Lucky Luciano Posted April 22, 2012 Report Share Posted April 22, 2012 below are some statistics i compiled for the old board about 8 years ago and i have updated the information to date, pre-draft 2012. it lists all players drafted in slots 1-20 in the first round and how they compare to obtaining a quality player drafting in these slots. feel free if you wish to copy this information for your own records but please acknowledge where you got them from as it was an incredible amount of work putting this together. thanks, Lucky Luciano my conclusions after looking at the statistics below i know i am not so sure i wouldn't consider trading up EVERY year into the top 10 if you want the odds on your side with selecting a quality player. below are some interesting facts: 1) over a 29 year period there were 580 picks in slots 1-20 2) 134 were quality picks in slots 1-10 or 23% of the players picked 3) 77 were quality picks in slots 11-20 or 13% of the players picked 4) that makes it a 10% better chance to land a better player in slots 1-10 than 11-20 in the first round. the data below reads as follows: YEAR - NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM PICKS 1-10 - NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM PICKS 11-20 1979 - 6 - 1 1980 - 5 - 3 1981 - 7 - 2 1982 - 5 - 2 1983 - 8 - 2 1984 - 3 - 3 * 1985 - 7 - 2 1986 - 4 - 1 1987 - 5 - 1 1988 - 6 - 7 ** 1989 - 4 - 1 1990 - 4 - 3 1991 - 3 - 0 1992 - 3 - 3 * 1993 - 5 - 1 1994 - 5 - 4 1995 - 4 - 5 ** 1996 - 5 - 2 1997 - 5 - 3 1998 - 2 - 3 ** 1999 - 7 - 2 2000 - 4 - 6 ** 2001 - 5 - 3 2002 - 3 - 3 * 2003 - 7 - 2 2004 - 5 - 4 2005 - 1 - 4 ** 2006 - 3 - 2 2007 - 3 - 2 TOTAL 134 - 77 21 out of 29 times there were MORE quality players selected 1-10 than in slots 11-20. *3 times they were even **only 5 times in 29 years were there more pro bowl/all-pro players picked in slots 11-20. i used data for 29 years from 1979 to 2007 inclusive. i did not go further than 2007 as the time frame would be not be long enough to determine any significant figures. over time some of these figures will change and have to be adjusted. i also am using figures from picks 1-20 in the first round only to determine the value of drafting in the top 10 as compared to picking in the next 10 slots. although i haven't tallied up the differences in slots 21-32 i believe the numbers would be considerably lower. anyone who feels like doing the work is welcome to dispute that statement. i went through an incredible amount of data to get these stats. all data was figured from players who had at LEAST two forms of award. EXAMPLE.. a player that had 1 pro bowl and 1 all-pro made the list, a player that was selected for 2 pro-bowls made the list, a player who was selected as all-pro (or all-nfl) twice made the list, and multiples of the above. im no math expert by any means and if anyone see's any errors post them and/or i will post the players along with data. any who want can do the math on their own as it is possible i missed someone or added one by mistake. if you find any that dont jive let me know. =========== listed below are the players that i used for the stats above from 1979 - 2007. how long did this take to compile this data you ask? days! ap = ALL-PRO pb = PRO BOWL >> 1979 - 6 - 1 - top 5 = 3 >> 1 Tom Cousineau Bills LB Ohio State - 2 ap >> 2 Mike Bell Chiefs DE Colorado State 3 Jack Thompson Bengals QB Washington State >> 4 Dan Hampton Bears DT Arkansas - 4 pb - 1 ap >> 5 Jerry Butler Bills WR Clemson - 1 pb - 1 ap 6 Barry Krauss Colts LB Alabama >> 7 Phil Simms Giants QB Morehead State - 2 pb - 1 ap >> 8 Ottis Anderson Cardinals RB Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 2 ap 9 Al Harris Bears DE Arizona State >> 10 Keith Dorney Lions T Penn State - 1 pb - 2 ap -------------------------------------------------- 11 Russell Erxleben Saints K Texas 12 Charles Alexander Bengals RB LSU >> 13 Kellen Winslow Chargers TE Missouri - 5 pb - 3 ap 14 Marty Lyons Jets DE Alabama 15 Eddie Lee Ivery Packers RB Georgia Tech 16 Ted Brown Vikings RB North Carolina State 17 Don Smith Falcons DE Miami (FL) - 1 ap 18 Manu Tuiasosopo Seahawks DT UCLA 19 George Andrews Rams LB Nebraska 20 Willis Adams Browns WR Houston ======================================= 1980 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Billy Sims Lions RB Oklahoma - 2 pb - 2 ap 2 Lam Jones Jets WR Texas >> 3 Anthony Munoz Bengals T USC - 10 pb - 11 ap 4 Bruce Clark Packers DT Penn State - 1 pb 5 Curtis Dickey Colts RB Texas A&M 6 Curtis Greer Cardinals DE Michigan - 1 ap >> 7 Junior Miller Falcons TE Nebraska - 2 pb >> 8 Mark Haynes Giants DB Colorado - 3pb - 5 ap 9 Doug Martin Vikings DT Washington >> 10 Jacob Green Seahawks DE Texas A&M- 2ap - 4 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Brad Budde Chiefs G USC 12 Stan Brock Saints T Colorado 13 Earl Cooper 49ers RB Rice 14 Roland James Patriots DB Tennessee - 1 ap 15 Marc Wilson Raiders QB Brigham Young >> 16 Jim Ritcher Bills C North Carolina State - 2 pb - 2 ap 17 Johnnie Johnson Rams DB Texas - 1 ap >> 18 Art Monk Redskins WR Syracuse - 3 pb - 3 ap >> 19 Otis Wilson Bears LB Louisville - 1 pb - 2 ap 20 Jim Stuckey 49ers DT Clemson ===================================================== 1981 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 5 >> 1 George Rogers Saints RB South Carolina - 2 pb - 2 ap >> 2 Lawrence Taylor Giants LB North Carolina - 10 pb - 8 ap >> 3 Freeman McNeil Jets RB UCLA - 3 pb - 3 ap >> 4 Kenny Easley Seahawks DB UCLA - 5 pb - 5 ap >> 5 E.J. Junior Cardinals LB Alabama - 2 pb - 2 ap 6 Rich Campbell Packers QB California >> 7 Hugh Green Buccaneers LB Pittsburgh - 2 pb - 2 ap >> 8 Ronnie Lott 49ers DB USC - 10 pb - 6 ap 9 Mel Owens Rams LB Michigan 10 David Verser Bengals WR Kansas ----------------------------------------------------- 11 Keith Van Horne Bears T USC 12 Randy McMillan Colts RB Pittsburgh 13 David Overstreet Dolphins RB Oklahoma 14 Willie Scott Chiefs TE South Carolina >> 15 Dennis Smith Broncos DB USC - 6 pb 16 Mark Nichols Lions WR San Jose State 17 Keith Gary Steelers DE Oklahoma 18 Donnell Thompson Colts DT North Carolina >> 19 Brian Holloway Patriots T Stanford - 3 pb - 3 ap 20 Mark May Redskins T Pittsburgh - 1 ap ============================================ 1982 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 2 1 Kenneth Sims Patriots DT Texas 2 Johnie Cooks Colts LB Mississippi State >> 3 Chip Banks Browns LB USC - 4 pb - 4 ap 4 Art Schlichter Colts QB Ohio State >> 5 Jim McMahon Bears QB Brigham Young - 1 pb - 1 ap 6 Jeff Bryant Seahawks DE Clemson - 1 ap 7 Darrin Nelson Vikings RB Stanford >> 8 Mike Munchak Oilers G Penn State - 9 pb - 2 ap >> 9 Gerald Riggs Falcons RB Arizona State - 3 pb - 2 ap >> 10 Marcus Allen Raiders RB USC - 5 pb - 2 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Anthony Hancock Chiefs WR Tennessee 12 Walter Abercrombie Steelers RB Baylor 13 Lindsay Scott Saints WR Georgia 14 Barry Redden Rams RB Richmond 15 Jimmy Williams Lions LB Nebraska >> 16 Luis Sharpe Cardinals T UCLA - 3 pb - 4 ap 17 Sean Farrell Buccaneers G Penn State - 1 ap 18 Butch Woolfork Giants RB Michigan 19 Perry Tuttle Bills WR Clemson >> 20 Mike Quick Eagles WR North Carolina State - 5 pb - 4 ap ==================================== 1983 - 8 - 2 - top 5 = 5 >> 1 John Elway Colts QB Stanford - 9 pb >> 2 Eric Dickerson Rams RB SMU - 5 pb - 4 ap >> 3 Curt Warner Seahawks RB Penn State - 3 pb - 4 ap >> 4 Chris Hinton Broncos T Northwestern - 7 pb - 1 ap >> 5 Billy Ray Smith Chargers LB Arkansas - 3 ap >> 6 Jimbo Covert Bears T Pittsburgh - 2 pb - 2 ap 7 Todd Blackledge Chiefs QB Penn State 8 Michael Haddix Eagles RB Mississippi State >> 9 Bruce Matthews Oilers G USC - 14 pb - 7 ap >> 10 Terry Kinard Giants DB Clemson - 1 pb - 1 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Tim Lewis Packers DB Pittsburgh - 1 ap 12 Tony Hunter Bills TE Notre Dame 13 James Jones Lions RB Florida - >> 14 Jim Kelly Bills QB Miami (FL) 5 pb - 1 ap 15 Tony Eason Patriots QB Illinois 16 Mike Pitts Falcons DE Alabama 17 Leonard Smith Cardinals DB McNeese State 1 ap 18 Willie Gualt Bears WR Tennessee >> 19 Joey Browner Vikings DB USC - 6 pb - 5 ap 20 Gary Anderson Chargers RB Arkansas - 1 pb ================================ 1984 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 3 >> 1 Irving Fryar Patriots WR Nebraska - 5 pb - 1 ap 2 Dean Steinkuhler Oilers T Nebraska >> 3 Carl Banks Giants LB Michigan State - 1 pb - 1 ap 4 Kenny Jackson Eagles WR Penn State >> 5 Bill Maas Chiefs DT Pittsburgh - 2 ap 6 Mossy Cade Chargers DB Texas 7 Ricky Hunley Bengals LB Arizona 8 Leonard Coleman Colts DB Vanderbilt 9 Rick Bryan Falcons DT Oklahoma - 1 ap 10 Russell Carter Jets DB SMU -------------------------------------- >> 11 Wilber Marshall Bears LB Florida - 3 pb - 2 ap 12 Alphonso Carreker Packers DE Florida State >> 13 Keith Millard Vikings DE Washington State - 2 pb - 4 ap 14 Jackie Shipp Dolphins LB Oklahoma 15 Ron Faurot Jets DE Arkansas 16 Pete Koch Bengals DE Maryland 17 Clyde Duncan Cardinals WR Tennessee 18 Don Rogers Browns DB UCLA >> 19 Ron Solt Colts G Maryland - 1 pb - 1 ap 20 David Lewis Lions TE California ========================================== 1985 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 5 >> 1 Bruce Smith Bills DE Virginia Tech 11 pb - 8 ap >> 2 Bill Fralic Falcons T Pittsburgh - 4 pb - 3 ap >> 3 Ray Childress Oilers DE Texas A&M - 5 pb - 6 ap >> 4 Chris Doleman Vikings DE Pittsburgh - 8 pb - 4 ap >> 5 Duane Bickett Colts LB USC - 1 pb - 2 ap >> 6 Lomas Brown Lions T Florida - 7 pb - 6 ap 7 Ken Ruettgers Packers T USC 8 Ron Holmes Buccaneers DE Washington 9 Kevin Allen Eagles T Indiana >> 10 Al Toon Jets WR Wisconsin - 3 pb - 3 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Richard Johnson Oilers DB Wisconsin >> 12 Jim Lachey Chargers T Ohio State - 3 pb - 5 ap 13 Eddie Brown Bengals WR Miami (FL) - 1 ap 14 Derrick Burroughs Bills DB Memphis State 15 Ethan Horton Chiefs RB North Carolina >> 16 Jerry Rice 49ers WR Mississippi Valley State - 13 pb - 10 ap 17 Kevin Brooks Cowboys DE Michigan 18 Freddie Joe Nunn Cardinals DE Mississippi 19 George Adams Giants RB Kentucky 20 Darryl Sims Steelers DE Wisconsin ======================================= 1986 - 4 - 1 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Bo Jackson Buccaneers RB Auburn - 1 pb - 2 ap 2 Tony Casillas Falcons DT Oklahoma - 1 ap >> 3 Jim Everett Oilers QB Purdue - 1 pb - 2 ap 4 Jon Hand Colts DE Alabama 5 Anthony Bell Cardinals LB Michigan State 6 Jim Dombrowski Saints T Virginia 7 Brian Jozwiak Chiefs T West Virginia >> 8 Leslie O'Neal Chargers DE Oklahoma State - 6 pb 9 John Rienstra Steelers G Temple >> 10 Keith Byars Eagles RB Ohio State - 1 pb - 1 ap ------------------------------------ 11 Joe Kelly Bengals LB Washington 12 Chuck Long Lions QB Iowa 13 James Fitzpatrick Chargers T USC 14 Gerald Robinson Vikings DE Auburn 15 John L. Williams Seahawks RB Florida 16 Ronnie Harmon Bills RB Iowa - 1 pb 17 Tim Green Falcons LB Syracuse 18 Mike Sherrard Cowboys WR UCLA 19 Eric Dorsey Giants DE Notre Dame >> 20 Will Wolford Bills T Vanderbilt - 3 pb - 2 ap ================================= 1987 - 5 - 1 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers