LT2_3 Posted November 10, 2011 Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 I was reading something somewhere and the author (as a smart ass) asked what percentage our offense Forte provided. As a smart ass back, I asked if the guy was asking about yardage or scoring. That got me to thinking that since Forte is asking for elite money and I've always felt that his drawback as a RB was that he doesn't make it into the end zone as often as other backs. So this sent me off on a quest: to see how Forte's percentage of team scoring vs. other RBs in the league. I calculated this by going to http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ and scrolled down to the bottom of each team page, and calculated the number of points scored by each RB as a percentage of the teams' total scoring. Now this isn't a perfect comparison because some teams share their RB load, and some of these guys have had injuries. That being said, Forte hasn't missed a game so his percentage should be directly proportional. Here's what I found: A Peterson 35% Vikes L McCoy 33% Eagles S Jackson 31% Rams R Rice 23% Ravens M Turner 22% Falcons M Lynch 20% Seahawks A Bradshaw 19% Giants M Tolbert 18% Chargers M Jones-Drew 18% Jaguars D McFadden 16% Raiders F Gore 15% 49ers F Jackson 15% Bills A Foster 15% Texans W McGahee 15% Broncos B Green-Ellis 14% Patriots R Mendenhall 12% Steelers D Sproles 12% Saints L Blount 12% Bucs P Hillis 10% Browns M Forte 9% Bears I think it says something (what I don't know) that Forte is below guys like Foster, Hillis, and McFadden that have been injured, and that he's also below guys that split time like Sproles. Just something I thought I'd put out there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted November 10, 2011 Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 Interesting for sure. I wonder if much of that rests on Forte or in poor play calling once in the red zone. I'd be curious to see what his numbers would be for this season starting with 3 games ago... Hell, I had Ray Rice last year in fantasy and he couldn't find the end zone at all. Now, he's in a lot. I was reading something somewhere and the author (as a smart ass) asked what percentage our offense Forte provided. As a smart ass back, I asked if the guy was asking about yardage or scoring. That got me to thinking that since Forte is asking for elite money and I've always felt that his drawback as a RB was that he doesn't make it into the end zone as often as other backs. So this sent me off on a quest: to see how Forte's percentage of team scoring vs. other RBs in the league. I calculated this by going to http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ and scrolled down to the bottom of each team page, and calculated the number of points scored by each RB as a percentage of the teams' total scoring. Now this isn't a perfect comparison because some teams share their RB load, and some of these guys have had injuries. That being said, Forte hasn't missed a game so his percentage should be directly proportional. Here's what I found: A Peterson 35% Vikes L McCoy 33% Eagles S Jackson 31% Rams R Rice 23% Ravens M Turner 22% Falcons M Lynch 20% Seahawks A Bradshaw 19% Giants M Tolbert 18% Chargers M Jones-Drew 18% Jaguars D McFadden 16% Raiders F Gore 15% 49ers F Jackson 15% Bills A Foster 15% Texans W McGahee 15% Broncos B Green-Ellis 14% Patriots R Mendenhall 12% Steelers D Sproles 12% Saints L Blount 12% Bucs P Hillis 10% Browns M Forte 9% Bears I think it says something (what I don't know) that Forte is below guys like Foster, Hillis, and McFadden that have been injured, and that he's also below guys that split time like Sproles. Just something I thought I'd put out there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LT2_3 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 Interesting for sure. I wonder if much of that rests on Forte or in poor play calling once in the red zone. I'd be curious to see what his numbers would be for this season starting with 3 games ago... Hell, I had Ray Rice last year in fantasy and he couldn't find the end zone at all. Now, he's in a lot. I think most of it is that he's a big back that runs upright. When things get compressed down by the goal line, he doesn't do as well as smaller guys that run lower to the ground. That's why Barber gets most of the short yardage carries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted November 10, 2011 Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 I do agree. It's pretty much a perfect 1-2 punch with him and Barber. Given the league now, and "TD stealers", I wonder if you could compile stats for the position by team. I would