So what players won't be back?

[bradjock]

I hope the owners step in and tell Angie he is not allowed to deal any future picks, or core players. DM may be different.

 

If, as most believe, Angie is tied to Lovie, who is on a one year "prove it" deal right now, then it doesn't make sense to allow your GM to deal away future picks another GM may sorely need.

 

What if we gave up next year's #1 pick for a high #2 this year? Assuming a player like Matt Forte was available who we believe could help the team immediately.

 

I throw that out because IMO, a scenerio like that is the only way we get back into the 2nd round. When we go to the Super Bowl next year it's close to a fair trade

 

With the lock-out looming, why is everyone assuming Lovie will be gone? I can see him going 7 & 9 and being retained for one more.

[brletich]

What if we gave up next year's #1 pick for a high #2 this year? Assuming a player like Matt Forte was available who we believe could help the team immediately.

 

I throw that out because IMO, a scenerio like that is the only way we get back into the 2nd round. When we go to the Super Bowl next year it's close to a fair trade

 

With the lock-out looming, why is everyone assuming Lovie will be gone? I can see him going 7 & 9 and being retained for one more.

 

Especially if he wins the last 2 games because the team was still playing hard for him...

[bowlingtwig]

Which SCORE show was it? This idea seems ridiculous to me since,

1) The last time JA traded up was for Craig Krenzel in the 5th round, and

2) JA wants to win now. That means, at least to some extent, to hell with the draft.

 

Everyone applauded Dallas for giving up so much for Roy Williams and the Jets for what they paid to get Braylon Edwards. I think most of us would have loved either of those two. On hind-sight, both teams over-paid badly. While the jury is still out on Edwards, Roy Williams sucks.

 

We gave our #2 for Adams to get him in here, see what he could do, and get him ready for next year. The only difference in trading for him or drafting Dan Bazuin is that Adams has one helluva a lot more potential.

 

Any player we give up for a #2 would weaken this team. To hell with that.

Please keep in mind that this isn't my thought, I was just simply stating what was said. I believe it will be hard to move back into the 2nd round. It maybe easier if we make a trade on draft day though to get into the 2nd though. FYI I believe it was the Mully and Hanley show. I listen to the SCORE while I am at work and that is between 3-6am every morning. So I catch the Les Grabstein show from 4-5 and then I normally catch the beginning of the mully and hanley show.

[defiantgiant]

What if we gave up next year's #1 pick for a high #2 this year? Assuming a player like Matt Forte was available who we believe could help the team immediately.

It'd be kind of a gamble, but I'd be OK with it if we could get an immediate contributor. There are usually still some blue-chip guys available between #33 and #45, and this team really needs help. Also, trading a future pick would allow us to keep our 3rd-rounder, which is good: we need as many draft picks as we can get. Ultimately, I think it depends on whether there's a guy available there who fills an immediate need. Here's who I'd be looking for:

- a real ballhawking free safety like Nate Allen or Earl Thomas

- a road-grading guard prospect like Mike Iupati or Maurkice Pouncey

- a legitimate nose guard like Dan Williams

 

Any of those guys could potentially go in the late 1st...if one of them falls to the early 2nd, I think it would make a lot of sense to trade a future pick so we could draft him. It wouldn't really be a waste of a pick, since you're still getting a 1st-round value, just using next year's 1st to get him.

[Pixote]

Sooner or later we have to get back to a "normal" draft where we have picks in all rounds. If we keep mortgaging future drafts to replace picks sacrificed to obtain Cutler, we will always be in a deficit situation. I would prefer us not to trade up this year. I am hoping we show vast improvement with the change of coordinators. If we do not, then we will need those draft selections in 2011 for the new powers-to-be to build the team.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

What if we gave up next year's #1 pick for a high #2 this year? Assuming a player like Matt Forte was available who we believe could help the team immediately.

 

I throw that out because IMO, a scenerio like that is the only way we get back into the 2nd round. When we go to the Super Bowl next year it's close to a fair trade

 

With the lock-out looming, why is everyone assuming Lovie will be gone? I can see him going 7 & 9 and being retained for one more.

