OLine Transformation

[adam]

How do you quantify how much of an upgrade the new acquisitions on the OLine will be? Well, I looked at a few stats and this one stood out:

Sack Rate (Last 2 seasons)
Thuney - Sack Rate 0.16% 4 allowed in 2500 snaps 
Dalman - Sack Rate 0.27% 4 allowed in 1486 snaps
Jackson - Sack Rate 0.17% 2 allowed in 1148 snaps
These 3 players allowed only 10 Sacks allowed in 5,134 snaps, a 0.19% sack rate.

The 3 players they are replacing and what they did in 2024:
Jenkins 4 / 495
Pryor 7 / 659
Shelton 3 / 743
These 3 players allowed 14 Sacks in 1,897 snaps, a 0.73% sack rate, close to 4x more sacks over the same amount of snaps. Caleb was sacked 68 times last year, I would not be surprised if that number is cut in half for 2025, maybe more.

[BearFan PHX]

out of curiosity, what were Braxton Jones' sack numbers?

Id ask about Amagadge too, but in my mind he gets a fresh start since he came right from injury to being thrown into NFL games without any ramp up. That doesnt mean i expect him to be better (or not!) - Ill just grade him "unknown"

[dawhizz]

I was also thinking, with all the talk of upgrading the OL, are we overrating the need for a high pick on a RB? I can certainly see the Bears drafting one at some point, but with an upgraded O-line, and particularly the addition of really good run blockers, I’d like to see what Swift and Roschon can do before spending too high a pick on a RB. 

[BearFan PHX]

54 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

I was also thinking, with all the talk of upgrading the OL, are we overrating the need for a high pick on a RB? I can certainly see the Bears drafting one at some point, but with an upgraded O-line, and particularly the addition of really good run blockers, I’d like to see what Swift and Roschon can do before spending too high a pick on a RB. 

this is a logically sound argument. A better OL generically makes QBs and RBs better generically.

The questions are the pros and cons of players who are better or worse than average in specific traits.

I think Swift has a vision problem. he doesnt read holes well. I think Jeanty has incredible balance to take a hit and stay on his feet. When you plug in an above average player, it takes advantage of what the OL gives him, and when you plug in someone with issues, it can squander what the OL gives him?

I would be THRILLED to have Jeanty on our team. But the real question is who else is available at 10, and whether they are a better choice. So while I think Jeanty would be a huge upgrade over Swift, Im not convinced that an OT wouldnt be a bigger upgrade over Jones for example. So Im not saying to draft Jeanty, but I AM saying I dont like Swift that much.

Also, generically, people believe that HBs are a less important position than they were in the 90s. And this is generally true. You surely dont want to spend a big part of your cap on one. But here are three counter arguments for drafting a back high:

1) Rookie contracts dont eat up the cap, so it's just draft capital youre spending

2) Defenses are recently now playing more two high safety looks to beat the modern passing game, and this increases the opportunities for HBs to impact the game

3) Generic arguments about position overlook those handful of game changers that can come at any position. For example, no one thinks to draft a safety in the top ten, but youd think twice if it was Troy Palomalu or Ed Reed.

Now none of this is to say that I am sure that Jeanty is LaDanian Tomlinson. In not. Im just saying each person has to make that determination on the player himself, and not just on the generic valuation of the position. And same with OL. If all the players in the draft this year were of equal talent, my first pick would be OT or DL. But theyre not, and so we have to look at the players. Maybe Jeanty is the right choice. Maybe the TE? Maybe OL!

But the idea that HB isnt that important, or that there are more decent HBs later in the draft shouldnt ignore whatever someones valuation on Jeanty is. And neither should the generic argument that our OL is better, so it matters less.

But all that said, if someones argument is that Jeanty just isnt that good, then that's totally legit. Thats where the decision should be made in my opinion.

[dawhizz]

I do kinda wonder what Ben Johnson thinks of Swift, since the Lions traded him away when Ben Johnson was there. I guess we’ll find out. 

[BearFan PHX]

14 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

I do kinda wonder what Ben Johnson thinks of Swift, since the Lions traded him away when Ben Johnson was there. I guess we’ll find out. 

for sure, and with the way Swift's contract is, even if Johnson already knows he wants to move away from him, we might have to wait for next year to do it. But that doesnt mean we won't draft his replacement this year in the first few rounds.

Edit: If I am reading OTC right, while the cap hit is a lot of cutting him, trading him would be quite a savings. Interesting.

CUT = 500k of cap space opened up, and leaves 8M of dead cap

TRADE = 6.6M cap opened up and only 2.6M dead cap space

Who knew? Deandre Swift is trade bait!

