Cutler clutch in the fourth quarter?

[defiantgiant]

From Kevin Seifert's NFC North blog:

 

"For the purposes of this feature, however, we need to separate [Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers]. Beyond a team's final record, how can you judge whether a quarterback is a "winner?" One way is to analyze his performance in the fourth quarter, when many NFL games are decided. By this measure, at least, Cutler came out ahead in a 2008 comparison.

 

Cutler ranked seventh among regular NFL starters last season with a 94.2 passer rating in the fourth quarter, according to STATS Inc. Rodgers ranked No. 13 at 87.8. For context, take a look at the sampling of fourth-quarter ratings below:

 

Sampling of Fourth-quarter QB Performances, 2008

*Rank Player Team Att. Comp Pct. Yds. TD INT Sack Rating

1 Tony Romo Dallas 109 69 63.3 946 9 1 5 114.7

5 Jake Delhomme Carolina 98 65 66.3 811 3 1 6 97.8

7 Jay Cutler Denver 167 100 59.9 1,212 11 4 5 94.2

10 Donovan McNabb Philadelphia 122 73 59.8 727 6 0 4 93.2

13 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay 143 87 60.8 1,063 8 5 9 87.8

14 Peyton Manning Indianapolis 150 95 63.3 988 6 3 4 87.3

*Limited to regular starters

Source: STATS Inc.

 

Rodgers' statistics dropped across the board when you compare them to his overall numbers in 2008, and he also took nine fourth-quarter sacks. Cutler, meanwhile, improved his touchdown-interception ratio substantially in the fourth quarter. Statistically, at least, you could make the argument that Cutler enhanced his performance during the most important part of the game last season."

[defiantgiant]

Anyway, Seifert's piece is on Cutler vs. Rodgers as the best QB in the NFC North, but Cutler vs. Orton is a no-brainer. Which guy would you want playing for you in the fourth quarter:

 

Orton: 64/112 (57.1%) for 670 yards (6.0 YPA) 2 TDs, 4 Interceptions, 2 sacks - 65.7 passer rating

Cutler: 100/167 (59.9%) for 1,212 yards (7.3 YPA) 11 TDs, 4 Interceptions, 5 sacks - 94.2 passer rating

 

I don't think I'm ready to say Cutler's better than Rodgers or vice versa - they're both relatively young and both have been very, very impressive thus far. But I'll go right ahead and say that Cutler's indisputably an upgrade over Orton if you're trying to close out a game. It's not even close.

[CrackerDog]

Thanks for sharing this. Frankly I'd take Cutler over Romo right this minute (overall) but I'd absolutely go Manning over anyone else in your sample listed. Clearly there's something to be said for playing well in the first three quarters such that you don't have to be so "clutch" in the final quarter. But this is yet another reason to be excited about the coming season, no doubt. Thanks again.

 

Now if can only get Plax, we're Superbowl bound!

[selection7]

Also, 4th quarter wins are more exciting for a fan than a nice, safe 10 point lead all game.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

The biggest stat of Cutler has to be his 13-1 (or something) record when his defense holds opposing offenses to under 21.

[BearFan PHX]

I'm very happy to have Cutler aboard. I think he's a real QB, and can win games for us. I thionk we got him at a bargain too.

 

BUT that said...

 

I am skeptical about 4th quarter stats for Denver teams. Denver is at high elevation, and opposing teams' conditioning breaks down at the end of the game. Elway did it too.

 

Show me stats of Cutler on the road vs. home, and if they are consistent, then I'll be very happy to accept the premise.

[AZ54]

You have to consider that half of his games were away from home so if your premise is right, then at home he averaged much higher than the rating shown and was lower on the road. Regardless, the road performance is in the final numbers.

[nfoligno]

He was actually better on the road than at home, statistically.

 

2189 v 2337 yards at home v away.

 

61.3 v 63.5 completion % at home v away.

 

6.78 v 7.98 ypa at home v away.

 

13-9 v 12-9 td ratio at home v away, near identical.

 

83.2 v 89.1 QB rating at home v away.

 

record both at home and away was 4-4 this past season.

 

 

 

I'm very happy to have Cutler aboard. I think he's a real QB, and can win games for us. I thionk we got him at a bargain too.

 

BUT that said...

 

I am skeptical about 4th quarter stats for Denver teams. Denver is at high elevation, and opposing teams' conditioning breaks down at the end of the game. Elway did it too.

