Bears should trade #1 for Brandon Marshall

[bradjock]

As per Mike Florio via the Sporting News:

 

www.sportingnews.com/nfl/article/2010-04-02/five-moves-should-be-made-before-nfl-draft

 

All I can say is, damn I miss having a first round pick. This will be the 2nd consecutive year we haven't drafted before the 3rd round. I have no regrets about the Cutler deal, but it's time to start stock-piling picks again. (And as I type that I'm hoping we give up a pick for Sims)

[jason]

As per Mike Florio via the Sporting News:

 

www.sportingnews.com/nfl/article/2010-04-02/five-moves-should-be-made-before-nfl-draft

 

All I can say is, damn I miss having a first round pick. This will be the 2nd consecutive year we haven't drafted before the 3rd round. I have no regrets about the Cutler deal, but it's time to start stock-piling picks again. (And as I type that I'm hoping we give up a pick for Sims)

 

Yeah, that's a bit contradictory. I say no picks for Sims, and especially none for Marshall. As mentioned numerous times on this board, the WR position is one of the last positions with which the Bears need help...regardless of how much the ignorant media mentions it.

[bowlingtwig]

Yeah, that's a bit contradictory. I say no picks for Sims, and especially none for Marshall. As mentioned numerous times on this board, the WR position is one of the last positions with which the Bears need help...regardless of how much the ignorant media mentions it.

Your absolutely right. Our WR's showed improvement and also provides us with a lot of hope considering they are all really young and talented to go along with a young and talented Cutler.

[defiantgiant]

Plus, Marshall nearly got cut by Shanahan over his inconsistent route-running. How's that going to play out in Martz's offense? I'm OK with trading future picks, but not for a position that's among the deepest on the team (right up there with linebacker and TE) and not for a guy who might not fit into the offense.

[bradjock]

Yeah, that's a bit contradictory. I say no picks for Sims, and especially none for Marshall. As mentioned numerous times on this board, the WR position is one of the last positions with which the Bears need help...regardless of how much the ignorant media mentions it.

 

Jason, I agree with you that the Bears need to make it a priority to upgrade the line. So how do we do it? There's nobody available, which means the best we can hope for is drafting a guy in round 3. So if we don't go after Sims, how do we upgrade the line?

[Daventry]

Plus, Marshall nearly got cut by Shanahan over his inconsistent route-running. How's that going to play out in Martz's offense? I'm OK with trading future picks, but not for a position that's among the deepest on the team (right up there with linebacker and TE) and not for a guy who might not fit into the offense.

 

I have seen several posters commenting on the "depth" at WR, when we do not have a single player who is a solid NFL receiver. Yes, we have some prospects, but not a single solid WR that would be acknowledged as a legitimate NFL starter on any team. So, I hope all of the people claiming WR is a strength are right, because if the guys we have don't step up we are going to have a tough year, even if God were throwing the ball....

 

[bradjock]

I have seen several posters commenting on the "depth" at WR, when we do not have a single player who is a solid NFL receiver. Yes, we have some prospects, but not a single solid WR that would be acknowledged as a legitimate NFL starter on any team. So, I hope all of the people claiming WR is a strength are right, because if the guys we have don't step up we are going to have a tough year, even if God were throwing the ball....

 

Last season Hester went for 757 yards and 3 TD's. He missed 3 1/2 games due to injuries or he might have hit 1000. How the hell's that not a solid WR???

 

Knox went for over 500 yards and 5 TD's his rookie year. If we dumped him teams would be lined up to sign him.

 

Not to mention Earl Bennett and DA who are damn good WR's.

 

To say we don't have a legitimate solid WR/starter is flat out retarded.

[Daventry]

Last season Hester went for 757 yards and 3 TD's. He missed 3 1/2 games due to injuries or he might have hit 1000. How the hell's that not a solid WR???

 

Knox went for over 500 yards and 5 TD's his rookie year. If we dumped him teams would be lined up to sign him.

 

Not to mention Earl Bennett and DA who are damn good WR's.

 

To say we don't have a legitimate solid WR/starter is flat out retarded.

