Ed Hochuli 3:16 Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 Does anybody know: 1. What the highest pick we can get? 2. What are the boundaries for him in terms of what range of yards/touchdowns/catches he has to get and what pick we get for that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearsFan Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 That's a tough question because the formula is a league secret. A guy on KFFL claims to have figured it out, but he probably won't make his predictions until after the season. Not all free agents qualify, and the formula favors teams that lost more qualifying free agents than it signed. We lost 5 to free agency and signed 5, which looks like a wash. The Bears lost Berrian, Ayanbadejo, Ruben Brown, Gilmore, and Jimmy Kennedy to free agency. They signed Lloyd, Booker, Kevin Jones, Jason Davis, and Hamilton. Ruben may not qualify since nobody signed him. Davis might not since he bounced around so much and was just signed to the roster. Hamilton might not because he was signed while on waivers. They could still get a comp pick even if there isn't a net loss, based on Berrian being a better player than any the Bears signed, but the league doesn't give many of those out and they're 7th rounders. It'll be interesting to see what happens! . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 Agreed the formula, whatever it is, is very complicated, and IMHO, subjective. I am not sure every signing counts. For example, when you sign undrafter rookie FAs, I am not sure they count. I am not sure minimal salary guys even count. I think the key is among the more significant signings, as well as losses. I think there is a decent chance we get something for Berrian, but while he was a starter and our leading receiver (like that means much), he was not a pro bowl player or a franchise guy. But he was a starter and was signed by another team for big bucks, which I think factors. IMHO, I would hope for a 5th, but expect a 6th or 7th. I doubt very seriously we would get a 4th for him. That's a tough question because the formula is a league secret. A guy on KFFL claims to have figured it out, but he probably won't make his predictions until after the season. Not all free agents qualify, and the formula favors teams that lost more qualifying free agents than it signed. We lost 5 to free agency and signed 5, which looks like a wash. The Bears lost Berrian, Ayanbadejo, Ruben Brown, Gilmore, and Jimmy Kennedy to free agency. They signed Lloyd, Booker, Kevin Jones, Jason Davis, and Hamilton. Ruben may not qualify since nobody signed him. Davis might not since he bounced around so much and was just signed to the roster. Hamilton might not because he was signed while on waivers. They could still get a comp pick even if there isn't a net loss, based on Berrian being a better player than any the Bears signed, but the league doesn't give many of those out and they're 7th rounders. It'll be interesting to see what happens! . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 Agreed the formula, whatever it is, is very complicated, and IMHO, subjective. I am not sure every signing counts. For example, when you sign undrafter rookie FAs, I am not sure they count. I am not sure minimal salary guys even count. I think the key is among the more significant signings, as well as losses. I think there is a decent chance we get something for Berrian, but while he was a starter and our leading receiver (like that means much), he was not a pro bowl player or a franchise guy. But he was a starter and was signed by another team for big bucks, which I think factors. IMHO, I would hope for a 5th, but expect a 6th or 7th. I doubt very seriously we would get a 4th for him. I believe we will get the following: 3rd -Benard Berrian signed 4yr 42 mil (over 7 mil/yr) The first thing the NFL supposely looks at is contract length/amount, second is playing time, third is offseason achievements. With the order I have them carrying the weight in factoring the pick. Also, last yrs 3rd comps were: WAS from Dockery who signed a 7 mil contact, CIN from Steinbach 6.9, and BAL from A. Thomas 6.9 7th - Brendon Ayenbedejo signed 4yr 4.9 mil (probably nothing) 7th - John Gilmore signed 3yr 4 mil All of our FA signings were players that were released or cut by there teams and that has no factor. They have to be a true RFA, signed after July 22 and before June 1. Also needed is significant playing time and a salary higher than 750,000$. Ayenbendejo might not get us a comp b/c his playing time was mainly ST. So my guess is we should at LEAST get a 4th for Berrian and a 7th for Gilmore. At most 3rd for BB and (2) 7th's for BA and JG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 No way I can see us getting a pck for Gilmore. He was our 3rd string TE. I would love to see a 3rd for Berrian, but I just do not see it happening. Heck, I don't even see a 4th. I still think more likely a 5th. I believe we will get the following: 3rd -Benard Berrian signed 4yr 42 mil (over 7 mil/yr) The first thing the NFL supposely looks at is contract length/amount, second is playing time, third is offseason achievements. With the order I have them carrying the weight in factoring the pick. Also, last yrs 3rd comps were: WAS from Dockery who signed a 7 mil contact, CIN from Steinbach 6.9, and BAL from A. Thomas 6.9 7th - Brendon Ayenbedejo signed 4yr 4.9 mil (probably nothing) 7th - John Gilmore signed 3yr 4 mil All of our FA signings were players that were released or cut by there teams and that has no factor. They have to be a true RFA, signed after July 22 and before June 1. Also needed is significant playing time and a salary higher than 750,000$. Ayenbendejo might not get us a comp b/c