John Lynch weighs in on Marshall, Cutler, Bears

[defiantgiant]

From ESPN Chicago:

 

Lynch: 'Buyer Beware' with Marshall

Former All-Pro safety John Lynch has some advice for the Chicago Bears if they plan on pursuing Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

 

"Buyer beware," Lynch said on the "Waddle & Silvy" show on ESPN 1000.

 

Lynch, who retired last year and will be a FOX television analyst this season, was Marshall's teammate in Denver during the 2006 and '07 seasons. Marshall had made some noise about wanting to be traded, but he recently said he will report to training camp on time.

 

"I don't like saying [buyer beware], but you've got to call a spade a spade, and I think it's a dangerous proposition," Lynch said. "I don't think you'll see the Broncos sign him to a long-term deal, because right now the behavior he's demonstrated off the field, I don't think you'd feel comfortable doing anything long term.

 

"As I said, on the field, he's very comparable to a guy like Terrell Owens. He's that good of a player. But being a professional in my mind ... takes doing it on the field and off the field. You can't have all choir boys. I believe in first and second chances, but when you're talking about 13 or 14 ... I think at a certain point you've got to say this guy's got some issues that he's got to work out before you can trust him."

 

Marshall has one more season on his Denver contract. He's been arrested four times -- including once for domestic abuse -- since March 2006, and he has been penalized with one suspension.

 

Lynch was more complimentary of his former teammate Jay Cutler, whom the Bears acquired in an offseason trade with the Broncos.

 

"I like Jay, he's a friend of mine," Lynch said. "He had some growing up to do, probably still has some growing up to do. But in saying that, I think the Broncos erred in letting him go.

 

"This is a guy, in my mind, that's a once-in-every-15-year-type talent. He's got that kind of skill. I think he'll grow into the other things. I sometimes think during this whole ordeal, they tried to paint him as a bad guy, but he's not a bad guy at all. He's got some growing up to do, but hopefully he learned something from this whole ordeal and offseason."

 

Lynch said part of that maturation process for the 26-year-old Cutler is opening up.

 

"I think he's very reserved and to himself, and that's fine," Lynch said. "I think sometimes it's just the way -- I hate to put it on this -- but sometimes the new generation. They just don't understand things that you think everyone should understand. I think he wants to learn. I think he's reached out to people trying to learn, and I think he will because as I said, once you get to know him on a one-on-one basis, he's by no means a bad person or a bad teammate. He's just, as I mentioned, got some things to grow up in."

 

Lynch, who was born in Hinsdale, Ill., predicted the Bears would win the NFC North.

 

"You guys are in Chicago right? I was born in Hinsdale, so I better say Chicago," Lynch said. "Lovie [smith is] a good friend. I think what bodes well for the Bears is Lovie getting back involved in that defense.

 

"I think at times you feel like, 'I just need to be a head coach,' but when you don't see the type of play that you're accustomed to seeing as a coach, I think he's as good as it gets as a defensive coach in this league, and he's going to get back involved. He's got a guy, Rod Marinelli, don't underestimate him. In our years in Tampa, we put more pressure on quarterbacks than anybody, and he was a big reason. You've got to have the players, but he gets the best out of each and every player. So the Bears, there's my pick."

[madlithuanian]

Don't know why, but I'm finding myself liking Lynch more and more!

[BearFan2000]

Don't know why, but I'm finding myself liking Lynch more and more!

 

Always had a respect for Lynch the guy let his play on the field do his talking and it spoke volumes. He was one of those players who gave you everything they had and he was a class act. A lot of young guys could learn something from him.

 

I think he's spot on with the Marshall and Cutler comments. Marshall has some growing up to but should he grow out of his off the field behavior he will make some team a very solid player that they can count on. Bringing someone in here with his level of maturity issues to a group of young inexperienced WR's is a bad mix. If we bring someone in I'd rather see someone more mature who actually can rub off on the young guys in a good way. I also think he's right about Cutler that he does have some growing up do do but the difference is he knows it and is working on becoming a better pro and he want to show the Bears, their fans and the NFL that Jerry made a wise move in bringing him here.