 

 

Hester had such a good year that many here think that his role on the team should be special teams. I do not call ranked 17th in the NFC particularly solid....

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?arc...e&Submit=Go

 

Knox had a good rookie year but only just that....one good rookie year.

 

I am fully aware that we have many guys with "potential" but we have 0 proven performers. If at least two of these potentially solid WR's do not emerge, we are going to have a tough time next year.

[balta1701-A]

Hester had such a good year that many here think that his role on the team should be special teams.

You know very well there are extenuating circumstances there.

[sulster]

Hester had such a good year that many here think that his role on the team should be special teams. I do not call ranked 17th in the NFC particularly solid....

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?arc...e&Submit=Go

 

Knox had a good rookie year but only just that....one good rookie year.

 

I am fully aware that we have many guys with "potential" but we have 0 proven performers. If at least two of these potentially solid WR's do not emerge, we are going to have a tough time next year.

 

How bout if Cutler cut his picks in half, then you wouldn't be saying anything. Lets not get silly say the receivers weren't productive.

[Daventry]

You know very well there are extenuating circumstances there.

 

 

I reckon that if Hester had showed Steve Smith type potential that no one would be talking about him going back to punt and/or kickoff returning.

[Daventry]

How bout if Cutler cut his picks in half, then you wouldn't be saying anything. Lets not get silly say the receivers weren't productive.

 

Cutler cutting his picks in half may have given a few more catches to some of the WR, maybe moving Hester up to 16th or 15th, but nothing significant.

 

I did not say that the receivers were not productive, what I said was that we have no real solid and dependable performers, no one to point to and really be sure what they will bring to the table. We have several guys with one year of significant playing time and Hester basically, with a few rookie hopefuls. I hope they do work out, and I understand if the team did not have the $ to spend more on the WR position, but to say that we are set at the position is ludicrous IMO. A good example of being set at the position to me is when the 49ers had Rice and Taylor.....

[madlithuanian]

Basically agreed. hester had some good numbers. But by default. No one else other than Knox was out there to catch balls.

 

Also, not mentioned are all the wrong route running and potential cause of a number of Cutler's turnovers...

 

He's a decent NFL receiver. Far from solid. He is like Hakim. Nice for a big gainer every now and then, but not a go to guy. I NICE compliment to a real WR.

 

Hester had such a good year that many here think that his role on the team should be special teams. I do not call ranked 17th in the NFC particularly solid....

 

[madlithuanian]

I'm thiking half those picks were Hester's fault for not running correct routes...

 

How bout if Cutler cut his picks in half, then you wouldn't be saying anything. Lets not get silly say the receivers weren't productive.

 

[defiantgiant]

Basically agreed. hester had some good numbers. But by default. No one else other than Knox was out there to catch balls.

That's not true. If I understand you right, you're saying that Hester's numbers were inflated because the other receivers weren't doing their jobs, so Cutler threw to Hester a lot and everybody else very little. Regardless of the other receivers' performance, that wasn't the case. Here's the number of times each Bears receiver (TEs and Forte included) got thrown to in 2009:

 

Devin Hester: 91 targets

Earl Bennett: 88 targets

Johnny Knox: 80 targets

Devin Aromashodu: 43 targets

Greg Olsen: 108 targets

Desmond Clark: 34 targets

Matt Forte: 72 targets

 

Hester's numbers weren't inflated by the lack of production from the other receivers. Just the opposite - Cutler was hurting Hester's numbers by spreading the ball around, when Hester was by far the most productive receiver on a per-target basis. The reason Hester put up pretty good numbers isn't that a huge number of passes went his way, it's that his catch percentage and YPC were both VERY solid. He did exceedingly well with what he got, despite the fact that Olsen, Bennett, Knox, and Forte were all significantly cutting into his targets.

