#10 Pick Prediction

[AZ54]

14 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

It just depends on how you move i think. Thats why watching them play football is the best measure. If your feet are a little better then your arm length can be a little shorter etc. Longer is better of course, but it isnt the only thing.
 

 

I see it that way too - pretty strongly, but if both are on the board and the bears take Campbell, I'll be willing to see if they were right, and rooting for him of course.

I just honestly believe they see the same thing I see, which scares me about other teams taking Membou or Campbell first - they see the tape too.

If we draft Banks I'm betting we trade Braxton.  I don't think we'd get anything in this years draft because of his injury.  It likely wouldn't even be a trade until he's healthy in camp and showing it in preseason.  Kiran has too much potential and should be good enough this year to be our swing OT.   Braxton would not look good at all at RT.  Maybe the team that drafts Will Campbell finds out in camp they need a LT?  

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Maybe the team that drafts Will Campbell finds out in camp they need a LT?  

LOL

[Stinger226]

I don't have a problem if we get Banks, I just don't think they are going to draft a OT in the first round. Now if they trade down, I think the attention they have given to Conerly makes him more likely to be a Bear. 

Everything is projection, with  only 6 blue players in the draft 10-50 could be drastically different than people are predicting. The teams don't have a single big board exactly the same. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

30 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I don't have a problem if we get Banks, I just don't think they are going to draft a OT in the first round. Now if they trade down, I think the attention they have given to Conerly makes him more likely to be a Bear. 

Everything is projection, with  only 6 blue players in the draft 10-50 could be drastically different than people are predicting. The teams don't have a single big board exactly the same. 

Clay Harbor was on the score said the Bears could go Banks.  He doesn't understand the non love he is getting.  He won the outland trophy, only missed a game or two his whole college career, would be better than Braxton out the gate.  But his projection is 15-20, so do the Bears reach.  He favors adding a TE and even said don't be surprised to see the Bears draft RB#2 at 10.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I don't have a problem if we get Banks, I just don't think they are going to draft a OT in the first round. Now if they trade down, I think the attention they have given to Conerly makes him more likely to be a Bear. 

Everything is projection, with  only 6 blue players in the draft 10-50 could be drastically different than people are predicting. The teams don't have a single big board exactly the same. 

Saw one video last night where one draftnik said he had nearly the same grades on players from 8 to 40.  At that point BPA just becomes team need.  

[BearFan PHX]

If you believe in a player, and they are ranked 17 on your board, and you take them at 10 because none of the players from 10 to 17 fit your needs, its not really a reach to take him.

Personally, I have Banks ranked a lot higher, and I fear so do other teams in the top 10.

[AZ54]

18 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

If you believe in a player, and they are ranked 17 on your board, and you take them at 10 because none of the players from 10 to 17 fit your needs, its not really a reach to take him.

Personally, I have Banks ranked a lot higher, and I fear so do other teams in the top 10.

Correct and the pundits will still criticize the “reach”.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Correct and the pundits will still criticize the “reach”.  

its as if the best thing you could do would be to get a 4th round level pick in the 7th round. And while that IS good, it's still a 4th round pick. The best thing you can do is to put studs in positions where they can help you, and if that means taking a 17th pick guy at pick 10 because your next pick isnt until 39, then you do it.

But I dont see Banks as a 17th pick anyway. I hope he is still there at 10.

[Stinger226]

We all have our opinion and people we think would be best for the team. I think whoever they take at 10 needs to be special, not just a player that becomes a NFL starter. Braxton was an NFL starter day one and was a fifth round pick. 

Pundits are pretty consistent with 6 all pro player types available in the draft. A few say 8 and of course a few could surprise but I think if we get the chance, we will draft one of these. If not one falls then it could be 10 different players. 

In one week the conversation starts with the mistake they made by taking so and so at 10. I trust them to get it right.

[BearFan PHX]

21 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

We all have our opinion and people we think would be best for the team. I think whoever they take at 10 needs to be special, not just a player that becomes a NFL starter. Braxton was an NFL starter day one and was a fifth round pick. 

Pundits are pretty consistent with 6 all pro player types available in the draft. A few say 8 and of course a few could surprise but I think if we get the chance, we will draft one of these. If not one falls then it could be 10 different players. 

