#10 Pick Prediction

[Mongo3451]

6 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

It was easy to see. ANYONE could see it.

I get what you are saying with this.  It's kinda like when the KC exec had Mahommes stuck in his head, because he saw IT, and was hammering Reid to watch the tape.  Reid watched the tape and also saw IT.  A consensus was formed and a plan was made. 

I'm glad you see IT with Banks.  I like him too and would not bitch if we drafted him.  At our pick, if Campbell is there, I think we pick him over Banks. 

If we luck out and one of the five, special players, fall to us; I'm officially picking Jeanty or Warren at ten.  Jeanty is generational.  Warren is a bigger version of Brock Bowers.  That's where I see IT, but someone else may completely disagree.  ANYONE, can see IT.  They can be right out maybe I luck out.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Mason Graham is my wing and a prayer please fall to the Bears pick. 

[Stinger226]

34 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I get what you are saying with this.  It's kinda like when the KC exec had Mahommes stuck in his head, because he saw IT, and was hammering Reid to watch the tape.  Reid watched the tape and also saw IT.  A consensus was formed and a plan was made. 

I'm glad you see IT with Banks.  I like him too and would not bitch if we drafted him.  At our pick, if Campbell is there, I think we pick him over Banks. 

If we luck out and one of the five, special players, fall to us; I'm officially picking Jeanty or Warren at ten.  Jeanty is generational.  Warren is a bigger version of Brock Bowers.  That's where I see IT, but someone else may completely disagree.  ANYONE, can see IT.  They can be right out maybe I luck out.

Does everyone know who Brandon Thorn is? He's supposed to be a OL guru. He has a sub stack that costs money to get his newsletter. 

He did his annual report ( My guys) listing his 32 top OL in the draft  . He puts out a teaser giving you his favorite guy in each round. Does anyone get that? 

This year ( as a late first round pick) Simmons. if he wasn't injured, he said would have been the first T off the board.

Round 2 is Booker 

Round 3 is Rutledge 

Round 4 and later Izzy Trapilo 

I was curious of his full ranking.

[Stinger226]

16 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Mason Graham is my wing and a prayer please fall to the Bears pick. 

Lately I've seen him drop in the draft, and have no idea why. Easy answer no one knows what they're talking about. Would love to get a blue chip player.

[dawhizz]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Does everyone know who Brandon Thorn is? He's supposed to be a OL guru. He has a sub stack that costs money to get his newsletter. 

He did his annual report ( My guys) listing his 32 top OL in the draft  . He puts out a teaser giving you his favorite guy in each round. Does anyone get that? 

This year ( as a late first round pick) Simmons. if he wasn't injured, he said would have been the first T off the board.

Round 2 is Booker 

Round 3 is Rutledge 

Round 4 and later Izzy Trapilo 

I was curious of his full ranking.

I was that and then not too long after saw this projection of Simmons at #10. Very interesting. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6290474/2025/04/22/nfl-draft-mock-draft-coaches-top-10-2025/?campaign=13296962&source=athletic_targeted_email&userId=16310

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Lately I've seen him drop in the draft, and have no idea why. Easy answer no one knows what they're talking about. Would love to get a blue chip player.

If he drops - I think it would be because teams are focused on offensive side of the ball or say a team like Panthers maybe prefers DB to DT.  I highly doubt he falls - but if he did I would run in and make my pick quickly.  

The 3 players at this point where I think I would run in and make the pick - Carter (not happening), Graham, and I think I've convinced myself Jeanty (that he is more LT or name your Top 3 RB talent than he is a Top 10 back).  I don't feel as strongly on the LT prospects as they all have flaws - but I certainly would support the selection of either of them and understand if they did it. 

Mason Graham might be a bit undersized, but he's high character, high motor, and looks like he is just a flat out monster inside (and getting that interior pass rush is game wrecking in the NFL these days).  

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Does everyone know who Brandon Thorn is? He's supposed to be a OL guru. He has a sub stack that costs money to get his newsletter. 