 

Show me stats of Cutler on the road vs. home, and if they are consistent, then I'll be very happy to accept the premise.

[AZ54]

That's pretty impressive to play that well on the road.

[bowlingtwig]

That's pretty impressive to play that well on the road.

impressive to say the least. How many QB's can say they played better on the road than they did at home. Now a question that I have is how does he play in a dome since we have at least a few dome games and we have seen what that crap in Minnesota has done to a few people.

[defiantgiant]

impressive to say the least. How many QB's can say they played better on the road than they did at home. Now a question that I have is how does he play in a dome since we have at least a few dome games and we have seen what that crap in Minnesota has done to a few people.

 

Ask and ye shall receive: Cutler has only played in a dome once in his professional career - in 2008 versus Atlanta. In that game, he completed 19 of 27 passes (70.4%) for 216 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. He had a 106.4 passer rating for the game, which the Broncos won 24-20.

[bowlingtwig]

Ask and ye shall receive: Cutler has only played in a dome once in his professional career - in 2008 versus Atlanta. In that game, he completed 19 of 27 passes (70.4%) for 216 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. He had a 106.4 passer rating for the game, which the Broncos won 24-20.

Good stats, unfortunately he has only played in 1 game. We have had a problem playing in Minnesota so hopefully he proves that he can kick butt there as well. Thanks for the stats.

[BearFan PHX]

He was actually better on the road than at home, statistically.

 

2189 v 2337 yards at home v away.

 

61.3 v 63.5 completion % at home v away.

 

6.78 v 7.98 ypa at home v away.

 

13-9 v 12-9 td ratio at home v away, near identical.

 

83.2 v 89.1 QB rating at home v away.

 

record both at home and away was 4-4 this past season.

 

Thanks VERY much for the stats! I am totally on board with Cutler (I was already) and this does help alleviate some of my concerns. it certainly does show that he can play well anywhere.

 

I'm not sure whether it answers the question of his 4th quarter heroics tho. I'd love to see stats on that home vs. away for 4th quarter only, but I understand that those aren't easy to find.

I'm not arguing with the premise, and you've certainly pushed the ball down the field in proving it, but I don't see 4th quarter proof yet, well only by implication let's say.

 

Still, thanks - and GO BEARS! GO CUTLER!

[BearFan2000]

Even though it is one game in a dome and his stats look to be better than his average. Granted the queens dome is a tougher place to play than the Georgia dome to this point. I see it as a good sign that there isn't significant drop off. When I look at the whole together what jumps out at me is Jay is consistent, like anyone he can and will have a bad game but unlike Wrex it won't be the start of a downward spiral. I have every confidence that the following game he'll be back up to par. It's like having a QB who can play at a level at or above Grossman's best but without the inconsistency, poor mobility, and poor decision making. It's been so long since we've had anything consistent at the QB position other than inconsistency. Case in point the dreaded list which I believe that this season will be the last season that list is brought up and it will be brought up with the comment to the effect of "and the Bears are hoping that Jay can finally put an end to the desperate search." Honestly I don't know what to expect at first, It's sad to think about it but I"m 32 years old and Jay is potentially the best QB the Bears have had in my lifetime. Not to diss Jimmy Mac but he just couldn't stay healthy. We've had guys who had one good season at QB, when was the last time we had a QB that we could realistically expect to be good year in and year out? I can't think of one other than McMahon.

 

Good things man.... good things. Let's get it on!!!

[defiantgiant]

When I look at the whole together what jumps out at me is Jay is consistent, like anyone he can and will have a bad game but unlike Wrex it won't be the start of a downward spiral. I have every confidence that the following game he'll be back up to par. It's like having a QB who can play at a level at or above Grossman's best but without the inconsistency, poor mobility, and poor decision making. It's been so long since we've had anything consistent at the QB position other than inconsistency.

 

I posted this in the thread about Rex, but there was a great article that examined quarterbacks' consistency using the difference in their Adjusted Yards per Attempt from game to game; the upshot was that Rex in '06 was more inconsistent than any quarterback they had ever seen, going all the way back to 1995.

 

I think Cutler gives us the same big-play ability that Rex had (I'll be the first to admit that Rex had an amazing deep ball on the occasions when he was playing well) but with accuracy on short passes and much better decision-making. I know KC Joyner wrote that article criticizing Cutler's bad decisions, but he must not have been watching when Rex imploded. Cutler's a major upgrade over Rex in terms of his mental game: with any luck, he should give us a consistent quarterback with some big-play potential for a long time to come.

