KC Joyner talk

[nfoligno]

As Sun times pointed out, KC Joyner (ESPN) had a Q & A, and there were a lot of Bears questions he answered.

 

- Cutler - This guy is not a fan, at all. Said Cutler throws a lot of picks, and actually compares him to Rex. While I think most agree he is aggressive, I think there are two key points missing. One. Due to Denver's issues last year, they were forced into being a very pass oriented team. While they may be a passing team anyway, I think they were forced to pass more than they would have liked due to (a) RB injuries and ( awful defense forcing the O to play from behind. When you are playing from behind, and having to pass a ton, you are forced to be more aggressive and take more risks, thus more picks. Two, the issue fans had w/ Rex was only partially his throwing picks. Rex' total lack of pocket presence was a huge aspect, and Cutler appears a drastic shift from that. Further, I would argue that many of Rex' picks came not simply from being aggressive, but lacking field vision and awareness. He simply didn't see the defender, as opposed to Cutler who may see the defender, but believes his arm can get it by that defender. I think Farve is a much better comparison than Rex.

 

- Forte - While not a fan of Cutler, he sure is a fan of Forte. Said Forte will be the next generation of Westbrook. I really don't know about that. While I think he will get a lot of passes, I don't see him ever having 80 or 90 catches in a season. Also, Westbrook was known more for his receiving than rushing, and I don't think that will be the case w/ Forte.

 

One thing he said which surprised me. He said he would take Forte #1 in a PPR league, over even AP.

 

- Hester/Olsen - Said Hester developed and improved route running and as a WR overall, but believes it will be Olsen who becomes the key this year.

[bowlingtwig]

As Sun times pointed out, KC Joyner (ESPN) had a Q & A, and there were a lot of Bears questions he answered.

 

- Cutler - This guy is not a fan, at all. Said Cutler throws a lot of picks, and actually compares him to Rex. While I think most agree he is aggressive, I think there are two key points missing. One. Due to Denver's issues last year, they were forced into being a very pass oriented team. While they may be a passing team anyway, I think they were forced to pass more than they would have liked due to (a) RB injuries and ( awful defense forcing the O to play from behind. When you are playing from behind, and having to pass a ton, you are forced to be more aggressive and take more risks, thus more picks. Two, the issue fans had w/ Rex was only partially his throwing picks. Rex' total lack of pocket presence was a huge aspect, and Cutler appears a drastic shift from that. Further, I would argue that many of Rex' picks came not simply from being aggressive, but lacking field vision and awareness. He simply didn't see the defender, as opposed to Cutler who may see the defender, but believes his arm can get it by that defender. I think Farve is a much better comparison than Rex.

 

- Forte - While not a fan of Cutler, he sure is a fan of Forte. Said Forte will be the next generation of Westbrook. I really don't know about that. While I think he will get a lot of passes, I don't see him ever having 80 or 90 catches in a season. Also, Westbrook was known more for his receiving than rushing, and I don't think that will be the case w/ Forte.

 

One thing he said which surprised me. He said he would take Forte #1 in a PPR league, over even AP.

 

- Hester/Olsen - Said Hester developed and improved route running and as a WR overall, but believes it will be Olsen who becomes the key this year.

I can kinda agree with taking Forte #1 in a PPR league over AP because AP doesn't catch passes he is a straight runner who fumbles the ball WAY to much for owners to like.

 

[defiantgiant]

I can kinda agree with taking Forte #1 in a PPR league over AP because AP doesn't catch passes he is a straight runner who fumbles the ball WAY to much for owners to like.

 

Yeah, plus with the addition of Percy Harvin, a healthy Sidney Rice, and Shiancoe emerging as a decent receiver, I'm not sure AP will even hit his usual 20-receptions mark this season. There are just too many other guys for those dumpoffs to the flat or drag/shallow crossing routes where halfbacks usually get their receiving targets. In a PPR league, I'd take Forte in a heartbeat.

