#10 Mock Draft Selection

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Months of work doesn't mean months of work on 1 player.  These are media talking heads once they get their notes put together their job is to go out and make money talking about it.  That's why they are usually late to the party on adjusting draft boards and even then a lot of that is in response to rumors, as opposed to their own re-evaluation.   

Even though we all disagree to some extent I find all of our combined research here on this board to be more accurate on trends that will happen in April vs the media.  That is players moving up/down on draft day versus where they were slated pre-combine.   One of the reasons for that is because of the debate where we force ourselves to dig deeper (as seen above) to validate one side or the other.  

As far as Banks goes I agree he's the best of the LT options especially if we want that in Week 1 because of Braxton's injury.  All of this depends on the mystery of what our staff think about Braxton and Kiran.  I listened and watched the mannerisms of Poles and Johnson as they answered questions on them this past week.  My suspicion is they are content to go forward with those 2.  Most telling was Poles as he talked about how he'd have a logjam of 3 players at one position for camp and he didn't seem to like that idea.   Then I reminded myself it's lying season.  

I hope Kiran is the guy they took in round 3 with high hopes. Even if they take someone at 10 like Banks, they will find a spot to play and carry the Bears for years.  The Bears avoided the trenches for decades, I'd be fine going OL DL every year round 1.  So give me Bank/Campbell or Pierce/Grant and I'll be satisfied.

[BearFan PHX]

Im not sure about the "problem" of having 3 LTs in camp for several reasons.

First off, unless you think Braxton Jones is going to ascend in some way he hasnt yet, theres not real reason to worry about his reps. He's had his time, and wont be healthy until later anyway.

Secondly, if one of these players clearly beats the others, then your LT position is set, and thats a good thing no matter whether you hoped Amagadje would get more time to develop or whatever

Third, all these players can play inside too, and we have no real depth, so there is a place for them on the roster.

Fourth, Jones is nearing a new contract, and I doubt we will want to pay him market value.

Fifth, every year there are injuries.

A you say AZ54, it's lying season, so indicating that you dont want 3 LTs might be a tell that you do LOL

[BearFan PHX]

8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

You can continue to show me stuff that support your opinion and I can too but whether he is the best T in the draft or not , I still don't think the bears are drafting a T at #10.

FWIW, when I started the mock draft comparison I had no idea what the outcome would be. I didn't cherry pick the mocks, I just took the first ones on that site, in order.

If research shows me i was off base, then I readjust, Im not just looking for data to prove Im right. THe reason i think Im right is that the data tells me that.

Anyway, I dont care about mocks, I was just rebutting your statement that he was widely considered lower and less than he is, and then i looked and low and behold, his median draft was 13th.

All I care about is film. I read and listen to people and their opinions, and then I go and see if those opinions are borne out on film. When I look at Banks, I see a smooth, athletic blocker with great technique, when I look at Campbell I see a stiff player who cant handfight, and plays too high. When I look at membou I see an undersized player who doesnt play to the whistle, and who's heart doesnt really seem to be in it.

I didnt pick Banks at random and then look for info to prove myself right - this isnt an exercise in ego - it's just the result of wanting to find the best LT pick for the Bears, and I come out that that is Banks.

[adam]

I did one with no trades or anyone dropping to 10. I really like how it turned out. 

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

I did one with no trades or anyone dropping to 10. I really like how it turned out. 

They gave you a C+ on Tyler Booker?  

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

FWIW, when I started the mock draft comparison I had no idea what the outcome would be. I didn't cherry pick the mocks, I just took the first ones on that site, in order.

If research shows me i was off base, then I readjust, Im not just looking for data to prove Im right. THe reason i think Im right is that the data tells me that.

Anyway, I dont care about mocks, I was just rebutting your statement that he was widely considered lower and less than he is, and then i looked and low and behold, his median draft was 13th.

