Consensus Mock Draft - Bears 1st Rounder

[adam]

It is interesting looking at the mock drafts this year as the Bears have no real consensus player pick like in previous years. However, OL is selected in over 50% of the picks. OL, Edge, and RB are the 3 highest position groups. 

About 56% is OL, 19% Edge, 18% RB, and DT at 7%.

Will Campbell - 24.5%
Kelvin Banks - 21.5%
Ashton Jeanty - 11.3%

Others - 42.7%
Mykel Williams 
Omarion Hampton
Josh Simmons 
James Pearce Jr

So it seems that at #10, the Bears will more than likely pick an OL, Edge, or RB. 

[BearFan PHX]

6 hours ago, adam said:

So it seems that at #10, the Bears will more than likely pick an OL, Edge, or RB. 

according to the mocks anyway.

It's MUCH harder to predict what we might do than any other draft I can remember. This is a testament to Poles and Johnson and the whole staff. Our roster, at least on paper, looks as complete as it's been in a while, and we could literally do anything in the draft other than QB.

It's a new era of competency at Halas Hall!

[AZ54]

Not one DT?  We might be witnessing  the best predraft smokescreen ever.  
 

Edit:  now I see DT was buried at the end all the way down at 7%

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Not one DT?  We might be witnessing  the best predraft smokescreen ever.  
 

Edit:  now I see DT was buried at the end all the way down at 7%

there do seem to be more good DTs in this draft than any other position. That could mean taking one at #10, or waiting and grabbing one in the early 2nd round?

[dawhizz]

I think there is an aspect of this where the mock draft pundits convinced themselves so fully that the Bears would be in desperate need of an O-line upgrade come draft time and just haven’t reconsidered based on their offseason additions. That’s not to say they don’t still have a moderate, more depth/future based need there, but I think if they actually thought about it more or reconsidered their initial thoughts, they would be less inclined to just pencil in O-line help. 

[BearFan PHX]

I still think if there was a stud LT we would take him at #10. It's our only real hole. But my personal opinion is that none of the OTs in this draft are going to be great. And if the Bears have a guy they think will be great, then it's almost sure they will take that guy. But if they see them the way I see them, then they could pretty much take any position other than QB

But, dawhizz, .your point that narratives die hard on the pens of sportwriters is absolutely true. Once a story gets into the echo chamber, it bounces around even after new information should have modified it. But it doesnt. Youre absolutely right.

[Stinger226]

[DABEARSDABOMB]

9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I still think if there was a stud LT we would take him at #10. It's our only real hole. But my personal opinion is that none of the OTs in this draft are going to be great. And if the Bears have a guy they think will be great, then it's almost sure they will take that guy. But if they see them the way I see them, then they could pretty much take any position other than QB

But, dawhizz, .your point that narratives die hard on the pens of sportwriters is absolutely true. Once a story gets into the echo chamber, it bounces around even after new information should have modified it. But it doesnt. Youre absolutely right.

This I think is very true. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I still think if there was a stud LT we would take him at #10. It's our only real hole. But my personal opinion is that none of the OTs in this draft are going to be great. And if the Bears have a guy they think will be great, then it's almost sure they will take that guy. But if they see them the way I see them, then they could pretty much take any position other than QB

But, dawhizz, .your point that narratives die hard on the pens of sportwriters is absolutely true. Once a story gets into the echo chamber, it bounces around even after new information should have modified it. But it doesnt. Youre absolutely right.

I started a spreadsheet categorizing measurements and times from the combine. Going to sort by arm length since that seems to be the key.  Surprising, the 15-20 guys I have listed, so far, there are guards with size and arms better than tackles.  To think a half inch or less means so much is troubling too when comparing. I want to find the happy medium of size and skill.

[BearFan PHX]

I spent tonight double checking my beliefs about OT.

If I thought we absolutely had to draft a LT at 10, Id take Banks. But i think he might well be gone before 10.

So I looked at the rest, and only Simmons and Conerly looked OK to me. The rest are in my "no" pile. Conerly is definitely a tier lower, so I guess the big question is...

Is Simmons OK? How does he grade out medically right now? And would I pick a guy who might well be the 20th pick in other years at 10?

I really dont like the idea of Braxton Jones again, and I cant count on Amegadje. Hes too much of an unknown.

So what do we all think of Simmons as our future LT for the next 10 years? Is that possible? He has that kind of ceiling, but is it realistic?

[Stinger226]

If they deem he can be a quality LT, I think they will take him. Most draft mocks have him mid first round not top ten. I totally expect a trade back which creates a better value to take him at. The injury always needs to be considered. 3 big boards have him 17-17-18 with Banks and Membou in front of him. 

[dawhizz]

I don’t love taking a guy at OT who has already had a pretty major knee injury. Sprains and stuff are on thing, a torn patellar tendon is another. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

6 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

So what do we all think of Simmons as our future LT for the next 10 years? Is that possible? He has that kind of ceiling, but is it realistic?