be curious which "running attack" regardless of who's carrying it.... I think most of it is that he's a big back that runs upright. When things get compressed down by the goal line, he doesn't do as well as smaller guys that run lower to the ground. That's why Barber gets most of the short yardage carries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LT2_3 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 I do agree. It's pretty much a perfect 1-2 punch with him and Barber. Given the league now, and "TD stealers", I wonder if you could compile stats for the position by team. I would be curious which "running attack" regardless of who's carrying it.... Ok - I'll do the top half of the league. Now keep in mind that this is purely rushing TDs and doesn't include receiving TDs - but that's what you asked for - to look at "TD stealers" Minnesota Vikings 11 A Peterson 9 P Harvin 1 D McNabb 1 Carolina Panthers 10 C Newton 7 J Stewart 2 D Williams 1 Houston Texans 10 A Foster 5 M Schaub 2 B Tate 2 Oakland Raiders 10 D McFadden 4 M Bush 3 D Moore 1 J Campbell 2 Philadelphia Eagles 10 L McCoy 9 R Brown 1 Atlanta Falcons 9 M Turner 7 M Ryan 2 New Orleans Saints 9 M Ingram 3 D Sproles 2 J Collins 2 P Thomas 2 New York Giants 9 A Bradshaw 5 B Jacobs 3 E Manning 1 San Diego Chargers 9 M Tolbert 4 R Matthews 3 C Brinkley 1 P Rivers 1 Arizona Cardinals 8 C Wells 7 A Smith 1 Baltimore Ravens 8 R Rice 6 R Williams 1 J Flacco 1 Buffalo Bills 8 F Jackson 6 C Spiller 1 B Smith 1 San Francisco 49ers 8 F Gore 5 A Dixon 1 K Hunter 1 A Smith 1 Chicago Bears 6 M Barber 4 M Forte 2 New England Patriots 6 B Green-Ellis 5 S Ridley 1 New York Jets 6 S Greene 2 M Sanchez 2 L Tomlinson 1 J Conner 1 So, in the top half of the league, there are only 3 instances where the player with the most rushing TDs isn't also the leading rusher: Carolina with Newton/Williams, San Diego with Tolbert/Matthews, and Bears Barber/Forte. It's not very prevalent, but it shows that at the most, Forte's contract should be based closer to DeAngleo Williams' contract and even then you have to question whether Williams is worth the deal he got based on his performance currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted November 10, 2011 Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 Thanks for that info! It is interesting. I think your assessment to D Williams is pretty spot on. Ok - I'll do the top half of the league. Now keep in mind that this is purely rushing TDs and doesn't include receiving TDs - but that's what you asked for - to look at "TD stealers" Minnesota Vikings 11 A Peterson 9 P Harvin 1 D McNabb 1 Carolina Panthers 10 C Newton 7 J Stewart 2 D Williams 1 Houston Texans 10 A Foster 5 M Schaub 2 B Tate 2 Oakland Raiders 10 D McFadden 4 M Bush 3 D Moore 1 J Campbell 2 Philadelphia Eagles 10 L McCoy 9 R Brown 1 Atlanta Falcons 9 M Turner 7 M Ryan 2 New Orleans Saints 9 M Ingram 3 D Sproles 2 J Collins 2 P Thomas 2 New York Giants 9 A Bradshaw 5 B Jacobs 3 E Manning 1 San Diego Chargers 9 M Tolbert 4 R Matthews 3 C Brinkley 1 P Rivers 1 Arizona Cardinals 8 C Wells 7 A Smith 1 Baltimore Ravens 8 R Rice 6 R Williams 1 J Flacco 1 Buffalo Bills 8 F Jackson 6 C Spiller 1 B Smith 1 San Francisco 49ers 8 F Gore 5 A Dixon 1 K Hunter 1 A Smith 1 Chicago Bears 6 M Barber 4 M Forte 2 New England Patriots 6 B Green-Ellis 5 S Ridley 1 New York Jets 6 S Greene 2 M Sanchez 2 L Tomlinson 1 J Conner 1 So, in the top half of the league, there are only 3 instances where the player with the most rushing TDs isn't also the leading rusher: Carolina with Newton/Williams, San Diego with Tolbert/Matthews, and Bears Barber/Forte. It's not very prevalent, but it shows that at the most, Forte's contract should be based closer to DeAngleo Williams' contract and even then you have to question whether Williams is worth the deal he got based on his performance currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted November 10, 2011 Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 Stats are like one of my favorite sayings; "The greatest lie of all is the truth cleverly told". Forte's stats indicate hes the best in the league and one of the worst. It's how the stats are interpreted by film and what the offensive scheme is demanding. How is the player at practice, the locker room and community? Is the player picking up blocks, first downs and doing the dirty work to get your team in the red zone? How many wins did this player have a direct impact in? Forte should get a top 5 RB contact. How hard has it been for us to find a guy like this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Hochuli 3:16 Posted November 10, 2011 Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 