WR-a different appoach

[Stinger226]

As much as we want a number one, I think sitting pat and let the cream rise to the top with the WRs we have. Next year there are several stud WRs up for FAgency. Roddy White, Brandon Mashall, Braylon Edwards, Antonio Bryrant, and TO is on a one year deal. Also V. Jackson from SD is up for contract. We should play the hand out and then grab a FA after we find out what we have and maybe by then we will have our own star on the team.

[defiantgiant]

As much as we want a number one, I think sitting pat and let the cream rise to the top with the WRs we have. Next year there are several stud WRs up for FAgency. Roddy White, Brandon Mashall, Braylon Edwards, Antonio Bryrant, and TO is on a one year deal. Also V. Jackson from SD is up for contract. We should play the hand out and then grab a FA after we find out what we have and maybe by then we will have our own star on the team.

 

I think this is the most likely scenario. If Earl Bennett totally fails to step up, after spending a year in the system and being reunited with his college QB, I think maybe we go shopping in free agency. But all signs point to the Bears going into the 2009 season with what they have.

[nfoligno]

While Bennett is a factor, I think the likes of Hester and/or Knox would be bigger factors.

 

While you always "hope" for the high end production, I think the more reasonable/realistic expectations of Bennett, and Iglesias for that matter, would be solid possession/possession plus #2 WRs. You might hope for a Boldin or Keyshaun Johnson esq player, but you simply want to see them become very solid #2s.

 

Assuming we play the wait and see game, I think it is far more about Hester and Knox. When talking about whether we make a future play for a stud WR (a #1 WR), Bennett isn't going to be a huge factor, as I think few expect him to be a #1. Hester and Knox are the ones who have legit #1 potential. How those two develop this year will go a long way in determining whether we make a run at any of those studs next year.

 

For Knox, he doesn't need to break out as a rookie and suddenly become a stud #1. I think he simply needs to show that potential. For me, what I hope for Knox is a rookie season similar to Devery Henderson. I do not expect him to become an everydown player, but do hope we can utilize his playmaking ability.

 

I think the biggest factor though is Hester. Lovie has flat out said he believe Hester is a #1. While I have read many who have questioned him, frankly, he took a far greater leap at the WR position last year than I expected. Hester was never more than a part time WR in college, and even then, got by on pure talent rather than refined route running. We drafted him as a DB/returner, and his only non-special teams PT as a rookie was at DB. His 2nd season, we used him similar to how Miami did. He didn't really become a WR, but was simply given a few routes and trick plays to learn.

 

Honestly, last year was more similar to a rookie season for him, at least at the WR position, and he started out as the #1 WR for us. 51-665 may have been below many fans expectations, but for me, he went above, not below, especially when you consider how lacking our passing game in general was.

 

Beyond the numbers though, consider how much development he showed. Two years ago, he looked silly as Moose was pushing him into position as Hester was believed too stupid to learn the plays. Last year, there didn't seem to be that lack of knowledge. His route running, IMHO, really developed last year as well, both in deep and short routes. I am not saying he will ever be a GREAT route runner, but I think he at least showed a solid knowledge of the offense, which is more than I expected.

 

I think Hester has a legit shot of becoming a damn good starting WR this year w/ Cutler throwing the rock, and an improved OL providing time for both QB and WR.

 

I think this is the most likely scenario. If Earl Bennett totally fails to step up, after spending a year in the system and being reunited with his college QB, I think maybe we go shopping in free agency. But all signs point to the Bears going into the 2009 season with what they have.

[defiantgiant]

Well, I was looking at it slightly differently. To get up to an acceptable level of production at the WR position, I think we're looking for the greatest single improvement from Bennett. If Hester just gets some more passes thrown his way, he'll be approaching low-end #1 receiver production. His catch rate and production per-catch last year were both perfectly acceptable; to get close to 1000 yards, he really only needs to take a small step forward and get a little more attention from Cutler than he got from Orton.

 

I'm not saying we're not counting on Hester to produce, but I think he doesn't need to step up THAT much. Maybe he goes from 51-665 to something like 70-913. To get 70 catches (even if he doesn't improve on last season at ALL,) Hester would still only need 126 targets, which is around what you'd expect for a #1 receiver on a run-heavy team. Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, and Steve Smith all got around that many targets last season, and they're all #1 options on teams that love to run the ball. So I don't think Hester needs to improve drastically to be a high-end #2 or low-end #1 receiver, he should get to that level of production just by virtue of being the primary option at WR. If he can catch it a little more often or do a little more after the catch, he shouldn't have any problem getting just over 1000 yards on the season.

