Best Value in the 3rd = CB?

[dawhizz]

The more I look at this draft, and working under the assumption at the moment that the Bears don't move Olsen for a 2nd, I feel like the best value pick when the Bears pick might very well be at CB. Guard is a need, but they tend to fall anyway, so unless you fall in love with someone like Jon Asomoah (and he's available there), you might be able to wait a round or two and get Mike Johnson or Brandon Carter or someone like that. The best pure free safeties (Morgan Burnett, Nate Allen) will probably be gone, so I'd rather not reach for Major Wright when you can probably wait and get Robert Johnson or Kendrick Lewis or Darrell Stuckey.

 

But the CB crop is loaded this year, and not only that, it seems to fluctuate the most as far as where guys are projected to go, to the point where one projection's late first round pick is another's early third. Now, I actually like Bowman and Graham, but Tillman's really regressing in my opinion and Moore hasn't shown anything. With that in mind, the guy I'd have my eye on is Amari Spievey from Iowa. Great tackler, good fit in the cover-2, good CB height. Kind of a Tillman clone from a couple years ago. Plus, several projections say he might be even better as a free safety. Even if he's not the pick, there's plenty of other good cover-2 corners that might still be around in the 3rd (Kareem Jackson, Donovan Warren, Syd'Quan Thompson, Javier Arenas). Something to think about, I think.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

The more I look at this draft, and working under the assumption at the moment that the Bears don't move Olsen for a 2nd, I feel like the best value pick when the Bears pick might very well be at CB. Guard is a need, but they tend to fall anyway, so unless you fall in love with someone like Jon Asomoah (and he's available there), you might be able to wait a round or two and get Mike Johnson or Brandon Carter or someone like that. The best pure free safeties (Morgan Burnett, Nate Allen) will probably be gone, so I'd rather not reach for Major Wright when you can probably wait and get Robert Johnson or Kendrick Lewis or Darrell Stuckey.

 

But the CB crop is loaded this year, and not only that, it seems to fluctuate the most as far as where guys are projected to go, to the point where one projection's late first round pick is another's early third. Now, I actually like Bowman and Graham, but Tillman's really regressing in my opinion and Moore hasn't shown anything. With that in mind, the guy I'd have my eye on is Amari Spievey from Iowa. Great tackler, good fit in the cover-2, good CB height. Kind of a Tillman clone from a couple years ago. Plus, several projections say he might be even better as a free safety. Even if he's not the pick, there's plenty of other good cover-2 corners that might still be around in the 3rd (Kareem Jackson, Donovan Warren, Syd'Quan Thompson, Javier Arenas). Something to think about, I think.

 

It's really hard to fairly judge the CB's last season. There was the carousel of moving Graham, Tillman missed all of preseason with recovery from off season surgury, Bowman missed most of preseason with injury. The lack of pressure from the front 4 and the loss of Urlacher also magnified the deficency. I wouldn't call CB a top need unless they plan on moving Tillman.

 

I think the Bears hang loose from now until the draft. They go in with their big board set as:

 

RD3

1) FS - if their guy isn't their they shift their next thought to.......

2) CB- they can move Tillman to FS and start the season with Bowman/Graham as CB??(unless rookie can unseat) and Tillman/Alfava S.

3) OG- if FS and CB don't impress the Bears, OG becomes the target

 

[nfoligno]

I am not sure how hard it is to judge our CBs from last season. Bowman looks like a solid player. Tillman may be solid, but w/ his recent injury history, his health very much comes into question. After that, we have nothing. Many here, including myself, like Graham, but the staff sure doesn't seem to, and I read Hoke was not a fan, which was a key reason for Graham basically getting pushed out of the mix at CB. What else do we have. A 5'7 (with shoes on) CB who didn't even show the staff enough to be active on game day when we had serious needs in the secondary? DM can play nickel, but should not be considered a backup at CB.

 

We have two potentially solid starting CBs, but each have a injury history that has to be considered, and we have no depth behind them.

 

With that said, while I agree CB could be the way to go in the 3rd, I would say OT could be a great pick here too. From what I read, OT is among the best, and deepest positions in the draft, but OTs goes fast. You are likely to seen a ton go off the boards in the 1st, which often means fewer are taken in the 2nd, but quality finds can then be found in the 3rd.

 

OG is considered a really weak position in this draft, so I am not sure how great the value will be as you likely have some 3rd round value taken in the 2nd round due to need, but that means in the 3rd you could be looking at weaker value.