We can't go down the slope of giving up 1st rounder after 1st rounder. I think if we move up, it will be because we are trading a veteran player or two to move up in the draft. And I'd assume we'd be targeting a dt, safety or an olineman.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Sooner or later we have to get back to a "normal" draft where we have picks in all rounds. If we keep mortgaging future drafts to replace picks sacrificed to obtain Cutler, we will always be in a deficit situation. I would prefer us not to trade up this year. I am hoping we show vast improvement with the change of coordinators. If we do not, then we will need those draft selections in 2011 for the new powers-to-be to build the team.

Exactly, you want to be in a position to offer your next head coach (if things fail) a full draft board.

 

I expect the Bears to be more active than people anticipate in FA. I also expect to see the Bears hand the reigns to some of the young players we've heard about over the years and see if they sink or swim.

 

Lovie isn't going to get a ton of help on the defensive side (in terms of big signings) as I think Angelo is going to be focused on upgrading the offensive side of the football via FA (oline, very good back-up, ie Chester Taylor).

[defiantgiant]

Exactly, you want to be in a position to offer your next head coach (if things fail) a full draft board.

 

I expect the Bears to be more active than people anticipate in FA. I also expect to see the Bears hand the reigns to some of the young players we've heard about over the years and see if they sink or swim.

 

Lovie isn't going to get a ton of help on the defensive side (in terms of big signings) as I think Angelo is going to be focused on upgrading the offensive side of the football via FA (oline, very good back-up, ie Chester Taylor).

See, this year's free agency is exactly why I think it makes sense to trade a future draft pick. There's an INCREDIBLY small group of guys hitting FA this year, thanks to the uncapped-year rules. It's also going to be much easier for teams to retain their own RFAs this year. And because you need 6 years in the league (instead of the normal 4) to be an unrestricted FA this year, the pool of guys the Bears could get without giving up picks is not only small, but made up of much older vets: not many of these guys are younger than 29 or 30. And the talent level is lower: if you make it six years and haven't been locked up to a long-term deal, there's probably a reason. So banking on free agency to rebuild the team this offseason is not a good idea - it's a small, old, less-talented group that's going to be available, and there's going to be a LOT more competition for their services.

 

Meanwhile, we've got a bumper crop of underclassmen declaring for the draft, most likely because of the prospect of a new rookie pay scale in 2011. Lots of guys who would probably get first-round grades in 2011 are declaring this year instead. Several positions of need for the Bears are much deeper in this draft than in normal years: especially free safety, interior o-line, and defensive tackle. I've said it before, but this is a very bad year to be looking for free agents, and a very good year to have a lot of draft picks. And all the juniors declaring this year means that next year's senior class could be fairly slim when the 2011 draft comes around. I agree that trading future draft picks is a bad idea as a general rule, but the fallout from the CBA makes it a good time to make an exception to that rule.

[Mongo3451]

See, this year's free agency is exactly why I think it makes sense to trade a future draft pick. There's an INCREDIBLY small group of guys hitting FA this year, thanks to the uncapped-year rules. It's also going to be much easier for teams to retain their own RFAs this year. And because you need 6 years in the league (instead of the normal 4) to be an unrestricted FA this year, the pool of guys the Bears could get without giving up picks is not only small, but made up of much older vets: not many of these guys are younger than 29 or 30. And the talent level is lower: if you make it six years and haven't been locked up to a long-term deal, there's probably a reason. So banking on free agency to rebuild the team this offseason is not a good idea - it's a small, old, less-talented group that's going to be available, and there's going to be a LOT more competition for their services.

 

Meanwhile, we've got a bumper crop of underclassmen declaring for the draft, most likely because of the prospect of a new rookie pay scale in 2011. Lots of guys who would probably get first-round grades in 2011 are declaring this year instead. Several positions of need for the Bears are much deeper in this draft than in normal years: especially free safety, interior o-line, and defensive tackle. I've said it before, but this is a very bad year to be looking for free agents, and a very good year to have a lot of draft picks. And all the juniors declaring this year means that next year's senior class could be fairly slim when the 2011 draft comes around. I agree that trading future draft picks is a bad idea as a general rule, but the fallout from the CBA makes it a good time to make an exception to that rule.

