Did we trade too much for Jay Cutler?

[Pixote]

In a response to an email on ChicagoBears.com Mayer came up with an interesting explanation as to why we got a good deal with the trade for Cutler.

 

1st, he says, and I can not disagree, that if Cutler were to be put into the draft in 2009 he would be the clear cut, by a landslide, #1 selection of the draft as he is a proven probowl quality NFL QB.

 

By using the dradt selection chart:

 

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm

 

the first round selection is worth 3000 points.

 

Our first round pick this year is valued at 900 points.

Our 3rd round selection is valued at 170 points.

That totals 1070 points.

 

Let's assume we really sucked ass this year if we did not make the move and wound up with pick #10 next year, it would be valued at 1300 points making the package 2370 points plus Orton. If this trade means we draft hopefully 32nd next year they get instead of 2370 a total of 900+170+590=1660

 

We save a ton of cap room, have a young promising QB who has yet to reach his prime as a QB, one who was tutored by Shanahan, an offensive genius.

 

Sounds like a hell-a-va deal.

[bowlingtwig]

In a response to an email on ChicagoBears.com Mayer came up with an interesting explanation as to why we got a good deal with the trade for Cutler.

 

1st, he says, and I can not disagree, that if Cutler were to be put into the draft in 2009 he would be the clear cut, by a landslide, #1 selection of the draft as he is a proven probowl quality NFL QB.

 

By using the dradt selection chart:

 

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm

 

the first round selection is worth 3000 points.

 

Our first round pick this year is valued at 900 points.

Our 3rd round selection is valued at 170 points.

That totals 1070 points.

 

Let's assume we really sucked ass this year if we did not make the move and wound up with pick #10 next year, it would be valued at 1300 points making the package 2370 points plus Orton. If this trade means we draft hopefully 32nd next year they get instead of 2370 a total of 900+170+590=1660

 

We save a ton of cap room, have a young promising QB who has yet to reach his prime as a QB, one who was tutored by Shanahan, an offensive genius.

 

Sounds like a hell-a-va deal.

Great post, can't argue facts lol

[dawhizz]

I also like hearing from players about how they feel. In a recent CNNSI column, the writer talked to Nnamdi Asomugha about the trade:

 

When I asked Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha on Thursday about Cutler, whom he calls a buddy, he told me: "He was arguably the top QB in the [AFC] West, so I'm not upset to see him leave. He should bring success to the Bears. [He's a] top eight QB."

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writ...tler/index.html

 

That's good to hear, in my book.

[Stinger226]

In a response to an email on ChicagoBears.com Mayer came up with an interesting explanation as to why we got a good deal with the trade for Cutler.

 

1st, he says, and I can not disagree, that if Cutler were to be put into the draft in 2009 he would be the clear cut, by a landslide, #1 selection of the draft as he is a proven probowl quality NFL QB.

 

By using the dradt selection chart:

 

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm

 

the first round selection is worth 3000 points.

 

Our first round pick this year is valued at 900 points.

Our 3rd round selection is valued at 170 points.

That totals 1070 points.

 

Let's assume we really sucked ass this year if we did not make the move and wound up with pick #10 next year, it would be valued at 1300 points making the package 2370 points plus Orton. If this trade means we draft hopefully 32nd next year they get instead of 2370 a total of 900+170+590=1660

 

We save a ton of cap room, have a young promising QB who has yet to reach his prime as a QB, one who was tutored by Shanahan, an offensive genius.

 

Sounds like a hell-a-va deal.

They did the math on the trade in PFW and it is the equivilant of the 6th pick this year. Of which he is cheaper for the next three years because of a front loaded contract, and already proved himself. Win, win.

[Chitownhustla]

I also like hearing from players about how they feel. In a recent CNNSI column, the writer talked to Nnamdi Asomugha about the trade:

 

When I asked Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha on Thursday about Cutler, whom he calls a buddy, he told me: "He was arguably the top QB in the [AFC] West, so I'm not upset to see him leave. He should bring success to the Bears. [He's a] top eight QB."

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writ...tler/index.html

 

That's good to hear, in my book.