 

Even with Hester as the #1 guy, however, there's a lot more production unaccounted for. Look at how many times the Bears threw it to WRs last year. Hester got 92 targets, Rashied Davis got 67, Brandon Lloyd got 50 and Marty Booker got 49. That's 258 passes to our top 4 wideouts. I expect Davis' targets to drop significantly, maybe all the way back down to the 32 looks he got in 2007. Suppose that Knox and Iglesias pick up the rest of Davis' targets and Hester sees 126 passes go his way. That leaves 65 passes going to Earl Bennett, which is 64 more than he saw in 2008.

 

So even if the TEs and Forte continue to have a major role in the passing game, the Bears are going to be counting on a significant contribution from Bennett. At a minimum, I think he needs to catch 40 of those 65 for (based on his college YPC) somewhere between 440 and 560 yards, plus at least a couple of scores. That's a much larger leap forward than the one that Devin Hester needs to make, and that's assuming we don't throw it any more often with Cutler than we did with Orton. I'm not saying Earl won't do it, but if he doesn't, we could be in the market for a veteran wideout next offseason.

[nfoligno]

I think we are talking about two different things here.

 

Is Bennett being looked at to make huge strides this year? Absolutely. Maybe more than any other, Bennett is a player the staff is counting on. But that isn't what I am talking about.

 

If we are talking about whether or not we are going to make a play for the elite FA WRs next year (marshall, Edwards, TO, etc) then I think it is more about Hester. If Hester develops into a #1 WR, then I do not see us going into next offseason planning to spend a ton on another #1 WR. That doesn't mean we would ignore any and all FA WR, but in talking about looking at the upper tier of FA WRs, I do not think Bennett is the deciding factor.

 

Bennett could look very good this year, but if Hester for some reason didn't progress and didn't look capable of becoming a #1, we may still go after a stud FA WR, despite Bennett looking solid. On the other hand, Bennett could bomb, yet if Hester looks like a stud, I do not think we would go after a Boldin, Edwards or the like. If the discussion is about future stud FA WRs, then I argue it is based on the production/develop of Hester, not Bennett.

 

Well, I was looking at it slightly differently. To get up to an acceptable level of production at the WR position, I think we're looking for the greatest single improvement from Bennett. If Hester just gets some more passes thrown his way, he'll be approaching low-end #1 receiver production. His catch rate and production per-catch last year were both perfectly acceptable; to get close to 1000 yards, he really only needs to take a small step forward and get a little more attention from Cutler than he got from Orton.

 

I'm not saying we're not counting on Hester to produce, but I think he doesn't need to step up THAT much. Maybe he goes from 51-665 to something like 70-913. To get 70 catches (even if he doesn't improve on last season at ALL,) Hester would still only need 126 targets, which is around what you'd expect for a #1 receiver on a run-heavy team. Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, and Steve Smith all got around that many targets last season, and they're all #1 options on teams that love to run the ball. So I don't think Hester needs to improve drastically to be a high-end #2 or low-end #1 receiver, he should get to that level of production just by virtue of being the primary option at WR. If he can catch it a little more often or do a little more after the catch, he shouldn't have any problem getting just over 1000 yards on the season.

 

Even with Hester as the #1 guy, however, there's a lot more production unaccounted for. Look at how many times the Bears threw it to WRs last year. Hester got 92 targets, Rashied Davis got 67, Brandon Lloyd got 50 and Marty Booker got 49. That's 258 passes to our top 4 wideouts. I expect Davis' targets to drop significantly, maybe all the way back down to the 32 looks he got in 2007. Suppose that Knox and Iglesias pick up the rest of Davis' targets and Hester sees 126 passes go his way. That leaves 65 passes going to Earl Bennett, which is 64 more than he saw in 2008.

 

So even if the TEs and Forte continue to have a major role in the passing game, the Bears are going to be counting on a significant contribution from Bennett. At a minimum, I think he needs to catch 40 of those 65 for (based on his college YPC) somewhere between 440 and 560 yards, plus at least a couple of scores. That's a much larger leap forward than the one that Devin Hester needs to make, and that's assuming we don't throw it any more often with Cutler than we did with Orton. I'm not saying Earl won't do it, but if he doesn't, we could be in the market for a veteran wideout next offseason.

