Cutler At Mini Camp

[defiantgiant]

While I agree with 99% of everything you typed there, I would like to point out one thing.

 

Lovie didn't fire Rivera, he decided to not offer a new contract to a coordinator that had been interviewing for HC gigs that caused a distraction during playoff runs for 2 years in a row. It may be a small distinction, but I think it's an important one. I personally believe (and this is solely my opinion) that had he retained Rivera, Rivera probably would have gotten a HC gig after the 2007 season (primarily due to the Bears showing more faith in him by not replacing him when his contract was up after the 2006 season).

 

I think Lovie screwed up there, but Babich was getting DC interviews already and Lovie didn't want his guy to be somewhere else once Rivera got his HC job. I don't agree with Lovie's decision, but I understand it.

 

Oof, you're totally right about that. I forgot that Rivera's contract was up at the end of that season. I really wish they had extended him, though, even considering the tension between him and Lovie. Whatever their dynamic was, it was clearly great for the defense. I don't want to draw TOO much of a parallel, but Ditka and Buddy Ryan weren't exactly best pals, either...

[madlithuanian]

I can't resist now sticking my nose in!

 

It boils down again to an arguement from a while back...probable vs possible.

 

While what BigDaddy is saying is pure "prediction" the likes of which a soothsayer or psychic would say, he is in no short form saying it will be probable. Everyone else is basically saying it'll be possible.

 

When debating the potential for certain occurrances to happen (attempting to use some semblance of acctuarial statistics,etc.), it would seem logic says that Smith won't be canned the middle of this season.

 

1. No Bears coach has ever been let go mid-season

2. Smith's track record overall is still good, and would still be even if 0-16.

3. The Bears management historically have seen their coaches thtrough the length of the contract.

4. last season had a winning record, but just the playoffs were missed.

 

Given all that, it would appear easy to conclude Smith will probably not be fired during the season barring some henious criminal action on his part.

 

Is it possible? Yes! We all know management can fire at will. But nothing tells us that that action will be probable.

 

End of season, next season...? I'd say there's a greater chance given our off-season moves than in year's/regime's past. But oddsare still no. The team will probably do well enough.

 

It's a Vegas bet. You can choose to bet differently than the way the spread is set. Odds are you'll lose. But sometimes the roulette wheel comes up 00.

 

 

 

 

 

Just to stick my nose.... Whether it is a prediction or an opinion, neither are fact. That any "prediction" is on a message board, it only further illustrates that it is little more than an opinion.

 

Based on recent problems, high expectations, and factoring that he said Lovie would be fired "if" the team bombs out of the gate (all of which he has pointed to) is the basis for his "prediction", which again, is no more than an opinion.

 

In my opinion, Cutler will be great for the Bears. That is also my prediction. Do I have factual evidence to show my prediction to be fact? No. Obviously not. It's just a prediction.

[madlithuanian]

Neither are Eddie Van Halen and David Lee Roth...but together it's like Reese's Peanut Butter Cups!

 

There's something to the difference of opinion that makes the whole better... Keeps people in check and honest.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't want to draw TOO much of a parallel, but Ditka and Buddy Ryan weren't exactly best pals, either...

[defiantgiant]

Just to stick my nose.... Whether it is a prediction or an opinion, neither are fact. That any "prediction" is on a message board, it only further illustrates that it is little more than an opinion.

 

Based on recent problems, high expectations, and factoring that he said Lovie would be fired "if" the team bombs out of the gate (all of which he has pointed to) is the basis for his "prediction", which again, is no more than an opinion.

 

In my opinion, Cutler will be great for the Bears. That is also my prediction. Do I have factual evidence to show my prediction to be fact? No. Obviously not. It's just a prediction.

 

Yeah, I guess the distinction I'm trying to draw is this: a prediction about what will happen can be evaluated factually. You can have a conversation about whether it's likely or unlikely based on the available evidence. An opinion about what ought to happen can't be evaluated along the same lines: it's just as valid whether there's evidence or not. Anyway, I'll leave the whole logic derail alone, I've done too much of it already.

 

Back to OTA news: Jeff Dickerson had some observations on OTAs, not all of them good. The one that worries me the most is this:

 

"Marcus Harrison's recent inactivity was noticeable to those in attendance at the OTA. The defensive tackle looked much heavier than his listed weight of 310 pounds."

