Is OL the safest pick

[nfoligno]

I hear it over and over, so I wanted to check a bit. There is probably some legit study piece out there that went into far greater detail, but when looking over the 1st round OL drafted in the last 10 years, it sure does seem like OL is a pretty safe pick. Does that mean there we no busts? Obviously not, but the number simply seems less.

 

One potential reason, IMHO, is how many OTs were drafted in the 1st, who were expected to be LTs, but didn't make it there and ended up becoming solid RTs or inside OL. Their inability to play LT may have been a disappointment, yet at the same time, still being a solid or better starter is a huge plus. Is there any other position where you can draft a player, and if he can't make it there, he has a good shot to make it after a move? Drafting a CB who might become a FS is about the closest thing I can think of.

 

OL drafted in the last 10 years.

 

Ryan Clady

Chris Williams

Branden Albert

Gosder Cherilus

Jeff Otah

Sam Baker

Duane Brown

Levi Brown

Joe Staley

Ben Grubbs

D'Brickashaw Ferguson

Davin Joseph

Jammal Brown

Logan Mankins

Robert Gallery

Shawn Andrews

Jordan Gross

George Foster

Kwame Harris

Vernon Carey

Mike Williams

Bryant McKinnie

Levi Jones

Marc Colombo

Leonard Davis

Kenyatta Walker

Jeff Backus

Chris Samuels

Stockar McDougle

Chris McIntosh

Kendall Simmons

John Tait

Matt Stinchcomb

Luke Petitgout

L.J. Shelton

Aaron Gibson

Steve Hutchinson

Kyle Turley

Tra Thomas

Mo Collins

Victor Riley

Alan Faneca

 

That is an impressive list of starting OL there. Some didn't make it at all. Some didn't make it at their expected position, but moved to another position and played well. The point though, is there another position where we would see as solid of a list?

 

While I am not saying we can't consider WR, QB or other positions, more and more evidence supports our going after OL in round one. The bust ratio is simply MUCH lower, and I just feel we can not afford another bust.

[akshaz]

While I am not saying we can't consider WR, QB or other positions, more and more evidence supports our going after OL in round one. The bust ratio is simply MUCH lower, and I just feel we can not afford another bust.

 

Agreed! Also, once a team has a big-time offensive lineman, they rarely leave until they already have one foot out of the league. They are just like QBs. How many big-time FA LTs can anyone come up with? I'd bet the list to be very short. They are almost as rare as a big-time QB being available on the open market.

 

You plug in a big time OL (LT especially) and he's your guy for the next 10 years.

[Mongo3451]

Yes, OL is the safest bet for 1st round picks. I believe the stat is 68% become starters.

[Stinger226]

Yes, OL is the safest bet for 1st round picks. I believe the stat is 68% become starters.

I think OL is a need and will have someone there worth drafting. Unless a top 10 type stud drops at another position down to us, then it is a no brainer.

[madlithuanian]

I'd probably agree with that assessment not knowing true stats. My gut feeling is that RB's probalby pan out at a higher %-age than other positions. Not Sanders/Brown/Payton kind of guys, but workman-like guys like Thomas Jones....

 

Since 2000:

 

2000: Jamal Lewis, T. Jones , Dayne (bust), S. Alexander, Candidate (bust) 60%

2001: LT, McAlister, Bennett (bust) 67%

2002: Wm. Green (bust). Ducket (fair), 0%

2003: mcGahee, LJ, 100%

2004: S Jackson, Chris Perry (bust), Kevin Jones (fair) 33%

2005: Brown, Benson (bust), Williams (fair), 33%

2006: Bush, Maroney (fair) , D. Williams, Aaadi 75%

2007: AP, Lynch, 100%

2008: McFadden (looks OK, bad team), Stewart (looks very good), Jones (good), Mendenhall (?), Chris Johnson (good) 80%

 

Overall in the span, 18 good, 11 bust or fair 62%...that's pretty good.

[jason]

This topic and list of names is even more proof that the Bears must draft OL in the first this year.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I'd probably agree with that assessment not knowing true stats. My gut feeling is that RB's probalby pan out at a higher %-age than other positions. Not Sanders/Brown/Payton kind of guys, but workman-like guys like Thomas Jones....

 

Since 2000:

 

2000: Jamal Lewis, T. Jones , Dayne (bust), S. Alexander, Candidate (bust) 60%

2001: LT, McAlister, Bennett (bust) 67%

2002: Wm. Green (bust). Ducket (fair), 0%

2003: mcGahee, LJ, 100%

2004: S Jackson, Chris Perry (bust), Kevin Jones (fair) 33%

2005: Brown, Benson (bust), Williams (fair), 33%

2006: Bush, Maroney (fair) , D. Williams, Aaadi 75%

2007: AP, Lynch, 100%

2008: McFadden (looks OK, bad team), Stewart (looks very good), Jones (good), Mendenhall (?), Chris Johnson (good) 80%

 

Overall in the span, 18 good, 11 bust or fair 62%...that's pretty good.

