Trade Hester

[nfoligno]

Nfo, I agree about Briggs - it'd be a steep dropoff from him to Williams, but I could see somebody giving up a late 1st or early 2nd for him: he's exceedingly durable (missed like 3 or 4 games in his whole career) has made the past 4 Pro Bowls, and is young enough to still have pretty major value. It would suck to lose Briggs, but if somebody offered a 1st, I can't imagine we could afford to say no.

 

There would be a dropoff, but at the same time, in Williams we have a young player w/ upside who may prove to be less of a dropoff than some might otherwise think. But key for me is, I just do not consider Briggs a game changer. When Urlacher goes out, you see a tremendous ripple effect on the defense. He is a player OCs game plan for. I just don't think the same is true of Briggs.

 

I'll throw one more name out there: Greg Olsen. He's young, has a ton of ability, and could attract some serious interest. And for all the reported "chemistry" between Cutler and Olsen, they haven't been a very effective duo on the field. We could bring in a blocking TE (like Gilmore was) for next to nothing, and have Des Clark and Kellen Davis as our main TEs. Olsen's almost in the same category as Briggs: he'd be a big loss, but I think a team like New England (who have a bunch of Day 1 picks and some lousy TEs) could offer enough value for Olsen to make it worth it.

 

First, what would his value be? We took him in the late 1st. Since then, has he even become the player he was expected to be on draft day? I don't think so. I don't think he would net us a 1st. Maybe 2nd, but just as likely a 3rd.

 

Second, I would not make this trade. We need to add weapons for Cutler, not take away. Olsen is a weapon, and often Cutler's favorite. Heck, I would point out that many times, teams put their top CB on Olsen. Imagine how much less our WRs may look if opponents didn't have to factor Olsen. Right now, I think Olsen is the only weapon we have that opponents game plan for, as proven by top CBs playing him.

 

[madlithuanian]

I agree w/ you on Briggs... Great player, but not enough so to not dangle him as a possibility to get a #1 from someone. He's having a good season amidst our terrible overall season, so there may well be takers.

 

I'm not sure I would let Olsen go for a 3rd, but for a second, I'd think about it.

 

I just fear the clown doing the picking...

 

Nfo, I agree about Briggs - it'd be a steep dropoff from him to Williams, but I could see somebody giving up a late 1st or early 2nd for him: he's exceedingly durable (missed like 3 or 4 games in his whole career) has made the past 4 Pro Bowls, and is young enough to still have pretty major value. It would suck to lose Briggs, but if somebody offered a 1st, I can't imagine we could afford to say no.

 

There would be a dropoff, but at the same time, in Williams we have a young player w/ upside who may prove to be less of a dropoff than some might otherwise think. But key for me is, I just do not consider Briggs a game changer. When Urlacher goes out, you see a tremendous ripple effect on the defense. He is a player OCs game plan for. I just don't think the same is true of Briggs.

 

I'll throw one more name out there: Greg Olsen. He's young, has a ton of ability, and could attract some serious interest. And for all the reported "chemistry" between Cutler and Olsen, they haven't been a very effective duo on the field. We could bring in a blocking TE (like Gilmore was) for next to nothing, and have Des Clark and Kellen Davis as our main TEs. Olsen's almost in the same category as Briggs: he'd be a big loss, but I think a team like New England (who have a bunch of Day 1 picks and some lousy TEs) could offer enough value for Olsen to make it worth it.

 

First, what would his value be? We took him in the late 1st. Since then, has he even become the player he was expected to be on draft day? I don't think so. I don't think he would net us a 1st. Maybe 2nd, but just as likely a 3rd.

 

Second, I would not make this trade. We need to add weapons for Cutler, not take away. Olsen is a weapon, and often Cutler's favorite. Heck, I would point out that many times, teams put their top CB on Olsen. Imagine how much less our WRs may look if opponents didn't have to factor Olsen. Right now, I think Olsen is the only weapon we have that opponents game plan for, as proven by top CBs playing him.

 

[madlithuanian]

Really? I guess I'm buying into the hype more than I should.

 

I think Tillman does have some great value. I think given a good DC and a decent defense, he could be a beast. He prettymuch was in '06. But, I would much rather keep him.

 

 

 

On O, I think Kreitz could get a 4th...

