Collective Mock Draft Analysis

[adam]

So I was bored and decided to take a look at 10 different mock drafts and see where players were being projected. This would give me at least somewhat of a clue for who will be there at #20.

 

Here is what I came up. The following 10 players were selected in the top 19 in every draft, and I have to assume that none will be available at #20 (ESPN Grade):

 

Luke Joeckel, OT (97)

Eric Fisher, OT (96)

Lane Johnson, OT (94)

Chance Warmack, OG (95)

Geno Smith, QB (91)

Ezekiel Ansah, DE (95)

Dee Milliner, CB (95)

Barkevious Mingo, LB (94)

Sharrif Floyd, DT (97)

Jarvis Jones, LB (93)

 

The next 8 were in 80-90% of the mocks, so it is unlikely that they will be there at #20:

 

Dion Jordan, DE (95)

Star Lotulelei, DT

Jonathan Cooper, OG (94)

Tavon Austin, WR (93)

Sheldon Richardson, DT (93)

DJ Fluker, OT (91)

Xavier Rhodes, CB

Bjoern Werner, DE (92)

 

Kenny Vaccaro, S (93) , was the only other player selected in over 50% of the drafts (60%). I found it interesting that at this point, I have listed 19 players, which would be the count before the Bears pick.

 

So the next 7 players were selected in the top 19 of the mocks 50% or less (down to 10%), I believe there is a great chance that these players will be available at #20:

 

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR (90)

Desmond Trufant, CB (91)

Alec Ogletree, LB (94)

Matt Barkley, QB

Tyler Eifert, TE (93)

Sylvester Williams, DT (92)

Menelik Watson, OT

 

The following players appeared in the first round of the mock drafts, but were at #20 or higher and never selected before #20:

 

Arthur Brown, LB

Manti Te'o, LB (89)

Kevin Minter, LB

DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Justin Hunter, WR

Keenan Allen, WR (91)

Robert Woods, WR

Jonathan Banks, CB

Kwann Short, DT (89)

John Jenkins, DT (90)

Jesse Williams, DT

Jonathan Hankins, DT

Jonathan Cyprien, S

Matt Elam, S

Eric Reid, S

Damontre Moore, DE

Margus Hunt, DE

Tank Carradine, DE

Eddie Lacy, RB (89)

Montee Ball, RB

Justin Pugh, OG (89)

 

Now I know there will be some curveballs, reaches, and possibly some trades, but to me, the consensus on some of the earlier picks make me think this will be a fairly accurate assessment.

 

So with that said, and the wall of text done, who out of the last two groups would you accept as a respectable pick at #20?

[Stinger226]

So I was bored and decided to take a look at 10 different mock drafts and see where players were being projected. This would give me at least somewhat of a clue for who will be there at #20.

 

Here is what I came up. The following 10 players were selected in the top 19 in every draft, and I have to assume that none will be available at #20 (ESPN Grade):

 

Luke Joeckel, OT (97)

Eric Fisher, OT (96)

Lane Johnson, OT (94)

Chance Warmack, OG (95)

Geno Smith, QB (91)

Ezekiel Ansah, DE (95)

Dee Milliner, CB (95)

Barkevious Mingo, LB (94)

Sharrif Floyd, DT (97)

Jarvis Jones, LB (93)

 

The next 8 were in 80-90% of the mocks, so it is unlikely that they will be there at #20:

 

Dion Jordan, DE (95)

Star Lotulelei, DT

Jonathan Cooper, OG (94)

Tavon Austin, WR (93)

Sheldon Richardson, DT (93)

DJ Fluker, OT (91)

Xavier Rhodes, CB

Bjoern Werner, DE (92)

 

Kenny Vaccaro, S (93) , was the only other player selected in over 50% of the drafts (60%). I found it interesting that at this point, I have listed 19 players, which would be the count before the Bears pick.