[chitownman]

Don't know why, but I'm finding myself liking Lynch more and more!

 

 

I agree whole heartily with this comment. I think John Lynch is one hell of a guy and was one hell of a player. I also agree that Marshall is not all that with his off-field problems and would rather go another way if at all possible. Cutler I think is going to shore up the QB position for a while and I hope that JA does not screw things up and builds around Cutler and Forte and Olsen.

[defiantgiant]

I also agree that Marshall is not all that with his off-field problems and would rather go another way if at all possible.

 

Honestly, I think Marshall's not that incredible ON the field, either. His stats look great until you find out how many times Cutler threw to him. I mean, these are impressive numbers:

 

Marshall 2007: 102 receptions, 1325 yards, 7 TDs

Marshall 2008: 104 receptions, 1265 yards, 6 TDs

 

...but Marshall led the league in targets both seasons, with 170 in 2007 and 182 in 2008. So between 2007 and 2008, Cutler threw to Marshall on 352 passes. That's massive - no other receiver in the league comes close. Over that span, Larry Fitz is in 2nd place with 321 targets, and TJ Houshmandzadeh is 3rd with 305. No other #1 receiver in the league, even ones who were absolutely the go-to guys on their respective teams (guys like T.O., Derrick Mason, Roddy White, and Braylon Edwards,) managed to break 300 targets.

 

Any reasonably capable receiver would look good when thrown to that often. Let's assume for a minute that in 2009, Devin Hester fails to improve at ALL on a per-target basis: I mean that he doesn't get open any more often, he doesn't catch the ball more often, he doesn't put up more average yards or scores per pass that goes his way, nothing. Even if that were the case, Hester would STILL put up good-looking numbers if Cutler threw to him as often as he did to Marshall.

 

Judging from Hester's 2008 per-target production, if you threw him 352 passes, he'd have 195 catches for 2544 yards and 11 TDs. If we assume that the targets in Hester's hypothetical two seasons break down the same way Marshall's 2007-2008 did, that means we'd see the following:

 

Hester 2009: 94 receptions, 1229 yards, 5 TDs

Hester 2010: 101 receptions, 1315 yards, 6 TDs

 

Not too shabby, huh? On the same number of attempts, Hester would put up numbers very comparable to Marshall's. I think that's reasonable evidence that a lot of people (especially in the sports media) are both underestimating Hester and dramatically overestimating Marshall.

 

Needless to say, I doubt the Bears will nearly double Hester's workload for 2009 (he was only thrown at 92 times in 2008.) All I'm trying to say is this: on a per-target basis, which I think is one of the better ways to gauge a receiver's performance, Marshall just isn't that special. He's pretty good, but no better than a lot of starting guys. In my mind, he's just an above-average receiver who's benefited tremendously from a huge number of passes going his way.

[AZ54]

Great post!

[nfoligno]

Great points.

 

While I think Marshall is a damn good WR, at the same time, there is little question IMHO that he benefited from having a great QB. We always hear about how Cutler was so much more successful in Denver than he is expected to be in Chicago due to the WRs he had in Denver, but I have wondered for some time how much of that "great level of WR talent in Denver" was due more to Cutler. Royal was a rookie WR, and while he played great, was he truly an all-pro WR, or was he a good WR who benefited from a pro bowl QB? If he were a rookie this year, and Orton was his QB, does anyone believe Royal would have the same numbers?

 

Despite what so many have talked about, I can't help but to wonder, if Cutler could do for the Denver receivers what he did, what can he do for ours?