 

OT, CB and FS should be the three positions were are looking at in the 3rd.

 

It's really hard to fairly judge the CB's last season. There was the carousel of moving Graham, Tillman missed all of preseason with recovery from off season surgury, Bowman missed most of preseason with injury. The lack of pressure from the front 4 and the loss of Urlacher also magnified the deficency. I wouldn't call CB a top need unless they plan on moving Tillman.

 

I think the Bears hang loose from now until the draft. They go in with their big board set as:

 

RD3

1) FS - if their guy isn't their they shift their next thought to.......

2) CB- they can move Tillman to FS and start the season with Bowman/Graham as CB??(unless rookie can unseat) and Tillman/Alfava S.

3) OG- if FS and CB don't impress the Bears, OG becomes the target

 

[azbearsfan]

I am not sure how hard it is to judge our CBs from last season. Bowman looks like a solid player. Tillman may be solid, but w/ his recent injury history, his health very much comes into question. After that, we have nothing. Many here, including myself, like Graham, but the staff sure doesn't seem to, and I read Hoke was not a fan, which was a key reason for Graham basically getting pushed out of the mix at CB. What else do we have. A 5'7 (with shoes on) CB who didn't even show the staff enough to be active on game day when we had serious needs in the secondary? DM can play nickel, but should not be considered a backup at CB.

 

We have two potentially solid starting CBs, but each have a injury history that has to be considered, and we have no depth behind them.

 

With that said, while I agree CB could be the way to go in the 3rd, I would say OT could be a great pick here too. From what I read, OT is among the best, and deepest positions in the draft, but OTs goes fast. You are likely to seen a ton go off the boards in the 1st, which often means fewer are taken in the 2nd, but quality finds can then be found in the 3rd.

 

OG is considered a really weak position in this draft, so I am not sure how great the value will be as you likely have some 3rd round value taken in the 2nd round due to need, but that means in the 3rd you could be looking at weaker value.

 

OT, CB and FS should be the three positions were are looking at in the 3rd.

 

 

I agree. I think Bowman could be a playmaker. He can certainly get the picks. Tillman needs to focus on getting the tackles instead of punching the ball out.

 

This could shed some light on DJ Moore.

 

Especially this part :

Moore is still learning how to be a professional. He can't change the first thing, but the second concern should be addressed. Young players need to have a certain attitude when they enter the NFL -- they need to work hard and be humble. Word is Moore fancies himself as a young Asante Samuel, which if true would be great for the Bears, but it's hard to see that comparison since Moore was only active for three games as a rookie.

 

I just shake my head at some of these youngsters. You would think the fact that he fell so far in the draft would give him some humility.

 

 

[nfoligno]

Thanks for that. I had not heard that before.

 

Actually, to me there were to issues in that article that stood out to me. One was the attitude issue you address. But the other is the comment that Lovie likes bigger CBs. Okay, so we have a coach who likes bigger CBs, won't give the time of day to a little guy, and yet our GM drafts a little guy?

 

Look, I know you see this sort of thing w/ every team, but it seems like there is a greater disconnect between Angelo and Lovie of late. I mean, if Angelo knows what sort of CB Lovie covets, and drafts one very different, that shows a disconnect. But further, if Angelo does draft that guys and does so because he was just "too good of a talent to pass up", shouldn't the coach have enough trust in the GM to give the little guy a chance? If not, that would seem to reflect some pretty sizable trust issues too.

 

I agree. I think Bowman could be a playmaker. He can certainly get the picks. Tillman needs to focus on getting the tackles instead of punching the ball out.

 

This could shed some light on DJ Moore.

 

Especially this part :

 

I just shake my head at some of these youngsters. You would think the fact that he fell so far in the draft would give him some humility.

 

[azbearsfan]

Thanks for that. I had not heard that before.

 

Actually, to me there were to issues in that article that stood out to me. One was the attitude issue you address. But the other is the comment that Lovie likes bigger CBs. Okay, so we have a coach who likes bigger CBs, won't give the time of day to a little guy, and yet our GM drafts a little guy?

 

Look, I know you see this sort of thing w/ every team, but it seems like there is a greater disconnect between Angelo and Lovie of late. I mean, if Angelo knows what sort of CB Lovie covets, and drafts one very different, that shows a disconnect. But further, if Angelo does draft that guys and does so because he was just "too good of a talent to pass up", shouldn't the coach have enough trust in the GM to give the little guy a chance? If not, that would seem to reflect some pretty sizable trust issues too.

