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Team Trend (one of many) since 2006


adam

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I was thinking today at how the wins this season have been sort of "hollow", either we've played bad teams or teams at the right time (Indy Week 1), etc. So I took a look back until 2006 to see how many winning teams we beat during the season, and I found an interesting trend, we beat either 2 or 3 teams every season, no more, no less, regardless of our record. Check this out:

 

2006 - 2 wins, SEA and NYJ as we go 13-3. Can you believe we won 11 games against teams at 8-8 or worse?

2007 - 2 wins, both vs a 13-3 Green Bay team (we accounted for 2 of their 3 losses as we floundered to a 7-9 record)

2008 - 3 wins, vs IND Week 1, PHI, and MIN. We went 9-7 and missed the playoffs with 2 wins against the 0-16 Lions.

2009 - 2 wins, vs PIT and MIN. We go back to a 7-9 record and miss the playoffs.

2010 - 3 wins, GB, PHI, and NYJ. We go 11-5 and win the division, but lose to GB in Week 17 allowing them into the playoffs, and we know the rest

2011 - 2 wins, ATL Week 1 and DET. We finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs after a 7-3. This sort of makes me sick because I did not realize those were are only 2 "good" wins all year.

2012 - 3 wins, IND Week 1, DAL and MIN. Now at this point we cannot have anymore, but both DAL and MIN could end up 8-8 reducing it to 1 win. Odds are it is between 2-3.

 

To me it seems like a few things are at play, one is strength of schedule. We have been following a bad year with a decent to good year consistently since the Super Bowl run in 2006. We had a tougher schedule the next season and went 7-9. That put us in last, giving us an easier schedule in 2008 when we went 9-7 and finished in 2nd. The following year, we drop back to 7-9 and 3rd place due to the tougher schedule. This sets us up for an easy schedule in 2010 where we go 11-5 and win the division. This sets us up for a tougher schedule resulting in an 8-8 record and another 3rd place finish. Which leads us to this season which we should finish with 9 or 10 wins. I don't recall any team in recent history with that sort of flip flopping every season.

 

So essentially we have been the same team for the last 6-7 seasons, but the level of our opponents has actually determined our record more than anything else. Based on that trend, an aging defense, and many holes to fill in the offseason (probably more than anyone anticipated), I would predict a 6-7 win season next year without some drastic changes and acquisitions this offseason.

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According to Pro-Football reference the Bears are 18-34 against teams that finished the season above .500 during Lovie's tenure as Head Coach. 21-40 if you count this season even though it's not technically finished. Not sure how it stands up next to some of the other coaches in the league, but I imagine it's pretty bad.

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Great analysis Adam. Thanks for sharing.

 

I was thinking today at how the wins this season have been sort of "hollow", either we've played bad teams or teams at the right time (Indy Week 1), etc. So I took a look back until 2006 to see how many winning teams we beat during the season, and I found an interesting trend, we beat either 2 or 3 teams every season, no more, no less, regardless of our record. Check this out:

 

2006 - 2 wins, SEA and NYJ as we go 13-3. Can you believe we won 11 games against teams at 8-8 or worse?

2007 - 2 wins, both vs a 13-3 Green Bay team (we accounted for 2 of their 3 losses as we floundered to a 7-9 record)

2008 - 3 wins, vs IND Week 1, PHI, and MIN. We went 9-7 and missed the playoffs with 2 wins against the 0-16 Lions.

2009 - 2 wins, vs PIT and MIN. We go back to a 7-9 record and miss the playoffs.

2010 - 3 wins, GB, PHI, and NYJ. We go 11-5 and win the division, but lose to GB in Week 17 allowing them into the playoffs, and we know the rest

2011 - 2 wins, ATL Week 1 and DET. We finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs after a 7-3. This sort of makes me sick because I did not realize those were are only 2 "good" wins all year.

2012 - 3 wins, IND Week 1, DAL and MIN. Now at this point we cannot have anymore, but both DAL and MIN could end up 8-8 reducing it to 1 win. Odds are it is between 2-3.

 

To me it seems like a few things are at play, one is strength of schedule. We have been following a bad year with a decent to good year consistently since the Super Bowl run in 2006. We had a tougher schedule the next season and went 7-9. That put us in last, giving us an easier schedule in 2008 when we went 9-7 and finished in 2nd. The following year, we drop back to 7-9 and 3rd place due to the tougher schedule. This sets us up for an easy schedule in 2010 where we go 11-5 and win the division. This sets us up for a tougher schedule resulting in an 8-8 record and another 3rd place finish. Which leads us to this season which we should finish with 9 or 10 wins. I don't recall any team in recent history with that sort of flip flopping every season.

 

So essentially we have been the same team for the last 6-7 seasons, but the level of our opponents has actually determined our record more than anything else. Based on that trend, an aging defense, and many holes to fill in the offseason (probably more than anyone anticipated), I would predict a 6-7 win season next year without some drastic changes and acquisitions this offseason.

 

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I'm not going to take as much of my time as you, so good for you for doing that. How many "good teams" or "teams at the right time" did the Giants beat last year in the regular season, or GB in 2010?