 

Last season, a whopping 41 wide receivers got thrown to more often than Hester did. A lot of those guys weren't even the first option in their team's passing game. The Cardinals, Pats, Packers, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers, Seahawks, Giants, Bills, Jaguars, and Jets all had 2 receivers who EACH got more passes thrown to them than Hester. That includes everything from high-end #2 receivers (like Boldin, Hines Ward, Nate Burleson and Donald Driver) to middle-of-the-road guys (like Chris Chambers and Bernard Berrian) all the way down to guys like Torry Holt and Mario Manningham. All those guys got more targets than Hester, and we're not talking about just high-powered passing games, either (see Bills/Jets/Jaguars.)

 

If Hester had gotten as many targets as your average #1 receiver, he would have put up numbers like a #1. I'm thinking of Ocho Cinco's 128 targets: if Hester had been targeted 128 times, he'd have had 80 catches for 1065 yards. That's actually better than the numbers Ocho put up (72 catches, 1047 yards) on the same number of passes. If Ocho had only gotten 91 passes, like Hester did, he'd only have had 51 catches for 744 yards (compared to Hester's 57 for 757.)

 

Hester's numbers are pretty good not "by default," but because he made the best of fairly limited opportunities.

[defiantgiant]

EDIT: Double post.

[balta1701-A]

I reckon that if Hester had showed Steve Smith type potential that no one would be talking about him going back to punt and/or kickoff returning.

And if Hester wasn't close to the NFL record for return TD, no one would question his performance at receiver.

[madlithuanian]

That's just silly...

 

He was on target to potentially be the best return man in the history of professional football. It's a fact. So, anything that diminishes that should be questioned.

 

And if Hester wasn't close to the NFL record for return TD, no one would question his performance at receiver.

 

[madlithuanian]

That stats are appreciated. But I watch every game. Hester is such a physical talent, that his lack of knowing the position and its nuances are made up for by raw talent. However, that has a ceiling, and I think he's hit it.

 

I'm not arguing he put up numbers like a #1. Chad Johnson is a #1. Chad runs better routes, etc... He is a full on WR. Hester is a speedy guy with a lot of effort trying to be a #1 giving it his all. It's not the same.

 

I love hester. But I'd rather see him returning all kickas and contributing to the offense slightly less. I think Aromashodu is the more balanced and prototype WR, that given the chance most were calmmoring for, would put up similar if not better numbers than Hester's.

 

That's not true. If I understand you right, you're saying that Hester's numbers were inflated because the other receivers weren't doing their jobs, so Cutler threw to Hester a lot and everybody else very little. Regardless of the other receivers' performance, that wasn't the case. Here's the number of times each Bears receiver (TEs and Forte included) got thrown to in 2009:

 

Devin Hester: 91 targets

Earl Bennett: 88 targets

Johnny Knox: 80 targets

Devin Aromashodu: 43 targets

Greg Olsen: 108 targets

Desmond Clark: 34 targets

Matt Forte: 72 targets

 

Hester's numbers weren't inflated by the lack of production from the other receivers. Just the opposite - Cutler was hurting Hester's numbers by spreading the ball around, when Hester was by far the most productive receiver on a per-target basis. The reason Hester put up pretty good numbers isn't that a huge number of passes went his way, it's that his catch percentage and YPC were both VERY solid. He did exceedingly well with what he got, despite the fact that Olsen, Bennett, Knox, and Forte were all significantly cutting into his targets.

 

Last season, a whopping 41 wide receivers got thrown to more often than Hester did. A lot of those guys weren't even the first option in their team's passing game. The Cardinals, Pats, Packers, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers, Seahawks, Giants, Bills, Jaguars, and Jets all had 2 receivers who EACH got more passes thrown to them than Hester. That includes everything from high-end #2 receivers (like Boldin, Hines Ward, Nate Burleson and Donald Driver) to middle-of-the-road guys (like Chris Chambers and Bernard Berrian) all the way down to guys like Torry Holt and Mario Manningham. All those guys got more targets than Hester, and we're not talking about just high-powered passing games, either (see Bills/Jets/Jaguars.)

