Predictions

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

Just wanted to see who you guys think will lead some statistical categories. Here are mine:

 

TD receptions: Olsen (7)

Receptions: Hester (71)

Receiving Yards: Hester (1123)

Tackles: Briggs (149)

Sacks: Ogunleye (10.5)

Interceptions: Tillman (6)

Forced Fumbles: Tillman (7)

 

Biggest surprise: Ogunleye (special mention: Iglesias, Kevin Jones)

Biggest letdown: Vasher (special mention: Anderson [at this point, is him struggling even a letdown though?], Bennett)

 

Bears finish 11-5 and win the NFC with a 27-13 win at home vs Atlanta.

[chitownman]

Brian,

 

Those are definitely some numbers that I hope come true with Forte' getting roughly 1,250 minimum with ideally a minimum of six rushing touchdowns as well. I just hope you are correct and that we do win the NFC North and have at least one playoff game in Chicago. I am not sure we have all the pieces to be contenders this year however, anything is possible. I am just so anxious for the next ten days to pass and that training camp opens. I look forward to the season more and more for the first time in about twenty-four years.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

Brian,

 

Those are definitely some numbers that I hope come true with Forte' getting roughly 1,250 minimum with ideally a minimum of six rushing touchdowns as well. I just hope you are correct and that we do win the NFC North and have at least one playoff game in Chicago. I am not sure we have all the pieces to be contenders this year however, anything is possible. I am just so anxious for the next ten days to pass and that training camp opens. I look forward to the season more and more for the first time in about twenty-four years.

We won 9 games last year without Omiyale, Cutler, Pace, Iglesias + Knox (whatever we get out of them = bonus), a healthy Jones, and a healthy Chris Williams. I think we have all the pieces and then some. While I think our safeties are medicore, Ogunleye and Anderson are in contract years and they will (atleast 1 of them will) get to the QB this year which makes it that much easier on the secondary. The word out of OTA's is that Vasher is in great shape, too.

 

I'll be at the first 2 days of TC (July 31 at 3, August 1 at 7) and I can't wait.

 

[Pixote]

We expect some insider info from you, LOL.

[Bears4Ever_34]

11-5 sounds about right.

 

Receptions: Olsen- 88

Receiving Yards: Olsen- 1012

Touchdowns: Hester- 8

Rushing Yards: Forte- 1200

Rushing TD's: Forte- 11

 

Cutler predictions: 3400 yards 26 TD's 14 INT's

[jason]

Just wanted to see who you guys think will lead some statistical categories. Here are mine:

 

TD receptions: Olsen (7)

Receptions: Hester (71)

Receiving Yards: Hester (1123)

Tackles: Briggs (149)

Sacks: Ogunleye (10.5)

Interceptions: Tillman (6)

Forced Fumbles: Tillman (7)

 

Biggest surprise: Ogunleye (special mention: Iglesias, Kevin Jones)

Biggest letdown: Vasher (special mention: Anderson [at this point, is him struggling even a letdown though?], Bennett)

 

Bears finish 11-5 and win the NFC with a 27-13 win at home vs Atlanta.

 

TD Receptions: Hester (9) - If he catches just one or two more bombs than last year, things will open up. And considering the improvement in arm strength from Orton to Cutler, this is not hard to see.

Receptions: Hester (85) - He develops into the #1 WR.

Recieving Yards: Hester (1200) - I'll just make it a round number and keep the koolaid flowing.

Tackles: Urlacher (135) - Urlacher has a revitalization, Briggs comes in a very close second.

Sacks: Alex Brown (8) - Until the defensive style changes, this is a flaw in the system. The "always rush around the end" strategy is not made for sacks.

Interceptionss: Vasher (8) - The Interceptor is back!

Forced Fumbles: Tillman (5) - He's still the best at the swipe-tackle.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

We expect some insider info from you, LOL.

Most definitley. Not a problem.

[nfoligno]

TD Receptions: Hester (9) - If he catches just one or two more bombs than last year, things will open up. And considering the improvement in arm strength from Orton to Cutler, this is not hard to see.

 

I'll go w/ Olsen here. While I think Hester will catch his share of bombs, I don't see him as enough of a red zone threat to expect him to be our top TD man. I think Olsen has double digit scores for us. Not only do I think he steps up as a red zone target, but I think he (like Hester) proves capable of working downfield more.

 

Receptions: Hester (85) - He develops into the #1 WR.

 

Going with Olsen again. Like some others, I think the Cutler/Olsen hook-up will be similar to Romo/Witten. I too think low to mid 80's will lead the team, but give it to Olsen.

 

Recieving Yards: Hester (1200) - I'll just make it a round number and keep the koolaid flowing.

