Trade Hester

[AZ54]

A year ago, perhaps two, there was a thread where someone proposed trading Hester. I think it was after his second season when he was about to set all sorts of records on KR/PR. At the time I was against it because I figured he was a marquee player and if the WR experiment didn't work out he'd at least be an elite PR/KR. Two years later I'm throwing that out the window. I see a team in need of a lot of rebuilding, not a total rebuild but definitely in need of some cornerstone players.

Those players are only going to arrive in one of three ways: High draft picks, FA, or dumb luck.

 

Why trade Hester? He's still a huge name around the league and will command top compensation. As a PR/KR he is no longer what he used to be. Quite simply, he runs scared and he's just not as quick and fast as he used to be. As a WR I've seen enough to know he'll never be what Steve Smith was at his best. I can see Hester being a 1,000 yard WR in a good system, even making some big plays for a team but I don't see him ever being a #1 as Lovie says he is, not a #1 who can overcome double teams to succeed. Hester just doesn't have that desire to go get the ball that really good WR have.

 

If I think he can contribute that much why trade him? We can trade him because we have his replacement on the roster...Johnny Knox. In his first season Knox has shown me more natural WR instincts than I've ever seen in Hester. Clearly Knox has had his mistakes this year but he still appears to be getting better each game. As a KR and PR Knox is at least equally as effective as Hester, I think he's better because he's more aggresive when he runs. Hester is a smaller WR, Knox is bigger and in a year or two should have more strength and fare better against press coverage than Hester does today. Bennett is also not that big and appears to be headed toward a career as a good #2 or #3 WR. I think we need a bigger WR on the field as a complement to the smaller quicker guys and that guy isn't Greg Olsen. DA is still somewhat unknown but has shown some flashes enough that he needs to get on the field a lot these last few games. As it is today I'm not sure the trio of Knox, Bennett, DA won't be as productive as Hester, Bennett, Knox. Hopefully we'll have a better idea of that at the end of the season.

 

In exchange for Hester I think we can get a minimum of a first round pick and depending on where that pick was very likely another high pick (perhaps a 3rd). I'd be going after Oline with that 1st Rd pick. JA (or new GM) could trade one of the thirds (plus later picks) to get back into the 2nd Rd and I'd probably grab another Oline player with that one too.

 

Salary cap is another reason. I don't recall the numbers on his contract but if we cut Hester and Tommie Harris we clear out even more space, money that can be spent on key FA to help this team get back to the top quickly.

 

 

 

 

[Connorbear]

I agree with your basic premise. I actually proposed this 2 weeks ago for the same reason - Knox is essentially the same player in his first year. However, I disagree on the compensation we will get. I think the most we will get is a #2 which I would take in a heartbeat. No way do we get a #1 plus another pick. Heck, Randy Moss was traded for a 4th. Now I know he was a complete turd in Oakland but he was still a top receiver in the league.

 

Peace

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I probably wasn't the first but I do recall making a comment about trading Hester shortly after he had some sort of knee injury (appeared to be minor) and he was sitting on the sideline pouting for some reason. I recall being frustrated with his attitude and said he needed to quit snivling and get on the field. I can't exactly recollect but it seems it was either right before or after the Bears had discussed upping his pay and some mention of a holdout had come around. My thought at the time was trade him while "the iron was hot". He hadn't yet started the morph to WR and had viable commodity. Now and a few years removed from his WOW days he is much more the "average" player. Yes the Bears do have a new X factor in Knox but I don't think Hester has the value he once had. If the Bears were lucky they might be able to swing for a third rounder or late second rounder.

[defiantgiant]

Why trade Hester? He's still a huge name around the league and will command top compensation.

No he isn't, and no he won't. He was an all-world return man two years ago, but that is a low, low value position. Teams can pick up UDFAs and turn them into excellent return men. Look at Clifton Smith (UDFA, Pro Bowl returner last year) and Stefan Logan (CFL player, excellent returner this year.) Of returners with at least 10 returns, the guys leading the league right now are Bernard Scott, Sammie Stroughter, and Johnny Knox. That's a 6th, a 7th, and a 5th-round pick, and they're all rookies. You don't need to spend a high draft pick on a returner, and Hester's taken a huge step back in that regard. And he's still a project as a receiver. Why would he command top compensation? Because of some things he did two years ago that he's demonstrated he can't do any more? Because people know his name?

 

If I think he can contribute that much why trade him? We can trade him because we have his replacement on the roster...Johnny Knox. In his first season Knox has shown me more natural WR instincts than I've ever seen in Hester. Clearly Knox has had his mistakes this year but he still appears to be getting better each game. As a KR and PR Knox is at least equally as effective as Hester, I think he's better because he's more aggresive when he runs.