 

If Hester had gotten as many targets as your average #1 receiver, he would have put up numbers like a #1. I'm thinking of Ocho Cinco's 128 targets: if Hester had been targeted 128 times, he'd have had 80 catches for 1065 yards. That's actually better than the numbers Ocho put up (72 catches, 1047 yards) on the same number of passes. If Ocho had only gotten 91 passes, like Hester did, he'd only have had 51 catches for 744 yards (compared to Hester's 57 for 757.)

 

Hester's numbers are pretty good not "by default," but because he made the best of fairly limited opportunities.

 

[defiantgiant]

That stats are appreciated. But I watch every game.

I wasn't trying to imply that you don't, not at all. I'm just throwing the target numbers out there, since it's not a stat that ESPN or NFL.com reports and I think it's relevant. I was just pointing out that Hester's production isn't attributable to him being the only option in the passing game. Cutler spread the ball around a lot last season.

 

Hester is such a physical talent, that his lack of knowing the position and its nuances are made up for by raw talent. However, that has a ceiling, and I think he's hit it.

I totally agree, but I think that ceiling is pretty good. When I watched Hester play in 2008, he looked like a major project. He had trouble lining up, getting his routes right, etc. When I watched him in 2009, he looked like a 1000-to-1200-yard receiver who wasn't getting the ball enough. If that's all he ever turns into, I'm OK with that. He's not a superb technician by any means, and I don't think that's going to change. But he separates more easily out of his breaks than most NFL receivers, he sells his routes pretty well, and he's developed good hands.

 

I'm not arguing he put up numbers like a #1. Chad Johnson is a #1. Chad runs better routes, etc... He is a full on WR. Hester is a speedy guy with a lot of effort trying to be a #1 giving it his all. It's not the same.

I agree that Chad's a more polished receiver, but not all good receivers have to be polished. Look at Joey Galloway - he was a great threat just by virtue of being fast and athletic. Chad's great at setting up DBs, he's hard to jam at the line, and he's very physical after the catch, but Hester's much faster, way more sudden changing directions, and (surprisingly, to me) significantly more reliable catching the ball. Pound-for-pound, Hester and Chad are about equivalently productive in this stage of their careers, they just get it done in very different ways. Hester might never be as good as Chad when he was in his prime, but Chad in his prime was an All-Pro receiver. I don't think Hester has to be an All-Pro to be a valuable contributor on offense.

 

Also, Chad at his best had Housh lining up on the other side of the field. We haven't yet seen what Hester can do with a starting-quality wide receiver lining up across from him. In a top-tier passing game, there'd be another receiver at least as good as Hester in the starting lineup: #1, #2, whatever...there'd be another quality option. But that's an argument that we need the OTHER receiver spot to be better, not that we need Hester to be better. I think Hester's doing a much better job than people give him credit for, and if the rest of the passing game (Cutler, Olsen, the other receivers) could get in gear, Hester would be a solid #1 option or a great #2.

 

I love hester. But I'd rather see him returning all kickas and contributing to the offense slightly less. I think Aromashodu is the more balanced and prototype WR, that given the chance most were calmmoring for, would put up similar if not better numbers than Hester's.

Aromashodu is an exciting prospect, but I think he has a lot to prove. He wasn't as reliable catching the ball as Hester was, and over half of his production came in one game, where he was going up against Antoine Winfield's broken foot. Baltimore's less-than-great secondary held him to 2 catches for 10 yards, and he was starting that game. I like his potential, and I think he should be given every opportunity to nail down the starting job across from Hester, but he hasn't proven it yet. I just don't see any reason to reduce Hester's role in the offense when he's our most productive receiver: we need more production from the receiving corps, not less. Unless Aromashodu and Knox both develop into better receivers than Hester, which they aren't right now, the offense will get worse by reducing his role in the passing game.

[madlithuanian]

Sorry! I didn't mean to come off irritated! I was just saying, I was using more the "eyeball test" evaluating Hester's contribution to the team more than pure stats.

 

...and you are right, Cutler did spread the ball around. And I agree that he looked much better last year than the year previous. Hester is a threat, but I just feel he is not a "go to" guy.

 

I follow what you're saying about Johnson and Housh. I thnk we still need to find the Johnson to our Housh.