GB beat 4 winning teams, PHI, NYJ, NYG, and CHI, and actually beat NYG and CHI back to back to finish the season and slip into the playoffs.

 

NYG beat only 1 winning team last year (NE), but beat 5x 8-8 teams.

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According to Pro-Football reference the Bears are 18-34 against teams that finished the season above .500 during Lovie's tenure as Head Coach. 21-40 if you count this season even though it's not technically finished. Not sure how it stands up next to some of the other coaches in the league, but I imagine it's pretty bad.

I would assume .500 would be the standard for good teams, but 21-40, that is brutal.

 

Is there some type of stat sorter, or did you to that manually?

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According to Pro-Football reference the Bears are 18-34 against teams that finished the season above .500 during Lovie's tenure as Head Coach. 21-40 if you count this season even though it's not technically finished. Not sure how it stands up next to some of the other coaches in the league, but I imagine it's pretty bad.

How does that compare to league average and to other playoff teams. I'd be curious.

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How does that compare to league average and to other playoff teams. I'd be curious.

Green Bay is 23-25 since 2006, but was 1-6 in 2006. So they are 22-19 since 2007.

 

Pittsburgh is 24-24 since 2006.

 

Indy was 24-21 in the same timeframe.

 

New England was 25-17.

 

Baltimore was 22-27 (which included a 1-7 run in 2007).

 

New Orleans was 21-22 (which includes a 1-6 run this season).

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Green Bay is 23-25 since 2006, but was 1-6 in 2006. So they are 22-19 since 2007.

 

Pittsburgh is 24-24 since 2006.

 

Indy was 24-21 in the same timeframe.

 

New England was 25-17.

 

Baltimore was 22-27 (which included a 1-7 run in 2007).

 

New Orleans was 21-22 (which includes a 1-6 run this season).

 

I looked at some more.

 

The Bengals with Marvin Lewis are 24-54-1 since 2003 (includes this season)

 

The Panthers with John Fox were 19-49 from 2002-2010

 

The Jets with Rex Ryan are 7-16 from 2009-2012 (includes this season)

 

The Texans with Gary Kubiak are 18-33 from 2006-2012 (includes this season)

 

The Falcons with Mike Smith are 16-15 from 2008-2012 (includes this season)

 

The Eagles with Andy Reid are 34-54 from 1999-2012 (includes this season)

 

The Titans/Oilers with Jeff Fisher were 39-61 from 1994-2010

 

Jim Harbaugh is 8-3 against teams above .500 since taking over the San Francisco 49'ers

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I looked at some more.

 

The Bengals with Marvin Lewis are 24-54-1 since 2003 (includes this season)

 

The Panthers with John Fox were 19-49 from 2002-2010

 

The Jets with Rex Ryan are 7-16 from 2009-2012 (includes this season)

 

The Texans with Gary Kubiak are 18-33 from 2006-2012 (includes this season)

 

The Falcons with Mike Smith are 16-15 from 2008-2012 (includes this season)

 

The Eagles with Andy Reid are 34-54 from 1999-2012 (includes this season)

 

The Titans/Oilers with Jeff Fisher were 39-61 from 1994-2010

 

Jim Harbaugh is 8-3 against teams above .500 since taking over the San Francisco 49'ers

 

Some of those numbers are surprising, especially Andy Reid, but it still leads me to believe that strength of schedule has decided the Bears fate more than anything since 2006. Now this may apply to more than just the Bears obviously, but it is interesting nonetheless. The Bears were never worse than 7-9 since 2006 and no better than 13-3, but their records basically correlated with where they finished the year before.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Final numbers for wins against winning teams:

 

2006 - 2 wins

2007 - 2 wins

2008 - 3 wins

2009 - 2 wins

2010 - 3 wins

2011 - 2 wins

2012 - 2 wins (Dallas going 8-8 reduced total by 1)

 

So for 2012, we went 2-6 against winning teams. If we went 3-5 we make the playoffs. Amazing how a few plays in an entire season can impact coaching careers. If the Bears stop Seattle from scoring that last minute TD or hold them to something other than another TD in OT, and we win, who knows where we would be right now.

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So for 2012, we went 2-6 against winning teams. If we went 3-5 we make the playoffs. Amazing how a few plays in an entire season can impact coaching careers. If the Bears stop Seattle from scoring that last minute TD or hold them to something other than another TD in OT, and we win, who knows where we would be right now.

 

Lovie can look in the mirror for blame on the Seattle game. If he weren't so gung ho about shutting the team down when they get even the slightest of leads, this team would have made the playoffs and he would probably still have his job.

 

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Lovie can look in the mirror for blame on the Seattle game. If he weren't so gung ho about shutting the team down when they get even the slightest of leads, this team would have made the playoffs and he would probably still have his job.
Yep, I can't tell you how many times we have let teams back into games by first playing uber conservative on offense which would result in numerous 3 and outs, and then switch to prevent and allow teams to play pitch and catch all the way down the field for a score.

 

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