 

C'mon, stop being a Benson hater ( j k ). Benson IMO will elevate himself to the fair range (have a couple of 1000yd seasons) before his career is over, but he'll never achieve greatness b/c of were he was drafted.

 

Like you said, first rd RB's usually pan out at a good %,, but I would also like to see what % of 2nd RDers succeed, 3rd RD, etc. RB is probably the easiest to make a transistion to and a 2nd tier prospect's drop off from a 1st tier isn't as great IMO as say a OT or QB.

[nfoligno]

Agreed. While I am not going to do the homework, I would not be surprised to find that while 1st round RBs do well, you will find more later drafted RBs also doing well at a much higher percentage than at OT. So while both may have similar 1st round stats (a) RB is not a need for us in the 1st round and ( if RB is also a position that hits at a high rate later, it may be better to hold off and wait rather than go after that top RB.

 

I would further argue that if we do add a solid OL in the 1st, that too will increase the likelihood of our current RBs having a great career.

 

C'mon, stop being a Benson hater ( j k ). Benson IMO will elevate himself to the fair range (have a couple of 1000yd seasons) before his career is over, but he'll never achieve greatness b/c of were he was drafted.

 

Like you said, first rd RB's usually pan out at a good %,, but I would also like to see what % of 2nd RDers succeed, 3rd RD, etc. RB is probably the easiest to make a transistion to and a 2nd tier prospect's drop off from a 1st tier isn't as great IMO as say a OT or QB.

[nfoligno]

Which means we will draft WR

 

This topic and list of names is even more proof that the Bears must draft OL in the first this year.

['TD']

It's sort of an unrelated subject, but I was reading this article earlier on yahoo. It's obviously just talking about one aspect of an player, but it sort reinforces that I want the Bears to draft a LT prospect and let the chips lay where they may at the tackle spots. I'm not writing Chris Williams off because he has short arms, but considering his injury too, if we are going T in the first why not go LT and let them fight it out. This is more in reply to the post the other day about the one guy being a good RT prospect and not LT.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AkTY...o&type=lgns

 

Behind the measurements: Height vs. arm length

 

By National Football Post 11 hours, 19 minutes ago

 

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Every year at the NFL scouting combine, draft prospects strip down to their underwear and parade in front of scouts and executives in an event known as the weigh-in. This is the first time official heights and weights are taken on each player. However, two other vital pieces of information are also recorded that have just as much importance in determining how “big” a potential NFL prospect will play. Those numbers are reach (the length of a prospect’s arm) and hand size (the length from the pinkie finger to the thumb).

 

Football is a contact sport in which collisions occur on virtually every play. Most NFL players are asked to win battles at the point of attack, and the players with the biggest frames and longest reaches have a clear advantage when engaging opposing players.

 

Photo McNeill has been a two-time Pro Bowler for the Chargers.

(Luc Leclerc/US Presswire)

 

The reach or arm length of an NFL prospect is a key attribute to any position, especially those on the line of scrimmage. However, no position is more crucial when it comes to reach than offensive tackle. To put into perspective how offensive linemen are either helped or hindered by reach, I want to look at two former prospects with similar height/weight numbers whose paths in the NFL have been markedly different.

 

Offensive tackles Adam Terry of the Baltimore Ravens and Marcus McNeill from the San Diego Chargers are former second-round picks (Terry in 2005, McNeill in 2006) who weighed in during their combine appearances at around 330 pounds. However, the key difference during each player’s weigh-in was the discrepancy in reach. Even at an inch shorter than Terry (6-foot-8), McNeill had the longer reach: 35½ inches; compared to 32¼. So we have two men who are roughly the same size, but McNeill has the length to match and maximize his 6-7 frame. Terry’s length forces him to play like a tackle closer to 6-3.

 

There are other variables that go into an equation like this, but the fact is, McNeill has been the Chargers’ starting left tackle each of the past three years, while Terry has bounced back and fourth between starter and back up the past four years and looks to be limited to the right tackle position. Again, there are other variables to be considered, but you have to figure the 3-plus-inch reach advantage McNeill has over Terry must be a significant factor why one player has been successful and the other has not.

 

To put this into perspective, I broke down this year’s top left tackle prospects in order to give you a better idea what linemen have NFL-worthy arm length and what prospects will struggle playing to their listed size. But first, I constructed a range of arm lengths for the OT position in order to put each measurement into context.