 

I'm ambivalent on Joyner. On the one hand, he did watch all of Cutler's games himself and record it every time he saw a "bad decision" on a play. That's better than just drawing conclusions based on statistics, like I usually have to. On the other hand, he hasn't (as far as I know) disclosed what his metrics were: Joyner says Cutler makes too many bad decisions, but we don't know what he considered to constitute a bad decision. Was it just the times when Cutler threw into double coverage? Hard to blame him for that when he's throwing to Brandon Marshall, who's always double-covered and makes plays regardless. If Joyner was counting times when Cutler locked in on a receiver, missed a hot read, didn't check down when he should have, etc. then I guess that's a different story. We just don't know. But a quick look at Cutler's career numbers suggests that he's a far cry from Rex Grossman.

 

The thing that excites me about Cutler, and the thing that dramatically separates him from Grossman, is his consistency. If memory serves, a passer rating of 80 is supposed to represent the average performance for an NFL starter. In Cutler's 37 starts, he's had 15 games with a passer rating under 80, that is, games where he was below average. However, in only 6 of those 15 did he have a passer rating under 70. He's gotten at least an 80 passer rating in his other 22 starts, and here's the kicker: in a whopping 18 of those 22, his passer rating was at least a 90.

 

What does that tell me about Cutler? First off, on a game-by-game basis, he's good more often than he's bad. That's a start. Secondly, when he does have a bad game, it's usually mediocre (70-79.9 passer rating) rather than catastrophic. Thirdly, when he has a good game, it's almost always exceptionally good (over 90 rating.) Let's look at Grossman's record and see if it stacks up the same way:

 

Rex has had 35 total NFL starts, including the postseason. He had worse than an 80 passer rating in 21 of those 35 games. So unlike Cutler, Rex was bad more often than he was good. And when Rex is bad, he's usually REALLY bad: of those 21 games under an 80, 18 of them were under a 70. In fact, in 11 of those 21 games, Rex was under a 60, which is really incredibly bad (Cutler has only had 3 games below a 60 in his whole career.)

 

Joyner's right about one aspect of the Cutler-Grossman comparison, however: looking at the 14 games where Rex was at least average (an 80 passer rating or more,) he had over a 90 passer rating in 10 of them. So like Cutler, when Grossman was good, he was great. But unlike Cutler, Grossman was bad much more often than he was good. Most importantly, when he was bad, he was usually flat-out awful.

 

That was the killer about Grossman: when he was bad, he was bad enough to lose the game all by himself. That fact far outweighed the benefits of his occasional stratospherically-good game. Cutler's good games are incredibly good, just like Grossman's. But more importantly, his bad games are manageable. They're disappointing, not appalling. On a team with a good defense and a strong running game, a bad day from Cutler won't take us out of the game. That's the biggest area in which he's an upgrade from Rex: every QB has bad days, but Cutler's bad days are ones that a good team can live with.

[bowlingtwig]

Yeah, plus with the addition of Percy Harvin, a healthy Sidney Rice, and Shiancoe emerging as a decent receiver, I'm not sure AP will even hit his usual 20-receptions mark this season. There are just too many other guys for those dumpoffs to the flat or drag/shallow crossing routes where halfbacks usually get their receiving targets. In a PPR league, I'd take Forte in a heartbeat.

 

I'm ambivalent on Joyner. On the one hand, he did watch all of Cutler's games himself and record it every time he saw a "bad decision" on a play. That's better than just drawing conclusions based on statistics, like I usually have to. On the other hand, he hasn't (as far as I know) disclosed what his metrics were: Joyner says Cutler makes too many bad decisions, but we don't know what he considered to constitute a bad decision. Was it just the times when Cutler threw into double coverage? Hard to blame him for that when he's throwing to Brandon Marshall, who's always double-covered and makes plays regardless. If Joyner was counting times when Cutler locked in on a receiver, missed a hot read, didn't check down when he should have, etc. then I guess that's a different story. We just don't know. But a quick look at Cutler's career numbers suggests that he's a far cry from Rex Grossman.

 

The thing that excites me about Cutler, and the thing that dramatically separates him from Grossman, is his consistency. If memory serves, a passer rating of 80 is supposed to represent the average performance for an NFL starter. In Cutler's 37 starts, he's had 15 games with a passer rating under 80, that is, games where he was below average. However, in only 6 of those 15 did he have a passer rating under 70. He's gotten at least an 80 passer rating in his other 22 starts, and here's the kicker: in a whopping 18 of those 22, his passer rating was at least a 90.

