#10 Pick Prediction

[Stinger226]

I don't want Stewart but you may be right. With his traits, why didn't he produce more stats? I think I read somewhere he has 102 pressures in the last 2 yrs. If that's true he is affecting the game just needs to finish better .

What position would have the biggest impact in this team in the first year? 

Jeanty, Warren, Golden all could be talked about as opening up the offense more.

I think sacks would make a big difference which could be DT or DE. One great pass rusher would make the DL stout with Sweat and Dexter. 

A LT to solidify the OL? The problem is every rookie has a learning curve plus this draft is considered weak for LT.

I hope Mason Graham drops and the conversation stops. Otherwise we have to see the players they value. 

It's really going to be the combo of our first 4 picks that's going to matter. I want a ( any order) LT, RB, DT and DE. 

Two different people can watch one play and come out with a different opinion.. That Phil tape you posted is an example. One play Banks got pushed back into the QB but they didn't sack him. For you,  Banks won that play. Someone else says he gave up a pressure and that was a loss  play. This isn't a science, it's just what we see. 

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, dawhizz said:

The more I think about it, the more I think we are all just overlooking the obvious pick for the Bears if they stick at #10 (and assuming Jeanty is gone) and it's because it's a guy most of us don't really want, and that's Shemar Stewart, the edge from Texas A&M who only manages 4.5 sacks in three years.  But if you look at everything else, it looks like a Poles pick.

1. So far he has only drafted players he brought in for a visit.  Stewart checks that box.

2. Poles has showed a propensity to draft high RAS guys.  Stewart scores a perfect 10.0 RAS.

3. Poles and the coaching staff has preached building through the trenches so he checks that box.

4. There is a need for another pass rusher to go with Sweat, Dayo, and Booker.  

5. Size seems to fit the Dennis Allen mold.

6. In a draft that's really not that great at the top, maybe you just draft the guy with the best traits and trust your new coaching staff.

I want nothing to do with him.  For all the debate we’ve had about the various analysts and their opinions the one constant is that none are enamored with Stewart’s play.  I’ve heard a couple say that even his pressures are of the low quality variety such as screens.  Almost every conversation about Stewart starts with his RAS score.  Usually ends there too.  

[dawhizz]

54 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I want nothing to do with him.  For all the debate we’ve had about the various analysts and their opinions the one constant is that none are enamored with Stewart’s play.  I’ve heard a couple say that even his pressures are of the low quality variety such as screens.  Almost every conversation about Stewart starts with his RAS score.  Usually ends there too.  

Believe me, I don't really want him either, I'm just pointing out that it checks a lot of Poles boxes based on previous picks.  Or maybe I'm just trying to set my expectation as low as possible . . . 

[AZ54]

Jeremiah’s final ranking.  Some shocking names are way down the list.  Nolen, Banks, Grant.   On the flip side he has Warren and Loveland at 6 and 7 which I don’t see at all.  Given all these wild variations in player rankings this is going to be a weird draft.   
 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2025-nfl-draft-class

[dawhizz]

13 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Jeremiah’s final ranking.  Some shocking names are way down the list.  Nolen, Banks, Grant.   On the flip side he has Warren and Loveland at 6 and 7 which I don’t see at all.  Given all these wild variations in player rankings this is going to be a weird draft.   
 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2025-nfl-draft-class

I’m definitely trying to get myself to not consider and picks a “reach”. It seems like there are real questions about even projected top 10-20 picks where I really can’t blame you if you decide some guy who most have a late first or early second round pick on goes much higher. Like, I don’t think it happens, but I’m not sure there’s that much of a difference between Ersery and Banks to justify me being satisfied with one pick at #10 and think the other is a reach. Same for, like, Mykel Williams and Nic Scourton. Gonna be weird for sure. 

[AZ54]

34 minutes ago, dawhizz said:

I’m definitely trying to get myself to not consider and picks a “reach”. It seems like there are real questions about even projected top 10-20 picks where I really can’t blame you if you decide some guy who most have a late first or early second round pick on goes much higher. Like, I don’t think it happens, but I’m not sure there’s that much of a difference between Ersery and Banks to justify me being satisfied with one pick at #10 and think the other is a reach. Same for, like, Mykel Williams and Nic Scourton. Gonna be weird for sure. 

