What if this "Forte" prediction came true?

[Pixote]

Here is a prediction from Yahoo sports for Forte this year. If he lived up to this projection, would it fall short of you expectations, exceed your expectations, or is this what you were expecting? I am just curious what everyone is thinking Forte will offer the Bears in 2008.

 

'07 Stats (Tulane): 30.1 RUSH/G, 5.9 YPC, 177.3 RSYPG, 32 REC, 282 RECYDs, 23 TDs

Lowdown: Cedric Benson's Nick Nolte moment will forever be remembered as the day the Bears embarrassing running game turned around. Last season, Forte was the lone offensive standout on a four-win Tulane team. He single-handedly destroyed opposing defenses rushing for 2,127 yards, the seventh-highest single-season total in NCAA history. His burly 6-foot-1, 224-pound body, sticky-fingers and fall-forward style are an impeccable fit for Ron Turner's offense. In mini-camp, Turner was jazzed about the creative ways he could use Forte, going to extreme lengths to profess his "love" for the youngster. Yes, Chicago's offensive line is questionable, but the addition of No. 1 pick Chris Williams and Jon Tait's shift back to RT should make them serviceable enough to create gaps for Forte to plow through. Also, given the decrepit state of Chicago's air attack, he'll snag close to 30 catches, skyrocketing his PPR value. Given the Black and Blue's commitment to the run and Forte's well-rounded tools, he could be this year's Marshawn Lynch.

Fearless Forecast: 246 carries, 4.4 YPC, 1,082 rushing yards, 39 receptions, 274 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

[DrunkBomber]

To me it seems pretty accurate. I think if the line plays ok and he gets the carries he has the potential to exceed these predictions and I think he is a perfect fit for us. If he is as this article states he sounds like AP, Wolfe and Benson combined.

[Connorbear]

I would be extremely happy with these #s from Forte. That's approximately 16 carries a game which most likely leaves 100 to 150 between Peterson and Wolfe.

 

Peace

[AZ54]

I'd be very happy if he did that for us. I can say I'm not expecting him to hit 4.4 ypc behind our Oline but if he does that's great news for us. Add in the receptions (which I think is a reasonable expectation for him 2/game) and our offense has a different look than when we had Ced in there. One thing about Forte is that some of his receptions might be downfield versus on a quick swing route out of the backfield, or the usual dump-off underneath route. When your RB can catch well you have a different way to beat a blitz besides keeping him in to block...let him run into the void created by the LB as long as ReOrt (Rex/Orton) can make that read.

[Mongo3451]

I think Forte's situation is complex. For one, we really don't have a good barometer to gauge any projected stats. If Benson was truly out of shape and NOT hitting the hole with authority that may leave yards out there for Forte in two different ways. 1) Is the short plays where Benson was stacked up at the LOS. If Forte is quicker to the hole, he may be able to hit a few that Cedric didn't. It seemed AP was doing this a little more frequently, but couldn't out run anyone. 2) If Forte can hit the 2nd level, he has 4.4 speed. I'll assume that the box will be stacked again this year, which means there are opportunities to hit a big gainer now and then, but we'll have to struggle through a bunch of 2 yarders.

 

We also need to factor in a re-dedication of our OL. They are a prideful group and will want to rebound from a season of blame and shame. I can foresee a real fighting instinct in them this year. (sort of like a cornered animal)

 

On the flip side: We have no clue who Forte is. He has less odds of making than Benson did. We also have no clue who Chris Williams is either. It could be a jailbreak in our backfield this season.

 

With all said, I'm going to jump out on a limb and say Forte is my candadate for leading all rookies in rushing this year.

[chitownman]

It definitely is an interesting perdiction and if Forte does meet these projections, then we definitely will have a pretty decent running game for the first time in a while. I like what Forte has to bring to the table and hope that the "O" line is able to provide enough in the gaps for Matt to go through and from there who knows what will happen. Just wish we had a respectable signal caller to go along with this running back and don't forget we still need a quality deep threat as well. Overall though these numbers would be very respectable.

[Pixote]

Ok, now I will throw in my 2 cents.

