Why I think we will trade down

[nfoligno]

Angelo loves to stock pile picks, and especially now when we have so many needs, I think it is even more logical. We are not a player away. Not even close. We have many needs, and FA is not offering much, at least not in long term solutions.

 

Further, I look at what I believe Angelo is seeing as our top needs, and I am not sure if the positions matchup w/ where we draft.

 

OT - Long and Clady are gone. I think Williams is gone too, but even if he is there, would we view him as value? After Clady, you have a sizable group of OL that would be considered solid value late 1st, but this high?

 

QB - Though I have seen plenty of mocks w/ us taking Broham at 14, I do not believe he is a great value there. Flacco would be a huge reach. At the same time, neither are likely there for us in the 2nd.

 

RB/WR - While there will be players available at 14 that many would argue are good/great values, at the same time, the draft is deep at both positions, and great values can be had later as well.

 

Key for me though is QB. I think Angelo views getting a QB as a priority, but 14 is too high. If you look at the teams that draft after us in the 1st, the only team that I can see as even a posibility to draft a QB would be TB. However, 5 of the top 10 teams in the 2nd (minus whoever takes Ryan) I think would be very much looking at a QB. So Broham/Flacco may be there late 1st, but likely not by our pick in the 2nd.

 

So, I can see Angelo trading down. Best case scenario would be w/ Dallas, grabbing their two 1sts, but more likely, we trade down and pick up an extra 2nd and more. Then in the first, we grab our franchise QB (we pray). In the 2nd, we have two picks and will grab an OL (maybe Baker) and RB or WR. In the 3rd, we have 2, or even 3, picks to further stock pile RB/WR/OL, and maybe throw in a S.

 

When you look at what we have done on offense, it appears everything is short term. QBs are under short term deals. WRs added are one or two year deals. RB is on a last chance deal. So I can see Angelo trying to trade down, add picks, and simply stock pile picks to address the offense.

[azbearsfan]

Angelo loves to stock pile picks, and especially now when we have so many needs, I think it is even more logical. We are not a player away. Not even close. We have many needs, and FA is not offering much, at least not in long term solutions.

 

Further, I look at what I believe Angelo is seeing as our top needs, and I am not sure if the positions matchup w/ where we draft.

 

OT - Long and Clady are gone. I think Williams is gone too, but even if he is there, would we view him as value? After Clady, you have a sizable group of OL that would be considered solid value late 1st, but this high?

 

QB - Though I have seen plenty of mocks w/ us taking Broham at 14, I do not believe he is a great value there. Flacco would be a huge reach. At the same time, neither are likely there for us in the 2nd.

 

RB/WR - While there will be players available at 14 that many would argue are good/great values, at the same time, the draft is deep at both positions, and great values can be had later as well.

 

Key for me though is QB. I think Angelo views getting a QB as a priority, but 14 is too high. If you look at the teams that draft after us in the 1st, the only team that I can see as even a posibility to draft a QB would be TB. However, 5 of the top 10 teams in the 2nd (minus whoever takes Ryan) I think would be very much looking at a QB. So Broham/Flacco may be there late 1st, but likely not by our pick in the 2nd.

 

So, I can see Angelo trading down. Best case scenario would be w/ Dallas, grabbing their two 1sts, but more likely, we trade down and pick up an extra 2nd and more. Then in the first, we grab our franchise QB (we pray). In the 2nd, we have two picks and will grab an OL (maybe Baker) and RB or WR. In the 3rd, we have 2, or even 3, picks to further stock pile RB/WR/OL, and maybe throw in a S.

 

When you look at what we have done on offense, it appears everything is short term. QBs are under short term deals. WRs added are one or two year deals. RB is on a last chance deal. So I can see Angelo trying to trade down, add picks, and simply stock pile picks to address the offense.

 

 

I agree that we need more picks because we have a ton of needs. Plus I hate first round picks because the value is not very good. You have a good chance to get a bust and be stuck with a high contract on that bust. We know better than most McNown, Enis, Terrell, maybe Benson, etc.

 

Furthermore, I think JA does better drafting out of the first round.

I hope he trades out every year.l

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

How I'd like the draft to go:

1. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt

2. Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware

3. Quinten Demps, S, UTEP

3. Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame

4. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia

5. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia

6. Drew Radovich, OG, USC

7. Maurice Purify, WR, Nebraska

 

How I think it will go:

1. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

2. Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska

3. Quinten Demps, S, UTEP

3. Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame

4. Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego

5. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia

6. James McClinton, DT, Kansas

7. Kory Lichtensteiger, OG/C, Bowling Green

 

 

So I don't think we trade down.

