Hester receptions

[AZ54]

Brad Biggs put together some nice stats about the WR last year:

 

http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2009/05/ca...ack_at_pla.html

 

In the comments someone posted the number of times the players were thrown to. While that's unofficial it is amazing to see Hester had 92 passes thrown his way but ended up with a mere 51 receptions. There's a variety of reasons for that including his own learning curve but I have to believe if Cutler gives him that many opportunities his receptions will go up dramatically.

[Wesson44]

Brad Biggs put together some nice stats about the WR last year:

 

http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2009/05/ca...ack_at_pla.html

 

In the comments someone posted the number of times the players were thrown to. While that's unofficial it is amazing to see Hester had 92 passes thrown his way but ended up with a mere 51 receptions. There's a variety of reasons for that including his own learning curve but I have to believe if Cutler gives him that many opportunities his receptions will go up dramatically.

The thrown at and passes caught is a bit misleading considering the factor that how many times did Orton get the ball there. It was over thrown or bounicing off the dirt at least 20 of those throws.

[defiantgiant]

Brad Biggs put together some nice stats about the WR last year:

 

http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2009/05/ca...ack_at_pla.html

 

In the comments someone posted the number of times the players were thrown to. While that's unofficial it is amazing to see Hester had 92 passes thrown his way but ended up with a mere 51 receptions. There's a variety of reasons for that including his own learning curve but I have to believe if Cutler gives him that many opportunities his receptions will go up dramatically.

 

I've mentioned this before, but 51 receptions out of 92 targets is actually not that bad. Hester had a better catch percentage (55%) than T.O. or Braylon Edwards last season. Obviously he needs to improve somewhat, but if he can get up to 65-66% or so, that'll be a very good mark.

 

Also, it's MUCH easier to understand why Bennett finished the season without a catch...he was only on the field for 16 plays! Considering that Hester was on the field for 631 plays but only got the ball thrown to him 92 times, how many looks could Bennett possibly have gotten in 16 snaps?

 

After reading that, I'm a little more hopeful that Bennett will show something this year. He's still an unknown, but the coaching staff clearly didn't give him anything close to a real shot in 2008.

[nfoligno]

I've mentioned this before, but 51 receptions out of 92 targets is actually not that bad. Hester had a better catch percentage (55%) than T.O. or Braylon Edwards last season. Obviously he needs to improve somewhat, but if he can get up to 65-66% or so, that'll be a very good mark.

 

Not sure these two are good comparison, as each are coming off seasons in which they were ripped for their inability to catch the ball.

 

IMHO, 51 out of 92 is pretty bad, but at the same time, w/o question not all Hester's fault. Not even close.

 

Also, it's MUCH easier to understand why Bennett finished the season without a catch...he was only on the field for 16 plays! Considering that Hester was on the field for 631 plays but only got the ball thrown to him 92 times, how many looks could Bennett possibly have gotten in 16 snaps?

 

After reading that, I'm a little more hopeful that Bennett will show something this year. He's still an unknown, but the coaching staff clearly didn't give him anything close to a real shot in 2008.

 

I do not simply believe everything Lovie says, but I do buy into what he said about Bennett last year. Per Lovie, what held Bennett back as much as anything was lack of knowing the playbook. The reason it took so long to learn the playbook was he was given the entire playbook and asked to learn all WR positions. That would be pretty dang tough for a rookie to take on. I think this was done w/ the belief he would not be needed in 2008 w/ veterans Booker and Lloyd in place.

 

But, per Lovie and Rivera, Bennett did began to "get it" later in the season, and thus should be primed to hit the field running.

 

I just hope we do not take a similar approach w/ our 3 rookie WRs.

[defiantgiant]

I've mentioned this before, but 51 receptions out of 92 targets is actually not that bad. Hester had a better catch percentage (55%) than T.O. or Braylon Edwards last season. Obviously he needs to improve somewhat, but if he can get up to 65-66% or so, that'll be a very good mark.