 

Hopefully that's nothing to be too concerned about, and he certainly has time to take the weight back off before the season, but I think the Bears need a significant contribution out of Harrison this season. It seems pretty obvious that Tommie needs to be in a rotation to be effective these days: his knee is going to keep him out of a lot of practices going forward, which means both his knee and his conditioning will keep him from being an every-down player in games.

 

Harrison, I think, is being groomed to be our next Tank Johnson: a nose guard who can also play three-technique when needed. Given that Adams and Dvoracek are pure nose guys, our depth chart behind Tommie (if Harrison can't go) probably goes Gilbert, Idonije, Toeania. Both Gilbert and Idonije are likely to have other duties at end and on special teams, so that's a lot less depth than it looks like on paper - we need Harrison to be ready to go when Harris needs a break.

[LT2_3]

One minor issue. While there is no argument Rivera was not fired, or that he interviewed w/ other teams, I do question when you said, "caused a distraction during playoff runs".

 

The reality is, most every team that makes the playoffs has coaches who are getting notice/interviews for promotions and such. I am not sure it is the distraction you make it out to be.

 

Further, and correct me if I am wrong, but Rivera was not able to interview prior to the SB. It was in our "off week" during the playoffs he was allowed to interview, and we seemed to do well in that following game, thus I think it questionable to talk about him having caused a distraction.

 

I'm not saying it was a meaningful distraction. It may have just been a distraction to Lovie. Who knows? The gist of my point though is that Lovie probably wanted someone in that position that really wanted to be there and wasn't constantly looking for their next gig.

 

DG - I also wish Lovie had given Rivera a new contract.

[nfoligno]

I guess my point is, when is a coach not looking for "their next gig". If a coach is successful, they are going to get interest from other teams, and basically all coaches are looking to move up the ladder.

 

IMHO, there are a couple reasons Lovie choose not to retain Rivera, and causing a distraction is not among them.

 

A. The reality is, he wanted Babich to be his DC to begin w/, but (I believe) Phillips said no, and thus Rivera was hired. Then, Lovie (as an unproven commodity himself) didn't have the sway to argue, but coming off a SB appearance, Lovie's pull was at a high, and thus no one within the organization was going to prevent him from promoting his buddy.

 

B. Reports were pretty wide spread. While things on the surface seemed okay between Rivera and Lovie, and each usually said the right things, most felt the two were never fully on the same page. Lovie is a cover 2 guy, and Rivera was not. Rivera was trying to run Lovie's scheme, yet at the same time, many talked about Rivera always trying to tweak it, and Lovie not liking that.

 

C. Many will disagree w/ this, but many also felt that Rivera was taking the limelight away from Lovie. Rivera was getting more credit for the Defense, which Lovie felt was his. Though this would not seem to lineup w/ what we know of Lovie's character, it is not that atypical of NFL coaches either.

 

In the end, I think it was more about A and B than C or distractions. Rivera was never Lovie's first choice, and Rivera was never fully on the same page w/ Lovie in terms of scheme. In letting Rivera walk, Lovie was able to promote the guy who was his first choice all along, and who he knew was on the same page as him in terms of scheme.

 

I'm not saying it was a meaningful distraction. It may have just been a distraction to Lovie. Who knows? The gist of my point though is that Lovie probably wanted someone in that position that really wanted to be there and wasn't constantly looking for their next gig.

 

DG - I also wish Lovie had given Rivera a new contract.

[nfoligno]

Skipping past the prediction stuff, and going w/ the Harrison piece,

 

First thought that comes to mind is, could we have asked Harrison to gain some weight. As you said, we may be looking at him to be our future NT. We read all the time about the staff asking a player to gain or drop weight, Idonije is a great recent example. Maybe the team asked him to gain some weight.

 

The Dickerson piece doesn't necessarily say he looked "fat" but that he looked heavier. Maybe that is by design.

 

Then again, maybe he has made one too many trips to the buffett.

 

Yeah, I guess the distinction I'm trying to draw is this: a prediction about what will happen can be evaluated factually. You can have a conversation about whether it's likely or unlikely based on the available evidence. An opinion about what ought to happen can't be evaluated along the same lines: it's just as valid whether there's evidence or not. Anyway, I'll leave the whole logic derail alone, I've done too much of it already.

 

Back to OTA news: Jeff Dickerson had some observations on OTAs, not all of them good. The one that worries me the most is this:

 

"Marcus Harrison's recent inactivity was noticeable to those in attendance at the OTA. The defensive tackle looked much heavier than his listed weight of 310 pounds."