 Donovan Jackson moved to LT for 9 games 6-4 , 315 33-1/2 arms 

Josh Simmons 6-5 317. 33" arms

Simmons has better feet but is known to "catch" a bull rusher.  Coming off an injury worries me, but he was improving game to game until he that.

Jackson must be a no fit for LT even though he played there when needed and did so pretty well.

Just using the arm length metric, you have to wonder how much makes a difference. Especially when Will Campbell's arms measure .375" shorter than Simmons, but he measures 6'6" an inch taller overall. Just break Campbell's arms and set them with a gap to get them longer 😜

[adam]

I still think if they go LT, they are trading Jones either on draft day or at the deadline. I might be wrong but with how the high draft picks work, they almost always have to be a Day 1 starter in some capacity. 

[Stinger226]

9 minutes ago, adam said:

I still think if they go LT, they are trading Jones either on draft day or at the deadline. I might be wrong but with how the high draft picks work, they almost always have to be a Day 1 starter in some capacity. 

Why they traded Braxton? He would be the swing T. They can move Kiran A to guard for depth .

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Why they traded Braxton? He would be the swing T. They can move Kiran A to guard for depth .

because you could potentially get something of value for him. If someone else sees him as a starter, and would pay that value, and we see him as a backup and having that value, then we profit from a trade because of the difference in valuation.

The good teams dont even keep all their good players, because they cant pay them all as starters when the big contract comes due. The smart teams trade them a year before that, like Belichicks Patriots trading Akiem Hicks to us. It's not that they didnt see he had value, it's that they wanted the draft picks so they could get more talent not on a big contract, rather than having Hicks one more year and then losing him as a cap casualty for nothing.

You gotta get value from players that arent in your long term view when you can. And I know that kills fans who love the players on the roster, but its what you have to do to be sustainable.

For example, you wanted to keep Jenkins, because youre a fan of the players, but now we are stronger without him.

[Stinger226]

56 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

because you could potentially get something of value for him. If someone else sees him as a starter, and would pay that value, and we see him as a backup and having that value, then we profit from a trade because of the difference in valuation.

The good teams dont even keep all their good players, because they cant pay them all as starters when the big contract comes due. The smart teams trade them a year before that, like Belichicks Patriots trading Akiem Hicks to us. It's not that they didnt see he had value, it's that they wanted the draft picks so they could get more talent not on a big contract, rather than having Hicks one more year and then losing him as a cap casualty for nothing.

You gotta get value from players that arent in your long term view when you can. And I know that kills fans who love the players on the roster, but its what you have to do to be sustainable.

For example, you wanted to keep Jenkins, because youre a fan of the players, but now we are stronger without him.

So good players go for 4th and 5th round picks. It's better to have a 6th or 7th round pick than quality depth? You make the team OL  better by giving it depth on a cheap contract. I only said to being back Jenkins if on a team friendly deal but they traded for an all pro replacement, not needed any more.

[AZ54]

54 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

because you could potentially get something of value for him. If someone else sees him as a starter, and would pay that value, and we see him as a backup and having that value, then we profit from a trade because of the difference in valuation.

The good teams dont even keep all their good players, because they cant pay them all as starters when the big contract comes due. The smart teams trade them a year before that, like Belichicks Patriots trading Akiem Hicks to us. It's not that they didnt see he had value, it's that they wanted the draft picks so they could get more talent not on a big contract, rather than having Hicks one more year and then losing him as a cap casualty for nothing.

You gotta get value from players that arent in your long term view when you can. And I know that kills fans who love the players on the roster, but its what you have to do to be sustainable.

For example, you wanted to keep Jenkins, because youre a fan of the players, but now we are stronger without him.

The number one value I want this year is seeing Caleb Williams stay on his feet.  Two we are not a good team especially not on offense.  I don’t really view us as being in a position to trade away any depth.  
 

I too was ok keeping Tev on short deal while we drafted his replacement.  Sadly, nobody ever offered me Thuney for next years 4th in those discussions.  
 

the Bears are not going after big FAs next year.  Keeping Braxton as a depth piece this year can still net a comp pick down the road albeit delayed gratification.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

The number one value I want this year is seeing Caleb Williams stay on his feet.

Totally agree. I think Jones is a liability, and i hope we find a replacement for him, or Amagadje steps up.

Maybe some think Jones is serviceable, and it's cool if we disagree. But we definitely agree that keeping Caleb upright is job #1, so if we disagree about what to do about Jones it's because we disagree about our evaluation of him, not whether having a decent LT is important!

[dawhizz]

16 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Totally agree. I think Jones is a liability, and i hope we find a replacement for him, or Amagadje steps up.

Maybe some think Jones is serviceable, and it's cool if we disagree. But we definitely agree that keeping Caleb upright is job #1, so if we disagree about what to do about Jones it's because we disagree about our evaluation of him, not whether having a decent LT is important!

I guess my feeling is that I don’t see one of these particular draft picks being better than Jones this year at LT. It would be different if there were a couple great players who definitely project well to LT, but I feel like we have a bunch of guys who don’t project so cleanly to LT and might be guards.  I’m ok taking that risk with a second round pick on Ersery, Conerly, Zabel, etc. but if I’m taking another tackle at #10 I better be damn sure he’s a LT and I can’t say that about these guys except maybe Simmons who has the injury I’m wary of. Banks is the closest for me. 