 

This projection, in my opinion, has a flaw, one ConnorBear eluded to. It has him with 246 carries. If Forte is "the man" the Bears organization thinks he is, why only 15.37 carries a game? There were 13 RBs that averaged 18+ carries a game last year, 10 of those were 19+, 4 of those 20+.

 

If the Bears are going to go back to pounding the rock like is speculated, why only 15+ carries a game? That would have put him at 24th in the league in ave carries per game. It is not like we have a 2 headed monster at RB.

 

So with that in mind, I see Forte averaging let's say 19 carries a game, kind of in the top ten range of RBs for number of carries. Thomas Jones was 10th in the league last year in this area with 19.4 carries per game.

 

So if Forte carries 19 times per game, we are talking 304 carries for the year, a big difference IMO. Now, let's say he averages 4.2 yds per carry, (4.4 might be a bit high, depending on how quickly our OL can rebound) that would put Forte at 304X4.2=1276 rushing yds. At 4.4 it would be 304X4.4=1337

 

Now a days 1000 yds is not that big as an accomplishment as it was back in the days when schedules were shorter. I would be "slightly" disappointed with the 1082 yds predicted by Yahoo. I am looking for Forte to hit 1300 yds rushing.

 

I also see no reason he can not cross into the end zone 10+ times. He has power, no reason to take him out in goal line situations.

 

I think he will be around 50 receptions for 400+ yds, giving him a total offense from LOS at 1700 yds.

 

Year 2 is when he starts his string of seasons getting 2000+ yds a yr from the LOS (rushing & receiving yds combined)

 

Forte will be the next best thing to Neal Anderson (or better). There will never be another Payton.

[nfoligno]

With all said, I'm going to jump out on a limb and say Forte is my candadate for leading all rookies in rushing this year.

 

My vote would go to Jonathan Stewart who was drafted by the Panthers. Yea, we have Det in our division, but we also have Minny twice (best run defense) and GB (solid run D). Carolina gets Atlanta and NO twice each, neither of which can defend the run, and frankly, TB is no longer more than average in that regard. Carolina has a solid OL, and a passing attack that has to be respected, thus fewer stacked boxes.

 

He may not get it, but I think he is set up to succeed more so than Forte, who is in a tougher division, behind a questionable (at best) OL, an inconsistent passing attack (at best) and will face stacked boxes the majority of snaps.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

With all said, I'm going to jump out on a limb and say Forte is my candadate for leading all rookies in rushing this year.

 

My vote would go to Jonathan Stewart who was drafted by the Panthers. Yea, we have Det in our division, but we also have Minny twice (best run defense) and GB (solid run D). Carolina gets Atlanta and NO twice each, neither of which can defend the run, and frankly, TB is no longer more than average in that regard. Carolina has a solid OL, and a passing attack that has to be respected, thus fewer stacked boxes.

 

He may not get it, but I think he is set up to succeed more so than Forte, who is in a tougher division, behind a questionable (at best) OL, an inconsistent passing attack (at best) and will face stacked boxes the majority of snaps.

We got ATL, NO, TB, and HOU, too. We also got CAR once.

 

However, I agree. 1100 yards would be a nice solid rookie year.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I'd be very pleased with that sort of rookie season. However, if he's a full time starter I'd expect more carries and I have questions as to how he'll be able to handle a very heavy workload his rookie season. I know he was a workhorse in college, but you are still talking about 4 pre-season games as well as an additional 4 regular season games.

 

Plus as a rookie, you'd expect Forte to get a little bit more pre-season play than a typical starter would.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

I'd be very pleased with that sort of rookie season. However, if he's a full time starter I'd expect more carries and I have questions as to how he'll be able to handle a very heavy workload his rookie season. I know he was a workhorse in college, but you are still talking about 4 pre-season games as well as an additional 4 regular season games.

 

Plus as a rookie, you'd expect Forte to get a little bit more pre-season play than a typical starter would.

And maybe even 1 or 2 games in the postseason...or 3 or 4.

 

Just not this year.

[nfoligno]

Do you have any idea what you are putting on this kid?