Sorry dude, this just isn't true. Knox is definitely improving, but he's not even close to being Hester's replacement. First, they don't play the same position. Hester plays flanker, and Knox only plays split end (Bennett's position.) The coaching staff specifically limited him to about half the playbook at that one position because they didn't think he could make the adjustment from Abilene Christian to the NFL otherwise. There's no telling how long it would take him to scrap all that and learn to play flanker. Second, Knox's catch percentage and YPC are much, much worse than Hester's, and those stats typically go down when a guy gets a starting job and becomes a bigger part of the defense's game plan. I'm not saying Knox isn't a good prospect for down the line, but the guy's broken 50 yards receiving twice in 12 games, and you think he's ready to step in as the #1 now?

 

Hester is a smaller WR, Knox is bigger and in a year or two should have more strength and fare better against press coverage than Hester does today. Bennett is also not that big and appears to be headed toward a career as a good #2 or #3 WR.

Knox isn't bigger, he's skinnier than Hester or Bennett by a good bit.

Bennett: 6'0" 205 pounds

Hester: 5'11" 195 pounds

Knox: 6'0" 185 pounds.

 

In exchange for Hester I think we can get a minimum of a first round pick and depending on where that pick was very likely another high pick (perhaps a 3rd).

You've got to be kidding. Why would anybody in their right mind give up a first and a third for Hester? If you wanted a receiver, you could spend that first on Dez Bryant, Brandon LaFell, or Arrelious Benn if he declares. Or you could trade it for a non-project receiver: I have no doubt whatsoever that Marshall or Boldin would be available for less than that, and Dwayne Bowe might be available for a 1st as well. If you want a return man, you could pick up Trindon Holliday from LSU in like the 5th round: he's arguably the fastest guy playing football at any level, and he's certainly a better kick returner than 2009 Hester is. Why would anybody spend a 1st and a 3rd on Hester when you could have a better receiver AND a better returner for less?

[nfoligno]

Agreed all around.

 

One. Knox does not play Hester's position. I can understand the argument that, Knox has developed quickly for a rookie, and thus someone might argue he can more quickly develop into the role Hester plays, but Knox has not played Hester's position and has not shown he can. Regardless, a team needs multiple WRs, and I just question trading a WR right now.

 

Two. As you said, Knox is not bigger. That is simply wrong.

 

Three. No way we get a 1st, much less a 1st and 3rd. Honestly, I think a 3rd would be about as much as we could hope for, and I am not even sure we get that. As a return man, it has been a while since Hester showed that great ability, and I am not sure whether coahes around the league believe he still can. As a WR, there is a lot more skepticism than optimisim on Hester. I just do not see anyone giving that much for him.

 

The window to trade Hester is closed. There was a time his value was high, and he may have warranted a nice value in return (though I don't think we ever would have gotten a 1st and 3rd). Now? His market value is way down. He has shown nothing as a returner. All you have to do is watch teams punt right to him w/o fear. As a WR, again, watch how few teams feel the need to double team him. If he were a value close to what has been proposed, teams would not kick to him and would double team him.

 

Sorry, but while it isn't that I think we can't afford to trade Hester, I just don't see the value.

 

No he isn't, and no he won't. He was an all-world return man two years ago, but that is a low, low value position. Teams can pick up UDFAs and turn them into excellent return men. Look at Clifton Smith (UDFA, Pro Bowl returner last year) and Stefan Logan (CFL player, excellent returner this year.) Of returners with at least 10 returns, the guys leading the league right now are Bernard Scott, Sammie Stroughter, and Johnny Knox. That's a 6th, a 7th, and a 5th-round pick, and they're all rookies. You don't need to spend a high draft pick on a returner, and Hester's taken a huge step back in that regard. And he's still a project as a receiver. Why would he command top compensation? Because of some things he did two years ago that he's demonstrated he can't do any more? Because people know his name?

 

 

Sorry dude, this just isn't true. Knox is definitely improving, but he's not even close to being Hester's replacement. First, they don't play the same position. Hester plays flanker, and Knox only plays split end (Bennett's position.) The coaching staff specifically limited him to about half the playbook at that one position because they didn't think he could make the adjustment from Abilene Christian to the NFL otherwise. There's no telling how long it would take him to scrap all that and learn to play flanker. Second, Knox's catch percentage and YPC are much, much worse than Hester's, and those stats typically go down when a guy gets a starting job and becomes a bigger part of the defense's game plan. I'm not saying Knox isn't a good prospect for down the line, but the guy's broken 50 yards receiving twice in 12 games, and you think he's ready to step in as the #1 now?

