Which would you rather have?

[madlithuanian]

Interesting...

 

I guess Mark Twain was right! There are lies, damn lies, and statistics...

 

Although, as nfo mentioned, it does give some hope that Hester can develop into something decent to very good...

 

Choice #1- Steve Smith after 2 seasons.

Choice #2- Devin Hester after 2 seasons.

 

Thoughts?

[Lucky Luciano]

I would argue we had a deep threat this past year in Hester, but that alone did little to free up the underneath. Just having a deep threat does little if (a) you don't have an OL that can protect the QB, you don't have a QB defenses fear can connect w/ that deep threat on a consistent basis and © you don't have WRs who can utilize a more open underneath.

 

I would point to our time w/ Rex and Berrian. I would argue that, even though we had a downfield threat, it did little to move defensive players out of the box. Teams continued to send the dogs because we could not protect Rex. Even if Rex connected w/ Berrian, it was not on a consistent enough basis to warrant opponents respect.

 

1. just what are the parameters of the original question "Which would you rather have after 2 years, and why?"?

 

to me that says after 2 years in chicago which type of receiver would you "rather" have with the stats provided. if you picked #1 you have a deep threat wide receiver in chicago in 2 years with the information provided. if you picked #2 you have a possession receiver in chicago with the information provided.

 

seems pretty simple to me or you'd go nuts figuring out how X receiver (wherever he comes from) with X linemen and X qb from chicago would PROJECT to be stats wise don't ya think?? otherwise you could say anything about the receiver in question. he could be from a team with the poorest offense in the nfl or he could be one from the best. to top that off, maybe orton will play like john elway this coming season too. quiji board time.

 

as far as grossman... what does he have to do with anything? are we now going to go back and determine whether it was grossman or the OL's fault for each and every sack? sure they sent the dogs because we had no running game, ONE average + receiver and a qb who was one of the worst qb in the pocket i have ever seen to go along with a consistent 3rd and long.

 

incidently our stats for sacks allowed went from 22nd in 2007 to 12th best in 2008.

 

One, I agree Hester is not a #1, but I would argue he is a deep threat, and would benefit far more from a legit possession WR than playing opposite another deep threat.

 

Two, we may have an entire receiving corps that is "supposed" to be possession receivers, but they suck. Lloyd is gone, and likely Booker too. Davis should be considered no more than deep depth/special teams and we have no idea what we have w/ Bennett. You say we have a bunch of possession WRs, but I would argue that after Hester, we simplty have nothing.

 

1. well which is it? you state you now believe hester is a deep threat receiver and later “view him as a slot guy”. plus, even you won't admit hester is even worthy of being our #2 receiver!!! being a #3 or lower receiver surely is not being a serious every down threat no matter what type of receiver you are considered in my book.

 

2. when have i ever argued any receiver on this entire team is even average let alone better than “nothing”? whether good, bad, or otherwise there is not a single deep threat POSSIBILITY on our entire squad other than the receiver you believe would be a slot receiver.

 

 

i think you could even look at the 85 bears as a prime example. we had gault as a stretch receiver. in my opinion he wasn't that good of a receiver, BUT... what he DID do was extend the field to give our possession receivers, TE's, RB's a lot more room to make plays. he had to be accounted for because he had the speed to break the game open.

 

Huh? You think Gault stretched the field for the '85 bears. As I recall, Gault had speed, but benefited far more from the rest of the offense, rather than making your case of a deep threat spreading things out. Regardless of Gault's deep threat, defenses still geared up to stop Walter, and Gault was simply able to capitolize on that. If we didn't have the OL we did in '85, or a QB that could connect w/ Gault, I question how much value his speed would have brought.

 

i’m sorry but your recollection or reasoning is faulty. gault had world class speed and WAS specifically used in most instances as a receiver who burned it to pull the defensive backs with him in coverage defending the long ball (opening up our running game AND our short passing attack). in ’85 gault was the top receiver but with only 700 of the 3303 receiving yards for the entire season. our runningbacks, combined, had more rec. yards than gault!! for crying out loud, he ran poor routes and had average, AT BEST, hands and never in his career had a 1000 yd season. why else would they have put him on the field?

 

note... aren’t we talking about a receiver who is projecting to be far BETTER than gault in this discussion anyway??

 

i guess it would come down to this... if you had a choice for a wide receiver in his prime, would you choose chad johnson or housawhatever? a moss or burlson? me i take a johnson or moss deep threat without even blinking.

