Why Forte is poised for a huge year

[jason]

I was looking at TDs today and why Forte didn't have them. That's the major downside he's got when compared to other RBs with similar contracts. The results were surprising.

 

First, remember he only played 10 full games, and the 1st qtr of the 11th game.

 

On plays that originate outside the 10yd line, Forte was stopped inside the 10yd line, but before the goal-line on:

-5 running plays

-3 passing plays

 

On plays that originate inside the 10yd line, Forte was stopped short of the goal-line on:

-9 running plays (6 of the 9 plays were for zero or negative yards)

-3 passing plays

 

That's a lot of bad luck, and a lot of bad OL play. If either improves, expect Forte's TDs to be around 10. If either improves and he plays the entire year, he might just have an MVP type year.

[adam]

Jason,

However, Bush is going to take a higher percentage of carries than past backups and will probably get more goal-line chances than Forte. Also, with the improved passing game and Red-Zone threats, we may be passing more in the RZ. If anything I believe Forte's numbers will drop slightly across the board.

[Bears4Ever_34]

I was just going to say, unless Matt breaks a lot of big gainers this season, I expect more of the same because Michael Bush is likely to be the guy that gets the bulk of the carries on the goal line like Marion Barber from last season. It's not a knock against Forte, it's just that we have a bruiser behind him that's fit to crush through linebackers like a bulldozer when he gets a head of steam.

[adam]

I was just going to say, unless Matt breaks a lot of big gainers this season, I expect more of the same because Michael Bush is likely to be the guy that gets the bulk of the carries on the goal line like Marion Barber from last season. It's not a knock against Forte, it's just that we have a bruiser behind him that's fit to crush through linebackers like a bulldozer when he gets a head of steam.

Bush has also had more rushing TD's than Forte the last 2 years, and I would assume that would continue. I really like the combination of Forte and Bush, they compliment each other very well, and both can catch out of the backfield. They are definitely a top-3 tandem in the league.

[Wesson44]

Bush has also had more rushing TD's than Forte the last 2 years, and I would assume that would continue. I really like the combination of Forte and Bush, they compliment each other very well, and both can catch out of the backfield. They are definitely a top-3 tandem in the league.

 

IMHO I dont think Forte will have a huge year but a good one, resaon being is that we have too many weapons now on offense to feature him like we have done in the past. Marshall. Jeffrey, Bennett, Hester, etc.... at WR, Bush, Bell backing up Forte at RB, Davis, Spaeth, and Rodriguez at TE will benefit form Tice/Bates spreading the ball around and using these players to their strengths.

[BearFan2000]

I also don't see Forte having a breakout type of year either. One of the things in the past that fueled the "pay the man" battle cry was the large percentage of our overall offense that Forte represented. In a lot of ways he was our best offensive weapon. While that speaks well of Forte it also speaks poorly of our other offensive weapons or lack of. WR was a weakness, when your RB is one of your best pass catchers, that says more about your WR than your RB. To his credit Forte is as dangerous, if not more dangerous through the air as he is on the ground. He was a high percentage of the offense because he was possibly our best weapon.

 

I had Forte on my fantasy team last year along with Ray Rice as my starting backfield and they were gold for me most weeks. Although with Forte, there was Barber to vulture TD's which became annoying but, that is one of Forte's weaknesses short yardage, and goal line. Matt's a finesse runner who does better when he can use space, and set up blocks, but bulldozing is not one of his strengths. I think Forte will have a good season, but I don't foresee him being as high a percentage of the offense. We added more weapons both through the air and on the ground. Marshall I think will be Marshall, I think Jeffery will be ok, he has a good situation being opposite Marshall. As the other WR's will benefit from the attention defenses have to pay to Marshall. And Bush I see getting more work than Barber did. I love the combination you have two backs who can break the long one one that is dangerous in the run game and pass game, one who is a bruiser that compliments Forte. I think we'll have enough firepower on offense outside of Forte that he won't have to carry the large percentage of the offense like he has in past seasons. I do think he's a good fantasy back to have especially in a PPR league. I think the Bears will have more of the RB by committee than they have in the past too. That has movement in the league has made it tougher in fantasy at the RB position seems to be less and less feature backs or one back systems. More and more teams may have a primary back but a TD vulture on the roster who takes TD's away from the other guy.

[jason]

I was just going to say, unless Matt breaks a lot of big gainers this season, I expect more of the same because Michael Bush is likely to be the guy that gets the bulk of the carries on the goal line like Marion Barber from last season. It's not a knock against Forte, it's just that we have a bruiser behind him that's fit to crush through linebackers like a bulldozer when he gets a head of steam.

 

My point was that those numbers were in existence last season when the Bears had Barber, a RB who is very much similar to Bush in many ways. If the status quo exists, I see no particular reason why Forte's chances at the EZ won't be close to what they were. And that's where the luck factor plays in. I'm convinced his numbers will improve if he just gets a few good blocks inside the ten, and gets lucky a few times on the breakaway runs.