 

I don't think we could get a 7th for Kreutz. He will be in the final year of a deal, and while I don't have the number, you can bet his base will be pretty high (final year of deals usually are). His play has really gone down hill, and his absense from the pro bowls says more than just we Bear fans see this. Throw in his age and mileage, and I just do not see another team looking to trade for him. If he were a FA, sure, there would be teams that would show interest, but not if they would have to pay him what we will next year and not if they would have to give up a draft pick to get him.

 

On D, I think Tillman also has value. Same with T. Harris.

 

I did mention Harris. I really don't know how much value Tillman has. Not like he was ever a pro bowl CB, and his play has only gone down hill. Add in the injuries and contract, and I just don't think he would have much value in a trade.

 

[AZ54]

Too busy to reply last night...

 

I can agree we won't get two picks for Hester but I'm not so sure we can't get a late 1st Rd pick for him. If it's not offered we don't need to do anything. I believe Knox will develop into a better WR down the road than Hester. He has better instincts for the role and while he is 10lbs lighter than Hester today I don't think that difference makes it past next season. Likewise for those who pointed out that Knox only knows one WR position, of course, it's his first season but there's no reason to think he can't learn more routes for next season.

 

I think what's most important is to have a GM who realizes this team is done and be smart enough to reset his goals for 2 years down the road. He must identify those players who today might be good for us, in two years when we are ready to compete in the playoffs they'll be hindering the team. That includes accounting for what typically are higher salaries for past glory (i.e. Kreutz). Figure out who those players are and move them.

 

I think the thread has gone in a good direction in discussing who fits that mold. Obviously I put Hester in there simply because I don't think he'll be more than what he is today and this is likely his best market, just doesn't appear to be as good as I hoped. Nonetheless, I'd float it around the league and see if anyone bites hard.

 

I can go either way with Briggs depending on what happens with Williams. I'd love to see more from Williams these last few games. If we have Briggs replacement on the roster for less money then go there to free up cash and get a pick for Briggs. If we don't have the replacement then we keep Briggs because he's young enough and good enough that he should be a strong contributor in three years.

 

Urlacher is on the list because he should have value to a few teams for a couple years. Three years from now he'll be done for us when we're ready to challenge. Get what you can now to find his replacement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JRCook79]

Too busy to reply last night...

 

I can agree we won't get two picks for Hester but I'm not so sure we can't get a late 1st Rd pick for him. If it's not offered we don't need to do anything. I believe Knox will develop into a better WR down the road than Hester. He has better instincts for the role and while he is 10lbs lighter than Hester today I don't think that difference makes it past next season. Likewise for those who pointed out that Knox only knows one WR position, of course, it's his first season but there's no reason to think he can't learn more routes for next season.

 

I think what's most important is to have a GM who realizes this team is done and be smart enough to reset his goals for 2 years down the road. He must identify those players who today might be good for us, in two years when we are ready to compete in the playoffs they'll be hindering the team. That includes accounting for what typically are higher salaries for past glory (i.e. Kreutz). Figure out who those players are and move them.

 

I think the thread has gone in a good direction in discussing who fits that mold. Obviously I put Hester in there simply because I don't think he'll be more than what he is today and this is likely his best market, just doesn't appear to be as good as I hoped. Nonetheless, I'd float it around the league and see if anyone bites hard.

 

I can go either way with Briggs depending on what happens with Williams. I'd love to see more from Williams these last few games. If we have Briggs replacement on the roster for less money then go there to free up cash and get a pick for Briggs. If we don't have the replacement then we keep Briggs because he's young enough and good enough that he should be a strong contributor in three years.

 

Urlacher is on the list because he should have value to a few teams for a couple years. Three years from now he'll be done for us when we're ready to challenge. Get what you can now to find his replacement.

 

 

 

Hester has done nothing to help us win since 2006, at least nothing that's not easily replaceable. His return "skills" are a joke at this point, and he's a mediocre receiver. He's neither a smart player nor is he particularly well sized. Get rid of him ASAP for whatever you can get.

 

[selection7]

I'm seeing a lot of bashing of our WRs. Remember, it's very easy to bash the WRs poor production when the OL is screwing up, the RB has a 3.3 yard average, and your QB is leading the league in picks.