[defiantgiant]

I think we are talking about two different things here.

 

Is Bennett being looked at to make huge strides this year? Absolutely. Maybe more than any other, Bennett is a player the staff is counting on. But that isn't what I am talking about.

 

If we are talking about whether or not we are going to make a play for the elite FA WRs next year (marshall, Edwards, TO, etc) then I think it is more about Hester. If Hester develops into a #1 WR, then I do not see us going into next offseason planning to spend a ton on another #1 WR. That doesn't mean we would ignore any and all FA WR, but in talking about looking at the upper tier of FA WRs, I do not think Bennett is the deciding factor.

 

Bennett could look very good this year, but if Hester for some reason didn't progress and didn't look capable of becoming a #1, we may still go after a stud FA WR, despite Bennett looking solid. On the other hand, Bennett could bomb, yet if Hester looks like a stud, I do not think we would go after a Boldin, Edwards or the like. If the discussion is about future stud FA WRs, then I argue it is based on the production/develop of Hester, not Bennett.

 

OK, I think this is the difference in our perspectives: it depends on what you mean by "#1 receiver."

 

I'm expecting Hester to be a VERY low-end #1 guy in 2009, much closer to Anquan Boldin/Eddie Royal levels of production than Larry Fitz/Brandon Marshall ones. That doesn't mean that he won't be the Bears' #1 option or improve from last year, but I doubt very much that he turns into an elite receiver overnight. If he absolutely blows up and puts up 1400 yards or something like that, then I agree that Chicago wouldn't be in the market for a premier receiver, even if Bennett flops.

 

But I expect Hester to be somewhere in the 900-1000 yard range, sort of between a very productive #2 and a not-that-productive #1. If that happens and Bennett can't step up, I'd rather invest more in the position, bring in a player who is on that elite level, and have Hester as a high-end #2. We could do a lot of damage with Vincent Jackson or Braylon Edwards across from Devin.

 

EDIT: It still makes me mad that the pick we spent on Mark Bradley could have been Vincent Jackson. Let's see, do we want an injury-prone guy with very little experience at the position, or a 6'5" 240-pound matchup nightmare with 37 TD receptions in college?

[nfoligno]

Lets start w/ what I consider a #1 WR. Well, I think there are 3 categories. Stud #1. Statistical #1. Default #1.

 

A default #1 WR is one who is the declared #1 for little more reason than he is the best of a bunch of average WRs.

 

A Stud #1 is the sort of WR who dominates regardless of circumstances. He doesn't need a pro bowl QB, a great #2 WR opposite him, and can beat the very good CBs as well.

 

Then there is the middle #1 WR category. This can put up those high end numbers, but can not do it on his own. Do you know what I mean? Some WRs are simply so good, they would dominate w/ a QB like Orton. For this category though, they would not be able to dominate w/ a lesser QB, but give them the QB/2nd WR or whatever, and they have the ability to put up pro bowl numbers.

 

That is what I think Hester can be. I do not think he is a stud #1, but w/ the QB and OL upgrades, I do think he could put up damn good numbers. W/ Cutler throwing the ball, I think Hester could have 85-1,300 and double digit scores. Will he? I don't know. IMHO, it may depend as much or more on our system. Do we continue to "get off the bus running". Do we make the TE a continued focus/emphasis? Do we allow Cutler to be as aggressive as he wants?

 

Now to the 2nd part of this. Lets say Hester has a solid, improved season, but one that is still lacking for a #1 WR. What do we do then?

 

(a) I think Olsen may be a factor. You talk about Bennett, but what if Olsen takes a step and becomes an upper tier TE? If he puts up big numbers, does that compensate for Bennett not developing more?

 

( Regardless, I still question whether we would go after an upper tier WR. I full well understand your thinking, but at the same time, I still question whether we would go after an elite WR. After really focusing on offense for a couple seasons, both in draft and FA, I think the odds of our spending big again on offense are simply not great. I think more likely, we would (a) look to an average veteran WR and ( focus more on defense.

 

Honestly though, I think TE could be the little discussed factor. You talk about Vincent Jackson, but how about his team. If you have one stud TE, one damn good WR and a stud RB (all of which we may well have in Olsen/Hester/Forte), I am just not sure we go after the big name WR.