Here's a wild idea: trade Deandre Swift and the 10th pick overall for a trade DOWN to get a lower first, a high to mid second, high to mid third and maybe something else? Who needs a RB?

https://overthecap.com/player/dandre-swift/8775

[AZ54]

30 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

for sure, and with the way Swift's contract is, even if Johnson already knows he wants to move away from him, we might have to wait for next year to do it. But that doesnt mean we won't draft his replacement this year in the first few rounds.

Edit: If I am reading OTC right, while the cap hit is a lot of cutting him, trading him would be quite a savings. Interesting.

CUT = 500k of cap space opened up, and leaves 8M of dead cap

TRADE = 6.6M cap opened up and only 2.6M dead cap space

Who knew? Deandre Swift is trade bait!

Here's a wild idea: trade Deandre Swift and the 10th pick overall for a trade DOWN to get a lower first, a high to mid second, high to mid third and maybe something else? Who needs a RB?

https://overthecap.com/player/dandre-swift/8775

I can’t imagine any team heading into this deep RB draft class trading for Swift.  You might be able to trade him later in the year to a team with a lot of RB injuries.  

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I can’t imagine any team heading into this deep RB draft class trading for Swift.  You might be able to trade him later in the year to a team with a lot of RB injuries.  

Since it would help us so much on the cap, and if we are drafting a RB too, maybe we could trade him cheap? That was why I thought of packaging him in a trade down - which would be a pretty unique scenario for sure.

[Mongo3451]

There are several factors that go into performance of an offensive line. (Coaching, leadership, work ethic, continuity, health and skill)

Coaching: we were voted the worst coached team in the NFL last year.  With good coaching, you motivate a solid off season program.  Does anyone think they worked hard on their strength and conditioning.  Thayer called them out on that.  Play calling also stands out in this category.

Leadership: the only leader we had on the OL was a washed up TE.  Now, we have Thuney.  From what people say, he will absolutely be a vocal and physical leader. 

Work ethic: we now have a great OL coach and Thuney.  From Johnson on down, there will be an installation of work ethic.  There's no question why we didn't offer Jenkins a penny. 

Continuity: with Jenkins, Nate Davis and Jones missing portions of TC, it's hard to gel.  I think they said we used 58 OL combinations the last two years.  Availability together is crucial.

Skill: the only starters we had above fifth round picks were Jenkins and Wright.  That doesn't cut it.  Failing to invest in the trenches has been a franchise killer for decades.  Of course people make it from all over the draft, but the success rates from the first two rounds are significantly better than any other position group.  Great teams draft trenches yearly.

Prediction: we know we upgraded three positions and Jones isn't that bad.  Our OL will drastically improve.  My guess is we'll cut sacks in half and increase YPC by 1.5 yards. 

Wish list: draft two more to push backups out the door.  Give Kiran a boot camp to see what he can provide as a prospect.  2026 draft two more until we know we're stacked.

[AZ54]

At no point have I heard Ben Johnson mention Swift.  Nor any of our RBs.  In his various press conferences or media interviews that I’ve seen I think he’s mentioned everyone on the offense (current version with recent Oline adds), even Braxton, in a somewhat positive light.  For sure I don’t catch everything in the media but I’ve watched many of them.  
 

As I’ve gotten older I’ve learned to listen to what people do not say as much as to what they do say.  That all fits into a lot of other contextual stuff like motives and so forth.  This is lying season.  IMO there’s something to this but we likely won’t know until after the draft.  
 

If any has clips of him talking about Swift please post them.  

[AZ54]

8 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

There are several factors that go into performance of an offensive line. (Coaching, leadership, work ethic, continuity, health and skill)

Coaching: we were voted the worst coached team in the NFL last year.  With good coaching, you motivate a solid off season program.  Does anyone think they worked hard on their strength and conditioning.  Thayer called them out on that.  Play calling also stands out in this category.

Leadership: the only leader we had on the OL was a washed up TE.  Now, we have Thuney.  From what people say, he will absolutely be a vocal and physical leader. 

Work ethic: we now have a great OL coach and Thuney.  From Johnson on down, there will be an installation of work ethic.  There's no question why we didn't offer Jenkins a penny. 

Continuity: with Jenkins, Nate Davis and Jones missing portions of TC, it's hard to gel.  I think they said we used 58 OL combinations the last two years.  Availability together is crucial.

Skill: the only starters we had above fifth round picks were Jenkins and Wright.  That doesn't cut it.  Failing to invest in the trenches has been a franchise killer for decades.  Of course people make it from all over the draft, but the success rates from the first two rounds are significantly better than any other position group.  Great teams draft trenches yearly.