his playing time was mainly ST. So my guess is we should at LEAST get a 4th for Berrian and a 7th for Gilmore. At most 3rd for BB and (2) 7th's for BA and JG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearSox Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 No way I can see us getting a pck for Gilmore. He was our 3rd string TE. I would love to see a 3rd for Berrian, but I just do not see it happening. Heck, I don't even see a 4th. I still think more likely a 5th. We're getting a 3rd for Berrian, that's almost a guarantee. He is on pace for over 1,000 yards, is averaging 21 ypc, and will have probably 7-8 TD's. That's at least a 4th rounder with a very likely chance for a 3rd rounder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Hochuli 3:16 Posted December 2, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 We're getting a 3rd for Berrian, that's almost a guarantee. He is on pace for over 1,000 yards, is averaging 21 ypc, and will have probably 7-8 TD's. That's at least a 4th rounder with a very likely chance for a 3rd rounder. But how do you know? That isn't a smarta** question, I'm just curious because how do we know what standards were set? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 But how do you know? That isn't a smarta** question, I'm just curious because how do we know what standards were set? My thought is it will be a 3rd to a 5th rounder. Would also be nice if we can get a 7th rounder for Brendan. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 Let's just hope JA filled in all the right boxes this time! My thought is it will be a 3rd to a 5th rounder. Would also be nice if we can get a 7th rounder for Brendan. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 Let's just hope JA filled in all the right boxes this time! I think the situation your referring to had to do with RFAs (Holdman and Bates). No checkbox required in this situation. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 Besides the Minny DT's send to their room w/o dinner, there's at least one more break! I think the situation your referring to had to do with RFAs (Holdman and Bates). No checkbox required in this situation. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearSox Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 http://adamjt13.blog.com/2813029/ That guy has probably discovered the formula for what the comp picks are, and he is crazy accurate every year. I have only skimmed through it, but if you want to study his reasoning, be my guest. Basically it goes by which UFA's you lost, and which ones you gain. I do not believe we signed any UFA's, and any of the UFA's we did sign were either only with the team for a short period or do not earn enough money to qualify (someone correct me if I'm wrong on this). Also, a factor is the money, and in 07 the least amount a 3rd round comp player signed for war 6.05 million per year. If I am correct, Berrian is earning an average of about 7 million or so per year, if not more. Other factors include playing time, playoffs, and any accolades that player receives. Also, it doesn't matter what role a player did on his prior team if he falls into these categories. So, I say it's very, and I mean very, likely that we get a 3rd round comp. for Berrian, a 7th for Ayanbadejo, and another 7th rounder for Gilmore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 http://adamjt13.blog.com/2813029/ That guy has probably discovered the formula for what the comp picks are, and he is crazy accurate every year. I have only skimmed through it, but if you want to study his reasoning, be my guest. Basically it goes by which UFA's you lost, and which ones you gain. I do not believe we signed any UFA's, and any of the UFA's we did sign were either only with the team for a short period or do not earn enough money to qualify (someone correct me if I'm wrong on this). Also, a factor is the money, and in 07 the least amount a 3rd round comp player signed for war 6.05 million per year. If I am correct, Berrian is earning an average of about 7 million or so per year, if not more. Other factors include playing time, playoffs, and any accolades that player receives. Also, it doesn't matter what role a player did on his prior team if he falls into these categories. So, I say it's very, and I mean very, likely that we get a 3rd round comp. for Berrian, a 7th for Ayanbadejo, and another 7th rounder for Gilmore. Thanks Bearsox, that's the same guy I was basing my opinion on. I say were almost guaranteed a 3rd for Berrian and worst case and that's if the NFL really hates us is a 4th. The contract Gilmore signed should net us a 7th just for the $/yrs he signed for and the same w/ Ayanbadejo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 Thanks Bearsox, that's the same guy I was basing my opinion on. I say were almost guaranteed a 3rd for Berrian and worst case and that's if the NFL really hates us is a 4th. The contract Gilmore signed should net us a 7th just for the $/yrs he signed for and the same w/ Ayanbadejo. I would be extremely happy if this is the case. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Hochuli 3:16 Posted December 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 If we got a 3rd, I'd be ecstatic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 If we got a 3rd, I'd be ecstatic. I agree, the big hits in the draft usually come in the first 3 rounds. If we can pick up an additional 3rd rounder we can get a quality "prospect" to fill a hole. It would be great if we can get such a compensation pick. Guess I will be pulling for Berrian to rack up some stats the remaining part of the season, LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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