Bear of a matchup

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Carson Palmer already called it a must game so the Bengals.com roundtable must have looked at the numbers to come up with a split decision to pick the 4-2 Bengals in Sunday’s 4:15 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium game against the 3-2 Bears.

 

Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 2-4 in their games before bye weeks. But under Lewis they are also 5-0 against the NFC North, 9-2-1 against the NFC at home, and have never been swept in back-to-back PBS games.

 

Big Bird gives the Bears the edge because of their terrific run defense. But The Sage and The Eye opt for the Bengals with The Sage giving Cincinnati the intangibles and The Eye leaning to the Bengals’ ability to block the Bears’ AFC North-like pressures.

 

“Even though I give a lot of the personnel edges to the Bears, I’m picking the Bengals, 28-24,” says The Sage, a former NFL player with double-digit years in the league. “The Bengals really need this one going into the bye. They can’t afford to lose it, they’re home and Marvin’s got the good record against the NFC North. But because they’re banged up on the defensive line, the offense has to carry them and it’s going to have to be a breakout game. I’m leaning to them.”

 

Big Bird, another former NFL player who played more than a decade in the league, calls it 23-20 for Chicago.

 

“I’m going off the tape of the Bears loss against Atlanta last week,” The Bird says. “I’ve got a lot of respect for Atlanta with Matt Ryan, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner. Their offense is playing a lot better than the Bengals right now and the Bears almost beat them. This is an excellent defense, a typical Lovie Smith defense that runs to the ball, doesn’t let you run and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes.”

 

The Eye, an NFL scout familiar with the AFC North, also sees a tight one, and gives it 24-21 to the Bengals.

 

“What the Bears do with their fronts and coverages looks more like the Texans,” The Eye says, “but they blitz a lot more than the Texans and like Baltimore and Pittsburgh their front seven covers up any weakness they may have in the back end.”

 

WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL

RB C. Benson vs. Bears WLB Lance Briggs

Benson

The Sage gives the nod to Benson because “he’ll be more upset than the other guys. I hope he doesn’t let himself get so jacked up that he plays out of control.” Benson will also have to see Briggs on the blitz because the Bears send him and as Big Bird says, “he’s athletic, tough as hell, fast. I’m going to have to give this one to Briggs.”

 

Bengals offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski liked the way the line moved the Houston linemen last week, but the linebackers, he felt, were the key to bottling up the run. Benson is going to have to make Briggs and company miss on occasion, but he can’t do it by himself.

 

“If Ced is going to have a big day he’s going to need help from a lot of people,” The Sage says. “The fullback. The tight ends. They’ve got to get off the linemen and get to the next level.”

 

“I’ve got a buddy who plays for the Bears,” Bird says. “And they think he’s a good player. But they’re not worried about him.”

 

But Benson is just what the doctor ordered in a grudge game like this one. He’s physical and already has a big game against a good run defense with a 100-yard day in a win over the Ravens. And, The Sage says, “they didn’t run it well last week and I think they’re going to come out and try to do it.”

 

QB C. Palmer vs. Bears QB Jay Cutler

Palmer

If his receivers caught the five dropped balls last week, Palmer would have had more than 300 yards passing on about an 80 percent completion percentage with a through-the-roof passer rating. Now his numbers look average, but his receivers have been below average catching the ball.

 

“I give Cutler the advantage because I think he’s going to get more chances to throw it downfield, but I think Carson is more talented,” The Sage says. “Jay is going to take more chances and this game is going to come down to which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes. I just think Carson is going to get more pressure than Cutler because the Bears have two or three good ends and the Bengals are hurting on the defensive line and are going to struggle getting a pass rush.

 

“Plus, Cutler has two really good tight ends (Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark) and his tight ends are killing Carson with drops. That’s why T.J. (Houshmandzadeh) was so good. People don’t want to hear it, but he made tough catches and that’s what they’re missing. You can’t drop the ball against this defense.”

 

The Eye thinks Palmer is going to see what he sees against the Ravens and Steelers when his guys pick up the blitz. “Their safeties are good, but I think the Bengals receivers can beat the DBs one-on-one.”

 

RT D. Roland vs. Bears LE Adewale Ogunleye

Roland

The Bengals tackles got well deserved praise for shutting out Mario Williams last week and only allowing one sack. Roland gave up Connor Barwin’s first NFL sack, but he got good reviews and he’ll need another solid effort because Ogunleye is headed to double-digit sacks with 4.5 already.

 

(Ogunleye is the guy that roughed up the Packers the week before Antwan Odom got a hold of them.)

 

“He’s been solid. He hasn’t been a liability and they give him some help,” The Sage says of Roland. “He’s so tall (6-9), but he’s also so big to get around. I think they’ve done a good job protecting Carson.