 

Agreed here. I think Hester leads the team in receiving, and becomes a big play threat. I think he will have around 70 catches for around 1,100 yards (about 16 ypc avg.)

 

Tackles: Urlacher (135) - Urlacher has a revitalization, Briggs comes in a very close second.

 

I think Briggs continues to lead the team in tackles, but agree Urlacher has a revitalized season. I think that Briggs will continue to lead in tackles, but Urlacher will be a close 2nd, and further, see him being a playmaker again, putting up 5 & 5 (sacks/picks)

 

Sacks: Alex Brown (8) - Until the defensive style changes, this is a flaw in the system. The "always rush around the end" strategy is not made for sacks.

 

While I agree w/ the statement about running wide and outside, I would make the point that we have a DL coach who coached a pretty damn successful DL, thus, whether the system is altered, tweaked or whatever, the system may not hold us back so much as it has in the past. I think Wale will lead the team in sacks w/ 8 or 9. I would love to predict double digit, but I just don't think that will happen. I do think we could have 3 DL (Wale, Brown, Harris) in the 8 sack range, w/ a few more players like Anderson and Urlacher in the 5 to 6 sack range.

 

Interceptionss: Vasher (8) - The Interceptor is back!

 

I'll take Urlacher here too, though it may be a tie.

 

Forced Fumbles: Tillman (5) - He's still the best at the swipe-tackle.

 

About as good of a prediction as any.

[DrunkBomber]

We won 9 games last year without Omiyale, Cutler, Pace, Iglesias + Knox (whatever we get out of them = bonus), a healthy Jones, and a healthy Chris Williams. I think we have all the pieces and then some. While I think our safeties are medicore, Ogunleye and Anderson are in contract years and they will (atleast 1 of them will) get to the QB this year which makes it that much easier on the secondary. The word out of OTA's is that Vasher is in great shape, too.

 

I'll be at the first 2 days of TC (July 31 at 3, August 1 at 7) and I can't wait.

 

Also, the legend of Rod Marinelli should be interesting. Its crucial for our defense to pressure the QB considering our lack of improvement in the secondary so hopefully he will revert to being a great coordinator.

[BearSox]

9-7 or 10-6.

 

Biggest disappointment will be the defense, with the OLine struggling for the first half of the year.

 

Offense will be much improved.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

Also, the legend of Rod Marinelli should be interesting. Its crucial for our defense to pressure the QB considering our lack of improvement in the secondary so hopefully he will revert to being a great coordinator.

Then again, Lovie has said he will be calling the plays on defense.

[AZ54]

TD Receptions: Hester (9) - If he catches just one or two more bombs than last year, things will open up. And considering the improvement in arm strength from Orton to Cutler, this is not hard to see.

Receptions: Hester (85) - He develops into the #1 WR.

Recieving Yards: Hester (1200) - I'll just make it a round number and keep the koolaid flowing.

Tackles: Urlacher (135) - Urlacher has a revitalization, Briggs comes in a very close second.

Sacks: Alex Brown (8) - Until the defensive style changes, this is a flaw in the system. The "always rush around the end" strategy is not made for sacks.

Interceptionss: Vasher (8) - The Interceptor is back!

Forced Fumbles: Tillman (5) - He's still the best at the swipe-tackle.

 

 

Good point about always rushing around the edge. I am wondering if we are about to see the end of that. I realize setting the edge is always the DEs first responsibility but once a pass play is identified there should be no reason they can't change up and swim back inside. We've seen this on occasion but not nearly enough. I bring this up because we have Marinelli now and Lovie is calling the plays but let me explain.

 

Within any given system there typically are no absolutes. To be successful at high level you almost always need to have people on the front lines who can recognize an opportunity and take advantage of it. I have some military background and our decentralized system on the battle field is playing into my thoughts, successful companies do the same. There are great coaches who always seem to fully understand those nuances of the system, when to deviate from the norm and, most importantly, can teach their players the same.

 

This came to mind because of the other thread where chat drifted off toward Belichik, Weiss, Mangini, Crennel, etc. Belichik failed in Cleveland with the same or similar system he's using in New England. The difference is he learned what his mistakes were and he corrected them (his own words). Proteges may be successful in executing the leaders system under his guidance but they often don't pick up the nuances. I can go around the league with lots of examples, pick any coaching tree you want: Walsh, Belichik, Parcells but in all cases you see guys who were very successful with the leader around but couldn't replicate it on their own. Young McDaniels thought he could head to Denver and take on Belichik's "my way or the highway" approach, except it's not going to well for him. Perhaps Bill knows which guys to put on the highway, or better yet, when to put them on the highway. I know there are other factors involved when guys go from OC/DC to head coach but still these proteges successfully interviewed for their HC job so they knew enough to convince people they could replicate it.