I think he had Ersery listed at 89 overall.  Someone I thought was a 2nd Rd lock.  

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I think he had Ersery listed at 89 overall.  Someone I thought was a 2nd Rd lock.  

and on draftbuzz he doesnt make it out of the 1st round now, usually going in the 20s.

I think it's hard to know where these guys will go. And its hard to trust the experts on this too, because if being an expert made you right, then the experts would agree, and they dont.

[Stinger226]

I think the fact some of the smartest scouts doing analyzing are all over the place explains the 10-50 same players mentality. If he's correct, we getting a good player at 72. Trading back a couple of times could net us great value w extra picks.

I totally agree with Campbell not being top 10 mainly because he ends up at guard instead of tackle.

Most are consistent with the top 6 players. Hunter and Carter will never reach us and Walker just doesn't seem like a scheme fit. I'm finding it more than likely Jeanty and Warren never get there either. Hope Mason Graham slips. 

If Johnson wants a weapon first don't discount Golden could be our first pick He is consistently top 20 on mocks I've seen lately. Under 4.3 speed will grab Ben's attention.

[BearFan PHX]

14 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I think the fact some of the smartest scouts doing analyzing are all over the place explains the 10-50 same players mentality. If he's correct, we getting a good player at 72. Trading back a couple of times could net us great value w extra picks.

I totally agree with Campbell not being top 10 mainly because he ends up at guard instead of tackle.

Most are consistent with the top 6 players. Hunter and Carter will never reach us and Walker just doesn't seem like a scheme fit. I'm finding it more than likely Jeanty and Warren never get there either. Hope Mason Graham slips. 

If Johnson wants a weapon first don't discount Golden could be our first pick He is consistently top 20 on mocks I've seen lately. Under 4.3 speed will grab Ben's attention.

I think a lot of this is an echo chamber too. Your sources tell you a point of view, and then they re-enforce it, until you (anyone not YOU)  feel like its true because its confirmed, but the confirmation is really just the same echo chamber.

After all the dust clears, dont sleep on Banks. i just hope he is still there when we get our pick.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I think part of it is - a lot of players haven't separated themselves from the pack. This is both a good and bad thing in this draft. The bad - not a lot have separated as upper echelon talent - meaning high end of the draft is devoid relative to most years.  The good - there is a HUGE amount of players that appear to be pretty good prospects with good potential, but warts - and right now there are a LOT of players in that camp - those are players that in most drafts may be picks 20-40 and than you can bifurcate a window for 40-60 but this year you have a ton in the echelon of 15-60 and than 60-100 might still be really deep.  Obviously some differentiation between the person at 15 and 60 - but because they are so close the isolated view points of one team and another team may actual be a bit more polarizing which can drive very different outcomes in the actual draft.  

[Stinger226]

34 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think a lot of this is an echo chamber too. Your sources tell you a point of view, and then they re-enforce it, until you (anyone not YOU)  feel like its true because its confirmed, but the confirmation is really just the same echo chamber.

After all the dust clears, dont sleep on Banks. i just hope he is still there when we get our pick.

You're correct, not any different than your echo chamber. If Banks is as good as you say he is is, he will be gone before 10. Most predicted the teens. We'll see who's opinion wins out.

[BearFan PHX]

48 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

You're correct, not any different than your echo chamber. If Banks is as good as you say he is is, he will be gone before 10. Most predicted the teens. We'll see who's opinion wins out.

I dont have an echo chamber, because I dont care what any of them say!

I just look at the film, and make up my own mind. Maybe I'm wrong on my own, but it's not because of an echo chamber!

When you (or anyone!) reads the writers, then the narratives start to pile up, and people find patterns, like faces in clouds. We cant help it. Its the nature of believing there are such things as draft experts, and that what they say is data. It isn't. Brugler (for example) doesnt know any more than the other experts do. And I can prove it:

If you ask 10 chemistry experts a chemistry question, they will all give you the same correct answer. That is a strong indication that being a chemistry expert means you know about chemistry. This goes for many fields of study and expertise.

BUT if you ask 10 top draft experts who the Bears will pick at 10, they will all disagree! Therefore, even if one is right, then you can say 9 out of 10 draft experts are wrong about any given question. Maybe even 10 out of 10.

When all the experts disagree, that means being an expert doesn't mean anything. So their opinion is as good as anyone elses.

