Sleeper Pick at #10

[adam]

Who is your sleeper pick at #10? Who is no one talking about, but could be a selection at #10?

I am going to say Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss. He is ranked between 13-32 in pretty much every mock but to me, seems a little underrated. 

Why Nolen? He is the most physically gifted DT, had high production, and graded out as one of the best DTs in 2024. He also fits Dennis Allen's scheme and is an ideal size for a 3T. 

He could also be a trade-down option if the Bears stay in the teens.

What are your thoughts?

 

[adam]

According to NFL.com's Draft Tracker, Nolen is the 5th best prospect and 1 of only 6 players with a grade above 6.50. 

[BearFan PHX]

I dont think he is a sleeper - I think youre right he is a real possibility!

[adam]

8 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont think he is a sleeper - I think youre right he is a real possibility!

I have not seen him drafted higher than 13, but right now between 18 and 32 is his range. The weird thing is, he was productive, fits the 3T mold perfectly, has a high PFF grade and measurables. So if you took the school and name off the player, why is he so much worse than Graham?

Playing in the SEC, he had 14 TFL and 6.5 sacks as an All-American.  Graham had 7 TFL and 3.5 sacks as an All-American playing in the Big Ten. Nolen even put up those numbers after transferring from Texas A&M, which feels noteworthy.

 

[dawhizz]

Nolan’s a good pick. I guess if I have to go out of the box, I might say Luther Burden the WR from Missouri. He’s seen as more of a mid 1st/late 1st/early 2nd guy, but if you see DJ and Rome as the outside receivers, Burden might be the ideal slot guy in a Ben Johnson offense based on speed, hands, route running, toughness, and ability be be used in a number of different ways.

[AZ54]

I've already been saying we should draft Nolen at 10 so I can't call him my sleeper pick.  For me he's the ideal pick, with Kenneth Grant the backup choice.   One thing about the stats of Graham vs. Nolen....   Graham lined up next to Grant.  Nolen had some very good players aligned with him as well but not a top 20 pick.     

For my "let's fire Poles" pick:  Shemar Stewart.   Classic looks like Tarzan plays like Jane choice.  

[Stinger226]

No one is picking Nolen nationally but is a realistic pick for 10 as a sleeper. I'm not trying to suck up to AZ but I would love some Kenneth Grant at 10. He would play the NT spot where Nolen is a 3 T where we have Dexter and Jarrett already.

My sleeper pick is Will Johnson/CB. I don't think it's a need but Gordons contract is due this year and Stevenson still has to prove himself. Edge and CB are the two most valuable spots, contract wise, on defense. I would not want this but could understand it.

[Stinger226]

 

[BearFan PHX]

I think the draftbuzz site has Nolen rated higher.

Honestly their draft simulator is a LOT tougher than the others. If you check it out, use random seed 1 or 2, 4 is too out there in my opinion.

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

32 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think the draftbuzz site has Nolen rated higher.

Honestly their draft simulator is a LOT tougher than the others. If you check it out, use random seed 1 or 2, 4 is too out there in my opinion.

 

I used those seeds and got dream drafts.  Must be your algorithm.  But I am also pleased to see Campbell or Banks as options. I fear Jentry right now as he shows alot . Have to compare his grades to other RBs the past 5 years. If he beats them, then maybe. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I used those seeds and got dream drafts.  Must be your algorithm.  But I am also pleased to see Campbell or Banks as options. I fear Jentry right now as he shows alot . Have to compare his grades to other RBs the past 5 years. If he beats them, then maybe. 

cool that you did - who were you taking at 10 mostly? For me Banks was almost always gone.

[Stinger226]

Profootballnetwork has a easy to use simulator. They keep changing the order according to how people move up and fall back in the draft buzz. None are completely spot on but something to play with.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

cool that you did - who were you taking at 10 mostly? For me Banks was almost always gone.

One take, using#1 ..just now. 

I regret not getting an Edge, but couldn't pass S ranked 21st best player available. Emmanwori might be the next Polomalu.  Will Campbell might be a guard for us, but get him up to speed at LT and worst case he replaces Thuney next year. Ty Williams fills a needed NT depth position that he could surpass Billings at sooner rather than later.  Judkins has low miles and can be a bell cow as he thrives at attacking gaps. Johnsons offense run scheme attacks gaps, so he seems perfect. TE, Mitch Evans has untapped potential that his best days are ahead of him.  The last pick I made was a S because I forgot I got the best SS already and I skipped the last pick because the site doesn't let me save the draft without giving my email.