 

I'm 31 years old and can say i have never seen the Bears have a great QB. The Bears have tried many times to get a good QB in here, Rick Mirer trade, Cade McNown and Rex Grossman to name a few. There is one common theme when looking at NFL team that win year in and year out, and that is having a good QB. Of the last 20 superbowl winners only 2 teams didn't have good QB's but both had great Defenses(Tampa and Ravens). If Jay performs like he did last year for the Bear for the nest 10 years this will go down as the best trade in the history of the NFL. Never has a QB been heading into his prime with as much potential as JAy Cutler has been traded this early on in his career. QB's like Cutler are traded when they might have 2 good years left in the tank. Cutler is 25 about to be 26.

 

If the Bears struggle next season i hope everyone understands that it's OK. This trade was done to help the Team for the next 10 years not just next season. We may have some holes in other area's and I'm sure JA will add the pieces when he has too to get everything right. Look we still have this years draft and JA has proven he can draft with the best of them in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. There still is FA's out there that might now come to Chicago because we took care of the QB situation. Plus you never know there could be some Vet WR's that get cut closer to season time to save money.

 

Either way i still can't believe JA got it done!!!!!!!!

[AZ54]

NFL Network put together a list of the top 10 QB trades. It seemed that half of those trades were of veterans at the end of the careers: Montana to KC for example. There were a few like Favre to GB, Young to San Fran that standout because the QB was still young however, they hadn't yet played at a high level and certainly didn't go to a Pro Bowl. IIRC there was Fran Tarkenton trade in the middle of his career that brought him back to the Vikings. Bottom line is that it is extremely rare for a QB with Cutler's talent to get traded.

 

Here's your link:

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80f94c35

[ChileBear]

We save a ton of cap room, have a young promising QB who has yet to reach his prime as a QB, one who was tutored by Shanahan, an offensive genius.

 

Sounds like a hell-a-va deal.

I agree. We get a proven player and do not take the risk that always goes with draft picks, from the first round especially. We now can use the money that would have been spent on a risk to get players that are proven and also to reward players that we have that we want to keep. It was a win-win deal.

[BearFan PHX]

Pix,

 

What a great post!

 

There are a few more points one can make from the chart too.

 

First off, you put a value of 3,000 points on Cutler, as a first over all pick. I would argue that a proven Pro Bowl QB is worth more than ANY ONE pick in the draft. Further, since we don't have to pay him his signing bonus, he is worth even more. So for you to put a value on him of ONLY 3,000 points is WAY low. Good! If we show that we got a great deal even if he was only worth that 3,000 - then we got an even better deal if he was worth more, which he MUST be.

 

We gave:

 

This years #1, pick 18, which is worth 900 points.

We also gave a 3rd rounder, pick 84 (I think) which was worth 170 points.

We gave next year's #1 too. They always devalue next year's picks, so to say it might be worth the 10th pick at 1300 points is WAY overkill. Again, let's use your number, but certainly, the deal was significantly sweeter for us. Had you guessed the 20th pick instead for example, you'd only be talking about 850 points. And that's without the devaluation for it being next year's draft.

 

We also go their 5th rounder, I don't know which one it is, but the worst one is 28 points. Again, using numbers that make the deal look worse than it really is, I'll go with 28.

 

So we end up with Orton + 900 + 170 + 1300 and then subtract 28 points for the 5th rounder.

 

By that math, we paid Orton + 2342

 

If you assume that Cutler was worth 3000 points, then Orton was worth 658 points, or the 29th pick in the draft. In other words, ANGELO GOT A FIRST ROUND PICK FOR ORTON.

 

Think of it this way:

 

1) Angelo trades Orton for a low FIRST round pick: #29. He's a genius GM just for that, right?

 

2) Angelo then packages four of our picks: The 29th he just got for Orton (640), our 18th (900), our 3rd rounder (170) and next year's first rounder (realistically anywhere from 1300 points down to 600 THEN, and even LESS now because it's a year away) for the first pick overall (3000) and a 5th rounder.