In one week the conversation starts with the mistake they made by taking so and so at 10. I trust them to get it right.

I'll just say this - starting, and being starter quality are not always the same thing.

[AZ54]

12 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I'll just say this - starting, and being starter quality are not always the same thing.

Exactly.  The Bears Oline was so bad the opportunity for a 5th Rd pick to start in week 1 was wide open.  To Braxton's credit he came in and earned it.  The issue is we haven't gotten the growth expected in years 2 and 3.   

[BearFan PHX]

7 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Exactly.  The Bears Oline was so bad the opportunity for a 5th Rd pick to start in week 1 was wide open.  To Braxton's credit he came in and earned it.  The issue is we haven't gotten the growth expected in years 2 and 3.   

exactly - we got great value from that pick, but we did not get great blocking from him.

[Mongo3451]

25 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I'll just say this - starting, and being starter quality are not always the same thing.

Somewhere J'Marcus Webb is smoking a fatty and laughing his ass off...

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Somewhere J'Marcus Webb is smoking a fatty and laughing his ass off...

LOL

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Exactly.  The Bears Oline was so bad the opportunity for a 5th Rd pick to start in week 1 was wide open.  To Braxton's credit he came in and earned it.  The issue is we haven't gotten the growth expected in years 2 and 3.   

I agree with that so he drafted Kiran to give him competition. He wasn't supposed to see the field last year but he did. So now healthy he gets his shot. 

Wright was a  top 10 pick, his last 2 yrs haven't been stellar but everyone thinks pro bowl potential.

If we draft a rookie, automatically he will play well and we live happily ever after. The truth is, not very often do you get instant success with high draft picks. There are exceptions but usually they have to develop.

I would be willing to bet Braxton has a better yr than the rookie we could have drafted to take his place.( I still think we are not taking one in the first round)

Contract yr, has Kiran breathing down his neck. I expect to see improvement this year.

[Mongo3451]

14 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Contract yr, has Kiran breathing down his neck. I expect to see improvement this year.

I do too.  He's been asked to bulk up versus stay lean like Flus wanted.  That will help his anchor.  He'll have Thuney next to him and helps in several ways.  He finally has a good OL coach that will hold them all accountable for proper strength and conditioning.  If not, I heard Thuney will.  Lastly, your mention of his contract year tells me that he's all in.  He saw what happened to Jenkins and shouldn't want a prove it contract, when he can get a long term deal with life changing dollars.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I do too.  He's been asked to bulk up versus stay lean like Flus wanted.  That will help his anchor.  He'll have Thuney next to him and helps in several ways.  He finally has a good OL coach that will hold them all accountable for proper strength and conditioning.  If not, I heard Thuney will.  Lastly, your mention of his contract year tells me that he's all in.  He saw what happened to Jenkins and shouldn't want a prove it contract, when he can get a long term deal with life changing dollars.

I have no doubt that Braxton Jones will be motivated this year, but i dont think even his best will be good enough to be the LT on this team going forward. hes been a great value, and a team player when the roster sucked and holes were everywhere, but now that so many are filled, the spotlight turns to his position, one of the most important on the field, and hobbling along with a substandard player that needs Thuney next to him, and growth and motivation to project to succeed seems too much.

I think the likelihood of Amagadje being our starting LT in 2 years is much greater than Braxton's and so of course I think we are spending a high pick on LT. I personally hope it's Banks at 10, but it could be Ersery at 41 for example.

[Stinger226]

So for all the Braxton haters, if he plays well this year that still doesn't change your mind?

He was 21st out of 141  OTs in the NFL . He did have 5 sacks  and 7 penalties on 719 snaps.

Banks had 935 snaps with 1 sack and 7 penalties. 

I will be interested to see what Banks first year stats are and Braxton 2025 stats are to see how much better banks is. 

Braxton has been a average LT, Kiran A was drafted to compete and possibly take his job. I expect a LT drafted but just not in the first round.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

So for all the Braxton haters, if he plays well this year that still doesn't change your mind?