 

I checked the stats. You have to go back all the way to 2001 to find a rookie RB who received 300 or more carries. That was Tomlinson, who didn't even have 4 ypc average.

 

In that same span, only TWO RBs (AP & Portis) had the 1,300 yards you are throwing out there for an expectation. 2 RBs in the last 7 years.

 

I know you talk about our "pounding the rock" but (a) we have heard our coaches say that before, including last year, but it didn't mean too much and ( we have to be careful not to kill our RB his first season. As it is, college players enter the NFL and have to play more games than what they are used to, which often leads to rookies hitting a wall. If you make him a workhorse from day one, I think you will find him wearing down sooner rather than later.

 

I also think the 4.4 ypc is a bit questionable w/ our entire offense a question mark. Frankly, I think if he has Anthony Thomas rookie rushing numbers, we should be pretty thrilled (278-1183 4.3 ypc avg & 7 TDs). OL is a huge question mark, as are QB and WR. We can hope it all works out, but how often does it when you have that many questions.

 

Here is what I see.

 

275 carries for 1,073 yards. That is a 3.9 ypc average, and every yard was hard faught. Throw in 6 rushing TDs.

 

I also see 55 catches for 450 yards and two more scores.

 

I agree 1,300 yards is a better standard for the elite RBs, but would also point out that few rookie RBs meet that standard. I have no problem w/ him cracking 1,000 his rookie year, than jumping higher after that.

 

I just do not think you realize how rare it is for a rookie RB to burst onto the scene as a bona fide elite RB stud. Most look very solid as a rookie, and then take a bigger step the following year.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

Do you have any idea what you are putting on this kid?

 

I checked the stats. You have to go back all the way to 2001 to find a rookie RB who received 300 or more carries. That was Tomlinson, who didn't even have 4 ypc average.

 

In that same span, only TWO RBs (AP & Portis) had the 1,300 yards you are throwing out there for an expectation. 2 RBs in the last 7 years.

 

I know you talk about our "pounding the rock" but (a) we have heard our coaches say that before, including last year, but it didn't mean too much and ( we have to be careful not to kill our RB his first season. As it is, college players enter the NFL and have to play more games than what they are used to, which often leads to rookies hitting a wall. If you make him a workhorse from day one, I think you will find him wearing down sooner rather than later.

 

I also think the 4.4 ypc is a bit questionable w/ our entire offense a question mark. Frankly, I think if he has Anthony Thomas rookie rushing numbers, we should be pretty thrilled (278-1183 4.3 ypc avg & 7 TDs). OL is a huge question mark, as are QB and WR. We can hope it all works out, but how often does it when you have that many questions.

 

Here is what I see.

 

275 carries for 1,073 yards. That is a 3.9 ypc average, and every yard was hard faught. Throw in 6 rushing TDs.

 

I also see 55 catches for 450 yards and two more scores.

 

I agree 1,300 yards is a better standard for the elite RBs, but would also point out that few rookie RBs meet that standard. I have no problem w/ him cracking 1,000 his rookie year, than jumping higher after that.

 

I just do not think you realize how rare it is for a rookie RB to burst onto the scene as a bona fide elite RB stud. Most look very solid as a rookie, and then take a bigger step the following year.

Me? Or is "you" directed at all of us?

[nfoligno]

It was a response to Pix

[adam]

This projection, in my opinion, has a flaw, one ConnorBear eluded to. It has him with 246 carries. If Forte is "the man" the Bears organization thinks he is, why only 15.37 carries a game? There were 13 RBs that averaged 18+ carries a game last year, 10 of those were 19+, 4 of those 20+.

 

If the Bears are going to go back to pounding the rock like is speculated, why only 15+ carries a game? That would have put him at 24th in the league in ave carries per game. It is not like we have a 2 headed monster at RB.

Pix,

If you consider touches, instead of just carries, he would have 285 touches, which is pretty good for a rookie RB. Also, his YPC would actually reduce the amount of rushes he had. If he was only averaging 3.4 like Bustson did last year, then he would have more carries.

[BearFan2000]

He's going to set records... as you know we get off the bus running the ball

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

He's going to set records... as you know we get off the bus running the ball

In our dreams...