Part of Pompei's article that bugs me

[nfoligno]

Pompei makes the argument that while Cutler has an incredible arm, he is also going to throw picks. In general, I agree w/ this. QBs w/ strong arms and aggressive instincts are simply put going to throw more picks. That is simply how it is. However, the idea is they will also throw more TDs, thus throwing (for example) one pick per game is not really that painful.

 

What bothers me though is more in his reasoning than his argument in general.

 

He makes the case that, to date, Cutler has played in 37 games and thrown a total of 37 interceptions. He then compares Cutler w/ Payton Manning and Tom Brady, and points out how Brady threw a pick every 42.4 throws and Manning every 36.1, compared to Cutler's average of 32.9.

 

What bothers me about this though is he is looking at two of the most polished veteran QBs in the NFL, and comparing a QB who has starting only 2 full seasons (plus 5 games as a rookie) against them. I did a quick check, and in his first 37 games, Manning threw 47 interceptions and Brady threw 33. So is Cutler's 37 really so bad in comparison?

 

Pompei seems to assume that a QB doesn't develop, and Cutler is doomed to always throw a lot of picks just because he threw interceptions in his first two years starting. Um, I think if Pompei were to do a little homework, he would see that most every QBs throws a lot of interceptions when starting out their career, but that does not necessarily mean they will throw a ton of picks for the rest of their careers.

 

 

[madlithuanian]

Agreed.

 

Must be a slow news day for the Trib!

 

Pompei makes the argument that while Cutler has an incredible arm, he is also going to throw picks. In general, I agree w/ this. QBs w/ strong arms and aggressive instincts are simply put going to throw more picks. That is simply how it is. However, the idea is they will also throw more TDs, thus throwing (for example) one pick per game is not really that painful.

 

What bothers me though is more in his reasoning than his argument in general.

 

He makes the case that, to date, Cutler has played in 37 games and thrown a total of 37 interceptions. He then compares Cutler w/ Payton Manning and Tom Brady, and points out how Brady threw a pick every 42.4 throws and Manning every 36.1, compared to Cutler's average of 32.9.

 

What bothers me about this though is he is looking at two of the most polished veteran QBs in the NFL, and comparing a QB who has starting only 2 full seasons (plus 5 games as a rookie) against them. I did a quick check, and in his first 37 games, Manning threw 47 interceptions and Brady threw 33. So is Cutler's 37 really so bad in comparison?

 

Pompei seems to assume that a QB doesn't develop, and Cutler is doomed to always throw a lot of picks just because he threw interceptions in his first two years starting. Um, I think if Pompei were to do a little homework, he would see that most every QBs throws a lot of interceptions when starting out their career, but that does not necessarily mean they will throw a ton of picks for the rest of their careers.

 

[CrackerDog]

I agree with you that Pompei's logic is flawed. Comparing Manning's third season the Cutlers provides evidence that they're similar statistically as far as picks at this stage of their careers. That said, my own eyes tell me Jay is a bit careless with the ball and I think his attitude toward his abilities will make it tough for him to ever not be careless. In a way, this is Brett Favre's mentality too. He'll drive you crazy with the bonehead throw but then squeeze one in where nobody thought possible. Manning isn't that way. He's much more cerebral in his approach to the game. Any comparison to Brady is simply dumb.

 

So with Cutler we'll always have a guy we know can win us a game but he'll also have frustrating plays/games as well. The term gunslinger gets thrown around a lot and I hate it, but Cutler is much more Favre than he is Manning/Brady.

[nfoligno]

Agreed. Like I said, it isn't that I necessarily disagree that Cutler is going to throw picks. It was w/ the reasoning and support Pompei used that I took exception too.

 

Farve seems to always be used as the goto comparison for a gunslinger mentality QB, but there is a reason for that, and I agree it is fairly apt here. Cutler and Farve are different in many stylistic ways, but in the agressive/gun slinger mentaility, they are pretty similar. Cutler has an absolute cannon for an arm, and he knows it. He believes he can make any throw and do anything w/ the ball. That sort of mentaility is going to lead to some extra turnovers. At the same time, I am not sure that he is going to be some 20+ interception guy. Further, I think he is going to be throwing more TDs, and thus some extra picks are not going to be as relevant.

 

Turnovers always hurt, but they hurt worse for teams that are not capable of making up for them. When you are a team lucky to score 10 or 14 points, a turnover can be decimating. When you are a team that has the potential to score any possession, turnovers are simply not as painful. They are simply something you live w/.

 

I agree with you that Pompei's logic is flawed. Comparing Manning's third season the Cutlers provides evidence that they're similar statistically as far as picks at this stage of their careers. That said, my own eyes tell me Jay is a bit careless with the ball and I think his attitude toward his abilities will make it tough for him to ever not be careless. In a way, this is Brett Favre's mentality too. He'll drive you crazy with the bonehead throw but then squeeze one in where nobody thought possible. Manning isn't that way. He's much more cerebral in his approach to the game. Any comparison to Brady is simply dumb.

 

So with Cutler we'll always have a guy we know can win us a game but he'll also have frustrating plays/games as well. The term gunslinger gets thrown around a lot and I hate it, but Cutler is much more Favre than he is Manning/Brady.

