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4-14-09 Mock


Ed Hochuli 3:16

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2. Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State

---Either him, Nicks, or Britt will fall to us. I'll guess it's Robo.

3. Darcel McBath, FS, Texas Tech

---Smart player and a leader. We were at TT's pro day (along with the other 31 teams).

4. Henry Melton, DE, Texas

---6'3 260. Not a bad starting point for Marinelli.

5. Tony Fiammetta, FB, Syracuse

---Best FB in the draft and a definite upgrade over McKie

5. Louis Vazquez, OG, Texas Tech

---Strong OG who can compete for a starting job right away. Also, see 3rd round pick.

6. Mike Teel, QB, Rutgers

---I don't like going into the year with Hanie as our 2nd string. I haven't heard anything about veteran QB's coming here, either.

7. Bruce Johnson, CB, Miami

---CB depth.

7. John Gill, DT, Northwestern

---DT depth.

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2. Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State

---Either him, Nicks, or Britt will fall to us. I'll guess it's Robo.

3. Darcel McBath, FS, Texas Tech

---Smart player and a leader. We were at TT's pro day (along with the other 31 teams).

4. Henry Melton, DE, Texas

---6'3 260. Not a bad starting point for Marinelli.

5. Tony Fiammetta, FB, Syracuse

---Best FB in the draft and a definite upgrade over McKie

5. Louis Vazquez, OG, Texas Tech

---Strong OG who can compete for a starting job right away. Also, see 3rd round pick.

6. Mike Teel, QB, Rutgers

---I don't like going into the year with Hanie as our 2nd string. I haven't heard anything about veteran QB's coming here, either.

7. Bruce Johnson, CB, Miami

---CB depth.

7. John Gill, DT, Northwestern

---DT depth.

I think your right on with one of the 3 WRs dropping to that point, I think Robiskie will be the first of those three off the board. Instead of McBath, insert Clemons/FS/Clemson. Brad Briggs gave a heads up of a great interest that the Bears have. Also I see us drafting a OLB with the 4th or one of the 5th round picks. I think they want to upgrade S LB position.

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I would be very, very happy if our draft shook out this way. Robiskie, McBath, and Fiammetta could all compete for starting spots, and Melton, Gill, and Vazquez could rotate in some as rookies. I agree with Stinger that we could use an upgrade at SAM 'backer at some point in the draft, but it's not a huge need.

 

The only pick I have any problem with is Mike Teel. Teel's probably the reason that Kenny Britt could slip to the 2nd round: he makes a lot of poor decisions and throws way too many picks (59:49 TD:Int ratio.) He's been starting for four seasons, and this is the first time he's completed more than 60% of his passes.

 

If we're going to spend a late-round pick on a QB from a less well-known program, I'd rather have Mike Reilly from Central Washington. Reilly's arm strength is pretty comparable to Teel's (neither one has a big-time arm,) but his production has been much better. Reilly's stats:

 

2008: 270/414 (65.2%) for 3706 yards 37 TDs, 7 INTs

2007: 271/435 (62.3%) for 3386 yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs

2006: 231/351 (65.8%) for 2660 yards, 21 TDs, 13 INTs

2005: 223/353 (63.2%) for 2696 yards, 30 TDs, 11 INTs

 

Here are Teel's numbers, for comparison:

 

2008: 243/396 (61.4%) for 3418 yards, 25 TDs, 13 INTs

2007: 203/349 (58.2%) for 3162 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs

2006: 164/296 (55.4%) for 2135 yards, 12 TDs, 13 INTs

2005: 51/101 (50.5%) for 683 yards, 2 TDs, 10 INTs

 

To be fair, Reilly's passing yards are slightly inflated from playing in a spread offense: the stats that I'm interested in (the ones that reflect on the player, regardless of scheme) are completion percentage and TD:INT ratio. Both of them improved each year, but Reilly's worst season completion percentage is better than Teel's best, and Reilly's worst TD:INT ratio is better than all but one of Teel's.

 

Remember, also, that Reilly didn't have a 1st-2nd round receiver like Kenny Britt to throw to, Ray Rice running the ball, or Jeremy Zuttah and Pedro Sosa blocking for him. Even with a much worse supporting cast, he still outperformed Teel.

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I would be very, very happy if our draft shook out this way. Robiskie, McBath, and Fiammetta could all compete for starting spots, and Melton, Gill, and Vazquez could rotate in some as rookies. I agree with Stinger that we could use an upgrade at SAM 'backer at some point in the draft, but it's not a huge need.

 

The only pick I have any problem with is Mike Teel. Teel's probably the reason that Kenny Britt could slip to the 2nd round: he makes a lot of poor decisions and throws way too many picks (59:49 TD:Int ratio.) He's been starting for four seasons, and this is the first time he's completed more than 60% of his passes.

 

If we're going to spend a late-round pick on a QB from a less well-known program, I'd rather have Mike Reilly from Central Washington. Reilly's arm strength is pretty comparable to Teel's (neither one has a big-time arm,) but his production has been much better. Reilly's stats:

 

2008: 270/414 (65.2%) for 3706 yards 37 TDs, 7 INTs

2007: 271/435 (62.3%) for 3386 yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs

2006: 231/351 (65.8%) for 2660 yards, 21 TDs, 13 INTs

2005: 223/353 (63.2%) for 2696 yards, 30 TDs, 11 INTs

 

Here are Teel's numbers, for comparison:

 

2008: 243/396 (61.4%) for 3418 yards, 25 TDs, 13 INTs

2007: 203/349 (58.2%) for 3162 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs

2006: 164/296 (55.4%) for 2135 yards, 12 TDs, 13 INTs

2005: 51/101 (50.5%) for 683 yards, 2 TDs, 10 INTs

 

To be fair, Reilly's passing yards are slightly inflated from playing in a spread offense: the stats that I'm interested in (the ones that reflect on the player, regardless of scheme) are completion percentage and TD:INT ratio. Both of them improved each year, but Reilly's worst season completion percentage is better than Teel's best, and Reilly's worst TD:INT ratio is better than all but one of Teel's.

 

Remember, also, that Reilly didn't have a 1st-2nd round receiver like Kenny Britt to throw to, Ray Rice running the ball, or Jeremy Zuttah and Pedro Sosa blocking for him. Even with a much worse supporting cast, he still outperformed Teel.

 

I would also throw out Nate Davis' name here. His stock is falling like a rock, but I think he's worth a shot late in the draft despite the int/learning disability fears.

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I would also throw out Nate Davis' name here. His stock is falling like a rock, but I think he's worth a shot late in the draft despite the int/learning disability fears.

 

Davis is more of a project, but he has one thing that neither of the Mikes have got: a huge arm. He can legitimately get the ball 65-70 yards through the air. We'd probably have to use an earlier pick on Davis, but he's a better prospect at this stage than Reilly or Teel.

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