Using #2 next...

[Mongo3451]

Tyler Warren

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

One take, using#1 ..just now. 

I regret not getting an Edge, but couldn't pass S ranked 21st best player available. Emmanwori might be the next Polomalu.  Will Campbell might be a guard for us, but get him up to speed at LT and worst case he replaces Thuney next year. Ty Williams fills a needed NT depth position that he could surpass Billings at sooner rather than later.  Judkins has low miles and can be a bell cow as he thrives at attacking gaps. Johnsons offense run scheme attacks gaps, so he seems perfect. TE, Mitch Evans has untapped potential that his best days are ahead of him.  The last pick I made was a S because I forgot I got the best SS already and I skipped the last pick because the site doesn't let me save the draft without giving my email.

Using #2 next...

AH yes. Thank you! So Jeanty does seem to fall a lot to us on draftbuzz, and personally I don't like Campbell but he is usually there too.

Banks is almost always gone by 10 on draft buzz, but available until pick 17 or 20 on most other sites.

This is why Im trying to figure out what I think about Simmons!

[ASHKUM BEAR]

53 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

AH yes. Thank you! So Jeanty does seem to fall a lot to us on draftbuzz, and personally I don't like Campbell but he is usually there too.

Banks is almost always gone by 10 on draft buzz, but available until pick 17 or 20 on most other sites.

This is why Im trying to figure out what I think about Simmons!

Campbell is a grinder, leader etc that excelled by his attitude.  That is one reason I like him. He would fill a spot, hopefully at LT but worst case inside. LSU turns out players and not saying he will or won't turn, but last year I was good with Jayden Daniel's and WR Brian Thomas Jr.  Many of these players we are looking at might not even play much year one because we are sitting on a roster that is near filled.  We can draft to replace and maintain the cap and let the player grow and earn jobs instead of handing them out 

Simmons doesn't have much more body size wise and recovering from a torn petallar tendon, which is a 6-12 month recovery for normal people. He will have to be evaluated by his game tape. If you find time, I probably won't, but he is called out for being a catcher.  He has technique and athletic ability.

Kevin Banks was gone and if it was between him or Campbell, I'd be torn to choose. Banks seems to have that better chance to be a long term LT.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Campbell is a grinder, leader etc that excelled by his attitude.  That is one reason I like him. He would fill a spot, hopefully at LT but worst case inside. LSU turns out players and not saying he will or won't turn, but last year I was good with Jayden Daniel's and WR Brian Thomas Jr.  Many of these players we are looking at might not even play much year one because we are sitting on a roster that is near filled.  We can draft to replace and maintain the cap and let the player grow and earn jobs instead of handing them out 

Simmons doesn't have much more body size wise and recovering from a torn petallar tendon, which is a 6-12 month recovery for normal people. He will have to be evaluated by his game tape. If you find time, I probably won't, but he is called out for being a catcher.  He has technique and athletic ability.

Kevin Banks was gone and if it was between him or Campbell, I'd be torn to choose. Banks seems to have that better chance to be a long term LT.

Agree 100%. I woulds take Banks at 10 with no reservations, and consider myself lucky to have him.

I gotta say, Ive seen a bunch of film now on Cambpell, and he is awful in 3 ways. First he plays too high. He has great strength so it doesnt always hurt him, but in the NFL, he will get pushed back with the bull rush, just like Braxton Jones. Secondly, he gets beat to the outside. Some say his arms are too short to recover from an outside move, but whatever the reason, players get the edge on him. But worst and most damning, he is awful at hand fighting and gets beat INSIDE way too often. To me that's a cardinal sin.

Maybe he will be a good OG, but i dont think we should be spending pick 10 on a guard, especially with the roster as it is right now. I do see the value of having a guy for the future, but I dont think thats the best use of our first round pick?

I like what Ive seen if Simmons, and if I knew he would be healthy, Id take him. But it's an unknown at best.

I'd like to think we will be OK with Jones or Amagadje this year, but more and more Im starting to think that's a mistake, and we need an OT in the first round.

This is a tough spot to be in. If Banks falls, then it's easy, but if he goes before we pick, I feel like we're going to have to take a chance on Simmons, and that could really backfire. Or it could turn out great. But it's a risk for sure.

[Mongo3451]

I like Campbell over Banks.  Campbell started three years and gave up four sacks.  I don't believe there is a truly good left tackle in this draft.  I'm starting to think we draft EDGE at 10, with a chance of Jeanty/Warren...

[ASHKUM BEAR]

54 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Agree 100%. I woulds take Banks at 10 with no reservations, and consider myself lucky to have him.