 

If we DO make our next year's pick worth all 1300 points, then this was an even trade on points. Whatever you think it could be discounted from there is either value that Angelo took from the table (we didn't have to pay) OR means that he got even more for Orton - either way, another brilliant GM moment.

 

3) Angelo then turns around and picks Jay Cutler, a Pro Bowl QB with 3 years of experience with the first pick. We all know first round picks are risky. Hitting it right is SO important - another great GM move by Angelo.

 

4) Finally, Angelo finds a loophole that allows him to sign this first round draft pick without his Singing Bonus counting against our cap! He manages to sign the first pick overall with no signing bonus at ALL. This means you can cut him any time with no cap hit, and it means he is VERY cheap under our cap. This is GM move of epic proportions.

 

Also, all of this assumes that Cutler is worth only 3,000 points., Anything more is ALSO value Angelo didn't have to pay.

 

Guys. This was a MASTERFUL move. Anyone who says we overpaid is not understanding that Denver got robbed because they screwed up, and we swooped in to pick up the pieces.

 

Pix - thanks for coming up with the idea to analyze this by draft value! I thought it was interesting to then figure Orton's worth. Wow. Angelo got a First rounder for him.

 

And in the real world, where our next years first isn't worth anywhere near 1300 points (I thinks its worth about 500) and Orton is only worth about 400 points at BEST (high 2nd round), and No-Signing-Bonus-Cutler is worth easily more than 4500 points, Angleo got Cutler for at LEAST 2500 points less than he's worth. THAT is like creating the 2nd pick overall in the draft out of thin air, and then using it to select Cutler. WOW.

[Chitownhustla]

Pix,

 

What a great post!

 

There are a few more points one can make from the chart too.

 

First off, you put a value of 3,000 points on Cutler, as a first over all pick. I would argue that a proven Pro Bowl QB is worth more than ANY ONE pick in the draft. Further, since we don't have to pay him his signing bonus, he is worth even more. So for you to put a value on him of ONLY 3,000 points is WAY low. Good! If we show that we got a great deal even if he was only worth that 3,000 - then we got an even better deal if he was worth more, which he MUST be.

 

We gave:

 

This years #1, pick 18, which is worth 900 points.

We also gave a 3rd rounder, pick 84 (I think) which was worth 170 points.

We gave next year's #1 too. They always devalue next year's picks, so to say it might be worth the 10th pick at 1300 points is WAY overkill. Again, let's use your number, but certainly, the deal was significantly sweeter for us. Had you guessed the 20th pick instead for example, you'd only be talking about 850 points. And that's without the devaluation for it being next year's draft.

 

We also go their 5th rounder, I don't know which one it is, but the worst one is 28 points. Again, using numbers that make the deal look worse than it really is, I'll go with 28.

 

So we end up with Orton + 900 + 170 + 1300 and then subtract 28 points for the 5th rounder.

 

By that math, we paid Orton + 2342

 

If you assume that Cutler was worth 3000 points, then Orton was worth 658 points, or the 29th pick in the draft. In other words, ANGELO GOT A FIRST ROUND PICK FOR ORTON.

 

Think of it this way:

 

1) Angelo trades Orton for a low FIRST round pick: #29. He's a genius GM just for that, right?

 

2) Angelo then packages four of our picks: The 29th he just got for Orton (640), our 18th (900), our 3rd rounder (170) and next year's first rounder (realistically anywhere from 1300 points down to 600 THEN, and even LESS now because it's a year away) for the first pick overall (3000) and a 5th rounder.

 

If we DO make our next year's pick worth all 1300 points, then this was an even trade on points. Whatever you think it could be discounted from there is either value that Angelo took from the table (we didn't have to pay) OR means that he got even more for Orton - either way, another brilliant GM moment.

 

3) Angelo then turns around and picks Jay Cutler, a Pro Bowl QB with 3 years of experience with the first pick. We all know first round picks are risky. Hitting it right is SO important - another great GM move by Angelo.

 

4) Finally, Angelo finds a loophole that allows him to sign this first round draft pick without his Singing Bonus counting against our cap! He manages to sign the first pick overall with no signing bonus at ALL. This means you can cut him any time with no cap hit, and it means he is VERY cheap under our cap. This is GM move of epic proportions.

