Is there an argument to move up in the draft?

[nfoligno]

I am not saying we will, as Angelo has not shown an inclination to move up in drafts, but I wonder if there is an argument for a move up in a couple different situations.

 

Situation one

 

Clady has really risen since he was first mentioned on this board. At one time, there was belief he could be there for us. Now, it is a virtual lock he will not. This situation hinges on Long to a large degree. If Stl takes Long, I think it Clady doesn't make it out of the top 10. If Stl takes DL though, as many mocks have them doing, Long could slip a bit more. Oak is the next team, but Oakland could be looking at McFadden (despite the Fargas deal). I doubt Long slips past KC. So then you have Baltimore as the most likely to look at Clady, but if Clady slips past them, he may drop all the way to Denver, who would not likely pass.

 

So the questions are (a) how much higher of a grade do we have on Clady over the other OTs and ( how much would it cost to move up a couple spots to leap frog Denver. Would Buffalo take our late 3rd to drop 3 spots? If so, would Clady be worth our 1st and late 3rd? If Clady is the answer at LT, and allows us to move Tait to RT, I think so.

 

Situation two

 

There is a pretty decent chance S Phillips makes it to us, but if he does, he will not last long after. At the same time, w/ a good OT class, we could be looking at numerous OTs with our 1st pick, but the pickings could be far slimmer by the time we pick in the 2nd as many teams in between are expected to take an OT. Then there is the QB issue. I have seen many who are high on Broham, and many others high on Flacco. Flacco is rising, and may no longer be available for us in the 2nd, and Broham is a near lock to be gone by then.

 

So the point is, a lot of the very solid prospects will be there for us in the 1st, but not the 2nd. Thus, I ask whether it is worth us using one of our extra 3rd round picks to move into the back end of the 1st round.

 

If we have two 1st round picks, we could come out of the round w/ a combo of:

 

- Broham/Williams (or Cherilius or Baker) I think Otah is gone by late 1st

- Otah/Flacco

- Phillips/Flacco

- Phillips/OT

 

How the draft goes down dictates everything, but I just wonder if we would not be better off getting two of these prospects most like, as opposed to one and a pair of lesser prospects w/ our 2nd and 3rd.

[madlithuanian]

I think you could make the arguement, but I don't see it happening. In all the years Jerry's been here, we're not moved up once. We've only moved down. I see no real conclusive reason for that trend to stop barring some really unusual slide of a player.

 

I am not saying we will, as Angelo has not shown an inclination to move up in drafts, but I wonder if there is an argument for a move up in a couple different situations.

 

Situation one

 

Clady has really risen since he was first mentioned on this board. At one time, there was belief he could be there for us. Now, it is a virtual lock he will not. This situation hinges on Long to a large degree. If Stl takes Long, I think it Clady doesn't make it out of the top 10. If Stl takes DL though, as many mocks have them doing, Long could slip a bit more. Oak is the next team, but Oakland could be looking at McFadden (despite the Fargas deal). I doubt Long slips past KC. So then you have Baltimore as the most likely to look at Clady, but if Clady slips past them, he may drop all the way to Denver, who would not likely pass.

 

So the questions are (a) how much higher of a grade do we have on Clady over the other OTs and ( how much would it cost to move up a couple spots to leap frog Denver. Would Buffalo take our late 3rd to drop 3 spots? If so, would Clady be worth our 1st and late 3rd? If Clady is the answer at LT, and allows us to move Tait to RT, I think so.

 

Situation two

 

There is a pretty decent chance S Phillips makes it to us, but if he does, he will not last long after. At the same time, w/ a good OT class, we could be looking at numerous OTs with our 1st pick, but the pickings could be far slimmer by the time we pick in the 2nd as many teams in between are expected to take an OT. Then there is the QB issue. I have seen many who are high on Broham, and many others high on Flacco. Flacco is rising, and may no longer be available for us in the 2nd, and Broham is a near lock to be gone by then.