Prediction: we know we upgraded three positions and Jones isn't that bad.  Our OL will drastically improve.  My guess is we'll cut sacks in half and increase YPC by 1.5 yards. 

Wish list: draft two more to push backups out the door.  Give Kiran a boot camp to see what he can provide as a prospect.  2026 draft two more until we know we're stacked.

You made me remember Ben at the press conference when a reporter asked him what he was going to do to make the transition to his offense easier on the players.   His answer:   Nothing.   This isn’t going to be easy and none of them should expect it to be easy.  

[BearFan PHX]

25 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

At no point have I heard Ben Johnson mention Swift.  Nor any of our RBs.  In his various press conferences or media interviews that I’ve seen I think he’s mentioned everyone on the offense (current version with recent Oline adds), even Braxton, in a somewhat positive light.  For sure I don’t catch everything in the media but I’ve watched many of them.  
 

As I’ve gotten older I’ve learned to listen to what people do not say as much as to what they do say.  That all fits into a lot of other contextual stuff like motives and so forth.  This is lying season.  IMO there’s something to this but we likely won’t know until after the draft.  
 

If any has clips of him talking about Swift please post them.  

I dont have a clip, but i do think someone asked Johnson about Swift, and he gave a lukewarm generic answer, so I think youre on the right track.

[Mongo3451]

42 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

You made me remember Ben at the press conference when a reporter asked him what he was going to do to make the transition to his offense easier on the players.   His answer:   Nothing.   This isn’t going to be easy and none of them should expect it to be easy.  

Yes sir.  I loved it!  Upon his hire, he also sent a message to the players, "get comfortable with being uncomfortable".

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, dawhizz said:

I was also thinking, with all the talk of upgrading the OL, are we overrating the need for a high pick on a RB? I can certainly see the Bears drafting one at some point, but with an upgraded O-line, and particularly the addition of really good run blockers, I’d like to see what Swift and Roschon can do before spending too high a pick on a RB. 

I agree, is Jeanty better of course but would the # 10 be used to upgrade a weaker positional group help the team more?  Johnson runs a 2 RB system to keep the defense off balance all the time. We need to feature Caleb in our offense not a load back.

[BearFan PHX]

16 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree, is Jeanty better of course but would the # 10 be used to upgrade a weaker positional group help the team more?  Johnson runs a 2 RB system to keep the defense off balance all the time. We need to feature Caleb in our offense not a load back.

Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted at #12 in 2023... He's a top talent, but not used as a load back.

I think that NFL defenses switch to 2 high safeties is changing the calculus on RBs. We're not reading more about it because the writers havent caught on to it as a narrative yet, but there is definitely a new correlation between success and the running game this past year.

Now that said, again, Im not at all saying we need to draft Jeanty. I dont know enough to project who he will be in the NFL. But if hes gonna be great, then #10 isnt that much higher than #12?

It all comes down to Jeanty's evaluation. Or any running back or player.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree, is Jeanty better of course but would the # 10 be used to upgrade a weaker positional group help the team more?  Johnson runs a 2 RB system to keep the defense off balance all the time. We need to feature Caleb in our offense not a load back.

Featuring Caleb would be giving him a run game that would keep defenses on their toes.  Ben Johnson alone will help with his play calling, but having RBs that can carve out  4.5 to 5.6 yds per carry like Monte and Gibbs makes the offense thrive. I'm not saying Jentry is the guy needed, buy Hampton, Johnson, or Henderson may be.  

I still think the oline needs more.  Like Phoenix, I am starting to lean back on Banks but Campbell is close. Simmons who we imagine has a more LT physique, only has 33" arms where Banks is 33-1/2. Campbell 32-5/8. Plus Simmons has the knee he needs to recoup from.  My sleeper LT pick is Air Ersery who is 6-6 331 and 33-1/8 arms and hovering at the top of round 2. 

Pick 45 could go Luther Burden WR or Princey DE, but went CB with crazy physical skills this time. 

[Stinger226]

Last year Kiran A was the 60th rated player in the draft. Late 2nd projection. The injury obviously dropped him down. If he came out this year he would be a late first round draft pick. 

He has all the traits of a good NFL LT. Strength, quickness and 36" arms. I would say Banks, Simmons and Campbell would be rated higher but he has great traits for LT.

We are underestimating his potential. He has one 1 year of adjusting to the NFL even though it was a disaster, he should have never been on the field. That wasn't his fault. He is one step ahead of any rookie we would draft other than maybe Campbell.( Who I thinks ends up inside) .