 

What does that tell me about Cutler? First off, on a game-by-game basis, he's good more often than he's bad. That's a start. Secondly, when he does have a bad game, it's usually mediocre (70-79.9 passer rating) rather than catastrophic. Thirdly, when he has a good game, it's almost always exceptionally good (over 90 rating.) Let's look at Grossman's record and see if it stacks up the same way:

 

Rex has had 35 total NFL starts, including the postseason. He had worse than an 80 passer rating in 21 of those 35 games. So unlike Cutler, Rex was bad more often than he was good. And when Rex is bad, he's usually REALLY bad: of those 21 games under an 80, 18 of them were under a 70. In fact, in 11 of those 21 games, Rex was under a 60, which is really incredibly bad (Cutler has only had 3 games below a 60 in his whole career.)

 

Joyner's right about one aspect of the Cutler-Grossman comparison, however: looking at the 14 games where Rex was at least average (an 80 passer rating or more,) he had over a 90 passer rating in 10 of them. So like Cutler, when Grossman was good, he was great. But unlike Cutler, Grossman was bad much more often than he was good. Most importantly, when he was bad, he was usually flat-out awful.

 

That was the killer about Grossman: when he was bad, he was bad enough to lose the game all by himself. That fact far outweighed the benefits of his occasional stratospherically-good game. Cutler's good games are incredibly good, just like Grossman's. But more importantly, his bad games are manageable. They're disappointing, not appalling. On a team with a good defense and a strong running game, a bad day from Cutler won't take us out of the game. That's the biggest area in which he's an upgrade from Rex: every QB has bad days, but Cutler's bad days are ones that a good team can live with.

Right and also look at what Cutlers career numbers are when the defense gives up less than 21 pts. Someone posted it awhile back.

[LT2_3]

As Sun times pointed out, KC Joyner (ESPN) had a Q & A, and there were a lot of Bears questions he answered.

 

- Cutler - This guy is not a fan, at all. Said Cutler throws a lot of picks, and actually compares him to Rex. While I think most agree he is aggressive, I think there are two key points missing. One. Due to Denver's issues last year, they were forced into being a very pass oriented team. While they may be a passing team anyway, I think they were forced to pass more than they would have liked due to (a) RB injuries and ( awful defense forcing the O to play from behind. When you are playing from behind, and having to pass a ton, you are forced to be more aggressive and take more risks, thus more picks. Two, the issue fans had w/ Rex was only partially his throwing picks. Rex' total lack of pocket presence was a huge aspect, and Cutler appears a drastic shift from that. Further, I would argue that many of Rex' picks came not simply from being aggressive, but lacking field vision and awareness. He simply didn't see the defender, as opposed to Cutler who may see the defender, but believes his arm can get it by that defender. I think Farve is a much better comparison than Rex.

 

The major problem with his analysis is that he counts "near-INTs" in his calculation. I worked his numbers backwards and he is apparently counting 24 "near-INTs" for Cutler over the past 3 years. I'd love to see how he breaks that down because Cutler's numbers have improved each year at least in the form of actual INTs per attempt.

 

>ints   att   rate   percent
18   616   34.22   0.029220779
14   467   33.35   0.029978587
05   137   27.40   0.03649635
         
37   1220   32.97   0.030327869

 

He went from 1 INT per 27 passes in his rookie year, to 1 in 33 to 1 in 34. So he's improving in this regard anyway.

 

As for the rest of the league, here's the breakdown for last year....

 

>Player      Att   Int   Percent   Rate
Gus Frerotte   301   15   4.98%   20.07
Brett Favre   522   22   4.21%   23.73
Ben Roethliser   469   15   3.20%   31.27
Dan Orlovsky   255   08   3.14%   31.88
Tony Romo   450   14   3.11%   32.14
Marc Bulger   440   13   2.95%   33.85
Jay Cutler   616   18   2.92%   34.22
Jake Delhomme   414   12   2.90%   34.50
Tyler Thigpen   420   12   2.86%   35.00
Derek Anderson   283   08   2.83%   35.38
Joe Flacco   428   12   2.80%   35.67
Shaun Hill   288   08   2.78%   36.00
Drew Brees   635   17   2.68%   37.35
Trent Edwards   374   10   2.67%   37.40
Matt Schaub   380   10   2.63%   38.00
Kyle Orton   465   12   2.58%   38.75
Matt Ryan   434   11   2.53%   39.45
David Garrard   535   13   2.43%   41.15
Aaron Rodgers   536   13   2.43%   41.23
Ryan Fitzpat   372   09   2.42%   41.33
Kurt Warner   598   14   2.34%   42.71
Philip Rivers   478   11   2.30%   43.45
JaMarcus Russ   368   8   2.17%   46.00
Peyton Manning   555   12   2.16%   46.25
Matt Cassel   516   11   2.13%   46.91
Eli Manning   479   10   2.09%   47.90
Donovan McNabb   571   11   1.93%   51.91
Kerry Collins   415   07   1.69%   59.29
Jeff Garcia   376   06   1.60%   62.67
Chad Pennington   476   07   1.47%   68.00
Seneca Wallace   242   03   1.24%   80.67
Jason Campbell   506   06   1.19%   84.33