 

 

Well we just signed a small guy from the colts that has experience in the cover 2. So maybe Moore will get a shot if he gets his head straight.

[Mongo3451]

Thanks for that. I had not heard that before.

 

Actually, to me there were to issues in that article that stood out to me. One was the attitude issue you address. But the other is the comment that Lovie likes bigger CBs. Okay, so we have a coach who likes bigger CBs, won't give the time of day to a little guy, and yet our GM drafts a little guy?

 

Look, I know you see this sort of thing w/ every team, but it seems like there is a greater disconnect between Angelo and Lovie of late. I mean, if Angelo knows what sort of CB Lovie covets, and drafts one very different, that shows a disconnect. But further, if Angelo does draft that guys and does so because he was just "too good of a talent to pass up", shouldn't the coach have enough trust in the GM to give the little guy a chance? If not, that would seem to reflect some pretty sizable trust issues too.

Hell, we just signed Jennings yesterday. (5-9 and 185 if he's lucky)

[bradjock]

Thanks for that. I had not heard that before.

 

Actually, to me there were to issues in that article that stood out to me. One was the attitude issue you address. But the other is the comment that Lovie likes bigger CBs. Okay, so we have a coach who likes bigger CBs, won't give the time of day to a little guy, and yet our GM drafts a little guy?

 

Look, I know you see this sort of thing w/ every team, but it seems like there is a greater disconnect between Angelo and Lovie of late. I mean, if Angelo knows what sort of CB Lovie covets, and drafts one very different, that shows a disconnect. But further, if Angelo does draft that guys and does so because he was just "too good of a talent to pass up", shouldn't the coach have enough trust in the GM to give the little guy a chance? If not, that would seem to reflect some pretty sizable trust issues too.

 

You're ignoring several points that Jeff Dickerson should have made.

1. Lovie doesn't mind small nickels. JA conferred with Lovie before giving up a 3rd for RMJ plus 24 million. RMJ is listed at 5-9 195, comparable to Moore's 5-9, 185.

2. Before the combine, Moore was listed as the best cb. Early rounds the coach & GM should unite. By the 4th, any gm worth a damn takes the best player available.

3. Lovie hates rookies. With the exception of the safety position (which is awful) I can't think of a rookie ever beating out the veteran starter in training-camp.

 

You complain that Moore didn't see the field but we said the same about Earl Bennett. I look for Moore to break-out.

 

 

[nfoligno]

For the life of me, I will never understand the perception that Lovie hates rookies or does not play them.

 

2009

 

Knox got the nod for game one. Sure, you can argue that was in part due to DA's injury, but at the same time, if Lovie hated rookies, Davis more likely would have gotten the nod for playing time.

 

Afalava beat out Payne and whoever else and started from game one.

 

2008

 

Chris Williams was set to start if not for injury.

 

Forte started as a rookie.

 

Harrison did not start, but played a fairly significant role in our DT rotation as a rookie.

 

Bowman played, but went down w/ injury his first game.

 

2007

 

Olsen didn't start over Clark, but did play a significant amount as a rookie.

 

Beekman, Payne and McBride all had starts as rookies.

 

2006

 

DM was thrust into a starting role, which simply didn't workout.

 

Hester was immediately made our main return man as a rookie.

 

Dusty was played as a rookie, but injuries killed him.

 

Mark Anderson was a big part of the DE rotation, and played significant snaps as a rookie.

 

2005

 

Probably the key year fans gained the perception Lovie doesn't like rookies due to Benson and Bradley, injuries and other issues held them back more than Lovie. Orton and Chris Harris both started as rookies.

 

2004

 

Tommie Harris, Tank Johnson, Berrian, Vasher and even Krenzel at one point, all started as rookies.

 

2003

 

Michael Haynes, Rex Grossman, Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs, Todd Johnson, Ian Scott, Bobby Wade and Justin Gage all either started or played key roles their rookie year.

 

2002

 

Columbo, Alex Brown, Bobby Gray and Bryan Knight all started or played significantly as rookies.

 

There may be a player here or there who didn't start or play as much their rookie year as some expected, but w/ the large number or rookies who did play large roles, I think there is a better argument those fewer rookies limited role was due to ability rather than a staff that doesn't like rookies.