QB Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 1 ap >> 2 Cornelius Bennett Colts LB Alabama - 5 pb - 1 ap 3 Alonzo Highsmith Oilers RB Miami (FL) 4 Brent Fullwood Packers RB Auburn - 1 pb 5 Mike Junkin Browns LB Duke 6 Kelly Stouffer Cardinals QB Colorado State 7 Reggie Rogers Lions DE Washington >> 8 Shane Conlan Bills LB Penn State - 3 pb - 3 ap >> 9 Jerome Brown Eagles DT Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 3 ap >> 10 Rod Woodson Steelers DB Purdue 11 pb - 6 ap ------------------------------------------------------ 11 Shawn Knight Saints DT Brigham Young 12 Danny Noonan Cowboys DT Nebraska 13 Chris Miller Falcons QB Oregon - 1 pb 14 D.J. Dozier Vikings RB Penn State 15 John Clay Raiders T Missouri 16 John Bosa Dolphins DE Boston College 17 Jason Buck Bengals DE Brigham Young 18 Tony Woods Seahawks LB Pittsburgh 19 Paul Palmer Chiefs RB Temple >> 20 Haywood Jeffires Oilers WR North Carolina State - 3 pb - 2 ap ========================================= 1988 - 6 - 7 - top 5 = 3 1 Aundray Bruce Falcons LB Auburn - >> 2 Neil Smith Chiefs DE Nebraska - 6 pb - 6 ap >> 3 Bennie Blades Lions DB Miami (FL) - 1 pb - 3 ap >> 4 Paul Gruber Buccaneers T Wisconsin - 3 ap 5 Rickey Dixon Bengals DB Oklahoma >> 6 Tim Brown Raiders WR Notre Dame - 7 + - ap + >> 7 Sterling Sharpe Packers WR South Carolina - 5 pb - 5 ap 8 Dave Cadigan Jets T USC - >> 9 Terry McDaniel Raiders DB Tennessee - 5 pb - 2 ap 10 Eric Moore Giants T Indiana ------------------------------------- >> 11 Michael Irvin Cowboys WR Miami (FL) - + pb - + ap >> 12 Ken Harvey Cardinals LB California - + pb - + ap >> 13 Keith Jackson Eagles TE Oklahoma - 5 pb - 4 ap >> 14 Gaston Green Rams RB UCLA - 1 pb - 1 ap >> 15 Anthony Miller Chargers WR Tennessee - 5 pb - 3 ap 16 Eric Kumerow Dolphins DE Ohio State >> 17 John Stephens Patriots RB NW Louisiana - 1 pb - 1 ap 18 Aaron Jones Steelers DE Eastern Kentucky - >> 19 Randall McDaniel Vikings G Arizona State - 12 pb - 7 ap 20 Aaron Cox Rams WR Arizona State ================================================= 1989 - 4 -1 - top 5 = 4 >> 1 Troy Aikman Cowboys QB UCLA - 6 pb 2 Tony Mandarich Packers T Michigan State >> 3 Barry Sanders Lions RB Oklahoma State - 10 pb - 5 ap >> 4 Derrick Thomas Chiefs LB Alabama - 9 pb - 2 ap >> 5 Deion Snaders Falcons DB Florida State 8 pb - 6 ap 6 Broderick Thomas Buccaneers LB Nebraska 7 Tim Worley Steelers RB Georgia 8 Burt Grossman Chargers DE Pittsburgh 9 Sammie Smith Dolphins RB Florida State 10 Eric Hill Cardinals LB LSU --------------------------------------------- 11 Donnell Woolford Bears DB Clemson - 1 pb 12 Trace Armstrong Bears DE Florida 1 pb 13 Eric Metcalf Browns RB Texas 14 Jeff Lageman Jets LB Virginia - 1 ap 15 Andy Heck Seahawks T Notre Dame - 1 ap 16 Hart Lee Dykes Patriots WR Oklahoma State 17 Joe Wolf Cardinals G Boston College 18 Brian Williams Giants C Minnesota 19 Wayne Martin Saints DE Arkansas - 1 pb >> 20 Steve Atwater Broncos DB Arkansas - 8 pb - + ap ========================================= 1990 - 4 - 3 - top 5 = 2 1 Jeff George Colts QB Illinois 2 Blair Thomas Jets RB Penn State >> 3 Cortez Kennedy Seahawks DT Miami (FL) - 7 pb - 6 ap 4 Keith McCants Buccaneers LB Alabama >> 5 Junior Seau Chargers LB USC - 12 pb - 6 ap >> 6 Mark Carrier Bears DB USC - 3 pb - 3 ap 7 Andre Ware Lions QB Houston 8 Chris Singleton Patriots LB Arizona >> 9 Richmond Webb Dolphins T Texas A&M - 7 pb - 3 ap 10 Ray Agnew Patriots DE North Carolina State - -------------------------------------------- 11 Anthony Smith Raiders DE Arizona 12 James Francis Bengals LB Baylor 13 Percy Snow Chiefs LB Michigan State >> 14 Renaldo Turnbull Saints DE West Virginia - 1 pb - 1 ap >> 15 Lamar Lathon Oilers LB Houston - 1 pb - 1 ap 16 James Williams Bills DB Fresno State >> 17 Emmitt Smith Cowboys RB Florida 8 pb - 4 ap 18 Tony Bennett Packers LB Mississippi 19 Darrell Thompson Packers RB Minnesota 20 Steve Broussard Falcons RB Washington State ============================================== 1991 - 3 - 0 - top 5 = 1 1 Russell Maryland Cowboys DT Miami (FL) - 1 pb >> 2 Eric Turner Browns DB UCLA - 2 pb - 1 ap 3 Bruce Pickens Falcons DB Nebraska 4 Mike Croel Broncos LB Nebraska 5 Todd Lyght Rams DB Notre Dame - 1 pb >> 6 Eric Swann Cardinals DE None - 2 pb - 2 ap 7 Charles McRae Buccaneers T Tennessee 8 Antone Davis Eagles T Tennessee 9 Stanley Richard Chargers DB Texas >> 10 Herman Moore Lions WR Virginia - 4 pb - 3 ap --------------------------------------- 11 Pat Harlow Patriots T USC 12 Alvin Harper Cowboys WR Tennessee 13 Mike Pritchard Falcons WR Colorado 14 Leonard Russell Patriots RB Arizona State 15 Huey Richardson Steelers LB Florida 16 Dan McGwire Seahawks QB San Diego State 17 Bobby Wilson Redskins DT Michigan State 18 Alfred Williams Bengals LB Colorado 19 Vinnie Clark Packers DB Ohio State 20 Kelvin Pritchett Cowboys DT Mississippi ================================================ 1992 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 1 1 Steve Emtman Colts DT Washington 2 Quentin Coryatt Colts LB Texas A&M >> 3 Sean Gilbert Rams DT Pittsburgh - 1 pb - 1 ap 4 Desmond Howard Redskins WR Michigan 5 Terrell Buckley Packers DB Florida State - 1 ap 6 David Klingler Bengals QB Houston >> 7 Troy Vincent Dolphins DB Wisconsin - 5 pb - 1 ap >> 8 Bob Whitfield Falcons T Stanford - 1 pb - 1 ap 9 Tommy Vardell Browns RB Stanford 10 Ray Roberts Seahawks T Virginia ------------------------------------------ 11 Leon Searcy Steelers T Miami (FL) - 1 pb >> 12 Marco Coleman Dolphins DE Georgia Tech - 2 pb 13 Eugene Chung Patriots T Virginia Tech 14 Derek Brown Giants TE Notre Dame 15 Johnny Mitchell Jets TE Nebraska >> 16 Chester McGlockton Raiders DT Clemson - 4 pb - + ap 17 Kevin Smith Cowboys DB Texas A&M - 1 ap 18 Dana Hall 49ers DB Washington - 19 Troy Smith Falcons RB Southern Mississippi >> 20 Dale Carter Chiefs DB Tennessee - 4 pb - 4 ap ========================================== 1993 - 5 - 1 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots QB Washington State - 4 pb 2 Rick Mirer Seahawks QB Notre Dame >> 3 Garrison Hearst Cardinals RB Georgia 2 pb 4 Marvin Jones Jets LB Florida State 5 John Copeland Bengals DE Alabama 6 Eric Curry Buccaneers DE Alabama 7 Curtis Conway Bears WR USC >> 8 William Roaf Saints T Louisiana Tech - 11 pb - 3 ap >>9 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons T Washington - 3 pb - 1 ap >> 10 Jerome Bettis Rams RB Notre Dame - 6 pb - 2 ap ------------------------------------- 11 Dan Williams Broncos DE Toledo 12 Patrick Bates Raiders DB Texas A&M >>13 Brad Hopkins Oilers T Illinois - 2 pb 14 Steve Everitt Browns C Michigan 15 Wayne Simmons Packers LB Clemson 16 Sean Dawkins Colts WR California 17 Tom Carter Redskins DB Notre Dame 18 Ernest Dye Cardinals T South Carolina 19 Lester Holmes Eagles G Jackson State 20 Irv Smith Saints TE Notre Dame ==================================== 1994 - 5 - 4 - top 5 = 2 1 Dan Wilkinson Bengals DT Ohio State >> 2 Marshall Faulk Colts RB San Diego State 7 pb - 3 ap 3 Heath Shuler Redskins QB Tennessee >>4 Willie McGinest Patriots DE USC - 2 pb 5 Trev Alberts Colts LB Nebraska 6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers QB Fresno State - 1 pb >> 7 Bryant Young 49ers DT Notre Dame - 4 pb - 1 ap >> 8 Sam Adams Seahawks DT Texas A&M - 3 pb 9 Antonio Langham Browns DB Alabama >> 10 Jamir Miller Cardinals LB UCLA - 1 pb - 1 ap --------------------------------- 11 John Thierry Bears DE Alcorn State >> 12 Aaron Glenn Jets DB Texas A&M - 3 pb >> 13 Joe Johnson Saints DE Louisville 2 pb 14 Bernard Williams Eagles T Georgia 15 Wayne Gandy Rams T Auburn 16 Aaron Taylor Packers T Notre Dame 17 Charles Johnson Steelers WR Colorado 18 DeWayne Washington Vikings DB North Carolina State >> 19 Todd Steussie Vikings T California - 2 pb >> 20 Tim Bowens Dolphins DT Mississippi 2 pb ========================================= 1995 - 4 - 5 - top 5 = 3 1 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals RB Penn State >> 2 Tony Boselli Jaguars T USC - 5 pb - 3 ap >>3 Steve McNair Oilers QB Alcorn State - 3 pb 4 Michael Westbrook Redskins WR Colorado >>5 Kerry Collins Panthers QB Penn State - 2 pb >> 6 Kevin Carter Rams DE Florida - 2 pb - 1ap 7 Mike Mamula Eagles DE Boston College 8 Joey Galloway Seahawks WR Ohio State 9 Kyle Brady Jets TE Penn State 10 J.J. Stokes 49ers WR UCLA -------------------------------------------- 11 Derrick Alexander Vikings DE Florida State >> 12 Warren Sapp Buccaneers DT Miami (FL) - 7 pb - 4 ap >>13 Mark Fields Saints LB Washington State - 2 pb >> 14 Reuben Brown Bills G Pittsburgh - 9 pb 15 Ellis Johnson Colts DT Florida >> 16 Hugh Douglas Jets DE Central State (OH) - 3 pb - 1 ap 17 Tyrone Wheatley Giants RB Michigan 18 Napoleon Kaufman Raiders RB Washington 19 James Stewart Jaguars RB Tennessee >> 20 Luther Elliss Lions DE Utah - 2 pb ========================================== 1996 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 4 >> 1 Keyshawn Johnson Jets WR USC - 3 pb >> 2 Kevin Hardy Jaguars LB Illinois - 1 pb - 1 ap >> 3 Simeon Rice Cardinals DE Illinois - 3 pb 1 ap >> 4 Jonathan Ogden Ravens T UCLA - 11 pb - 4 ap 5 Cedric Jones Giants DE Oklahoma 6 Lawrence Phillips Rams RB Nebraska 7 Terry Glenn Patriots WR Ohio State - 1 pb 8 Tim Biakabutuka Panthers RB Michigan 9 Rickey Dudley Raiders TE Ohio State >>10 Willie Anderson Bengals T Auburn - 4 pb - 3 ap ----------------------------------------- 11 Alex Molden Saints DB Oregon 12 Regan Upshaw Buccaneers DE California 13 Walt Harris Bears DB Mississippi State >> 14 Eddie George Oilers RB Ohio State - 4 pb - 1 ap 15 John Mobley Broncos LB Kutztown (PA) - 1 ap 16 Duane Clemons Vikings DE California 17 Reggie Brown Lions LB Texas A&M 18 Eddie Kennison Rams WR LSU >> 19 Marvin Harrison Colts WR Syracuse - 8 pb - 3 ap 20 Daryl Gardener Dolphins DT Baylor ============================================== 1997 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 3 >> 1 Orlando Pace Rams T Ohio State - 7 pb - 3 ap >> 2 Darrell Russell Raiders DT USC - 2 pb - 1 ap 3 Shawn Springs Seahawks DB Ohio State - 1 pb >> 4 Peter Boulware Ravens DE Florida State - 4 pb 5 Bryant Westbrook Lions DB Texas >> 6 Walter Jones Seahawks T Florida State - 8 pb - 4 ap 7 Ike Hilliard Giants WR Florida >>8 James Farrior Jets LB Virginia - 2 pb - 1 ap 9 TOM Knight Cards CB Iowa 10 Chris Naeole Saints G Colorado ------------------------------------------ 11 Michael Booker Falcons DB Nebraska >> 12 Warrick Dunn Buccaneers RB Florida State - 3 pb >> 13 Tony Gonzalez Chiefs TE California - 12 pb 5 ap 14 Reinard Wilson Bengals DE Florida State 15 Yatil Green Dolphins WR Miami (FL) 16 Reidel Anthony Buccaneers WR Florida 17 Kenard Lang Redskins DE Miami (FL) 18 Kenny Holmes Oilers DE Miami (FL) >>19 Tarik Glenn Colts T California - 3 pb 20 Dwayne Rudd Vikings LB Alabama ==================================== 1998 - 2 - 3 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee - 11 pb - 5 ap 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State 3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State >> 4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan - 8 pb - 3 ap 5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State 6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska 7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State - 1 ap 8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina 9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida 10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL) -------------------------------------- >> 11 Tra Thomas Eagles T Florida State - 3 pb >> 12 Keith Brooking Falcons LB Georgia Tech - 5 pb >>13 Takeo Spikes Bengals LB Auburn - 2 pb - 1 ap 14 Jason Peter Panthers DT Nebraska 15 Anthony Simmons Seahawks LB Clemson 16 Kevin Dyson Oilers WR Utah 17 Brian Simmons Bengals LB North Carolina 18 Robert Edwards Patriots RB Georgia 19 Vonnie Holliday Packers DT North Carolina 20 Terry Fair Lions DB Tennessee ====================================== 1999 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 3 1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky >>2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse 6 pb 3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon >>4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL) - 4 pr - 1 ap >>5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas - 1 pb - 1 ap >>6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State - 7 pb - 1 ap >>7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia - 11 pb - 3 ap >>8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State - 1 pb - 1 ap 9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC >>10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona - 3 pb - 1 ap ------------------------------------------ >>11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings QB Central Florida 3 pb 12 Cade McNown Bears QB UCLA 13 Troy Edwards Steelers WR Louisiana Tech 14 John Tait Chiefs T Brigham Young 15 Anthony McFarland Buccaneers DT LSU >>16 Jevon Kearse Oilers LB Florida - 3 pb - 1 ap 17 Damien Woody Patriots C Boston College 18 Matt Stinchcomb Raiders T Georgia 19 Luke Petitgout Giants T Notre Dame 20 Ebenezer Ekuban Cowboys DE North Carolina ========================================= 2000 - 4 - 6 - top 5 = 3 1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State >>2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State - 3 pb >>3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama - 6 pb 4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State >>5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee - 1 pb - 1 ap 6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State 7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia 8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State >>9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico - 8 pb - 4 ap 10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida --------------------------------------- 11 Ron Dayne Giants RB Wisconsin >>12 Shaun Ellis Jets DE Tennessee - 2 pb >>13 John Abraham Jets LB South Carolina - 4 pb - 2 ap >>14 Bubba Franks Packers TE Miami (FL) - 3 pb >>15 Deltha O'Neal Broncos DB California - 2 pb - 1 ap >>16 Julian Peterson 49ers LB Michigan State - 5 pb - 1 ap 17 Sebastian Janikowski Raiders K Florida State 18 Chad Pennington Jets QB Marshall >>19 Shaun Alexander Seahawks RB Alabama - 3 pb - 1 ap 20 Stockar McDougle Lions T Oklahoma ====================================== 2001 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 4 >>1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech - 4 pb >>2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas - 3 pb 3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida >>4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri - 3 pb - 1 ap >>5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian - 5 pb - 3 ap >>6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia - 7 pb - 3 ap 7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California 8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan 9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State 10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State ---------------------------------------------- 11 Dan Morgan Panthers LB Miami (FL) 12 Damione Lewis Rams DT Miami (FL) >>13 Marcus Stroud Jaguars DT Georgia - 3 pb 14 Kenyatta Walker Buccaneers T Florida 15 Rod Gardner Redskins WR Clemson 16 Santana Moss Jets WR Miami (FL) >>17 Steve Hutchinson Seahawks G Michigan - 7 pb - 5 ap 18 Jeff Backus Lions T Michigan >>19 Casey Hampton Steelers DT Texas - 5 pb 20 Adam Archuleta Rams DB Arizona State ========================================== 2002 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 1 1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State >>2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina - 6 pb - 3 ap 3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon 4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas 5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas 6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina 7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL) >>8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma - 5 pb - 1 ap >>9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee - 2 pb 10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State ------------------------------------- >>11 Dwight Freeney Colts LB Syracuse - 7 pb - 3 ap 12 Wendell Bryant Cardinals DT Wisconsin 13 Donte Stallworth Saints WR Tennessee >>14 Jeremy Shockey Giants TE Miami (FL) 4 pb - 1 ap >>15 Albert Haynesworth Titans DT Tennessee - 2 pb - 2 ap 16 William Green Browns RB Boston College 17 Phillip Buchanon Raiders DB Miami (FL) 18 T.J. Duckett Falcons RB Michigan State 19 Ashley Lelie Broncos WR Hawaii 20 Javon Walker Packers WR Florida State ============================================ 2003 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 3 >>1 Carson Palmer Bengles QB USC - 2 pb 2 Charles Rogers Detroit WR Michigan State >>3 Andre Johnson Houston WR Miami (Fla.) - 5 pb - 2 ap 4 Dewayne Robertson NYJ DT Kentucky >>5 Terence Newman Dallas CB Kansas State - 2 pb 6 Johnathan Sullivan Saints DT Georgia 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars QB Marshall >>8 Jordan Gross Panthers OT Utah - 2 pb - 1 pb >>9 Kevin Williams Vikings DT Oklahoma State - 6 pb - 5 ap >>10 Terrell Suggs Ravens DE Arizona State - 5 pb - 1 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Marcus Trufant Seahawks CB Washington State 12 Jimmy Kennedy Rams DT Penn State 13 Ty Warren Patriots DT Texas A&M 14 Michale Haynes Bears DE Penn State 15 Jerome McDougle Eagles DE Miami (Fla.) >>16 Troy Polamalu Steelers SS Southern California - 7 pb - 4 ap 17 Bryant Johnson Cards WR Penn State 18 Calvin Pace Cards DE Wake Forest 19 Kyle Boller Ravens QB California 20 George Foster Broncos OT Georgia ==================================================== 2004 - 5 - 4 - top 5 = 4 >>1 Eli Manning Chargers QB Mississippi - 2 pb 2 Robert Gallery Raiders OT Iowa >>3 Larry Fitzgerald Cards WR Pittsburgh - 6 pb - 1 ap >>4 Philip Rivers Giants/Chargers QB North Carolina State - 4 pb >>5 Sean Taylor Redskins DB Miami (FL) - 2 pb 6 Kellen Winslow II Browns (from Detroit) TE Miami (FL) 7 Roy Williams Lions (from Cleveland) WR Texas >>8 DeAngelo Hall Falcons DB Virginia Tech - 3 pb 9 Reggie Williams Jaguars WR Washington 10 Dunta Robinson Texans DB South Carolina -------------------------------------------------- >>11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers QB Miami (OH) - 2 pb >>12 Jonathan Vilma NYJ LB Miami (FL) - 2 pb 13 Lee Evans Bills WR Wisconsin >>14 Tommie Harris Bears DT Oklahoma - 3 pb 15 Michael Clayton Bucs WR LSU >>16 Shawn Andrews Eagles (from San Francisco) OT Arkansas = 2 pb - 1 ap 17 D.J. Williams Broncos (from Cincinnati) LB Miami (FL) 18 Will Smith Saints DE Ohio State 19 Vernon Carey Miami (from Minnesota) OT Miami (FL) 20 Kenechi Udeze Vikings (from Miami) DE USC ================================================ 2005 - 1 - 4 - top 5 = 0 1 Alex Smith Niners QB Utah 2 Ronnie Brown Miami RB Auburn 3 Braylon Edwards Browns WR Michigan 4 Cedric Benson Bears RB Texas 5 Cadillac Williams Bucs RB Auburn 6 Pacman Jones Titans CB West Virginia 7 Troy Williamson Vikings WR South Carolina >>8 Antrel Rolle Cards DB Miami (Fla.) - 2 pb 9 Carlos Rogers Skins DB Auburn 10 Mike Williams Lions WR USC ----------------------------------------------- >>11 DeMarcus Ware Cowboys OLB Troy State - 6 pb - 4 ap >>12 Shawne Merriman Chargers OLB Maryland - 3 pb - 1 ap >>13 Jammal Brown Saints T Oklahoma - 2 pb - 1 ap 14 Thomas Davis Panthers DB Georgia >>15 Derrick Johnson Chiefs OLB Texas - 1 pb - 1 ap 16 Travis Johnson Texans DT Florida State 17 David Pollack Bengals LB Georgia 18 Erasmus James Vikings DE Wisconsin 19 Alex Barron Rams T Florida State 20 Marcus Spears Cowboys DE Louisiana State ==================================================== 2006 - 3 - 2 - top 5 = 3 >>1 Mario Williams Texans DE North Carolina State - 2 pb 2 Reggie Bush Saints RB USC >>3 Vince Young Titans QB Texas - 2 pb >>4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Jets T Virginia - 3 pb 5 A.J. Hawk Packers OLB Ohio State 6 Vernon Davis Niners TE Maryland 7 Michael Huff Raiders SS Texas 8 Donte Whitner Bills SS Ohio State 9 Ernie Sims Lions OLB Florida State 10 Matt Leinart Cards QB USC ----------------------------------------------------- 11 Jay Cutler Broncos QB Vanderbilt >>12 Haloti Ngata Ravems DT Oregon - 3 pb - 2 ap 13 Kamerion Wimbley Browns OLB Florida State 14 Brodrick Bunkley Eagles DT Florida State 15 Tye Hill Rams CB Clemson 16 Jason Allen Miami DB Tennessee 17 Chad Greenway Vikings LB Iowa 18 Bobby Carpenter Cowboys LB Ohio State >>19 Antonio Cromartie Chargers CB Florida State - 1 pb - 1 ap 20 Tamba Hali Chiefs DE Penn State ==================================================== 2007 - 3 - 2 - top 5 = 2 1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders QB Louisiana State >>2 Calvin Johnson Lions WR Georgia Tech - 2 pb - 1 ap >>3 Joe Thomas Browns OT Wisconsin - 5 pb - 3 ap 4 Gaines Adams Bucs DE Clemson 5 Levi Brown Cards OT Penn State 6 LaRon Landry Skins SS Louisiana State >>7 Adrian Peterson Vikings RB Oklahoma - 4 pb - 2 ap 8 Jamaal Anderson Falcons DE Arkansas 9 Ted Ginn Jr. Miami WR Ohio State 10 Amobi Okoye Texans DT Louisville --------------------------------------------------- >>11 Patrick Willis Niners ILB Mississippi - 5 pb - 4 ap 12 Marshawn Lynch Bills RB California 13 Adam Carriker Rams NT Nebraska >>14 Darrelle Revis Jets CB Pittsburgh - 4 pb - 3 ap 15 Lawrence Timmons Steelers LB Florida State 16 Justin Harrell Packers DT Tennessee 17 Jarvis Moss Broncos DE Florida 18 Leon Hall Bengals CB Michigan 19 Michael Griffin Titans FS Texas 20 Aaron Ross Giants CB Texas ==================================================== ==================================================== i dont think anyone (or at least myself) is trying to imply that if you pick in the top 5 or 10 that you are guaranteed a high impact player with that pick. the lists i posted clearly show that. but... i think what it does show is that you have a much better chance at achieving the goal of every organization by picking in these slots than in lower ones. to aquire a franchise player it can't just be determined by money vs. reward risk when you draft. otherwise why even draft at all in the first round? you will end up like the redskins under the former bear dc george allen and even without the the salary cap at that time it just didn't