 

Now these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. While Jason Campbell is very impressive in this regard, very little else can be read into it. The 3 INT difference between Warner and Brees puts them in entirely different parts of the list but I would bet that Brees had to play from behind more often. The same argument applies to Cutler.

 

Another reason to disregard this stat is that Rothlisberger is third on the list behind Frerotte and Favre (Cutler is 7th) and his team just won the SB.

[defiantgiant]

Now these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. While Jason Campbell is very impressive in this regard, very little else can be read into it. The 3 INT difference between Warner and Brees puts them in entirely different parts of the list but I would bet that Brees had to play from behind more often. The same argument applies to Cutler.

 

Also, the one-interception difference between Cutler and Brees puts those two in entirely different parts of the list. If Cutler had thrown 17 picks instead of 18, he'd be at one pick per 36.24 attempts, right behind Brees (who, incidentally, is the only other QB on the list to attempt at least 600 passes.) I'm not sure one interception, more or less, is all that significant.

[LT2_3]

Also, the one-interception difference between Cutler and Brees puts those two in entirely different parts of the list. If Cutler had thrown 17 picks instead of 18, he'd be at one pick per 36.24 attempts, right behind Brees (who, incidentally, is the only other QB on the list to attempt at least 600 passes.) I'm not sure one interception, more or less, is all that significant.

 

Exactly.

[Pixote]

People criticizing Cutler seem to forget he is only 26 years old, has only been a starter for only 2 full seasons in a system with a terrible defense that forced him to gamble to try and catch up to teams that were scoring at will against them. In those two seasons he threw for a combined 8023 yds and has a Pro Bowl appearance. He has come no where near his prime. He is only going to get better with more experience, a better running game to support him, and a better D/ST to give him better field position and not force him to try and be the savior.

[bowlingtwig]

People criticizing Cutler seem to forget he is only 26 years old, has only been a starter for only 2 full seasons in a system with a terrible defense that forced him to gamble to try and catch up to teams that were scoring at will against them. In those two seasons he threw for a combined 8023 yds and has a Pro Bowl appearance. He has come no where near his prime. He is only going to get better with more experience, a better running game to support him, and a better D/ST to give him better field position and not force him to try and be the savior.

Great point. With our D being so much better than Denvers Cutler will be able to relax just knowing that if he helps the offense score 21+ we have a great chance at winning.

[Mongo3451]

People criticizing Cutler seem to forget he is only 26 years old, has only been a starter for only 2 full seasons in a system with a terrible defense that forced him to gamble to try and catch up to teams that were scoring at will against them. In those two seasons he threw for a combined 8023 yds and has a Pro Bowl appearance. He has come no where near his prime. He is only going to get better with more experience, a better running game to support him, and a better D/ST to give him better field position and not force him to try and be the savior.

Totally agree! He may not set the world on fire this year, but he should have steady stats and a good taste of winning. As LT2_3 pointed out, Cutler has improved his pass/int ratio in each of the past 3 seasons, showing that the arrow is indeed pointing up. Throw in what you said about the ancillary units and you have a QB that can be a little more cautious. I'll also add that his primary weapons are going to be less risk than wideouts as he was using them. I mostly see a good dose of the RB's, TE routes and Hester short and deep. Sure, he'll have to throw some medium range routes to keep the D honest, but it won't be the bread and butter as it was in Denver.