 

How does this reflect on us this season? We now have Marinelli and Lovie, two guys who have absolutely proven

success in our defensive system at least in their current roles. These two guys have shown they understand the nuances of the scheme. Guys like Babich, maybe he's ok as a position coach but when I think back to last year our D seemed to be frozen into doing the same things over and over. He knew the overall concepts of the scheme but not the nuances and how to adapt it to the offense he was facing. Think back to our DBs complaining that they were just executing the system as the coaches wanted it done even though we gave up inside slants all year long. I seem to recall some similar comments from Alex Brown and even Urlacher seemed at odds with things. I expect this year we'll be seeing a defense that adapts to the situation better than they did last year and that includes some more creative play from the DEs.

 

I think we'll see a change on our Dline and in particular the DEs pass rush because while Marinelli knows setting the edge is the first task, the first responsibility of the Dline is to get to the QB. There's a difference in the nuance.

********************************************************

 

I'm putting Danieal Manning in for 4 sacks this year. He's an outstanding athlete and last year he showed good ability to get to the QB. He only had 1 sack but there were more hurries in there that resulted in broken plays. With another offseason doing nothing but practicing at nickel back and some better situational coaching I expect to see more blitzes from him, and more success. Lining up Url and Briggs off the LOS helps set this up too as they'll be able to drop into coverage more quickly.

 

 

 

 

[nfoligno]

Agreed all around.

 

On coaching, I actually think Babich did try to mix some things up. His playing the LOS close to the LOS is an example. Problem is, he was too slow to adapt as opponents adapted. In the first game, the way we used our LBs was new and frankly, it worked. But very quickly teams adapted, and Babich was simply WAY to slow to adapt to their change. A game is like a chess match. You start out w/ a plan, but once your opponents figures out your plan, you have to adapt. Babich proved incapable of such.

 

Also agree that while Lovie will be calling plays, Marinelli will have a huge role w/in the pass rush. Further, w/ the chemistry/trust between he and Lovie, I think he will give Marinelli a lot more freedom.

 

Finally, you touch on how lining up Urlacher and Briggs off the LOS will help the DBs. 100% agree. I just never understood this. Even our CBs talked about it. The system is based on their taking away the outside, and funneling the WR into the middle of the field, where the LBs are expected to help out. But due to how we used our LBs, the middle of the field was wide open. Thus, even when the CB did his job, the WR would still have a wide open catch w/ room to run.

 

One one point on this I never understood. A few years ago, Lovie talked about how Urlacher was best when running downhill. He talked about devising the scheme to ensure Urlacher (and others) were always moving downhill, and how that was the way you make plays. But Babich did the exact opposide. By forcing Urlacher to play on top of the LOS, he put Urlacher in a position to always be backpeddling, which is exactly what Lovie previously said was what we didn't want to do, as it takes Urlacher out of "his game".

 

More than ever before, I felt last year our D failed due far more to coaching than to talent. Maybe this year will prove me wrong on this, but I honestly believe our D will look very good, and scheme/playcalling changes will have a dramatic effect on this.

 

Good point about always rushing around the edge. I am wondering if we are about to see the end of that. I realize setting the edge is always the DEs first responsibility but once a pass play is identified there should be no reason they can't change up and swim back inside. We've seen this on occasion but not nearly enough. I bring this up because we have Marinelli now and Lovie is calling the plays but let me explain.

 

Within any given system there typically are no absolutes. To be successful at high level you almost always need to have people on the front lines who can recognize an opportunity and take advantage of it. I have some military background and our decentralized system on the battle field is playing into my thoughts, successful companies do the same. There are great coaches who always seem to fully understand those nuances of the system, when to deviate from the norm and, most importantly, can teach their players the same.

 

This came to mind because of the other thread where chat drifted off toward Belichik, Weiss, Mangini, Crennel, etc. Belichik failed in Cleveland with the same or similar system he's using in New England. The difference is he learned what his mistakes were and he corrected them (his own words). Proteges may be successful in executing the leaders system under his guidance but they often don't pick up the nuances. I can go around the league with lots of examples, pick any coaching tree you want: Walsh, Belichik, Parcells but in all cases you see guys who were very successful with the leader around but couldn't replicate it on their own. Young McDaniels thought he could head to Denver and take on Belichik's "my way or the highway" approach, except it's not going to well for him. Perhaps Bill knows which guys to put on the highway, or better yet, when to put them on the highway. I know there are other factors involved when guys go from OC/DC to head coach but still these proteges successfully interviewed for their HC job so they knew enough to convince people they could replicate it.