 

Also, all of this assumes that Cutler is worth only 3,000 points., Anything more is ALSO value Angelo didn't have to pay.

 

Guys. This was a MASTERFUL move. Anyone who says we overpaid is not understanding that Denver got robbed because they screwed up, and we swooped in to pick up the pieces.

 

Pix - thanks for coming up with the idea to analyze this by draft value! I thought it was interesting to then figure Orton's worth. Wow. Angelo got a First rounder for him.

 

And in the real world, where our next years first isn't worth anywhere near 1300 points (I thinks its worth about 500) and Orton is only worth about 400 points at BEST (high 2nd round), and No-Signing-Bonus-Cutler is worth easily more than 4500 points, Angleo got Cutler for at LEAST 2500 points less than he's worth. THAT is like creating the 2nd pick overall in the draft out of thin air, and then using it to select Cutler. WOW.

 

 

Why not look at Orton as the 4th rounder we drafted him as. Makes the trade look that much better

[Mongo3451]

Pix,

 

What a great post!

 

There are a few more points one can make from the chart too.

 

First off, you put a value of 3,000 points on Cutler, as a first over all pick. I would argue that a proven Pro Bowl QB is worth more than ANY ONE pick in the draft. Further, since we don't have to pay him his signing bonus, he is worth even more. So for you to put a value on him of ONLY 3,000 points is WAY low. Good! If we show that we got a great deal even if he was only worth that 3,000 - then we got an even better deal if he was worth more, which he MUST be.

 

We gave:

 

This years #1, pick 18, which is worth 900 points.

We also gave a 3rd rounder, pick 84 (I think) which was worth 170 points.

We gave next year's #1 too. They always devalue next year's picks, so to say it might be worth the 10th pick at 1300 points is WAY overkill. Again, let's use your number, but certainly, the deal was significantly sweeter for us. Had you guessed the 20th pick instead for example, you'd only be talking about 850 points. And that's without the devaluation for it being next year's draft.

 

We also go their 5th rounder, I don't know which one it is, but the worst one is 28 points. Again, using numbers that make the deal look worse than it really is, I'll go with 28.

 

So we end up with Orton + 900 + 170 + 1300 and then subtract 28 points for the 5th rounder.

 

By that math, we paid Orton + 2342

 

If you assume that Cutler was worth 3000 points, then Orton was worth 658 points, or the 29th pick in the draft. In other words, ANGELO GOT A FIRST ROUND PICK FOR ORTON.

 

Think of it this way:

 

1) Angelo trades Orton for a low FIRST round pick: #29. He's a genius GM just for that, right?

 

2) Angelo then packages four of our picks: The 29th he just got for Orton (640), our 18th (900), our 3rd rounder (170) and next year's first rounder (realistically anywhere from 1300 points down to 600 THEN, and even LESS now because it's a year away) for the first pick overall (3000) and a 5th rounder.

 

If we DO make our next year's pick worth all 1300 points, then this was an even trade on points. Whatever you think it could be discounted from there is either value that Angelo took from the table (we didn't have to pay) OR means that he got even more for Orton - either way, another brilliant GM moment.

 

3) Angelo then turns around and picks Jay Cutler, a Pro Bowl QB with 3 years of experience with the first pick. We all know first round picks are risky. Hitting it right is SO important - another great GM move by Angelo.

 

4) Finally, Angelo finds a loophole that allows him to sign this first round draft pick without his Singing Bonus counting against our cap! He manages to sign the first pick overall with no signing bonus at ALL. This means you can cut him any time with no cap hit, and it means he is VERY cheap under our cap. This is GM move of epic proportions.

 

Also, all of this assumes that Cutler is worth only 3,000 points., Anything more is ALSO value Angelo didn't have to pay.

 

Guys. This was a MASTERFUL move. Anyone who says we overpaid is not understanding that Denver got robbed because they screwed up, and we swooped in to pick up the pieces.

 

Pix - thanks for coming up with the idea to analyze this by draft value! I thought it was interesting to then figure Orton's worth. Wow. Angelo got a First rounder for him.