[killakrzydav]

I would love a trade down for both of the Cowboys first round picks although I would also take a teams first, second, and third.

 

With the Cowboys picks I would select J. Otah and B. Brohm.

 

With a teams first, second and third along with our second and both thirds I would go QB, OL, WR, OL, RB, S, DT

[jackie hayes]

Safety's a need, also, but it's a weak position in this draft. Phillips seems to be the only one worthy of a first-round pick. (I know there's some disagreement even on him, it's jmho.)

 

I think any one of Long, Clady, Otah, and Williams would be acceptable value at 14. It is a deep ot class, so if you can trade down and still get one of those four, that would be great. Even the next tier (Cherilus & Baker) look good as late first round picks.

 

I just don't like any of the top qbs enough to get excited about using a first round pick. That includes Ryan, despite the consensus on him. Personally, I think I'd rather gut it out this year with Rex and Kyle and wait for next year -- either for the draft, or to see if Quinn is made available.

 

As for rb, Stewart and Mendenhall both look like solid picks. And although I'm sure most would see it as a luxury, Sedrick Ellis would be a good pick at 14.

 

Overall, I think there's a lot of value in our pick. If you could trade down and get one of Otah, Williams, Cherilus, Baker, Stewart, Mendenhall, and Phillips, that would be great, too. I'm pretty optimistic about the draft, as it looks pretty deep at areas where we have needs. Heck, if we took two offensive tackles high, I wouldn't mind. Just no reaches.

[adam]

I would love a trade down for both of the Cowboys first round picks although I would also take a teams first, second, and third.

 

With the Cowboys picks I would select J. Otah and B. Brohm.

 

With a teams first, second and third along with our second and both thirds I would go QB, OL, WR, OL, RB, S, DT

Why would the Cowboys trade 22 AND 28 to move only to 14? That value should get them into the Top 10.

 

If Dallas trades anything, it would be 22 and their 2nd Rounder (61) and maybe a 5th for 14.

 

That would give the Bears the following picks in the first 3 rounds:

 

22

44

61

76

91

 

They could then take one of their 5th rounders and try to move up a couple spots in the 3rd.

 

I also agree with nfo, we need to trade down unless someone completely falls into our laps at 14.

[nfoligno]

Why would the Cowboys trade 22 AND 28 to move only to 14? That value should get them into the Top 10.

 

Your right. The value of their two picks equates to around the 8th pick. I thought that our 1st and 3rd might have been close, but even givng one of our 3rd back would not be equal. Nice thought though.

 

So more likely, as you said, would be to try for a teams 1st and 2nd round picks.

 

I also agree with nfo, we need to trade down unless someone completely falls into our laps at 14.

 

Just to be clear, I am reasoning why I think Angelo will trade down. That is not necessarily what I want to do.

 

For example, if Clady were to make it past the top 10, I would call it very likely Denver would take him ahead of us. Rather than trade down, I would actually trade up for Clady.

 

But assuming no Clady, it would simply depend on who is there. I also like the idea of simply staying put and taking Williams, though I think there is a pretty decent chance even he is gone. As much as stockpiling picks would be nice, at the same time, I think it the priority is getting top talent. I think Williams can be a great LT, and finding that player is as important (or more) than stockpiling picks.

 

I will also say this. If we trade down, one player I would really like to see us target is Albert. All pro caliber OG, w/ potential to move outside. He even finished the year at LT, and while he would need more time to develop there, does have the potential for the move.

[HoofHearted]

How I'd like the draft to go:

1. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt

2. Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware

3. Quinten Demps, S, UTEP

3. Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame

4. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia

5. Owen Schmitt, FB, West Virginia

6. Drew Radovich, OG, USC

7. Maurice Purify, WR, Nebraska

 

 

Demps isn't worth that early third, and Laws won't be there for the late one. Demps doesn't separate himself even close to enough from that second pack of safeties (Morgan, Adams, Ty J, Demps, DeCoud, Barrett, Zib, Steltz, Roach) to warrant drafting him there, rather than waiting a round and getting our guy there. Heck, he'll probably be there in round four anyway.

[adam]

So more likely, as you said, would be to try for a teams 1st and 2nd round picks.

Just to be clear, I am reasoning why I think Angelo will trade down. That is not necessarily what I want to do.

That's what I was saying about someone falling into our laps. Every year someone falls out of the top ten into the teens. Hopefully this year it happens to be someone we need.

 

I would hate to see Clady go to Denver, then Mendenhall go to Carolina right in front of us, but those wins at the end of the season sure were nice.