 

I'm hoping that guy is Aromashodu....

 

 

I wasn't trying to imply that you don't, not at all. I'm just throwing the target numbers out there, since it's not a stat that ESPN or NFL.com reports and I think it's relevant. I was just pointing out that Hester's production isn't attributable to him being the only option in the passing game. Cutler spread the ball around a lot last season.

 

 

I totally agree, but I think that ceiling is pretty good. When I watched Hester play in 2008, he looked like a major project. He had trouble lining up, getting his routes right, etc. When I watched him in 2009, he looked like a 1000-to-1200-yard receiver who wasn't getting the ball enough. If that's all he ever turns into, I'm OK with that. He's not a superb technician by any means, and I don't think that's going to change. But he separates more easily out of his breaks than most NFL receivers, he sells his routes pretty well, and he's developed good hands.

 

 

I agree that Chad's a more polished receiver, but not all good receivers have to be polished. Look at Joey Galloway - he was a great threat just by virtue of being fast and athletic. Chad's great at setting up DBs, he's hard to jam at the line, and he's very physical after the catch, but Hester's much faster, way more sudden changing directions, and (surprisingly, to me) significantly more reliable catching the ball. Pound-for-pound, Hester and Chad are about equivalently productive in this stage of their careers, they just get it done in very different ways. Hester might never be as good as Chad when he was in his prime, but Chad in his prime was an All-Pro receiver. I don't think Hester has to be an All-Pro to be a valuable contributor on offense.

 

Also, Chad at his best had Housh lining up on the other side of the field. We haven't yet seen what Hester can do with a starting-quality wide receiver lining up across from him. In a top-tier passing game, there'd be another receiver at least as good as Hester in the starting lineup: #1, #2, whatever...there'd be another quality option. But that's an argument that we need the OTHER receiver spot to be better, not that we need Hester to be better. I think Hester's doing a much better job than people give him credit for, and if the rest of the passing game (Cutler, Olsen, the other receivers) could get in gear, Hester would be a solid #1 option or a great #2.

 

 

Aromashodu is an exciting prospect, but I think he has a lot to prove. He wasn't as reliable catching the ball as Hester was, and over half of his production came in one game, where he was going up against Antoine Winfield's broken foot. Baltimore's less-than-great secondary held him to 2 catches for 10 yards, and he was starting that game. I like his potential, and I think he should be given every opportunity to nail down the starting job across from Hester, but he hasn't proven it yet. I just don't see any reason to reduce Hester's role in the offense when he's our most productive receiver: we need more production from the receiving corps, not less. Unless Aromashodu and Knox both develop into better receivers than Hester, which they aren't right now, the offense will get worse by reducing his role in the passing game.

 

[defiantgiant]

I follow what you're saying about Johnson and Housh. I thnk we still need to find the Johnson to our Housh.

 

I'm hoping that guy is Aromashodu....

If he is, that'll be huge, because the Bears don't have a high pick to spend. Aromashodu stepping up could solve a lot of problems.

 

If they could sign Atogwe or some other free safety and they don't think one of our current receivers can step up, I wouldn't mind Angelo taking a flyer on

in the 3rd or the 4th. He could easily fall that far, despite being a first-round talent. He reminds me a lot of Ocho Cinco, actually: big strong receiver, sets up his routes really well, hard to bring down after the catch and great in the red zone. If he can get his head on straight, he could be a huge steal in the middle rounds.

[madlithuanian]

Regarding the draft, I just think that you have to go with OL. The only exception would be if a safety fell that could contribute now. I like what the video you linked showed. I'm not sure I would be angry at the pick. I just think the OL needs more depth and we have to go towards a youth movement.

 

 

 

If he is, that'll be huge, because the Bears don't have a high pick to spend. Aromashodu stepping up could solve a lot of problems.

 

If they could sign Atogwe or some other free safety and they don't think one of our current receivers can step up, I wouldn't mind Angelo taking a flyer on

in the 3rd or the 4th. He could easily fall that far, despite being a first-round talent. He reminds me a lot of Ocho Cinco, actually: big strong receiver, sets up his routes really well, hard to bring down after the catch and great in the red zone. If he can get his head on straight, he could be a huge steal in the middle rounds.