 

 

Knox isn't bigger, he's skinnier than Hester or Bennett by a good bit.

Bennett: 6'0" 205 pounds

Hester: 5'11" 195 pounds

Knox: 6'0" 185 pounds.

 

 

You've got to be kidding. Why would anybody in their right mind give up a first and a third for Hester? If you wanted a receiver, you could spend that first on Dez Bryant, Brandon LaFell, or Arrelious Benn if he declares. Or you could trade it for a non-project receiver: I have no doubt whatsoever that Marshall or Boldin would be available for less than that, and Dwayne Bowe might be available for a 1st as well. If you want a return man, you could pick up Trindon Holliday from LSU in like the 5th round: he's arguably the fastest guy playing football at any level, and he's certainly a better kick returner than 2009 Hester is. Why would anybody spend a 1st and a 3rd on Hester when you could have a better receiver AND a better returner for less?

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I agree with your basic premise. I actually proposed this 2 weeks ago for the same reason - Knox is essentially the same player in his first year. However, I disagree on the compensation we will get. I think the most we will get is a #2 which I would take in a heartbeat. No way do we get a #1 plus another pick. Heck, Randy Moss was traded for a 4th. Now I know he was a complete turd in Oakland but he was still a top receiver in the league.

 

Peace

 

I was for the trade than and I'd be for it now. He isn't a special player. And given our needs if someone else paid the price of a special player than we'd be stupid not to accept such offer.

[madlithuanian]

I 3rd that...

[defiantgiant]

I was for the trade than and I'd be for it now. He isn't a special player. And given our needs if someone else paid the price of a special player than we'd be stupid not to accept such offer.

That's a different argument. If we're assuming (against all the evidence) that somebody out there is going to offer way more value than Hester is worth, then yeah, we'd need to take it. The same way that if somebody pulled a Ricky Williams and offered their whole draft for Forte, or gave us Larry Fitz for Lance Briggs straight up, we'd need to take that. I'd trade just about anyone if somebody offers way, way too much for them. But there's no reason to think someone's going to do that for Hester, unless they haven't watched football since the opening kickoff of Super Bowl XLI.

 

If we're talking about trading guys for their fair value, and only from positions where we can replace them, I'd be looking to deal Alex Brown and either Nick Roach or Jamar Williams (if we can showcase him some for the rest of the season.) They won't bring huge compensation, but we could probably get a late 3rd for one of the OLBs. Then we could probably get a 3rd and a 5th for Brown. It'd take some nice drafting (good luck getting that from Angelo) but we could fill a fair number of holes with three 3rds. In this year's draft, that could be:

3rd (Brown): Jon Asamoah, LG, Illinois or Mike Johnson, LG, Alabama

3rd (original): Micah Johnson, MLB, Kentucky

3rd (Roach/Williams): Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri or Kyle Calloway, RT, Iowa

...that'd shore up a lot of our problems on offense, give us a big hard-hitting Mike 'backer to develop behind Urlacher (or step in if he gets hurt again,) and we'd have 5 picks on Day 2.

[nfoligno]

A 3rd for Roach? A 3rd for Williams? A 3rd and 5th for Brown?

 

Sorry, but while not as bad as the Hester talk, I think you are seriously over-valuing our players.

 

Roach is a backup, who has been able to start some games, but frankly has never been the impressive. I believe you said we can use a 3rd to replace him, and I agree, but would point out most teams would believe the same too. They can use their own 3rd, and likely get a better player than Roach.

 

Williams has been a backup for years. Yea, he just had a great game, against an awful team, but a 3rd? I honestly don't know if Williams would have much of any value. Yea, you and I can talk about his potential, but teams don't give up 3rd round picks for a guy who, after being drafted at the end of the 3rd, has really done nothing.

 

Brown. A 3rd and a 5th? Brown is part of a DL that can't rush the passer. Brown isn't bad. In fact, he is a decent enough DE. He plays well enough against the run, and might get you about 6 sacks. Sorry, I just can't see teams giving up so much for a player like this.

 

I would also point out that if you trade Brown, you now have not one, but both starting DEs positions to fill.

 

If our players were good enough to warrant the values I am seeing in these trade talks, maybe we wouldn't suck and wouldn't need to trade everyone away.

 

I'm sorry, but there just isn't that much on the roster right now to warrant the trade talks.

 

That's a different argument. If we're assuming (against all the evidence) that somebody out there is going to offer way more value than Hester is worth, then yeah, we'd need to take it. The same way that if somebody pulled a Ricky Williams and offered their whole draft for Forte, or gave us Larry Fitz for Lance Briggs straight up, we'd need to take that. I'd trade just about anyone if somebody offers way, way too much for them. But there's no reason to think someone's going to do that for Hester, unless they haven't watched football since the opening kickoff of Super Bowl XLI.