[BigDaddy]

Near interceptions? Wow, there's a powerful stat! Can you imagine the things we can learn about a QB now that we know what their near INT ratio is? Me neither. One question though, what constitutes a near INT? who makes the call whether it's a near INT or near drop or near almost caught or near whatever and just what are their credentials? I'll bet Lovie is glad they're writiing about Cutler as opposed to the underachieving and underperforming defense he's trotted out there the last 2 years. I didn't read the stat that Cutler was 13-1 when his defense holds a team to under 21 points. Guess he left that one off.

[defiantgiant]

Totally agree! He may not set the world on fire this year, but he should have steady stats and a good taste of winning. As LT2_3 pointed out, Cutler has improved his pass/int ratio in each of the past 3 seasons, showing that the arrow is indeed pointing up. Throw in what you said about the ancillary units and you have a QB that can be a little more cautious. I'll also add that his primary weapons are going to be less risk than wideouts as he was using them. I mostly see a good dose of the RB's, TE routes and Hester short and deep. Sure, he'll have to throw some medium range routes to keep the D honest, but it won't be the bread and butter as it was in Denver.

 

I think there's good reason to think that Cutler will throw a LOT fewer interceptions in the Bears' offense. It's fairly impressive that he reduced his interception rate from 2007 to 2008, considering that he also went from 467 attempts to 616; most quarterbacks would regress under similar circumstances.

 

Look at the first season Drew Brees topped 600. In 2006, Brees threw 554 times and had 11 interceptions, or one every 50.4 attempts. Then in 2007, he threw 652 times and had 18 picks, one every 36.2 passes. Like the 2008 Broncos, the 2007 Saints had a poor defense and a lot of their games turned into shootouts. Like Cutler, Brees had a single dominant wide receiver: Marques Colston's 2007 was pretty comparable to Brandon Marshall's 2008. Also, both teams had pass-first offensive systems and each lost multiple running backs to injury (the 2007 Saints lost Deuce McAllister after game 3 and Reggie Bush later in the season.)

 

Brees did what you'd expect a QB to do in that kind of situation: he threw picks more often. Cutler, on the other hand, took care of the ball better than the season before. I think that means he probably improved a lot more than we saw: I'm guessing that Cutler would have thrown WAY fewer picks he not been put in a situation where every opposing defense knew he had to throw it. With Forte to keep defenses honest, Cutler should throw a lot fewer picks in 2009.

[defiantgiant]

Near interceptions? Wow, there's a powerful stat! Can you imagine the things we can learn about a QB now that we know what their near INT ratio is? Me neither. One question though, what constitutes a near INT? who makes the call whether it's a near INT or near drop or near almost caught or near whatever and just what are their credentials? I'll bet Lovie is glad they're writiing about Cutler as opposed to the underachieving and underperforming defense he's trotted out there the last 2 years. I didn't read the stat that Cutler was 13-1 when his defense holds a team to under 21 points. Guess he left that one off.

 

So I just saw this quote from Joyner in the Sun-Times: "I'm basing my Cutler comments on three seasons of Denver tape breakdowns. He's a huge risk-taker and that equates to about 1 in 20 of his passes being an [interception] or near [interception] because of a mistake on his part."

 

In the three seasons to which Joyner's referring, Cutler has thrown 1220 passes. By Joyner's count, that gives him 61 "interceptions or near interceptions." Since he's actually only thrown 37 picks in those 3 years, that means Joyner's attributing 24 of those mysterious near-interceptions to Cutler. But we have no basis for comparison, since Joyner doesn't offer any information on what constitutes a league-average number of near-interceptions for that number of passing attempts. In fact, we don't have any frame of reference for near-interceptions at all. There's no way to know how often they normally occur on a per-attempt basis, or even how they're correlated with actual interceptions.

 

It sounds like Joyner is trying to assert that near-interceptions and interceptions are equally bad in terms of evaluating a quarterback. After all, he's saying that both come from plays in which the QB makes a poor decision with the ball. Ignoring for the moment the fact that Joyner appears to assume that every interception is the result of a poor decision (rather than a batted pass at the line, a QB hit from the blindside during the pass, a bobbled catch by the receiver allowing the DB to get a hand on the ball, etc.) there are still problems with his rationale. Joyner doesn't give us anything to account for the fact that some of these poor decisions result in near-INTs while others result in actual interceptions: are the near-INTs slightly better decisions than interceptions, or are they equally bad, but fail to become interceptions due to some other factor (poor play by the defender, exceptional adjustment by the WR, etc.)?

