Such an unusual receiving situation

[nfoligno]

This year, our passing game outlook is simply so different, it is hard to grasp. We have a franchise, top 5 potential QB. We have an upgraded OL which may not be great, but looks pretty good. While we do not have "elite" WR talent (proven) we have considerable potential and quantity, more than I believe I can recall in some time.

 

I have been playing w/ the numbers, and just have a hard time rationing out the stats.

 

IMHO, looking at Cutler, I think 4,000 yards on 340 completions is not out of the question. I know the yardage total is lower than last year, but we are not going to be as pass happy as Denver. The 340 catches is actually more than he had last year, but I think he could see more short/intermediate passes in our system. Both stats would put him in or near the top 5, but not w/ ridiculous expectations. Frankly, the numbers could actually be lower, but the point is, how are those numbers spread out?

 

Hester had 51-665 last year in a crap offense. I think he could easily see 60 catches this year, and w/ the improved deep ball, his ypc could jump too. Say 65-1000 (just over 15 ypc avg) Those are conservative numbers IMHO.

 

Olsen 54-574 (10.6 ypc avg) last year. Many think this could be his year to emerge. But again, staying conservative, say 65 catches, but w/ a higher ypc avg as he can work downfield more, his numbers could improve to about 65-850 (just over 13 ypc)

 

Forte had 63 catches last year. While I think his catches drop due to more receiving options, it is hard to see them falling off all-together. Say he has 55 catches, and around 8 ypc, for 450 yards.

 

Clark had 41-367 (9 ypc) last year. While he may not be as involved, he will still get opportunities, and makes the most of his opportunities. And as well as we did w/ the 2 TE sets, I just have a hard time seeing Clark dropping from the plans, especially as he is our most experienced receiver. Say 40-400.

 

Now it gets interesting, as I think we have several young receiving options w/ considerable potential.

 

Bennett is Cutler's boy, and visa versa. More than any on the roster, Bennett will enter camp w/ some chemistry w/ Cutler. He was held back last year by our staff's insistence he learn every WR position and route, but expectations are considerable for him this year. I think he very much has 50 catch potential. Lets give him moderate ypc totals, and put him at 50-550.

 

Iglesias is one of my favorites, and simply a player I can not see failing to make an impact as a rookie. His ability to get get off the LOS, seperate from the DB and catch the ball are just too great. Again, I see a 50 catch potential WR, though his ypc will not be great. Lets give him 50-550.

 

Knox is a player who I do not think makes a consistent impact, but I think does get some deep balls. Think Devery Henderson. Total catches isn't high, but w/ sick ypc averages, his yardage totals surprise. 25 catches for 500 yards.

 

But here is the problem. Add those up and you get 350-4300. Um, that is assuming we don't ever throw to McKie (and you know Turner will), Davis, Kevin Jones or our new 3rd TE/FB. And, as I said, IMHO, I am using some conservative numbers as i think many here, when looking at players individually, are thinking several of these guys (Hester, Olsen, Bennett) end up w/ stats greater than what I listed.

 

I just do not recall a time when I struggled to figure out how we are going to spread the ball around. Damn its nice to have a legit QB.

[madlithuanian]

Nice analysis...

 

I just keep thinking, could this be a blessing in disguise?

 

We have no real #1...which means our opponents' can choose to target any random guy with their top coverage or double team. My guess is probably Hester. That leaves 3 other guys on your average passing play to get open. Olsen with a mis-match. Maybe Bennett with a nice route. Or maybe Iglesias with good hands. Also, possibly Forte out there too. That's a lot of good solid targets for Cutler. Nothing great per se (other than Olsen possibly). But is a situation better when you have a solid group or when you have one wonderchild and a lot of crud?

 

It certainly puts a lot more on Cutler's choulders. But he strikes me as a guy that would rise to that challenge.

 

We could very well have the most passing yards in the league...but with receptions spread amoung 6-7 guys. (With a little luck that Turner allows for it...)

 

I think we're pretty much on the same page...

 

This year, our passing game outlook is simply so different, it is hard to grasp. We have a franchise, top 5 potential QB. We have an upgraded OL which may not be great, but looks pretty good. While we do not have "elite" WR talent (proven) we have considerable potential and quantity, more than I believe I can recall in some time.