work. drafting high... will you miss sometimes? absolutely! but the old saying if you DON'T try you will NEVER succeed. if teams that draft consistanly in the top 5 spots can afford it every year why can't the bear organization in the few times over decades afford it? i think the fact that this franchise has had TWO quality qb's (one was a free agent) in 40 years speaks volumes of the risk reward consequences. these are some interesting draft stats. below are chicago bear hall of fame players and where they were drafted: HOF 1st round top 10 picks 1. Clyde Bulldog Turner 7th pick 1st round 2. Joe Stydahar 6th pick 1st round 3. Gayle Sayers 4th pick 1st round 4. Walther Payton 4th pick 1st round 5. Dan Hampton 4th pick 1st round 6. George McAfee 2nd pick 1st round (drafted by eagles and immediately traded to bears) 7. Sid Luckman 2nd pick 1st round 8. Mike Ditka 5th pick 1st round 9. George Connor 5th pick 1st round (drafted by ny giants) 10. Dick Butkus 3rd pick 1st round 11. Dan Hampton 4th pick 1st round HOF 1st round picks 11 - + 1. Doug Atkins 11th pick 1st round HOF later rounds 1. Mike Singletary 38th pick 2nd round 3. Bill George 2nd round 2. Stan Jones 5th round 6. Richard Dent 8th round 4. Danny Fortmann 9th round pick 5. George Blanda 12th round HOF not listed as draft picks. prior to 1936 1. Bronco Nagurski 2. George Musso 3. Roy Lyman 4. Bill Hewitt 5. Ed Healey 6. George Halas 7. John Driscol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted April 22, 2012 Report Share Posted April 22, 2012 Great work! Thanks for sharing! below are some statistics i compiled for the old board about 8 years ago and i have updated the information to date, pre-draft 2012. it lists all players drafted in slots 1-20 in the first round and how they compare to obtaining a quality player drafting in these slots. feel free if you wish to copy this information for your own records but please acknowledge where you got them from as it was an incredible amount of work putting this together. thanks, Lucky Luciano my conclusions after looking at the statistics below i know i am not so sure i wouldn't consider trading up EVERY year into the top 10 if you want the odds on your side with selecting a quality player. below are some interesting facts: 1) over a 29 year period there were 580 picks in slots 1-20 2) 134 were quality picks in slots 1-10 or 23% of the players picked 3) 77 were quality picks in slots 11-20 or 13% of the players picked 4) that makes it a 10% better chance to land a better player in slots 1-10 than 11-20 in the first round. the data below reads as follows: YEAR - NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM PICKS 1-10 - NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM PICKS 11-20 1979 - 6 - 1 1980 - 5 - 3 1981 - 7 - 2 1982 - 5 - 2 1983 - 8 - 2 1984 - 3 - 3 * 1985 - 7 - 2 1986 - 4 - 1 1987 - 5 - 1 1988 - 6 - 7 ** 1989 - 4 - 1 1990 - 4 - 3 1991 - 3 - 0 1992 - 3 - 3 * 1993 - 5 - 1 1994 - 5 - 4 1995 - 4 - 5 ** 1996 - 5 - 2 1997 - 5 - 3 1998 - 2 - 3 ** 1999 - 7 - 2 2000 - 4 - 6 ** 2001 - 5 - 3 2002 - 3 - 3 * 2003 - 7 - 2 2004 - 5 - 4 2005 - 1 - 4 ** 2006 - 3 - 2 2007 - 3 - 2 TOTAL 134 - 77 21 out of 29 times there were MORE quality players selected 1-10 than in slots 11-20. *3 times they were even **only 5 times in 29 years were there more pro bowl/all-pro players picked in slots 11-20. i used data for 29 years from 1979 to 2007 inclusive. i did not go further than 2007 as the time frame would be not be long enough to determine any significant figures. over time some of these figures will change and have to be adjusted. i also am using figures from picks 1-20 in the first round only to determine the value of drafting in the top 10 as compared to picking in the next 10 slots. although i haven't tallied up the differences in slots 21-32 i believe the numbers would be considerably lower. anyone who feels like doing the work is welcome to dispute that statement. i went through an incredible amount of data to get these stats. all data was figured from players who had at LEAST two forms of award. EXAMPLE.. a player that had 1 pro bowl and 1 all-pro made the list, a player that was selected for 2 pro-bowls made the list, a player who was selected as all-pro (or all-nfl) twice made the list, and multiples of the above. im no math expert by any means and if anyone see's any errors post them and/or i will post the players along with data. any who want can do the math on their own as it is possible i missed someone or added one by mistake. if you find any that dont jive let me know. =========== listed below are the players that i used for the stats above from 1979 - 2007. how long did this take to compile this data you ask? days! ap = ALL-PRO pb = PRO BOWL >> 1979 - 6 - 1 - top 5 = 3 >> 1 Tom Cousineau Bills LB Ohio State - 2 ap >> 2 Mike Bell Chiefs DE Colorado State 3 Jack Thompson Bengals QB Washington State >> 4 Dan Hampton Bears DT Arkansas - 4 pb - 1 ap >> 5 Jerry Butler Bills WR Clemson - 1 pb - 1 ap 6 Barry Krauss Colts LB Alabama >> 7 Phil Simms Giants QB Morehead State - 2 pb - 1 ap >> 8 Ottis Anderson Cardinals RB Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 2 ap 9 Al Harris Bears DE Arizona State >> 10 Keith Dorney Lions T Penn State - 1 pb - 2 ap -------------------------------------------------- 11 Russell Erxleben Saints K Texas 12 Charles Alexander Bengals RB LSU >> 13 Kellen Winslow Chargers TE Missouri - 5 pb - 3 ap 14 Marty Lyons Jets DE Alabama 15 Eddie Lee Ivery Packers RB Georgia Tech 16 Ted Brown Vikings RB North Carolina State 17 Don Smith Falcons DE Miami (FL) - 1 ap 18 Manu Tuiasosopo Seahawks DT UCLA 19 George Andrews Rams LB Nebraska 20 Willis Adams Browns WR Houston ======================================= 1980 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Billy Sims Lions RB Oklahoma - 2 pb - 2 ap 2 Lam Jones Jets WR Texas >> 3 Anthony Munoz Bengals T USC - 10 pb - 11 ap 4 Bruce Clark Packers DT Penn State - 1 pb 5 Curtis Dickey Colts RB Texas A&M 6 Curtis Greer Cardinals DE Michigan - 1 ap >> 7 Junior Miller Falcons TE Nebraska - 2 pb >> 8 Mark Haynes Giants DB Colorado - 3pb - 5 ap 9 Doug Martin Vikings DT Washington >> 10 Jacob Green Seahawks DE Texas A&M- 2ap - 4 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Brad Budde Chiefs G USC 12 Stan Brock Saints T Colorado 13 Earl Cooper 49ers RB Rice 14 Roland James Patriots DB Tennessee - 1 ap 15 Marc Wilson Raiders QB Brigham Young >> 16 Jim Ritcher Bills C North Carolina State - 2 pb - 2 ap 17 Johnnie Johnson Rams DB Texas - 1 ap >> 18 Art Monk Redskins WR Syracuse - 3 pb - 3 ap >> 19 Otis Wilson Bears LB Louisville - 1 pb - 2 ap 20 Jim Stuckey 49ers DT Clemson ===================================================== 1981 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 5 >> 1 George Rogers Saints RB South Carolina - 2 pb - 2 ap >> 2 Lawrence Taylor Giants LB North Carolina - 10 pb - 8 ap >> 3 Freeman McNeil Jets RB UCLA - 3 pb - 3 ap >> 4 Kenny Easley Seahawks DB UCLA - 5 pb - 5 ap >> 5 E.J. Junior Cardinals LB Alabama - 2 pb - 2 ap 6 Rich Campbell Packers QB California >> 7 Hugh Green Buccaneers LB Pittsburgh - 2 pb - 2 ap >> 8 Ronnie Lott 49ers DB USC - 10 pb - 6 ap 9 Mel Owens Rams LB Michigan 10 David Verser Bengals WR Kansas ----------------------------------------------------- 11 Keith Van Horne Bears T USC 12 Randy McMillan Colts RB Pittsburgh 13 David Overstreet Dolphins RB Oklahoma 14 Willie Scott Chiefs TE South Carolina >> 15 Dennis Smith Broncos DB USC - 6 pb 16 Mark Nichols Lions WR San Jose State 17 Keith Gary Steelers DE Oklahoma 18 Donnell Thompson Colts DT North Carolina >> 19 Brian Holloway Patriots T Stanford - 3 pb - 3 ap 20 Mark May Redskins T Pittsburgh - 1 ap ============================================ 1982 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 2 1 Kenneth Sims Patriots DT Texas 2 Johnie Cooks Colts LB Mississippi State >> 3 Chip Banks Browns LB USC - 4 pb - 4 ap 4 Art Schlichter Colts QB Ohio State >> 5 Jim McMahon Bears QB Brigham Young - 1 pb - 1 ap 6 Jeff Bryant Seahawks DE Clemson - 1 ap 7 Darrin Nelson Vikings RB Stanford >> 8 Mike Munchak Oilers G Penn State - 9 pb - 2 ap >> 9 Gerald Riggs Falcons RB Arizona State - 3 pb - 2 ap >> 10 Marcus Allen Raiders RB USC - 5 pb - 2 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Anthony Hancock Chiefs WR Tennessee 12 Walter Abercrombie Steelers RB Baylor 13 Lindsay Scott Saints WR Georgia 14 Barry Redden Rams RB Richmond 15 Jimmy Williams Lions LB Nebraska >> 16 Luis Sharpe Cardinals T UCLA - 3 pb - 4 ap 17 Sean Farrell Buccaneers G Penn State - 1 ap 18 Butch Woolfork Giants RB Michigan 19 Perry Tuttle Bills WR Clemson >> 20 Mike Quick Eagles WR North Carolina State - 5 pb - 4 ap ==================================== 1983 - 8 - 2 - top 5 = 5 >> 1 John Elway Colts QB Stanford - 9 pb >> 2 Eric Dickerson Rams RB SMU - 5 pb - 4 ap >> 3 Curt Warner Seahawks RB Penn State - 3 pb - 4 ap >> 4 Chris Hinton Broncos T Northwestern - 7 pb - 1 ap >> 5 Billy Ray Smith Chargers LB Arkansas - 3 ap >> 6 Jimbo Covert Bears T Pittsburgh - 2 pb - 2 ap 7 Todd Blackledge Chiefs QB Penn State 8 Michael Haddix Eagles RB Mississippi State >> 9 Bruce Matthews Oilers G USC - 14 pb - 7 ap >> 10 Terry Kinard Giants DB Clemson - 1 pb - 1 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Tim Lewis Packers DB Pittsburgh - 1 ap 12 Tony Hunter Bills TE Notre Dame 13 James Jones Lions RB Florida - >> 14 Jim Kelly Bills QB Miami (FL) 5 pb - 1 ap 15 Tony Eason Patriots QB Illinois 16 Mike Pitts Falcons DE Alabama 17 Leonard Smith Cardinals DB McNeese State 1 ap 18 Willie Gualt Bears WR Tennessee >> 19 Joey Browner Vikings DB USC - 6 pb - 5 ap 20 Gary Anderson Chargers RB Arkansas - 1 pb ================================ 1984 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 3 >> 1 Irving Fryar Patriots WR Nebraska - 5 pb - 1 ap 2 Dean Steinkuhler Oilers T Nebraska >> 3 Carl Banks Giants LB Michigan State - 1 pb - 1 ap 4 Kenny Jackson Eagles WR Penn State >> 5 Bill Maas Chiefs DT Pittsburgh - 2 ap 6 Mossy Cade Chargers DB Texas 7 Ricky Hunley Bengals LB Arizona 8 Leonard Coleman Colts DB Vanderbilt 9 Rick Bryan Falcons DT Oklahoma - 1 ap 10 Russell Carter Jets DB SMU -------------------------------------- >> 11 Wilber Marshall Bears LB Florida - 3 pb - 2 ap 12 Alphonso Carreker Packers DE Florida State >> 13 Keith Millard Vikings DE Washington State - 2 pb - 4 ap 14 Jackie Shipp Dolphins LB Oklahoma 15 Ron Faurot Jets DE Arkansas 16 Pete Koch Bengals DE Maryland 17 Clyde Duncan Cardinals WR Tennessee 18 Don Rogers Browns DB UCLA >> 19 Ron Solt Colts G Maryland - 1 pb - 1 ap 20 David Lewis Lions TE California ========================================== 1985 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 5 >> 1 Bruce Smith Bills DE Virginia Tech 11 pb - 8 ap >> 2 Bill Fralic Falcons T Pittsburgh - 4 pb - 3 ap >> 3 Ray Childress Oilers DE Texas A&M - 5 pb - 6 ap >> 4 Chris Doleman Vikings DE Pittsburgh - 8 pb - 4 ap >> 5 Duane Bickett Colts LB USC - 1 pb - 2 ap >> 6 Lomas Brown Lions T Florida - 7 pb - 6 ap 7 Ken Ruettgers Packers T USC 8 Ron Holmes Buccaneers DE Washington 9 Kevin Allen Eagles T Indiana >> 10 Al Toon Jets WR Wisconsin - 3 pb - 3 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Richard