 

And in the real world, where our next years first isn't worth anywhere near 1300 points (I thinks its worth about 500) and Orton is only worth about 400 points at BEST (high 2nd round), and No-Signing-Bonus-Cutler is worth easily more than 4500 points, Angleo got Cutler for at LEAST 2500 points less than he's worth. THAT is like creating the 2nd pick overall in the draft out of thin air, and then using it to select Cutler. WOW.

I agree with the trade, but in no means think we stole anyone. The price was high and we paid.

[azbearsfan]

Why not look at Orton as the 4th rounder we drafted him as. Makes the trade look that much better

 

 

Cause then you have to look at Cutler at where he was drafted.

 

 

I think looking at the quarterbacks talent level today is a good way of doing it.

[DrunkBomber]

I dont need the point chart to know what kind of trade this was. Now, I know he hasnt even played a down as a Bear yet but this trade is unprecedented for the Chicago Bears. You can look at some of the recent drafts and we have drafted a lot of good players and a lot of bad players. There has always been a stigma in Chicago about a quarterbacks. Its also one of the first times Bear nation has unanimously agreed an an acquisition. It seems like one of the first times management has went against the mold to improve the team.

[Chitownhustla]

Cause then you have to look at Cutler at where he was drafted.

 

 

I think looking at the quarterbacks talent level today is a good way of doing it.

 

 

Ok so Cutler was drafted 11th, now that he has proven to be a pro bowl qb his value is higher. Orton on the other has won some games in the NFL has he proven to be a pro bowlqb or even a game changer. No to the pro bowl and IMO i dont think he is a game changer, so his 4th round draft sticks. Maybe you say 3rd round. Part of me would like to see what Cutler does with the same WR's as last year.

[BearFan PHX]

I was just trying to say that I thought Cutler was worth a lot more than 3,000 points, but that even if he was worth only 3,000 that still made Orton worth a first rounder in this. That made me realize what a steal this was.

[bradjock]

Good points about the draft value. Although that system is totally screwed up right now, at least with the top 10.

 

My view is this: How many more picks would the Bears have had to spend to find a franchise QB? Here's what we've spent the last 10 drafts: (I apologize if someone else has pointed this out, but I haven't seen it.)

1999: Cade McNown--12th overall

2003: Rex Grossman--22nd overall

2004: Craig Krenzel--5th Round, 148th overall

2005: Kyle Orton-4th Round, 106th overall

 

For all that, Orton was the only one we had left, and we weren't very confident with him.

 

In other words, chances are that over the next 10 years, we'd have given up an assload of picks trying to find the next Jay Cutler.

 

Of course ultimately time will tell. If he's our QB for the next 10 years, it was a damn good call.

[BearFan PHX]

Good points about the draft value. Although that system is totally screwed up right now, at least with the top 10.

 

My view is this: How many more picks would the Bears have had to spend to find a franchise QB? Here's what we've spent the last 10 drafts: (I apologize if someone else has pointed this out, but I haven't seen it.)

1999: Cade McNown--12th overall

2003: Rex Grossman--22nd overall

2004: Craig Krenzel--5th Round, 148th overall

2005: Kyle Orton-4th Round, 106th overall

 

For all that, Orton was the only one we had left, and we weren't very confident with him.

 

In other words, chances are that over the next 10 years, we'd have given up an assload of picks trying to find the next Jay Cutler.

 

Of course ultimately time will tell. If he's our QB for the next 10 years, it was a damn good call.

 

Exactly. I the math shows anything, it's that Cutler was worth a LOT, and picks are not players. It could take many picks to find a player, when you're talking about finding franchise QBs.

 

But I also think it shows that Denver lost something, and got what they could to get out of it: Picks to get a QB to develop, and someone to take the reigns while you find that guy - lemme ask you: wouldn't YOU just rather have Cutler? Especailly if his signing bonus is free? I think the Bears won big here.

[Chitownhustla]

I was just trying to say that I thought Cutler was worth a lot more than 3,000 points, but that even if he was worth only 3,000 that still made Orton worth a first rounder in this. That made me realize what a steal this was.