 

“But they’ve got a problem on the edge this week because Ogunleye is a craftier guy than Mario and they throw three or four ends at you. Alex Brown is a good player on the other side, but I don’t think (Andrew Whitworth) will have trouble there. But they’ve got Mark Anderson who had (12 sacks) as a rookie.”

 

RG B. Williams and LG E. Mathis vs. Bears DTs Marcus Harrison and Anthony Adams

Williams

This is a battle The Table feels the Bengals can and must win. Tommie Harris, who hasn’t been as effective since his Pro Bowl run, is out with his recurring knee problem and Harrison is getting his first start at under tackle after getting his first NFL start last week.

 

“The Bengals are going go to have to run the ball,” Big Bird says. “The Bears play out of the Belichick-Mangini school. They’re not going to sell out the house and leave the corners out there. They go Cover 2, Cover 4, and the Bengals seem to have trouble with that. With those penalties, the third-and-longs, the first-and-longs, and then the drops, it gets old. They have to run it and these guys are tough to run on. The backers get right up in the gaps.”

 

P K. Huber vs. Bears PR Devin Hester

Huber

Hester hasn’t returned a punt or a kick for a touchdown since 2007, but that does not impress the Bengals. That’s only because he’s playing more wide receiver and he’s still the same guy that returned 11 kicks or punts for TDs his first two seasons in the league.

 

The Bengals are worried about this one after starting the month nearly losing the game in Cleveland to the punt returns of Josh Cribbs. Hester has the big speed, but he also can juke and explode out of cuts and Huber has to make sure he gets nothing in the middle of the field. Take the shank, but get it out of bounds.

 

“And he can’t outkick his coverage, either,” Big Bird says. “Tough game for a rookie. If he gets it in the middle of the field or if he kicks it too far, I guarantee you the scoreboard will be lighting up.”

 

But Huber has been good since Cleveland getting it to the sidelines and he did a fine job last week keeping Houston’s top 10 return team in check.

 

 

WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL

LT Orlando Pace vs. Bengals RE J. Fanene

Fanene

Fanene makes his first start in place of the injured Odom and his condition is already in doubt after missing Thursday and Friday with an illness. Where do the Bengals get Odom’s eight sacks?

 

“Losing Odom is tough because it’s like losing two guys because he would be a presence against the run on first and second down and then go inside and rush the passer on third down at tackle,” The Sage says. “Guys like Fanene and Frostee Rucker are good, solid players and have been productive when they’ve played. But now instead of playing just 15 snaps it’s going to be closer to 50.”

 

The Eye thinks Pace is showing signs of aging and slowing up, but while Fanene is a solid, all-out effort guy, “he’s not guy like Odom that can exploit that,” he says.

 

DTs T. Johnson and P. Sims vs. Bears Gs Frank Omiyale and Roberto Garza

Johnson

Domata Peko (knee) is probable, so we’ll see how The Hurting Trio respond in another matchup The Table thinks the Bengals can and need to win.

 

“The Falcons tackles spent a lot of time in the backfield last week pushing back the guards,” The Eye says and The Sage adds, “They need to get pressure from the inside. They need to disrupt Cutler or else he’ll carve you up. Tank is hurt, but this is the kind of game they need to get something out of him.”

 

Johnson, booted by the Bears because of a plethora of off-field problems earlier in his career, doesn’t have a sack yet. This would be the time.

 

TEs Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark vs. Bengals FS C. Crocker

Crocker

Missed assignments and poor coverage by the linebackers and safeties last week allowed Texans tight end Owen Daniels to score two red-zone TDs, and one was wide open when the backers took their eyes off him when he started the play blocking.

 

Can’t have that this week. Olsen is good enough to be split out as a receiver and The Eye notes when it was fourth-and-six last week and the Bears needed the play to win, both Olsen and Clark were on the field.

 

“How will they play Olsen?” The Eye asks. “When the Packers played them and the Bears went double tight end they still stayed in their nickel package and covered him like a wide receiver.”

 

“That’s a tough matchup,” The Sage says. “The Bears have got a lot of speed on the outside. They’re going to make you cover five guys and it’s tough to find five guys that can cover.”

 

WRs Johnny Knox and Devin Hester vs. Bengals CBs L. Hall and J. Joseph

Hall

Speed, speed, speed.

 

Boy, one game can make the experts touchy. Big Bird, who was in love with the Bengals secondary two weeks ago, says they’ve got to play a lot better.

 

“I think this thing about shutting down their best receivers, I don’t know,” he says. “You can’t give up big plays and these guys are fast.”

 

Fast? Hester is in a sprint to the Pro Bowl every year and Knox, a rookie, was the fastest player at the combine and leads the league in kick returns.

 

Scary? The Bengals defense leads the league in giving up plays of 20 yards. And if Knox wasn’t the fastest guy at the combine, the Steelers’ Mike Wallace was and he’s already got a 51-yard catch against the Bengals.

 

“That’s why they have to get to Cutler,” The Sage says. “The corners can only do so much against that speed.”