Johnson Oilers DB Wisconsin >> 12 Jim Lachey Chargers T Ohio State - 3 pb - 5 ap 13 Eddie Brown Bengals WR Miami (FL) - 1 ap 14 Derrick Burroughs Bills DB Memphis State 15 Ethan Horton Chiefs RB North Carolina >> 16 Jerry Rice 49ers WR Mississippi Valley State - 13 pb - 10 ap 17 Kevin Brooks Cowboys DE Michigan 18 Freddie Joe Nunn Cardinals DE Mississippi 19 George Adams Giants RB Kentucky 20 Darryl Sims Steelers DE Wisconsin ======================================= 1986 - 4 - 1 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Bo Jackson Buccaneers RB Auburn - 1 pb - 2 ap 2 Tony Casillas Falcons DT Oklahoma - 1 ap >> 3 Jim Everett Oilers QB Purdue - 1 pb - 2 ap 4 Jon Hand Colts DE Alabama 5 Anthony Bell Cardinals LB Michigan State 6 Jim Dombrowski Saints T Virginia 7 Brian Jozwiak Chiefs T West Virginia >> 8 Leslie O'Neal Chargers DE Oklahoma State - 6 pb 9 John Rienstra Steelers G Temple >> 10 Keith Byars Eagles RB Ohio State - 1 pb - 1 ap ------------------------------------ 11 Joe Kelly Bengals LB Washington 12 Chuck Long Lions QB Iowa 13 James Fitzpatrick Chargers T USC 14 Gerald Robinson Vikings DE Auburn 15 John L. Williams Seahawks RB Florida 16 Ronnie Harmon Bills RB Iowa - 1 pb 17 Tim Green Falcons LB Syracuse 18 Mike Sherrard Cowboys WR UCLA 19 Eric Dorsey Giants DE Notre Dame >> 20 Will Wolford Bills T Vanderbilt - 3 pb - 2 ap ================================= 1987 - 5 - 1 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers QB Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 1 ap >> 2 Cornelius Bennett Colts LB Alabama - 5 pb - 1 ap 3 Alonzo Highsmith Oilers RB Miami (FL) 4 Brent Fullwood Packers RB Auburn - 1 pb 5 Mike Junkin Browns LB Duke 6 Kelly Stouffer Cardinals QB Colorado State 7 Reggie Rogers Lions DE Washington >> 8 Shane Conlan Bills LB Penn State - 3 pb - 3 ap >> 9 Jerome Brown Eagles DT Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 3 ap >> 10 Rod Woodson Steelers DB Purdue 11 pb - 6 ap ------------------------------------------------------ 11 Shawn Knight Saints DT Brigham Young 12 Danny Noonan Cowboys DT Nebraska 13 Chris Miller Falcons QB Oregon - 1 pb 14 D.J. Dozier Vikings RB Penn State 15 John Clay Raiders T Missouri 16 John Bosa Dolphins DE Boston College 17 Jason Buck Bengals DE Brigham Young 18 Tony Woods Seahawks LB Pittsburgh 19 Paul Palmer Chiefs RB Temple >> 20 Haywood Jeffires Oilers WR North Carolina State - 3 pb - 2 ap ========================================= 1988 - 6 - 7 - top 5 = 3 1 Aundray Bruce Falcons LB Auburn - >> 2 Neil Smith Chiefs DE Nebraska - 6 pb - 6 ap >> 3 Bennie Blades Lions DB Miami (FL) - 1 pb - 3 ap >> 4 Paul Gruber Buccaneers T Wisconsin - 3 ap 5 Rickey Dixon Bengals DB Oklahoma >> 6 Tim Brown Raiders WR Notre Dame - 7 + - ap + >> 7 Sterling Sharpe Packers WR South Carolina - 5 pb - 5 ap 8 Dave Cadigan Jets T USC - >> 9 Terry McDaniel Raiders DB Tennessee - 5 pb - 2 ap 10 Eric Moore Giants T Indiana ------------------------------------- >> 11 Michael Irvin Cowboys WR Miami (FL) - + pb - + ap >> 12 Ken Harvey Cardinals LB California - + pb - + ap >> 13 Keith Jackson Eagles TE Oklahoma - 5 pb - 4 ap >> 14 Gaston Green Rams RB UCLA - 1 pb - 1 ap >> 15 Anthony Miller Chargers WR Tennessee - 5 pb - 3 ap 16 Eric Kumerow Dolphins DE Ohio State >> 17 John Stephens Patriots RB NW Louisiana - 1 pb - 1 ap 18 Aaron Jones Steelers DE Eastern Kentucky - >> 19 Randall McDaniel Vikings G Arizona State - 12 pb - 7 ap 20 Aaron Cox Rams WR Arizona State ================================================= 1989 - 4 -1 - top 5 = 4 >> 1 Troy Aikman Cowboys QB UCLA - 6 pb 2 Tony Mandarich Packers T Michigan State >> 3 Barry Sanders Lions RB Oklahoma State - 10 pb - 5 ap >> 4 Derrick Thomas Chiefs LB Alabama - 9 pb - 2 ap >> 5 Deion Snaders Falcons DB Florida State 8 pb - 6 ap 6 Broderick Thomas Buccaneers LB Nebraska 7 Tim Worley Steelers RB Georgia 8 Burt Grossman Chargers DE Pittsburgh 9 Sammie Smith Dolphins RB Florida State 10 Eric Hill Cardinals LB LSU --------------------------------------------- 11 Donnell Woolford Bears DB Clemson - 1 pb 12 Trace Armstrong Bears DE Florida 1 pb 13 Eric Metcalf Browns RB Texas 14 Jeff Lageman Jets LB Virginia - 1 ap 15 Andy Heck Seahawks T Notre Dame - 1 ap 16 Hart Lee Dykes Patriots WR Oklahoma State 17 Joe Wolf Cardinals G Boston College 18 Brian Williams Giants C Minnesota 19 Wayne Martin Saints DE Arkansas - 1 pb >> 20 Steve Atwater Broncos DB Arkansas - 8 pb - + ap ========================================= 1990 - 4 - 3 - top 5 = 2 1 Jeff George Colts QB Illinois 2 Blair Thomas Jets RB Penn State >> 3 Cortez Kennedy Seahawks DT Miami (FL) - 7 pb - 6 ap 4 Keith McCants Buccaneers LB Alabama >> 5 Junior Seau Chargers LB USC - 12 pb - 6 ap >> 6 Mark Carrier Bears DB USC - 3 pb - 3 ap 7 Andre Ware Lions QB Houston 8 Chris Singleton Patriots LB Arizona >> 9 Richmond Webb Dolphins T Texas A&M - 7 pb - 3 ap 10 Ray Agnew Patriots DE North Carolina State - -------------------------------------------- 11 Anthony Smith Raiders DE Arizona 12 James Francis Bengals LB Baylor 13 Percy Snow Chiefs LB Michigan State >> 14 Renaldo Turnbull Saints DE West Virginia - 1 pb - 1 ap >> 15 Lamar Lathon Oilers LB Houston - 1 pb - 1 ap 16 James Williams Bills DB Fresno State >> 17 Emmitt Smith Cowboys RB Florida 8 pb - 4 ap 18 Tony Bennett Packers LB Mississippi 19 Darrell Thompson Packers RB Minnesota 20 Steve Broussard Falcons RB Washington State ============================================== 1991 - 3 - 0 - top 5 = 1 1 Russell Maryland Cowboys DT Miami (FL) - 1 pb >> 2 Eric Turner Browns DB UCLA - 2 pb - 1 ap 3 Bruce Pickens Falcons DB Nebraska 4 Mike Croel Broncos LB Nebraska 5 Todd Lyght Rams DB Notre Dame - 1 pb >> 6 Eric Swann Cardinals DE None - 2 pb - 2 ap 7 Charles McRae Buccaneers T Tennessee 8 Antone Davis Eagles T Tennessee 9 Stanley Richard Chargers DB Texas >> 10 Herman Moore Lions WR Virginia - 4 pb - 3 ap --------------------------------------- 11 Pat Harlow Patriots T USC 12 Alvin Harper Cowboys WR Tennessee 13 Mike Pritchard Falcons WR Colorado 14 Leonard Russell Patriots RB Arizona State 15 Huey Richardson Steelers LB Florida 16 Dan McGwire Seahawks QB San Diego State 17 Bobby Wilson Redskins DT Michigan State 18 Alfred Williams Bengals LB Colorado 19 Vinnie Clark Packers DB Ohio State 20 Kelvin Pritchett Cowboys DT Mississippi ================================================ 1992 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 1 1 Steve Emtman Colts DT Washington 2 Quentin Coryatt Colts LB Texas A&M >> 3 Sean Gilbert Rams DT Pittsburgh - 1 pb - 1 ap 4 Desmond Howard Redskins WR Michigan 5 Terrell Buckley Packers DB Florida State - 1 ap 6 David Klingler Bengals QB Houston >> 7 Troy Vincent Dolphins DB Wisconsin - 5 pb - 1 ap >> 8 Bob Whitfield Falcons T Stanford - 1 pb - 1 ap 9 Tommy Vardell Browns RB Stanford 10 Ray Roberts Seahawks T Virginia ------------------------------------------ 11 Leon Searcy Steelers T Miami (FL) - 1 pb >> 12 Marco Coleman Dolphins DE Georgia Tech - 2 pb 13 Eugene Chung Patriots T Virginia Tech 14 Derek Brown Giants TE Notre Dame 15 Johnny Mitchell Jets TE Nebraska >> 16 Chester McGlockton Raiders DT Clemson - 4 pb - + ap 17 Kevin Smith Cowboys DB Texas A&M - 1 ap 18 Dana Hall 49ers DB Washington - 19 Troy Smith Falcons RB Southern Mississippi >> 20 Dale Carter Chiefs DB Tennessee - 4 pb - 4 ap ========================================== 1993 - 5 - 1 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots QB Washington State - 4 pb 2 Rick Mirer Seahawks QB Notre Dame >> 3 Garrison Hearst Cardinals RB Georgia 2 pb 4 Marvin Jones Jets LB Florida State 5 John Copeland Bengals DE Alabama 6 Eric Curry Buccaneers DE Alabama 7 Curtis Conway Bears WR USC >> 8 William Roaf Saints T Louisiana Tech - 11 pb - 3 ap >>9 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons T Washington - 3 pb - 1 ap >> 10 Jerome Bettis Rams RB Notre Dame - 6 pb - 2 ap ------------------------------------- 11 Dan Williams Broncos DE Toledo 12 Patrick Bates Raiders DB Texas A&M >>13 Brad Hopkins Oilers T Illinois - 2 pb 14 Steve Everitt Browns C Michigan 15 Wayne Simmons Packers LB Clemson 16 Sean Dawkins Colts WR California 17 Tom Carter Redskins DB Notre Dame 18 Ernest Dye Cardinals T South Carolina 19 Lester Holmes Eagles G Jackson State 20 Irv Smith Saints TE Notre Dame ==================================== 1994 - 5 - 4 - top 5 = 2 1 Dan Wilkinson Bengals DT Ohio State >> 2 Marshall Faulk Colts RB San Diego State 7 pb - 3 ap 3 Heath Shuler Redskins QB Tennessee >>4 Willie McGinest Patriots DE USC - 2 pb 5 Trev Alberts Colts LB Nebraska 6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers QB Fresno State - 1 pb >> 7 Bryant Young 49ers DT Notre Dame - 4 pb - 1 ap >> 8 Sam Adams Seahawks DT Texas A&M - 3 pb 9 Antonio Langham Browns DB Alabama >> 10 Jamir Miller Cardinals LB UCLA - 1 pb - 1 ap --------------------------------- 11 John Thierry Bears DE Alcorn State >> 12 Aaron Glenn Jets DB Texas A&M - 3 pb >> 13 Joe Johnson Saints DE Louisville 2 pb 14 Bernard Williams Eagles T Georgia 15 Wayne Gandy Rams T Auburn 16 Aaron Taylor Packers T Notre Dame 17 Charles Johnson Steelers WR Colorado 18 DeWayne Washington Vikings DB North Carolina State >> 19 Todd Steussie Vikings T California - 2 pb >> 20 Tim Bowens Dolphins DT Mississippi 2 pb ========================================= 1995 - 4 - 5 - top 5 = 3 1 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals RB Penn State >> 2 Tony Boselli Jaguars T USC - 5 pb - 3 ap >>3 Steve McNair Oilers QB Alcorn State - 3 pb 4 Michael Westbrook Redskins WR Colorado >>5 Kerry Collins Panthers QB Penn State - 2 pb >> 6 Kevin Carter Rams DE Florida - 2 pb - 1ap 7 Mike Mamula Eagles DE Boston College 8 Joey Galloway Seahawks WR Ohio State 9 Kyle Brady Jets TE Penn State 10 J.J. Stokes 49ers WR UCLA -------------------------------------------- 11 Derrick Alexander Vikings DE Florida State >> 12 Warren Sapp Buccaneers DT Miami (FL) - 7 pb - 4 ap >>13 Mark Fields Saints LB Washington State - 2 pb >> 14 Reuben Brown Bills G Pittsburgh - 9 pb 15 Ellis Johnson Colts DT Florida >> 16 Hugh Douglas Jets DE Central State (OH) - 3 pb - 1 ap 17 Tyrone Wheatley Giants RB Michigan 18 Napoleon Kaufman Raiders RB Washington 19 James Stewart Jaguars RB Tennessee >> 20 Luther Elliss Lions DE Utah - 2 pb ========================================== 1996 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 4 >> 1 Keyshawn Johnson Jets WR USC - 3 pb >> 2 Kevin Hardy Jaguars LB Illinois - 1 pb - 1 ap >> 3 Simeon Rice Cardinals DE Illinois - 3 pb 1 ap >> 4 Jonathan Ogden Ravens T UCLA - 11 pb - 4 ap 5 Cedric Jones Giants DE Oklahoma 6 Lawrence Phillips Rams RB Nebraska 7 Terry Glenn Patriots WR Ohio State - 1 pb 8 Tim Biakabutuka Panthers RB Michigan 9 Rickey Dudley Raiders TE Ohio State >>10 Willie Anderson Bengals T Auburn - 4 pb - 3 ap ----------------------------------------- 11 Alex Molden Saints DB Oregon 12 Regan Upshaw Buccaneers DE California 13 Walt Harris Bears DB Mississippi State >> 14 Eddie George Oilers RB Ohio State - 4 pb - 1 ap 15 John Mobley Broncos LB Kutztown (PA) - 1 ap 16 Duane Clemons Vikings DE California 17 Reggie Brown Lions LB Texas A&M 18 Eddie Kennison Rams WR LSU >> 19 Marvin Harrison Colts WR Syracuse - 8 pb - 3 ap 20 Daryl Gardener