 

If we're talking about trading guys for their fair value, and only from positions where we can replace them, I'd be looking to deal Alex Brown and either Nick Roach or Jamar Williams (if we can showcase him some for the rest of the season.) They won't bring huge compensation, but we could probably get a late 3rd for one of the OLBs. Then we could probably get a 3rd and a 5th for Brown. It'd take some nice drafting (good luck getting that from Angelo) but we could fill a fair number of holes with three 3rds. In this year's draft, that could be:

3rd (Brown): Jon Asamoah, LG, Illinois or Mike Johnson, LG, Alabama

3rd (original): Micah Johnson, MLB, Kentucky

3rd (Roach/Williams): Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri or Kyle Calloway, RT, Iowa

...that'd shore up a lot of our problems on offense, give us a big hard-hitting Mike 'backer to develop behind Urlacher (or step in if he gets hurt again,) and we'd have 5 picks on Day 2.

 

[defiantgiant]

I'll admit that a 3rd for one of our OLBs is a little optimistic, but I don't think it's crazy: I could see a team like the Rams giving up a 3rd in exchange for Roach plus a 5th - I mean, they're starting Paris Lenon right now. Roach is a solid-but-unspectacular kind of player, but he's young and he's a proven commodity: if you draft an OLB in the 3rd round, you're not guaranteed to get a guy who can step right in and help your team.

 

As for the DEs, I really do think we could get a 3rd and a 5th for Alex Brown; Derrick Burgess went to the Patriots for a 3rd and a 5th. Burgess is about as undersized as Brown, worse against the run, has been less productive the past few seasons, and he's a year older and dinged up.

 

As far as Brown's replacement, there are a couple of options: they could move Gilbert to DE, or they could play Adams at RDE and then either resign Wale on the cheap or play Idonije at end full-time. I mean, Angelo shouldn't have done the Adams trade, but we're stuck with it now, and the team has got to get some draft picks somehow if they want to be any good before 2011. DE and OLB are the only positions where we're deep enough to deal somebody without having to turn around and draft his replacement. Dealing Brown would mean we'd get worse at DE, for sure, but DE is one of two spots where we can afford to have a little dropoff in exchange for an upgrade somewhere else.

[madlithuanian]

I think you're crazy thinking Williams, Roach or Hilly would garnish a 3rd from any NFL GM. That is unless JA is fired, hired by some other team, and then would offer up a 3rd... Why would the Rams want one of our OK guys, when they can spin the wheel and try to get a gem in the rough in the 3rd themselves? Hilly's too old, Roach has only proven to be decent and Williams has looked good in one game where he admitted to most the plays just funnelling to him. I just don't see it.

 

The Rams don't need immediate help at LB, they need an offense other than RB. There are teams that would be interested in those guys, but not for a 3rd...

 

I'll admit that a 3rd for one of our OLBs is a little optimistic, but I don't think it's crazy: I could see a team like the Rams giving up a 3rd in exchange for Roach plus a 5th - I mean, they're starting Paris Lenon right now. Roach is a solid-but-unspectacular kind of player, but he's young and he's a proven commodity: if you draft an OLB in the 3rd round, you're not guaranteed to get a guy who can step right in and help your team.

 

[nfoligno]

I'll admit that a 3rd for one of our OLBs is a little optimistic, but I don't think it's crazy: I could see a team like the Rams giving up a 3rd in exchange for Roach plus a 5th - I mean, they're starting Paris Lenon right now. Roach is a solid-but-unspectacular kind of player, but he's young and he's a proven commodity: if you draft an OLB in the 3rd round, you're not guaranteed to get a guy who can step right in and help your team.

 

As for the DEs, I really do think we could get a 3rd and a 5th for Alex Brown; Derrick Burgess went to the Patriots for a 3rd and a 5th. Burgess is about as undersized as Brown, worse against the run, has been less productive the past few seasons, and he's a year older and dinged up.

 

Sorry, but I think a 3rd for our OLBs is far closer to crazy than just a little optimistic. If we were to trade a 3rd for a player like Roach, I think you would go nuts. They may not have much, but Roach is of such average talent that I think most teams would just as soon go the draft route. In the draft, there is a pretty good chance you get a player at least as good as Roach, while also having a chance for a far better player.

