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Evaluating Bears WR


AZ54
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Way back in the offseason someone posted this link where they analyze every play of every game and give a rating for each player.

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_positio...&numgames=1

 

I took at look at our WR ratings and was surprised to see DA ranked first when select "all" for snaps. DA doesn't have enough time on the field for me to trust any rankings, however, what was more interesting is that Hester is rated as our worst WR. When you consider the whole of the season (leave out DA and Davis) this shows Bennett as being our best WR.

 

Couple things jump out in his stat line:

 

He is our best YAC receiver, 6.7 vs 5.0 for Hester and just 3.4 for Knox.

 

Although he is not rated as a good blocker he is rated far better at it than Hester, so is Knox.

 

If you go just by receiving grades Hester is ranked as our best. One other stat that jumps out is the 6 INTs when Cutler throws at Knox.

 

Next up the Oline...

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One thing I really question about these ranking is the importance they put on penalties. Looking just at the WRs, if a WRs has a couple penalties called against him, it has a dramatic effect on their overall ranking. Take Roddy White as an example. RW is a heck of a receiver, but due to a total of 6 penalties called against him this year, his overall ranking basically drops to zero. I understand penalties are important, but come on. 6 penalties over a season should not count so significantly.

 

On a similar note, should blocking be counted so strong. As I can tell, they give a WR a grade for receiving, blocking and then penalties, and each is then counted as equal. Running is also counted, but few have a running score (pos or negative) worth talking about. So, if a player has an 8 for receiving, but a negative 4 for blocking and negative 4 (due to 4 penalties) for penalties, he would have an overall score of ZERO. Blocking and penalties are important, but sorry, they are not on the same level of importance as receiving, and should not be counting in scoring as equal.

 

Way back in the offseason someone posted this link where they analyze every play of every game and give a rating for each player.

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_positio...&numgames=1

 

I took at look at our WR ratings and was surprised to see DA ranked first when select "all" for snaps. DA doesn't have enough time on the field for me to trust any rankings, however, what was more interesting is that Hester is rated as our worst WR. When you consider the whole of the season (leave out DA and Davis) this shows Bennett as being our best WR.

 

Couple things jump out in his stat line:

 

He is our best YAC receiver, 6.7 vs 5.0 for Hester and just 3.4 for Knox.

 

Although he is not rated as a good blocker he is rated far better at it than Hester, so is Knox.

 

If you go just by receiving grades Hester is ranked as our best. One other stat that jumps out is the 6 INTs when Cutler throws at Knox.

 

Next up the Oline...

 

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Among OLB they have Roach ranked 13th in the league and Lance Briggs is rated our worst LB.

 

That does very little to offer credibility to this system of ranking.

 

Key reason Roach is rated (by this site) so high is due to his pass defense, but what is their ranking based on? He has 1 sack w/ 5 pressures. He has only 1 pass defended and most damning is their final category. They look at the NFL QB rating for when QBs target their area, and Roach is 2nd to worst as QBs have a 116.2 rating when throwing into his zone. How does this translate to our best pass defending LB, and by a LARGE margin?

 

 

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I agree this is not a perfect system at all but it does offer some points worth discussing. Penalties out of context can sometimes be misleading. For example I'd gladly take an offensive pass interference if it prevented an INT. While the overall ranking doesn't have the proper weightings you can look into the categories individually to see how players compare there. Which is why I listed things like Bennett's YAC or run blocking vs. pass blocking for Oline.

 

Between Roach vs. Briggs I'm taking Briggs regadless of their rankings but I don't think Briggs has stood out as I would expect a Pro Bowl player to. However, I don't fault too much on our LB because playing behind what is a horrible Dline makes their job very difficult. I think our poor Dline performance is shown clear enough in the rankings on this site.

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Yea, I would love to know how they play with numbers to show:

 

Idonije is the 4th best pass rushing DT in the NFL.

 

Roach is the 6th best pass rushing/defending OLB in the NFL. Comparatively, Briggs gets negative scores in both pass and run, and ranks 37th overall. Wow.

 

Kreutz is the 4th best pass blocking Center in the league.

 

Just to name a couple.

 

Gonna ask one of the PFF guys to come over & clarify/explain the rankings.

 

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I am not trying to bash you for coming up w/ something new here. I just look at the rankings and (1) really question how they come up w/ their rankings in the first place and (2) feel the way they factor "overall" is a joke.

 

With that said, they do provide a nice sorting datebase w/ some usefull info. If you just look at stats provided, rather than rankings, I think it is more valuable.

 

For example, on WRs, showing the % caught is an intersting category, as is the Ints when thrown to category.

 

I agree this is not a perfect system at all but it does offer some points worth discussing. Penalties out of context can sometimes be misleading. For example I'd gladly take an offensive pass interference if it prevented an INT. While the overall ranking doesn't have the proper weightings you can look into the categories individually to see how players compare there. Which is why I listed things like Bennett's YAC or run blocking vs. pass blocking for Oline.

 

Between Roach vs. Briggs I'm taking Briggs regadless of their rankings but I don't think Briggs has stood out as I would expect a Pro Bowl player to. However, I don't fault too much on our LB because playing behind what is a horrible Dline makes their job very difficult. I think our poor Dline performance is shown clear enough in the rankings on this site.

 

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I agree this is not a perfect system at all but it does offer some points worth discussing. Penalties out of context can sometimes be misleading. For example I'd gladly take an offensive pass interference if it prevented an INT. While the overall ranking doesn't have the proper weightings you can look into the categories individually to see how players compare there. Which is why I listed things like Bennett's YAC or run blocking vs. pass blocking for Oline.

 

Between Roach vs. Briggs I'm taking Briggs regadless of their rankings but I don't think Briggs has stood out as I would expect a Pro Bowl player to. However, I don't fault too much on our LB because playing behind what is a horrible Dline makes their job very difficult. I think our poor Dline performance is shown clear enough in the rankings on this site.

 

 

heres the reply I got

 

I tend to direct people http://www.profootballfocus.com/about.php?tab=about#grad8

 

and this bit in particular:

 

"I'll add something else to the mix too. Whilst we're pretty happy with our ranking for say TEs in terms of pass blocking, run blocking receiving etc. on an individual level we're much less happy about the "Overall" grades and indeed debated whether or not to include them. In the end we felt we should because at least we are providing food for debate. The reason I say this is because if you accept the pass blocking grade is accurate, how should this be weighted in comparison to their receiving grade amongst others? For example NFL Network recently did a list of top 10 TEs and to me it appeared that receiving was given a massive precedence over blocking. Either that or the people who put the list together had no idea about the relative merits of the gentlemen in question when it came to blocking and hence reverted to something they did have, i.e. receiving stats."

 

The bottom line is we'd like people to weight and rank the grading how they see fit.... If they don't think penalties are important, don't use them. The penalty example is actually a good one because for reasons that go into the mists of time, we don't normalise them and we probably should.

 

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I agree with them on the weightings part, everyone values different aspects of the game. It all depends on the system. Like they said, if you just ignore the overall score and use the individual ratings to evaluate players in the context of your system.

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