 

“Great” arm length (35-plus inches)

D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Jets: 35½ inches (2006)

Ryan Clady, Broncos: 36 inches (2008)

 

“Good” arm length (34-34 7/8 inches)

Jammal Brown, Saints: 34¼ inches (2005)

Jeff Otah, Panthers: 34 5/8 inches (2008)

 

“Average” arm length (33-33 7/8 inches)

Michael Roos, Titans: 33 5/8 inches (2005)

Levi Brown, Cardinals: 33 1/8 inches (2007)

 

“Below average” arm length (32-32 7/8 inches)

Robert Gallery, Raiders: 32¼ inches (2004)

Chris Williams, Bears: 32¾ inches (2008)

 

With an eye toward the 2009 NFL draft class, we can now rank the nation’s top offensive tackles according to their arm length/reach and break down what each measurement means.

 

Photo Smith’s reach makes up for his relative lack of height.

(John Reed/US Presswire)

 

Andre Smith, Alabama (6-4, 332), arm length: 35 5/8 inches

Although Smith is a bit short for the position by NFL standards, his length more than makes up for his height. Smith actually plays more like a tackle who is 6-8. He possesses great feet for his size, but he lacks the kind of explosion needed on his kick step to consistently reach the corner vs. speed rushers. However, it’s his length that will allow him to hold his own in pass protection and engage long-armed defensive ends on the outside and drive them off the ball.

 

William Beatty, Connecticut (6-6, 307), arm length: 34¾ inches

Beatty does a great job getting out of his stance quickly and extending his long arms in pass protection. He showcases impressive hand placement on the outside and is consistently able to engage quickly and keep defensive ends off his body. Beatty possesses the coordination, foot speed and length to man the left tackle spot in the NFL.

 

Eugene Monroe, Virginia (6-5, 309), arm length: 34 inches

Monroe displays good patience in pass protection and has the length to consistently keep linemen off his body. He does a great job extending his arms and plays even longer than his wingspan indicates. There’s no question in my mind that Monroe has the length and overall athleticism to become one of the top tackles in the NFL the next couple of years.

 

Jason Smith, Baylor (6-5, 309), arm length: 33¾ inches

Smith relies on his pure athletic ability and body coordination in pass protection, but he also has enough length to keep defenders off his frame. He will play a bit short-armed at times, but that’s more a result of his lacking technique and continued development as a left tackle. He’ll learn to use every bit of his 33¾-inch reach at the next level once he gets some NFL coaching.

 

Michael Oher, Mississippi (6-5, 309), arm length: 33½ inches

Oher is a big, athletically-gifted tackle who has all physical tools to make it in the NFL. He’s raw from a technique standpoint, and longer arms could help him make up for his consistent false steps and missed assignments. However, 33½ is right around the average length for an NFL starter and is more than enough for Oher to get by.

 

Eben Britton, Arizona (6-6, 309), arm length: 32½ inches

Britton’s lack of length is a concern for me, especially if teams are looking at him as a left tackle prospect. Britton is a polished pass protector who showcases good technique and does a great job extending his arms and getting every bit out of his 32½- inch reach. However, that length is a concern for a left tackle and could force Britton into a right tackle role on some NFL teams.

 

Overall, the measurement of a prospect’s arm length is just another tool to help scouts determine the caliber of player they’re evaluating. Arm length helps determine the “true” size of an NFL player and allows scouts to establish how big an offensive lineman can play.

 

As we said before, there are always exceptions to the rule, and simply measuring the arm length of an offensive tackle will not guarantee success. But when scouting offensive tackles, it’s paramount to consider length/reach in direct correlation to a player’s height and weight.

 

The National Football Post (www.nationalfootballpost.com) is a unique and premier online source of insight about all sides of football featuring professionals with experience in all facets of the NFL.

[AZ54]

The problem with RB is injury. Even if you get a stud, let's take a guy like Kevin Jones, they can quickly lose their edge. OT and Oline in general once good tend to stay that way for 8-10 years. Also, you can run your starting Oline for every offensive play of the game but RBs cant' handle that load in a 16 game season. If you are going to drop $30 mil on a guy which one gives you more value? I still say a good Oline will always have a good running game. A great RB might not have a good running game without a good Oline. Better pass protection makes and average QB and average WR better too. It's not that hard to find good WR talent but finding an elite QB is. Invest up front and behind the line you can fill in holes with good skill players (not elite) and still be successful.

[Mongo3451]

It's sort of an unrelated subject, but I was reading this article earlier on yahoo. It's obviously just talking about one aspect of an player, but it sort reinforces that I want the Bears to draft a LT prospect and let the chips lay where they may at the tackle spots. I'm not writing Chris Williams off because he has short arms, but considering his injury too, if we are going T in the first why not go LT and let them fight it out. This is more in reply to the post the other day about the one guy being a good RT prospect and not LT.