Exactly what I was going to post but worded better! I do also like Pix's take on getting back to normal on draft picks. All told, I think trading next years 1st for an early 2nd would be OK. I want to start winning sooner than later. Plus we have a ton of holes with the prospect of a crappy FA class. We can zero up the draft another year. One more thing: I don't think Angelo will draft any project players this year, as he knows his time may soon be up.

 

[bradjock]

Please keep in mind that this isn't my thought, I was just simply stating what was said. I believe it will be hard to move back into the 2nd round. It maybe easier if we make a trade on draft day though to get into the 2nd though. FYI I believe it was the Mully and Hanley show. I listen to the SCORE while I am at work and that is between 3-6am every morning. So I catch the Les Grabstein show from 4-5 and then I normally catch the beginning of the mully and hanley show.

 

You work 3-6? Yeesh. I think it's been slow in the news for Mully & Hanley. Today all they could talk about was Lane Kiffin going to USC. I still got the damn "Rocky Top" song it my head.

[bradjock]

Exactly what I was going to post but worded better! I do also like Pix's take on getting back to normal on draft picks. All told, I think trading next years 1st for an early 2nd would be OK. I want to start winning sooner than later. Plus we have a ton of holes with the prospect of a crappy FA class. We can zero up the draft another year. One more thing: I don't think Angelo will draft any project players this year, as he knows his time may soon be up.

 

Everyone keeps talking about all the holes we have but that's not true IMO.

#1 Priority: DE--We used our #2 pick on a guy who has lots of potential.

#2 Priority: Either RT or LG--Omiyale looked pretty good at LG by the end of the year. We could move him to RT. We definitely need one o-lineman.

#3 Priority: Safety--I'd like to see us get the guy from St. Louis. How many years in a row can JA take a guy in the late rounds?

 

We basically have 2 positions we need to fill and I wouldn't be shocked to see us maintain the status quo at either. Granted, were likely to make a lot more moves, but there's nothing else major.

[lemonej]

Everyone keeps talking about all the holes we have but that's not true IMO.

#1 Priority: DE--We used our #2 pick on a guy who has lots of potential.

#2 Priority: Either RT or LG--Omiyale looked pretty good at LG by the end of the year. We could move him to RT. We definitely need one o-lineman.

#3 Priority: Safety--I'd like to see us get the guy from St. Louis. How many years in a row can JA take a guy in the late rounds?

 

We basically have 2 positions we need to fill and I wouldn't be shocked to see us maintain the status quo at either. Granted, were likely to make a lot more moves, but there's nothing else major.

Since we will be picking in the mid 70's in the draft.This is generally the round where you can get some of the top prospects at interior o-line and there are a couple of guys I like that might be available.

 

1)John Jerry OG Mississippi- I watched this guy in their bowl game and thought he was very good in creating space for RB McCluster. He was moved inside from OT so he has the type of versatility the Bears like.

 

2) Mike Johnson OG Alabama- This is a leader on one of college footballs top offensive lines and a key contributor to Ingram's Heisman campaign.

 

3)Mitch Petrus OG Arkansas- Year after year this school puts out studs at OG and this is one of the latest.

 

4) Vladimir Ducasse OG U Mass- Another OT projected inside or as an RT prospect.

[defiantgiant]

Everyone keeps talking about all the holes we have but that's not true IMO.

#1 Priority: DE--We used our #2 pick on a guy who has lots of potential.

#2 Priority: Either RT or LG--Omiyale looked pretty good at LG by the end of the year. We could move him to RT. We definitely need one o-lineman.

#3 Priority: Safety--I'd like to see us get the guy from St. Louis. How many years in a row can JA take a guy in the late rounds?

 

We basically have 2 positions we need to fill and I wouldn't be shocked to see us maintain the status quo at either. Granted, were likely to make a lot more moves, but there's nothing else major.