Saying TD's for a player is important is like saying wins for a pitcher are. If a pitcher has a 3.5 ERA and is 4-8, is that his fault? Perhaps, but it most likely means his run support is terrible. In this case, you guys have covered it. Barber is the goal line and short yardage back. It seems like Martz always gives Forte a run when it gets to 1st and goal, but that usually results ina 1-4 yard gain. At that point, he takes no more chances and puts in Barber. Forte does enough to get the ball down to where the Bears can score. It would be nice to see him get rewarded with a score here and there, but as long as he keeps putting the Bears in position for TD's, I'll take that instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selection7 Posted November 10, 2011 Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 Barry Sanders would get taken out at the goal line and he was 5'8" and probably the best pure runner in the history of the NFL. I think most of the problem is just that we have a talented, prototypical short yardage power back available. If he's not capable of being as good as Forte in at least that one area, we need a better backup. Using Barber keeps Forte fresh, so there's some strategy involved. But there may be something dirty too. It occurs to me that the Bears may see it as making Forte less valuable on the FA market by limiting his TDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TerraTor Posted November 10, 2011 Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 Barry Sanders would get taken out at the goal line and he was 5'8" and probably the best pure runner in the history of the NFL. I think most of the problem is just that we have a talented, prototypical short yardage power back available. If he's not capable of being as good as Forte in at least that one area, we need a better backup. Using Barber keeps Forte fresh, so there's some strategy involved. But there may be something dirty too. It occurs to me that the Bears may see it as making Forte less valuable on the FA market by limiting his TDs. That's something i was pondering too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selection7 Posted November 10, 2011 Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 That's something i was pondering too. No doubt Forte is too. Last year in Denver, Orton would get the offense down the field, then McDaniels would put in Tebow at the goal line. So it can even happen to QBs, lol, though I'd never actually seen it before that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LT2_3 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2011 Don't get me wrong guys, I love Forte and wouldn't trade Forte for any of those guys (except AP of course). The idea that they would be limiting his carries at the goal line is kinda silly considering it wouldn't affect his pay under the Franchise tag for the next couple years. I hope you guys realize that the context for bringing this up is in regards to his value in a new contract. The point is that if people are going to point at his stats like % of offense, then they should look at ALL the stats. While he's been great between the 20s, he hasn't taken more than 3 ALL THE WAY even with the ridiculous number of touches that he gets. The bottom line is that Forte should temper his expectations if he expects a long term deal. I think his contract should be based on the 5 year $43 mil contract with $21 mil guaranteed that DeAngelo Williams signed prior to the season with a few minor tweaks to represent the fact that Forte is still under contract and can be franchised while Williams was a complete free agent at the time. The major obstacle in these negotiations is that Forte seems to think that he deserves about $30 mil in guaranteed money. He needs to get over that unless he's happy with getting the franchise tag for the next 2 years and getting no money upfront. People say "Pay the man!" and I agree with the sentiment. However, it should be noted that Forte is being ridiculously unreasonable with what he's asking for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted November 11, 2011 Report Share Posted November 11, 2011 Don't get me wrong guys, I love Forte and wouldn't trade Forte for any of those guys (except AP of course). The idea that they would be limiting his carries at the goal line is kinda silly considering it wouldn't affect his pay under the Franchise tag for the next couple years. I hope you guys realize that the context for bringing this up is in regards to his value in a new contract. The point is that if people are going to point at his stats like % of offense, then they should look at ALL the