He definitely is the competition to Braxton this year that makes me think we don't draft a LT at 10. 

I would like us move back to the back of the first round and take Zabel. He could back up every position on the OL and be a future starter if something fails. We would get extra picks that could add to DL, RB, TE, S and WR. We add enough picks to add another prospect on the OL later in the draft. ( Joshua Gray) Is an upside prospect rated around 160 position.

[AZ54]

22 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted at #12 in 2023... He's a top talent, but not used as a load back.

I think that NFL defenses switch to 2 high safeties is changing the calculus on RBs. We're not reading more about it because the writers havent caught on to it as a narrative yet, but there is definitely a new correlation between success and the running game this past year.

Now that said, again, Im not at all saying we need to draft Jeanty. I dont know enough to project who he will be in the NFL. But if hes gonna be great, then #10 isnt that much higher than #12?

It all comes down to Jeanty's evaluation. Or any running back or player.

I still think that was a horrible draft for the Lions.  Johnson might be wearing a Superbowl ring if they had selected Will McDonald (10 sacks last year) to compliment Hutchinson, or even better CB Christian Gonzalez would have really helped their defense especially once they had Dline issues.   

Calijah Kancey had 7.5 sacks last year at DT and he went at 19 overall right after Detroit selected Jack Campbell at 18.     

As good as Gibbs has been I think they could have easily grabbed De'von Achane in the 2nd (a reach but less so than a RB at 12) or just take Achane when he was on the board in the 3rd and had similar productivity from the RB position.   Both Gibbs and Achane average 5.5 and 5.6ypc for their NFL careers.  Achane was drafted 16 picks after Detroit chose QB Hendon Hooker in Rd 3.    

[ASHKUM BEAR]

17 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Last year Kiran A was the 60th rated player in the draft. Late 2nd projection. The injury obviously dropped him down. If he came out this year he would be a late first round draft pick. 

He has all the traits of a good NFL LT. Strength, quickness and 36" arms. I would say Banks, Simmons and Campbell would be rated higher but he has great traits for LT.

We are underestimating his potential. He has one 1 year of adjusting to the NFL even though it was a disaster, he should have never been on the field. That wasn't his fault. He is one step ahead of any rookie we would draft other than maybe Campbell.( Who I thinks ends up inside) .

He definitely is the competition to Braxton this year that makes me think we don't draft a LT at 

Kiran might be the guy. He has to earn it and it will take a lot of hard work, but he has the tools.  Braxton is returning from a season ending ankle injury that required surgery and entering his final year under contract.  Will he have the strength and mobility regained by fall. We are a little over a month away and saying we are fine at the most important position other than QB is leaving a lot in the hands of hope. 

Poles said the LT spot is position they will have competition. Kiran was already competition, so I see them bringing in another piece to give them 4 or 5 years of added stability. Every prospect in the draft class also projects as a G, so taking a guy who can fit and compete there also fills the depth chart with a quality player that can play G if needed too.   

If the Bears take a round 1 or 2 LT, it's a great thing.  Something they haven't done much the past 20 some years 

[Mongo3451]

Let's say the draft pans out really well for us and we get a couple of studs.  Come trade deadline one may be ready to take over for Jackson or Thuney.  Thuney is only signed through this year and may draw a good pick from a desperate team. (Maybe even the Chiefs).  If Jackson returns to good form, he would be highly desirable on the trade market since he's signed through 2026.  

I also looked back at the draft profiles and scouting reports for Braxton and Kiran.  Braxton was projected to be a swing while Kiran projected to be a high ceiling left tackle project.  I'm intrigued with what our new staff can get out of him.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

50 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I still think that was a horrible draft for the Lions.  Johnson might be wearing a Superbowl ring if they had selected Will McDonald (10 sacks last year) to compliment Hutchinson, or even better CB Christian Gonzalez would have really helped their defense especially once they had Dline issues.   

Calijah Kancey had 7.5 sacks last year at DT and he went at 19 overall right after Detroit selected Jack Campbell at 18.     

As good as Gibbs has been I think they could have easily grabbed De'von Achane in the 2nd (a reach but less so than a RB at 12) or just take Achane when he was on the board in the 3rd and had similar productivity from the RB position.   Both Gibbs and Achane average 5.5 and 5.6ypc for their NFL careers.  Achane was drafted 16 picks after Detroit chose QB Hendon Hooker in Rd 3.    