 

You're ignoring several points that Jeff Dickerson should have made.

1. Lovie doesn't mind small nickels. JA conferred with Lovie before giving up a 3rd for RMJ plus 24 million. RMJ is listed at 5-9 195, comparable to Moore's 5-9, 185.

2. Before the combine, Moore was listed as the best cb. Early rounds the coach & GM should unite. By the 4th, any gm worth a damn takes the best player available.

3. Lovie hates rookies. With the exception of the safety position (which is awful) I can't think of a rookie ever beating out the veteran starter in training-camp.

 

You complain that Moore didn't see the field but we said the same about Earl Bennett. I look for Moore to break-out.

 

[AZ54]

I think the issue is more a lack of Lovie cultivating a true competition for starting spots. I stated last year (perhaps the last two) that Lovie was more open to playing rookies and/or younger player when he first arrived but seemed to get away from the competition aspect after the Superbowl. Yes some rookies got playing time but Beekman, McBride, and I believe Payne getting reps due to injury isn't what we're talking about. During this time is when Lovie demoted Alex Brown and promoted Mark Anderson in the offseason instead of opening up a competition in camp. We all know how well that worked.

[nfoligno]

I love competition too, but I simply think that even there, the idea that Lovie hates rookies is over-rated. Everyone talks about competition, at many times I think it is great, but the reality is, when you have established veterans, rookies are not really going to compete with that veteran, especially late round picks.

 

Okay, just looking at post SB.

 

2007

 

Olsen - I guess some might argue he should have started, but as weak as his blocking was, I question that. He was played quite a bit, but Clark held the job, and I would argue rightfully so.

 

Bazuin - Didn't he get injured in camp. Hard to compete when injured, but as I recall, he was often talked about prior to the injury. Maybe not to start, but to take that 3rd DE role.

 

Wolfe - We had Benson, and Wolfe was simply going to get the start. Some say he should have had a greater role, but I have always argued he was drafted more for special teams than not.

 

Okwo - He was drafted for depth, and as insurance for Briggs.

 

Your right that Beekman was only allowed to compete after injuries, but I would argue that was more an issue of what position the team felt he should play (center).

 

Payne, as I recall, was very much in the competition from day one in camp. Graham was actually talked about a lot, but then went down w/ injury.

 

2008

 

Williams was set to start before injury. Forte was absolutely part of the competition from day one. Harrison was in the mix from day one as well. Steltz was in the competition, but looked lost. Point here is, these players were allowed to compete for a starting job, but only Forte was able to make the most of that opportunity. The lack of playing time or starts for the rest were on the players, not the coach, IMHO.

 

Bennett is the best example here. I don't think it was an issue of the staff not allowing him to compete, but (by Turner's own admission) trying to put too much on him too early, asking him to learn all WR roles.

 

2009

 

Knox seemed in the mix right away. Iglesias, per reports, struggled to adapt. But I would argue both were given opportunities. Gilbert was raw, and I don't think much was expected early on, but I would also argue that if he played well in camp, he could have pushed for more PT or even a start. Again, more an issue of the player simply not doing more with opportunity than simply not having the opportunity. Melton was injured in camp. Afalava, a later round pick rookie, was allowed to compete early on, and made the most of that opportunity securing the starting role from day one.

 

There have been players here and there which an argument can be made the coaches didn't give them an opportunity, but on the whole, I would argue rookies have been allowed to compete for PT and even starts, but the lack of starts was more on the players than the staff. I just disagree that Lovie hates rookies or doesn't allow them an opportunity. He has given rookies their shot, but from there, it is up to the rookie to take advantage. Some rookies, like Forte, Afalava and others, take advantage. Others did not.

 

I think the issue is more a lack of Lovie cultivating a true competition for starting spots. I stated last year (perhaps the last two) that Lovie was more open to playing rookies and/or younger player when he first arrived but seemed to get away from the competition aspect after the Superbowl. Yes some rookies got playing time but Beekman, McBride, and I believe Payne getting reps due to injury isn't what we're talking about. During this time is when Lovie demoted Alex Brown and promoted Mark Anderson in the offseason instead of opening up a competition in camp. We all know how well that worked.

 

[bradjock]

How'd this go from D.J. Moore to a discussion about playing rookies? Some of these guys don't help your cause. Most were pissed that Mark Anderson didn't start his rookie year. I'd bet Forte would have been the #2 if Cedric hadn't gotten arrested.