 

So the point is, a lot of the very solid prospects will be there for us in the 1st, but not the 2nd. Thus, I ask whether it is worth us using one of our extra 3rd round picks to move into the back end of the 1st round.

 

If we have two 1st round picks, we could come out of the round w/ a combo of:

 

- Broham/Williams (or Cherilius or Baker) I think Otah is gone by late 1st

- Otah/Flacco

- Phillips/Flacco

- Phillips/OT

 

How the draft goes down dictates everything, but I just wonder if we would not be better off getting two of these prospects most like, as opposed to one and a pair of lesser prospects w/ our 2nd and 3rd.

[BigDaddy]

Yeah, I think it would be out of character for JA to move up. I'm more inclined to believe with all the needs we have and especially based on what we do with the o line in FA, he would move down to collect more picks. Personally, I think the QBs are gonna suffer this year. None of them are gonna get the kind of blockbuster deals that have been done the last few years. Believe me, this could be the day of reckoning for agents who are looking for that bigtime QB deal. I don't see anyone in this class worth the money it would cost. Hell, I'm still laughing about the deal Oakland gave Russell last year. What a complete joke. He is Daunte Culpepper Redux.

[ChileBear]

Personally, I think the QBs are gonna suffer this year. None of them are gonna get the kind of blockbuster deals that have been done the last few years. Believe me, this could be the day of reckoning for agents who are looking for that bigtime QB deal. I don't see anyone in this class worth the money it would cost. Hell, I'm still laughing about the deal Oakland gave Russell last year. What a complete joke. He is Daunte Culpepper Redux.

I disagree Big Daddy. Players and agents know the drill: hold out until the temas give in. No player is going to take less that last years similar pick at that spot. Until the world tilts on its axis, the salaries are going to keep going up for these players that have shown squat. Now we know where guys like Briggs and Berrian are coming from--if an unknow rookie gan get astronomical $, why not me, a proven quantity?

[BigDaddy]

My point is that I think this year is going to be completely different than the last couple in that people are seeing the kind of money that these QBs who have zero experience are getting and then they are looking around the league at some of the success stories as of late. Look at Romo in Dallas and Anderson in Cleveland. Why should a team spend 60M with the #1-4 pick when they can wait till the 20th pick and spend 18-22M? That's what I mean by day of reckoning. Teams realize that they don't need to draft an unproven QB with the high number 1 pick anymore. There have been alot of #1 busts. I'm not trying to say nobody will ever draft a QB number 1 again but it would appear that teams are figuring out, everyone but the Bears of course, that they can invest their money in a great o line and even a mediocre QB looks better.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

I'm just going to say this- if we choose to make a trade in the draft, it should be down. JA picks so much better in rounds 2-5 that moving up and losing a 2nd rounder to move up 4 or however many spots is a dumb idea. If we can trade our pick and get a team's 2nd, 3rd, and a 4th or 5th next year, then I'd be very happy. That way, we could go Cherilus, Flacco, LaVelle Hawkins, Radovich, and Demps with their first 5 picks.

 

Yet, if we do move up, we probably have to give up our 2nd, and we now have 1 pick on the first day. In my mind, just keep the pick, or trade down.

[ParkerBear7]

I think JA will do what he did 5 years ago when he traded down and got an extra pick when he Drafted Haynes & Grossman.

 

 