 

So the next 7 players were selected in the top 19 of the mocks 50% or less (down to 10%), I believe there is a great chance that these players will be available at #20:

 

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR (90)

Desmond Trufant, CB (91)

Alec Ogletree, LB (94)

Matt Barkley, QB

Tyler Eifert, TE (93)

Sylvester Williams, DT (92)

Menelik Watson, OT

 

The following players appeared in the first round of the mock drafts, but were at #20 or higher and never selected before #20:

 

Arthur Brown, LB

Manti Te'o, LB (89)

Kevin Minter, LB

DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Justin Hunter, WR

Keenan Allen, WR (91)

Robert Woods, WR

Jonathan Banks, CB

Kwann Short, DT (89)

John Jenkins, DT

Jesse Williams, DT

Jonathan Hankins, DT

Jonathan Cyprien, S

Matt Elam, S

Eric Reid, S

Damontre Moore, DE

Margus Hunt, DE

Tank Carradine, DE

Eddie Lacy, RB (89)

Montee Ball, RB

 

Now I know there will be some curveballs, reaches, and possibly some trades, but to me, the consensus on some of the earlier picks make me think this will be a fairly accurate assessment.

 

So with that said, and the wall of text done, who out of the last two groups would you accept as a respectable pick at #20?

Good job, and I would have to say it will be Trufant, or Ogletree by your research. I also think your 2nd list will have one fall from that group. That could be the pick.

[adam]

Good job, and I would have to say it will be Trufant, or Ogletree by your research. I also think your 2nd list will have one fall from that group. That could be the pick.

I agree, those two stood out. I was surprised that Cooper, Fluker, and Austin were selected so many times in the top 19.

[madlithuanian]

Well presented.

 

Although I still have no idea!

 

So I was bored and decided to take a look at 10 different mock drafts and see where players were being projected. This would give me at least somewhat of a clue for who will be there at #20.

 

Here is what I came up. The following 10 players were selected in the top 19 in every draft, and I have to assume that none will be available at #20 (ESPN Grade):

 

Luke Joeckel, OT (97)

Eric Fisher, OT (96)

Lane Johnson, OT (94)

Chance Warmack, OG (95)

Geno Smith, QB (91)

Ezekiel Ansah, DE (95)

Dee Milliner, CB (95)

Barkevious Mingo, LB (94)

Sharrif Floyd, DT (97)

Jarvis Jones, LB (93)

 

The next 8 were in 80-90% of the mocks, so it is unlikely that they will be there at #20:

 

Dion Jordan, DE (95)

Star Lotulelei, DT

Jonathan Cooper, OG (94)

Tavon Austin, WR (93)

Sheldon Richardson, DT (93)

DJ Fluker, OT (91)

Xavier Rhodes, CB

Bjoern Werner, DE (92)

 

Kenny Vaccaro, S (93) , was the only other player selected in over 50% of the drafts (60%). I found it interesting that at this point, I have listed 19 players, which would be the count before the Bears pick.

 

So the next 7 players were selected in the top 19 of the mocks 50% or less (down to 10%), I believe there is a great chance that these players will be available at #20:

 

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR (90)

Desmond Trufant, CB (91)

Alec Ogletree, LB (94)

Matt Barkley, QB

Tyler Eifert, TE (93)

Sylvester Williams, DT (92)

Menelik Watson, OT

 

The following players appeared in the first round of the mock drafts, but were at #20 or higher and never selected before #20:

 

Arthur Brown, LB

Manti Te'o, LB (89)

Kevin Minter, LB

DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Justin Hunter, WR

Keenan Allen, WR (91)

Robert Woods, WR

Jonathan Banks, CB

Kwann Short, DT (89)

John Jenkins, DT (90)

Jesse Williams, DT

Jonathan Hankins, DT

Jonathan Cyprien, S

Matt Elam, S

Eric Reid, S

Damontre Moore, DE

Margus Hunt, DE

Tank Carradine, DE

Eddie Lacy, RB (89)

Montee Ball, RB

Justin Pugh, OG (89)

 

Now I know there will be some curveballs, reaches, and possibly some trades, but to me, the consensus on some of the earlier picks make me think this will be a fairly accurate assessment.

 

So with that said, and the wall of text done, who out of the last two groups would you accept as a respectable pick at #20?