 

 

I totally hear ya. I think Cutler is worth way more then a 3000 points, after the year he had last year. I hope he does that year in and year out for the Bears.

[Pixote]

Ok, we have Cutler. Let's say he played for us the past few seasons and went to the pro bowl last year. If another team offered us a deal identical to what we gave Denver, would you make the trade?

[BigDaddy]

Everybody won. That is, assuming Cutler continues where he left off and even improves. We got our franchise QB, Denver got some much needed draft picks with which to rebuild their football team, Cutler got out of a situation that he found simply unacceptable and did not trust the HC so all in all, everybody won. I was NOT a big proponent of giving up that much for Cutler but let's face it, if we hadn't nabbed him, Detroit or Minnesota would have. Angelo made the move as much for self preservation as he did to give this team a much needed boost. And NOBODY is going to blame him if Cutler does not perform either. No, that will be on lovie and Turner. It will be their heads that roll if Cutler lays an egg. So who knows, maybe we win again by Lovie and Turner getting launched. Right now, I'll enjoy the prospect of having a franchise QB and live in the comfort that no matter what, at a minimum, he is better than what we had. That in and of itself might be enough to get us to postseason.

[SoxFan1]

Ok, we have Cutler. Let's say he played for us the past few seasons and went to the pro bowl last year. If another team offered us a deal identical to what we gave Denver, would you make the trade?

Probably not, but it'd depend on the QB coming back our way in place of what we gave in Orton.

[Chitownhustla]

Ok, we have Cutler. Let's say he played for us the past few seasons and went to the pro bowl last year. If another team offered us a deal identical to what we gave Denver, would you make the trade?

 

 

Never.....if I were a Bronco's fans i would be so pissed right now it isnt even funny. I actually feel bad for them. As i know what it is like to watch the team you love play every year with a crap QB.

[BigDaddy]

I just became a Denver Bronco fan. I hope Orton tears it up over there. I'd love to see him succeed.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Another thing you have to look at is that Orton was in his FA year. The Bears were either going to have to resign him b/c they don't have anybody else ready (maybe Haine) or find another stop gap if they lost Orton. Orton was never going to be a QB that can win games alone, he could keep us from losing, but he has never had the talent to take over a game. His limititations as a pro were the same limitations as a college QB. He's a great #2 - stop gap #1 IMO.

 

So, that left the Bears in a decision on how to handle the QB position. Do they resign Orton half way through the season, knowing his limitiations and knowing this will hold the Bears back in finding a top tier QB or make an effort at a chance that is never-ever available.

 

The decision made was the right one, Lets look at this way:

RD1-18 - Cutler - we get a franchise QB which none of us would complain about - we lost out on Nicks/Britton

RD1-? 2010 - This would've had to go for QB if Orton didn't get job done again and we let him walk or sign a lowball deal. So draft day 1 sucks for Bears fans, but you know espn will talk about this both years.

RD3-84 for there RD5-140 (4th pick 5th RD)- we swap these picks and move down 56 slots, since we have another 3rd RD pick, the blow hurts less.

------------------------------------

Now we have a direction to build upon. Cutler/Forte/Olsen/Hester. All tied up until 2012 and we haven't seen Bennett who I think will emerge kind of like Royal did. We still have about 20 million in cap space to maybe add another WR which I would prefer a tall WR in the mold of (turds) Plaxico Burress, Reggie Williams, or Matt Jones that can get up and catch those jump balls.

[bradjock]

I just became a Denver Bronco fan. I hope Orton tears it up over there. I'd love to see him succeed.

 

Agreed completely Big Daddy. With the exception of some embarrassing photos that seemed to have taken place almost immediately after we signed Brian Griese, Orton did nothing but bust his ass for this franchise. The guy has a nack for winning. How many times did he lead us back in the 4th quarter last year? I hate to see him go, but he's no Jay Cutler.

[balta1701-A]

Ok, we have Cutler. Let's say he played for us the past few seasons and went to the pro bowl last year. If another team offered us a deal identical to what we gave Denver, would you make the trade?

Unless he was holding out or I had another guy in 2nd (a-la Rivers/Brees), not a chance.