 

back in the day I was saying a) we should give the ST blocking more credit and how much trouble he'll have being asked to learn a new position this late in his football life (I wasn't wrong, per se, but I definitely underestimated him). Now, ironically, I'm having to type a reply to defend him.

 

Watching him on the field, his quickness does get him separation (and he is still very quick), his athleticism absolutely translates (I love his hustle too), and he has much better hands than I ever would have guessed possible two years ago. How long has he been playing the position? I hate to use a loaded word but I can't think of a better one now...don't be myopic about this. If we get to the point where we have a working offense, having a guy like him will become very important. If by some chance Knox is a replacement, it's just dumb luck, not because his qualities are easy to replace. And remember, at this time last year we thought we had a gem in Corey Graham...the year before that it was someone else. To clarify, I agree with everyone saying he's worth more to us at this point than we'd get for a draft pick (unless we can get Dan Snyder in on a bidding war, lol) that we would just have to spend on a WR if we weren't in dire need of OL.

 

Also, I'm not ready to give up on (before we've had a chance to field an offense that can take advantage of it) the idea of Knox, Hester, & Olson all on the field at once causing fits because they're all as fast as it gets at their positions.

[nfoligno]

I'm seeing a lot of bashing of our WRs. Remember, it's very easy to bash the WRs poor production when the OL is screwing up, the RB has a 3.3 yard average, and your QB is leading the league in picks.

 

Understand, I am going to overall agree in general that we can't lay too much at the feet of the WRs, yet at the same time, I would not excuse them either. While I would not say our WRs "are the" problem, I would say they are part of the problem. When WRs are running the wrong route, failing to get sep/open, failing to make the same reads as the QB, failing to get clean/quick release off the LOS....when the WRs fail to play at a high level, they are going to make life for the QB harder.

 

I still believe it is all about the OL. At the same time, if our WRs did a better job of getting open more quickly, Cutler may be able to get rid of the ball faster, which backs these aggressive defenses off our OL, which..... Point is, it all goes together. While the WRs are not THE problem, they are also part of the problem.

 

Watching him on the field, his quickness does get him separation (and he is still very quick), his athleticism absolutely translates (I love his hustle too), and he has much better hands than I ever would have guessed possible two years ago. How long has he been playing the position? I hate to use a loaded word but I can't think of a better one now...don't be myopic about this. If we get to the point where we have a working offense, having a guy like him will become very important. If by some chance Knox is a replacement, it's just dumb luck, not because his qualities are easy to replace. And remember, at this time last year we thought we had a gem in Corey Graham...the year before that it was someone else. To clarify, I agree with everyone saying he's worth more to us at this point than we'd get for a draft pick (unless we can get Dan Snyder in on a bidding war, lol) that we would just have to spend on a WR if we weren't in dire need of OL.

 

In general, I agree. I think too many fans placed unrealistic expectations on Hester. I too said all along that we simply can not expect him to develop so quickly. Rookie WRs enter the NFL more polished at WR than Hester, who was only a part time WR in college. And as he played so many position, he never truly developed at any one. His first year w/ us, he was a DB and return specialist. His 2nd year he was still a return specialist, but given a handfull of plays on offense, but even then it was mostly gimmick. It wasn't until his 3rd year he was truly moved to WR, and thus he is only in his 2nd season as a WR. Frankly, he has developed at this point more than I would have expected, and unlike others, I do not believe he has hit the ceiling in terms of developing at WR.

 

With that said, I do not think he is a #1 WR. But I do not understand the attitude that if he can't develop into a stud #1 we have to get rid of him. W/ a QB like Cutler, you don't just want one quality WR you can count on, but many. Look at NO and most other potent offenses. They have multiple threats. I want to keep Hester because (a) I don't think his value is good enough to warrant trading him and ( I think he can still develop further. Maybe not a sure #1, but a solid WR just the same. W/ our history of weak WRs, I just don't understand the attitude of getting rid of one who does have as much ability as he.

 

Also, I'm not ready to give up on (before we've had a chance to field an offense that can take advantage of it) the idea of Knox, Hester, & Olson all on the field at once causing fits because they're all as fast as it gets at their positions.

 

Heck, I would throw Bennett in there two. I really think Cutler could look excellent (w/ an improved OL) if we had Knox (in his 2nd year) on one side, Bennett on the other, w/ Hester in the slot, and Olsen at TE.