1 Cincinnati Bengals Carson Palmer Quarterback USC

2 Detroit Lions Charles Rogers Wide Receiver Michigan State

3 Houston Texans Andre Johnson Wide Receiver Miami (FL)

4 New York Jets (from Chicago) Dewayne Robertson Defensive Tackle Kentucky

5 Dallas Cowboys Terence Newman Cornerback Kansas State

6 New Orleans Saints (from Arizona) Johnathan Sullivan Defensive Tackle Georgia

7 Jacksonville Jaguars [5] Byron Leftwich Quarterback Marshall

8 Carolina Panthers [5] Jordan Gross Offensive Tackle Utah

9 Minnesota Vikings [5] Kevin Williams Defensive Tackle Oklahoma State

10 Baltimore Ravens Terrell Suggs Defensive End/Linebacker Arizona State

11 Seattle Seahawks Marcus Trufant Cornerback Washington State

12 St. Louis Rams Jimmy Kennedy Defensive Tackle Penn State

13 New England Patriots (from Washington through New York Jets and Chicago) Ty Warren Defensive End Texas A&M

14 Chicago Bears (from Buffalo through New England) Michael Haynes Defensive End Penn State

15 Philadelphia Eagles (from San Diego) Jerome McDougle Defensive End Miami (FL)

16 Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) Troy Polamalu Safety USC

17 Arizona Cardinals (from Miami through New Orleans) Bryant Johnson Wide Receiver Penn State

18 Arizona Cardinals (from New Orleans) Calvin Pace Defensive End Wake Forest

19 Baltimore Ravens (from New England) Kyle Boller Quarterback California

20 Denver Broncos George Foster Offensive Tackle Georgia

21 Cleveland Browns Jeff Faine Center Notre Dame

22 Chicago Bears (from New York Jets) Rex Grossman Quarterback Florida

23 Buffalo Bills (from Atlanta) Willis McGahee Running Back Miami (FL)

24 Indianapolis Colts Dallas Clark Tight End Iowa

25 New York Giants William Joseph Defensive Tackle Miami (FL)

26 San Francisco 49ers Kwame Harris Offensive Tackle Stanford

27 Kansas City Chiefs (from Pittsburgh) Larry Johnson Running Back Penn State

28 Tennessee Titans Andre Woolfolk Cornerback Oklahoma

29 Green Bay Packers Nick Barnett Linebacker Oregon State

30 San Diego Chargers (from Philadelphia) Sammy Davis Cornerback Texas A&M

31 Oakland Raiders Nnamdi Asomugha Cornerback California

32 Oakland Raiders (from Tampa Bay) [6] Tyler Brayton Defensive End Colorado

 

By the way, take note who the Bears missed out on at # 27 Larry Johnson -- if LJ was picked at #14 instead of Haynes we may have never been talking about BAD REX as he could have had one hell of a running game that might very well masked his inconsistent play.

[bradjock]

This list is a good example of why you always take quantity over quality when drafting, since you never know what the hell you were going to get. I know a lot of people were pissed we didn't stick at #4 and draft Byron "fat-ass" Leftwich. I myself was praying for Kyle Boller. We ended up with Rex, who's been bad, but not as bad as Boller or Leftwich.

 

Meanwhile, you look at this list and think, "Damn it'd be nice to have Troy Polomolu right now." Among other guys. For every great player like Carson Palmer, there's a horrific bust like Charles Rogers.

 

Draft as many good players as you can and hope one of them turns into a star. Never, ever trade up. (As for NFO's idea that we move up to get a top o-lineman, all I need to say is Robert "Hagrid" Gallery.

 

I think JA will do what he did 5 years ago when he traded down and got an extra pick when he Drafted Haynes & Grossman.

1 Cincinnati Bengals Carson Palmer Quarterback USC

2 Detroit Lions Charles Rogers Wide Receiver Michigan State

3 Houston Texans Andre Johnson Wide Receiver Miami (FL)

4 New York Jets (from Chicago) Dewayne Robertson Defensive Tackle Kentucky

5 Dallas Cowboys Terence Newman Cornerback Kansas State

6 New Orleans Saints (from Arizona) Johnathan Sullivan Defensive Tackle Georgia

7 Jacksonville Jaguars [5] Byron Leftwich Quarterback Marshall

8 Carolina Panthers [5] Jordan Gross Offensive Tackle Utah

9 Minnesota Vikings [5] Kevin Williams Defensive Tackle Oklahoma State

10 Baltimore Ravens Terrell Suggs Defensive End/Linebacker Arizona State

11 Seattle Seahawks Marcus Trufant Cornerback Washington State

12 St. Louis Rams Jimmy Kennedy Defensive Tackle Penn State

13 New England Patriots (from Washington through New York Jets and Chicago) Ty Warren Defensive End Texas A&M

14 Chicago Bears (from Buffalo through New England) Michael Haynes Defensive End Penn State

15 Philadelphia Eagles (from San Diego) Jerome McDougle Defensive End Miami (FL)

16 Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) Troy Polamalu Safety USC