 

I agree with the positions of need, although I think DT should be on that list, too (specifically a big run-stuffing guy to play the nose.) But there's no way we're getting OJ Atogwe from St. Louis...he only has 5 years in the NFL, so he's going to be a restricted free agent. The Rams will be able to match any offer the Bears make for him, and I'd be very surprised if they didn't give him the highest RFA tender, which would mean the Bears would have to give up 1st- and 3rd-round picks if the Rams didn't match the offer. Even if they gave him the lowest RFA tender, though, it would still cost a 3rd to get him...we'd be giving up our highest pick in the draft for a guy who's going to be 29 before the 2010 season and is coming off a season-ending shoulder injury.

[nfoligno]

Everyone keeps talking about all the holes we have but that's not true IMO.

#1 Priority: DE--We used our #2 pick on a guy who has lots of potential.

 

Lots of potential? Based on what? His pre-draft status? He was declared a bust by his coach in TB. Since joining the Bears, and working under the "best DL coach in the NFL" he showed nothing. He didn't even show rare flashes of something. I agree we invested a lot in him giving up a 2nd round pick, but disagree w/ the notion he has so much potential.

 

#2 Priority: Either RT or LG--Omiyale looked pretty good at LG by the end of the year. We could move him to RT. We definitely need one o-lineman.

 

I would agree Omiyale improved, but disagree w/ the idea he "looked pretty good at LG" by the end of the year. He didn't suck as bad as earlier in the season, and you have to wonder how much of his early awful play was due to playing next to Pace, but at the same time, I don't know how well he played either. I still didn't see him opening holes for Forte.

 

#3 Priority: Safety--I'd like to see us get the guy from St. Louis. How many years in a row can JA take a guy in the late rounds?

 

I don't think the StL safety will be available due to the lack of a new CBA. I agree this is a top tier need, but my concern is Angelo has always choosen to not only address this position w/ mid to low level draft picks, but has also continually tried to add players that look more like SS' to play FS. We need a centerfielder, yet always seem to try to force a SS into a coverage role.

 

We basically have 2 positions we need to fill and I wouldn't be shocked to see us maintain the status quo at either. Granted, were likely to make a lot more moves, but there's nothing else major.

 

I think other holes are:

 

DT - Harris is a shell of his former self, and I just don't know how much we can count on him. Harrison has shown little to nothing. Gilbert couldn't even get active, and I personally don't think the staff even knows whether he is best as a DT or DE, as they seem to continually change his position.

 

CB - Tillman is fading, and should not be considered long term. Bowman is okay, but I think there will always be the injury concern. Who else do we have. The staff seems to have no confidence in Graham as a CB. Vasher is questionable to even stick, and looked flat out bad when he did get on the field. Moore couldn't even make the active roster. CB seems like a pretty big need, IMHO.

 

On offense, beyond the OL need, I think coaching is the biggest key, though I would say improved RB depth and a FB are needs too.

[defiantgiant]

#3 Priority: Safety--I'd like to see us get the guy from St. Louis. How many years in a row can JA take a guy in the late rounds?

 

I don't think the StL safety will be available due to the lack of a new CBA. I agree this is a top tier need, but my concern is Angelo has always choosen to not only address this position w/ mid to low level draft picks, but has also continually tried to add players that look more like SS' to play FS. We need a centerfielder, yet always seem to try to force a SS into a coverage role.

 

CB - Tillman is fading, and should not be considered long term. Bowman is okay, but I think there will always be the injury concern. Who else do we have. The staff seems to have no confidence in Graham as a CB. Vasher is questionable to even stick, and looked flat out bad when he did get on the field. Moore couldn't even make the active roster. CB seems like a pretty big need, IMHO.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic about these two positions. If we can trade back up into the 2nd round, there's a ridiculous number of quality free safeties this year, way more than a normal year. Eric Berry and Taylor Mays are the big names, of course, but then there's Earl Thomas, Nate Allen, Morgan Burnett, Chad Jones, Major Wright...it's a long list. We won't be able to get Berry, Mays, or Thomas probably, but I'd be pretty surprised if more than 3 teams picked safeties in the first round. Those three guys could push Allen, Burnett, and the rest into the second round. If Jerry can trade back up into the 2nd, we could have our pick from among some very good free safeties.