 

Not sure these two are good comparison, as each are coming off seasons in which they were ripped for their inability to catch the ball.

 

IMHO, 51 out of 92 is pretty bad, but at the same time, w/o question not all Hester's fault. Not even close.

 

They're not great comparisons, true. They were just the first two who jumped to mind, though. We can look at some other deep-threat receivers' catch rates from 2008, and they're pretty similar to Hester's. I've got a list here of guys who were #1 receivers on teams with less-than-ideal quarterbacking, so their situations will be as comparable to Hester's as possible:

 

Calvin Johnson caught 78 of 151 targets (51.7%)

Randy Moss caught 69 of 126 (54.8%)

Dwayne Bowe caught 86 of 157 (54.8%)

 

There are plenty of #1 receivers in the league with catch rates comparable to Hester's. Hester's 55.4% catch rate is actually better than Johnson, Moss, or Bowe - he just wasn't thrown to nearly as often as they were. If you're a deep-threat receiver, you don't have to be quite as reliable as a possession guy. Statistically, if Hester had been thrown to as much as Randy Moss was, he would have caught 70 passes for 913 yards. If he'd been thrown to as much as Johnson or Bowe, you're talking about 1100 yards receiving.

 

In terms of Hester's catch rate and production per catch, he's already a very comparable target to Berrian when he was a Bear. In 2007, Berrian caught 70 of 128 passes (54.7% catch rate) for 948 yards. If Hester had been targeted 128 times in 2008, he'd have caught 71 of 128 for 926 yards. Hester's a pretty good deep threat, he just wasn't targeted nearly as often as he should have been last season.

[nfoligno]

Not to nit-pic, but I still have a problem w/ comparisons. I full well understand what you are saying, and understand why you are using the examples you are using. But one problem I have is, we talk about Hester being our #1 WR, which he was, and a deep threat, which he could be, but I just have a hard time putting him against the receivers you are throwing out there.

 

CJ, Moss and Bowe are all elite WRs who demand double coverage on an every down basis. I know you are just trying to find some players to compare to, but that is the problem. These three players are going to have double coverage far more often, and thus are less likely to have a super high completion percentage.

 

Honestly, I think we are arguing the examples here more than the actual point. Yes, I do think that % is low. I believe because:

 

One. Eye ball test. I saw w/ my own eyes so many passes that could have been completions that were not. In other words, I saw so many times Hester was open, but a completion was not in the cards. Often not his fault, but the point is the same.

 

Two. We call Hester a deep threat, but I do not believe he has been a legit deep threat for us thus far. That is due more to our QB and system than him. His YPC is not bad at all, but that is due more, IMHO, to his ability to get the YAC, rather than simply making the catch on a go route. The three WRs listed, and many others who could be, were more legit downfield threats. Again, I am not putting this nearly so much on Hester as I am Orton.

 

At the end of the day, my point is really just that I do not think his % is good, and further, believe it should go up considerably this year w/ Cutler at QB. Cutler is going to help Hester in the following ways:

 

One. Cutler is simply going to throw to Hester more often, IMHO, which will lead to more opportunities. IMHO, w/ more opportunities, his % will improve.

 

Two. Cutler has a better arm, obvious statement alert! This past year, deep balls, when they were thrown, were rarely accurate. Cutler has the ability to put it in the receivers breadbasket.

 

Three. And this is among my favorite aspects about Cutler. Many talk about his ability to hit a WR, but it is also his ability to hit a WR in stride which is huge. Often, we have seen WRs fail to make a catch, but at the same time, they would have had to stop their route, twist their body, or catch a ball thrown behind him. Cutler is known for his ability to lead a WR, and basically throw very catchable balls. I think this will also help improve his numbers.

