Is Forte worth what McCoy got?

[Stinger226]

Here in an interesting article from NFP.

The Philadelphia Eagles understand this process. With LeSean McCoy set to enter the final season of his four-year rookie contract, the Philadelphia front office cleared the necessary cap space and rewarded one of the league’s best running backs with a five-year contract extension worth $45 million with $20.765 million guaranteed on Thursday.

 

McCoy is happy. The team is happy. 2012 could be a big year for the Birds.

 

LeSean McCoy landed a lucrative new contract extension after a record-setting 2011 season.

The McCoy deal serves as the most recent example of how the Eagles have done an excellent job of identifying, evaluating and solving potential problems. Disgruntled wideout DeSean Jackson got his big payday back in March and should be nothing but smiles heading into training camp. Defensive woes were addressed with the acquisition of veteran linebacker DeMeco Ryans as well as the selections of DT Fletcher Cox, LB Mychal Kendricks and DE Vinny Curry in April’s draft.

 

The forecast is looking good in Philadelphia.

 

But just over 750 miles to the west, a storm has been building on the horizon.

 

Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte wants to feel the love. Since entering the league in 2008, only five players have amassed more total yards from scrimmage than Forte. Two of those players (Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson) struck gold last offseason and should be financially set for life. Forte wants to join CJ2K and AP in the VIP section, but at the current moment, the Bears don’t appear willing to shell out the paper.

 

This much we can accept as fact: Matt Forte deserves a new contract. He earned a trip to January's Pro Bowl and during his first three seasons in the NFL, Forte started all 48 games for Chicago and accounted for 33% of the Bears’ total offense.

 

But does Forte deserve to be paid the same amount of money as LeSean McCoy? He and his agent will vehemently argue yes, but they could run into some pitfalls along the way:

 

1. Age: Forte turns 27-years-old on December 10 while McCoy turns 24-years-old on July 12. That’s a big gap when it comes to the running back position. Forte also has an additional 436 touches worth of tread on his tires, having played in 14 more regular season games than McCoy.

 

2. Competition: McCoy is the featured back in Philadelphia and will only lose carries if he’s hurt or needs a quick break during the game. On the other hand, Forte now has to contend with the likes of former Oakland Raider Michael Bush, who signed a four-year deal with the Bears back in March. Bush is one of the league’s most underrated running backs, having amassed 1,395 total yards and eight scores in just nine starts last season due to an injury sustained by starter Darren McFadden. With Bush on the roster, the Bears won’t need Forte to handle as much of the load as he has in the past.

 

3. Career Production: McCoy is coming off an All-Pro season in which he was named the FedEx Ground Player of the Year while setting the Philadelphia franchise record for single-season touchdowns (20). He’s averaging 5.29 yards per touch for his career vs. Forte’s 5.02. In addition, McCoy has found the end zone once every 24.3 touches during his career, while Forte is scoring once every 42.6 touches.

 

 

 

The above chart illustrates another discrepancy between the two players. In McCoy’s three NFL campaigns, the Philadelphia running back tends to produce at a consistent level throughout the entire season, while Forte’s production tends to decrease during the second half of the year.

 

Further complicating the negotiations will be the Arian Foster dynamic. The Houston running back signed a five-year, $43.5 million deal with $20.75 million guaranteed back in March. Forte and his agent, Adisa Bakari, will likely point to this extension as well during their talks with the Bears front office, but you have to remember that Foster has produced at a much higher level over the last two seasons than Forte. Since 2010, Foster ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards (2,840), first in rushing touchdowns (26) and first in total yards from scrimmage (4,061). He’s also a year younger than Forte and has 451 less touches worth of wear on his tires.

 

As it stands, the Bears appear content to let Forte play out the 2012 season under the franchise tag at a value of $7.742 million. That’s a significant wedge of cheese, but it pales in comparison to the $20+ million in guarantees that both McCoy and Foster landed this offseason.

 

Identify, assess and solve. Chicago and Philadelphia have taken two different approaches to a very similar problem. It should be interesting to see which organization’s approach yields the greater return.

 

 

[Guest TerraTor]

Should be 18Guaranteed in my opinion

[balta1701-A]

Should be 18Guaranteed in my opinion

Just my impression, but I get the feeling that if Forte was willing to accept $18 the team would have gotten there.

[LT2_3]

Just my impression, but I get the feeling that if Forte was willing to accept $18 the team would have gotten there.

 

$18 million is what the Bears will pay franchising him for 2 years. I guarantee the Bears are offering at least that.

 

I've read that Forte thinks he should be paid closer to AP and CJ.