All I care about is film. I read and listen to people and their opinions, and then I go and see if those opinions are borne out on film. When I look at Banks, I see a smooth, athletic blocker with great technique, when I look at Campbell I see a stiff player who cant handfight, and plays too high. When I look at membou I see an undersized player who doesnt play to the whistle, and who's heart doesnt really seem to be in it.

I didnt pick Banks at random and then look for info to prove myself right - this isnt an exercise in ego - it's just the result of wanting to find the best LT pick for the Bears, and I come out that that is Banks.

I totally get it, I think when I originally said he was around pick 15-25 that was accurate. If the bears think he is a future LT 10 is not to early. 

Rating him as 7 th pick in the draft is a stretch so says Draft Buzz. When you latch on to a player, your history is always putting favorable posts out there to support that player. There is also a lot of favorable content because lots of people share your belief. 

In this draft there is a general consensus who the best players are Hunter, Carter, Graham, Walker, Jeanty, Warren and some think Ward is. Banks is in the next tier with 25 other players. I don't think he is bad and would have no problem if we took him. I just don't think the bears are at 10, if we drop down and he is there at 20(?) grab him. I don't think they are taking a OL until the second round. 

I don't pretend to be any kind of draft guru, I would be happy with 10 different players at 10. I trust Poles to take the right person. I have liked every one he has taken in the first round since he got here. It's later picks he has botched.

I think 2 players not mentioned a lot that could end up picked at 10. Matt Golden WR ( weapon) , Or Jacob Walker/ LB . Johnson and Allen love speed. I'm not routing for this but could be a surprise on draft Day.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, adam said:

I did one with no trades or anyone dropping to 10. I really like how it turned out. 

That's a very realistic draft and would love that Draft. I would prefer Junkins to Henderson but that's my brain interfering. I have seen several people say Grant is Akim Hicks, I would love that pick at 10 

[BearFan PHX]

7 hours ago, adam said:

I did one with no trades or anyone dropping to 10. I really like how it turned out. 

all great names. I love Landon Jackson. Of course i want to see an OT, but these are all players Id love to see on the Bears.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I totally get it, I think when I originally said he was around pick 15-25 that was accurate. If the bears think he is a future LT 10 is not to early.

I dont see how a median of 13 means 15-25 was accurate? 15 - 25 means a general value around 20ish, 13 is much higher?

If someone said to redo their small bathroom and they'd give you somewhere between $15k and $25k to do it, and when you finished they gave you $13k, you wouldnt think that was anything like what theyd told you?

But we agree 10 isnt too early.

[BearFan PHX]

CRAP! Just read that Miami star LT Terron Armstead just retired.

More competition for LTs, and Miami might even have to trade up, maybe over us, or maybe to us, but then we arent getting Banks after Miami picks at 10 and SF picks at 11.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont see how a median of 13 means 15-25 was accurate? 15 - 25 means a general value around 20ish, 13 is much higher?

If someone said to redo their small bathroom and they'd give you somewhere between $15k and $25k to do it, and when you finished they gave you $13k, you wouldnt think that was anything like what theyd told you?

But we agree 10 isnt too early.

In not using what you showed me but the experts I trust.  Your mock list has lots of people that are just football fans, no serious analyzers that takes hundreds of hours of research as to watching 3 games and becoming an expert. 

 

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont see how a median of 13 means 15-25 was accurate? 15 - 25 means a general value around 20ish, 13 is much higher?

If someone said to redo their small bathroom and they'd give you somewhere between $15k and $25k to do it, and when you finished they gave you $13k, you wouldnt think that was anything like what theyd told you?

But we agree 10 isnt too early.

I agree if they took him at 10 that's not a reach.

I'm not sure what you do for a living but you will understand this. You are a record executive and 1000 people come in saying they are great singers. The reality is you may have 15-25 that are good. I'm not counting someone like me that creates a website (Thailand Bear's fan)  and puts out a mock draft because I think I am smart.