I laughed at that draft.  If your team is deep, you might be able to sneak a RB in early.  They double dipped taking RB and LB in rd 1 that year.   It is why I don't want to see the Bears draft Jentry as intriguing as it may be.  Round 2, maybe but we could be passing up an Edge, DT, or Oline.   Poles has to be smart but also find some offensive playmakers.  The window seems open, but it takes a lot of gelling to happen quick to see it this year. 

[adam]

On 3/14/2025 at 12:32 PM, BearFan PHX said:

out of curiosity, what were Braxton Jones' sack numbers?

Id ask about Amagadge too, but in my mind he gets a fresh start since he came right from injury to being thrown into NFL games without any ramp up. That doesnt mean i expect him to be better (or not!) - Ill just grade him "unknown"

5 sacks in 719 snaps, and 2 in 724 in 2023. So a 2-yr total of 7 sacks in 1443 snaps, about double the rate of our new IOL guys. However, OTs tend it give up more sacks because they are facing off against the elite pass rushers. The best OTs allows 0-2 sacks in 1K snaps. The average guys about 3-5, so Jones is at the backhalf of that range.

[Stinger226]

I am trying to guess what Poles does, my personal projection means nothing. If they think the top 3 LT prospects are potentially better than Kiran and Braxton, they will take one. Campbell and Banks have both been projected as guards. Simmons have never been mentioned inside but has the injury concern. If you're taking one they have to have more upside than Kiran at 10. I don't think he will see that.

I think an above average DL will be more attractive to them and grab a OL prospect in the second round whether LT or fitting in anywhere. I expect them to extend Thuney, that will solidify the IOL for 3 years. I think AZ was right saying the first round won't be about drafting a backup. A second rounder can sit a yr or two to take over if an OL fails. Depth will matter on a good team since injuries happen all the time. 

Who's the backup center? Is Bates staying for that? He hasn't been cut yet and they will know about his health. Murray was resigned to backup the guards. 

[adam]

28 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I am trying to guess what Poles does, my personal projection means nothing. If they think the top 3 LT prospects are potentially better than Kiran and Braxton, they will take one. Campbell and Banks have both been projected as guards. Simmons have never been mentioned inside but has the injury concern. If you're taking one they have to have more upside than Kiran at 10. I don't think he will see that.

I think an above average DL will be more attractive to them and grab a OL prospect in the second round whether LT or fitting in anywhere. I expect them to extend Thuney, that will solidify the IOL for 3 years. I think AZ was right saying the first round won't be about drafting a backup. A second rounder can sit a yr or two to take over if an OL fails. Depth will matter on a good team since injuries happen all the time. 

Who's the backup center? Is Bates staying for that? He hasn't been cut yet and they will know about his health. Murray was resigned to backup the guards. 

I still think drafting Kiran that early was to replace Jones, knowing he would sit a year. So unless you can get the top OT and he is a surefire upgrade at LT, then you almost have to address another position at 10. That is why I think TE (Warren only), WR, RB (Jeanty only), DT, and Edge are all on the table at 10. For whatever reason, I don't think Poles will use 10 on the OL after committing so many resources to it with Thuney, Dalman, and Jackson. If he trades down, sure, but at 10, he is going to want to get a Day 1 starter. 

The other crazy option I was thinking about was trading Braxton during the draft, or at the trading deadline (Poles seems to do that instead of the comp picks). If that is the plan for Jones, then I can see #10 as the best LT. That may be the only way I can see it right now.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

43 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I am trying to guess what Poles does, my personal projection means nothing. If they think the top 3 LT prospects are potentially better than Kiran and Braxton, they will take one. Campbell and Banks have both been projected as guards. Simmons have never been mentioned inside but has the injury concern. If you're taking one they have to have more upside than Kiran at 10. I don't think he will see that.

I think an above average DL will be more attractive to them and grab a OL prospect in the second round whether LT or fitting in anywhere. I expect them to extend Thuney, that will solidify the IOL for 3 years. I think AZ was right saying the first round won't be about drafting a backup. A second rounder can sit a yr or two to take over if an OL fails. Depth will matter on a good team since injuries happen all the time. 

Who's the backup center? Is Bates staying for that? He hasn't been cut yet and they will know about his health. Murray was resigned to backup the guards. 

Banks measured longer at the combine 6-5 instead of 6-4, 33" arms, the 3rd widest wingspan. He might be LT #1 now. Simmons doesn't measure as great as we envision, only has 33" arms as well. 

Stromberg is the back up Center.  If they keep Bates, he can be slotted there too.  The back up depth at G is not great, so Banks, Kiran, and Jones would give depth at G if needed. 

Air Ersery LT, like I said is also a great option if Poles thinks he will last until we pick rd 2.