 

How does this reflect on us this season? We now have Marinelli and Lovie, two guys who have absolutely proven

success in our defensive system at least in their current roles. These two guys have shown they understand the nuances of the scheme. Guys like Babich, maybe he's ok as a position coach but when I think back to last year our D seemed to be frozen into doing the same things over and over. He knew the overall concepts of the scheme but not the nuances and how to adapt it to the offense he was facing. Think back to our DBs complaining that they were just executing the system as the coaches wanted it done even though we gave up inside slants all year long. I seem to recall some similar comments from Alex Brown and even Urlacher seemed at odds with things. I expect this year we'll be seeing a defense that adapts to the situation better than they did last year and that includes some more creative play from the DEs.

 

I think we'll see a change on our Dline and in particular the DEs pass rush because while Marinelli knows setting the edge is the first task, the first responsibility of the Dline is to get to the QB. There's a difference in the nuance.

********************************************************

 

I'm putting Danieal Manning in for 4 sacks this year. He's an outstanding athlete and last year he showed good ability to get to the QB. He only had 1 sack but there were more hurries in there that resulted in broken plays. With another offseason doing nothing but practicing at nickel back and some better situational coaching I expect to see more blitzes from him, and more success. Lining up Url and Briggs off the LOS helps set this up too as they'll be able to drop into coverage more quickly.

 

[defiantgiant]

Within any given system there typically are no absolutes. To be successful at high level you almost always need to have people on the front lines who can recognize an opportunity and take advantage of it. I have some military background and our decentralized system on the battle field is playing into my thoughts, successful companies do the same. There are great coaches who always seem to fully understand those nuances of the system, when to deviate from the norm and, most importantly, can teach their players the same.

 

Emphasis mine. I think you hit the nail on the head here. The reason the Bears' scheme was so successful in 05-06, aside from fewer injuries and better execution, was that Rivera wasn't a total Tampa-2 devotee and knew when to throw in a new wrinkle. The Tampa-2 has some glaring weaknesses (read: TE on an 8-yard slant) that need to be camouflaged in order for it to be successful. Rivera got that done by deviating from Lovie's scheme at exactly the right moments. If teams can count on you to do the same thing every down, regardless of how effective it is or how well you execute, they're going to find a way to beat you. A good defense in the NFL needs to be both efficient and unpredictable. I hope Lovie and Rod can make that happen this season.

 

As for my predictions, here we go:

 

Pass Attempts: Jay Cutler, 540

Completions: Jay Cutler, 345

Passing Yards: Jay Cutler, 3940

Passing TDs: Jay Cutler, 24

Passing INTs: Jay Cutler, 14

Passer Rating: Jay Cutler, 89.4

 

Receptions: Greg Olsen, 78

Receiving Yards: Devin Hester, 1008

Receiving TDs: Greg Olsen, 7

 

Carries: Matt Forte, 305

Rushing Yards: Matt Forte, 1312

Rushing TDs: Matt Forte, 10

 

Tackles: Lance Briggs, 135

Sacks: Alex Brown, 11

Interceptions: Charles Tillman, 5

Forced Fumbles: Charles Tillman, 4

 

Some thoughts:

- Part of my calculation for Hester is that I don't think he'll get thrown at more than 120 times or so. I'm predicting significant, but not huge, increases in both his catch rate and yards-per-catch. I'm thinking 60% and 14 YPC, respectively (that's up from 55% and 13 YPC in 2008.) So his stat line would look something like 72 catches, 1008 yards, 5 TDs.

 

- On that same note, I think Cutler will go to Earl Bennett around 85 times (not very scientific - I just took the ratio of Cutler's throws to Marshall:Royal, which is about 1.41:1, then applied that to Hester:Bennett.) Hopefully, that'll make Bennett's stat line something like 55 receptions for 665 yards and 5 TDs. I'd be very happy with that stat line in his first year as a starter.

 

- I think Urlacher's going to rebound, just not all the way to 2006 levels. That was a ridiculous year for him, even by his own standards. I think he should end up with 120-130 tackles on the season.

 

- Same goes for Ogunleye: I see him bouncing back to 7-8 sacks or so, but not back to his 10 from 2005. For one thing, he'll lose too much playing time to Idonije, who's moving to LE full-time. I think those two could be in a 60/40 or even 50/50 rotation. Gilbert could steal some reps, too. Alex Brown, on the other hand, should benefit just as much from Marinelli and won't lose as many snaps to Mark Anderson/Henry Melton. Given how many non-sack QB hits he had last season (when all the QBs we played were taking 3-step drops,) I think he's the best candidate for double digits.

 

- Speaking of Mark Anderson, I think he plays well enough to stay on the team and solidify his spot as a nickel rusher. I'm thinking he logs at least 6 sacks, maybe even 7 or 8. Not like his rookie season, but good enough.

