From Orton to Cutler, transitioning from Mediocrity

[Rush23]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/183949-...from-mediocrity

 

Article I wrote on the transition from Orton to Cutler. Thoughts?

['TD']

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/183949-...from-mediocrity

 

Article I wrote on the transition from Orton to Cutler. Thoughts?

 

"The last quarterback to do that was Eric Kramer in 2006."

 

I'm guessing the year is wrong.

[Guest TerraTor]

"The last quarterback to do that was Eric Kramer in 2006."

 

I'm guessing the year is wrong.

 

I still dont see a reliable reciever on the team outside of Olsen

[Mongo3451]

I still dont see a reliable reciever on the team outside of Olsen

I'm not sure that I'm concerned with that. We know Olsen is a stud, but look at Clark, Hester and Forte. Forte lead all RB's in receptions last year. Add Cutlers boy Bennett to the mix and we'll be fine. An important thing we need to remember about Cutler is that, he will make recievers.

[Rush23]

"The last quarterback to do that was Eric Kramer in 2006."

 

I'm guessing the year is wrong.

 

Thank you...I wrote it at 2am!

[LT2_3]

I thought the metaphor of McMahon riding off into the sunset was out of place. It sounds like he retired after leaving the Bears instead of getting traded to San Diego and finishing his career as a backup in GB.

 

I also thought naming Cutler "Jay Cutsizzle" seemed out of place as well - like about 6 years out of place.

 

Other than those 2 things it's pretty solid even though it doesn't tell anyone anything new that's been paying attention since the trade.

[nfoligno]

Other than those 2 things it's pretty solid even though it doesn't tell anyone anything new that's been paying attention since the trade.

 

Honestly, that is sort of the one negative about being a member of this board. When you read articles from magazines, newpapers, or whatever, most often you are like, "Duh. Knew that weeks ago".

 

Clayton or whoever does a cap breakdown about a month after you.

 

The Trib will do "in depth" looks at our roster months after we have gone through a FAR more detailed discussion.

 

ESPN will do their team by team looks, and look at stuff so basic we can only laugh.

 

Not that I am complaining, but the vast majority of what I read from the "media" regarding the bears offers little "new" information.

[bowlingtwig]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/183949-...from-mediocrity

 

Article I wrote on the transition from Orton to Cutler. Thoughts?

I will say that I believe that Cutler will have more success than Orton in '08, however with that being said I don't expect Cutler to come in and put pro bowl type numbers right away. I expect between 3500-4000 yards passing with 20+ td's and around 10-15 ints. Even with these numbers down from his 4500 yards passing last year he will be a success. Mushin Mohommad comments will be tested. He was quoted as saying "Chicago is where WR's go to die" I believe that was the comment. I would like to see at least 1 WR with 1000 yards receiving.

[nfoligno]

Do you realize how "pro bowl" like the numbers you threw out there are? Looking only at the NFC, as we are talking pro bowl.

 

Only 4 QBs had more than 3,500 yards.

 

Brees and Warner blew that number out of the water, but each also had out of their mind seasons I think few expect to see duplicated. Rodgers and McNabb also were in the 4,000 (give or take) range. The rest were under 3,500.

 

Only 6 QBs had 20+ TDs.

 

Point is, I think even you would say you are throwing out numbers that hedge on the conservative side, and even then, his numbers would still put him in the pro bowl light.

 

I don't think any (at least not many) expect 4,500 (what he had last year) to 5,000 yards. Only two other (besides Cutler) QBs had that many yards, and both play for pass happy teams in domes or warm weather (Brees/Warner). While Cutler played in neither a dome, nor warm weather, he did play on a team w/ (a) horrible defense and ( RBs that went down every game. Thus, he had to pass more. In Chicago, he will (should) have a better defense and run game, thus will not have to throw as often.

 

At the same time, that could also improve his: completion %, YPA, TDs and Int ratio.

 

I can see 4,000 yards, 25 TDs, 15 Ints, 65% completion and 7+ ypa.

 

I think those numbers would put him in pro bowl contention, and make Bear fans VERY happy.

 

 

I will say that I believe that Cutler will have more success than Orton in '08, however with that being said I don't expect Cutler to come in and put pro bowl type numbers right away. I expect between 3500-4000 yards passing with 20+ td's and around 10-15 ints. Even with these numbers down from his 4500 yards passing last year he will be a success. Mushin Mohommad comments will be tested. He was quoted as saying "Chicago is where WR's go to die" I believe that was the comment. I would like to see at least 1 WR with 1000 yards receiving.

[defiantgiant]

I don't think any (at least not many) expect 4,500 (what he had last year) to 5,000 yards. Only two other (besides Cutler) QBs had that many yards, and both play for pass happy teams in domes or warm weather (Brees/Warner). While Cutler played in neither a dome, nor warm weather, he did play on a team w/ (a) horrible defense and ( RBs that went down every game. Thus, he had to pass more. In Chicago, he will (should) have a better defense and run game, thus will not have to throw as often.

 

At the same time, that could also improve his: completion %, YPA, TDs and Int ratio.

 

I can see 4,000 yards, 25 TDs, 15 Ints, 65% completion and 7+ ypa.

 

I think those numbers would put him in pro bowl contention, and make Bear fans VERY happy.