[BearFan PHX]

10 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

I guess my feeling is that I don’t see one of these particular draft picks being better than Jones this year at LT. It would be different if there were a couple great players who definitely project well to LT, but I feel like we have a bunch of guys who don’t project so cleanly to LT and might be guards.  I’m ok taking that risk with a second round pick on Ersery, Conerly, Zabel, etc. but if I’m taking another tackle at #10 I better be damn sure he’s a LT and I can’t say that about these guys except maybe Simmons who has the injury I’m wary of. Banks is the closest for me. 

Yeah, for me it's Banks, who will probably be gone, Simmons, but Im afraid of the injury or Conerly who is not a clear cut first round talent. The rest, to my eye, are not going to be good.

Maybe we will trade up for Banks, or maybe we will feel comfortable with Simmons' injury status.

Or maybe we have our eye on a developmental player int he 2nd or 3rd round, and will ride with Jones/Amagadje this year. I just hate that plan because we all agree that Caleb needs protecting, and i think you can get a sack off of Jones anytime you need one with a bull rush. I feel like teams are holding that move in reserve until an important 3rd down. And that's an achilles heel I cant stand!

But like you say, I dont see a clear cut answer, but last night I started really thinking about it, and I realize we really REALLY need a LT. Hmmm

[dawhizz]

16 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yeah, for me it's Banks, who will probably be gone, Simmons, but Im afraid of the injury or Conerly who is not a clear cut first round talent. The rest, to my eye, are not going to be good.

Maybe we will trade up for Banks, or maybe we will feel comfortable with Simmons' injury status.

Or maybe we have our eye on a developmental player int he 2nd or 3rd round, and will ride with Jones/Amagadje this year. I just hate that plan because we all agree that Caleb needs protecting, and i think you can get a sack off of Jones anytime you need one with a bull rush. I feel like teams are holding that move in reserve until an important 3rd down. And that's an achilles heel I cant stand!

But like you say, I dont see a clear cut answer, but last night I started really thinking about it, and I realize we really REALLY need a LT. Hmmm

I think it’s very likely Banks will be available at 10. I know it only takes one but I feel like Campbell and Membou are both rated higher by most and the other teams taking an OT are probably not going to be quite as dispersing as the Bears regarding where an OT projects. Like, even if Campbell isn’t for sure an OT, he’s still going to be immediately startable somewhere on the line for a team like the Pats, Giants, Saints, and Jets. 

[adam]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Why they traded Braxton? He would be the swing T. They can move Kiran A to guard for depth .

It comes down to roster construction. It would be nice to have Jones as a backup, but that's a luxury, especially with Kiran on the roster. I could be wrong but it feels like Poles would want to get max value for Jones if he was planning on not extending him. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, dawhizz said:

I think it’s very likely Banks will be available at 10. I know it only takes one but I feel like Campbell and Membou are both rated higher by most and the other teams taking an OT are probably not going to be quite as dispersing as the Bears regarding where an OT projects. Like, even if Campbell isn’t for sure an OT, he’s still going to be immediately startable somewhere on the line for a team like the Pats, Giants, Saints, and Jets. 

So, I dunno. It seems like some draft sites have it so my favortie picks around pick 17-22 are still there in the 2nd round when we pick again. But DraftBuzz.com seems to value players the way i do, and they have 4 random seed settings for their draft simulator. If you use any but #4 (which is a wild card and not realistic IMO) then Banks is always gone before we pick.

I'd like to see people here using draftbuzz for mocks because it is either the most realistic, or the worst case scenario (if people dont think its realistic).

HB Jeanty almost always falls to us, and that means other players like DT Mason Graham, OT Kelvin Banks, TE Kevin Warren and often WR McMillan are usually gone by our pick.

As Ive said before I really dont trust Will Campbell. Simmons is good, but has surgery risks. To me Membou is a non starter because he is small, and played on the right side. He player with fire, but quality opponents were able to get the better of him, and I see that only continuing in the NFL.

I hear the Bears are talking to the OT from Oregon, so maybe we have some 2nd round stuff that goes beyond my research.

If Banks is there at 10, Id take him, but I do encourage everyone to play with the draftbuzz simulator, and dont use random seed 4. 1 or 2 are the most realistic to my view, or the most worst case if you want to see it that way. Either way we have to be prepared for the draft to go that way, and it isnt pretty!

[Stinger226]

There's a certain group that always goes top 10 regularly. 90% only have Campbell going top 10 but teams  drafts are much different than actual projections . Banks could be next to move but have seen a lot of Membou as the second OL off the board. Top 20 usually has Campbell, Banks, Membou and Simmons in them. Booker is the other name that pops up.

You only need 1 team to like someone. The key to top 10 is QBs. Is it 2, I've seen 3 pop up. It seems one player always drops and one always rises. Banks could be that player.