He did his annual report ( My guys) listing his 32 top OL in the draft  . He puts out a teaser giving you his favorite guy in each round. Does anyone get that? 

This year ( as a late first round pick) Simmons. if he wasn't injured, he said would have been the first T off the board.

Round 2 is Booker 

Round 3 is Rutledge 

Round 4 and later Izzy Trapilo 

I was curious of his full ranking.

I just get the free Substack.  Too cheap to get deeper into the quagmire. 

[dawhizz]

Also interesting to hear Poles comment on the possibility of Wright at LT. Not sure I 100% believe it, but I’ve always wondered if it was a consideration.  Wright did play a year in college at LT. 
 

 

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Mason Graham is my wing and a prayer please fall to the Bears pick. 

Same.

[BearFan PHX]

I like Banks as the pick, but I would be very happy if we got Graham or Jeanty too. I'd worry about LT, but i'd know we got some really good players.

I dont like Warren at all though. In fact, I'd take Loveland over him. Warren in the 2nd round? Sure. Easily, but I dont think he is as good as he is being hyped.

[lemonej]

Today's smokescreen has Graham's stock slipping and having him available at 10. This along with Campbell's stock dropping are what I just heard on both the Score and AM1000. Supposedly this coming from Albert Breer.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, lemonej said:

Today's smokescreen has Graham's stock slipping and having him available at 10. This along with Campbell's stock dropping are what I just heard on both the Score and AM1000. Supposedly this coming from Albert Breer.

As much as this is BS season, there always seems to be one player that drops. Carter was supposed to be the best player in the draft and he dropped to 9 that year.

[Mongo3451]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

As much as this is BS season, there always seems to be one player that drops. Carter was supposed to be the best player in the draft and he dropped to 9 that year.

Not sure who you are talking about...

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Not sure who you are talking about...

I wasn't specific but mainly Mason Graham dropping to 10. Every year one top rated player goes later than expected. 

When the draft process started Membou was considered a 3rd or 4th round pick and now he's into the top 10 ( maybe). He's always had good tape but everyone never seen him as much of an athlete. As the draft process moved along more people investigated him .

So the same names keep popping up in the top 10 , who might go later than expected? Hunter, Jeanty, Warren, Carter are no brainers top of the draft but Mason was smaller and shorter than people thought so it has thrown some doubt on him. Also a smallish Walker as a DE may go later as lots of GMs love size. Has Campbell slipped because of his measurements? 

Just curious who you guys think drops?

[dawhizz]

37 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I wasn't specific but mainly Mason Graham dropping to 10. Every year one top rated player goes later than expected. 

When the draft process started Membou was considered a 3rd or 4th round pick and now he's into the top 10 ( maybe). He's always had good tape but everyone never seen him as much of an athlete. As the draft process moved along more people investigated him .

So the same names keep popping up in the top 10 , who might go later than expected? Hunter, Jeanty, Warren, Carter are no brainers top of the draft but Mason was smaller and shorter than people thought so it has thrown some doubt on him. Also a smallish Walker as a DE may go later as lots of GMs love size. Has Campbell slipped because of his measurements? 

Just curious who you guys think drops?

Graham makes the most sense for the reasons you say but I’m also not as convinced as everyone else that Campbell is the Pats pick at #4. They need a LT and is that really the best way to address it?

[AZ54]

I've been listening to a lot of mocks and such lately on Da Tube.  Here is a compilation of various scouting opinions (not mine) that go against the grain.  Some of these are "my guys" too.   Keep in mind I am paraphrasing a week's worth of reviews so don't quote me on anything.  I just wanted to bring up some negatives I've heard on many of the players we're looking at as our pick between 10 to 20 if we trade back.  

One thing worth noting as we head into draft day.  Jeremiah and Dane Brugler were both adamant that their boards are generic and reflect nothing about scheme.  What a board looks like for each team is going to be wildly different based on scheme and needs.  If you need a slot WR then you won't have Tet McMillan as the top WR.  