 

If you assume that Joyner's 1-in-20 rate is normally distributed, then he thinks Cutler had 31 INTs/near-INTs in 2008. Cutler threw 18 picks, so that means Joyner thinks a further 13 throws were near-INTs. What exactly is supposed to account for these 13 throws not getting picked off? It's not like he was playing in a division with poor DBs...he was up against the Chargers and the Raiders twice a year. Is Joyner trying to say that Cutler should have been picked off 31 times last season, but he just got lucky? Nobody throws 31 interceptions in a season. Joey Harrington, in his worst season, only threw 22. But if Joyner's NOT trying to say that Cutler should have thrown 31 picks, then he's got to offer some kind of information about how INTs and near-INTs are related statistically, what factors contribute to a given pass being one or the other, and whether those factors can be reasonably construed to be under the QB's control.

[Pixote]

Joey Harrington, in his worst season, only threw 22.

 

 

Heck, future HOFer & MIN Viking Farve only threw 29 INTs in 2005 I wonder how many "near INTs" Farve had that year?

[madlithuanian]

Thanks for the breakdown, it was a good read!

 

The major problem with his analysis is that he counts "near-INTs" in his calculation. I worked his numbers backwards and he is apparently counting 24 "near-INTs" for Cutler over the past 3 years. I'd love to see how he breaks that down because Cutler's numbers have improved each year at least in the form of actual INTs per attempt.

 

>ints   att   rate   percent
18   616   34.22   0.029220779
14   467   33.35   0.029978587
05   137   27.40   0.03649635
         
37   1220   32.97   0.030327869

 

He went from 1 INT per 27 passes in his rookie year, to 1 in 33 to 1 in 34. So he's improving in this regard anyway.

 

As for the rest of the league, here's the breakdown for last year....

 

>Player      Att   Int   Percent   Rate
Gus Frerotte   301   15   4.98%   20.07
Brett Favre   522   22   4.21%   23.73
Ben Roethliser   469   15   3.20%   31.27
Dan Orlovsky   255   08   3.14%   31.88
Tony Romo   450   14   3.11%   32.14
Marc Bulger   440   13   2.95%   33.85
Jay Cutler   616   18   2.92%   34.22
Jake Delhomme   414   12   2.90%   34.50
Tyler Thigpen   420   12   2.86%   35.00
Derek Anderson   283   08   2.83%   35.38
Joe Flacco   428   12   2.80%   35.67
Shaun Hill   288   08   2.78%   36.00
Drew Brees   635   17   2.68%   37.35
Trent Edwards   374   10   2.67%   37.40
Matt Schaub   380   10   2.63%   38.00
Kyle Orton   465   12   2.58%   38.75
Matt Ryan   434   11   2.53%   39.45
David Garrard   535   13   2.43%   41.15
Aaron Rodgers   536   13   2.43%   41.23
Ryan Fitzpat   372   09   2.42%   41.33
Kurt Warner   598   14   2.34%   42.71
Philip Rivers   478   11   2.30%   43.45
JaMarcus Russ   368   8   2.17%   46.00
Peyton Manning   555   12   2.16%   46.25
Matt Cassel   516   11   2.13%   46.91
Eli Manning   479   10   2.09%   47.90
Donovan McNabb   571   11   1.93%   51.91
Kerry Collins   415   07   1.69%   59.29
Jeff Garcia   376   06   1.60%   62.67
Chad Pennington   476   07   1.47%   68.00
Seneca Wallace   242   03   1.24%   80.67
Jason Campbell   506   06   1.19%   84.33

 

Now these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. While Jason Campbell is very impressive in this regard, very little else can be read into it. The 3 INT difference between Warner and Brees puts them in entirely different parts of the list but I would bet that Brees had to play from behind more often. The same argument applies to Cutler.

 

Another reason to disregard this stat is that Rothlisberger is third on the list behind Frerotte and Favre (Cutler is 7th) and his team just won the SB.

 

[madlithuanian]

And on that note, I wonder what marino and Elway's near int's are? I recall a lot of passes bouncing off defenders by sheer velocity alone...

 

Heck, future HOFer & MIN Viking Farve only threw 29 INTs in 2005 I wonder how many "near INTs" Farve had that year?