 

They're not great comparisons, true. They were just the first two who jumped to mind, though. We can look at some other deep-threat receivers' catch rates from 2008, and they're pretty similar to Hester's. I've got a list here of guys who were #1 receivers on teams with less-than-ideal quarterbacking, so their situations will be as comparable to Hester's as possible:

 

Calvin Johnson caught 78 of 151 targets (51.7%)

Randy Moss caught 69 of 126 (54.8%)

Dwayne Bowe caught 86 of 157 (54.8%)

 

There are plenty of #1 receivers in the league with catch rates comparable to Hester's. Hester's 55.4% catch rate is actually better than Johnson, Moss, or Bowe - he just wasn't thrown to nearly as often as they were. If you're a deep-threat receiver, you don't have to be quite as reliable as a possession guy. Statistically, if Hester had been thrown to as much as Randy Moss was, he would have caught 70 passes for 913 yards. If he'd been thrown to as much as Johnson or Bowe, you're talking about 1100 yards receiving.

 

In terms of Hester's catch rate and production per catch, he's already a very comparable target to Berrian when he was a Bear. In 2007, Berrian caught 70 of 128 passes (54.7% catch rate) for 948 yards. If Hester had been targeted 128 times in 2008, he'd have caught 71 of 128 for 926 yards. Hester's a pretty good deep threat, he just wasn't targeted nearly as often as he should have been last season.

[defiantgiant]

Not to nit-pic, but I still have a problem w/ comparisons. I full well understand what you are saying, and understand why you are using the examples you are using. But one problem I have is, we talk about Hester being our #1 WR, which he was, and a deep threat, which he could be, but I just have a hard time putting him against the receivers you are throwing out there.

 

CJ, Moss and Bowe are all elite WRs who demand double coverage on an every down basis. I know you are just trying to find some players to compare to, but that is the problem. These three players are going to have double coverage far more often, and thus are less likely to have a super high completion percentage.

 

Honestly, I think we are arguing the examples here more than the actual point. Yes, I do think that % is low. I believe because:

 

One. Eye ball test. I saw w/ my own eyes so many passes that could have been completions that were not. In other words, I saw so many times Hester was open, but a completion was not in the cards. Often not his fault, but the point is the same.

 

Two. We call Hester a deep threat, but I do not believe he has been a legit deep threat for us thus far. That is due more to our QB and system than him. His YPC is not bad at all, but that is due more, IMHO, to his ability to get the YAC, rather than simply making the catch on a go route. The three WRs listed, and many others who could be, were more legit downfield threats. Again, I am not putting this nearly so much on Hester as I am Orton.

 

At the end of the day, my point is really just that I do not think his % is good, and further, believe it should go up considerably this year w/ Cutler at QB. Cutler is going to help Hester in the following ways:

 

One. Cutler is simply going to throw to Hester more often, IMHO, which will lead to more opportunities. IMHO, w/ more opportunities, his % will improve.

 

Two. Cutler has a better arm, obvious statement alert! This past year, deep balls, when they were thrown, were rarely accurate. Cutler has the ability to put it in the receivers breadbasket.

 

Three. And this is among my favorite aspects about Cutler. Many talk about his ability to hit a WR, but it is also his ability to hit a WR in stride which is huge. Often, we have seen WRs fail to make a catch, but at the same time, they would have had to stop their route, twist their body, or catch a ball thrown behind him. Cutler is known for his ability to lead a WR, and basically throw very catchable balls. I think this will also help improve his numbers.

 

Oh, I'm not trying to say Hester is the same caliber of receiver that any of those guys are. I think the statistics bear that out: if Hester had gotten as many targets as Calvin Johnson, he'd still be nearly 250 yards short of Johnson's production. I was just trying to say that, had he been targeted as often as they were, he would have had legitimate (if probably unspectacular) #1 receiver numbers.