[defiantgiant]

Yeah, Hester's still a project, but he's developed about as well as I think we could hope for. He's gotten much tougher to cover since he got that double move down (I first started to notice it toward the end of last season,) his hands are light-years ahead of last year, and his quickness still makes it pretty easy for him to get separation. That said, his route-running is subpar, but I remember a lot of people saying that was going to be the biggest hurdle in his development. That'll probably be the last thing to click, as it depends on a lot of experience. He's got the physical skills to be a great route-runner, since he's already so quick out of his breaks and doesn't have to throttle down much to change direction, but he just isn't there yet in terms of knowing what to do.

 

I think Hester (and probably Knox, too) would benefit immensely if the Bears brought in a retired Jimmy Smith-type WR to coach route-running in the offseason. Get a guy who made his career on running great routes and have him do a cliinic. I remember the Eagles or somebody doing that with their young receivers last offseason: it couldn't hurt with our young WRs.

 

Nfo, I have to agree, I don't think Hester is going to turn into a dominant receiver. I think he could probably break 1000 every season in a functional offense, but he's not going to be a Larry Fitz or an Andre Johnson. I could see him having a Wes Welker-type impact, though: in an offense with one or two other elite players, he could be a really dangerous complementary piece. But before that can happen, we need a line to buy Cutler some time, a running game to keep defenses honest, and another legitimate receiving threat so Hester isn't getting doubled all the time.

 

EDIT:

Heck, I would throw Bennett in there two. I really think Cutler could look excellent (w/ an improved OL) if we had Knox (in his 2nd year) on one side, Bennett on the other, w/ Hester in the slot, and Olsen at TE.

We already do this, except it's Bennett in the slot. When Knox comes on the field at split end, Hester stays at flanker and Bennett moves into the slot. With a functional OL and some improved receiver play (fewer drops from Olsen, better routes from Hester) that could be a very, very tough personnel group to deal with.

 

I like the idea of putting Hester in the slot, though. Corners already play 10 or 12 yards off of Knox, and that would open things up underneath. With defenses trying to roll coverage to Hester on top of that, there'd be all kinds of room for Bennett and Olsen to work down the other sideline. Even in a nickel package, you'd have to leave either Hester or Olsen one-on-one with a linebacker or a safety. If the line could give Cutler more than a second to throw, that could be a very effective look on offense.

[nfoligno]

You mention route running maybe being the last thing in his development. I think it is more upstairs that not only will be the last thing to develop, if it does, but the top hurdle that prevents him from being an upper tier WR.

 

Understand, I am not calling him stupid. But I don't think he is super football smart. Nor do I think he has the instincts of a WR. When you talk about elite WRs, most are pretty damn football smart. They can recognize coverage and alter their route in the same way a QB reads it. I just don't think Hester will ever be a smart WR, thus I don't think he will ever be a truly consistent WR. I think he can be a dangerous WRs, and a playmaker for us, but I just don't see him being the sort of WR the QB can truly rely on to (a) get open ( be where he is supposed to be and © catch the ball. That doesn't mean he can't put up 1,000 yards or that he can't be a dangerous part of our offense. I said prior to the season I think Hester can be the sort to have 66 or so catches, but for 15+ ypc, and thus solid total yardage totals. I do not however see him being the sort to catch 90+ passes and be the #1 WR a QB can look to or count on.

 

In a perfect world, what I would love to see is Knox develop into a #1 WR. For the record, I am not saying Fitz or Moss, but simply the #1 read in our offense. Knox has proven both instincts and a quick ability to learn in having such an immediate impact as a rookie. Put Knox on one side and Bennett, who has started to really develop into a nice #2, possession WR, on the other. Put Hester back in the slot where I think he is most dangerous. While Hester may struggle to beat #1 CBs, I think he could really do damage against opponents nickel DBs. Then you put Olsen at TE, and you have a pretty damn dangerous group of weapons for Cutler to work with.

 

Of course, this all depends on fixing the OL, and giving Cutler time in the pocket and the WRs time to run routes, but that is another story.