 

- Lastly, I just don't believe that Vasher will step up. Tillman, sure: if his shoulders are fixed, I think he'll play better than last season. But post-2005, Vasher has looked bad even when he was healthy enough to play. I think he might play just well enough to hold off Zack Bowman, but I think this could be Vasher's last season as a Bear.

[nfoligno]

As for my predictions, here we go:

 

Pass Attempts: Jay Cutler, 540

Completions: Jay Cutler, 345

Passing Yards: Jay Cutler, 3940

Passing TDs: Jay Cutler, 24

Passing INTs: Jay Cutler, 14

Passer Rating: Jay Cutler, 89.4

 

I agree these are both possible, and very good looking stats.

 

Receptions: Greg Olsen, 78

Receiving Yards: Devin Hester, 1008

Receiving TDs: Greg Olsen, 7

 

Agreed on Olsen leading the team in receiving, and give or take a couple, 80 is about right.

 

I think Hester will have more yards, and will discuss below.

 

I think Olsen has more scores. He had 5 last year, but I think will have considerably more this year due to:

(a) He will have more catches. I think he has 20 or more catches this year.

( He will have more red zone catches, an area I think Orton was only so-so last year.

© He will have more plays downfield, and area very limited w/ Orton, but where Olsen could emerge as a big play TE.

 

Carries: Matt Forte, 305

Rushing Yards: Matt Forte, 1312

Rushing TDs: Matt Forte, 10

 

I would hope for a few more scores, but otherwise like the numbers.

 

Tackles: Lance Briggs, 135

Sacks: Alex Brown, 11

Interceptions: Charles Tillman, 5

Forced Fumbles: Charles Tillman, 4

 

No arguments, except I am not sure Brown gets 11, but will discuss below.

 

Some thoughts:

- Part of my calculation for Hester is that I don't think he'll get thrown at more than 120 times or so. I'm predicting significant, but not huge, increases in both his catch rate and yards-per-catch. I'm thinking 60% and 14 YPC, respectively (that's up from 55% and 13 YPC in 2008.) So his stat line would look something like 72 catches, 1008 yards, 5 TDs.

 

Key reason I think Hester has more yards is I believe his ypc will be greater. He had 13 ypc last year, w/ a QB that (a) struggled to "lead" the WR, even when the catch was made and ( was not good w/ the deep ball. This year, I think Hester will see a considerable bump, not just a one yard average, to his ypc. I think he will have a ypc between 16 and 17. Thus, if he catches 70 or so, I think his yards will be around 1,100-1,200.

 

- On that same note, I think Cutler will go to Earl Bennett around 85 times (not very scientific - I just took the ratio of Cutler's throws to Marshall:Royal, which is about 1.41:1, then applied that to Hester:Bennett.) Hopefully, that'll make Bennett's stat line something like 55 receptions for 665 yards and 5 TDs. I'd be very happy with that stat line in his first year as a starter.

 

Agreed. I think Hester and Olsen are the primary targets, and one more (Bennett the most likely) will see the vast majority of the rest of the attempts.

 

- I think Urlacher's going to rebound, just not all the way to 2006 levels. That was a ridiculous year for him, even by his own standards. I think he should end up with 120-130 tackles on the season.

 

I think Urlacher rebounds, but agree Briggs leads in tackles. I think our system is such that the WLB plays the run as the MLB does in many/most other systems. The WLB faces less opposition to the ballcarrier, and the play is often funneled to him. At the same time, I think Urlacher will be 2nd in tackles, and more important, we see his playmaking stats go up again as he plays downhill, rather than back-peddling as he did w/ Babich. I think 5 ints/5 sacks will be in his sights.

 

- Same goes for Ogunleye: I see him bouncing back to 7-8 sacks or so, but not back to his 10 from 2005. For one thing, he'll lose too much playing time to Idonije, who's moving to LE full-time. I think those two could be in a 60/40 or even 50/50 rotation. Gilbert could steal some reps, too. Alex Brown, on the other hand, should benefit just as much from Marinelli and won't lose as many snaps to Mark Anderson/Henry Melton. Given how many non-sack QB hits he had last season (when all the QBs we played were taking 3-step drops,) I think he's the best candidate for double digits.

 

I really disagree here. I just do not see Idonije getting so much time, either outside or inside. Unless Wale doesn't play well, I think Idonije will be limited to depper depth on the DL and special teams. I just have always felt he was over-rated in terms of DL. He is nice depth, but not much more. I think Wale will see the most snaps among the DEs. Brown is the one I think will more often sub w/ Anderson, who I think (as it appears you do) will get his pass rushing form again. I think both Anderson and Brown will be in the 6-8 sack range, while Wale will be a couple better.