 

Honestly, I think Marshall's not that incredible ON the field, either. His stats look great until you find out how many times Cutler threw to him. I mean, these are impressive numbers:

 

Marshall 2007: 102 receptions, 1325 yards, 7 TDs

Marshall 2008: 104 receptions, 1265 yards, 6 TDs

 

...but Marshall led the league in targets both seasons, with 170 in 2007 and 182 in 2008. So between 2007 and 2008, Cutler threw to Marshall on 352 passes. That's massive - no other receiver in the league comes close. Over that span, Larry Fitz is in 2nd place with 321 targets, and TJ Houshmandzadeh is 3rd with 305. No other #1 receiver in the league, even ones who were absolutely the go-to guys on their respective teams (guys like T.O., Derrick Mason, Roddy White, and Braylon Edwards,) managed to break 300 targets.

 

Any reasonably capable receiver would look good when thrown to that often. Let's assume for a minute that in 2009, Devin Hester fails to improve at ALL on a per-target basis: I mean that he doesn't get open any more often, he doesn't catch the ball more often, he doesn't put up more average yards or scores per pass that goes his way, nothing. Even if that were the case, Hester would STILL put up good-looking numbers if Cutler threw to him as often as he did to Marshall.

 

Judging from Hester's 2008 per-target production, if you threw him 352 passes, he'd have 195 catches for 2544 yards and 11 TDs. If we assume that the targets in Hester's hypothetical two seasons break down the same way Marshall's 2007-2008 did, that means we'd see the following:

 

Hester 2009: 94 receptions, 1229 yards, 5 TDs

Hester 2010: 101 receptions, 1315 yards, 6 TDs

 

Not too shabby, huh? On the same number of attempts, Hester would put up numbers very comparable to Marshall's. I think that's reasonable evidence that a lot of people (especially in the sports media) are both underestimating Hester and dramatically overestimating Marshall.

 

Needless to say, I doubt the Bears will nearly double Hester's workload for 2009 (he was only thrown at 92 times in 2008.) All I'm trying to say is this: on a per-target basis, which I think is one of the better ways to gauge a receiver's performance, Marshall just isn't that special. He's pretty good, but no better than a lot of starting guys. In my mind, he's just an above-average receiver who's benefited tremendously from a huge number of passes going his way.

 

[defiantgiant]

Great points.

 

While I think Marshall is a damn good WR, at the same time, there is little question IMHO that he benefited from having a great QB. We always hear about how Cutler was so much more successful in Denver than he is expected to be in Chicago due to the WRs he had in Denver, but I have wondered for some time how much of that "great level of WR talent in Denver" was due more to Cutler. Royal was a rookie WR, and while he played great, was he truly an all-pro WR, or was he a good WR who benefited from a pro bowl QB? If he were a rookie this year, and Orton was his QB, does anyone believe Royal would have the same numbers?

 

Despite what so many have talked about, I can't help but to wonder, if Cutler could do for the Denver receivers what he did, what can he do for ours?

 

It might not even be Cutler who's responsible for Marshall and Royal's success, to be honest. I think we'll find out this season whether Jay elevates his receivers' play or vice versa. I really hope it's the former. Regardless of how it turns out, though, I think Marshall and Royal owe their success more to Shanahan calling a million passes per game, such that they each got an overwhelming number of passes going their way. Hell, Shanahan called Eddie Royal's number 129 times last year. That's more than a lot of teams' #1s, and totally ridiculous for a rookie #2 receiver.

 

All that said, I'll be happy with Cutler if he can do two things, neither of which is related to Marshall or Denver:

 

1.) Hit Devin Hester on all those deep passes Kyle Orton underthrew/overthrew/otherwise missed last year.

2.) Get Earl Bennett to put up numbers anywhere close to what he did at Vanderbilt.

 

If Jay can do that, and I think he can, then I'm happy.

[nfoligno]

It might not even be Cutler who's responsible for Marshall and Royal's success, to be honest. I think we'll find out this season whether Jay elevates his receivers' play or vice versa. I really hope it's the former. Regardless of how it turns out, though, I think Marshall and Royal owe their success more to Shanahan calling a million passes per game, such that they each got an overwhelming number of passes going their way. Hell, Shanahan called Eddie Royal's number 129 times last year. That's more than a lot of teams' #1s, and totally ridiculous for a rookie #2 receiver.