 

As for Brown, sorry, but still not buying. You mention Burgess, but I would use him as an example why Brown's value just isn't near what you think. Burgess had had seasons w/ 16, 11 and 8 sacks. Brown's best year was 7, and he has averaged around 5 in the last 3 years. Players w/ double digit sack potential are always over-valued, and teams will take more chances on such a player. A player like Brown, who is decent vs the run, and pretty average (at best) against the pass, simply are not going to command as much value.

 

To put Brown in perspective for a moment, consider Phillip Daniels. He was always very good vs the run, but few Bear fans thought much of him as a pass rusher, but Daniels had 3 seasons w/ more sacks than Brown (8, 9 and 9). If we gave up a 3rd and 5th for Daniels when he was 31, how exactly would you feel?

 

As far as Brown's replacement, there are a couple of options: they could move Gilbert to DE, or they could play Adams at RDE and then either resign Wale on the cheap or play Idonije at end full-time. I mean, Angelo shouldn't have done the Adams trade, but we're stuck with it now, and the team has got to get some draft picks somehow if they want to be any good before 2011. DE and OLB are the only positions where we're deep enough to deal somebody without having to turn around and draft his replacement. Dealing Brown would mean we'd get worse at DE, for sure, but DE is one of two spots where we can afford to have a little dropoff in exchange for an upgrade somewhere else.

 

I just view this as taking a step backward as much as anything else. We have a lot of work to do on defense, and I agree we could really use some extra picks to do that with. At the same time, I question the logic of giving up some of the very few players we do have who are solid starters in order to get a pick (or even two). Angelo's history suggests we are not likely to get better value w/ a 3rd round pick than we already have in Brown, even if we could get a 3rd, which I do not believe is the case.

 

 

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

I was completely ripped to shreds for the thread I made. Yes, it was me who made it. I was told that you don't trade the most explosive, most dangerous player ever. I was told he was only 23 and he's going to keep getting more and more. I was told they'd start kicking it out of bounds thus getting great field position.

 

***

 

Did that ever happen? No. At the time, we could've gotten a 1st and a 2nd round pick for him. But no, we needed his PR/KR explosiveness and his youth. Now, we'd be lucky to get a 3rd for the guy.

 

With how far he's come as a WR, he'll be a Bear for awhile. That's the way JA does it- barely develop any players, but when you do, keep him around.

[madlithuanian]

You're right...but also omit some very important details.

 

(...and yes, for a while teams were kicking out of bounds and away)

 

Had this staff left well enough alone, and kept Hester returning kicks and kickoffs and threw him in once in a while, I feel he'd still be one of the top return men today. Instead, they've practically neutered him.

 

And seriously, do you think JA would have used the additional pick correctly? Or would it be one of many in a long line of busts for him?

 

We'll never know.

 

If we had better people running the show, I'd say it was something that probably should have been done. Giving the clowns running the circus, I'm not sure it would have mattered.

 

Agreed, that at his point, he is what he is. A decent #2 WR. Unfortunate that this staff turned platinum into silver... Oddly enough, similar seems to be happening to Cutler. Trends...

 

I was completely ripped to shreds for the thread I made. Yes, it was me who made it. I was told that you don't trade the most explosive, most dangerous player ever. I was told he was only 23 and he's going to keep getting more and more. I was told they'd start kicking it out of bounds thus getting great field position.

 

***

 

Did that ever happen? No. At the time, we could've gotten a 1st and a 2nd round pick for him. But no, we needed his PR/KR explosiveness and his youth. Now, we'd be lucky to get a 3rd for the guy.

 

With how far he's come as a WR, he'll be a Bear for awhile. That's the way JA does it- barely develop any players, but when you do, keep him around.

 

[defiantgiant]

Sorry, but I think a 3rd for our OLBs is far closer to crazy than just a little optimistic. If we were to trade a 3rd for a player like Roach, I think you would go nuts. They may not have much, but Roach is of such average talent that I think most teams would just as soon go the draft route. In the draft, there is a pretty good chance you get a player at least as good as Roach, while also having a chance for a far better player.

Yeah, I guess I wouldn't want us dealing a 3rd for somebody like Roach. I do think we could get some value for one of the OLBs, though and we've got to deal from any position that we can afford to.

 

As for Brown, sorry, but still not buying. You mention Burgess, but I would use him as an example why Brown's value just isn't near what you think. Burgess had had seasons w/ 16, 11 and 8 sacks. Brown's best year was 7, and he has averaged around 5 in the last 3 years. Players w/ double digit sack potential are always over-valued, and teams will take more chances on such a player. A player like Brown, who is decent vs the run, and pretty average (at best) against the pass, simply are not going to command as much value.