[bowlingtwig]

I posted this in the thread about Rex, but there was a great article that examined quarterbacks' consistency using the difference in their Adjusted Yards per Attempt from game to game; the upshot was that Rex in '06 was more inconsistent than any quarterback they had ever seen, going all the way back to 1995.

 

I think Cutler gives us the same big-play ability that Rex had (I'll be the first to admit that Rex had an amazing deep ball on the occasions when he was playing well) but with accuracy on short passes and much better decision-making. I know KC Joyner wrote that article criticizing Cutler's bad decisions, but he must not have been watching when Rex imploded. Cutler's a major upgrade over Rex in terms of his mental game: with any luck, he should give us a consistent quarterback with some big-play potential for a long time to come.

I am 29 and I don't know even know what "consistent QB play" is here in Chicago. I am hoping that Cutler can show us what we have been missing here in Chicago since Sid Luckman don'd the uniform.

[BearFan2000]

we're entering uncharted waters gents and I"m pleased as punch. or kool-aid

 

All my years as a bears fan I watched as other teams regularly found solid QB play not all but many and some seemed to have more than their share of talented QB's. There's a reason the Bears have by tradition been a team defined by tough D and a running game. Overall our QB play has been impressively bad. The comment that Chicago is where receivers go to die would more appropriately be put where receivers go to disappear. I was watching a Payton video and was amazed at how versatile he really was. He was even handed or pitched the ball to throw it because he was a better passer than our QB at the time. Now that's pathetic.

 

For soo long we've grown used to not expect much beyond our QB not drooling all over himself on the field that so much of the hype surrounding Cutler is that we are excited to see someone at QB for the Bears who actually is expected to be good and has proven to be good and still in the early part of his career. All my life it seems I've gone into the season hoping our current QB will do well but not overly confident that he will. For too long we've had to be satisfied with a guy who has potential but has yet to really prove any of it. We are also somewhat nervous not knowing what to expect. Soldier Field will probably erupt when he throws his first TD pass as if we'd never seen that before. I think there will be some ups and downs and growing pains as he get's acclimated to his teammates and our offense. I have to think that it makes Ron's job calling plays a lot easier, as I'm sure there are things he'd like do but has to say.... well we can't do that. I think this is Ron's chance to prove he is a good OC and to an extent the shackles have been removed.

 

Getting back to the premiss of the thread I'm excited to watch a game where we the offense might be called on to win it in the 4th and now we have a QB that as a fan I'm confident he can get it done. I have a lot of respect for Kyle but he was a game manager and his job was not to lose games for us. We now have a guy who we can count on to play well to close the game and can be a game changer. I hate to speak the name Favre but how many times were the packers up against the wall or on the ropes and in walked the one who's name I shall not mention again would seemingly effortlessly drive them down for the game winner. There have been too many games where I knew we wouldn't win it because to win we needed our offense to step up and make some plays and you just knew they weren't capable outside of some freaky miracle series of events like in 2001 with back to back OT wins of which I'd have to say the one at Cleveland was the freakiest, with Shane noodle arm Mathews at QB we scored something like two or three TDs in the last 3 min (memory a little fuzzy) to set up the win in OT. We would have been blown out in AZ in 2006 if it weren't for another one of the craziest string events I've seen on a football field in a long time.

 

Imagine winning games legitimately with skill and execution rather than relying on big plays on special teams or defense or colossal blunders by the opponent. The 85 Bears didn't dominate because they were lucky they dominated because they were dam good, they were aggressive, relentless, and intimidating. The other way Jay factors into the 4th Qtr is that through the previous 3 Qtrs the D will not have been expected to keep us in the game hoping the offense will do something. I played Defensive Tackle and there was nothing more deflating than coming up with a key stop only to see the offense then go 3 and out and your back on the field again I can't even begin to imagine how deflating that would be to experience game in and game out. With Jay at the helm our offense should pull it's own weight and take the pressure off the D so they are fresher in the 4th Qtr. Jay's never played with level of talent we have on D. I have a feeling that the D is going to be re-energized and back to a higher level of play this year. And that will make Jay's job easier..... shoot we may actually see what a balanced team looks like when all three phases can hold their own..... what a concept.

[adam]

Erik Kramer in 1995 was really the last time we had a legitimate Passing threat when he threw for a franchise record 3,838 yards. He did it passing to the likes of Jeff Graham (who led the team in receiving) and Curtis Conway. The 3rd best receiver that year was the FB Tony Carter. Wow. Rashaan Salaam was the lead RB with 1074 rushing yards.