 

Regarding the number of passes Shanny called for, don't forget a key reason why they called for so many passes. Their defense was god-awful. Further, while I realize their end-of-year rushing stats were decent/good, they didn't have a single RB they could rely on. 1,800 team rushing yards on the year, but no single RB w/ even 400. That is incredible.

 

So Cutler bombed away, but there was a huge reason for this.

 

All that said, I'll be happy with Cutler if he can do two things, neither of which is related to Marshall or Denver:

 

1.) Hit Devin Hester on all those deep passes Kyle Orton underthrew/overthrew/otherwise missed last year.

 

As much as everyone is excited for this, there is a Cutler/Hester "thing" I am even more excited about. I think most would agree Hester has mad skills w/ the ball in his hands, yet I never felt he got the RAC he should have. A major reason for that, IMHO, is that while Orton may have been able to hit him (not talking about deep patterns), his passes were not such that really led the WR. Thus, often times WRs had to slow their stride or make the catch behind him. One thing Cutler is known for is his ability to lead WRs. He doesn't just put the ball where the WR can catch it, but leads the WR, thus the WR makes the catch in stride and is able to cause damage after the catch.

 

The reality is, there are only going to be so many deep bombs Cutler/Hester complete. When we see them, they are exciting as hell. They are like hitting a homerun in baseball. But in a baseball game (most at least) you might have a homerun here and there, but you have far more runs based on singles, doubles, baserunning, etc. I am really excited to see Hester's potential maximized by having a QB that can hit him in stride, and watching Hester take an 8 yard catch for 20 or 30 yards. That is more likely to happen more often, and I think could be an even bigger part of our offense than simply the deep bombs.

 

2.) Get Earl Bennett to put up numbers anywhere close to what he did at Vanderbilt.

 

I would love to see Bennett put up decent to nice #2 numbers. At the same time, I am also really excited about the potential our rookies bring. I am not predicting either will match Royal's numbers, but I think each has big upsdie. I love the potential Engram, er, I mean Iglesais brings. I was super high on him leading up to the draft, and was thrilled we got him. And then there is Knox, who could really surprise many. IMHO, Knox has borderline 1st round talent, but coming from a small school really knocked down his draft value. The believe was it would take him longer to develop, but he looked well ahead of the curve in camp. I am not predicting a huge number of catches for him, but truly believe he can have a Devery Henderson impact for us, w/ fewer catches but for big yards.

 

Finally, as much as I am excited about the potential of our WRs, it is the Cutler/Olsen connection that really gets me going. I look at Witten in Dallas (81-950) and really see that potential for Olsen. If Olsen can become an elite TE (which I think very possible) it could really open things up for our WRs.

 

 

[madlithuanian]

Agreed AZ54!

 

Keep up the great topics, defiant! You're takes have been great reads!

 

Great post!

 

[lemonej]

Honestly, I think Marshall's not that incredible ON the field, either. His stats look great until you find out how many times Cutler threw to him. I mean, these are impressive numbers:

 

Marshall 2007: 102 receptions, 1325 yards, 7 TDs

Marshall 2008: 104 receptions, 1265 yards, 6 TDs

 

...but Marshall led the league in targets both seasons, with 170 in 2007 and 182 in 2008. So between 2007 and 2008, Cutler threw to Marshall on 352 passes. That's massive - no other receiver in the league comes close. Over that span, Larry Fitz is in 2nd place with 321 targets, and TJ Houshmandzadeh is 3rd with 305. No other #1 receiver in the league, even ones who were absolutely the go-to guys on their respective teams (guys like T.O., Derrick Mason, Roddy White, and Braylon Edwards,) managed to break 300 targets.