Those seasons were a long time ago. Burgess did nothing in 2001-2004, had two good years in 2005-2006, then one OK season in 2007, then has done nothing since. I'll give you that Burgess might be overvalued had he been coming off those seasons, but several years later he was still worth a 3rd and a 5th. I think we could definitely get a deal like that done for Brown.

 

I just view this as taking a step backward as much as anything else. We have a lot of work to do on defense, and I agree we could really use some extra picks to do that with. At the same time, I question the logic of giving up some of the very few players we do have who are solid starters in order to get a pick (or even two). Angelo's history suggests we are not likely to get better value w/ a 3rd round pick than we already have in Brown, even if we could get a 3rd, which I do not believe is the case.

I totally agree, it would be taking a step back at that position. But we can afford to take a step back at DE, and we desperately need the help elsewhere. If this were an ordinary year, I'd be singing a different tune, but this is shaping up to be one of the worst free-agency years in memory, unless a new CBA miraculously gets done. We can't count on filling those holes in free agency; we need draft picks.

[DrunkBomber]

A first and a third for Hester lol...sure sign me up

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

A first and a third for Hester lol...sure sign me up

2 years ago that was possible. Now? We'd be lucky to get a 3rd straight up.

[defiantgiant]

2 years ago that was possible. Now? We'd be lucky to get a 3rd straight up.

Yeah, pretty much. Hester's 27, still learning his position, and isn't an all-world returner any more. Not to mention the fact that he's our best receiver, and the dropoff is pretty steep after him. I still think he can be good for Chicago, but he's got more value to us right now than he would to any other team. Really, we need a big jump-ball possession receiver to take some attention away from Hester and make life easier for Cutler. Maybe Olsen can still be that, maybe we go get Kevin Walter from the Texans in FA, or maybe we need to go back to the draft for somebody like Danario Alexander (or Julio Jones/AJ Green, if we wait until next year.) Either way, Hester's a guy we need to keep developing and build around, not trade away.

[Connorbear]

Yeah, pretty much. Hester's 27, still learning his position, and isn't an all-world returner any more. Not to mention the fact that he's our best receiver, and the dropoff is pretty steep after him. I still think he can be good for Chicago, but he's got more value to us right now than he would to any other team. Really, we need a big jump-ball possession receiver to take some attention away from Hester and make life easier for Cutler. Maybe Olsen can still be that, maybe we go get Kevin Walter from the Texans in FA, or maybe we need to go back to the draft for somebody like Danario Alexander (or Julio Jones/AJ Green, if we wait until next year.) Either way, Hester's a guy we need to keep developing and build around, not trade away.

Olsen is 6'4" and Davis is 6'7". Both have speed for their position and both should be able to beat safeties or LBs 90% of the time. We have other serious pressing needs to address before we look to getting another receiver. Develop the receivers we have on the roster right now and take advantage of the mismatches we have at TE.

 

Peace

[nfoligno]

Yeah, I guess I wouldn't want us dealing a 3rd for somebody like Roach. I do think we could get some value for one of the OLBs, though and we've got to deal from any position that we can afford to.

 

I think Williams might have more value than Roach as he carries a bit of an unknown factor. When he has had a chance, he has looked good, but playing behind Briggs, has seen few chances. Roach has been seen, and frankly, is average at best. You can find a player Roach's tier in FA pretty easily, w/o giving up a thing.

 

Thats just the thing. Even w/ an "iffy" FA this year, players like Williams and Roach are simply not of such level that you can't get one if FA on the cheap.

 

Those seasons were a long time ago. Burgess did nothing in 2001-2004, had two good years in 2005-2006, then one OK season in 2007, then has done nothing since. I'll give you that Burgess might be overvalued had he been coming off those seasons, but several years later he was still worth a 3rd and a 5th. I think we could definitely get a deal like that done for Brown.

 

But my point on Burgess vs Brown is, when has Brown ever shown he can be that double digit pass rusher. I mean, you talk about Burgess having a "OK" season in '07, but he still had more sacks than Brown posts EVER. Brown has value to us, but when it comes to his value around the league, I just don't see it as being that high.

 

At one point, I think you mentioned maybe re-signing Wale on the cheap if we trade Brown. If you are the GM of another team, would you not rather just sign Wale in FA rather than trade for Brown?

 

I totally agree, it would be taking a step back at that position. But we can afford to take a step back at DE, and we desperately need the help elsewhere. If this were an ordinary year, I'd be singing a different tune, but this is shaping up to be one of the worst free-agency years in memory, unless a new CBA miraculously gets done. We can't count on filling those holes in free agency; we need draft picks.

 

I hear what you are saying, but simply do not see the in-house value. Honestly, I don't think Brown would net us more than a 5th round pick. I don't think we would get anything for Williams or Roach. Even in a weak FA year, teams can get LBs like that for cheap w/o giving up picks in the process.