 

Hopefully that's nothing to be too concerned about, and he certainly has time to take the weight back off before the season, but I think the Bears need a significant contribution out of Harrison this season. It seems pretty obvious that Tommie needs to be in a rotation to be effective these days: his knee is going to keep him out of a lot of practices going forward, which means both his knee and his conditioning will keep him from being an every-down player in games.

 

Harrison, I think, is being groomed to be our next Tank Johnson: a nose guard who can also play three-technique when needed. Given that Adams and Dvoracek are pure nose guys, our depth chart behind Tommie (if Harrison can't go) probably goes Gilbert, Idonije, Toeania. Both Gilbert and Idonije are likely to have other duties at end and on special teams, so that's a lot less depth than it looks like on paper - we need Harrison to be ready to go when Harris needs a break.

[nfoligno]

Always thought about the similarity between Ryan and Ditka, but a couple thoughts I had about that.

 

One, While it is similar in that Ditka was the HC and Ryan the DC, at the same time, Ditka was an offensive guy, while Lovie is defense. Thus, in the 80s, we had a situation where the two may not have liked each other, but were in a better position/situation to give each other space. That was closer to a situation of having two head coaches, one for offense and one for defense. More recent, you just didn't have that.

 

Further, in the recent situation, you had Rivera actually trying to run Lovie's scheme. That is simply very different from the Ryan/Ditka situation where Ditka didn't care how Buddy got it done, so long as he got it done. Rivera didn't have that leeway.

 

Two, while the Ryan/Ditka situation did workout, it was also very short lived. A situation like that might work for a short period of time, but I would say it is doomed to blow up down the road.

 

Oof, you're totally right about that. I forgot that Rivera's contract was up at the end of that season. I really wish they had extended him, though, even considering the tension between him and Lovie. Whatever their dynamic was, it was clearly great for the defense. I don't want to draw TOO much of a parallel, but Ditka and Buddy Ryan weren't exactly best pals, either...

[Mongo3451]

Always thought about the similarity between Ryan and Ditka, but a couple thoughts I had about that.

 

One, While it is similar in that Ditka was the HC and Ryan the DC, at the same time, Ditka was an offensive guy, while Lovie is defense. Thus, in the 80s, we had a situation where the two may not have liked each other, but were in a better position/situation to give each other space. That was closer to a situation of having two head coaches, one for offense and one for defense. More recent, you just didn't have that.

 

Further, in the recent situation, you had Rivera actually trying to run Lovie's scheme. That is simply very different from the Ryan/Ditka situation where Ditka didn't care how Buddy got it done, so long as he got it done. Rivera didn't have that leeway.

 

Two, while the Ryan/Ditka situation did workout, it was also very short lived. A situation like that might work for a short period of time, but I would say it is doomed to blow up down the road.

Actually, I believe Ditka had no choice, as he did not have the ability to direct or fire Ryan. Anyway, I think Ditka(or any HC) would be a fool to interupt the near perfection he was witnessing and did a great job of biting his tongue and riding it out.

[defiantgiant]

Skipping past the prediction stuff, and going w/ the Harrison piece,

 

First thought that comes to mind is, could we have asked Harrison to gain some weight. As you said, we may be looking at him to be our future NT. We read all the time about the staff asking a player to gain or drop weight, Idonije is a great recent example. Maybe the team asked him to gain some weight.

 

The Dickerson piece doesn't necessarily say he looked "fat" but that he looked heavier. Maybe that is by design.

 

Then again, maybe he has made one too many trips to the buffett.

 

Well, I hope you're right. The last thing we need is another high-talent DT with poor conditioning and a dicey knee.

[nfoligno]

As a fan, many things are beyond me, but offseason conditioning is one of those things I just don't get.

 

I do not get the players who feel they can blow off conditioning in the offseason, show up at camp and quickly get into shape and be ready. Most every good/great player has a strong offseason conditioning program. If not, you spend the entire camp huffing and puffing your way into shape, and even if you are in shape by the time of game one, you are not in "playing shape". Essentially, you start out behind everyone, and don't catch up until well after the season begins.

 

Worse, those players who don't maintain condition in the offseason are often the ones who suffer injuries in camp.

 

I too hope this is not the case w/ Harrison.

 

Well, I hope you're right. The last thing we need is another high-talent DT with poor conditioning and a dicey knee.