 

I have been playing w/ the numbers, and just have a hard time rationing out the stats.

 

IMHO, looking at Cutler, I think 4,000 yards on 340 completions is not out of the question. I know the yardage total is lower than last year, but we are not going to be as pass happy as Denver. The 340 catches is actually more than he had last year, but I think he could see more short/intermediate passes in our system. Both stats would put him in or near the top 5, but not w/ ridiculous expectations. Frankly, the numbers could actually be lower, but the point is, how are those numbers spread out?

 

Hester had 51-665 last year in a crap offense. I think he could easily see 60 catches this year, and w/ the improved deep ball, his ypc could jump too. Say 65-1000 (just over 15 ypc avg) Those are conservative numbers IMHO.

 

Olsen 54-574 (10.6 ypc avg) last year. Many think this could be his year to emerge. But again, staying conservative, say 65 catches, but w/ a higher ypc avg as he can work downfield more, his numbers could improve to about 65-850 (just over 13 ypc)

 

Forte had 63 catches last year. While I think his catches drop due to more receiving options, it is hard to see them falling off all-together. Say he has 55 catches, and around 8 ypc, for 450 yards.

 

Clark had 41-367 (9 ypc) last year. While he may not be as involved, he will still get opportunities, and makes the most of his opportunities. And as well as we did w/ the 2 TE sets, I just have a hard time seeing Clark dropping from the plans, especially as he is our most experienced receiver. Say 40-400.

 

Now it gets interesting, as I think we have several young receiving options w/ considerable potential.

 

Bennett is Cutler's boy, and visa versa. More than any on the roster, Bennett will enter camp w/ some chemistry w/ Cutler. He was held back last year by our staff's insistence he learn every WR position and route, but expectations are considerable for him this year. I think he very much has 50 catch potential. Lets give him moderate ypc totals, and put him at 50-550.

 

Iglesias is one of my favorites, and simply a player I can not see failing to make an impact as a rookie. His ability to get get off the LOS, seperate from the DB and catch the ball are just too great. Again, I see a 50 catch potential WR, though his ypc will not be great. Lets give him 50-550.

 

Knox is a player who I do not think makes a consistent impact, but I think does get some deep balls. Think Devery Henderson. Total catches isn't high, but w/ sick ypc averages, his yardage totals surprise. 25 catches for 500 yards.

 

But here is the problem. Add those up and you get 350-4300. Um, that is assuming we don't ever throw to McKie (and you know Turner will), Davis, Kevin Jones or our new 3rd TE/FB. And, as I said, IMHO, I am using some conservative numbers as i think many here, when looking at players individually, are thinking several of these guys (Hester, Olsen, Bennett) end up w/ stats greater than what I listed.

 

I just do not recall a time when I struggled to figure out how we are going to spread the ball around. Damn its nice to have a legit QB.

[Mongo3451]

Fun topic. Here's how I see it going.

 

Hester 80-1200

Bennett 45-550

Olsen 70-750

Iglesias 20-?

Davis 25-?

Forte 45-?

Knox 5-?

Clark 30-?

McKie 10-?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I hope your right about Hester.

[Wesson44]

Nice analysis...

 

I just keep thinking, could this be a blessing in disguise?

 

We have no real #1...which means our opponents' can choose to target any random guy with their top coverage or double team. My guess is probably Hester. That leaves 3 other guys on your average passing play to get open. Olsen with a mis-match. Maybe Bennett with a nice route. Or maybe Iglesias with good hands. Also, possibly Forte out there too. That's a lot of good solid targets for Cutler. Nothing great per se (other than Olsen possibly). But is a situation better when you have a solid group or when you have one wonderchild and a lot of crud?

 

It certainly puts a lot more on Cutler's choulders. But he strikes me as a guy that would rise to that challenge.

 

We could very well have the most passing yards in the league...but with receptions spread amoung 6-7 guys. (With a little luck that Turner allows for it...)

 

I think we're pretty much on the same page...

IMHO those numbers would be nice for our passing game but you forgot one thing. We are a running team and "get off the bus runing,

" so there is no way Hester has 65 catches

[madlithuanian]

When I see it, I'll believe it! Although I loved Forte's effort last year. I just don't want to wear the kid down. We have an arm now, let's use it...