 

Here is the problem, IMHO. I agree we need picks, but at the same time, I see very few players on the team that have market value for a trade. The couple players who may have value, I just do not know whether it is worth trading them. While we have many needs and need picks, at the same time, trading away some of the minimal quality we have may not make sense. Especially when you consider our drafting history.

 

Players who "could" have some value:

 

Offense:

 

Hester - Not the value he was. I think we might be able to get a 3rd for Hester, but that frankly is on the high side. For a 3rd, I am not sure it is worth it. While I do not ever expect him to become a stud WR, I do believe he has developed this year and could become a very solid to good WR. I am not sure I would expect us to see better value from our 3rd round pick than we have now in Hester.

 

That's really it. I don't think there is another player on our offense that would have any market value.

 

Defense:

 

Brown - I honestly do not think Brown could get us more than a 5th. Maybe a conditional 4th. DE's value (especially RDEs) is based on ability to rush the passer, and Brown has never been more than average in this regard. Brown is a 5 or 6 sack per year guy. That's it. Our DL is going to see a lot of turnover, and retaining one starter isn't a bad idea. It isn't that I am against trading Brown. Its that I just don't think his value is enough to make it worth the move.

 

Harris - This is actually the interesting one. I don't think his value is great, but unlike Brown, Harris does have in his history elite tier play. Sort of the Burgess thing. In Harris, another coach may believe he can simply get more out of him than Lovie and Co. If that is the case, we may get some decent value. Additionally, I am not sure what sort of future Harris has for us at this point, so getting great value for him may not be key. If we could get a 3rd, or even conditional 2nd, I would take it. I am not sure we could, but again, players like Harris tend to see more value, even coming off multiple mediocre seasons, as coaches will look at what they once did, and feel they can still do it.

 

Urlacher - I think he might have value similar to Harris, but at the same time, I think he has more value for us on the field. We are going to see a lot of changes on the defense. Keeping a player like Urlacher in the middle may do more to help in the transition.

 

Briggs - Understand, i do not see this happening, but in Briggs, we could actually have our best trade possibility. Briggs is easily our top values player. He has been a stud and pro bowler (thus has a very good rep and thus value). At the same time, I don't think he has proven to be a player that truly is a difference maker. When Urlacher goes down, the entire defense goes down. I am not sure the same can be said if we lost Briggs. Additionally, while it was only against the lowly Rams, Williams showed us that we "may" have a replacement for Briggs. I am not advocating trading Briggs, but in Briggs, we may have our best scenario.

[nfoligno]

While I agree his value a couple years ago was much higher, at the same time, I do not think his value was ever a 1st and 2nd. In fact, I am not sure I would agree we could have even gotten a 1st. I think we may have gotten a 2nd round pick.

 

Even looking back I can't blast the staff for not trading him. While his value has tanked, I think even in hindsight, you have to consider the situation. We were coming off a SB appearance. The team didn't appear to have a vast number of holes, and we did still have draft picks at the time (and FA) to enhance the team. IMHO, we could have continued to improve the team w/o having to trade a young player like Hester.

 

While there is a lot of reasons to try and acquire draft picks today, I am not sure the same can be said then. The reason we have tanked since then, not counting coaching, is poor drafting and FA moves.

 

I was completely ripped to shreds for the thread I made. Yes, it was me who made it. I was told that you don't trade the most explosive, most dangerous player ever. I was told he was only 23 and he's going to keep getting more and more. I was told they'd start kicking it out of bounds thus getting great field position.

 

***

 

Did that ever happen? No. At the time, we could've gotten a 1st and a 2nd round pick for him. But no, we needed his PR/KR explosiveness and his youth. Now, we'd be lucky to get a 3rd for the guy.

 

With how far he's come as a WR, he'll be a Bear for awhile. That's the way JA does it- barely develop any players, but when you do, keep him around.

 

[madlithuanian]

On O, I think Kreitz could get a 4th...

 

On D, I think Tillman also has value. Same with T. Harris.

 

Or did you already mention all those?

[defiantgiant]

On O, I think Kreitz could get a 4th...

 

On D, I think Tillman also has value. Same with T. Harris.

 

Or did you already mention all those?

Yeah, but we can't afford to be any thinner on the offensive line or at corner or DT. We don't have replacements for any of those guys - whatever we got for them, we'd have to spend at least as much just to stay adequate at their positions. I mean, I really don't want to see a starting CB tandem of Bowman/Graham out there. They'd get burned all day. And if Kreutz were gone, we'd need to put Beekman at center and that would probably mean a lot more of the Omiyale Show at LG.