And Im surprised at it frankly. When I look at film of Campbell and Banks it isnt even close for me. It just pops out. I feel like any random person if they watched the film I watched, and looked for the traits i listed a few posts earlier, or even just how smooth they look doing it, would see it too, as clear as day. It's really obvious.

How these experts can possibly say Campbell is the better prospect is confounding. It's like saying 2+2=5 - to me it isn't murky, or "one guy is better at ______ and the other is better at ________" it's just so obvious. Banks is better than Campbell in every way.

So the experts are reading too much, or theyre looking at 40 times or something. I haven't looked at Campbell's or Banks' combine numbers once. I dont care what the common single phrase about a player is "short arms" or "hasnt progressed" and we all know how deceiving stats can be. These arent data points, they're STORIES for an audience that wants to read them.

In an example you'll agree with, look at Erik Lambert! In the past 2 weeks he has stories that claim we're definitely taking at least 15 different players, including Jeanty, Omarion Hampton and TreVayon Henderson at RB with pick 10! He's got CBs, DTs, all three OTs.

15 different answers and rumors. This isnt informative journalism - it's not even MEANT to be - its STORYTELLING. And being right isnt as important as being entertaining. Being provacative is more important than being right!

We live in a world of sports writers, many of whom write, as if it were the truth, that Caleb had a really bad rookie year, I have to call BS. I dont know why theyre so stupid. I dont know what affects them so that presumably intelligent people start saying these things. It's kind of scary really. So far from reality. Makes you wonder about other experts in politics, or economics, or medicine or anything!

But no matter how many experts say that Membou or Omarion Hampton are top notch football players, I can see the emperor is naked. He just is.

Can they possibly develop in the NFL? Of course. Theyre kids. Who can say when the light might go on for a 23 year old and suddenly they get it?

But we CAN value where they're at right now as a prospect, what traits they show, what they put on the film. and if you look past how may sacks they're deemed responsible for by PFF, and instead just look at how they do their blocking on film as an athlete; anchor, bend etc etc then the good ones are easy to see from the bad ones.

I dont have a show or a way to get clicks on this. I'm just a Bears fan talking about what we should do. So stories aside, I can tell you factually that Banks is a lot better than Campbell or Membou as a LT prospect. And I can tell you that Banks has everything he needs to become a great NFL player. at LT The rest is just insane.

Now, we CAN debate things like whether Jeanty is a better pick than Banks. That's not something you can see on tape. That's a much more complicated, because it's two different positions, etc.

But player evals themselves at the top of the draft should be easy. If youre a top 10 pick, it should shine in an obvious way on the tape. And it does. He's not even "OT1 in a draft that is lacking in OTs" thats a narrative. Who the other OTs are doesnt change him as a prospect. He's just a singular person, and you can watch his tape and project him into the NFL based on his current level.

Banks is a lot better than Campbell or Membou. It's not really an opinion. The film is the film.

[Stinger226]

We all just have opinions right and wrong. I mention highly respected people and their opinions and it's an echo chamber. You keep mentioning Draft Buzz and Phil and his dad. Explain to me how that's different?

NFL drafting is not a science like chemistry, there is no wrong or right opinions before a draft. After the draft 50% of the first round picks fail.

It doesn't matter who I like or you like that's just fantasy football. I think we are trying to predict who the Bears pick. It's not whether mine or your opinion turns out true. Technically we won't know the answer to these questions for 3 years. That's the amount of time most prospects take to develop.

I still think Caleb will be the best QB out of the last draft but he surely wasn't last year. We can't base a statement in one year of information. Also both could be all pro players or not.

The point is this debate of ours is passionate, entertaining or stupid but it actually doesn't matter, it's just sport conversations NFL fans have.

I have a lot of Packers fans as friends. This really isn't any different than those conservation's but it's more fun when the Bears are better.

I look at podcasts,, articles, mock drafts not because I'm trying to think I'm smarter than them , it's just entertainment. We are in the dawn of a consistent winning bear's team and we all should be very happy. I think it's actually going to happen this time.

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Banks is a lot better than Campbell or Membou. It's not really an opinion. The film is the film.