 

[jason]

Heck, future HOFer & MIN Viking Farve only threw 29 INTs in 2005 I wonder how many "near INTs" Farve had that year?

 

Holy hell. The near INTs from Favre must be astronomical. I'm guessing his near INTs are 2:1 to his actual INTs.

[defiantgiant]

So I just saw this: Smart Football (which is probably my favorite football blog) did a piece on Joyner's comments, and they pretty well shred Joyner. Here's the article. Smart Football thinks, as I do, that Cutler's a clear upgrade over Grossman or Kyle Orton. And unlike Joyner, they have real non-made-up statistics to back up that opinion, rather than Joyner's "near-INT" and "bad decision rate" that we've all been trashing. Check it out:

 

"My favorite passing stat is yards per attempt, because it sweeps in both completion percentage and the yards gained on the completion; I think it reflects the trade-off between pushing the ball downfield and taking the easier completion for less yardage. I like to adjust it, however, to account for interceptions: I subtract 45 yards for every interception thrown, as that is the basic estimate of how much field position/value you lose. No stat is perfect, but I like this one a lot.

 

* In 2008, Jay Cutler threw for 4,526 yards on 616 attempts. He also threw 18 interceptions. Together, that gives him an Adjusted Yards Per Attempt of 6.03.

 

* In 2008, Kyle Orton threw for 2,972 yards on 465 attempts, along with 12 interceptions. Together, his Adj. YPA was 5.23.

 

* In 2006, the year the Bears went to the Super Bowl, Rex Grossman threw for 3,193 yards on 480 pass attempts. He also threw 20 interceptions. Together, his Adj. YPA was 4.78.

 

Again, this is just one stat, but I think it's a pretty good indicator, and Cutler far and away scores the best. And, ironically, he does so despite so many more pass attempts: YPA tends to trend back down once a passer goes beyond being mostly a play-action type guy as a play off the ground game, like Ben Roethlisberger has been for much of his career.

 

Relatedly, let's take Advanced NFL Stats's "Air yards" stat, which calculates yards per attempt without reference to yards after the catch -- yards gained by receivers after they catch the ball. (This stat tends to both measure a QB's ability to complete downfield passes, as well as their propensity to check the ball down to a runningback. Young quarterbacks tend to score most poorly on the list because they struggle downfield and dump the ball off quite a bit.)

 

Cutler comes in at 7th in the league at 4.3 yards per attempt (again, just "Air yards"), while Orton is 29th with 3.3. In 2006, Grossman's was 3.9, and, in 2007 on much less work, it was 3.5. For comparison, Brady and Manning have spent most of the last few years hovering between 4.9-5.2 (though Peyton dipped to 4.3 this past season).

 

Having looked at these stats, I think the question is why does KC Joyner think Cutler will be no better than Grossman or Orton?"

[jason]

Because KC Joyner, like most journalists, doesn't know the sport on which he reports, and instead of doing investigative work, or number crunching, or trend analysis, he just pulls a story out of his ass on gut feeling. Then to compound his idiocy, he uses a "stat" like "near-INT" to support his ridiculous, thereby showing how ignorant he really is.

 

So I just saw this: Smart Football (which is probably my favorite football blog) did a piece on Joyner's comments, and they pretty well shred Joyner. Here's the article. Smart Football thinks, as I do, that Cutler's a clear upgrade over Grossman or Kyle Orton. And unlike Joyner, they have real non-made-up statistics to back up that opinion, rather than Joyner's "near-INT" and "bad decision rate" that we've all been trashing. Check it out:

 

"My favorite passing stat is yards per attempt, because it sweeps in both completion percentage and the yards gained on the completion; I think it reflects the trade-off between pushing the ball downfield and taking the easier completion for less yardage. I like to adjust it, however, to account for interceptions: I subtract 45 yards for every interception thrown, as that is the basic estimate of how much field position/value you lose. No stat is perfect, but I like this one a lot.

 

* In 2008, Jay Cutler threw for 4,526 yards on 616 attempts. He also threw 18 interceptions. Together, that gives him an Adjusted Yards Per Attempt of 6.03.

 

* In 2008, Kyle Orton threw for 2,972 yards on 465 attempts, along with 12 interceptions. Together, his Adj. YPA was 5.23.