 

Nfo, I agree about Briggs - it'd be a steep dropoff from him to Williams, but I could see somebody giving up a late 1st or early 2nd for him: he's exceedingly durable (missed like 3 or 4 games in his whole career) has made the past 4 Pro Bowls, and is young enough to still have pretty major value. It would suck to lose Briggs, but if somebody offered a 1st, I can't imagine we could afford to say no.

 

I'll throw one more name out there: Greg Olsen. He's young, has a ton of ability, and could attract some serious interest. And for all the reported "chemistry" between Cutler and Olsen, they haven't been a very effective duo on the field. We could bring in a blocking TE (like Gilmore was) for next to nothing, and have Des Clark and Kellen Davis as our main TEs. Olsen's almost in the same category as Briggs: he'd be a big loss, but I think a team like New England (who have a bunch of Day 1 picks and some lousy TEs) could offer enough value for Olsen to make it worth it.

 

And Connor, I agree that Olsen and Davis should be great red-zone targets on paper. Davis, for what it's worth, has looked like he could develop into a major jump-ball threat - I think he could end up being a go-to guy down by the goal line. Olsen, though, is different: it's true that he's a great matchup against LBs or safeties, but he isn't seeing a lot of that. Without a real threat at WR, defenses can put their best corner on Olsen and shut him down. We just don't have the receivers to tax a secondary: most teams can shadow Olsen with their #1 and roll a safety to help the corner covering Hester, and that's all she wrote. That's even more true when we get in the red zone and the field gets shorter.

[madlithuanian]

I fear Kruetz is done. Especially next year. May as well get Beelman in there and bring in another OG.

 

I don't want to remotely get rid of Tillman! But, he does have value. I'd actually prefer him moved to FS, and let some of the corners develop. I also feel a defensive philosophy change would help tremendously...

 

yes! I agree, Olsen also has value, and I woulfdn't mind him moved since we have Davis.

 

Yeah, but we can't afford to be any thinner on the offensive line or at corner or DT. We don't have replacements for any of those guys - whatever we got for them, we'd have to spend at least as much just to stay adequate at their positions. I mean, I really don't want to see a starting CB tandem of Bowman/Graham out there. They'd get burned all day. And if Kreutz were gone, we'd need to put Beekman at center and that would probably mean a lot more of the Omiyale Show at LG.

 

Nfo, I agree about Briggs - it'd be a steep dropoff from him to Williams, but I could see somebody giving up a late 1st or early 2nd for him: he's exceedingly durable (missed like 3 or 4 games in his whole career) has made the past 4 Pro Bowls, and is young enough to still have pretty major value. It would suck to lose Briggs, but if somebody offered a 1st, I can't imagine we could afford to say no.

 

I'll throw one more name out there: Greg Olsen. He's young, has a ton of ability, and could attract some serious interest. And for all the reported "chemistry" between Cutler and Olsen, they haven't been a very effective duo on the field. We could bring in a blocking TE (like Gilmore was) for next to nothing, and have Des Clark and Kellen Davis as our main TEs. Olsen's almost in the same category as Briggs: he'd be a big loss, but I think a team like New England (who have a bunch of Day 1 picks and some lousy TEs) could offer enough value for Olsen to make it worth it.

 

And Connor, I agree that Olsen and Davis should be great red-zone targets on paper. Davis, for what it's worth, has looked like he could develop into a major jump-ball threat - I think he could end up being a go-to guy down by the goal line. Olsen, though, is different: it's true that he's a great matchup against LBs or safeties, but he isn't seeing a lot of that. Without a real threat at WR, defenses can put their best corner on Olsen and shut him down. We just don't have the receivers to tax a secondary: most teams can shadow Olsen with their #1 and roll a safety to help the corner covering Hester, and that's all she wrote. That's even more true when we get in the red zone and the field gets shorter.

 

[nfoligno]

On O, I think Kreitz could get a 4th...

 

I don't think we could get a 7th for Kreutz. He will be in the final year of a deal, and while I don't have the number, you can bet his base will be pretty high (final year of deals usually are). His play has really gone down hill, and his absense from the pro bowls says more than just we Bear fans see this. Throw in his age and mileage, and I just do not see another team looking to trade for him. If he were a FA, sure, there would be teams that would show interest, but not if they would have to pay him what we will next year and not if they would have to give up a draft pick to get him.

 

On D, I think Tillman also has value. Same with T. Harris.

 

I did mention Harris. I really don't know how much value Tillman has. Not like he was ever a pro bowl CB, and his play has only gone down hill. Add in the injuries and contract, and I just don't think he would have much value in a trade.