Profootballfocus Study on Drops

[defiantgiant]

Profootballfocus just did a study tabulating how many "catchable" passes were dropped by each receiver and TE last season: they watched each pass themselves and classified a pass as "catchable" if the receiver could get his hands on it and you would "reasonably expect it to be caught" - so passes deflected, slips, and passes thrown where the receiver could only get a fingertip on the ball wouldn't count. It's a narrow category, but it gives you an idea, for each guy, of how many passes he dropped that he absolutely should have caught.

 

It looks like they only discuss the best and worst guys in the league, so the Bears' wide receivers are all missing in action in the study. They must all be somewhere in the middle. Some formers Bears don't look so good, though: Mark Bradley dropped fully 25% of the passes that hit him in the hands, making him the dropsiest receiver in the league. Bobby Wade and Justin Gage weren't far behind.

 

The tight ends part of the study features one guy we've been talking a lot about, though: Greg Olsen dropped only TWO of the 61 catchable passes thrown to him - that's a 3.28% drop percentage, good for fourth-best in the league among TEs. He was more reliable, by this metric, than Jason Witten, Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Chris Cooley, Jeremy Shockey...basically all the best receiving TEs in the league. He may not have made the plays that those guys did, but he wasn't dropping the football. I've definitely been frustrated with Olsen in the past (as I think a lot of us have) for the catches he hasn't made, but whatever the problem is, it ain't his hands. Now if they could just do a study on fighting-the-DB-for-the-ball percentage, maybe we'd have a better idea about why Olsen hasn't lived up to his potential yet.

[nfoligno]

Yea, Olsen doesn't have bad hands. He actually has very good hands. He made some tough catches in traffic. I recall a couple end of game drives that he was making very crucial catches. They were not downfield or considered big plays, but they were first downs that moved the chains and kept drives alive.

 

I think Olsen is solid in terms of running routes and hands. Two areas I think he has struggled are:

 

One. Blocking. Yea, this one is very well known. I don't think Olsen ever really had to block at Miami. While he will likely never be that good of a blocker, there are a couple things to consider. While he lacks in this department, I have never once read that he is an unwilling blocker. There are some who simply play scared. I don't think that is the case with Olsen. Also, we just added Tice, who is considered very good in terms of OL and TEs, and hopefully can help develop Olsen in terms of blocking. Finally, Martz system aside, I don't think there is an expectation for Olsen to ever become "that" good of a blocker. Few top tier receiving TEs are also considered good blockers.

 

Two. He needs to better use his size. There are players who are not that big, but play big. They do very well timing jumps. They block the other player well, and position themselves well. Olsen doesn't do this. I read one person who said he he may be big, but he plays very small. He really needs to work in this area.

 

Finally, a big point IMHO when it comes to Olsen still goes back to how he has been used. Part of this is Turner, and part is due to how ineffective our overall protection has been. Olsen was drafted to be a TE that could stretch the field. He was drafted due to his athleticism and speed. He is a tough matchup for a LB to stay with downfield. But our pass protection has been so bad since he joined the team that he has been used far more on short routes. If we send him downfield, the QB would be on his arce before Olsen could make a play, thus he is used more like a possession TE, which is a waste of his strengths. If we improve our OL blocking, I think we may well see Olsen become an upper tier TE. To me, more than blocking or anything else, what Olsen lacks is downfield opportunities. Give him that, and I think fans would see the reason he was taken in the first round.

 

Profootballfocus just did a study tabulating how many "catchable" passes were dropped by each receiver and TE last season: they watched each pass themselves and classified a pass as "catchable" if the receiver could get his hands on it and you would "reasonably expect it to be caught" - so passes deflected, slips, and passes thrown where the receiver could only get a fingertip on the ball wouldn't count. It's a narrow category, but it gives you an idea, for each guy, of how many passes he dropped that he absolutely should have caught.

 

It looks like they only discuss the best and worst guys in the league, so the Bears' wide receivers are all missing in action in the study. They must all be somewhere in the middle. Some formers Bears don't look so good, though: Mark Bradley dropped fully 25% of the passes that hit him in the hands, making him the dropsiest receiver in the league. Bobby Wade and Justin Gage weren't far behind.