 

[nfoligno]

You know I am always for the OL, but I would add the DL. At the end of the day, I simply think we need to work on our trenches, both sides.

 

For the OL, we have Williams, but frankly, all are question marks (long term) after that. I think we can pass on a center as I believe Beekman could start, but honestly, I think long term we could use 2 OGs and 1 OT. It is possible a player or two on the roster is in fact part of the long term picture, but I have seen little to offer evidence as to such, thus I don't think you can plan on it.

 

At the same time though, despite the addition of Peppers, our DL is still a question mark, especially now we the dumping of Brown. Anderson was great as a rookie pass rush specialist, but bombed as a starter, and while he showed flashes last year, I am shocked that is considered enough to warrant a starting job. Idonije to me is AP. A nice backup, or even rotation player, but NOT a player I want to rely on heading into a season. At DT, we have Harris, who is a shell of his pro bowl self. We have Harrison, who has shown little to nothing. We have Adams, who I like but the staff doesn't. We have Melton, who I still view as a project little should be counted on. And we have Gilbert, who couldn't even get on the field last year. There may be some players who fans can hope for a good year, but I don't see a lot of evidence, and for a scheme that relies on the front four (as do most frankly) we don't have that much to base expectations on.

 

After the trenches, I would look at the secondary. We all know we need a FS, but CB to me is right behind FS in terms of need. Tillman has been fading, and while we got a decent season from Bowman, he is no sure thing and still an injury concern IMHO. After these two, we have NOTHING!

 

I am not saying we have proven studs at WR, but anyway I look at it, I see more reason for hope at WR than I do at OL, DL, FS or CB.

 

Regarding the draft, I just think that you have to go with OL. The only exception would be if a safety fell that could contribute now. I like what the video you linked showed. I'm not sure I would be angry at the pick. I just think the OL needs more depth and we have to go towards a youth movement.

 

[madlithuanian]

Basically agreed.

 

We honestly have too little to work with in the draft o address all needs.

 

I could see them going DL... It's probably a position that should in theory translate more smoothly to the pros, thus contributing "right now" moreso than an OL.

 

Sceondary is a concern as well as you mention. But I do like what I saw from some of the young guys if they can stay healthy.

 

Seriously, there are too many flaws to address in the draft. I just hope we can hit paydirt on at least one solid contributor.

 

You know I am always for the OL, but I would add the DL. At the end of the day, I simply think we need to work on our trenches, both sides.

 

For the OL, we have Williams, but frankly, all are question marks (long term) after that. I think we can pass on a center as I believe Beekman could start, but honestly, I think long term we could use 2 OGs and 1 OT. It is possible a player or two on the roster is in fact part of the long term picture, but I have seen little to offer evidence as to such, thus I don't think you can plan on it.

 

At the same time though, despite the addition of Peppers, our DL is still a question mark, especially now we the dumping of Brown. Anderson was great as a rookie pass rush specialist, but bombed as a starter, and while he showed flashes last year, I am shocked that is considered enough to warrant a starting job. Idonije to me is AP. A nice backup, or even rotation player, but NOT a player I want to rely on heading into a season. At DT, we have Harris, who is a shell of his pro bowl self. We have Harrison, who has shown little to nothing. We have Adams, who I like but the staff doesn't. We have Melton, who I still view as a project little should be counted on. And we have Gilbert, who couldn't even get on the field last year. There may be some players who fans can hope for a good year, but I don't see a lot of evidence, and for a scheme that relies on the front four (as do most frankly) we don't have that much to base expectations on.

 

After the trenches, I would look at the secondary. We all know we need a FS, but CB to me is right behind FS in terms of need. Tillman has been fading, and while we got a decent season from Bowman, he is no sure thing and still an injury concern IMHO. After these two, we have NOTHING!

 

I am not saying we have proven studs at WR, but anyway I look at it, I see more reason for hope at WR than I do at OL, DL, FS or CB.