 

Any reasonably capable receiver would look good when thrown to that often. Let's assume for a minute that in 2009, Devin Hester fails to improve at ALL on a per-target basis: I mean that he doesn't get open any more often, he doesn't catch the ball more often, he doesn't put up more average yards or scores per pass that goes his way, nothing. Even if that were the case, Hester would STILL put up good-looking numbers if Cutler threw to him as often as he did to Marshall.

 

Judging from Hester's 2008 per-target production, if you threw him 352 passes, he'd have 195 catches for 2544 yards and 11 TDs. If we assume that the targets in Hester's hypothetical two seasons break down the same way Marshall's 2007-2008 did, that means we'd see the following:

 

Hester 2009: 94 receptions, 1229 yards, 5 TDs

Hester 2010: 101 receptions, 1315 yards, 6 TDs

 

Not too shabby, huh? On the same number of attempts, Hester would put up numbers very comparable to Marshall's. I think that's reasonable evidence that a lot of people (especially in the sports media) are both underestimating Hester and dramatically overestimating Marshall.

 

Needless to say, I doubt the Bears will nearly double Hester's workload for 2009 (he was only thrown at 92 times in 2008.) All I'm trying to say is this: on a per-target basis, which I think is one of the better ways to gauge a receiver's performance, Marshall just isn't that special. He's pretty good, but no better than a lot of starting guys. In my mind, he's just an above-average receiver who's benefited tremendously from a huge number of passes going his way.

DFG you have to take into consideration who Denver had in the backfield running the ball which led them to be more pass oriented. Then the fact that last season they were basically a passing team means Marshall was the focus of defenses and he still caught 101passes, that is impressive.Off the field he is an absolute moron but on the field he is a special player along the lines of that moron Chris Henry of the Bengals. Coming out of college (Central Florida) in order for him to be invited to the Combine he had to have shown scouts something that made him standout. If I had to choose between Marshall or Boldin I would choose Boldin because he is more mature off the field than Marshall.

 

If I were to predict a potential fantasy boom for a pass catching Bear its Olsen who I think is much more talented than Tony Schefler. BTW none of the Bears will have that many passes thrown their way because Nov in Chicago is not kind to a passing attack. The only thing that may change this is if there are injuries to Forte and Jones. And still the wind whistling off the lake that time of year is brutal.

[Mongo3451]

Marshall was the focus of defenses and he still caught 101passes, that is impressive.Off the field he is an absolute moron but on the field he is a special player along the lines of that moron Chris Henry of the Bengals. Coming out of college (Central Florida) in order for him to be invited to the Combine he had to have shown scouts something that made him standout.

Agreed, Marshall is a stud. He reminds me a lot of Andre Johnson. (size, speed, hands) I do believe also, that if Hester had the same opportunities that he would have some really good numbers, as well.

 

That being said, I really don't want to see Hester used in that way, as I don't want to see hin absorbing the punishment a 100 catch receiver endures. If he catches 70-80 balls a year and consistently provides nightmares for opposing DC's, I'm thrilled. Let our #2, TE's and RB's be the workhorses of our offense. Keep Hester fresh for the ridiculousness!

[lemonej]

Agreed, Marshall is a stud. He reminds me a lot of Andre Johnson. (size, speed, hands) I do believe also, that if Hester had the same opportunities that he would have some really good numbers, as well.

 

That being said, I really don't want to see Hester used in that way, as I don't want to see hin absorbing the punishment a 100 catch receiver endures. If he catches 70-80 balls a year and consistently provides nightmares for opposing DC's, I'm thrilled. Let our #2, TE's and RB's be the workhorses of our offense. Keep Hester fresh for the ridiculousness!

Mongo I'm on the same page and even if we have inexperienced WRs I prefer for Turner to try and create matchup problems. For example line Hester up in the backfield in a 3WR 2 TE set and see who would pick him up coming out of the backfield. I also would be thrilled if the Bears realize the reason they wanted to get him the ball more in the first place is because he is a special kick returner and the only Bear in history that measures up to him is my childhood idol Gayle Sayers who suffered from what you fear Mongo over use.