adam Posted April 8, 2013 Report Share Posted April 8, 2013 Another cool site with a decent article on QB valuation: http://overthecap.com/value-pricing-the-nfl-qb/ They said Cutler under-performed and is worth between $8-$9 million a year. To me that seems about right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scs787 Posted April 8, 2013 Report Share Posted April 8, 2013 That seems about right to me as well but I really believe his play will elevate a ton next year and you'll see that number jump significantly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackerDog Posted April 8, 2013 Report Share Posted April 8, 2013 No clue, I leave that to the professionals in the organization to figure out. All I know is he's the first QB I've seen in a Bears uniform in my lifetime that can do it all. He hasn't been consistent for a lot of reasons, some of which are on Jay and others that are on the team. His punk attitude is a big minus. The skills are certainly there and with an improved line (I HOPE) and a real offense (I HOPE) we should see Jay be all that he can be... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 8, 2013 Report Share Posted April 8, 2013 OR if Trestman really is a QB genius, maybe he brings in a player and molds him into something even better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2013 We will certainly find out, it going to be an interesting season. We were just 10-6, but many felt we left a few games on the field and should've been better. With the offseason acquisitions (and with the subtraction of Davis alone) we should be better going into this season. Also, from a coaching standpoint, we should be light years better on offense and probably a little worse on defense (figuring in the loss of Lovie, Marinelli, and Urlacher). Mel Tucker has his work cut out for him, but man, wouldn't you love taking over for a team that has Peppers, Melton, Briggs, Tillman, and Jennings returning, and with guys like Anderson and Williams hungry to prove themselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted April 8, 2013 Report Share Posted April 8, 2013 That seems about right to me as well but I really believe his play will elevate a ton next year and you'll see that number jump significantly I believe he is making 9 mil right now and that is probably what he is worth, but totally agree with you on he will a lot better this year and ends up in the 15 mil at the end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockren Posted April 9, 2013 Report Share Posted April 9, 2013 Another cool site with a decent article on QB valuation: http://overthecap.com/value-pricing-the-nfl-qb/ They said Cutler under-performed and is worth between $8-$9 million a year. To me that seems about right. No way Cutler would sign a deal worth 5yr/40mil or 5yr/45mil. To the Bears....he's worth closer to 5yr/75 mil right now IMO---the Bears are a really bad football team without him. 40-45 mil guaranteed maybe.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted April 10, 2013 Report Share Posted April 10, 2013 No way Cutler would sign a deal worth 5yr/40mil or 5yr/45mil. To the Bears....he's worth closer to 5yr/75 mil right now IMO---the Bears are a really bad football team without him. 40-45 mil guaranteed maybe.... If he doesnt play well this year, i dont think we will be offering the 15 mil a year deal. If he plays well it will be at least 15 mi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balta1701-A Posted April 10, 2013 Report Share Posted April 10, 2013 If he doesnt play well this year, i dont think we will be offering the 15 mil a year deal. If he plays well it will be at least 15 mi. If he doesn't play well, I think he'll be the most highly paid backup in the league next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockren Posted April 10, 2013 Report Share Posted April 10, 2013 If he doesn't play well, I think he'll be the most highly paid backup in the league next year. I feel that a bold prediction, but fair. I still think another team will give him a starting gig while they groom his replacement at the very least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2013 Taking the name out of the equation, what would a QB who averages about 3,500 yards and 23-18 TD-INT per 16 games worth? Those averages would put that QB between 14-18th in the league. The market seems to be putting the Top 5 QB's over $20 million a year, with Top 10 QB's getting over $15 (Romo got over $17). Top 15 QB's should be around $12-15. So to me, unless Cutler throws for over 4,000 with about 30 TD's and a deep playoff run, I can't see him getting anything over $15, and to me something around 5 years for $12-$14 per year seems about right. This would be a slight increase over his $10 million per year contract he just had. Also, this is assuming Cutler becomes Trestman's guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingtwig Posted April 10, 2013 Report Share Posted April 10, 2013 Taking the name out of the equation, what would a QB who averages about 3,500 yards and 23-18 TD-INT per 16 games worth? Those averages would put that QB between 14-18th in the league. The market seems to be putting the Top 5 QB's over $20 million a year, with Top 10 QB's getting over $15 (Romo got over $17). Top 15 QB's should be around $12-15. So to me, unless Cutler throws for over 4,000 with about 30 TD's and a deep playoff run, I can't see him getting anything over $15, and to me something around 5 years for $12-$14 per year seems about right. This would be a slight increase over his $10 million per year contract he just had. Also, this is assuming Cutler becomes Trestman's guy. I'm looking for cutler to at least break franchise record for yds of 3,838 and also around 27-30 scores this yr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2013 I'm looking for cutler to at least break franchise record for yds of 3,838 and also around 27-30 scores this yr It is hard to see him signed to a long term deal if does anything less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selection7 Posted April 11, 2013 Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 After what Romo got, Cutler could be worth darned near anything. There's no explaining it. Cutler's worth whatever the Bears feel like paying him, ultimately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted April 11, 2013 Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 After what Romo got, Cutler could be worth darned near anything. There's no explaining it. Cutler's worth whatever the Bears feel like paying him, ultimately. Romo's ridiculous agreement doesn't help for sure. But, the Bears need to be careful and not do as the Ravens did with Flacco this last year. I think they (Balt) weren't sure how the season was going to play out, especially when they hit the slump about mid-season. We saw what happened and the price they had to pay (literally) for Flacco's continued service. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingtwig Posted April 11, 2013 Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 Romo's ridiculous agreement doesn't help for sure. But, the Bears need to be careful and not do as the Ravens did with Flacco this last year. I think they (Balt) weren't sure how the season was going to play out, especially when they hit the slump about mid-season. We saw what happened and the price they had to pay (literally) for Flacco's continued service. Big difference though in regards to us(cutler) and ravens and cowboys situations. Its all about leverage. Promo actually has good stats. Had big cap # plus team had to open up cap space. Best way for them to do that was the extension. They couldn't release him either cuz of the cap hit and cowboys couldn't franchise him due to certain language in his old contract. Plus this draft is weak at qb class. In belt imagine the out cry if they don't extend him after the postseason he just had. Its all about what have u done for me lately and he was SB MVP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted April 11, 2013 Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 Big difference though in regards to us(cutler) and ravens and cowboys situations. Its all about leverage. Promo actually has good stats. Had big cap # plus team had to open up cap space. Best way for them to do that was the extension. They couldn't release him either cuz of the cap hit and cowboys couldn't franchise him due to certain language in his old contract. Plus this draft is weak at qb class. In belt imagine the out cry if they don't extend him after the postseason he just had. Its all about what have u done for me lately and he was SB MVP. Here's a hypothetical since Cutler's situation is similar to Flacco's. What is Cutler worth if he doesn't extend and wins a SB in the same fashion as Flacco? I for one think he is as talented, but Flacco has a more solid track record in the playoffs. So, I'm thinking Cutler would be a 18m/yr QB if he's SB MVP. If he's good and takes us to the playoffs and wins a game 15m. If he's the same QB we've had for the last 3 years 10-12m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingtwig Posted April 11, 2013 Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 Here's a hypothetical since Cutler's situation is similar to Flacco's. What is Cutler worth if he doesn't extend and wins a SB in the same fashion as Flacco? I for one think he is as talented, but Flacco has a more solid track record in the playoffs. So, I'm thinking Cutler would be a 18m/yr QB if he's SB MVP. If he's good and takes us to the playoffs and wins a game 15m. If he's the same QB we've had for the last 3 years 10-12m. Another difference is cutler will be 30 this yr compared to flacco just turned 28. I'm guessing your not far off your assessment but can't see to many players going on that same run flacco did in playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 Here's a hypothetical since Cutler's situation is similar to Flacco's. What is Cutler worth if he doesn't extend and wins a SB in the same fashion as Flacco? I for one think he is as talented, but Flacco has a more solid track record in the playoffs. So, I'm thinking Cutler would be a 18m/yr QB if he's SB MVP. If he's good and takes us to the playoffs and wins a game 15m. If he's the same QB we've had for the last 3 years 10-12m. Here is the thing, if Trestman does make Cutler into a Pro Bowl caliber QB and the Bears make a deep playoff run, you have to assume that they would trust him to only get better in the same system. With the QB Franchise Tag at almost $15 million, that would seem to be the starting point. Another option is to only give him a 2-3 yr deal worth around $15/yr, that way there is not too much dead money in the deal. I still say a club friendly deal around $14 would be great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted April 11, 2013 Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 Big difference though in regards to us(cutler) and ravens and cowboys situations. Its all about leverage. Promo actually has good stats. Had big cap # plus team had to open up cap space. Best way for them to do that was the extension. They couldn't release him either cuz of the cap hit and cowboys couldn't franchise him due to certain language in his old contract. Plus this draft is weak at qb class. In belt imagine the out cry if they don't extend him after the postseason he just had. Its all about what have u done for me lately and he was SB MVP. I don't care what you say, Romo doesn't deserve what he's getting. He's way too inconsistent for that type of money. All the contractual language and cap hit issues make sense though. And with Flacco, the point I'm making is had Baltimore negotiated with him midway through the season (rather than at the end) they would have probably spent less. But, as I mentioned they may not have because their season wasn't looking so good at about midway. They probably thought they could wait and determine whether it would be worth their while to sign him on or franchise him; depending on how the season progressed. With Cutler, and as a few have suggested, the Bears would probably be better of trying to get Cutler resigned before the season is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted April 