[bradjock]

I have to agree with the trade down scenerio. Like you've hinted at though, we're better off waiting to see who's available. We got lucky as hell that Tommie Harris dropped down to #14. Last year Angelo said teams were calling him to trade for the #31 pick, but he wanted to stick with Olsen. Most of us would have been happy if we'd traded UP for Olsen.

 

Most of the guys who are likely available when we pick could easily slip to the bottom of the first round the way Olsen was. I've seen mocks that had us taking Otah at #14, and others that have him dropping to the bottom of the first.

 

 

 

 

 

Your right. The value of their two picks equates to around the 8th pick. I thought that our 1st and 3rd might have been close, but even givng one of our 3rd back would not be equal. Nice thought though.

 

So more likely, as you said, would be to try for a teams 1st and 2nd round picks.

Just to be clear, I am reasoning why I think Angelo will trade down. That is not necessarily what I want to do.

 

For example, if Clady were to make it past the top 10, I would call it very likely Denver would take him ahead of us. Rather than trade down, I would actually trade up for Clady.

 

But assuming no Clady, it would simply depend on who is there. I also like the idea of simply staying put and taking Williams, though I think there is a pretty decent chance even he is gone. As much as stockpiling picks would be nice, at the same time, I think it the priority is getting top talent. I think Williams can be a great LT, and finding that player is as important (or more) than stockpiling picks.

 

I will also say this. If we trade down, one player I would really like to see us target is Albert. All pro caliber OG, w/ potential to move outside. He even finished the year at LT, and while he would need more time to develop there, does have the potential for the move.

[Da Bears 88]

Draft Tom Zbikowski. I'd love to have that guy playing safety.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

Draft Tom Zbikowski. I'd love to have that guy playing safety.

Let's draft another safety who can't cover, except this time, he's slower then any safety we got.

[azbearsfan]

Draft Tom Zbikowski. I'd love to have that guy playing safety.

 

 

Thats why I love this board.....someone is always gonna make me laugh.

[nfoligno]

I have to agree with the trade down scenerio. Like you've hinted at though, we're better off waiting to see who's available. We got lucky as hell that Tommie Harris dropped down to #14. Last year Angelo said teams were calling him to trade for the #31 pick, but he wanted to stick with Olsen. Most of us would have been happy if we'd traded UP for Olsen.

 

No question we wait. Never understood early trades when you have no idea who will fall and who will go early. As for Olsen, I think if that happened this year, we may well have taken the trade down. Last year, we were coming off a SB appearance, and looking for a repeate. Now I think the idea we are one playmaker away is gone, and the need for a total infusion of talent is the new priority.

[AZ54]

I'd only trade down after seeing who was picked before us. If Williams is there I don't see why we wouldn't pick him. Sure we could use another pick on day one but giving up a big talent for what you think might be there later isn't worth it IMO. Then someone will trade up right before us and grab the QB or OT we wanted. If the top 3 LTs are all gone then I'd be happy with the trade down.

 

In that case, the question is going to be: Who's there that's worth a team trading up for? I can see some teams making that move for Ellis. Perhaps Mendenhall but I doubt anyone would make a huge jump for him.

[ParkerBear7]

Your right. The value of their two picks equates to around the 8th pick. I thought that our 1st and 3rd might have been close, but even givng one of our 3rd back would not be equal. Nice thought though.

 

So more likely, as you said, would be to try for a teams 1st and 2nd round picks.

Just to be clear, I am reasoning why I think Angelo will trade down. That is not necessarily what I want to do.

 

For example, if Clady were to make it past the top 10, I would call it very likely Denver would take him ahead of us. Rather than trade down, I would actually trade up for Clady.

 

But assuming no Clady, it would simply depend on who is there. I also like the idea of simply staying put and taking Williams, though I think there is a pretty decent chance even he is gone. As much as stockpiling picks would be nice, at the same time, I think it the priority is getting top talent. I think Williams can be a great LT, and finding that player is as important (or more) than stockpiling picks.

 

I will also say this. If we trade down, one player I would really like to see us target is Albert. All pro caliber OG, w/ potential to move outside. He even finished the year at LT, and while he would need more time to develop there, does have the potential for the move.

 

 

I have said this in a previous post that I believe JA would like to trade down especially if the top 3 LT's are off the board and I agree that Alberts would be a good pick for us especially if we got an additional 2nd rounder would provide more flexibibilty to fill needs with out reaching.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Angelo loves to stock pile picks, and especially now when we have so many needs, I think it is even more logical. We are not a player away. Not even close. We have many needs, and FA is not offering much, at least not in long term solutions.

 

Further, I look at what I believe Angelo is seeing as our top needs, and I am not sure if the positions matchup w/ where we draft.

 

OT - Long and Clady are gone. I think Williams is gone too, but even if he is there, would we view him as value? After Clady, you have a sizable group of OL that would be considered solid value late 1st, but this high?