The top predictors in the business never get it right let alone people that claim to be smart because they are a football fan.

With all of this said, our greatest debate doesn't fall on where we list a players value, I don't think the bears are taking a OL at 10, is that what you believe? That's the key to what I'm saying.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Your mock list has lots of people that are just football fans, no serious analyzers that takes hundreds of hours of research as to watching 3 games and becoming an expert.

I have no idea what youre talking about. The page I linked to wasnt of fan mocks? it was the main sportswriters at all those major publications. CBS, NBC, FOx Sports, NFL.com, PFF, PFN, Sports Illustrated. THese were the mocks their experts did, the articles they wrote.

And I only submitted them to rebut one claim you made - that the experts see Banks as lower than they actually obviously do. that's factually wrong, and I proved it. Maybe Banks sucks, but expert opinions from the mainstream sports press do not make 13 equivalent to 15-25. That's false.

I also say that mocks are not what drives my opinion. I just put them there to prove your assertion about experts is wrong. I submitted the most mainsrteam experts.

What drives me is film. I know what Ive seen. Your entitled to your opinions of course, but i believe they are wrong.

I think Banks is a top pick, experts think he is a top pick, the film says he is a top pick.

But thats not proof of course. When all the "experts" were still saying Fields was good, I already KNEW he would never be good. I knew it from the tape. I knew he had crap protection. I didnt count those plays. I knew he had dropped balls, and I didnt count those plays either. But I saw a ton of plays where he was protected with guys open and didnt pull the trigger. Once I knew that I KNEW, not opinion, Id seen the proof.

I KNOW what kind of player Banks is. I cannot predict how he or Campbell or any of them will go from here. But I KNOW that right now, hes a top pick, and I feel comfortable with 65% of the so called experts saying he will be gone by 13.

Will he go even earlier? I hope not, but it's a distinct possibility.

But if youve thought I was putting fan mocks up, you didnt get my point at ALL.

Your constant argument seems to be that some writer you trust told you something. It's not YOUR opinion, it's theirs, and then the only defense you give for it is that they are experts and we arent. Well anyone whos read sportswriters for any period of time knows they are not infalliable. To say the least.

You say "X says Y" and then maybe we say "well I disagree, because I dont see Y on the tape" and you say "well youre just a stupid fan, and you dont know as much as my guy X knows" and then we say "well heres a bunch of OTHER experts who are JUST as credentialed as yours who disagree!" - doesnt that prove that credentials dont prove anyone is right? If others of the same pedigree disagree? Its a classic logical fallacy called the "argument from authority" and it isnt an argument at all because other authorities disagree, so therefore being an authority doesnt make you right. Being right does.

You cant say "2+2=5 because Im a math PHD" and some homeless guy says "well Ive got two beers in one hand, and two in the other and they add up to four" and you say "well youre not a math PHD" so which matters most? logical proof, or credentials? Especially when other math PHDs are saying 2+2=4 and maybe some crazy other ones are saying it equals 2.

At some point you have to count the freakin beers and prove your are right or not, regardless of credentials. Watching a LT play and evaluating them isnt rocket science dude. There are things to look for, and it's all on the tape. Many tens or hundreds of thousands of people can do it. They may disagree on evaluation, but at least they can argue on points, not just authority.

For example Doctor A says you have one disease, Doctor B says another. Im not a doctor but I say I think it's B too. So you say, "you're not a Doctor and Doctor A says its one disease" but... Doctor B IS a doctor and he says something else. So doesnt that mean being a Doctor doesnt mean youre right?

My sportswriters are just as credentialed as yours, and they disagree, so being credentialed doesnt prove anything. Thats the logical fallacy - the argument from authority.

I wish for once youd just tell me "I dont like your guy Banks because he plays too high" or "Banks has poor lateral movement" or SOMETHING more than a 40 time or an arm measurement - those are lazy narratives that are excuses for not doing the homework of actually watching the tape. But all you say is "well a guy I read doesnt agree with you, and their opinion is better than yours"

And at some point, since all the good writers disagree, I gotta just call BS and say "argue something substantive more than just we cant possibly know because we are just fans" because its insulting, and its not really a debate point at all.