[Bears4Ever_34]

He's not the running back McCoy is, so no. And if Forte thinks he deserves as much or more, he can go kick rocks. He's probably worth between 16-18 mil guaranteed at most.

[AZ54]

Given the high injury risk and short "peak" career years I prefer to build a roster with the 2 RB approach and focus more $$ on the oline since they can do double duty in protecting the QB and opening the holes for RBs. Give me 2 Michael Bush types for $7mil/yr versus one Matt Forte and one Michael Bush for (based on current contracts) what will end up being over $11mil/yr. Reality is we still have to have depth at RB.

 

I take my extra $3mil and apply it to one LT position and instead of getting an average LT at $4-5mil/yr I can afford a top 10 LT at $7-8mil/yr.

 

Emery's approach to the roster and Forte's contract indicates to me that he feels the same. That's why I said months ago when it was clear Forte's demands for $20mil guaranteed likely meant the club would take him one season at a time on the franchise tag and spend the same money. If he's hurt seriously this season (I hope not) they have hedged their bets. I hate to say it but it's a business and that is how all GMs have to approach the product on the field.

 

The way they'll have to find common ground would be wrapping in more pay in performance bonuses and significant roster bonuses payable early in the offseason. Team still has some way out without committing all that money upfront yet Forte still has reasonable assurance he'll get paid as long as he continues to perform. I don't know if they'll find that common ground, it doesn't appear they will.

[LT2_3]

AZ54 - The problem with trying to assign salary cap dollars like that is that the personnel acquisition piece doesn't work that way. The only way to get a top 10 OLT is to draft one. Once drafted, you pay them what their slot dictates, and once their rookie contract is up, you pay them the going rate or lose them which is moronic.

 

When applied to other positions, it works similarly.

 

One thing to note when it comes to guaranteed money for Forte, the 2 year franchise tag cost id $16.9 million. That should be the guaranteed money starting point.

[Stinger226]

He's not the running back McCoy is, so no. And if Forte thinks he deserves as much or more, he can go kick rocks. He's probably worth between 16-18 mil guaranteed at most.

I agree, and you think that would get it done, but so much for tempered egos. Sean Jensen on the Score this morning brought up an interesting point. With all his good stats, he doenst score TDs as the same rate as the better high paid RBs do in the league. example McCoy-20 TDs. Forte-4 Even D. Williams, who really sucked last year had 7.

[balta1701-A]

He's not the running back McCoy is, so no. And if Forte thinks he deserves as much or more, he can go kick rocks. He's probably worth between 16-18 mil guaranteed at most.

I'd say the real problem here, in my eyes, is that Forte thinks he deserves that level of contract. If he'd been willing to go under $20 mil guaranteed, this would already be done.

[selection7]

Yeah, I hadn't paid that close of attention to McCoy, but his last two years are probably better than any season Forte has had, and he's 3 years younger.

[AZ54]

AZ54 - The problem with trying to assign salary cap dollars like that is that the personnel acquisition piece doesn't work that way. The only way to get a top 10 OLT is to draft one. Once drafted, you pay them what their slot dictates, and once their rookie contract is up, you pay them the going rate or lose them which is moronic.

 

When applied to other positions, it works similarly.

 

One thing to note when it comes to guaranteed money for Forte, the 2 year franchise tag cost id $16.9 million. That should be the guaranteed money starting point.

 

I agree and I know it's not that simple but after working a 14hr shift I wasn't going to type out all the variations, just saying I'm not a big fan of putting all our apples in one RB basket and I think that extra money is better spend elsewhere across the offense's roster. By the way it's the same with the QB...you pretty much have to draft them and then you have to pay the going rate. Rarely do guys like Cutler hit the market.

[LT2_3]

I agree and I know it's not that simple but after working a 14hr shift I wasn't going to type out all the variations, just saying I'm not a big fan of putting all our apples in one RB basket and I think that extra money is better spend elsewhere across the offense's roster. By the way it's the same with the QB...you pretty much have to draft them and then you have to pay the going rate. Rarely do guys like Cutler hit the market.

 

Fair enough.

[Bears4Ever_34]

My opinion. This is how I'd rank the top 10 RB's

 

1. AP

2. CJ

3. McCoy

4. Foster

5. Rice (Toss up between he and Forte)

6. Forte (Toss up between he and Rice)

7. MJD

8. McFadden

9. Gore

10. Lynch/Steven Jackson (toss up)

[LT2_3]

My opinion. This is how I'd rank the top 10 RB's

 

1. AP

2. CJ

3. McCoy

4. Foster

5. Rice (Toss up between he and Forte)

6. Forte (Toss up between he and Rice)

7. MJD

8. Gore

9. Steven Jackson

10. Lynch

 

I'd put CJ off the list till he consistently regains his form.