 

OK, I think this is the difference in our perspectives: it depends on what you mean by "#1 receiver."

 

I'm expecting Hester to be a VERY low-end #1 guy in 2009, much closer to Anquan Boldin/Eddie Royal levels of production than Larry Fitz/Brandon Marshall ones. That doesn't mean that he won't be the Bears' #1 option or improve from last year, but I doubt very much that he turns into an elite receiver overnight. If he absolutely blows up and puts up 1400 yards or something like that, then I agree that Chicago wouldn't be in the market for a premier receiver, even if Bennett flops.

 

But I expect Hester to be somewhere in the 900-1000 yard range, sort of between a very productive #2 and a not-that-productive #1. If that happens and Bennett can't step up, I'd rather invest more in the position, bring in a player who is on that elite level, and have Hester as a high-end #2. We could do a lot of damage with Vincent Jackson or Braylon Edwards across from Devin.

 

EDIT: It still makes me mad that the pick we spent on Mark Bradley could have been Vincent Jackson. Let's see, do we want an injury-prone guy with very little experience at the position, or a 6'5" 240-pound matchup nightmare with 37 TD receptions in college?

[Stinger226]

Well, I was looking at it slightly differently. To get up to an acceptable level of production at the WR position, I think we're looking for the greatest single improvement from Bennett. If Hester just gets some more passes thrown his way, he'll be approaching low-end #1 receiver production. His catch rate and production per-catch last year were both perfectly acceptable; to get close to 1000 yards, he really only needs to take a small step forward and get a little more attention from Cutler than he got from Orton.

 

I'm not saying we're not counting on Hester to produce, but I think he doesn't need to step up THAT much. Maybe he goes from 51-665 to something like 70-913. To get 70 catches (even if he doesn't improve on last season at ALL,) Hester would still only need 126 targets, which is around what you'd expect for a #1 receiver on a run-heavy team. Hines Ward, Derrick Mason, and Steve Smith all got around that many targets last season, and they're all #1 options on teams that love to run the ball. So I don't think Hester needs to improve drastically to be a high-end #2 or low-end #1 receiver, he should get to that level of production just by virtue of being the primary option at WR. If he can catch it a little more often or do a little more after the catch, he shouldn't have any problem getting just over 1000 yards on the season.

 

Even with Hester as the #1 guy, however, there's a lot more production unaccounted for. Look at how many times the Bears threw it to WRs last year. Hester got 92 targets, Rashied Davis got 67, Brandon Lloyd got 50 and Marty Booker got 49. That's 258 passes to our top 4 wideouts. I expect Davis' targets to drop significantly, maybe all the way back down to the 32 looks he got in 2007. Suppose that Knox and Iglesias pick up the rest of Davis' targets and Hester sees 126 passes go his way. That leaves 65 passes going to Earl Bennett, which is 64 more than he saw in 2008.

 

So even if the TEs and Forte continue to have a major role in the passing game, the Bears are going to be counting on a significant contribution from Bennett. At a minimum, I think he needs to catch 40 of those 65 for (based on his college YPC) somewhere between 440 and 560 yards, plus at least a couple of scores. That's a much larger leap forward than the one that Devin Hester needs to make, and that's assuming we don't throw it any more often with Cutler than we did with Orton. I'm not saying Earl won't do it, but if he doesn't, we could be in the market for a veteran wideout next offseason.

I think both Bennett and Hester have between 60 and 70 catches. With Bennetts YPC at 11 and Hesters at 14. I think Bennett has 4 TDs and Hester 8. I think we will have Olson catching in that range and Forte around 50. So what it amounts to is we will be spreading the ball around quite a bit, with Olson becoming a pro bowl TE and Forte, one of the top 4 RBs in the NFC. So I think we get the job done without a #1 per say, and will look to add another WR next offseason.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

I don't see a way Roddy White leaves Atlanta. I don't like Marshall and his problems, and I'm not an Antonio Bryant fan. I'm not sure what Braylon's problems are with his drops, but until he figures them out, I'll pass. I'd love TO, and I bet TO would love to have not signed in Buffalo had he known Cutler was coming here. Every first year with a new team for TO, he's unreal.

 

BTW- I believe Greg Jennings will also be a UFA after this season.