11, 2013 Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 I don't care what you say, Romo doesn't deserve what he's getting. He's way too inconsistent for that type of money. All the contractual language and cap hit issues make sense though. And with Flacco, the point I'm making is had Baltimore negotiated with him midway through the season (rather than at the end) they would have probably spent less. But, as I mentioned they may not have because their season wasn't looking so good at about midway. They probably thought they could wait and determine whether it would be worth their while to sign him on or franchise him; depending on how the season progressed. With Cutler, and as a few have suggested, the Bears would probably be better of trying to get Cutler resigned before the season is over. The Flacco negotiation was done before the season started and both sides agreed to wait until after the season. Of Flacco didn't want to accept their preseason offer, mid season would be rejected as well. He simply wanted more, gambled and won big time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackerDog Posted April 11, 2013 Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 With Cutler, and as a few have suggested, the Bears would probably be better of trying to get Cutler resigned before the season is over. Trestman will size Cutler up in camp and the wheels will start moving then if there's a reason for them to move. I'm sure he's already watched dozens of games on tape. If Trestman is what we all hope he is, he won't need actual game performances in his system to make the call. And as for all this "what is cutler worth" stuff... Why does anyone here care? The guy will make what market says he should make, no more no less. As fans we should be focused on the games, the wins, the fun... Leave the business bullshit to the team execs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingtwig Posted April 11, 2013 Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 I don't care what you say, Romo doesn't deserve what he's getting. He's way too inconsistent for that type of money. All the contractual language and cap hit issues make sense though. And with Flacco, the point I'm making is had Baltimore negotiated with him midway through the season (rather than at the end) they would have probably spent less. But, as I mentioned they may not have because their season wasn't looking so good at about midway. They probably thought they could wait and determine whether it would be worth their while to sign him on or franchise him; depending on how the season progressed. With Cutler, and as a few have suggested, the Bears would probably be better of trying to get Cutler resigned before the season is over. I haven't at all said either deserves the deal they got. They most certainly do not. I was only simply pointing out that both players had all the leverage thus almost forcing said teams to give the players what they wanted. And in regards to flacco the team negotiated with him before the 2012 season began. Flacco didn't like deal that was offered. Flacco decided to end negotiations and bet on himself. His bet paid off. In negotiations its all about leverage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted April 11, 2013 Report Share Posted April 11, 2013 Trestman will size Cutler up in camp and the wheels will start moving then if there's a reason for them to move. I'm sure he's already watched dozens of games on tape. If Trestman is what we all hope he is, he won't need actual game performances in his system to make the call. And as for all this "what is cutler worth" stuff... Why does anyone here care? The guy will make what market says he should make, no more no less. As fans we should be focused on the games, the wins, the fun... Leave the business bullshit to the team execs. I think (philosophically at least) what this discussion is about is 'what if' Cutler doesn't work out despite all of these adds in the last two years...in what essentially is to cater to his ability? The first question is should we (as fans and as a team) continue with him if he falters? Should we then prepare ourselves 'post-Cutler'? On the other hand, if he comes out gangbusters, how do 'we' deal with that? Is it because of the new regime/scheme? Is it because he's in a contract year? All things that need to be considered for not just management but we as fans to be able to swallow whatever number appears on his new contract. A lot of factors will need to be considered another of which is his age. If he doesn't 'go Flacco' on us but still gets the team to the playoffs does he deserve a long term high dollar contract? If the team does it are we prepared to live with it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2013 I think (philosophically at least) what this discussion is about is 'what if' Cutler doesn't work out despite all of these adds in the last two years...in what essentially is to cater to his ability? The first question is should we (as fans and as a team) continue with him if he falters? Should we then prepare ourselves 'post-Cutler'? On the other hand, if he comes out gangbusters, how do 'we' deal with that? Is it because of the new regime/scheme? Is it because he's in a contract year? All things that need to be considered for not just management but we as fans to be able to swallow whatever number appears on his new contract. A lot of factors will need to be considered another of which is his age. If he doesn't 'go Flacco' on us but still gets the team to the playoffs does he deserve a long term high dollar contract? If the team does it are we prepared to live with it? I think the decision will be pretty simple, if Cutler produces, and Trestman trusts him, he will be extended/re-signed. If he continues at his current level with no improvement, he will not be re-signed. For a contract, based on the market value (not just one good year taken into account), his contract would range from about $12 mil to about $18 mil (Romo money). I can't see him making more than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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