 

- Lastly, I just don't believe that Vasher will step up. Tillman, sure: if his shoulders are fixed, I think he'll play better than last season. But post-2005, Vasher has looked bad even when he was healthy enough to play. I think he might play just well enough to hold off Zack Bowman, but I think this could be Vasher's last season as a Bear.

 

Again, I simply disagree here. Many point to Vasher's play going downhill after signing his new deal. I point to the change in DC. More than most, though far from alone, Vasher complained about the scheme and how he was used. As I have often pointed out, a key complain of Vashers was, per the scheme, he was expected to take away the outside and funnel WRs inside, where help was expected to step in. But due to our playing the LBs on top of the LOS, that inside help was simply not there. Thus, Vasher would do as he was supposed to do, but in doing so, all he ended up doing was pushing the WR into an even greater hole in our defense. I am not saying none of the fault was Vasher's, but I do believe, like w/ Urlacher, the coaching seriously degraded his play.

 

Its sort of like when they are in a zone defense, and the CB releases the WR to the safetey, as they are supposed to do, but the safety is late to cover. The WR makes the catch and the CB gets the blame, even though he did what he was supposed to do. IMHO, similar was seen w/ Vasher. He often did as he was supposed to do, but in doing so, a hole in the scheme was exposed. As fans watching the game, we simply saw Vasher chasing behind a WR who made a catch over the middle, but I would argue our LBs were supposed to be there protecting the middle, but were inable to get into position due to how they were told to lineup on the LOS. Make sense?

 

Injuries are a key concern w/ Vasher, no argument there, but I honestly believe he, as much as maybe only urlacher, is in line for a big return in performance due to no other reason than our change in coaching.

[defiantgiant]

Nfo, that all sounds very reasonable, with one exception:

 

Key reason I think Hester has more yards is I believe his ypc will be greater. He had 13 ypc last year, w/ a QB that (a) struggled to "lead" the WR, even when the catch was made and ( was not good w/ the deep ball. This year, I think Hester will see a considerable bump, not just a one yard average, to his ypc. I think he will have a ypc between 16 and 17. Thus, if he catches 70 or so, I think his yards will be around 1,100-1,200.

 

The thing to remember is that among receivers with significant playing time, YPC is very tightly grouped. A 14 is pretty high, a 12 is just OK, and a 10 is pretty low. As such, a one-yard bump is very significant. For example, among players with at least 30 receptions in 2008, Hester's 13.0 YPC put him at 43rd in the league. If he'd had a one-yard increase up to 14.0, that would have moved him all the way up to 29th, right around where Reggie Wayne was.

 

If Hester had a YPC of 16-17, that's another story entirely. Only 11 guys in the NFL managed a 16.0 or better on at least 30 catches. A YPC of 17.0 would put Hester right under Calvin Johnson, and significantly above guys like Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, and Lee Evans. That's a lot to expect from Hester, even if you think (as I do) that he's due for a big step forward. Even a 16 would put Hester above legitimate deep-threat receivers like Roddy White, Braylon Edwards, and Nate Washington. Larry Fitz, Randy Moss, and Santonio Holmes are all pretty serious big-play threats, and none of them even got to 15.0 YPC last season.

 

So while I agree that Hester's going to be a lot better, I just don't see him having a YPC that high. I'm thinking he'll be closer to Reggie-Wayne-good than to Calvin-Johnson-good.

[GreatScott82]

Biggest offensive possitive suprises: Eart Bennett and Kevin Jones

 

Biggest defensive possitive suprises: Tommie Harris and Nathan Vasher returns to old form.

 

Biggest team dissappointments: Hester continues to regress in special teams. The offensive line won't be as good as advertised.

 

 

My Chicago Bear Pro Bowlers:

 

Jay Cutler, Kruetz, Greg Olsen, Lance Briggs, Tommie Harris and Robbie Gould

 

NFC North records:

Bears 11-5

Vikings 10-6

Packers 10-6

Lions 4-12

 

(3 NFC North teams will make the playoffs)

 

The other 3 division winners will be: Atlanta (south), San Fransisco (west) and Philly (east)

 

Close calls: Dallas, NY, AZ, Tampa and New Orleans

[madlithuanian]

I'll hold off on the statistical categories... (I just reads someone's comments on the Trib and it stated, "Statistics are like bikinis. They show you a lot, but not the vital stuff". - That had me howlin'!)

 

Surprise: I'm going with Kevin Jones. I'm thinking that he'll put up some great tough yards spelling Forte. He may actually be a TD stealer for some of us fantasy nerds...