 

My main point is that Hester was underused last season. I think a lot of that had to do, as you say, with Orton not being able to get him the ball on deep routes. Whatever the reason was, I hope that Hester improves his catching in 2009, but I also hope Cutler goes to him much more often than Orton did. If Cutler throws to him 120 or 130 times, Hester could do some real damage, even if he only improves his catch rate by 5-10%.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

I'll still stand by this- I'll bet anyone here that Hester catches atleast 72 passes this year.

[defiantgiant]

I'll still stand by this- I'll bet anyone here that Hester catches atleast 72 passes this year.

 

That sounds totally reasonable. We know that Jay likes to lock in on his #1 receiver: he went to Brandon Marshall 182 times last season. If he targets Hester three-quarters that often, he should catch 72 no problem.

[lemonej]

Oh, I'm not trying to say Hester is the same caliber of receiver that any of those guys are. I think the statistics bear that out: if Hester had gotten as many targets as Calvin Johnson, he'd still be nearly 250 yards short of Johnson's production. I was just trying to say that, had he been targeted as often as they were, he would have had legitimate (if probably unspectacular) #1 receiver numbers.

 

My main point is that Hester was underused last season. I think a lot of that had to do, as you say, with Orton not being able to get him the ball on deep routes. Whatever the reason was, I hope that Hester improves his catching in 2009, but I also hope Cutler goes to him much more often than Orton did. If Cutler throws to him 120 or 130 times, Hester could do some real damage, even if he only improves his catch rate by 5-10%.

DFG I have always felt that Hester is not under used but not used properly. At his size he will be hard presses to be the prototypical #1 receiver but if the OC decides that he has a player with special ability when he gets the ball in space he will create more plays to get hin the ball. I would love to see a formation with 3 WR a TE and Hester in the backfield. I'd also like to see a Hester and Forte combo in the backfield and then send one in motion in our 2 TE set.

 

I know I'm probably over simplifying it but you get what I'm thinking.

[Pixote]

I'll still stand by this- I'll bet anyone here that Hester catches atleast 72 passes this year.

 

Very reasonable expectations.

 

In his first year as a WR (2002) after being primarily a return guy in 2001 Steve Smith had R Peete throwing to him and he caught 54 passes for 872 yds and 3 TDs. In his 2nd year as a WR (2003) he caught 88 passes for 1110 yds and 7 TDs after Carolina brought in an upgrade at QB in J Delhomme.

 

In Hesters 1st year as WR with Orton he made 51 catches for 665 yds and 3 TDs. Now I have to believe Cutler is a better QB than Delhomme and I see no reason why in his 2nd year he can not match S Smith's 2nd year production.

 

S Smith was lost do to injury in 2004 but in his 3rd year as a full time WR he caught 103 passes for 1563 yds and 12 TDs.

 

If Hester can come close to the progression S Smith made in his 2nd & 3rd years, I would be very excited.

[lemonej]

Very reasonable expectations.

 

In his first year as a WR (2002) after being primarily a return guy in 2001 Steve Smith had R Peete throwing to him and he caught 54 passes for 872 yds and 3 TDs. In his 2nd year as a WR (2003) he caught 88 passes for 1110 yds and 7 TDs after Carolina brought in an upgrade at QB in J Delhomme.

 

In Hesters 1st year as WR with Orton he made 51 catches for 665 yds and 3 TDs. Now I have to believe Cutler is a better QB than Delhomme and I see no reason why in his 2nd year he can not match S Smith's 2nd year production.

 

S Smith was lost do to injury in 2004 but in his 3rd year as a full time WR he caught 103 passes for 1563 yds and 12 TDs.

 

If Hester can come close to the progression S Smith made in his 2nd & 3rd years, I would be very excited.

Pix I like your thinking and believe that if he could get back to the form he had on returns in the Super Bowl season he will get his condifdence back up and become ven more deadly on offense.

[AZ54]

Hester needs to quit listening to Deion Sanders who seems to do nothing more than tell him how great he is and how bad his teammates are at blocking, and how bad the Bears management is. Get rid of Deion and get back to hard work and doing what he instinctively did and Hester will be ok.