 

I take TJ over CJ, but Moss over anyone (character aside). Moss was more than just a deep threat. Moss was simply put, one of the most talented WRs of all time, and not exactly a fair comparison. I would take TJ over CJ though, and I think that is a better comparison, and would point to this year as a GREAT example of why. CJ totally sucked this year, and two huge reasons were (a) Cincy's OL stunk and the QB never had time to look deep and (cool.gif After Palmer went down, Cincy didn't have a QB capable of getting the ball downfield. So, w/o an ideal OL/QB situation, CJ looked like a one trick pony. He ran downfield, but never was a factor due to the QB and OL issues. I realize there were other issues, but those two are keys IMHO. So w/o the solid QB and OL play, CJ finished the year w/ 53 catches for 540 yards. Simply put, Cincy didn't have the horses to utilize him, and he became a non-factor. Meanwhile, TJ had 92 catches for 900 yards and emerged as the only weapon on the offense. Opponents no longer double teamed CJ, but sent the extra coverage to TJ.

 

TJ over johnson in his prime? all i can say is, wow. TJ may be a very good receiver but johnson is a 5 time pro-bowl, 3 time all-pro receiver who racked up SIX straight thousand plus yard seasons!! to me that’s franchise quality.

 

Just for the record, I am FAR from convinced Hester is a legit #2, and have actually often said I view him as a slot guy, but I would argue the teams plans have him as a starter, and believe we should debate w/ that as the assumption.

 

I understand the chicken/egg analogy, but would make the following point. Whether it was Hester, Lloyd, Davis or whoever, when Orton was throwing the ball deep, how often did he connect? Is it your argument Orton has a solid arm w/ accuracy downfield? Few would argue such. If not, then I would say this year shows how ineffective a pure speed threat WR would be in our offense. We lack the OL to protect the QB long enough to look deep and the QB w/ the proven deep accuracy to consistently hit that go route.

 

i am really confused. now you only want to debate what ‘our’ coaching staff/gm believes? they believed last season all these receivers were good enough to not only play in chicago but start. they believed our current roster of offensive linemen were just dandy to start the 2008 season etc. etc. etc.

 

whatever orton’s accuracy is or isn’t i do believe he has a solid arm. “just for the record”, you don’t? i also believe orton CAN improve on his deep ball as it is just a matter of timing between him and his receivers (or lack thereof).

 

you know i find it amazing that you and others are looking at orton as if he were a grizzled veteran starter and what you see is what you get. this guy has started ONE season in his entire career. in that time, and especially before he injured his ankle, the guy has shown some real promise especially considering he is playing behind an atrocious run blocking offensive line, an average pass blocking line, has not a single #1 receiver (or #2 for that matter), and relied nearly entirely on our TE’s for his passing attack and had a defense that opponents racked up serious riding time and points.

 

am i saying he is great at this point in his career? of course not!! but i will say he does have potential at this point in his career to become a good to very good + ball player. does that mean i bet the farm he progresses into that player and do nothing at that position in our future like angie did with grossman? HELL no.

 

Agreed all our WRs have the same MO. They suck. Seriously though, I would argue the only WR who we should expect to start is of a different MO (Hester). The rest may have the same MO, but are they even on the team next year, or part of the plan? You can say they are possession WRs, and thus it proves we need something else. I would argue they simply suck, and it proves we simply need better quality.

 

do you also believe our TE’s suck? do you also believe our passing game to our RB’s sucks also? look... i agree our receiving corp is bad. but in my estimation we have in our TE’s very good possession type receivers and need someone who has the ‘ability’ to clear out the zones and stretch the field.

 

No, I am not saying you ignore stud talent just because you don't have all the pieces in place. At the same time, it is a building process, and IMHO, adding a stud deep threat to this team right now would not benefit the offense in general, or the players own development. How much development will he see running down the field a bunch, just to turn around and run back to the huddle after our QB is sacked.

 

i just don’t get your reasoning. in one breath you say it’s “a building process” with this team, and in the next you base your assumptions on our team being in stasis for the next 2 years.

 

you think just because a receiver is a deep threat type of player that that is ALL he does is run downfield on post routes with lightning speed? that is nonsense.

 

you don’t even NEED supersonic speed to be a deep threat. for crying out loud do you think moss is fast? or owens? or for that matter jerry rice??? all three of those mentioned are/were serious deep threat receivers and ran a 4.5 or worse 40!!!

 

this whole model scenario is based on the production that was initially listed at the start of this thread so how can i or anyone converse about this without the assumption the receiver we got actually put up the numbers stated initially?

 

If all we look at is the previously provided stats, then I truly don't see how you go w/ the option you did. Option two had more catches and more touchdowns. While the yards were fewer, were they really that much fewer? That is why I altered the numbers in another post. If you use the numbers provided, the yardage difference just doesn't even warrant consideration IMHO for the guy w/ fewer catches and scores. If the yardage difference was great, than at least the argument for that guy would be more substantial.

 

what are you talking about? so WHAT if he had more catches. who CARES if the yardage is close. the point is a possession type receiver is NOT a deep threat receiver who stretches the field and pulls more defenders from underneath to cover him. haven’t you SEEN enough our offense to make a determination? why don’t you think there was much YAC for our receivers? why don’t you think our running game was as good as it could have been without 8-9 men in the box?

