Five key questions

[Wesson44]

How well the Bears answer five key questions will determine how many games they win in 2008:

 

1.Can they create turnovers the way Lovie Smith teams typically do?

 

Defensive coordinator Bob Babich calls it the " AT&T'' approach -- attack, tackle and takeaway. But lately the Bears cannot find a good connection with the way they like to play defense. Their defense created only 13 of their 33 takeaways in the first half of last season and by then it was too late to recover. Overall, that was 11 fewer takeaways than 2007.

 

Smith's teams need turnovers to win; he is 21-5 when winning the turnover battle since taking over in 2004. When the Bears have fewer takeaways than their opponents, they are 6-16, including 2-6 last season when aggressiveness and urgency were missing.

 

 

 

That reality should force Babich to attack more and utilize blitzes better, especially from linebackers, to manufacture chaos in the backfield so the ball pops loose more than it has. The Bears also need more than four combined interceptions from the cornerback duo of Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher, who are paid (well) to intercept passes.

 

2.Can they stop the run again in a Cover-2 defense?

 

They aren't going to junk Smith's signature defense, but if the Bears want to contend in the NFC North -- where the Vikings and Adrian Peterson live -- they must improve substantially against the run. The Bears held opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards only four times last season, hardly the sign of a dominant defense that forces opponents to be one-dimensional. They gave up 53 rushes of 10 or more yards and 15 that went 20 yards or more. Those are the numbers of a defense that can't get off the field.

 

A healthy Tommie Harris and Mike Brown should help, and the tackling better improve. The linebacker corps is too good to allow the defense to get gouged as it did in '07. Forget the day Peterson racked up a record 224 rushing yards against the Bears; seeing unproven Derrick Ward of the Giants ramble for 154 in November typified how far the run defense had fallen. That same sort of collapse cannot occur this season or it will be time to re-examine Smith's trademark scheme.

 

3.Can they improve their average yards per carry with a new backfield?

 

The Bears ranked last in the NFC and 31st in the NFL in yards per first-down play (4.44). That's directly related to their inability to establish a running game early, which sets up the rest of the West Coast offense. Of all the discouraging numbers from last year, averaging 3.1 yards per rush should motivate the Bears more than any other. Improve that, and the season is full of possibility. But if that doesn't change significantly, forget anything great in '08.

 

In Smith's tenure, the Bears are 12-6 when a running back surpasses 100 yards. More telling: In the past 25 seasons, the Bears are 61-2 when rushing 40 or more times in a game. That's the evidence Smith points to when insisting he wants to be a running team. The combination of Matt Forte and Kevin Jones at least gives Smith more confidence in the ground game than he had a year ago.

 

4.Can they continue winning the field-position battle because of Devin Hester?

 

Say what you will about Hester's potential impact on the offense, given the stage of his development it will be hard for him to affect the game more at wide receiver than he could returning kickoffs and punts -- especially kickoffs. An offense that needs good field position more than most needs Hester deep.

 

In 77 non-onside kickoffs last year, teams kicked away from Hester 33 times. The average starting field position for those possessions was the 38-yard line. More than half of those possessions (19) began beyond the 40. When teams kicked to Hester, the Bears' average starting point was their 31-yard line.

 

The Hester Effect involves more than highlight-reel returns. Winning those hidden-yardage battles will be key for a defense that has yet to find itself, as well as an offense that wants to control the ball and the clock.

 

5.Can they protect the passer well enough to avoid catastrophe?

 

In the Bears' seven victories of 2007, their quarterback was sacked 14 times -- an acceptable rate. But in their nine losses, the number jumped to 29 sacks, and no quarterback can get the job done under that kind of pressure. That's the biggest fear and question about this year's passing game; not who is throwing the ball to a committee of wide receivers but how well the pocket can be preserved.

 

Every future opponent saw in the exhibition game at Seattle what happens when teams blitz the Bears. The Bears insisted, somewhat stubbornly, that keeping John Tait at right tackle and John St. Clair on the left side was the correct decision. Now they must prove it. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner can help too by relying on the short, quick passing game and assigning running backs and tight ends to assist against outside rushes. But if Kyle Orton is to improve his passing percentage of 57.5 percent, as the Bears need him to do, the offensive line must protect him so Orton has time to show off his improved accuracy.