 

We are a running team and "get off the bus runing,

"

[AZ54]

I dno't see that much for Knox, I agree he might see 25 receptions but not for 500 yards. If he can get on the field I'd say 300-350 yards is more likely. This kid is seeing such a huge step up in competition and complexity of plays and coverages that I think it's going to take him at least a year to adjust. However, I can easily see Garrett Wolfe getting those 25 rec with a 10 yd/rec average. You are only talking about 1.5 rec/gm.

[Stinger226]

Fun topic. Here's how I see it going.

 

Hester 80-1200

Bennett 45-550

Olsen 70-750

Iglesias 20-?

Davis 25-?

Forte 45-?

Knox 5-?

Clark 30-?

McKie 10-?

There is no way Hester has 80 balls threw to him. We will throw to our TEs, RB, and Bennett will be the leading receiver. Here is how I see it.

Bennett 72-around 800 yards and 4 TDs

Hester 61- around 900 yards and 8 TDs

Olsen 59- around 700 yards and 6 TDs

Forte 46 - around 500 yards and 4 TDs

Clark 41- around 400 yards and 2 TDs

Iglesias 32- around 400 yards and 2 TDs

Knox 12- around 200 yards and 2 TDs

 

Cutler will throw for around 3900 yards and 28 TDs

[nfoligno]

One, while we always say we are a running team, I am not sure the stats necessarily support that. Last year, we passed nearly 100 more times than we ran it. The year before? Nearly 150 more times. Year before that? Closer, but edge still goes to the QB.

 

Two, even if you say we are still a running team, does that mean we can't have the receptions? Last year, we passed it 527 times. If you put a good completion % w/ that, and a decent ypp average, I think you will find 340 or so completions is still very realistic. Further, I think most here believe our offense will be better. If that is the case, that means more 1st downs, and thus more total downs. Sure, that means more runs, but it also means more passes.

 

Three, the point was not necessarily to predict who will have what, but to point out the potential. Even looking at it from a conservative angle, I think the potential is considerable.

 

I said myself there is no way all those WRs get the catch totals I threw out there. That would likely mean Cutler would have 400+ completions and be the top QB in the league. The point is more about how drastically better our situation "looks" right now.

 

IMHO those numbers would be nice for our passing game but you forgot one thing. We are a running team and "get off the bus runing,

" so there is no way Hester has 65 catches

[nfoligno]

Hey, from the day of the draft, I said Knox could be something, but he is going to take time. Hence the low catch totals as a rookie. At the same time, I simply see him value as a deep threat. I do not think he will provide consistency in the near future, but what he can do is take off on go routes, which will lead to a very high YPC avg. Take a look at Devery Henderson. It took him a few years to reach any semblance of NFL tier, but starting in his rookie year, he showed he could use his speed to get open deep.

 

Maybe he doesn't have 500 yards, but I do think he will have 15-25 catches, but w/ a high ypc avg making his receiving yards higher than most would expect.

 

I dno't see that much for Knox, I agree he might see 25 receptions but not for 500 yards. If he can get on the field I'd say 300-350 yards is more likely. This kid is seeing such a huge step up in competition and complexity of plays and coverages that I think it's going to take him at least a year to adjust. However, I can easily see Garrett Wolfe getting those 25 rec with a 10 yd/rec average. You are only talking about 1.5 rec/gm.

[adam]

Hester 70-900 (You have to assume that Hester will progress with a better QB and another year learning the position)

Olsen 60-700 (I feel like this could be the year that Olsen breaks out and has a monster year, but I will stay conservative for now)

Forte 50-350 (Forte should have less touches this year, which will help his durability)

Clark 35-400 (Clark has been pretty consistent over the last 3 years)

Bennett 45-650 (Bennett is probably the biggest wild card - he can easily turn into Colston or be another bust)

Davis 30-400 (Hard to gauge where he will fall. It all depends on who wins the #3 spot)

All Others 35-400

[Wesson44]

One, while we always say we are a running team, I am not sure the stats necessarily support that. Last year, we passed nearly 100 more times than we ran it. The year before? Nearly 150 more times. Year before that? Closer, but edge still goes to the QB.