 

[Chitownhustla]

I'll take a gunslinger any day of the week, would i like Manning yes but after the last 24 qb's we have had i am tickled pink with a gunslinger like Cutler. He is going to win us alot more games then he will lose us. Perfect example Brett Farve. What was his record over the Bears, don't answer that i dont want to be reminded. Why anyone would write an article about Cutler in a negative light right now blows my mind away. Let the season start and then write your BS!

[adam]

Those are apples to oranges comparisons. You really can't compare guys like Manning, Brady, Brees with just stats. Same goes for Cutler.

 

Cutler's numbers actually show a couple of things on their own. Last year, 12 of his 18 INTs were thrown when Denver was behind. 8 INTs were thrown when Denver was 3rd and 6 or more. Now if he was throwing the most INTs on 1st Down, I would think that would be more alarming. That leads me to believe that some of his INT's were more situational and not necessarily his fault (trying to do too much, defense always postured against the pass).

 

He is still going to try to fit balls in when he is late, but a lot of times, those are risk and reward type plays. If he doesn't do that, the defense won't honor anything. That has been our problem for so long. Now we actually have a dangerous QB who is going to take risks. Will they always pay off? Nope, but the defense better be ready for them or they will get burned. Grossman actually had this going on for a couple of games, but eventually his skill caught up with him. Cutler's ceiling is so much higher. Just think if Cutler was our QB for the SB. I think we win easily. That is what we have to look forward to.

[adam]

Another interesting note is YAC for Cutler's receivers. You would think his receivers would be somewhat padding his yardage numbers with YAC. However, that is not the case.

 

2008 YAC

Marshall - 4.2

Royal - 3.9

Scheffler - 5.2

 

Now compare that to:

Hester - 4.2

Davis - 4.4

Olsen - 5.0

 

Our defense was the opposite of vertical last year, and our guys still had similar YAC to the Denver receivers. So I believe that his averages will be the same if not slightly better, but his gross numbers will be down this year.

[BearFan2000]

Turnovers always hurt, but they hurt worse for teams that are not capable of making up for them. When you are a team lucky to score 10 or 14 points, a turnover can be decimating. When you are a team that has the potential to score any possession, turnovers are simply not as painful. They are simply something you live w/.

 

couldn't agree more and that I think is part of the growing and adjustment we Bears fans will be making. For a long time now we have been a team that likes the low scoring close games because we've not had an offense that can keep up in a shootout or score a lot of points for the occasional turnover to not hurt us. Precisely the reason Orton was given the starting job over Rex we were looking for a game manager from our QB to do enough to win but not loose us the game. Our offensive approach was safe less risks vs more aggressive with more risks the result was a less exciting offense that didn't put up a lot of points but was aimed at not turning the ball over. A philosophy I and many of us have hated. That is why Rex excited so many of us when he was drafted and with what we saw early in 2006. We saw a glimpse of what it's like to have an offense that can win games and put teams away. And it's the reason many if not all of us are giddy about having Cutler here. With an offense that puts points on the board in increments larger than 3 with regularity is an offense that can make up for the occasional turnover this less of a concern.

 

Couple an offense that can put up points in bunches and a defense that is above average to great and you have a dangerous team. Jay is the first step into that brave new world

[selection7]

I'll take a gunslinger any day of the week,

We had a strong-armed gunslinger. His name was Rex. We need to ask for a little more than that. And there's not too many Brett Favre's out there who can make up for mistakes with freakish natural talent. IMO, learning to play smart is part of the job. Also, what happens (as has happened with Favre) when the arm gets injured? Chad Pennington has made a career out of figuring out how to win without arm strength, but a gimped Cutler would be starting from square one.

[CrackerDog]

We had a strong-armed gunslinger. His name was Rex. We need to ask for a little more than that. And there's not too many Brett Favre's out there who can make up for mistakes with freakish natural talent. IMO, learning to play smart is part of the job. Also, what happens (as has happened with Favre) when the arm gets injured? Chad Pennington has made a career out of figuring out how to win without arm strength, but a gimped Cutler would be starting from square one.

 

Rex was a gunslinger in a dress. His problem was he lost his swagger. Cutler doesn't look like a guy who will let a few bad plays get to him. Not to mention, as you said, Cutler's skills are better.

[BigDaddy]

Rex was a gunslinger in a dress. His problem was he lost his swagger. Cutler doesn't look like a guy who will let a few bad plays get to him. Not to mention, as you said, Cutler's skills are better.

 

Frankly, I stopped reading ALL articles on Cutler. Not a Gosh Damn one of them are objective so why bother. My take on the guy is, he stacks up very well against Manning, Brady and favre for his first two yrs as starter and that's some stiff competition, he was voted to the freakin pro bowl last year, he is better than what we had, so screw the Pompeis and every other hatchet man out there looking to make a story. I'll take Cutler, warts and all.

 

[Mongo3451]

Not to mention, as you said, Cutler's skills are better.

 

There is not one direct or intangible skill that Cutler is not better than Rex. Hands, arm, release, instincts, height, foot speed, footwork, anticipation, leadership etc...