17 Arizona Cardinals (from Miami through New Orleans) Bryant Johnson Wide Receiver Penn State

18 Arizona Cardinals (from New Orleans) Calvin Pace Defensive End Wake Forest

19 Baltimore Ravens (from New England) Kyle Boller Quarterback California

20 Denver Broncos George Foster Offensive Tackle Georgia

21 Cleveland Browns Jeff Faine Center Notre Dame

22 Chicago Bears (from New York Jets) Rex Grossman Quarterback Florida

23 Buffalo Bills (from Atlanta) Willis McGahee Running Back Miami (FL)

24 Indianapolis Colts Dallas Clark Tight End Iowa

25 New York Giants William Joseph Defensive Tackle Miami (FL)

26 San Francisco 49ers Kwame Harris Offensive Tackle Stanford

27 Kansas City Chiefs (from Pittsburgh) Larry Johnson Running Back Penn State

28 Tennessee Titans Andre Woolfolk Cornerback Oklahoma

29 Green Bay Packers Nick Barnett Linebacker Oregon State

30 San Diego Chargers (from Philadelphia) Sammy Davis Cornerback Texas A&M

31 Oakland Raiders Nnamdi Asomugha Cornerback California

32 Oakland Raiders (from Tampa Bay) [6] Tyler Brayton Defensive End Colorado

 

By the way, take note who the Bears missed out on at # 27 Larry Johnson -- if LJ was picked at #14 instead of Haynes we may have never been talking about BAD REX as he could have had one hell of a running game that might very well masked his inconsistent play.

[nfoligno]

Disagree. While it is all a crap shoot, I think another key is personnel front offices. Some are just good, while others are not.

 

You talk about quantity over quality, but quantity does not necessarily get you quality. Haynes and Rex? There is your quantity, but where is the quality. It doesn't look like trading down and adding picks really helped us any.

 

Another example is last year. We traded down in the 2nd, and then took Bazuin, Wolfe and Payne. SD took Weddle, a solid S, w/ the pick we traded down from. Blalock and Ugoh were a pair of OL many here were high on, and I think both turned into solid players this year.

 

The year prior, we traded out of the 1st, and took D.Manning and Dusty w/ our two new picks. Still hope for Dusty, but how many starts after two years?

 

I am not saying we should trade up. For Clady, it depends on what sort of grade we have on him. If it isn't much different from the others, then we don't think about it. If it is significantly different, then I think there is logic to do it. As for the other scenario, to me it is similar to what Cle did last year, w/o giving up a future 1st.

 

I understand the idea of loading up on picks, spreading out the risk, but I would also point out that the further down the draft you go, the greater risk the pick is. The 3rd round pick and 5th round pick you might give up have greater bust factors than the 1st round pick you would ultimately take.

 

We talk about the draft being like craps. Well, okay. Two guys walk up to a craps table w/ $150. One guy puts $50 on the 6, 8 & 10 hardway bets. The other bets $50 on the point and then backs it up w/ $100, a typical bet. While the first guy has spread his bet out over three bets, his bets have weaker odds, and statistically, the 2nd guy is still more likely to win than the first.

[ParkerBear7]

I think were teams often get themselves into trouble is when they pass on best player avialable and reach for a need. A prudent GM will have a talented core of players under contract, use the draft to take the best availble or trade down to get the player they need at the right value. I have no problem if a GM trades up to get that "Franchise player" that has the potential to help that team complete for a SB i.e. I don't think Shannahan is particulary good at drafting but I was impressed when he traded up to get Jay Culter a few years ago! The other part of the equation is how well the Front Office evalutes talent and manages the roster.