 

QB - Though I have seen plenty of mocks w/ us taking Broham at 14, I do not believe he is a great value there. Flacco would be a huge reach. At the same time, neither are likely there for us in the 2nd.

 

RB/WR - While there will be players available at 14 that many would argue are good/great values, at the same time, the draft is deep at both positions, and great values can be had later as well.

 

Key for me though is QB. I think Angelo views getting a QB as a priority, but 14 is too high. If you look at the teams that draft after us in the 1st, the only team that I can see as even a posibility to draft a QB would be TB. However, 5 of the top 10 teams in the 2nd (minus whoever takes Ryan) I think would be very much looking at a QB. So Broham/Flacco may be there late 1st, but likely not by our pick in the 2nd.

 

So, I can see Angelo trading down. Best case scenario would be w/ Dallas, grabbing their two 1sts, but more likely, we trade down and pick up an extra 2nd and more. Then in the first, we grab our franchise QB (we pray). In the 2nd, we have two picks and will grab an OL (maybe Baker) and RB or WR. In the 3rd, we have 2, or even 3, picks to further stock pile RB/WR/OL, and maybe throw in a S.

 

When you look at what we have done on offense, it appears everything is short term. QBs are under short term deals. WRs added are one or two year deals. RB is on a last chance deal. So I can see Angelo trying to trade down, add picks, and simply stock pile picks to address the offense.

 

Lets say we do move down and find a suitor in SF. The trade works out with our 1-14 + 5-137 for SF 1-29 + 2-40.

The only way I'd like the move is if Clady/Williams are both gone at 14. Below are a couple of ways we could draft.

 

We draft:

1-29 Joe Flacco QB~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1-29 Branden Albert OG

2-40 Sam Baker OT ~~~~~~~~~~~~ 2-40 Sam Baker OT

2-45 Gosder Cherilus OT ~~~~~~~~~ 2-45 Early Doucet WR/Mario Manningham WR

3-76 Ray Rice RB ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 3-76 Ray Rice RB

3-91 Jordy Nelson WR ~~~~~~~~~~~ 3-91 Josh Johnson QB

4-107 Marcus Griffin FS ~~~~~~~~~~~ 4-107 Marcus Griffin FS/Wesley Woodard SS

5-traded ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~5 traded

6-173 Keenan Burton WR ~~~~~~~~~~~6-173 Keenan Burton WR

7-205 Jacob Hester FB ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 7-205 Jacob Hester FB

7-245 comp. (Chris Horston SS)~~~~~~~7-245 comp. SS/FS

7-250 comp. (BPA)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~7-250 comp. (BPA)

[nfoligno]

I'd only trade down after seeing who was picked before us. If Williams is there I don't see why we wouldn't pick him. Sure we could use another pick on day one but giving up a big talent for what you think might be there later isn't worth it IMO. Then someone will trade up right before us and grab the QB or OT we wanted. If the top 3 LTs are all gone then I'd be happy with the trade down.

 

In that case, the question is going to be: Who's there that's worth a team trading up for? I can see some teams making that move for Ellis. Perhaps Mendenhall but I doubt anyone would make a huge jump for him.

 

One, I would take Williams too, but I am talking about what I think Williams will do, not what I would do.

 

Two, who would teams trade up for? As you said, Mendenhall, and I would say Stewart as well. There are a few Corners that are getting high grades, and that is simply not a need for us, but is for others. DT/DE is not a great position in the draft, but at the same time, that could force teams in need to move up to get one of the higher rated ones. WR is the other position. Many have talked about the group being deep, but there are some very different WRs, and some teams very well could be high on a couple, likely available for us, but not high on those who could fall to the back end of the 1st.

 

Three, as for trading down for the QB, that is always a risk, but I think that is when you have to make choice on how far you trade down. If we went to the very end of round 1, we would be at greater risk, but if we drop 10 or so spots, that would be harder for a team in the 2nd to trade up, getting a team to totally drop out of the 1st round. If you take a look, there are not many, if any, teams in the 1st after us that would be looking at QB, so it would have to be the top 10 of the 2nd round looking to make a move into the 1st, which is not as easy.

[fenom283]

I like the San Fran trade because they are looking for a pass rusher and can easily get Phillip Merling or Derek Harvey before teams like Jacksonville, Minnesota, Washington or maybe Philadelphia do. A first and 5th will do to trade down.

 

1st Brandon Albert OG

2nd Sam Baker OT

2nd Joe Flacco QB

3rd Jamal Charles RB

3rd Demario Pressley DT

4th Jamar Adams

5th Owen Schmitt

6th BPA

7th BPA