Dolphins DT Baylor ============================================== 1997 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 3 >> 1 Orlando Pace Rams T Ohio State - 7 pb - 3 ap >> 2 Darrell Russell Raiders DT USC - 2 pb - 1 ap 3 Shawn Springs Seahawks DB Ohio State - 1 pb >> 4 Peter Boulware Ravens DE Florida State - 4 pb 5 Bryant Westbrook Lions DB Texas >> 6 Walter Jones Seahawks T Florida State - 8 pb - 4 ap 7 Ike Hilliard Giants WR Florida >>8 James Farrior Jets LB Virginia - 2 pb - 1 ap 9 TOM Knight Cards CB Iowa 10 Chris Naeole Saints G Colorado ------------------------------------------ 11 Michael Booker Falcons DB Nebraska >> 12 Warrick Dunn Buccaneers RB Florida State - 3 pb >> 13 Tony Gonzalez Chiefs TE California - 12 pb 5 ap 14 Reinard Wilson Bengals DE Florida State 15 Yatil Green Dolphins WR Miami (FL) 16 Reidel Anthony Buccaneers WR Florida 17 Kenard Lang Redskins DE Miami (FL) 18 Kenny Holmes Oilers DE Miami (FL) >>19 Tarik Glenn Colts T California - 3 pb 20 Dwayne Rudd Vikings LB Alabama ==================================== 1998 - 2 - 3 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee - 11 pb - 5 ap 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State 3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State >> 4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan - 8 pb - 3 ap 5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State 6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska 7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State - 1 ap 8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina 9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida 10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL) -------------------------------------- >> 11 Tra Thomas Eagles T Florida State - 3 pb >> 12 Keith Brooking Falcons LB Georgia Tech - 5 pb >>13 Takeo Spikes Bengals LB Auburn - 2 pb - 1 ap 14 Jason Peter Panthers DT Nebraska 15 Anthony Simmons Seahawks LB Clemson 16 Kevin Dyson Oilers WR Utah 17 Brian Simmons Bengals LB North Carolina 18 Robert Edwards Patriots RB Georgia 19 Vonnie Holliday Packers DT North Carolina 20 Terry Fair Lions DB Tennessee ====================================== 1999 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 3 1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky >>2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse 6 pb 3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon >>4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL) - 4 pr - 1 ap >>5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas - 1 pb - 1 ap >>6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State - 7 pb - 1 ap >>7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia - 11 pb - 3 ap >>8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State - 1 pb - 1 ap 9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC >>10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona - 3 pb - 1 ap ------------------------------------------ >>11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings QB Central Florida 3 pb 12 Cade McNown Bears QB UCLA 13 Troy Edwards Steelers WR Louisiana Tech 14 John Tait Chiefs T Brigham Young 15 Anthony McFarland Buccaneers DT LSU >>16 Jevon Kearse Oilers LB Florida - 3 pb - 1 ap 17 Damien Woody Patriots C Boston College 18 Matt Stinchcomb Raiders T Georgia 19 Luke Petitgout Giants T Notre Dame 20 Ebenezer Ekuban Cowboys DE North Carolina ========================================= 2000 - 4 - 6 - top 5 = 3 1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State >>2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State - 3 pb >>3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama - 6 pb 4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State >>5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee - 1 pb - 1 ap 6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State 7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia 8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State >>9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico - 8 pb - 4 ap 10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida --------------------------------------- 11 Ron Dayne Giants RB Wisconsin >>12 Shaun Ellis Jets DE Tennessee - 2 pb >>13 John Abraham Jets LB South Carolina - 4 pb - 2 ap >>14 Bubba Franks Packers TE Miami (FL) - 3 pb >>15 Deltha O'Neal Broncos DB California - 2 pb - 1 ap >>16 Julian Peterson 49ers LB Michigan State - 5 pb - 1 ap 17 Sebastian Janikowski Raiders K Florida State 18 Chad Pennington Jets QB Marshall >>19 Shaun Alexander Seahawks RB Alabama - 3 pb - 1 ap 20 Stockar McDougle Lions T Oklahoma ====================================== 2001 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 4 >>1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech - 4 pb >>2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas - 3 pb 3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida >>4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri - 3 pb - 1 ap >>5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian - 5 pb - 3 ap >>6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia - 7 pb - 3 ap 7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California 8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan 9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State 10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State ---------------------------------------------- 11 Dan Morgan Panthers LB Miami (FL) 12 Damione Lewis Rams DT Miami (FL) >>13 Marcus Stroud Jaguars DT Georgia - 3 pb 14 Kenyatta Walker Buccaneers T Florida 15 Rod Gardner Redskins WR Clemson 16 Santana Moss Jets WR Miami (FL) >>17 Steve Hutchinson Seahawks G Michigan - 7 pb - 5 ap 18 Jeff Backus Lions T Michigan >>19 Casey Hampton Steelers DT Texas - 5 pb 20 Adam Archuleta Rams DB Arizona State ========================================== 2002 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 1 1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State >>2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina - 6 pb - 3 ap 3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon 4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas 5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas 6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina 7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL) >>8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma - 5 pb - 1 ap >>9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee - 2 pb 10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State ------------------------------------- >>11 Dwight Freeney Colts LB Syracuse - 7 pb - 3 ap 12 Wendell Bryant Cardinals DT Wisconsin 13 Donte Stallworth Saints WR Tennessee >>14 Jeremy Shockey Giants TE Miami (FL) 4 pb - 1 ap >>15 Albert Haynesworth Titans DT Tennessee - 2 pb - 2 ap 16 William Green Browns RB Boston College 17 Phillip Buchanon Raiders DB Miami (FL) 18 T.J. Duckett Falcons RB Michigan State 19 Ashley Lelie Broncos WR Hawaii 20 Javon Walker Packers WR Florida State ============================================ 2003 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 3 >>1 Carson Palmer Bengles QB USC - 2 pb 2 Charles Rogers Detroit WR Michigan State >>3 Andre Johnson Houston WR Miami (Fla.) - 5 pb - 2 ap 4 Dewayne Robertson NYJ DT Kentucky >>5 Terence Newman Dallas CB Kansas State - 2 pb 6 Johnathan Sullivan Saints DT Georgia 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars QB Marshall >>8 Jordan Gross Panthers OT Utah - 2 pb - 1 pb >>9 Kevin Williams Vikings DT Oklahoma State - 6 pb - 5 ap >>10 Terrell Suggs Ravens DE Arizona State - 5 pb - 1 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Marcus Trufant Seahawks CB Washington State 12 Jimmy Kennedy Rams DT Penn State 13 Ty Warren Patriots DT Texas A&M 14 Michale Haynes Bears DE Penn State 15 Jerome McDougle Eagles DE Miami (Fla.) >>16 Troy Polamalu Steelers SS Southern California - 7 pb - 4 ap 17 Bryant Johnson Cards WR Penn State 18 Calvin Pace Cards DE Wake Forest 19 Kyle Boller Ravens QB California 20 George Foster Broncos OT Georgia ==================================================== 2004 - 5 - 4 - top 5 = 4 >>1 Eli Manning Chargers QB Mississippi - 2 pb 2 Robert Gallery Raiders OT Iowa >>3 Larry Fitzgerald Cards WR Pittsburgh - 6 pb - 1 ap >>4 Philip Rivers Giants/Chargers QB North Carolina State - 4 pb >>5 Sean Taylor Redskins DB Miami (FL) - 2 pb 6 Kellen Winslow II Browns (from Detroit) TE Miami (FL) 7 Roy Williams Lions (from Cleveland) WR Texas >>8 DeAngelo Hall Falcons DB Virginia Tech - 3 pb 9 Reggie Williams Jaguars WR Washington 10 Dunta Robinson Texans DB South Carolina -------------------------------------------------- >>11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers QB Miami (OH) - 2 pb >>12 Jonathan Vilma NYJ LB Miami (FL) - 2 pb 13 Lee Evans Bills WR Wisconsin >>14 Tommie Harris Bears DT Oklahoma - 3 pb 15 Michael Clayton Bucs WR LSU >>16 Shawn Andrews Eagles (from San Francisco) OT Arkansas = 2 pb - 1 ap 17 D.J. Williams Broncos (from Cincinnati) LB Miami (FL) 18 Will Smith Saints DE Ohio State 19 Vernon Carey Miami (from Minnesota) OT Miami (FL) 20 Kenechi Udeze Vikings (from Miami) DE USC ================================================ 2005 - 1 - 4 - top 5 = 0 1 Alex Smith Niners QB Utah 2 Ronnie Brown Miami RB Auburn 3 Braylon Edwards Browns WR Michigan 4 Cedric Benson Bears RB Texas 5 Cadillac Williams Bucs RB Auburn 6 Pacman Jones Titans CB West Virginia 7 Troy Williamson Vikings WR South Carolina >>8 Antrel Rolle Cards DB Miami (Fla.) - 2 pb 9 Carlos Rogers Skins DB Auburn 10 Mike Williams Lions WR USC ----------------------------------------------- >>11 DeMarcus Ware Cowboys OLB Troy State - 6 pb - 4 ap >>12 Shawne Merriman Chargers OLB Maryland - 3 pb - 1 ap >>13 Jammal Brown Saints T Oklahoma - 2 pb - 1 ap 14 Thomas Davis Panthers DB Georgia >>15 Derrick Johnson Chiefs OLB Texas - 1 pb - 1 ap 16 Travis Johnson Texans DT Florida State 17 David Pollack Bengals LB Georgia 18 Erasmus James Vikings DE Wisconsin 19 Alex Barron Rams T Florida State 20 Marcus Spears Cowboys DE Louisiana State ==================================================== 2006 - 3 - 2 - top 5 = 3 >>1 Mario Williams Texans DE North Carolina State - 2 pb 2 Reggie Bush Saints RB USC >>3 Vince Young Titans QB Texas - 2 pb >>4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Jets T Virginia - 3 pb 5 A.J. Hawk Packers OLB Ohio State 6 Vernon Davis Niners TE Maryland 7 Michael Huff Raiders SS Texas 8 Donte Whitner Bills SS Ohio State 9 Ernie Sims Lions OLB Florida State 10 Matt Leinart Cards QB USC ----------------------------------------------------- 11 Jay Cutler Broncos QB Vanderbilt >>12 Haloti Ngata Ravems DT Oregon - 3 pb - 2 ap 13 Kamerion Wimbley Browns OLB Florida State 14 Brodrick Bunkley Eagles DT Florida State 15 Tye Hill Rams CB Clemson 16 Jason Allen Miami DB Tennessee 17 Chad Greenway Vikings LB Iowa 18 Bobby Carpenter Cowboys LB Ohio State >>19 Antonio Cromartie Chargers CB Florida State - 1 pb - 1 ap 20 Tamba Hali Chiefs DE Penn State ==================================================== 2007 - 3 - 2 - top 5 = 2 1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders QB Louisiana State >>2 Calvin Johnson Lions WR Georgia Tech - 2 pb - 1 ap >>3 Joe Thomas