 

Two, even if you say we are still a running team, does that mean we can't have the receptions? Last year, we passed it 527 times. If you put a good completion % w/ that, and a decent ypp average, I think you will find 340 or so completions is still very realistic. Further, I think most here believe our offense will be better. If that is the case, that means more 1st downs, and thus more total downs. Sure, that means more runs, but it also means more passes.

 

Three, the point was not necessarily to predict who will have what, but to point out the potential. Even looking at it from a conservative angle, I think the potential is considerable.

 

I said myself there is no way all those WRs get the catch totals I threw out there. That would likely mean Cutler would have 400+ completions and be the top QB in the league. The point is more about how drastically better our situation "looks" right now.

I agree with you about the catches they wil be up. I think we have had more passes due to the fact that we are coming from behind alot with theose seasons 7-9, 9-7. When we are ahead we run the ball to control the clock. i have to say this cutler will give our WR better chences to catch the ball

[balta1701-A]

If this O-Line can keep the pass rush off of Cutler...between the fact that the Bears have a much better RB than the Broncos and the fact that by every account the Bears should have a vastly better defense than the Broncos...the only thing that should stop the Bears WR corps from putting up better numbers than the Broncos WR corps is that last year the Broncos always had to outscore everyone and couldn't just run out the clock at the end of the game, whereas hopefully the Bears will be doing that a few times this season.

[azbearsfan]

IMHO those numbers would be nice for our passing game but you forgot one thing. We are a running team and "get off the bus runing,

" so there is no way Hester has 65 catches

 

 

 

God when are we going to let that quote go.

 

Turner is a guy who likes to be pretty balanced and in some cases uses the pass to set up the run.

 

I see no reason not to be balanced this year.

[balta1701-A]

God when are we going to let that quote go.

 

Turner is a guy who likes to be pretty balanced and in some cases uses the pass to set up the run.

 

I see no reason not to be balanced this year.

In terms of balance...don't set out with that being a goal. If this team works right...Cutler should make this offense absolutely click, and the defense should be able to go back to being opportunistic because it shouldn't have to worry about losing a game because it gives up 1 score.

 

Turn Cutler loose in the first half. Use the run as a backup to keep them Honest, but if Cutler is the guy, then let him be the guy and let him make things happen.

 

In terms of balance...worry about that in the 2nd half. Get your lead in the first half and use the run to wear them down and run out the clock in the 2nd.

[azbearsfan]

In terms of balance...don't set out with that being a goal. If this team works right...Cutler should make this offense absolutely click, and the defense should be able to go back to being opportunistic because it shouldn't have to worry about losing a game because it gives up 1 score.

 

Turn Cutler loose in the first half. Use the run as a backup to keep them Honest, but if Cutler is the guy, then let him be the guy and let him make things happen.

 

In terms of balance...worry about that in the 2nd half. Get your lead in the first half and use the run to wear them down and run out the clock in the 2nd.

 

 

Actually I think you do set out with that being the goal. And what I mean by that is opponents will have to honor both the run and pass. If they cheat one way or the other, we can make them pay. You have a great running back and All Pro QB so I think balanced is the way to go.

 

 

I just hate when people offer up the "get of the bus running" quote as some kind of evaluation on what type of offense we run.

[adam]

I believe the Bears will have one of the more balanced attacks in the game this year. Last year we were actually pretty good in that department, but the completion % of the QB's masked it somewhat.

 

Last year:

434 Rush (45%)

528 Pass (55%)

[Wesson44]

Actually I think you do set out with that being the goal. And what I mean by that is opponents will have to honor both the run and pass. If they cheat one way or the other, we can make them pay. You have a great running back and All Pro QB so I think balanced is the way to go.

 

 

I just hate when people offer up the "get of the bus running" quote as some kind of evaluation on what type of offense we run.

Well don't hate me because I used the worlds of our head coach.. Look at what he had just said at the last event.....that we won't change what we do scheme wise just because we have Cutler. But our passing game will keep us above water. Lovie said we will win with oue improved defense and special teams and then he said we wil win some games with our offense. So to me that is the same formula we have been using since he got here.