 

[scs787]

So I was bored and decided to take a look at 10 different mock drafts and see where players were being projected. This would give me at least somewhat of a clue for who will be there at #20.

 

Here is what I came up. The following 10 players were selected in the top 19 in every draft, and I have to assume that none will be available at #20 (ESPN Grade):

 

Luke Joeckel, OT (97)

Eric Fisher, OT (96)

Lane Johnson, OT (94)

Chance Warmack, OG (95)

Geno Smith, QB (91)

Ezekiel Ansah, DE (95)

Dee Milliner, CB (95)

Barkevious Mingo, LB (94)

Sharrif Floyd, DT (97)

Jarvis Jones, LB (93)

 

The next 8 were in 80-90% of the mocks, so it is unlikely that they will be there at #20:

 

Dion Jordan, DE (95)

Star Lotulelei, DT

Jonathan Cooper, OG (94)

Tavon Austin, WR (93)

Sheldon Richardson, DT (93)

DJ Fluker, OT (91)

Xavier Rhodes, CB

Bjoern Werner, DE (92)

 

Kenny Vaccaro, S (93) , was the only other player selected in over 50% of the drafts (60%). I found it interesting that at this point, I have listed 19 players, which would be the count before the Bears pick.

 

So the next 7 players were selected in the top 19 of the mocks 50% or less (down to 10%), I believe there is a great chance that these players will be available at #20:

 

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR (90)

Desmond Trufant, CB (91)

Alec Ogletree, LB (94)

Matt Barkley, QB

Tyler Eifert, TE (93)

Sylvester Williams, DT (92)

Menelik Watson, OT

 

The following players appeared in the first round of the mock drafts, but were at #20 or higher and never selected before #20:

 

Arthur Brown, LB

Manti Te'o, LB (89)

Kevin Minter, LB

DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Justin Hunter, WR

Keenan Allen, WR (91)

Robert Woods, WR

Jonathan Banks, CB

Kwann Short, DT (89)

John Jenkins, DT (90)

Jesse Williams, DT

Jonathan Hankins, DT

Jonathan Cyprien, S

Matt Elam, S

Eric Reid, S

Damontre Moore, DE

Margus Hunt, DE

Tank Carradine, DE

Eddie Lacy, RB (89)

Montee Ball, RB

Justin Pugh, OG (89)

 

Now I know there will be some curveballs, reaches, and possibly some trades, but to me, the consensus on some of the earlier picks make me think this will be a fairly accurate assessment.

 

So with that said, and the wall of text done, who out of the last two groups would you accept as a respectable pick at #20?

 

 

Honestly I'd be happy with a good portion of those guys in the last 2 lists. The Bears can go so many different ways that it's really hard to get a read on what we need the most.

 

I'd be content with any of the following from the last 2 lists

 

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR (90)

Desmond Trufant, CB (91)

Alec Ogletree, LB (94)

Tyler Eifert, TE (93)

Sylvester Williams, DT (92)

Menelik Watson, OT

 

Arthur Brown, LB

DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Justin Hunter, WR

Keenan Allen, WR (91)

Robert Woods, WR

Jonathan Banks, CB

Kwann Short, DT (89)

John Jenkins, DT (90)

Jesse Williams, DT

Jonathan Hankins, DT

 

[AZ54]

First choice: Ogletree

Second choice: Trufant

[Mongo3451]

First choice: Ogletree

Second choice: Trufant

 

If an OL doesn't fall, second that.

[adam]

There are a bunch of DT's on the list. Hopefully that will make Emery look elsewhere. Patterson at #20 feels a little early for me, especially since he is not a slot WR.

[Stinger226]

There are a bunch of DT's on the list. Hopefully that will make Emery look elsewhere. Patterson at #20 feels a little early for me, especially since he is not a slot WR.

the only WR I see us taking in round 1 would be Austin

[adam]

the only WR I see us taking in round 1 would be Austin

Patterson would be an interesting pick, but I would think he would be better on the outside. With Marshall and Jeffery, I still think Ogletree and Trufant would be best according to this analysis.