This sums up a lot.  People see things in different ways.  The how, what and why of a football player is not a science.  It's an educated feel.  Back to seeing things differently.  Rinse and repeat.  I have this unshakeable vibe on Ashton Jeanty and it makes no sense for what my philosophy is.  The human element can never be validated...

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

This sums up a lot.  People see things in different ways.  The how, what and why of a football player is not a science.  It's an educated feel.  Back to seeing things differently.  Rinse and repeat.  I have this unshakeable vibe on Ashton Jeanty and it makes no sense for what my philosophy is.  The human element can never be validated...

youre right of course. and once you get out of the first 10 or 20 picks, it gets a lot grayer and thats where the scouts earn their money. But looking at Banks and Campbell, it's hard to imagine what human bias would make someone think Campbell was better on film.

On stats, on measurables, 40 yard dashes, and what other people said about them sure it can get confusing. But i truly think if all of us on this board, watch the film i did, we would all see it the same way. Banks glides, Campbell seems like clumsy chaos.

Now regarding Jeanty, thats different. If the question is Banks (or whoever) vs Jeanty, thats not science I agree. It's apples and oranges, and multidimensional, and different people can have different ideas.

Im not saying its obvious to take Banks over Jeanty! I couldnt possibly. Im saying taking Banks over Campbell, thats apples to apples.

[Mongo3451]

15 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

youre right of course. and once you get out of the first 10 or 20 picks, it gets a lot grayer and thats where the scouts earn their money. But looking at Banks and Campbell, it's hard to imagine what human bias would make someone think Campbell was better on film.

On stats, on measurables, 40 yard dashes, and what other people said about them sure it can get confusing. But i truly think if all of us on this board, watch the film i did, we would all see it the same way. Banks glides, Campbell seems like clumsy chaos.

Now regarding Jeanty, thats different. If the question is Banks (or whoever) vs Jeanty, thats not science I agree. It's apples and oranges, and multidimensional, and different people can have different ideas.

Im not saying its obvious to take Banks over Jeanty! I couldnt possibly. Im saying taking Banks over Campbell, thats apples to apples.

The Banks vs Campbell debate is real.  They both have really good and somewhat bad film, against great competition.  Membou is an upside dilemma of another sort.  The solid appraoch says draft the trenches.  At ten, I'm not sure the guy will equal the value of one of the top six that will hopefully fall.

[BearFan PHX]

28 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

The Banks vs Campbell debate is real.  They both have really good and somewhat bad film, against great competition.  Membou is an upside dilemma of another sort.  The solid appraoch says draft the trenches.  At ten, I'm not sure the guy will equal the value of one of the top six that will hopefully fall.

The film I saw wasnt close. Im not saying everyone doesnt have good and bad reps, but when you look at the style and technique, and not just whether they kept their guy blocked or not, then you see a clear difference.

I do understand you desire for Jeanty. I feel like the disciplined thing to do is to take banks if hes there, but im not sure im right about that. if they take Jeanty, I will worry about LT, but I'll be over the moon for Chicago to have another star HB.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I predict this will be the last year the Bears pick at 10 or even under 20 going forward.  The Bears have a shot to fill some premium positions (LT, DE, DT) with 3 picks in the top 42 slots that they may not have the opportunity to do this again for many years.  They could possibly even have a shot to draft the best RB to come around in 7 years (Barkley).  When the Bears are on the clock, I really want to see how they think if Banks, Graham, & Mykel Williams, are available.  Then Poles will throw a knuckle ball and strike us all out selecting someone non of us projected.

[BearFan PHX]

16 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I predict this will be the last year the Bears pick at 10 or even under 20 going forward.  The Bears have a shot to fill some premium positions (LT, DE, DT) with 3 picks in the top 42 slots that they may not have the opportunity to do this again for many years.  They could possibly even have a shot to draft the best RB to come around in 7 years (Barkley).  When the Bears are on the clock, I really want to see how they think if Banks, Graham, & Mykel Williams, are available.  Then Poles will throw a knuckle ball and strike us all out selecting someone non of us projected.

one way or another we should end up with some pretty good names with our first 2 round picks.

[CrackerDog]

For me it’s simple.  If Jeanty is there he’s the pick.  If not they may trade back for additional draft capital.  