Mason Graham:  Brett Kohlman and EJ Snyder both agree that he's talented but will not be a great player in the NFL because if he does not win early in the rep he can't win at all on a second move once the OG or OT has his hands on him.   They didn't say he won't be a good player just not a great three-down DT.   If teams see it this way then it explains the rumors he's slipping out of the top 5.  

Kenneth Grant:  From Daniel Jeremiah... for his size he lacks the power you'd expect him to play with.  There is upside to his skillset but he's far from being close to it.  He has him ranked 31 overall.

Walter Nolen:   Various sources, PFF, Jeremiah and others.  Seems there are work ethic issues, rumors he walked off the practice field at least once.  Indications he takes plays off too.  The raw talent is there to be the best DT in this draft and a true blue chip player.  

Kelvin Banks:  Jeremiah, PFF, others.  He plays too high.  He's good against lower competition but against the good teams and players he struggled.  He's going to face that caliber of player every game in the NFL.  

Tyler Warren:  Just not a good enough athlete to really separate as a runner.  Good all around.  

Mykel Williams:  Not enough production as a pass rusher but a true stud as a run defender.  He's a little stiff at the top of the arc.  He has enough talent to improve as a pass rusher but his ceiling might not be as high as his run defense. 

Derek Harmon:   Best pure interior pass rusher if you want pressure, equally effective in the run game.  Can't bend, or change direction well, misses a lot of tackles. 

Membou:  Unknown on the left side.  Skills fit but risk/reward is not ideal if that's your only Oline need.   

Everybody loves Jeanty even if he's not quite in the same class as Bijan Robinson.  

Consensus seems to be there are 3 legit blue chips in this draft:  Hunter, Carter, and at a slightly lower level Jeanty.  If you think the challenge of trying to find a good player to draft at 10 it's far worse for the teams ahead of us.  Trading down out of the top 10 is too pricey for anyone to move up significantly and then what player would be worth that price?   This is going to be an interesting draft to look back on in 3 years.  

I don't even know who I want at 10 anymore.  

[BearFan PHX]

How does Kelvin Banks play too high? If you watch the tape he has great pad level. Campbell plays too high.

Also, he did very well against top competition. I dont get it.

It's like living in crazyland. PFF and Daniel Jeremiah. If thats what they think, then they shouldn't be analysts!

Someone show me 5 snaps where Banks plays too high!

And please dont get me wrong, this isn't Banks love from me. The reason I like Banks is because hes good. I didnt randomly pick him and then decide to defend him! The only reason I like him in the first place is his tape!

[Stinger226]

53 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

How does Kelvin Banks play too high? If you watch the tape he has great pad level. Campbell plays too high.

Also, he did very well against top competition. I dont get it.

It's like living in crazyland. PFF and Daniel Jeremiah. If thats what they think, then they shouldn't be analysts!

Someone show me 5 snaps where Banks plays too high!

And please dont get me wrong, this isn't Banks love from me. The reason I like Banks is because hes good. I didnt randomly pick him and then decide to defend him! The only reason I like him in the first place is his tape!

Serious question, how much tape have you watched? 

DJ, Dane Brugler watches every snap of a players career. They don't base an opinion on highlight films and a few game films.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

10 hours ago, lemonej said:

Today's smokescreen has Graham's stock slipping and having him available at 10. This along with Campbell's stock dropping are what I just heard on both the Score and AM1000. Supposedly this coming from Albert Breer.

I still can’t see it happening - at least not with Campbell. Someone is taking him before 10. I also think same for Graham but if people fall in love with a db, a skill position player at wideout and Warren, plus Jeanty - it certainly could happen. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I've been listening to a lot of mocks and such lately on Da Tube.  Here is a compilation of various scouting opinions (not mine) that go against the grain.  Some of these are "my guys" too.   Keep in mind I am paraphrasing a week's worth of reviews so don't quote me on anything.  I just wanted to bring up some negatives I've heard on many of the players we're looking at as our pick between 10 to 20 if we trade back.  