[madlithuanian]

1. I'd like to think so. However, on Sunday, I think the odds will be minimal due to the Colts not making big blunders. BBut that can be thwarted with sever pressue up front. It all stems there.

 

2. It sure doesn't look like it... I honestly do not know, but it doesn't look good.

 

3. I think so! THe new cast looks far better than the old one!

 

4. If Hester is back there, then yes!

 

5. I think Orton will protect himself better regardless of the O-line...and yes, this O-line should do a better job than last years'. How much better, we'll see.

 

 

How well the Bears answer five key questions will determine how many games they win in 2008:

 

1.Can they create turnovers the way Lovie Smith teams typically do?

 

Defensive coordinator Bob Babich calls it the " AT&T'' approach -- attack, tackle and takeaway. But lately the Bears cannot find a good connection with the way they like to play defense. Their defense created only 13 of their 33 takeaways in the first half of last season and by then it was too late to recover. Overall, that was 11 fewer takeaways than 2007.

 

Smith's teams need turnovers to win; he is 21-5 when winning the turnover battle since taking over in 2004. When the Bears have fewer takeaways than their opponents, they are 6-16, including 2-6 last season when aggressiveness and urgency were missing.

 

 

 

That reality should force Babich to attack more and utilize blitzes better, especially from linebackers, to manufacture chaos in the backfield so the ball pops loose more than it has. The Bears also need more than four combined interceptions from the cornerback duo of Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher, who are paid (well) to intercept passes.

 

2.Can they stop the run again in a Cover-2 defense?

 

They aren't going to junk Smith's signature defense, but if the Bears want to contend in the NFC North -- where the Vikings and Adrian Peterson live -- they must improve substantially against the run. The Bears held opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards only four times last season, hardly the sign of a dominant defense that forces opponents to be one-dimensional. They gave up 53 rushes of 10 or more yards and 15 that went 20 yards or more. Those are the numbers of a defense that can't get off the field.

 

A healthy Tommie Harris and Mike Brown should help, and the tackling better improve. The linebacker corps is too good to allow the defense to get gouged as it did in '07. Forget the day Peterson racked up a record 224 rushing yards against the Bears; seeing unproven Derrick Ward of the Giants ramble for 154 in November typified how far the run defense had fallen. That same sort of collapse cannot occur this season or it will be time to re-examine Smith's trademark scheme.

 

3.Can they improve their average yards per carry with a new backfield?

 

The Bears ranked last in the NFC and 31st in the NFL in yards per first-down play (4.44). That's directly related to their inability to establish a running game early, which sets up the rest of the West Coast offense. Of all the discouraging numbers from last year, averaging 3.1 yards per rush should motivate the Bears more than any other. Improve that, and the season is full of possibility. But if that doesn't change significantly, forget anything great in '08.

 

In Smith's tenure, the Bears are 12-6 when a running back surpasses 100 yards. More telling: In the past 25 seasons, the Bears are 61-2 when rushing 40 or more times in a game. That's the evidence Smith points to when insisting he wants to be a running team. The combination of Matt Forte and Kevin Jones at least gives Smith more confidence in the ground game than he had a year ago.

 

4.Can they continue winning the field-position battle because of Devin Hester?

 

Say what you will about Hester's potential impact on the offense, given the stage of his development it will be hard for him to affect the game more at wide receiver than he could returning kickoffs and punts -- especially kickoffs. An offense that needs good field position more than most needs Hester deep.

 

In 77 non-onside kickoffs last year, teams kicked away from Hester 33 times. The average starting field position for those possessions was the 38-yard line. More than half of those possessions (19) began beyond the 40. When teams kicked to Hester, the Bears' average starting point was their 31-yard line.

 

The Hester Effect involves more than highlight-reel returns. Winning those hidden-yardage battles will be key for a defense that has yet to find itself, as well as an offense that wants to control the ball and the clock.

 

5.Can they protect the passer well enough to avoid catastrophe?

 

In the Bears' seven victories of 2007, their quarterback was sacked 14 times -- an acceptable rate. But in their nine losses, the number jumped to 29 sacks, and no quarterback can get the job done under that kind of pressure. That's the biggest fear and question about this year's passing game; not who is throwing the ball to a committee of wide receivers but how well the pocket can be preserved.