Seriously, have you watched more than 10 minutes of highlights on any of these guys? You really look at Banks and dont see Pro Bowler potential? Really? You see Membou on tape and think he looks better? I dont think you would say that if youd LOOKED at the tape. It's just something you read someone else said.

That's not a debate. It's some combination of blind faith in a couple writers and stubbornness.

So from now on, don't tell me my opinion doesn't count because I'm just a fan. A lot of us have been watching football a long time, and I learn stuff from fellow posters here all the time. Lots of smart people here with educated opinions. Tell me why YOU think Im wrong about a player. Tell me what YOU see. This argument of authority thing isn't gonna fly any more.

I could well be wrong about anything - tell me why Im wrong, dont just dismiss me (and all of us) by saying we can't know what we're talking about.

[Stinger226]

The website you listed lists 1160 mock drafts to do their consensus. Yes lots of legitimate sites are included. 

Also ( PlayerProfiler) (Predominantly Orange) (DraftPlex) (Daft on Draft), , my hand would be sore listing all  that isn't legimate outlets.

You are correct in saying I listen to people I trust to be legimate that help form my opinion, and you just gave me a list of other opinions that say Banks is top 13. Isn't that's using other opinions to make your point? I've watched tape of Banks games (7) also. We could watch the exact same play and I could say he didn't handle that well and you tell me he did a good job. It's subjective. Obviously pancake plays, sacks and penalties are obvious. 

I am going to agree with you for sake of argument and say Banks is the best LT in the draft and it wouldn't matter. The bears aren't drafting a OL at pick 10, that's my main point. Poles values Kiran and Braxton more than you do and he gets to do the picking..

There really isn't any point on arguing draft rankings anymore. It doesn't matter.

You may be right about Banks but I trust Dane Bruglers opinion more than your film watching ability . He has spent hours on every player, seen them play before.  I have no idea of the kinda time you have watched Banks play football. 

[adam]

15 hours ago, AZ54 said:

They gave you a C+ on Tyler Booker?  

Yeah, and I thought that was a great pick at #41 lol.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The website you listed lists 1160 mock drafts to do their consensus. Yes lots of legitimate sites are included. 

Also ( PlayerProfiler) (Predominantly Orange) (DraftPlex) (Daft on Draft), , my hand would be sore listing all  that isn't legimate outlets.

You are correct in saying I listen to people I trust to be legimate that help form my opinion, and you just gave me a list of other opinions that say Banks is top 13. Isn't that's using other opinions to make your point? I've watched tape of Banks games (7) also. We could watch the exact same play and I could say he didn't handle that well and you tell me he did a good job. It's subjective. Obviously pancake plays, sacks and penalties are obvious. 

I am going to agree with you for sake of argument and say Banks is the best LT in the draft and it wouldn't matter. The bears aren't drafting a OL at pick 10, that's my main point. Poles values Kiran and Braxton more than you do and he gets to do the picking..

There really isn't any point on arguing draft rankings anymore. It doesn't matter.

You may be right about Banks but I trust Dane Bruglers opinion more than your film watching ability . He has spent hours on every player, seen them play before.  I have no idea of the kinda time you have watched Banks play football. 

I would love to debate the subjectivity of how you see him vs how I see him - that's what this place is for.

What it isnt for is you continuing to make the same logical error.

You say Brugler is an authority. I can find other authorities that are just as credentialed as Brugler that agree with me.

Therefore being credentialed doesn't mean anything because credentialed people agree with you AND me. And disagree with eachother.

If you remove the draft sites you mentioned as fringe (I agree they are - never head of them), the numbers skew even more in my favor. I just took the first 21 and included those sites so you wouldnt say I was cherry picking. The more mainstream the source on that list, the more they agreed with me. And in either case the median average was still 13.