 

As for cornerback, the one thing Jerry's proven he can do in the draft is find good defensive backs on day 2. With all the juniors declaring early, I think he should be able to find a good developmental prospect to eventually replace Peanut. Somebody like Walter Thurmond, Dominique Franks, or Amari Spievey could be available on Day 2.

[nfoligno]

I'm cautiously optimistic about these two positions. If we can trade back up into the 2nd round, there's a ridiculous number of quality free safeties this year, way more than a normal year. Eric Berry and Taylor Mays are the big names, of course, but then there's Earl Thomas, Nate Allen, Morgan Burnett, Chad Jones, Major Wright...it's a long list. We won't be able to get Berry, Mays, or Thomas probably, but I'd be pretty surprised if more than 3 teams picked safeties in the first round. Those three guys could push Allen, Burnett, and the rest into the second round. If Jerry can trade back up into the 2nd, we could have our pick from among some very good free safeties.

 

I am simply not high on moving up in the draft when (a) we have numerous needs ( little should be expected from FA and © w/ little ammo to trade, we are likely talking about a package involving future picks.

 

Back to FS, as much as I want one, OL remains higher on my priority list.

 

As for cornerback, the one thing Jerry's proven he can do in the draft is find good defensive backs on day 2. With all the juniors declaring early, I think he should be able to find a good developmental prospect to eventually replace Peanut. Somebody like Walter Thurmond, Dominique Franks, or Amari Spievey could be available on Day 2.

 

Everyone always says this, but is it really that true? The only truly qualified starting CB on our roster is one Angelo took high in the 2nd round. Heck, he was nearly a 1st round pick.

 

He found Vasher, who was an excellent nickel DB. Vasher appeared to be a solid starter for a short period of time, but was he truly a very good starting CB or did he just have a good season or two?

 

CBs Angelo has drafted:

 

Roe Williams (3rd round) bust

Tillman (2nd round) good starting CB.

Vasher (4th) How do we even evaluate Vasher?

Alfanso Marshall (7th) nothing

Rodriques Wilson (7th) who?

Daniel Manning (2nd) Not sure whether to count him as a CB or FS

Hester (2nd) Drafted as a CB, right?

Graham (5th) - I like him, but staff sure doesn't

McBride (7th) - Looked good for a couple games as a rookie, and downhill (cut) since.

Bowman (5th) - Good looking when healthy

Moore (4th) - Couldn't even make the active roster once this year, despite all the injuries.

 

Vasher and Bowman were drafted day two, and both were starters. Graham and McBride showed some talent in fill-in situations, but neither have been considered much more than depth chart players, and McBride has since been cut.

 

I always read fans talk about all the players Angelo gets in the 2nd day of the draft, but who are we talking about?

[defiantgiant]

Here's my take - I'm ignoring round 2, because it's on Day 1 of the draft, and it's a whole different set of expectations for those picks. Also, it's pretty well documented that Jerry's terrible on Day 1, no need to rehash that here. Expectations for Day 2 picks aren't nearly as high. Here's what I'd use for a rule of thumb:

- 3rd round picks should contribute on offense or defense (in rotations, sub packages, etc.) pretty much right away, and should probably be expected to develop into starters eventually.

- 4th and 5th round picks should contribute at some point. If you get a starter with a 4th/5th, that's an excellent selection.

- 6th and 7th round picks should be able to play special teams, but even that's not a given. If you get a guy who contributes (outside of special teams) at all with a 6th or a 7th, that's an excellent selection.