One thing worth noting as we head into draft day.  Jeremiah and Dane Brugler were both adamant that their boards are generic and reflect nothing about scheme.  What a board looks like for each team is going to be wildly different based on scheme and needs.  If you need a slot WR then you won't have Tet McMillan as the top WR.  

Mason Graham:  Brett Kohlman and EJ Snyder both agree that he's talented but will not be a great player in the NFL because if he does not win early in the rep he can't win at all on a second move once the OG or OT has his hands on him.   They didn't say he won't be a good player just not a great three-down DT.   If teams see it this way then it explains the rumors he's slipping out of the top 5.  

Kenneth Grant:  From Daniel Jeremiah... for his size he lacks the power you'd expect him to play with.  There is upside to his skillset but he's far from being close to it.  He has him ranked 31 overall.

Walter Nolen:   Various sources, PFF, Jeremiah and others.  Seems there are work ethic issues, rumors he walked off the practice field at least once.  Indications he takes plays off too.  The raw talent is there to be the best DT in this draft and a true blue chip player.  

Kelvin Banks:  Jeremiah, PFF, others.  He plays too high.  He's good against lower competition but against the good teams and players he struggled.  He's going to face that caliber of player every game in the NFL.  

Tyler Warren:  Just not a good enough athlete to really separate as a runner.  Good all around.  

Mykel Williams:  Not enough production as a pass rusher but a true stud as a run defender.  He's a little stiff at the top of the arc.  He has enough talent to improve as a pass rusher but his ceiling might not be as high as his run defense. 

Derek Harmon:   Best pure interior pass rusher if you want pressure, equally effective in the run game.  Can't bend, or change direction well, misses a lot of tackles. 

Membou:  Unknown on the left side.  Skills fit but risk/reward is not ideal if that's your only Oline need.   

Everybody loves Jeanty even if he's not quite in the same class as Bijan Robinson.  

Consensus seems to be there are 3 legit blue chips in this draft:  Hunter, Carter, and at a slightly lower level Jeanty.  If you think the challenge of trying to find a good player to draft at 10 it's far worse for the teams ahead of us.  Trading down out of the top 10 is too pricey for anyone to move up significantly and then what player would be worth that price?   This is going to be an interesting draft to look back on in 3 years.  

I don't even know who I want at 10 anymore.  

I think if one of Jeanty, Graham or they grade an LT as a stud isn’t there - I am moving on down. Ideally as far as 20….pick up a 2nd and 3rd (or get a 4th and a future 3rd if we don’t get a 3rd). 

[BearFan PHX]

55 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Serious question, how much tape have you watched? 

DJ, Dane Brugler watches every snap of a players career. They don't base an opinion on highlight films and a few game films.

I have watched about 5 games against his toughest opponents. I watched the plays multiple times, checked the feet, checked the bend and anchor. Saw the "sack" against Georgia where he kept the pocket clean for 5 seconds, and then got his guy on the ground, and then the QB steps up like 3 seconds late into the picket and the guy on the ground gets his shoe. So PFF gives Banks a sack for that. it's not reality. I'll take 5 seconds of clean protection and then a pancake as a GOOD rep any day. Plus bansk is excellent at handing guys off and reading stunts and stuff. Seriously, you WANT this guy on your team! How am I having flashbacks of trying to convince you that Caleb Williams is a good QB prospect?!

If Brugler thinks Banks plays too high, then he isn't worth listening to about anything. i don't care how many gold stars are next to his name, if he says that, then he's an idiot.

In order for me to be wrong, Banks would have to have played high in the other games, but not at all in the games i watched. What are the odds of that? And if that's what happened, then Banks knows how to not play high, because he didnt, so it's not a problem.

Honestly I think in one of the recent videos you linked he said CAMPBELL plays high and you got it twisted. I watched and he was talking about Campbell. Whatever the reason, Banks doesnt play high, and if someone says he does, then they don't know what they are talking about.