 

I would be surprised if Cutler made it over 4,000 yards this season, given the state of his receivers. However, I think it is reasonable to expect that he'll reduce his interception totals. He was playing in a totally one-dimensional offense last year: the Broncos' injuries at running back, combined with the fact that their defense left them playing from behind all the time, made it so that opposing teams knew Cutler had to throw. Sure enough, he threw it more than any other quarterback except Drew Brees, and did so against teams that knew what was coming. That leads to a lot of picks.

 

If there's one thing you can say about Cutler's situation with the Bears, it's that he won't be in that position again. Our running game is good enough to keep defenses honest, and our defense (question marks and all) isn't going to give up points at the rate that Denver's did last season. That means Cutler should have fewer attempts, yards, and maybe even touchdowns, but he should have a much better completion rate and fewer picks. If he can put up 3700 yards or more, 22-23 touchdowns, and 12-15 picks, I'll be very happy. In 2010, once his receivers are up to speed, I think we can start expecting really big things. I think Philip Rivers' stat line from 2008 is a reasonable target for Cutler in 2010:

 

312/478 (65.3%) for 4,009 yards, 8.4 YPA, 34 TD, 11 Int

 

I fully expect 2009 to be a year where the passing game has to get up to speed. By 2010, I think Cutler has the potential to hit Rivers' mark.

[bowlingtwig]

Do you realize how "pro bowl" like the numbers you threw out there are? Looking only at the NFC, as we are talking pro bowl.

 

Only 4 QBs had more than 3,500 yards.

 

Brees and Warner blew that number out of the water, but each also had out of their mind seasons I think few expect to see duplicated. Rodgers and McNabb also were in the 4,000 (give or take) range. The rest were under 3,500.

 

Only 6 QBs had 20+ TDs.

 

Point is, I think even you would say you are throwing out numbers that hedge on the conservative side, and even then, his numbers would still put him in the pro bowl light.

 

I don't think any (at least not many) expect 4,500 (what he had last year) to 5,000 yards. Only two other (besides Cutler) QBs had that many yards, and both play for pass happy teams in domes or warm weather (Brees/Warner). While Cutler played in neither a dome, nor warm weather, he did play on a team w/ (a) horrible defense and ( RBs that went down every game. Thus, he had to pass more. In Chicago, he will (should) have a better defense and run game, thus will not have to throw as often.

 

At the same time, that could also improve his: completion %, YPA, TDs and Int ratio.

 

I can see 4,000 yards, 25 TDs, 15 Ints, 65% completion and 7+ ypa.

 

I think those numbers would put him in pro bowl contention, and make Bear fans VERY happy.

Yes the numbers that I threw out there were just conservative. And yes looking at those numbers with him being in the NFC that would be pro bowl type numbers. This coming year though I expect the NFC QB's to be better as a whole. I believe that Brees will continue to put his numbers and Warner will continue to put up good numbers but I don't expect anything like last year. I believe we will see a return of McNabb and I think that Rodgers is going to have a better year than last. Wild Cards for me are Romo because I think he is over rated and I am not sure what to think of Eli.

[lemonej]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/183949-...from-mediocrity

 

Article I wrote on the transition from Orton to Cutler. Thoughts?

I know its not easy to write an article for anything but how can you list Bears QBs after McMahon and not have Jim Harbaugh a 1st round pick in 87 on it? You also didn't mention Steve Walsh, Jim Miller and Will Furer.

 

2am? Were you on a deadline?

[nfoligno]

Oh, I agree this could be an interesting year in the NFC. For some time it seems like the talk/belief was the AFC was far and away the better when it came to QBs. Maybe that was true, but I honestly wonder if this year doesn't represent a change, though I would argue a change began last year.

 

As you said, Warner and Brees will likely again have solid seasons, albeit less than last year's ridiculous stats. W/ the weapons at their disposal, I think that is realistic.

 

McNabb should be back? Where did he go? 3,900 yards, 23 TDs to only 11 picks. Not bad. With Jackson a year developed and Maclin added, his stats could go up further.

 

Rogers is going to have a better year? That is a scary thought. He was the #3 QB in the NFC (behind Brees and Warner) w/ 4,000 yards and 28 TDs.

 

Beyond this group though...

 

The AFC loses a pro bowl QB in Cutler to the NFC. Sweet.

 

Matt Ryan had nice yardage stats, especially for a rookie (3,500) but the addition of Tony G could help boost his TD totals.

 

Last year, Hassellback basically missed the season w/ injury, but is healthy again. 4,000 yards and 28 TDs in 2007.

 

Two wild cards (IMHO) are Romo and Eli. Both of which you mention. Both are talented, IMHO, but how much are each hurt by the losses of TO and Burress. I can see Romo sliding, as they did not do as much to replace Burress. NY on the other hand I think was very pro-active. Their new WRs may not be as "known" but I think they have a stable of talented, young WRs. Nicks in the 1st round and big boy Barden later. I like the addition of Derek Hagan, who could really blossom in an improved system w/ a better QB. Also still have Hixon, Steve Smith and Moss, so I can see Eli again having solid numbers.

 

With all that said, I still think Cutler could well be in play to be among the NFC leaders.

 

Yes the numbers that I threw out there were just conservative. And yes looking at those numbers with him being in the NFC that would be pro bowl type numbers. This coming year though I expect the NFC QB's to be better as a whole. I believe that Brees will continue to put his numbers and Warner will continue to put up good numbers but I don't expect anything like last year. I believe we will see a return of McNabb and I think that Rodgers is going to have a better year than last. Wild Cards for me are Romo because I think he is over rated and I am not sure what to think of Eli.