 

On Day 2, Jerry's gotten two starting corners with a 4th and a 5th, a nickel corner/fill-in starter with a 5th, and a dime back/special teamer with a 7th. Vasher was a good starting corner for a few years, before he did a Lito Sheppard. That's still good value for a 4th-round pick. As soon as Bowman had a healthy season, he looks like a quality starting corner. That's great value for a 5th. Graham and McBride contribute on special teams and in sub-packages, which is fine for where they were drafted. Also, McBride didn't get cut, he got injury-waived and then put on injured reserve. I think the jury's still out on Moore...it's too soon to evaluate him. If he hasn't done anything by the end of next year, he's probably a bust.

 

If you add it up, Jerry's whiffed on three corners on Day 2...one in the 3rd round, which is pretty bad, and two in the 7th, where if you even get a special-teams guy, you did OK. Meanwhile, he's hit on 4 corners, 2 of whom played much better than expected for where they were drafted. I'd say that's one big miss to four successes, which is a pretty good ratio.

[nfoligno]

Here is the issue I have w/ your evaluations. I am not going to argue that Graham and McBride provided good value considering the round. I agree that getting a player that late who simply makes the 53 man roster, whether as special teams or as depth, is doing well in terms of value. My issue is w/ the idea that CB is not a great concern because Angelo has a good record of finding CBs later in the draft. Simply getting good value out of a late pick because he makes the roster or plays special teams means little when talking about needing players to actually play CB. Graham, for example, may be considered a good value for where we got him, but if he isn't considered starter worthy, then you can't really use him as an example of Angelo finding CBs for us.

 

Let me try it another way. If you believe CB is a need, I think it wrong to simply say Angelo can get that w/ a late pick. Players like Graham or McBride may have been good value picks, but if they can't start at CB, then they really don't factor into the discussion of trying to find starter quality corners. Does that make sense?

 

I have said all along that Angelo has done decent in terms of finding players later in the draft that are good enough to make the 53 man roster. At the same time, that doesn't mean those same players are worthy of starting positions, or that we should feel confident Angelo can fill a hole, not just for depth or special teams, but for a starter grade position, w/ a late pick.

 

 

 

Here's my take - I'm ignoring round 2, because it's on Day 1 of the draft, and it's a whole different set of expectations for those picks. Also, it's pretty well documented that Jerry's terrible on Day 1, no need to rehash that here. Expectations for Day 2 picks aren't nearly as high. Here's what I'd use for a rule of thumb:

- 3rd round picks should contribute on offense or defense (in rotations, sub packages, etc.) pretty much right away, and should probably be expected to develop into starters eventually.

- 4th and 5th round picks should contribute at some point. If you get a starter with a 4th/5th, that's an excellent selection.

- 6th and 7th round picks should be able to play special teams, but even that's not a given. If you get a guy who contributes (outside of special teams) at all with a 6th or a 7th, that's an excellent selection.

 

On Day 2, Jerry's gotten two starting corners with a 4th and a 5th, a nickel corner/fill-in starter with a 5th, and a dime back/special teamer with a 7th. Vasher was a good starting corner for a few years, before he did a Lito Sheppard. That's still good value for a 4th-round pick. As soon as Bowman had a healthy season, he looks like a quality starting corner. That's great value for a 5th. Graham and McBride contribute on special teams and in sub-packages, which is fine for where they were drafted. Also, McBride didn't get cut, he got injury-waived and then put on injured reserve. I think the jury's still out on Moore...it's too soon to evaluate him. If he hasn't done anything by the end of next year, he's probably a bust.

 

If you add it up, Jerry's whiffed on three corners on Day 2...one in the 3rd round, which is pretty bad, and two in the 7th, where if you even get a special-teams guy, you did OK. Meanwhile, he's hit on 4 corners, 2 of whom played much better than expected for where they were drafted. I'd say that's one big miss to four successes, which is a pretty good ratio.

 

[AZ54]

Mays will drop much further than he'd have been chosen last year because his play at FS was pretty weak this year. Despite his speed he was often late in coverage. Funny how much different he looks when the front seven aren't as good as they were the year before. I guess that QB pressure makes a big difference to DBs. There's no doubt his athletic ability makes him a first round pick but his coverage skills don't.