like Campbell more than I do. about 15% of the time, I think "that wasnt as bad (or good) an example as what theyre saying" so its a give and take. And over the time with all that watching, I develop an opinion. And it's MY opinion. It well could be wrong, I'm certain it has flaws, but it is earned in hours of watching tape. So I know WHY I think something.

I can't just read what writers say and regurgitate to each other (or to be fair, are contrarian on too) and think I know anything.

And to me, the perfect example is Membou. These same writers had him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick to convert to guard. Then he shows some athleticism, runs a fast 40 (what does that have to do with playing OT?) and suddenly he's everyone's favorite. That's just reacting to numbers. When I see him on tape I see him give up on plays, his heart isn't in it. I see a Nate Davis in the making. No combine number measures that.

So, we disagree on a bunch of things. I suspect that if you saw what I saw, we might agree more. So we disagree on players, and even how to bring in information to make decisions BUT you have every right to your opinion, and no one knows everything (meaning I dont!) so Im not trying to fight or disrespect you. I DO disagree with what you say, but not with you as a person.

And lastly I will say that the few things weve argued about before that got heated were about players and coaches already in the NFL with NFL tape on them. When I got dogmatic early about Leno, Fields and Eberflus, I felt I KNEW I was right. And I think time has showed that I was. But I dont have that kind of certainty on any draft picks that haven't played in the NFL yet. I have strong opinions, but I am not convinced that I am RIGHT the way I have been a few times after seeing a couple seasons of NFL work on players and coaches.

Any rookie can learn, grow and surprise us. That's not a reason to draft someone just on that hope, but it is a reason for me to admit that I cant be SURE that Campbell wont become a great OT - just that I wouldnt make that bet right now.

Hope that all makes sense.

[Mongo3451]

I could seriously live with this one.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

I could seriously live with this one.

Oh hell yes. That draft is so good, it's kind of impossible! I would do cartwheels, and for the record, I doubt very seriously I can physically do cartwheels LOL

Can you do something similar on nfldraftbuzz.com? To me, thats the much tougher one with those good players rated higher.

I want Banks of course. I like three safeties; Emmanwori, Starks and Watts, so great there. I also think Landon Jackson is underrated and a really good pass rusher. These players are right in line with the guys I like, but I doubt they last this far?

But for the draft simulator game? This is an A+ draft for me. Take someone else instead of Mason Taylor and pick up TE Oronde Gadsden in the 5th, and see if you can add WR Jack Bech at 45, and I would just weep for joy.

EDIT: you know, I dont see Banks falling this far, but Ersery is ripe for around the 19th pick. If you could make these same trades, this could be realistic with Ersery instead of Banks. Thatd be pretty good.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I listed the top three picks. not hiding anything. Urlacher and Brown were taken the year before Gabriel was head of scouting. His record is right there, and it's really awful.

 

Well, I respect your right to have an opinion, just as you do mine, but since we disagree we dont share the same opinions, and that's fine too. I promise Im not attacking you, but I think Gabriel is a fool, and i think we need a LT. And its totally cool if you disagree.

 

I like what youre trying to do here - find some objective metric to prove who won the debate. The only thing is, Im not predicting what the Bears WILL do, but what I think they SHOULD do. So there will be a reckoning over the season (or two) that will sort out whether Jones will work out, or Banks etc - we will see how Ersery and Campbell does wherever he lands etc. But I wont say the draft outcome proves who is right, but I do agree that the next couple of years will?

I try to read what I can, and then relate it to what I see on tape. I did post a few short highlight reels here so people can see what Banks and Campbell actually look like, how much smoother Banks is etc - but the point youve made that a 2 min film doesnt tell the story is absolutely right. I think I put a disclaimer on my post too, because I agree with that.

But I watch 3 or 4 game halves against quality opponents (top pick DEs) and I see every snap of those halves. I see a lot - and no one is perfect, so I see the failures too. The question I ask myself is what are the attributes I see. What style do they have. Where are their talents and can the weaknesses be coached out or are they fundamental.

For example Banks may get beaten at times, but there is no pattern to it. Campbell gets his ass kicked on hand fighting constantly. Banks has great body position and anchors well, Campbell plays high on every snap. He is strong, but NFL players will take that inherent advantage away, and I think Campbell's poor technique will be exposed where Banks will grow and mature because his fundamentals are solid. He just turned 21 too, so he is young. Roushar will be great for him.

None of that gets into sportswriter articles. I honestly doubt how much film they actually even watch.

I dont think a sportwriters job is to find and tell the truth. I think it's to get eyeballs, so they play in the narratives like making Marvel sequels to a crowd that's already shown an appetite for those stories.