And again, you need to understand, I am not saying that because 65%+ of the experts agree with me that I am am right. I am simply saying that PROVES you WRONG when you say "the experts agree that Banks goes 15 to 25." That is factually wrong. That's what the mock drafts showed. Nothing more.

So yeah, you have some guys you read that you think are smarter than all of us, and that's your "evidence" that what we think is wrong. Despite us having a majority of experts who agree with us. (which again, doesnt prove anything other than that being an expert doesnt make you right)

Make an argument or dont, but I am getting sick of you discounting any opinion that isnt one of the guys you read. Good for you that you follow someone. We are here to debate, and shutting down debate with the continued ONLY argument that we cant know anything or have a valid opinion because we arent your expert is rude.

I know what I see when I watch Banks tape. And my opinion is a valid one. I've been right before, I think I deserve the respect of you telling my WHY I'm wrong other than the same tired argument that I'm not an expert, but you ARE because youre just parroting one?

[BearFan PHX]

LOL I just googled Bruglers mock draft.

He says the player taken by the Bears is...

wait for it...

OT Kelvin Banks Jr.

SO what are you even talking about?!

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2025/the-athletic-2025-dane-brugler?date=2024-12-04

[BearFan PHX]

In other Mocks, Brugler has us taking OG Booker and OT Simmons.

So he is consistent that we will take OL.

10 is kinda early for a guard isnt it? And Simmons has injury concerns.

But moslty I gotta wonder. If Brugler is the holy guru who knows all, why does he keep changing his mind? And how does that prove we are wrong if he proves himself wrong by changing his mind?

This is why the argument of authority is a well known logical fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

In other Mocks, Brugler has us taking OG Booker and OT Simmons.

So he is consistent that we will take OL.

10 is kinda early for a guard isnt it? And Simmons has injury concerns.

But moslty I gotta wonder. If Brugler is the holy guru who knows all, why does he keep changing his mind? And how does that prove we are wrong if he proves himself wrong by changing his mind?

This is why the argument of authority is a well known logical fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

I just used him as an example, and I don't subscribe to the Athletic anymore, the last one I saw was from 3 weeks ago. It's not him against you it's people that do this for a living against a fan's opinion. Of course you have been right before that doesn't verify you as some kind an expert. 

Some people rate him high and some don't. I already said none of this matters,but we ain't taking him at 10 . I don't agree with anybody that says we are , let alone any OL. 

Get sick of what ever you want but because you think you are smarter than , everyone else means nothing to me. We are nor comparing degrees, awards, just opinions. For some reason, other people on  here say the same thing as I do and you say, I understand your opinion but you constantly push back on my opinion because you don't like me.  

I just don't have your ego, after the draft, if we take Banks, I'll be a fan and you can gloat how smart you are. If we don't take him , I'm not going to gloat ( see I was right) because it's just opinions.

I DON'T CARE 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

LOL I just googled Bruglers mock draft.

He says the player taken by the Bears is...

wait for it...

OT Kelvin Banks Jr.

SO what are you even talking about?!

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2025/the-athletic-2025-dane-brugler?date=2024-12-04

If you follow him, he has had different players thru out the off-season as our pick . Look at the dates when you offer something up for information. The one I found was from about 3 weeks ago. 

Order THE BEAST and see where his final projection is on his Big Board  I not wasting my money for sake of argument. 

When you start doing player evaluations for lots of money let me know so I can then list you with the experts AND I will still disagree if you have the same opinion.

[Stinger226]

I did say none of this matters because IMO, we're not taking an OL at 10. If you addressed that somewhere in your rant, I missed it. 

In the beginning of the off-season I wanted an OL and then we picked up our IOL Things change as we acquire assets as we move along. I still wanted a OL at 10 until AZ54 gave his opinion about why he doesn't think we will. I changed my mind after that.