 

Every future opponent saw in the exhibition game at Seattle what happens when teams blitz the Bears. The Bears insisted, somewhat stubbornly, that keeping John Tait at right tackle and John St. Clair on the left side was the correct decision. Now they must prove it. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner can help too by relying on the short, quick passing game and assigning running backs and tight ends to assist against outside rushes. But if Kyle Orton is to improve his passing percentage of 57.5 percent, as the Bears need him to do, the offensive line must protect him so Orton has time to show off his improved accuracy.

[lemonej]

The number one thing that will improve the Bears fortunes this season is an improved running attack.This will especially be key in tonights game.Run the ball control the clock and keep the defense fresh and off the field. As I remember from the Super Bowl the Colts battered the Bears with Addai and Rhodes running and threw short passes underneath the Bears zone.Look for them to employ a 3 WR set with Harrison,Wayne and Gonzalez in a bunch and Dallas Clark split on the other side.How would the Bears matchup with this formation.If they go to a nickel the Colts will hand the ball off to Addai.If the Bears stay base Cover 2 then Manning will pick them apart.

 

Here's My 5 Keys.

 

1.Run the ball and control the clock.

 

2.Stop the run

 

3.Try and take advantage of Bob Sanders in coverage with Clark or Olsen.

 

4.Get the ball in Hester's hands"By Any Means Necessary"

 

5.Win the turnover battle.

[Mongo3451]

name='lemonej' date='Sep 7 2008, 05:06 AM' post='46050']

 

Here's My 5 Keys.

 

1.Run the ball and control the clock.

 

2.Stop the run

 

3.Try and take advantage of Bob Sanders in coverage with Clark or Olsen.

 

4.Get the ball in Hester's hands"By Any Means Necessary"

 

5.Win the turnover battle.

Agreed with one and two in order of importance. I would move 5 up to 3 and make number four be a fearless gameplan on D. Then, I would move 3 to 5.

[Pixote]

How well the Bears answer five key questions will determine how many games they win in 2008:

 

1.Can they create turnovers the way Lovie Smith teams typically do?

 

2.Can they stop the run again in a Cover-2 defense?

 

3.Can they improve their average yards per carry with a new backfield?

 

4.Can they continue winning the field-position battle because of Devin Hester?

 

5.Can they protect the passer well enough to avoid catastrophe?

 

I have to agree with you, excellent post!!

[jason]

3.Can they improve their average yards per carry with a new backfield?

 

The Bears ranked last in the NFC and 31st in the NFL in yards per first-down play (4.44). That's directly related to their inability to establish a running game early, which sets up the rest of the West Coast offense. Of all the discouraging numbers from last year, averaging 3.1 yards per rush should motivate the Bears more than any other. Improve that, and the season is full of possibility. But if that doesn't change significantly, forget anything great in '08.

 

In Smith's tenure, the Bears are 12-6 when a running back surpasses 100 yards. More telling: In the past 25 seasons, the Bears are 61-2 when rushing 40 or more times in a game. That's the evidence Smith points to when insisting he wants to be a running team. The combination of Matt Forte and Kevin Jones at least gives Smith more confidence in the ground game than he had a year ago.

 

5.Can they protect the passer well enough to avoid catastrophe?

 

In the Bears' seven victories of 2007, their quarterback was sacked 14 times -- an acceptable rate. But in their nine losses, the number jumped to 29 sacks, and no quarterback can get the job done under that kind of pressure. That's the biggest fear and question about this year's passing game; not who is throwing the ball to a committee of wide receivers but how well the pocket can be preserved.

 

Every future opponent saw in the exhibition game at Seattle what happens when teams blitz the Bears. The Bears insisted, somewhat stubbornly, that keeping John Tait at right tackle and John St. Clair on the left side was the correct decision. Now they must prove it. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner can help too by relying on the short, quick passing game and assigning running backs and tight ends to assist against outside rushes. But if Kyle Orton is to improve his passing percentage of 57.5 percent, as the Bears need him to do, the offensive line must protect him so Orton has time to show off his improved accuracy.

 

As far as I'm concerned, 3 and 5 are the same thing. And, ultimately, the two combined are the actual single key to the season: Will the OL play well? Will they open holes and protect the passer? It's essentially the major difference between last year and the year before. With good OL play the year before, the Bears were in the SB. Without it, the offense looked atrocious.

 

For the record, my five keys:

1) Solid OL play

2) Winning the time of possession battle

3) Getting pressure on Manning

4) Avoiding injuries

5) Winning the battle of "big plays"