 

The tight ends part of the study features one guy we've been talking a lot about, though: Greg Olsen dropped only TWO of the 61 catchable passes thrown to him - that's a 3.28% drop percentage, good for fourth-best in the league among TEs. He was more reliable, by this metric, than Jason Witten, Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Chris Cooley, Jeremy Shockey...basically all the best receiving TEs in the league. He may not have made the plays that those guys did, but he wasn't dropping the football. I've definitely been frustrated with Olsen in the past (as I think a lot of us have) for the catches he hasn't made, but whatever the problem is, it ain't his hands. Now if they could just do a study on fighting-the-DB-for-the-ball percentage, maybe we'd have a better idea about why Olsen hasn't lived up to his potential yet.

 

[madlithuanian]

Interesting! Thanks for the post!

 

Profootballfocus just did a study tabulating how many "catchable" passes were dropped by each receiver and TE last season: they watched each pass themselves and classified a pass as "catchable" if the receiver could get his hands on it and you would "reasonably expect it to be caught" - so passes deflected, slips, and passes thrown where the receiver could only get a fingertip on the ball wouldn't count. It's a narrow category, but it gives you an idea, for each guy, of how many passes he dropped that he absolutely should have caught.

 

It looks like they only discuss the best and worst guys in the league, so the Bears' wide receivers are all missing in action in the study. They must all be somewhere in the middle. Some formers Bears don't look so good, though: Mark Bradley dropped fully 25% of the passes that hit him in the hands, making him the dropsiest receiver in the league. Bobby Wade and Justin Gage weren't far behind.

 

The tight ends part of the study features one guy we've been talking a lot about, though: Greg Olsen dropped only TWO of the 61 catchable passes thrown to him - that's a 3.28% drop percentage, good for fourth-best in the league among TEs. He was more reliable, by this metric, than Jason Witten, Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Chris Cooley, Jeremy Shockey...basically all the best receiving TEs in the league. He may not have made the plays that those guys did, but he wasn't dropping the football. I've definitely been frustrated with Olsen in the past (as I think a lot of us have) for the catches he hasn't made, but whatever the problem is, it ain't his hands. Now if they could just do a study on fighting-the-DB-for-the-ball percentage, maybe we'd have a better idea about why Olsen hasn't lived up to his potential yet.

 

[AZ54]

I agree Olsen is lacking in blocking skills but we have to cut him a bit of slack on this because it's the coaches choice on how a guy is used. There are only so many practice reps and meetings to go around. TEs are required to attend meetings with the WRs and meetings with the Oline. Likewise they have to split their practice reps. Over the last couple years Lovie and Turner decided to use Olsen as a: TE, H-back, FB, and WR. That means he had to split his practice reps between a lot of positions. Exactly how many practice reps did Olsen get to work on his blocking?

 

I like Olsen and I like his work ethic. He's done everything the Bears have asked him to do and he has been a good player for us. I see lots of posts about how Martz will use Olsen and hoping he won't just keep him in to block. After thinking about it, I have to say keeping Olsen as just a TE (leave out the WR responsibilities) could be the best thing for him. I think the H-back role is going to be part of his job too. Go ahead and let him take half of his practice reps learning how to block better. I think if he's challenged and given the time to work on it he will improve quite a bit in his blocking skills. We already know he can run pass routes.

 

 

[defiantgiant]

Go ahead and let him take half of his practice reps learning how to block better. I think if he's challenged and given the time to work on it he will improve quite a bit in his blocking skills. We already know he can run pass routes.

Yeah, and even if he's not great at it, he's been steadily improving as a blocker since he came in the league. His blocking skills were effectively zero when we drafted him; I remember an interview where he said that in his rookie year, Clark and the other TEs used to crack jokes about how bad a blocker he was. Then he talked about how he's been working on his footwork, hand placement, leverage...all the things you need when you don't have the body type to just bulldoze a guy.

 

I think Des Clark is a great example for Olsen. Clark came into the league as a wide receiver, and he's still pretty small (sub-250 pounds) for a TE. But he's worked himself into a great blocker, and I think a lot of it is just really sound technique. If Olsen can do the same, he'll be a really complete TE.

[nfoligno]

For me, it still always comes back to mental side of it. Sorry, but a guy that big and athletic....If he wants to block, he can learn to block. Blocking is not the sort of "skill" that can not be taught. That is not to say anyone can learn to be a pro bowl blocker, but if a person is willing, he can learn to be effective.