 

with a true deep threat wideout, what do you think our #2 wide receiver is making in yards? or our TE’s yardage, our RB’s passing yards, our RB’s running yards and what do you get? a better offense, that’s what!!

 

As for 1,000 yard WRs, sorry, but big deal. There were 22 1,000 yard WRs this past year. Just as w/ RBs, I don't think 1,000 yards is a mark of greatness anymore. Two WRs I think perfect for our discussion.

 

Lee Evans - 63-1,017-3 compared to TJ Hous 92-904-4.

 

You can have Evans. I'll take TJ. Evans can be great if you have a great QB, but if you have a decent/good QB, I think TJ benefits the offense far more. IMHO, deep threat WRs like Evans can look unbelievable, but need a great QB for that to happen. Lacking a great QB, they are mearly inconsistent deep threats. On the other hand, a WR like TJ does far more to help a decent QB become good, and helps a decent offense the same way.

 

big deal? how many deep threat +1000 yrd receivers have we had in chicago over the last 10 years? if you said TWO you win a cigar. know who and when?

 

1999 robinson – 1400 yds – s. matthews

2001 – booker – 1070 yds – j. miller

2002 – booker – 1189 yds – j. miller

 

that’s SIX freakin years since we had any receiver go over 1000 yards. by the way, which of those qb’s do YOU consider to have a strong arm and great deep ball?

 

One, the point was Mason TODAY is absolutely not considered a deep threat. Regardless whether or not he is the teams #1, there is no question he plays the role of a possession WR, and that is what helped Flacco this year.

 

As for whether or not Ward was an 18+ yard threat downfield, all I have to say is, check the stats. If you look at Ward's YPC over the years, I would argue there is no question he was a possession WR. You can say possession plus if you want, as he did have the ability to run downfield routes, but he did NOT beat DBs w/ pure speed. Rather, he beats DBs w/ precise route running and making great plays on the ball. Check his stats. Ward has five 1,000+ yards seasons, and in those seasons, his avg. ypc is between 10.7 and 12.9. Not even his highest average would be considered more than a possession WR. Compare that to Chad Johnson, who you use as an example. CJ consistently put up 14, 15 and 16 average yards per catch. That is big play. 10, 11 or 12 is far more consistent w/ possession WRs.

 

Let me ask you this. Back when Booker was in his prime w/ us, what sort of WR would you call him. Many called him a possession plus WR, as he was a possession WR, but able to run patterns further downfield. He could ran a 15-20 yard post pattern, rather than just a 5-10 yarder. He didn't beat DBs w/ speed, but w/ route running and just making great plays on the ball. I would argue Booker then was very simlar to Mason or Ward. Further, I would argue TJ Hous has proven to be very much in that same realm.

 

TJ, who you simply consider a possession WR, has proven capable of (a) Big catch totals © going over the 1,000 mark © red zone threat (d) being more than a chain moving possession WR, as seen w/ his 12-13 ypc avg.

 

Just because a WR doesn't have elite speed doesn't mean he can't gain more than 5-10 yards. The above WRs all would be considered possession or possession plus receivers. None had great speed, but all were/are capable of making plays both underneath and downfield, but simply doing it is a different fashion than the likes of Henderson, Lee Evans or Chad Johnson.

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1. are we now talking about what old receivers are considered today? the last i heard we were comparing which TYPE of receiver you would want in chicago.

 

2. when did i ever say 18+ yards or whatever qualifies a receiver to be a deep threat? that is YOUR reasoning not mine. i have to add... if you don’t think ward OR mason were/are deep threat receivers you are just plain wrong.

 

as far as booker? yea i think i would call him a deep threat type receiver in his prime. franchise player good? no.

 

you know, i don’t recall i ever said that TJ wasn’t a deep threat type of receiver. what i DID say is i would take a johnson type of franchise caliber receiver rather than TJ. in their prime. why? because he was better at it. he had more tools than TJ.

 

could TJ be considered a deep threat receiver today? even if you think he was/is a possession type receiver i would probably answer yes. would i still take johnson in his prime? yes.

 

3. again... you are taking what i stated out of context. show me where i EVER stated a deep threat wideout needs “elite” speed to be one.

 

finally... just what is a possession type receiver in your estimation? i’m not sure you know.

 

when i think of one, i think of a tom waddle type receiver. someone with good hands that plays a lot over the middle and can take a big hit and still hang on to the ball. someone who can catch the ball in traffic for first downs with linebackers and safeties sniffing him. basically in a 10 yard zone from the LOS who adds up yardage with consistency. rarely do you see a player of this type go more than 1000 yards in a season.

[BearSox]

Choice #1- Steve Smith after 2 seasons.

Choice #2- Devin Hester after 2 seasons.

 

Thoughts?

I win!