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I predict this will be the last year the Bears pick at 10 or even under 20 going forward.  The Bears have a shot to fill some premium positions (LT, DE, DT) with 3 picks in the top 42 slots that they may not have the opportunity to do this again for many years.  They could possibly even have a shot to draft the best RB to come around in 7 years (Barkley).  When the Bears are on the clock, I really want to see how they think if Banks, Graham, & Mykel Williams, are available.  Then Poles will throw a knuckle ball and strike us all out selecting someone non of us projected.

I already think that, Mathew Golden. We're not going to be picking this high again. 4.25 speed. Do not discount Ben adding a weapon with speed. I'm not asking for that but that would surprise everyone.

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

The film I saw wasnt close. Im not saying everyone doesnt have good and bad reps, but when you look at the style and technique, and not just whether they kept their guy blocked or not, then you see a clear difference.

I do understand you desire for Jeanty. I feel like the disciplined thing to do is to take banks if hes there, but im not sure im right about that. if they take Jeanty, I will worry about LT, but I'll be over the moon for Chicago to have another star HB.

Echo chambers don't agree.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I predict this will be the last year the Bears pick at 10 or even under 20 going forward.  The Bears have a shot to fill some premium positions (LT, DE, DT) with 3 picks in the top 42 slots that they may not have the opportunity to do this again for many years.  They could possibly even have a shot to draft the best RB to come around in 7 years (Barkley).  When the Bears are on the clock, I really want to see how they think if Banks, Graham, & Mykel Williams, are available.  Then Poles will throw a knuckle ball and strike us all out selecting someone non of us projected.

I agree last time in the top 10. I would say 20 and lower going forward. I also agree the majority of starting LTs were picked in the top 15. 

The 10 highest paid LTs 5 = top 15, 1 =20, 1=23, 1= 53, 1= 4th round 1= 7th round. 

So if we want one,  10 probably needs to address that. Only a few were day 1 kicking butt, most were developed.

Campbell, Membou, Banks considered the top 3 by most scouts. If they seem one destintin for stardom, I'm all in. It's for them to decide not me. 

I personally think Campbell will eventually be a OG, Membou will be a RT. So we can only hope Banks is the man or someone else they may want.

 

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Echo chambers don't agree.

Yeah I know. All I have is my eyes and my ears and whatever i can discern myself: my opinion.

I dont know where these guys get their information, or maybe better said, how much not important information they let into their decision making process.

I see what I see, and no one, no matter how well credentialed, can shake me from saying I saw what i saw.

It's like if you see a UFO. Everyone can tell you it's impossible, and you didn't see it. But if you actually saw it, then no one can tell you you didn't.

It's a bad example because i dont believe in UFOs, but if I saw one, no matter how much pressure i was under, I wouldnt ever break and say i didnt see it. No matter how many experts told me I didnt.

I saw Banks and Campbell. It was easy to see. ANYONE could see it. I guess when you start adding in combine numbers, and narratives it gets harder to see. So i dont do that. I just saw them play. And anyone who thinks Campbell is better than Banks based on the film is crazy. That's the truth.

Now should we take Banks or Golden, or Graham or Jeanty - those are difficult questions. I dont have an answer that's right to those. I just have my opinion. I cant see on film that Jeanty will help the team more than Banks (or vice versa) thats really complicated. Good people can debate that either way.

But with Banks and Campbell playing the same position, apples to apples, it was clear and solid. Banks is better. It's like when I said JF would never be the man. After a certain amount of tape, it isnt a question anymore. It becomes, just a fact.

It has nothing to do with my ego or anything like that. It's just i saw what i saw. You can see it too. Anyone can. I dont care what the pundits say. If they disagree theyre either stupid, lying or taking garbage data into the equation.

[Stinger226]

I get where you're coming from. Without knowing how much tape you watched, I am to assume your opinion is more valuable than someone that literally watches every minute of tape on a player in his whole career. Tapes of practices, maybe met in person , looks at all the measurements. I can't say they all do that but I do know Dane Brugler does that. 

I plumbed for 55 years of which I'm going to stop working altogether when I go home. I worked with people that had 5 maybe 10 years experience and think they're the genius in the room. I just let them talk. Plumbing isn't brain surgery but 50 years of experience does put you in a place most workers never get to . I never puff my chest out, let people talk. Then one day there's a problem they can't figure out and ask me for my help. I probably have dealt with that before. 

My point is experience matters in most cases.