Letdown: Tommie Harris. I just fear he is done. Since I figured it had to be a player, I won't say "coaching"... Oops, I did say "coaching"!

 

I do see a potential 10-6/11-5 season. I think we make the playoffs regardless. I'm just not sure we take the division. It'll be far more competitive than i think we'd all like.

 

 

 

 

Just wanted to see who you guys think will lead some statistical categories. Here are mine:

 

TD receptions: Olsen (7)

Receptions: Hester (71)

Receiving Yards: Hester (1123)

Tackles: Briggs (149)

Sacks: Ogunleye (10.5)

Interceptions: Tillman (6)

Forced Fumbles: Tillman (7)

 

Biggest surprise: Ogunleye (special mention: Iglesias, Kevin Jones)

Biggest letdown: Vasher (special mention: Anderson [at this point, is him struggling even a letdown though?], Bennett)

 

Bears finish 11-5 and win the NFC with a 27-13 win at home vs Atlanta.

 

[nfoligno]

Okay, so 16 rather than 17. Still, I just think his ypc bump will end up more than 1 point.

 

I don't see him in Calvin Johnson's tier, but I do think he can be in the Greg Jennings/ Lee Evans range.

 

Honestly, I would go lower on catches before I drop my ypc prediction. I just can't see the logic in not bumping his ypc more. Everything simply points to his ypc taking a serious jump. Already mentioned Cutler vs Orton effect, leading to more deep completions and more RAC. I would also point out:

 

(a) W/ an improved OL, Hester will have more time to work downfield.

( Due to the OL/run game, Hester will have more freedom.

© W/ Olson, Bennett and Forte, Hester will be able to work downfield more.

(d) W/ a QB who can avoid the buy time in the pocket, while still looking downfield, Hester will have more freedom.

 

See the pattern? I get it when you show the stats of other players. At the same time, let me ask you this. Leading into Hester's rookie season, if someone predicted what he would do (or even close) you would likely have thrown out the stats of what other return men had done to show how, what he did end up doing, wasn't possible. Further, he was even better the next year. Point is, Hester has already defied the odds when it comes to stats.

 

I am not saying Hester will ever be a 100 catch, 1,700 yard, 15 TD WR. I do not think he will ever have the consistency in his game to be "that" sort of receiver. However, when talking about ypc average? I think his potential is ridiculous. Just think about his putting up 13 ypc w/ the situation he was in this past season. W/ so many changes, to me, I just feel his jumping to 15, 16 or yes, even 17 ypc is as likely, if not more, than any other prediction thrown out there. I think it more likely he ends up w/ only 50 catches, but for 17+ ypc (ala Vincent Jackson) rather than his having 70-80 catches but for only 14 ypc.

 

The thing to remember is that among receivers with significant playing time, YPC is very tightly grouped. A 14 is pretty high, a 12 is just OK, and a 10 is pretty low. As such, a one-yard bump is very significant. For example, among players with at least 30 receptions in 2008, Hester's 13.0 YPC put him at 43rd in the league. If he'd had a one-yard increase up to 14.0, that would have moved him all the way up to 29th, right around where Reggie Wayne was.

 

If Hester had a YPC of 16-17, that's another story entirely. Only 11 guys in the NFL managed a 16.0 or better on at least 30 catches. A YPC of 17.0 would put Hester right under Calvin Johnson, and significantly above guys like Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, and Lee Evans. That's a lot to expect from Hester, even if you think (as I do) that he's due for a big step forward. Even a 16 would put Hester above legitimate deep-threat receivers like Roddy White, Braylon Edwards, and Nate Washington. Larry Fitz, Randy Moss, and Santonio Holmes are all pretty serious big-play threats, and none of them even got to 15.0 YPC last season.

 

So while I agree that Hester's going to be a lot better, I just don't see him having a YPC that high. I'm thinking he'll be closer to Reggie-Wayne-good than to Calvin-Johnson-good.

 

 

[defiantgiant]

I don't see him in Calvin Johnson's tier, but I do think he can be in the Greg Jennings/ Lee Evans range.

 

I can see a Lee Evans-Devin Hester comparison. Evans and Hester both:

- are smaller guys (under 6'0" and under 200 lbs.)

- have great speed

- aren't great at getting off a jam

- aren't great red-zone threats

- typically line up at flanker

- play on teams that are built around the run

- are the only real threat at WR on their respective teams (until this offseason for Evans).