It's not subjective. You can watch the film. Find me 5 snaps where he plays high. Seriously.

This is getting ridiculous. The King of NFL media says 2+2 = 5, and Im just a common farmer, and Im like "wait, no thats not right" Doubling down on the expert factor just makes my point that experts dont know crap a lot of the time.

[BearFan PHX]

38 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think if one of Jeanty, Graham or they grade an LT as a stud isn’t there - I am moving on down. Ideally as far as 20….pick up a 2nd and 3rd (or get a 4th and a future 3rd if we don’t get a 3rd). 

Yes. For me if Banks is gone, and Warren is what's left for you for example, I have traded down between 17 and 20 and taken Ersery there. Then I got an extra 2nd round pick, so I get a lot of drafts like:

20 Ersery
39 BPA Nolen or Starks or a DE some kind of help on D
41 BPA WR or TE
48 Kaleb Johnson

That extra 2nd round pick gives you those extra BPA guys.

My current rules say:

1) You must get a starting LT - and that's hard to do as low as 39. So you kinda gotta snag Ersery around 20 if you dont get one at 10

2) You must get a starting HB - and so thats T Henderson or K Johnson with one of your second rounders if it isnt Jeanty at 10.

So mathematically, to comply with both rules...

If you dont get Banks, say you take Jeanty, then you almost have to trade up into the first round around 20 to get Ersery in order to satisfy my rules above. If you dont follow them, you risk LT or HB being not good enough depending on how things fall.

If you do trade down though, then that gives you TWO best player available picks in the 2nd round. You get your OT, and a RB, and you get 2 more picks to help on D, or add that WR3 or TE2.

I like Malakai Starks a lot at Safety. He's a luxury pick this year. If we trade down, Id make him the extra guy at the top of the 2nd.

And if you spend the 10th pick, then you lose that extra guy. So it all depends who is there at 10, but if you trade back, then you get an extra guy, but if you stay at 10 and dont pick a LT then you have to spend a 2nd and a 3rd to get back up into the first to take an OT.


***** In the end these are the scenarios that end up with both good OT and HB *****

#1 Trade back for Ersery, you dont get Banks or Jeanty but you get 3 x 2nd rounders one must be HB
Ersery, HB & BPA 2 x 2nds, 1 x 3rd

OR

#2 Stay at 10 and take Banks and you get 2 x 2nd round players one must be HB
Banks, HB & BPA 1 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd

OR

#3 You take Jeanty and you get 1 x 2nd round players for a BPA but you lose the other 2nd and your 3rd to move back into the first for Ersery
Jeanty, Ersery & 1 x BPA 2nd

so
Ersery, HB & BPA 2 x 2nds, 1 x 3rd
Banks, HB & BPA 1 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd
Jeanty, Ersery, BPA 1 x 2nd

I like #2 best because Ersery is a step down, but you can sell me on #3 too because of Jeanty

#1 is the haul, but you miss both blue chippers Jeanty and Banks.

[BearFan PHX]

I should also say that Simmons is the wild card. If we have some info on his injury that's positive, and believe he will be ready, then he might play into this too at 10 or 20(ish)

[Stinger226]

I going to watch more tape to see if I can get where you're at or see why other people say what they say. I have the time to do that. 

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I going to watch more tape to see if I can get where you're at or see why other people say what they say. I have the time to do that. 

thats always the best. my advice is dont just judge the outcome of the rep, but the style, the technique, you wanna see low pads, arching back when absorbing energy, low butt. One thing that could be better for Bansk is that he sometimes tries to initiate contact a little too early int he run game, so he lunges. But I think its better to teach someone patience, than to try to light a fuse under them.

I highly recommend that TTNL footage on the Georgia game, Ill link it here again. He goes into detail about what to look for. I know hes abrasive, but he knows what hes talking about and he is like a guide to remind you where to look. ANd hes facing two top draft prospects 1 on 1.

Definitely start at 19:00 in to skip the crap.