 

Rookies play due to desperation, injuries, or incompetence. I'll give you that rookies will play over vereran's we've written off, like AP & Rashied Davis.

 

Further evidence to this is there's always that guy who doesn't see the field his rookie year and he's the starter the next. This is true about Bennett, Beekman, and Dvoracek (IMO DD was only IR'ed because he wasn't going to play).

 

The writing's on the wall for Moore to be this year's sophomore starter at the nickel spot. I see him either getting the chance to make an impact or he'll be cut.

 

 

For the life of me, I will never understand the perception that Lovie hates rookies or does not play them.

 

2009

 

Knox got the nod for game one. Sure, you can argue that was in part due to DA's injury, but at the same time, if Lovie hated rookies, Davis more likely would have gotten the nod for playing time.

 

Afalava beat out Payne and whoever else and started from game one.

 

2008

 

Chris Williams was set to start if not for injury.

 

Forte started as a rookie.

 

Harrison did not start, but played a fairly significant role in our DT rotation as a rookie.

 

Bowman played, but went down w/ injury his first game.

 

2007

 

Olsen didn't start over Clark, but did play a significant amount as a rookie.

 

Beekman, Payne and McBride all had starts as rookies.

 

2006

 

DM was thrust into a starting role, which simply didn't workout.

 

Hester was immediately made our main return man as a rookie.

 

Dusty was played as a rookie, but injuries killed him.

 

Mark Anderson was a big part of the DE rotation, and played significant snaps as a rookie.

 

2005

 

Probably the key year fans gained the perception Lovie doesn't like rookies due to Benson and Bradley, injuries and other issues held them back more than Lovie. Orton and Chris Harris both started as rookies.

 

2004

 

Tommie Harris, Tank Johnson, Berrian, Vasher and even Krenzel at one point, all started as rookies.

 

2003

 

Michael Haynes, Rex Grossman, Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs, Todd Johnson, Ian Scott, Bobby Wade and Justin Gage all either started or played key roles their rookie year.

 

2002

 

Columbo, Alex Brown, Bobby Gray and Bryan Knight all started or played significantly as rookies.

 

There may be a player here or there who didn't start or play as much their rookie year as some expected, but w/ the large number or rookies who did play large roles, I think there is a better argument those fewer rookies limited role was due to ability rather than a staff that doesn't like rookies.

 

[jason]

I am not sure how hard it is to judge our CBs from last season. Bowman looks like a solid player. Tillman may be solid, but w/ his recent injury history, his health very much comes into question. After that, we have nothing. Many here, including myself, like Graham, but the staff sure doesn't seem to, and I read Hoke was not a fan, which was a key reason for Graham basically getting pushed out of the mix at CB. What else do we have. A 5'7 (with shoes on) CB who didn't even show the staff enough to be active on game day when we had serious needs in the secondary? DM can play nickel, but should not be considered a backup at CB.

 

We have two potentially solid starting CBs, but each have a injury history that has to be considered, and we have no depth behind them.

 

With that said, while I agree CB could be the way to go in the 3rd, I would say OT could be a great pick here too. From what I read, OT is among the best, and deepest positions in the draft, but OTs goes fast. You are likely to seen a ton go off the boards in the 1st, which often means fewer are taken in the 2nd, but quality finds can then be found in the 3rd.

 

OG is considered a really weak position in this draft, so I am not sure how great the value will be as you likely have some 3rd round value taken in the 2nd round due to need, but that means in the 3rd you could be looking at weaker value.

 

OT, CB and FS should be the three positions were are looking at in the 3rd.

 

Don't forget that the Bears had Devin Aromashodu sitting on the bench all year, and then blew up when he got in. In other words, the fact that a player is sitting on the bench for the Bears does NOT mean the player on the field is better. Not with this staff.

 

Aside from that, I just about agree with your position analysis.

 

1st priority: OG/OT

2nd priority: FS (not as worried about it if Peppers collapses the pocket)

3rd priority: ?? To be honest, I could see DT right alongside FS.

 

I don't know about everyone else, but I'd like the Bears to take a late round flyer on a QB with potential...because if Cutler takes a day off because of the flu, there is no way the Bears win with Hanie or Basanez (?).

[jason]

One other note on this thread...

 

I saw DJ Moore multiple times while at Vandy, and he is a VERY good player. I can't see how his talent doesn't translate to the NFL, and I expect him to get into games and do well...just like Bennett.