 

However, you could also say all those things about Santana Moss, and he had a very different stat line from what Evans had:

 

Evans 2008: 102 targets, 63 catches (61.8%) for 1017 yards (16.1 YPC) and 3 TDs

Moss 2008: 138 targets, 79 catches (57.2%) for 1044 yards (13.2 YPC) and 6 TDs

 

I like your fewer catches/higher YPC prediction, and I could definitely be convinced that Hester's 2009 would look something like Lee Evans' 2008. I'd hope that Hester would get into the end zone more often than Evans did, but other than that, I could see it. I wonder, however, if his season won't look a little more like Santana Moss' 2008. I think ultimately, Hester will probably fall somewhere between the two. It'll be interesting to see, though. As long as he puts up at least 900-1000 yards and a handful of scores, I'll be happy, regardless of how he does it.

 

If he were to put up numbers like Greg Jennings, though, I don't know what I'd do:

 

Jennings 2008: 125 targets, 80 catches (64%) for 1292 yards (16.2 YPC) and 9 TDs

 

Jennings got just about the same number of targets that I'm predicting Hester will get this season. If Hester can do as much with his as Jennings did with his, Darryl Drake's going to have a job for a very, very long time.

[nfoligno]

Just curious, but why throw Santana Moss into this? Moss was once a downfield threat, but his ypc over the last three years has been going down. Moss is more a slant and run, slashing WR than a downfield threat. His is a 30 year old veterans that has been in the league nearly a decade. I am just not sure of your reason for using him as a comparison.

 

I think Lee Evans is a much more similar comparison (as you point out). While they are similar in body type, they are also similar in how each plays.

 

I do agree though that if he puts up 900-1,000 yards, I will be pretty happy. That would see his 3 year development go from 300 to 650 to 950 (using avg between 900 and 1,000). That is about 300 yards improvement each year, which looks pretty good on paper, and would set up nicely for the following year. Especially when you consider his 1st season (300 yards) was really not much more than a gimick year, and it could be argued this last season was really his first as a WR. Thus, 2010 would mark his 3rd year. The year many WRs breakout.

 

As for the Gennings potential, I think he has the potential to match Gennings in terms of playmaking potential, but he has a ways to go on the consistency from IMHO. However, if he puts up 900+ yards this year, I would argue he is on a similar pace that Gennings took. Gennings had 600 his rookie year (which I would argue this past year was for Hester as a WR) and 920 his 2nd year. It was his 3rd season when he truly broke out w/ 1,200 (which shows that 300 yards per year bump we have been talking about for Hester too).

 

I can see a Lee Evans-Devin Hester comparison. Evans and Hester both:

- are smaller guys (under 6'0" and under 200 lbs.)

- have great speed

- aren't great at getting off a jam

- aren't great red-zone threats

- typically line up at flanker

- play on teams that are built around the run

- are the only real threat at WR on their respective teams (until this offseason for Evans).

 

However, you could also say all those things about Santana Moss, and he had a very different stat line from what Evans had:

 

Evans 2008: 102 targets, 63 catches (61.8%) for 1017 yards (16.1 YPC) and 3 TDs

Moss 2008: 138 targets, 79 catches (57.2%) for 1044 yards (13.2 YPC) and 6 TDs

 

I like your fewer catches/higher YPC prediction, and I could definitely be convinced that Hester's 2009 would look something like Lee Evans' 2008. I'd hope that Hester would get into the end zone more often than Evans did, but other than that, I could see it. I wonder, however, if his season won't look a little more like Santana Moss' 2008. I think ultimately, Hester will probably fall somewhere between the two. It'll be interesting to see, though. As long as he puts up at least 900-1000 yards and a handful of scores, I'll be happy, regardless of how he does it.

 

If he were to put up numbers like Greg Jennings, though, I don't know what I'd do:

 

Jennings 2008: 125 targets, 80 catches (64%) for 1292 yards (16.2 YPC) and 9 TDs

 

Jennings got just about the same number of targets that I'm predicting Hester will get this season. If Hester can do as much with his as Jennings did with his, Darryl Drake's going to have a job for a very, very long time.

 

[defiantgiant]

Just curious, but why throw Santana Moss into this? Moss was once a downfield threat, but his ypc over the last three years has been going down. Moss is more a slant and run, slashing WR than a downfield threat. His is a 30 year old veterans that has been in the league nearly a decade. I am just not sure of your reason for using him as a comparison.

 

I think Lee Evans is a much more similar comparison (as you point out). While they are similar in body type, they are also similar in how each plays.

 

Well, I basically included Moss because I'm not sure what kind of WR Hester's ultimately going to be. From what I've seen, Lee Evans is a purely downfield, outside-the-numbers receiver: he's about as well-rounded as Bernard Berrian, which is not very. By contrast, Moss is a much more complete receiver: he's less of a deep threat, but he's better than Evans at going over the middle and better on short slants/drags/etc, which he can then turn into some big plays. I'm just not sure which guy Hester's going to resemble more. I've seen a little bit of both, thus far.