I love the TTNL guys this time of year, because they watch film, and he includes his dad who was a college head coach and was offered positions as OL coach on several NFL teams. I listen to what he says to look at on the film, and over the years Ive educated my eye, especially on the OL, to know what to look for.

Now that doesnt mean I agree with everything they say. They like Campbell more than I do. about 15% of the time, I think "that wasnt as bad (or good) an example as what theyre saying" so its a give and take. And over the time with all that watching, I develop an opinion. And it's MY opinion. It well could be wrong, I'm certain it has flaws, but it is earned in hours of watching tape. So I know WHY I think something.

I can't just read what writers say and regurgitate to each other (or to be fair, are contrarian on too) and think I know anything.

And to me, the perfect example is Membou. These same writers had him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick to convert to guard. Then he shows some athleticism, runs a fast 40 (what does that have to do with playing OT?) and suddenly he's everyone's favorite. That's just reacting to numbers. When I see him on tape I see him give up on plays, his heart isn't in it. I see a Nate Davis in the making. No combine number measures that.

So, we disagree on a bunch of things. I suspect that if you saw what I saw, we might agree more. So we disagree on players, and even how to bring in information to make decisions BUT you have every right to your opinion, and no one knows everything (meaning I dont!) so Im not trying to fight or disrespect you. I DO disagree with what you say, but not with you as a person.

And lastly I will say that the few things weve argued about before that got heated were about players and coaches already in the NFL with NFL tape on them. When I got dogmatic early about Leno, Fields and Eberflus, I felt I KNEW I was right. And I think time has showed that I was. But I dont have that kind of certainty on any draft picks that haven't played in the NFL yet. I have strong opinions, but I am not convinced that I am RIGHT the way I have been a few times after seeing a couple seasons of NFL work on players and coaches.

Any rookie can learn, grow and surprise us. That's not a reason to draft someone just on that hope, but it is a reason for me to admit that I cant be SURE that Campbell wont become a great OT - just that I wouldnt make that bet right now.

Hope that all makes sense.

That is all fair banter. I will say again, that I am trying to guess what Poles is going to do, if I had my choice, I would take Kenneth Grant and watch him turn into Kareem Hicks. Take an OL and DE in the second round and RB at 72. That is what I want. 

I don't think Banks is a special LT to take at 10 because some sites rated him high. People I have listened to aren't saying he will be bad but 10 should have a pro bowl future type picked there. Sone think he will be better at OG. 

A perfect example of my point, last year Poles kept Flus of which I thought would happen. Cudos to you he turned out bad and you struck to that, I thought he should get one more year to prove himself. He failed . Had we fired him last year Ben Johnson wouldn't have became our coach of which I'm hugely on board. Warren wouldn't let us hire Harbaugh last year so who knows who we got. We are where we are. Whether for better or worse I think Poles doesn't add a LT at 10, that's all I'm saying. I have no idea who is good or bad as far as prospects. I hope they get it right 

[Stinger226]

Poles talked about the  draft of his first 3 picks being a taylored decision. 

If they take player A then who could be  there at 39 and 41. If they take player B, who would be there at 39 and 41. 

The strength of the draft is DT, RB, DE and TE.  If a blue Chip player drops BPA would apply. Most say 7-8 blue chip plus QBs. 

I have no idea, but it makes this a great watch.

My best choice would be to move back because many say 10-50 are similar graded but who would be there at 10 that someone wants? I have no idea. 39 might be a better place to get extra picks as some players drop out of first round.

I would be very happy with the mongo Draft.

[BearFan PHX]

57 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

That is all fair banter. I will say again, that I am trying to guess what Poles is going to do

This is how we can disagree and both be right 
 

57 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I don't think Banks is a special LT to take at 10 because some sites rated him high. People I have listened to aren't saying he will be bad but 10 should have a pro bowl future type picked there. Sone think he will be better at OG.

I dont care what the sites say, I just look at the player, but it's all good that we just don't agree on Banks. That's cool.

OOPS hit return too soon, see the last part below...

[BearFan PHX]

47 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Poles talked about the  draft of his first 3 picks being a taylored decision. 

If they take player A then who could be  there at 39 and 41. If they take player B, who would be there at 39 and 41. 

The strength of the draft is DT, RB, DE and TE.

now we are REALLY agreeing. This means most positions are deeper than OT.

And if you think (like I do) that we need a starter quality OT, and find none likely available by our 2nd round picks, then you'd be on board with all my crazy plans, like taking Banks at 10, taking Ersery at 10, or trading down in the 1st but still in Ersery range?

There are great HBs, S, WR, TE and some help on the DL too in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but nothing for quality LTs.