My mindset was to sign a top FA tackle and draft one in the 1st round just so the competition scenario could play out. Once again, we have penciled in an unproven 1st rounder into a starting position. Who will we place at LT if Williams fails? It has also been my contention that you can draft a player to play LT and move him to RT or an OG position if they fail. Sometimes that's not do-able due to the players skillset, but usually the LT prospect has a superior skillset to the other 4 positions on the OL which makes the gamble pay off through better odds.

 

The problem with RB is injury. Even if you get a stud, let's take a guy like Kevin Jones, they can quickly lose their edge. OT and Oline in general once good tend to stay that way for 8-10 years. Also, you can run your starting Oline for every offensive play of the game but RBs cant' handle that load in a 16 game season. If you are going to drop $30 mil on a guy which one gives you more value? I still say a good Oline will always have a good running game. A great RB might not have a good running game without a good Oline. Better pass protection makes and average QB and average WR better too. It's not that hard to find good WR talent but finding an elite QB is. Invest up front and behind the line you can fill in holes with good skill players (not elite) and still be successful.

Good points. Agreed 100%

[Mongo3451]

Agreed. While I am not going to do the homework, I would not be surprised to find that while 1st round RBs do well, you will find more later drafted RBs also doing well at a much higher percentage than at OT. So while both may have similar 1st round stats (a) RB is not a need for us in the 1st round and ( if RB is also a position that hits at a high rate later, it may be better to hold off and wait rather than go after that top RB.

 

I would further argue that if we do add a solid OL in the 1st, that too will increase the likelihood of our current RBs having a great career.

I get where you are going with this, as far as OL early, RB later.(agreed) But, challenge the argument that RB's have greater success past the 1st round than OT's. Like you, I'm not doing the homework.

[madlithuanian]

Ha! No arguement there! (I still tracked "fair" as a "bust" in my informal stats....)

 

I'd love to see that stats on that too! I think you're assumptions sound logical.

 

C'mon, stop being a Benson hater ( j k ). Benson IMO will elevate himself to the fair range (have a couple of 1000yd seasons) before his career is over, but he'll never achieve greatness b/c of were he was drafted.

 

Like you said, first rd RB's usually pan out at a good %,, but I would also like to see what % of 2nd RDers succeed, 3rd RD, etc. RB is probably the easiest to make a transistion to and a 2nd tier prospect's drop off from a 1st tier isn't as great IMO as say a OT or QB.

[madlithuanian]

I generally agree...

 

However, I think some mgmts may see getting a "top" RB as a better marketing move (ie. Reggie Bush). It's a lot flashier than OL... And avoids the "Mandrich" fear syndrome.

 

 

 

The problem with RB is injury. Even if you get a stud, let's take a guy like Kevin Jones, they can quickly lose their edge. OT and Oline in general once good tend to stay that way for 8-10 years. Also, you can run your starting Oline for every offensive play of the game but RBs cant' handle that load in a 16 game season. If you are going to drop $30 mil on a guy which one gives you more value? I still say a good Oline will always have a good running game. A great RB might not have a good running game without a good Oline. Better pass protection makes and average QB and average WR better too. It's not that hard to find good WR talent but finding an elite QB is. Invest up front and behind the line you can fill in holes with good skill players (not elite) and still be successful.

[nfoligno]

Couple thoughts on this.

 

One. I am not totally against the idea of a competition at LT, but I just question how well Williams fits at RT. Per all his scouting reports I read, he was considered more of a finesse OT than a powerful one. He was considered a better pass protecter than run blocker. His strength was very much questioned. Of all the LT prospects in the draft, he was viewed as the one w/ the least capability of moving to another position. He was built perfectly to play LT, but a very questionable fit/build to move to RT or inside. So that begs the question. While a competition at LT sounds great, if Williams loses the competition, what then? If he isn't a fit at RT, are you really helping the team?

 

Two. I believe the discussion you mention was about Britton, who has been a LT in college, but most feel is best suited to play RT in the pros. At the same time, it is not out of the question he could play LT. It isn't like he is a 340lb OT who has not chance to play LT. RT is simply seen as his best option. In fact, I would argue he has a better chance to fit at LT than Williams at RT. Anyway, I would start the year w/ Williams at LT and Britton at RT. If all goes well, we have our bookends for years to come. If however, Williams fails, I don't think Britton couldn't be looked at for the LT job. Not ideal, but still in the cards.

 

It's sort of an unrelated subject, but I was reading this article earlier on yahoo. It's obviously just talking about one aspect of an player, but it sort reinforces that I want the Bears to draft a LT prospect and let the chips lay where they may at the tackle spots. I'm not writing Chris Williams off because he has short arms, but considering his injury too, if we are going T in the first why not go LT and let them fight it out. This is more in reply to the post the other day about the one guy being a good RT prospect and not LT.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AkTY...o&type=lgns