stats. While he's been great between the 20s, he hasn't taken more than 3 ALL THE WAY even with the ridiculous number of touches that he gets. The bottom line is that Forte should temper his expectations if he expects a long term deal. I think his contract should be based on the 5 year $43 mil contract with $21 mil guaranteed that DeAngelo Williams signed prior to the season with a few minor tweaks to represent the fact that Forte is still under contract and can be franchised while Williams was a complete free agent at the time. The major obstacle in these negotiations is that Forte seems to think that he deserves about $30 mil in guaranteed money. He needs to get over that unless he's happy with getting the franchise tag for the next 2 years and getting no money upfront. People say "Pay the man!" and I agree with the sentiment. However, it should be noted that Forte is being ridiculously unreasonable with what he's asking for. What are the details of what he it's asking? I've not heard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted November 11, 2011 Report Share Posted November 11, 2011 The major obstacle in these negotiations is that Forte seems to think that he deserves about $30 mil in guaranteed money. He needs to get over that unless he's happy with getting the franchise tag for the next 2 years and getting no money upfront. People say "Pay the man!" and I agree with the sentiment. However, it should be noted that Forte is being ridiculously unreasonable with what he's asking for. As I am a big proponent of "paying the man" I understand that he does need to look at the big picture. By going the Franchise Tag route he puts himself in a high risk, low reward position. Because the Tag can be applied at one year intervals for the next two, he could risk becoming injured and dramatically losing value and relevance. (All of which I hope never happens). Now I'm not advocating he 'settle' on something just to get it done but again look at what the Bears offered last Fall and work from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LT2_3 Posted November 11, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2011 What are the details of what he it's asking? I've not heard. The precise details haven't been disclosed, but the consensus opinion of some of the talking heads come off that the Bears had raised their offer on guaranteed money and feel they are still about $10 million apart. Their initial offer was $14 mill guaranteed, so that means that Forte is expecting around $27-$30 million guaranteed. It's really speculative, but it comes from a few different sources. As I've said, Forte needs to realize that he has no leverage and is being unrealistic with his current demands. I, for one, am sick of hearing about it. He needs to either lower his expectations and cut a deal, or stop talking to the media about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selection7 Posted November 11, 2011 Report Share Posted November 11, 2011 Don't get me wrong guys, I love Forte and wouldn't trade Forte for any of those guys (except AP of course). The idea that they would be limiting his carries at the goal line is kinda silly considering it wouldn't affect his pay under the Franchise tag for the next couple years. The less value Forte has on the market, the less he will ask for. This is because if Forte asks for more than what the market will bear on a longterm deal, the Bears know they can get away with not caving because no other team will pay him that either. In other words, though it does matter that he's sure to be tagged if an agreement can't be reached, that doesn't mean it completely negates the whole supply and demand thing. I don't think that qualifies as "silly", though point taken that Forte really only has the Bears to negotiate with, and Forte and the Bears both know well about him being deprived of goal line opportunities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LT2_3 Posted November 11, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2011 The less value Forte has on the market, the less he will ask for. This is because if Forte asks for more than what the market will bear on a longterm deal, the Bears know they can get away with not caving because no other team will pay him that either. In other words, though it does matter that he's sure to be tagged if an agreement can't be reached, that doesn't mean it completely negates the whole supply and demand thing. It actually negates the supply and demand thing because there is no supply. Forte is off the market. He has no leverage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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