Browns OT Wisconsin - 5 pb - 3 ap 4 Gaines Adams Bucs DE Clemson 5 Levi Brown Cards OT Penn State 6 LaRon Landry Skins SS Louisiana State >>7 Adrian Peterson Vikings RB Oklahoma - 4 pb - 2 ap 8 Jamaal Anderson Falcons DE Arkansas 9 Ted Ginn Jr. Miami WR Ohio State 10 Amobi Okoye Texans DT Louisville --------------------------------------------------- >>11 Patrick Willis Niners ILB Mississippi - 5 pb - 4 ap 12 Marshawn Lynch Bills RB California 13 Adam Carriker Rams NT Nebraska >>14 Darrelle Revis Jets CB Pittsburgh - 4 pb - 3 ap 15 Lawrence Timmons Steelers LB Florida State 16 Justin Harrell Packers DT Tennessee 17 Jarvis Moss Broncos DE Florida 18 Leon Hall Bengals CB Michigan 19 Michael Griffin Titans FS Texas 20 Aaron Ross Giants CB Texas ==================================================== ==================================================== i dont think anyone (or at least myself) is trying to imply that if you pick in the top 5 or 10 that you are guaranteed a high impact player with that pick. the lists i posted clearly show that. but... i think what it does show is that you have a much better chance at achieving the goal of every organization by picking in these slots than in lower ones. to aquire a franchise player it can't just be determined by money vs. reward risk when you draft. otherwise why even draft at all in the first round? you will end up like the redskins under the former bear dc george allen and even without the the salary cap at that time it just didn't work. drafting high... will you miss sometimes? absolutely! but the old saying if you DON'T try you will NEVER succeed. if teams that draft consistanly in the top 5 spots can afford it every year why can't the bear organization in the few times over decades afford it? i think the fact that this franchise has had TWO quality qb's (one was a free agent) in 40 years speaks volumes of the risk reward consequences. these are some interesting draft stats. below are chicago bear hall of fame players and where they were drafted: HOF 1st round top 10 picks 1. Clyde Bulldog Turner 7th pick 1st round 2. Joe Stydahar 6th pick 1st round 3. Gayle Sayers 4th pick 1st round 4. Walther Payton 4th pick 1st round 5. Dan Hampton 4th pick 1st round 6. George McAfee 2nd pick 1st round (drafted by eagles and immediately traded to bears) 7. Sid Luckman 2nd pick 1st round 8. Mike Ditka 5th pick 1st round 9. George Connor 5th pick 1st round (drafted by ny giants) 10. Dick Butkus 3rd pick 1st round 11. Dan Hampton 4th pick 1st round HOF 1st round picks 11 - + 1. Doug Atkins 11th pick 1st round HOF later rounds 1. Mike Singletary 38th pick 2nd round 3. Bill George 2nd round 2. Stan Jones 5th round 6. Richard Dent 8th round 4. Danny Fortmann 9th round pick 5. George Blanda 12th round HOF not listed as draft picks. prior to 1936 1. Bronco Nagurski 2. George Musso 3. Roy Lyman 4. Bill Hewitt 5. Ed Healey 6. George Halas 7. John Driscol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted April 22, 2012 Report Share Posted April 22, 2012 Good work. You know the difference between 23 and 13 percent is ten, but that actual percentage difference is around 48% better.(almost a 2-1 ratio) Also, you didn't give Cutler credit for a PB. Was he an alternate or something. I'd be curious to see how your stats break down per round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 22, 2012 Report Share Posted April 22, 2012 Lucky, First off, great work. With that being said, the Pro Bowl and All-Pro teams are not always about talent and can become somewhat of a popularity contest. Additionally, I don't know how much impact drafts from more than 10 years ago have on today's draft strategies. With the internet, technology, and the shear amount of analysis that goes into the draft these days, I don't think you can compare the eras. Logically, the higher the draft pick, the better odds of that player being successful. I bet if you did an analysis of the entire draft, you would see the same trend between each of the rounds as well. The better the pick, the better chance at finding a star. I don't think it is necessarily tied to a specific draft pick either. It is not like right after #32 that all players are no longer first round talents. It also changes year to year. So all you can do, year in and year out is to take the best player available at a position of need for your team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted April 22, 2012 Report Share Posted April 22, 2012 Here is an article from NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8288..._content_stream It shows that the Patriots have drafted more all-pros since 2002 than any other team. Yet they are always drafting at the bottom of the first round, or trading away their first rounder and not even drafting in the first. Oddly, JA did pretty good over that period as far as the number of all-pros drafted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 22, 2012 Report Share Posted April 22, 2012 Here is an article from NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8288..._content_stream It shows that the Patriots have drafted more all-pros since 2002 than any other team. Yet they are always drafting at the bottom of the first round, or trading away their first rounder and not even drafting in the first. Oddly, JA did pretty good over that period as far as the number of all-pros drafted. Wow, that almost looks like an annual draft order in reverse. Most of the perennial losers at at the bottom (which makes sense). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemonej Posted April 22, 2012 Report Share Posted April 22, 2012 I just watched a program on NFL Network a couple of days ago about steals in the draft.We are currently in an era that has only 7 rounds but since I first started following the draft in the 60's I can remember 17 rounds. Guys like Bart Starr,Deacon Jones,Roland Harper and Doug Plank off the top of my head were all late round guys back then. Lucky Lou did some great research but there have been some guys that he listed that had solid careers that were listed that never made the pro bowl or an all pro team.The 83 draft produce for the Bears what was rated the number 3 draft of all time on NFL Network and that same draft produced some solid players and HOF players and in that draft Dan Marino was taken after the 20th pick as well as 8th rounder Richard Dent and in the same round WR Mark Clayton by Miami in the same round.Then if we factor in all the Curt Warner's and Gary Fencik's of the world you have to realize that now you have more ways to build a team but the draft should still be your main avenue to success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selection7 Posted April 23, 2012 Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 Wow, that almost looks like an annual draft order in reverse. Most of the perennial losers at at the bottom (which makes sense). That's got to be partially because the success of these draft picks is not determined soley by the talent they possessed on draft day. Teams that are perennial losers squander their drafted talent. Also, your point about awards being a popularity contest I agree with, though it could be reworded more as name value (and reptutation...even some that follows you from college) gets you more of a chance at awards, and the higher you're drafted, the more opportunities you'll be given. That said, it's hard to make the pro-bowl or get an all-pro award, so I like the idea of requiring 2 of them, but couldn't some of those players gotten 1 of each during the same fluke (or overhyped) year? For the Top 10...almost double the chance of landing a player who picked up at least 2 probowl/allpro awards is eye-opening though. Recently up until this year , I thought the exorbitant amount of $ required to sign these guys negated much of that. Once you're that set for life, what's the motivation? For some guys, there's not any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted April 23, 2012 Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 Special thanks go to Madlith for re-posting the entire post. My smartphone loves you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted April 23, 2012 Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 I just watched a program on NFL Network a couple of days ago about steals in the draft.We are currently in an era that has only 7 rounds but since I first started following the draft in the 60's I can remember 17 rounds. Guys like Bart Starr,Deacon Jones,Roland Harper and Doug Plank off the top of my head were all late round guys back then. Lucky Lou did some great research but there have been some guys that he listed that had solid careers that were listed that never made the pro bowl or an all pro team.The 83 draft produce for the Bears what was rated the number 3 draft of all time on NFL Network and that same draft produced some solid players and HOF players and in that draft Dan Marino was taken after the 20th pick as well as 8th rounder Richard Dent and in the same round WR Mark Clayton by Miami in the same round.Then if we factor in all the Curt Warner's and Gary Fencik's of the world you have to realize that now you have more ways to build a team but the draft should still be your main avenue to success. There will always be steals in the draft, and even the occasional UDFA steal. However, I think today's NFL teams put far more resources into scouting and talent evaluation than was done 20-30 years ago. I think it's getting more difficult for good players to slip into UDFA status. Nowadays players like Brian Quick from tiny Appalachian State can start out as a late round pick and by draft time be seen as a 2-3rd Rd option despite the lower level of competition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted April 23, 2012 Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 Great research, Lucky! You don't happen to have that in excel or database format do you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted April 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 Good work. You know the difference between 23 and 13 percent is ten, but that actual percentage difference is around 48% better.