 

Here are some other stats to chew on:

 

The Bears have had only 5 seasons where a QB threw for more than 3,000 yards (Kramer x2, Grossman, Wade, and Harbaugh). Grossman is #2, thats how bad we've been. Many are predicting Cutler to average over that mark every year. He would break the franchise career passing yards in less than 5 years (Luckman 14,686).

 

The Bears have had only 7 seasons where a QB threw for more than 20 TD's (Kramer, Luckman x2, Lujack, Grossman, Wade, and Bukich). Only 2 in the Super Bowl era.

 

The Bears have had only 4 seasons where a QB had a QB rating over 88.0 (Luckman, Bukich, Wade, and Kramer). Only Kramer in the Super Bowl era.

 

Jim McMahon is the only Bears QB to make the Pro Bowl in the Super Bowl era.

 

So Grossman gave us some hope a few years ago, but even that year he only had a 73.9 QB Rating.

 

 

Like BearFan2000 said, we are in completely uncharted territory as Bear's fans, and I am happy to be here.

[madlithuanian]

Great write-up!

 

I cannot wait!

 

we're entering uncharted waters gents and I"m pleased as punch. or kool-aid

 

All my years as a bears fan I watched as other teams regularly found solid QB play not all but many and some seemed to have more than their share of talented QB's. There's a reason the Bears have by tradition been a team defined by tough D and a running game. Overall our QB play has been impressively bad. The comment that Chicago is where receivers go to die would more appropriately be put where receivers go to disappear. I was watching a Payton video and was amazed at how versatile he really was. He was even handed or pitched the ball to throw it because he was a better passer than our QB at the time. Now that's pathetic.

 

For soo long we've grown used to not expect much beyond our QB not drooling all over himself on the field that so much of the hype surrounding Cutler is that we are excited to see someone at QB for the Bears who actually is expected to be good and has proven to be good and still in the early part of his career. All my life it seems I've gone into the season hoping our current QB will do well but not overly confident that he will. For too long we've had to be satisfied with a guy who has potential but has yet to really prove any of it. We are also somewhat nervous not knowing what to expect. Soldier Field will probably erupt when he throws his first TD pass as if we'd never seen that before. I think there will be some ups and downs and growing pains as he get's acclimated to his teammates and our offense. I have to think that it makes Ron's job calling plays a lot easier, as I'm sure there are things he'd like do but has to say.... well we can't do that. I think this is Ron's chance to prove he is a good OC and to an extent the shackles have been removed.

 

Getting back to the premiss of the thread I'm excited to watch a game where we the offense might be called on to win it in the 4th and now we have a QB that as a fan I'm confident he can get it done. I have a lot of respect for Kyle but he was a game manager and his job was not to lose games for us. We now have a guy who we can count on to play well to close the game and can be a game changer. I hate to speak the name Favre but how many times were the packers up against the wall or on the ropes and in walked the one who's name I shall not mention again would seemingly effortlessly drive them down for the game winner. There have been too many games where I knew we wouldn't win it because to win we needed our offense to step up and make some plays and you just knew they weren't capable outside of some freaky miracle series of events like in 2001 with back to back OT wins of which I'd have to say the one at Cleveland was the freakiest, with Shane noodle arm Mathews at QB we scored something like two or three TDs in the last 3 min (memory a little fuzzy) to set up the win in OT. We would have been blown out in AZ in 2006 if it weren't for another one of the craziest string events I've seen on a football field in a long time.

 

Imagine winning games legitimately with skill and execution rather than relying on big plays on special teams or defense or colossal blunders by the opponent. The 85 Bears didn't dominate because they were lucky they dominated because they were dam good, they were aggressive, relentless, and intimidating. The other way Jay factors into the 4th Qtr is that through the previous 3 Qtrs the D will not have been expected to keep us in the game hoping the offense will do something. I played Defensive Tackle and there was nothing more deflating than coming up with a key stop only to see the offense then go 3 and out and your back on the field again I can't even begin to imagine how deflating that would be to experience game in and game out. With Jay at the helm our offense should pull it's own weight and take the pressure off the D so they are fresher in the 4th Qtr. Jay's never played with level of talent we have on D. I have a feeling that the D is going to be re-energized and back to a higher level of play this year. And that will make Jay's job easier..... shoot we may actually see what a balanced team looks like when all three phases can hold their own..... what a concept.