 

Yeah, Hester's still a project, but he's developed about as well as I think we could hope for. He's gotten much tougher to cover since he got that double move down (I first started to notice it toward the end of last season,) his hands are light-years ahead of last year, and his quickness still makes it pretty easy for him to get separation. That said, his route-running is subpar, but I remember a lot of people saying that was going to be the biggest hurdle in his development. That'll probably be the last thing to click, as it depends on a lot of experience. He's got the physical skills to be a great route-runner, since he's already so quick out of his breaks and doesn't have to throttle down much to change direction, but he just isn't there yet in terms of knowing what to do.

 

I think Hester (and probably Knox, too) would benefit immensely if the Bears brought in a retired Jimmy Smith-type WR to coach route-running in the offseason. Get a guy who made his career on running great routes and have him do a cliinic. I remember the Eagles or somebody doing that with their young receivers last offseason: it couldn't hurt with our young WRs.

 

Nfo, I have to agree, I don't think Hester is going to turn into a dominant receiver. I think he could probably break 1000 every season in a functional offense, but he's not going to be a Larry Fitz or an Andre Johnson. I could see him having a Wes Welker-type impact, though: in an offense with one or two other elite players, he could be a really dangerous complementary piece. But before that can happen, we need a line to buy Cutler some time, a running game to keep defenses honest, and another legitimate receiving threat so Hester isn't getting doubled all the time.

 

[defiantgiant]

Yeah, I could see Knox eventually being a DeSean Jackson type of player down the line: he makes great use of his vertical speed, and he has shown some nice instincts for a rookie receiver. Like Jackson, he's pretty undersized, but it doesn't seem to matter, because defensive backs have to play so far off of him.

 

In a year or so, I think our receiver corps could compare pretty well to a group like Philly's: no real #1 and no particularly big receivers, but a bunch of smaller, faster guys who are tough to cover one-on-one and a QB who can buy time with his feet and spread the ball around. I think you can be successful with that kind of group: look at the pair of wideouts Dan Marino had - Mark Duper and Mark Clayton were both like 5'9", but they were fast as hell and very productive for the Dolphins.

 

EDIT: Also, I agree that Hester may never be a great route-runner like Torry Holt or Jimmy Smith, but I'm still hopeful that he can be at least adequate. Not all good WRs run great routes - Joey Galloway ran pretty average routes all through his career, but he really made the most out of his speed and his ability after the catch. If Hester weren't double-covered or bracketed all the time, I think he could get open one-on-one without running totally precise routes, as long as he improves to the point where they're at least OK.

[nfoligno]

Yeah, I could see Knox eventually being a DeSean Jackson type of player down the line: he makes great use of his vertical speed, and he has shown some nice instincts for a rookie receiver. Like Jackson, he's pretty undersized, but it doesn't seem to matter, because defensive backs have to play so far off of him.

 

In a year or so, I think our receiver corps could compare pretty well to a group like Philly's: no real #1 and no particularly big receivers, but a bunch of smaller, faster guys who are tough to cover one-on-one and a QB who can buy time with his feet and spread the ball around.

 

While I am not saying the comparison doesn't work, I am not sure I would call Knox undersized. He may tend to the lighter side, but he is 6'. Jackson is 5'10, though I think he must have been wearing shoes when they measured him.

 

I don't know what sort of WR Knox will end up, but I see the overall team comparison w/ Phily. While not comparing the players fully, but more in general: Jackson and Maclin could be similar to Knox and Hester. Celek similar to Olsen. And Westbrook or McCoy can be similar to Forte.

 

But for this to happen, we need to build up the OL. If the OL can't protect, WRs will not have time to run downfield routes and Cutler will be forced to throw short.

 

I think you can be successful with that kind of group: look at the pair of wideouts Dan Marino had - Mark Duper and Mark Clayton were both like 5'9", but they were fast as hell and very productive for the Dolphins.

 

While I am not arguing that an offense w/ smaller/quicker WRs can work, I would say I can't go along w/ using the Marino led Phins as an example. The game was different back then. That was before WRs got big. If you had a WR 6', he was considered pretty big. If you had a taller WR, he was also slow as hell. Today, 6' is considered more than norm than not, while teams also have more and more 6'3, 6'4 and even above that at WR. So I just can't use the older teams as an example when the standard then was so different. 5'9 was small, even back then, but not nearly as ridiculous as it would seem today.