(almost a 2-1 ratio) Also, you didn't give Cutler credit for a PB. Was he an alternate or something. I'd be curious to see how your stats break down per round. i didn't always list all the players who had only 1 pro-bowl or just 1 all-pro award during their careers. cutler was listed as a pro-bowl player in 2008 but i just didn't list it as he had only one award. i agree it would be interesting to see round by round how these stats break down. it would be a major undertaking that i or someone else may take in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted April 23, 2012 Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 You're welcome! The phone may be smart, but not so strong... Special thanks go to Madlith for re-posting the entire post. My smartphone loves you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted April 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 Lucky, First off, great work. With that being said, the Pro Bowl and All-Pro teams are not always about talent and can become somewhat of a popularity contest. Additionally, I don't know how much impact drafts from more than 10 years ago have on today's draft strategies. With the internet, technology, and the shear amount of analysis that goes into the draft these days, I don't think you can compare the eras. Logically, the higher the draft pick, the better odds of that player being successful. I bet if you did an analysis of the entire draft, you would see the same trend between each of the rounds as well. The better the pick, the better chance at finding a star. I don't think it is necessarily tied to a specific draft pick either. It is not like right after #32 that all players are no longer first round talents. It also changes year to year. So all you can do, year in and year out is to take the best player available at a position of need for your team. i do realize the possible limitations using those as yardsticks but it is the only way other than the HOF that i have found to really judge NFL players careers and how they turned out. 10 year + draft strategies: i do realize that there have been improvements over the decades on possible data produced both medically and in a football sense. the combine is a new feature and yes, the internet and computers have changed some information in the process of evaluation. you also have to take into account the number of current franchise changes over the years but i wanted to give as big a body of information as possible to judge by. just 'one' of the reasons i went with the first 20 picks in round one was due to the fact that the amount of new franchises now in the NFL changes the picks below that drastically. so in the first 20 picks you should still have the best 20 players that would have been drafted even with the franchise additions. for instance, in 1979 even with the new tampa bay bucs added franchise there were only 28 teams in the NFL. today there are 32. that may not seem like a lot of additions but when you add just 4 more teams to the draft equation there are literally 208 less quality players in the NFL in a 7 round draft. that is a HUGE amount of talent drain and just one reason they are scouring smaller schools and conferences for talent today. there is just so much talent to go around so what you are getting today is a watered down version of quality play in the NFL that some of the younger fans have never seen before. your last statements: i agree. the higher the pick the better the quality usually. there is and always has been that exception to the rule when lower round players or even walk-ons, johnny unitis comes to mind, are factored in. but the percentages just are not there compared to the higher picked players especially in the 1st round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted April 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 Here is an article from NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8288..._content_stream It shows that the Patriots have drafted more all-pros since 2002 than any other team. Yet they are always drafting at the bottom of the first round, or trading away their first rounder and not even drafting in the first. Oddly, JA did pretty good over that period as far as the number of all-pros drafted. there are many factors involved on the results of which teams do well. the quality of the GM, or player evaluators, come draft day along with coaching do play a limited role somewhat. that also comes into the realm of who your key players are and the quality they possess. example: tom brady a future HOF quarterback and drew bledsoe a very good franchise quarterback certainly have a lot to do with where the pats have drafted over this period of time. also the pats have traded players and moved down in the drafts using a shotgun approach for quality in the first three rounds (unlike angelo who seemed to love getting 6th and 7th round picks by trading down and having the pleasure of cutting them after training camp). not needing the top priorities like QB, LT or DE for so long lets him draft players in less critical positions at a higher rate giving him a better shot at getting quality in these type of players. i don't see angelo as having done even remotely well drafting all-pro players. here is the list of bear all-pro starters since he arrived in 2001... olin kreutz julius peppers brian urlacher LANCE BRIGGS mike brown the only one he drafted was lance briggs. NOTE: i don't consider drafting special teams players in this list to be of any importance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted April 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 I just watched a program on NFL Network a couple of days ago about steals in the draft.We are currently in an era that has only 7 rounds but since I first started following the draft in the 60's I can remember 17 rounds. Guys like Bart Starr,Deacon Jones,Roland Harper and Doug Plank off the top of my head were all late round guys back then. Lucky Lou did some great research but there have been some guys that he listed that had solid careers that were listed that never made the pro bowl or an all pro team.The 83 draft produce for the Bears what was rated the number 3 draft of all time on NFL Network and that same draft produced some solid players and HOF players and in that draft Dan Marino was taken after the 20th pick as well as 8th rounder Richard Dent and in the same round WR Mark Clayton by Miami in the same round.Then if we factor in all the Curt Warner's and Gary Fencik's of the world you have to realize that now you have more ways to build a team but the draft should still be your main avenue to success. i agree that many players not listed have had good to great careers but still are not considered in the elite category except maybe by their franchises fans. i can only go with the stats that i am able to put together as a whole through general consensus by designating them pro-bowl or all-pro accolades. i would really have no idea what most of the teams players throughout the decades would be worthy of as i have never followed them that closely and quite frankly i seriously doubt anyone could do so. there also will always be the wildcard walk-on type of player, unitis, like i stated in an earlier post but i am only taking this to the general rule of percentages. thanks for your comments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted April 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 Great research, Lucky! You don't happen to have that in excel or database format do you? i thought of this when compiling this data but the message boards do not (to my knowledge) allow for excel data base files to be posted. so i had to do it the old fashion way. thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 23, 2012 Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 Great work, and interesting numbers. for the record 23 is a 77% improvement over 13. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted April 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 Great work, and interesting numbers. for the record 23 is a 77% improvement over 13. thanks. i'm not the sharpest tool in the drawer when it comes to math. the 10% i used was for the total drafting in picks 1-20. i hope that was right? but the other percentage you stated sounds very much like another reason to move up if possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 23, 2012 Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 thanks. i'm not the sharpest tool in the drawer when it comes to math. the 10% i used was for the total drafting in picks 1-20. i hope that was right? but the other percentage you stated sounds very much like another reason to move up if possible. Well, if you had 50 cents, and then you had a dollar, that increase of 50 cents would be a 100% increase right? 50 + another 50. So from 13 to 23 is a 77% increase. If it went to 26, that'd be a 100% increase, cuz it was another 13! The truth is that yes, every 5 slots or so in the first round makes a huge difference in talent available. There are usually about 5 amazing players in each draft and 20 or so more really good ones. Maybe the talent at 15 is similar to the talent at 10, but at 10 you get a wider choice of positions. At 19 we are right on the cusp, so trading up for a specific player might make sense if oyu're one player away or have a glaring need that needs a starter right away. Emery has done a good job of addressing needs, now he can go get best player available, or even trade down. I suspect he will pick a DL or WR at 19 tho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted April 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 Well, if you had 50 cents, and then you had a dollar, that increase of 50 cents would be a 100% increase right? 50 + another 50. So from 13 to 23 is a 77% increase. If it went to 26, that'd be a 100% increase, cuz it was another 13! The truth is that yes, every 5 slots or so in the first round makes a huge difference in talent available. There are usually about 5 amazing players in each draft and 20 or so more really good ones. Maybe the talent at 15 is similar to the talent at 10, but at 10 you get a wider choice of positions. At 19 we are right on the cusp, so trading up for a specific player might make sense if oyu're one player away or have a glaring need that needs a starter right away. Emery has done a good job of addressing needs, now he can go get best player available, or even trade down. I suspect he will pick a DL or WR at 19 tho. sounds right to me. if i were emery though this is how my draft would be... 1. if any of the LT's look like a real solid good prospect i feel that cutlers health is worth what i have to give up to get that guy. 2. with those same parameters if no LT looks like the real deal i would then look at that G decastro? and draft a super high quality guard at 19 for the same reasons, cutlers health is paramount. it opens up our interior OL to be much, much better not only now but for our future as well. it gives us a high quality interior guard, makes competition at the other guard position that much better between garza, chris williams or anyone else on our roster. it also makes our center position stronger by making the competition between garza and spencer that much more intense. now we can actually move one of our guards out to the tackle position, c. williams, if he is better than webb and not be hamstrung at guard position. same holds true if we moved carimi to LT. 3. if a killer center is there i would very strongly consider drafting him there. this improves our interior OL again by a huge factor. it moves garza out to compete with spencer, lance louis or c. williams at guard and is a cornerstone between our franchise qb for his entire career in chicago by keeping the pocket solid up the middle. 4. i would draft a CB. if fitzpatrick looks like he could play man up on the LOS i take him. if another at that quality when we pick is there and is a better choice for man coverage take him. this makes our entire defense better including our DT's and DE's by covering man in the zone between our safeties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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