[Stinger226]

I'd put CJ off the list till he consistently regains his form.

Pompei has a informative article in the trib on this subject. He talked to an player agent and a team negotiator and both put a fair contract at 19.5 guart. and around 8 mil a year. I think from what we know of the Bears orgingal offer, just give him a 3 year deal at 24 mil with 17 guart. and be done with it. Although, I think Forte base is what everybody but the Bears think is a fair deal. Plus, he would want a 5 year deal.Other than team disruption, I have no problem with a two year F. tag and see him go away. He is creeping into the years where a RB makes a big drop off after 29 if you give him a long term deal.

[LT2_3]

Pompei has a informative article in the trib on this subject. He talked to an player agent and a team negotiator and both put a fair contract at 19.5 guart. and around 8 mil a year. I think from what we know of the Bears orgingal offer, just give him a 3 year deal at 24 mil with 17 guart. and be done with it. Although, I think Forte base is what everybody but the Bears think is a fair deal. Plus, he would want a 5 year deal.Other than team disruption, I have no problem with a two year F. tag and see him go away. He is creeping into the years where a RB makes a big drop off after 29 if you give him a long term deal.

 

We still don't know where the sides are though. One of the things I've read (from the Biggs article: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/footb...0,1196500.story ) is that Forte's agent has been in town and that he may have been managing Forte's expectations. That tells me that Forte may still have delusions of grandeur - as in AP or CJ money.

 

Come to think about it, Pompeii is usually a very pro-team writer. It could be that his whole tier article (blue/red-plus/red) could have been to get Forte to get his head out of the clouds regarding his value and not (as many have taken it) as trying to get the team to increase their offer.

 

Maybe it's a little of both.......

[CrackerDog]

If the Bears strike a deal with Forte, does the tag money go back into the pool? I know they'd be using it on him, mostly. Just wondering how we can continue to hear discussion about doing a deal with him when there's only $3 mil left.

[madlithuanian]

My understanding is the cap doesn't change. I think you can shift sands...whether you want to call $7M a tag or a salary. So, I think they could offer a max of basically $10M this season...and then the tag is off and we can't tag anyone else until next season.

 

LT2_3, do you know different?

 

If the Bears strike a deal with Forte, does the tag money go back into the pool? I know they'd be using it on him, mostly. Just wondering how we can continue to hear discussion about doing a deal with him when there's only $3 mil left.

 

[LT2_3]

As of right now, Forte costs $7.7 million against the cap. If they sign Forte (for instance) to a 5 year deal with a $10 million signing bonus and a $1 million first year salary (with other money later in the deal also guaranteed) his cap hit would drop to $3 million for this year freeing up $4.7 million in cap space this year.

 

Does that explain it or do I need to explain guaranteed money after year 1 and signing bonus prorations too?

[selection7]

Does that explain it or do I need to explain guaranteed money after year 1 and signing bonus prorations too?

Ehhhhhhhh...what's a "money"? I already know what professional rations are though.

[LT2_3]

Ehhhhhhhh...what's a "money"? I already know what professional rations are though.

 

LOL

[CrackerDog]

As of right now, Forte costs $7.7 million against the cap. If they sign Forte (for instance) to a 5 year deal with a $10 million signing bonus and a $1 million first year salary (with other money later in the deal also guaranteed) his cap hit would drop to $3 million for this year freeing up $4.7 million in cap space this year.

 

Does that explain it or do I need to explain guaranteed money after year 1 and signing bonus prorations too?

 

That does it. Basically it wipes the old deal off the books.

[AZ54]

Bears concerned how 28-year-old running back's knees will hold up.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/footb...,4014548.column

 

 

I think this sums it up for the Bears. Why is this out now? Bears releasing information to soften Forte's stance? Or is this Haugh doing some research on his own to find out why the two sides are so far apart and have remained that way through two GMs?

[Bears4Ever_34]

Just read that article. Pretty much assures us that the Bears are definitely not in any rush to get a long term contract ironed out with Forte. Franchising him until his legs fall off seems to be a logical plan. I believe we can do it up to 3 times, which basically equals out to almost exactly the type of deal Forte wanted in the first place, for guaranteed money.

[selection7]

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Tougher-Game-of-Tag.html

There is no limit to how many times the same player can be franchise tagged.

 

From National Football Post/Andrew Brandt- If a player is coming off a season as a Tag player or had a very high salary number in his previous year, he is still protected, as the Tag will be 120% of his previous year’s number. And, although if a player is tagged three consecutive seasons he must have the highest Tag number available, there is no limitation on the number of consecutive uses of the Franchise Tag on the same player.

 

If the above is true, we really have nothing to worry about.