[BearFan PHX]

One more point: when I say I don't listen to writers and sites, I'm being too vague.

I totally listen. I hear what they praise about a player, and I hear what they complain about about a player, and when I watch film, I'm testing those ideas to see if theyre true or not. By then I've probably even forgotten who said what. THeyre just ideas to test.

The thing is, even if I wanted to "trust the experts" they often disagree with each other. So there isn't even a specific point of view. Then you're picking who you trust most among the pundits, and no one is always right, so I listen, but then I see if I see what they see.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont understand the faith in Braxton Jones. If you watch the tape from last year, he can be bull rushed into the QB on any down the defense chooses.

LT is our biggest hole, and RB is #2.

Johnson was quoted this week on Jones. Overall pretty positive quotes - but mentioned they want him to add some muscle so he can set his anchor better - but raved about his athleticism at tackle. 
 

Could be smoke - but you could hear the energy when he talked about Jones length and athleticism. He also said pass blocking is number one out of an LT. 

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Johnson was quoted this week on Jones. Overall pretty positive quotes - but mentioned they want him to add some muscle so he can set his anchor better - but raved about his athleticism at tackle. 
 

Could be smoke - but you could hear the energy when he talked about Jones length and athleticism. He also said pass blocking is number one out of an LT. 

yeah, it's lying season for sure. never know how to take it. Johnson says Jones is great, Allen says Tyler Warren is great. etc.

One thing that I like about Poles and now Johnson too, is they don't lie by mumbling and saying nothing like Belichick does, they lie by saying truly positive things, things that are true about players. When they say they like Jone's length they DO! But as to how that figures into a total grade and who they're riding with or dropping, there's no info there.

They wont compare players for example. But they will analyze the positive qualities of anyone.

And a big unknown is whether Roushar has already told Johnson that Jones or Amagadje is a perfect specimen for them and they think they can scheme and coach him into a dominant player. That they know exactly why they failed before, and know they can fix it. If Roushar said that about Amagadje for example, then we already have our blue chip starting LT on the roster. I would be surprised if this was true, but if it was, I wouldnt have any way of knowing that, so my draft predictions would be really skewed

[DABEARSDABOMB]

One bummer is the coaches haven’t really gotten to work with the players much. Do they get a mini camp before draft where they can at least put them through some agilities or is first time coaches get to really do anything right after draft when you have rookie mini camp and than some of the full mini camps / Otas leading up until training camp. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

now we are REALLY agreeing. This means most positions are deeper than OT.

And if you think (like I do) that we need a starter quality OT, and find none likely available by our 2nd round picks, then you'd be on board with all my crazy plans, like taking Banks at 10, taking Ersery at 10, or trading down in the 1st but still in Ersery range?

There are great HBs, S, WR, TE and some help on the DL too in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but nothing for quality LTs.

I will agree that Ersery is a true LT but doesn't get projected as a day 1 starter. If the Bears think Banks is the dude I'm all in with you taking him at 10. But that's where I don't think the circumstances change. I don't think Poles dumps 2 former picks to pick a top 15 OT. Braxton was rated 21 out of the NFL tackle room. He has bad tape and does have penalties. Watch every starting LT in the league and you will find maybe 10 that have consistent tape. LT is hard to fill and many high picks didn't turn into dudes at the position.  They are not taking Banks at 10 unless they believe he's a top 10 OT. The overall opinion is this is a very average draft at LT. That's why a lot of marginal LTs are projected at other positions.

This is what I think will happen. They trade back and if Banks is there ,may be the pick but more likely a 2nd round prospect to groom behind Braxton and Kiran because odds are Jones won't take a giant leap forward enough to get 20 mil a year. Kiran may jump Braxton on the depth chart. We just have no idea what they're doing. Grant or Hollis Pierce develops behind the Braxton and Kiran.

[Stinger226]

46 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

One bummer is the coaches haven’t really gotten to work with the players much. Do they get a mini camp before draft where they can at least put them through some agilities or is first time coaches get to really do anything right after draft when you have rookie mini camp and than some of the full mini camps / Otas leading up until training camp. 

The key point here is we don't know what the new coaches think of the roster. All they have is tape right now and Kiran basically doesn't have any. Lots of questions going into the draft.

[BearFan PHX]

Researching what football writers really do think about Banks.

Went to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/ and took notes on the first 21 Mock Drafts they collected. I got a good cross section, and got bored after 21 of them, but this includes CBS, NBC, FOX, PFN, PFF, SI, Barstool - most of the big ones.

Pushing the numbers around I found a few things. Some of them fly in the face of what the mock draft simulators have been telling us.

85% of them had Banks still available to us at pick 10, thats good news for me.