 

* In 2006, the year the Bears went to the Super Bowl, Rex Grossman threw for 3,193 yards on 480 pass attempts. He also threw 20 interceptions. Together, his Adj. YPA was 4.78.

 

Again, this is just one stat, but I think it's a pretty good indicator, and Cutler far and away scores the best. And, ironically, he does so despite so many more pass attempts: YPA tends to trend back down once a passer goes beyond being mostly a play-action type guy as a play off the ground game, like Ben Roethlisberger has been for much of his career.

 

Relatedly, let's take Advanced NFL Stats's "Air yards" stat, which calculates yards per attempt without reference to yards after the catch -- yards gained by receivers after they catch the ball. (This stat tends to both measure a QB's ability to complete downfield passes, as well as their propensity to check the ball down to a runningback. Young quarterbacks tend to score most poorly on the list because they struggle downfield and dump the ball off quite a bit.)

 

Cutler comes in at 7th in the league at 4.3 yards per attempt (again, just "Air yards"), while Orton is 29th with 3.3. In 2006, Grossman's was 3.9, and, in 2007 on much less work, it was 3.5. For comparison, Brady and Manning have spent most of the last few years hovering between 4.9-5.2 (though Peyton dipped to 4.3 this past season).

 

Having looked at these stats, I think the question is why does KC Joyner think Cutler will be no better than Grossman or Orton?"

 

[AZ54]

So I just saw this: Smart Football (which is probably my favorite football blog) did a piece on Joyner's comments, and they pretty well shred Joyner. Here's the article. Smart Football thinks, as I do, that Cutler's a clear upgrade over Grossman or Kyle Orton. And unlike Joyner, they have real non-made-up statistics to back up that opinion, rather than Joyner's "near-INT" and "bad decision rate" that we've all been trashing. Check it out:

 

"My favorite passing stat is yards per attempt, because it sweeps in both completion percentage and the yards gained on the completion; I think it reflects the trade-off between pushing the ball downfield and taking the easier completion for less yardage. I like to adjust it, however, to account for interceptions: I subtract 45 yards for every interception thrown, as that is the basic estimate of how much field position/value you lose. No stat is perfect, but I like this one a lot.

 

* In 2008, Jay Cutler threw for 4,526 yards on 616 attempts. He also threw 18 interceptions. Together, that gives him an Adjusted Yards Per Attempt of 6.03.

 

* In 2008, Kyle Orton threw for 2,972 yards on 465 attempts, along with 12 interceptions. Together, his Adj. YPA was 5.23.

 

* In 2006, the year the Bears went to the Super Bowl, Rex Grossman threw for 3,193 yards on 480 pass attempts. He also threw 20 interceptions. Together, his Adj. YPA was 4.78.

 

Again, this is just one stat, but I think it's a pretty good indicator, and Cutler far and away scores the best. And, ironically, he does so despite so many more pass attempts: YPA tends to trend back down once a passer goes beyond being mostly a play-action type guy as a play off the ground game, like Ben Roethlisberger has been for much of his career.

 

Relatedly, let's take Advanced NFL Stats's "Air yards" stat, which calculates yards per attempt without reference to yards after the catch -- yards gained by receivers after they catch the ball. (This stat tends to both measure a QB's ability to complete downfield passes, as well as their propensity to check the ball down to a runningback. Young quarterbacks tend to score most poorly on the list because they struggle downfield and dump the ball off quite a bit.)

 

Cutler comes in at 7th in the league at 4.3 yards per attempt (again, just "Air yards"), while Orton is 29th with 3.3. In 2006, Grossman's was 3.9, and, in 2007 on much less work, it was 3.5. For comparison, Brady and Manning have spent most of the last few years hovering between 4.9-5.2 (though Peyton dipped to 4.3 this past season).

 

Having looked at these stats, I think the question is why does KC Joyner think Cutler will be no better than Grossman or Orton?"

 

 

 

Great post! Stats that backup what we all saw last year: Orton was good at dumpoffs. For sure the Oline played a role here too. On the YPA stat vs. Air Yards it also seems to prove one other aspect that Orton wasn't that good at, hitting a WR in stride.

 

Here's one stat that really is all I need to know: None of the Broncos' fans I know are happy and all the Bears fans are! Both teams have an excellent fan base who know the game and both fans know what their QB brought to the table.