 

That is the key though. Willing. Two key areas IMHO here. One is, you have to be willing to put the time and effort into the learning part. On this point, I have never heard a single comment that Olsen is a slacker or poor student. I have never heard that he skips or shows up late to practice, or that he gives anything but 100% Tuesday through Saturday.

 

The other point is willing to take the body pounding felt when blocking. I have never heard he wasn't willing to get physical. In fact, I would point to some of the catches we saw him make last year. Though drafted for his speed and downfield ability, he often played over the middle for us, and made a lot of catches in traffic. I don't recall him alligator arming the passes. I don't recall him blowing plays as he prepared for the hit. I don't recall him going down at the first sign of a tackler. Players who do this are less likely to get excited about laying out a player on a block.

 

So Olsen has the size. He is a willing student. And he appears willing to deal with the physical demands. Now for we upgrade (big time IMHO) our OL (and thus blocking) coaching. Willing and talented student meets good teacher. Recipe for success.

 

Again, I am not saying he will ever become a great blocker, but I think he can be good enough that it is not talked about so often as a weakness. Gates, Gonzalez, Witten and most other receiving TEs are not good blockers, but you don't hear about it so often because they are such good receivers AND because they learned to block well enough that it wasn't considered a joke.

 

Yeah, and even if he's not great at it, he's been steadily improving as a blocker since he came in the league. His blocking skills were effectively zero when we drafted him; I remember an interview where he said that in his rookie year, Clark and the other TEs used to crack jokes about how bad a blocker he was. Then he talked about how he's been working on his footwork, hand placement, leverage...all the things you need when you don't have the body type to just bulldoze a guy.

 

I think Des Clark is a great example for Olsen. Clark came into the league as a wide receiver, and he's still pretty small (sub-250 pounds) for a TE. But he's worked himself into a great blocker, and I think a lot of it is just really sound technique. If Olsen can do the same, he'll be a really complete TE.

 

[flea]

Profootballfocus just did a study tabulating how many "catchable" passes were dropped by each receiver and TE last season: they watched each pass themselves and classified a pass as "catchable" if the receiver could get his hands on it and you would "reasonably expect it to be caught" - so passes deflected, slips, and passes thrown where the receiver could only get a fingertip on the ball wouldn't count. It's a narrow category, but it gives you an idea, for each guy, of how many passes he dropped that he absolutely should have caught.

 

It looks like they only discuss the best and worst guys in the league, so the Bears' wide receivers are all missing in action in the study. They must all be somewhere in the middle. Some formers Bears don't look so good, though: Mark Bradley dropped fully 25% of the passes that hit him in the hands, making him the dropsiest receiver in the league. Bobby Wade and Justin Gage weren't far behind.

 

The tight ends part of the study features one guy we've been talking a lot about, though: Greg Olsen dropped only TWO of the 61 catchable passes thrown to him - that's a 3.28% drop percentage, good for fourth-best in the league among TEs. He was more reliable, by this metric, than Jason Witten, Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Chris Cooley, Jeremy Shockey...basically all the best receiving TEs in the league. He may not have made the plays that those guys did, but he wasn't dropping the football. I've definitely been frustrated with Olsen in the past (as I think a lot of us have) for the catches he hasn't made, but whatever the problem is, it ain't his hands. Now if they could just do a study on fighting-the-DB-for-the-ball percentage, maybe we'd have a better idea about why Olsen hasn't lived up to his potential yet.

 

 

I think you can see the full list on their forum.

[AZ54]

Seems like that positive attitude and work ethic just showed up:

 

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http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2010/04/ol..._has_no_is.html

 

Olsen breaks silence; has no issues

By Sean Jensen on April 9, 2010 11:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

Greg Olsen broke his silence on his personal Twitter account.

"So far I have a great feeling about my role this year," he wrote. "I have no desire to play anywhere but in Chicago. That was purely media speculation."

 

He added he would put his pass blocking against any other tight end.

 

"Those reports have been blown out of proportion," he wrote.

 

Olsen said Brandon Manumaleuna a was a great addition, noting how well he complemented Antonio Gates.

 

As for his goals: "Win division and make deep playoff run to SB. finish in top 5 in catches

and TDs."

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