65% of them had Banks off the board by 13. And 13 was Banks' median draft position. So taking him at 10 is right in line with value in these peoples eyes.

You cant count on him at 17 or 20 in the trade down scenarios. PFF and a few others have him dropping to 25th which is why the simulators are saying he'll be there, but 2/3 of these had him gone by 13.

In some mocks he went as high as:
4 to NE (Fox Sports)
5 to Jacksonville (USA Today)
9 to New Orleans (NBC Sports)

Draft Buzz has him ranked as the #7 player in the draft, and as the #1 OT in the draft says about him:

Banks projects as a high-ceiling prospect who could excel at either tackle or guard, with the versatility to be a day-one impact starter at either spot. His advanced pass set technique and fluid movement skills translate beautifully to tackle in systems emphasizing quick-game concepts and RPOs, while his natural leverage and explosive power could make him an elite interior force. Though slightly shorter than ideal for tackle, his technical mastery and exceptional awareness more than compensate for any length limitations.

His processing speed and technical foundation project particularly well to zone-based systems where his fluid movement skills and expertise in combination blocks can be maximized. While he's shown clear starter ability at tackle, his unique skill set could reach even greater heights at guard, where his natural leverage and explosive power could make him one of the league's premier interior linemen. His quick mental processing and natural feel for angles should allow him to dominate at either position.

Banks has the tools to develop into a Pro Bowl-caliber player at either spot, with his ceiling potentially even higher at guard. His floor appears to be that of a quality starting tackle, with All-Pro potential if kicked inside.

----

I think the PFF grade we are all routinely assuming is correct about him is instead a big outlier among the rest of the Football Evaluation sites. This doesnt prove anything, except that Banks is not projected to be a mid round, non blue chipper. That's just PFF talk.



 

[Stinger226]

You show me 21 mock drafts and only 5 have him top 10, 11 have him 10-20 and 6 after 20.  I'm not sure this is illustrating to me your argument is correct.

My original statement that is generally  ranked 15 to 25 seems more true than top 10. Everyone on X has mock drafts so not sure how much that changes my mind.

I'll look up the people I trust and list them for you that actually puts months in analyzing players instead of ( my turn to mock draft). 

Matt Miller, Dane Brugler, Jeremiah, Ourlads and a few more.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

One bummer is the coaches haven’t really gotten to work with the players much. Do they get a mini camp before draft where they can at least put them through some agilities or is first time coaches get to really do anything right after draft when you have rookie mini camp and than some of the full mini camps / Otas leading up until training camp. 

They have a mini camp next week, so the coaches amd players can finally meet.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

So the LT is not clear cut in this draft and the other positions of need are deep (DT,RB,DE). We have 2 potential LTs on the roster but one has a contract expiring and the other needs time to develop.  

Two LT prospects, Banks and Campbell, are projected top 12 with projections to be good/great LT or great G. They are projected to be as good as Braxton/Kiran off the bat.  

If Banks or Campbell are there at 10, the Bears have to weigh their value against prospects in 2026 they could draft vs Kirans development or the slim chance Braxton excels and deserves a contract extension.  If Kiran doesn't overcome Braxton this year, the Bears are looking at later tier prospects to draft for 2026 and beyond since they should improve. 

The conclusion is the Bears have to seriously consider LT this draft.  This is why Banks is talked about.  If Banks cannot take and hold down the LT position, he will take Thuneys position and we hope Kiran can.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

You show me 21 mock drafts and only 5 have him top 10, 11 have him 10-20 and 6 after 20.  I'm not sure this is illustrating to me your argument is correct.

My original statement that is generally  ranked 15 to 25 seems more true than top 10. Everyone on X has mock drafts so not sure how much that changes my mind.

I'll look up the people I trust and list them for you that actually puts months in analyzing players instead of ( my turn to mock draft). 

Matt Miller, Dane Brugler, Jeremiah, Ourlads and a few more.

No I showed you 21 mock drafts, and in 65% of them he went 13 or earlier. he only dropped past 13, 1/3 of the time. Thats a consensus that he is worth 13. The median (middle value) was 13.

This isnt a case where you should take a mathematical mean average. That would be like if we asked 10 people how much money you owe me. 9 of them (including you) say you dont owe me anything, but I say you owe me a Million Dollars. Im full of crap of course, but if you do an average, then you owe me $100,000? No youd say the majority of people agree you owe nothing. Same math here.

So Banks is widely considered to go around 13. So 10 is not too early for him at all.

In fact it's a few outliers like.... wait for the drumroll... PFF that say he's worth 25 that brings the numbers down anyway.

PFF is ruining everyone's draft valuations and expected draft outcomes with their terrible rankings and simulators.