I gotta say, Ive seen a bunch of film now on Cambpell, and he is awful in 3 ways. First he plays too high. He has great strength so it doesnt always hurt him, but in the NFL, he will get pushed back with the bull rush, just like Braxton Jones. Secondly, he gets beat to the outside. Some say his arms are too short to recover from an outside move, but whatever the reason, players get the edge on him. But worst and most damning, he is awful at hand fighting and gets beat INSIDE way too often. To me that's a cardinal sin.

Maybe he will be a good OG, but i dont think we should be spending pick 10 on a guard, especially with the roster as it is right now. I do see the value of having a guy for the future, but I dont think thats the best use of our first round pick?

I like what Ive seen if Simmons, and if I knew he would be healthy, Id take him. But it's an unknown at best.

I'd like to think we will be OK with Jones or Amagadje this year, but more and more Im starting to think that's a mistake, and we need an OT in the first round.

This is a tough spot to be in. If Banks falls, then it's easy, but if he goes before we pick, I feel like we're going to have to take a chance on Simmons, and that could really backfire. Or it could turn out great. But it's a risk for sure.

LT should be in consideration every year until you nail it.  Most can play another position on the line unlike a QB.  Glad we have that position finally nailed.  Now the Bears need to get LT and DE right.  There not much in this draft for those either that fit, so the work is cut out.  It would be a miracle if Poles can find a trade partner that nets a potential high 1st next year while moving down 15 spots. Like a trade in the division, like Minny, we get pick and 24 and their  2026 1st.  The finish last in the division and we could be picking around 8 next year. 

[BearFan PHX]

7 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I like Campbell over Banks.  Campbell started three years and gave up four sacks.  I don't believe there is a truly good left tackle in this draft.  I'm starting to think we draft EDGE at 10, with a chance of Jeanty/Warren...

he was also protecting Jaden Daniels, who ran away from sacks. There is lots of film of Campbell letting guys through, they just didnt get Daniels down?

My gut says that Campbell will not make it as a LT in the NFL, but ha does have great physical tools, so with the right coaching, maybe he will prove me wrong.

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

LT should be in consideration every year until you nail it.  Most can play another position on the line unlike a QB.  Glad we have that position finally nailed.  Now the Bears need to get LT and DE right.  There not much in this draft for those either that fit, so the work is cut out.  It would be a miracle if Poles can find a trade partner that nets a potential high 1st next year while moving down 15 spots. Like a trade in the division, like Minny, we get pick and 24 and their  2026 1st.  The finish last in the division and we could be picking around 8 next year. 

yes it is not ideal at all this year at pick 10

[Stinger226]

A lot of drafts, I'm seeing Campbell drop out of the top 10. Rarely do you see a OG go top 10. Quentin Nelson was a 6th pick but Campbell  is not close to his grade.

The short arm aspect is real , there's only 1 LT starting with arms his length.  compared to Braxton 35.4 and Kiran at 36.2, he's 32.6. He has small hands and wingspan is 78 , Braxton 84 and Kiran at 85. Say it doesn't matter but the league tells you it does.

Banks arm length is 33.5, 1 inch more than Campbell, so he's projected at OG a lot to. Someone will play LT out of this group but very few fit that mold.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

I like Campbell over Banks.  Campbell started three years and gave up four sacks.  I don't believe there is a truly good left tackle in this draft.  I'm starting to think we draft EDGE at 10, with a chance of Jeanty/Warren...

Myles Williams at 10 FTW 

[dawhizz]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

he was also protecting Jaden Daniels, who ran away from sacks. There is lots of film of Campbell letting guys through, they just didnt get Daniels down?

My gut says that Campbell will not make it as a LT in the NFL, but ha does have great physical tools, so with the right coaching, maybe he will prove me wrong.

Seems like we just did the Campbell exercise with Peter Skoronski a few years ago. He was a well graded, fundamentally sound college LT that probably didn’t translate well to LT or maybe tackle at all. Campbell is taller, but has the same short arms problem. Cut to two years later and Skoronski is a very good guard but so obviously not a fit at LT that the Titans overpaid for Dan Moore. 
 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/peter-skoronski/3200534b-4f46-7199-f435-c28e7b2fe41f

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/will-campbell/32004341-4d67-0633-da01-28e834689a13

 

[Stinger226]

Last year Moore was ranked 46th by pff. He had 12 sacks and 5 penalties,and got 4 years 82 mil.. Braxton will get over 20 mil a year next year.