[BearSox]

I have been thinking about this a lot, and this is my plan right now.

 

If Mendenhall is there at 14, draft him. He is just an amazing prospect right now and with they way RB is valued now-a-days, he could last till 14 (even though he is looking more and more like a top 5-10 talent).

 

Then, keep our second rounder, but package our two 3rds and a future 2nd (and more?) to move up to the early 2nd or even late 1st round range. With those two picks, go with Gosder Cherilus and Joe Flacco. That, in the first day we get two guys who can contribute right away and in the future, and someone who will hopefully make a big impact on the future.

[ParkerBear7]

Exactly, I have no problem when a GM knows what he is looking for talent wise and goes out and gets him. Quantity is not always better than quality as someone preveiosly mentioned. That extra 3rd pick could be huge and allow JA to do something like you are thinking. But depending who is available on draft day when the Bears are on the clock JA may covet some other players whom he thinks fits what they are looking for and move down to get them which I am okay as well but with all our needs I just hope they do their due diligence scounting players to make this team better. Lets face it this team does not have an offensive identity and JA can not afford to make any mistakes in this draft on that side of the ball.

 

The reason I posted the 2003 draft list is to point out that the Bears did a poor job of evaluating talent that year and possible reached for a need with Haynes and left some very good players on the board like Johnson, MaGahee and Palomula. I don't have a problem with drafting Grossman either. Really none of the other players that were avaiable after the 14th besides the previsouly metioned amounted to much.

[Mongo3451]

I am not saying we will, as Angelo has not shown an inclination to move up in drafts, but I wonder if there is an argument for a move up in a couple different situations.

 

Situation one

 

Clady has really risen since he was first mentioned on this board. At one time, there was belief he could be there for us. Now, it is a virtual lock he will not. This situation hinges on Long to a large degree. If Stl takes Long, I think it Clady doesn't make it out of the top 10. If Stl takes DL though, as many mocks have them doing, Long could slip a bit more. Oak is the next team, but Oakland could be looking at McFadden (despite the Fargas deal). I doubt Long slips past KC. So then you have Baltimore as the most likely to look at Clady, but if Clady slips past them, he may drop all the way to Denver, who would not likely pass.

 

So the questions are (a) how much higher of a grade do we have on Clady over the other OTs and ( how much would it cost to move up a couple spots to leap frog Denver. Would Buffalo take our late 3rd to drop 3 spots? If so, would Clady be worth our 1st and late 3rd? If Clady is the answer at LT, and allows us to move Tait to RT, I think so.

 

Situation two

 

There is a pretty decent chance S Phillips makes it to us, but if he does, he will not last long after. At the same time, w/ a good OT class, we could be looking at numerous OTs with our 1st pick, but the pickings could be far slimmer by the time we pick in the 2nd as many teams in between are expected to take an OT. Then there is the QB issue. I have seen many who are high on Broham, and many others high on Flacco. Flacco is rising, and may no longer be available for us in the 2nd, and Broham is a near lock to be gone by then.

 

So the point is, a lot of the very solid prospects will be there for us in the 1st, but not the 2nd. Thus, I ask whether it is worth us using one of our extra 3rd round picks to move into the back end of the 1st round.

 

If we have two 1st round picks, we could come out of the round w/ a combo of:

 

- Broham/Williams (or Cherilius or Baker) I think Otah is gone by late 1st

- Otah/Flacco

- Phillips/Flacco

- Phillips/OT

 

How the draft goes down dictates everything, but I just wonder if we would not be better off getting two of these prospects most like, as opposed to one and a pair of lesser prospects w/ our 2nd and 3rd.

 

I am OK with moving up if the player is really going to be a key component. It's always a crapshoot, but sometimes you just "gotta have em"!! Otherwise, I prefer the tradedown strategy.