Of course. Any player that kicks ass on the field earns the respect that this is currently their level. Nothing said before can ever overshadow what they do on the field, or put on tape. The only caveat to that is that a couple good games doesn't overshadow a long history. If you do it, and do it consistently over multiple weeks, or the whole season, especially when against good opponents, then hell yeah.

[AZ54]

With all this talk about Banks, Adam Mason brought up a great point that he is going to be very good trade bait for a trade down.  There are several teams behind us that really need a LT.  He is the best LT prospect in this draft especially if you need someone in Week 1.  Jeanty could be the other trade bait...with my dream trade back to Dallas at 12 and yes that would come at a heavy price for Dallas. 

Maybe if we do that deal to 12 and then SF doesn't take Banks we could trade back again to SEA at 18.  Those two trade backs could see us end up with three 3rd Rd picks.  Six picks in the top 82 out of this draft could fill in some very good depth on our roster.   

[DABEARSDABOMB]

47 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

With all this talk about Banks, Adam Mason brought up a great point that he is going to be very good trade bait for a trade down.  There are several teams behind us that really need a LT.  He is the best LT prospect in this draft especially if you need someone in Week 1.  Jeanty could be the other trade bait...with my dream trade back to Dallas at 12 and yes that would come at a heavy price for Dallas. 

Maybe if we do that deal to 12 and then SF doesn't take Banks we could trade back again to SEA at 18.  Those two trade backs could see us end up with three 3rd Rd picks.  Six picks in the top 82 out of this draft could fill in some very good depth on our roster.   

I’d be good with that. 

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

With all this talk about Banks, Adam Mason brought up a great point that he is going to be very good trade bait for a trade down.  There are several teams behind us that really need a LT.  He is the best LT prospect in this draft especially if you need someone in Week 1.  Jeanty could be the other trade bait...with my dream trade back to Dallas at 12 and yes that would come at a heavy price for Dallas. 

Maybe if we do that deal to 12 and then SF doesn't take Banks we could trade back again to SEA at 18.  Those two trade backs could see us end up with three 3rd Rd picks.  Six picks in the top 82 out of this draft could fill in some very good depth on our roster.   

I think if any blue players drop, it gives us an opportunity to trade back. Any of our needs would be better filled with a couple extra top 100 picks. 

There's no position that is a weakness that we HAVE to fill . 

We can get by with a second round RB, LT, DE,DT as our  most realistic needs. S, WR, LB, TE are all depth picks this year. 

Seattle has extra picks in 2nd and 3rd round. They could draft WR, TE,LT . If competition for the 10 pick, get pick 52 and 92 . That's 6 picks in top 92.  

Kenneth Grant /DT 

Aire Ersery/LT 

Landon Jackson /DE 

Kaleb Johnson / RB

Kevin Winston Jr /S

Terrance Ferguson /TE 

That's 6 potential starters by year 2. 

[BearFan PHX]

17 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Kenneth Grant /DT 

Aire Ersery/LT 

Landon Jackson /DE 

Kaleb Johnson / RB

Kevin Winston Jr /S

Terrance Ferguson /TE 

That's 6 potential starters by year 2. 

Lots of good names there - they would give us better depth and make us more solid in lots of ways.

I also think there is something to be said for those core 6 guys on your team who are superheroes. We wont be back here again any time soon (we hope) so we should probably grab an impact player here to be a superhero.

And dammit thats a good argument for getting a dominant DT at 10.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Lots of good names there - they would give us better depth and make us more solid in lots of ways.

I also think there is something to be said for those core 6 guys on your team who are superheroes. We wont be back here again any time soon (we hope) so we should probably grab an impact player here to be a superhero.

And dammit thats a good argument for getting a dominant DT at 10.

I think they will probably draft a blue player if available those are projected to be the stars. There will be  some draftees that become great players, it's never a large number but those are unknown now. So a team may have a different list of blue players and find one. 50% of first  round players never live up to expectations. It's all a crap shoot, if Poles finds us 5 or 6 players that contribute and a couple could become stars, I would be happy. Since becoming a GM, he has the highest % of first 2 rounds picks that are starting. It was a  91% rate. 

Caleb, Brisker, Gordon, Wright, Odunze, Dexter, Stevenson. Who am I missing? One has to not be a starter to be 91%.