[Stinger226]

Patterson would be an interesting pick, but I would think he would be better on the outside. With Marshall and Jeffery, I still think Ogletree and Trufant would be best according to this analysis.

Something interesting concerning Ogletree. I just read that he was suspended the first 4 games of 2012, which means his stats were all done in 8 games. I have moved from Brown/lb to routing for Olgetree, he was a stud. I liked Brown because he is consider a natural born leader, which I thought we needed, but Olgetree is too good to pass up, if we get the chance.

[AZ54]

Something interesting concerning Ogletree. I just read that he was suspended the first 4 games of 2012, which means his stats were all done in 8 games. I have moved from Brown/lb to routing for Olgetree, he was a stud. I liked Brown because he is consider a natural born leader, which I thought we needed, but Olgetree is too good to pass up, if we get the chance.

 

Of course the downside to that is after getting punished he didn't learn his lesson and got in trouble with the police. Brown is the safe choice but Ogletree has the higher ceiling IMO. I prefer Ogletree and if we draft him I expect Lance Briggs to pull him to the side and say "let me tell you a story about a Lamborghini".

[adam]

I really hope there are some teams moving up to get their QB. Funny things happen near the end of the first because teams don't want to lose out early on the 2nd day of draft, so they move up.

[Ed Hochuli 3:16]

If Star Lotulelei is somehow there at 20 and Cooper and Warmack are not, he has to be the pick.

[adam]

If Star Lotulelei is somehow there at 20 and Cooper and Warmack are not, he has to be the pick.

Since there are a bunch of DE/DT's rated high this year, one or two of them seem like the most likely to drop.

[AZ54]

I really hope there are some teams moving up to get their QB. Funny things happen near the end of the first because teams don't want to lose out early on the 2nd day of draft, so they move up.

 

Me too but I wonder if that won't happen behind our pick. 20 just might be a bit early to cash in (trade down) on all the action. Plus this is that type of draft with a weak top 10 and a lot of balance across the top 40 picks talent wise where most teams feel they can trade down and do better. That means.... who really wants to trade up?

[adam]

Me too but I wonder if that won't happen behind our pick. 20 just might be a bit early to cash in (trade down) on all the action. Plus this is that type of draft with a weak top 10 and a lot of balance across the top 40 picks talent wise where most teams feel they can trade down and do better. That means.... who really wants to trade up?

All teams have "their" guy, someone they like more than others, or may have a huge glaring need to fill. A team wanting to move up to 20 may be a team in the early 2nd who knows X player will not last the next 10-15 picks. I can see the Bills doing that to draft a QB since they wouldn't want to spend their 1st pick on one.

[AZ54]

All teams have "their" guy, someone they like more than others, or may have a huge glaring need to fill. A team wanting to move up to 20 may be a team in the early 2nd who knows X player will not last the next 10-15 picks. I can see the Bills doing that to draft a QB since they wouldn't want to spend their 1st pick on one.

 

 

On this I agree and #20 makes a lot of sense for teams to move up out of the second to get their QB. But there is that issue of will they feel like taking that risk and might it be better to trade back in the first round (i.e. AZ drop back from 7 to 12) and grab the QB. Gotta figure in the usual GMs on the hot seat versus GMs that are new and have time.

[balta1701-A]

On this I agree and #20 makes a lot of sense for teams to move up out of the second to get their QB. But there is that issue of will they feel like taking that risk and might it be better to trade back in the first round (i.e. AZ drop back from 7 to 12) and grab the QB. Gotta figure in the usual GMs on the hot seat versus GMs that are new and have time.

If one or more of the QB's are taken before pick 20, that just means even more of the D-Line/O-Line/other guys will be available at 20.

[adam]

If one or more of the QB's are taken before pick 20, that just means even more of the D-Line/O-Line/other guys will be available at 20.

That too. This draft is going to be interesting. If teams start to move up to get certain guys, others are going to drop.

[bowlingtwig]

That too. This draft is going to be interesting. If teams start to move up to get certain guys, others are going to drop.

I agree. I'm hoping to see a run on skill positions go in 1st. Meaning QBs, WRs and RBs.