Cutler to Marshall Targets

[adam]

I am getting sick of the media mentioning how many targets Marshall had last year, and how Cutler was zeroing in on him compared to other QB's. So what about Stafford to Johnson or Luck to Wayne, who had as many targets as Marshall? I rarely hear those two QB's mentioned. Andre Johnson, AJ Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Stevie Johnson, and Victor Cruz all had a high percentage of their teams targets, yet none of them seem to have the negative stigma put on them about being targeted too much.

 

An interesting note is that Marshall led the league in targets in 2007 and 2008, yet I don't remember stories about him being targeted too much by Cutler back then.

 

To me, I could care less about how many times he was targeted if it resulted in a catch, which it did. Compare that to targets of Davis who seemed to drop or tip more to the other team than catch the ball. Also, if Marshall is the first option, and he is open, why would you not pass it to him?

['TD']

....because Cutler did target him too much.

 

I took out the attempts from Cutler and targets for Marshall from the Houston game and the game Cutler missed. Cutler targeted Marshall 42% of the time. While 2007 was high at 36%, 2008 was more along the lines as those below at 29%.

 

 

WR's you listed and % targeted by their respective QB's:

 

Reggie Wayne: 31%

Calvin Johnson: 28%

Victor Cruz: 27%

Andre Johnson: 30%

A.J. Green: 31%

Larry Fitgerald: 26%

Stevie Johnson: 30%

 

Jay Cutler targeted Marshall over 1/3rd more, than any of the WR and QB combos listed last year.

[AZ54]

He focused on him too much. I still remember him throwing over a wide-open at the 10 yard line to force a pass to Marshall who was in triple coverage. Would Rodriguez have scored? No, but he could have had the first down.

[Stinger226]

He focused on him too much. I still remember him throwing over a wide-open at the 10 yard line to force a pass to Marshall who was in triple coverage. Would Rodriguez have scored? No, but he could have had the first down.

The problem was he didnt have anybody else he could trust. Bennett,Hester,Davis, they all sucked last year.

[bowlingtwig]

The problem was he didnt have anybody else he could trust. Bennett,Hester,Davis, they all sucked last year.

This 100%. We need a compliment to Marshall. We were hoping Davis could be last yr but pissed that opportunity away and then other injuries derailed Bennett and Jeffrey. Here's hoping that martellus can step up and be that guy that cutler can count on as well

[jason]

The problem was he didnt have anybody else he could trust. Bennett,Hester,Davis, they all sucked last year.

 

How do you figure? Bennett had nearly the exact same receiving percentage that Marshall did, except he was used (i.e. targeted) FAR, FAR less. Hester wasn't far behind.

 

Marshall - 192 targets, 118 catches, 61.5% receiving percentage

Bennett - 49 targets, 29 catches, 59.2% receiving percentage

Hester - 40 targets, 23 catches, 57.5% receiving percentage

Jeffery - 48 targets, 24 catches, 50.0% receiving percentage

Davis - 44 targets, 19 catches, 43.2% receiving percentage

 

And I'm sure if Cutler didn't throw over their wide open heads a few times to a double/triple teamed Marshall, their percentages would be higher. Come to think of it, so would Marshall's. Win-win for the Bears. Hell, maybe even Davis would have been better...doubtful, but possible.

[killakrzydav]

Throw it to whose open. I think the confidence in the WRs is a two way street. The more they see the ball being caught by themselves, the more confidence Cutler and unnamed receiver will have.

[Stinger226]

How do you figure? Bennett had nearly the exact same receiving percentage that Marshall did, except he was used (i.e. targeted) FAR, FAR less. Hester wasn't far behind.

 

Marshall - 192 targets, 118 catches, 61.5% receiving percentage

Bennett - 49 targets, 29 catches, 59.2% receiving percentage

Hester - 40 targets, 23 catches, 57.5% receiving percentage

Jeffery - 48 targets, 24 catches, 50.0% receiving percentage

Davis - 44 targets, 19 catches, 43.2% receiving percentage

 

And I'm sure if Cutler didn't throw over their wide open heads a few times to a double/triple teamed Marshall, their percentages would be higher. Come to think of it, so would Marshall's. Win-win for the Bears. Hell, maybe even Davis would have been better...doubtful, but possible.

I am not talking about receiving percentage, 192 targets for Marshall, 181 to everyone else. They all were inconsistent last year. He threw to Marshall because he trusted him more, he would go up and fight for balls.

[jason]

I am not talking about receiving percentage, 192 targets for Marshall, 181 to everyone else. They all were inconsistent last year. He threw to Marshall because he trusted him more, he would go up and fight for balls.

 

I don't see how you can point to targets as a sign of WR inconsistency. Inconsistency stems from receiving percentage. It may have to do with Cutler's trust in them, but that has more to do with Cutler than it has to do with them. They cannot catch the ball if they are not thrown the ball. I don't have a "got open percentage," but the receiving percentage says that the targets are more Cutler's fault than anyone else. Bennett, for instance, has always had great hands. If he had seen the ball more, maybe Cutler's confidence in him grows, maybe Bennett has more catches, a better percentage, and Marshall's burden is lessened. The first domino must fall for the entire string of dominoes to become involved.

[adam]

So would the Bears have been better off throwing to someone else like Davis? No, so the amount or percentage of targets to Marshall isn't as bad as it seems. To a degree the amount of targets were justified.

 

[jason]

So would the Bears have been better off throwing to someone else like Davis? No, so the amount or percentage of targets to Marshall isn't as bad as it seems. To a degree the amount of targets were justified.

 

You're right. To a degree. Obviously they're not going to take away 20% of Marshall's targets and feed them to Davis. The return on investment would plummet. If, however, they simply took 1% away and gave that to Davis, and maybe 5% to Bennett, then it's entirely logical the following would have happened (in relative order):

1. Bennett would have had more touches, and played better. This is purely about percentages since he had just about the same % as Marshall.

2. Davis would have had more touches, and possibly played better. This is purely about confidence.

3. Marshall would have seen fewer double and triple teams.

4. Cutler would have had a better completion percentage overall (i.e. not ignoring 1 & 2, and benefiting from a non-blanketed Marshall).

5. The Bears offense would have been better.

 

This ain't rocket science.

[adam]

You're right. To a degree. Obviously they're not going to take away 20% of Marshall's targets and feed them to Davis. The return on investment would plummet. If, however, they simply took 1% away and gave that to Davis, and maybe 5% to Bennett, then it's entirely logical the following would have happened (in relative order):

1. Bennett would have had more touches, and played better. This is purely about percentages since he had just about the same % as Marshall.

2. Davis would have had more touches, and possibly played better. This is purely about confidence.

3. Marshall would have seen fewer double and triple teams.

4. Cutler would have had a better completion percentage overall (i.e. not ignoring 1 & 2, and benefiting from a non-blanketed Marshall).

5. The Bears offense would have been better.

 

This ain't rocket science.

1. Bennett's production was almost exactly the same before Marshall arrived, and his per game averages have been very steady throughout his career. So throwing to him would give you his averages vs. Marshall's where Bennett's would have been worse.

2. No way, Davis had more targets than he ever had and showed his ceiling. Throwing to him any more than what they did would've been worse than the extra throws to Marshall.

3. This is true, but the other guys didn't step up enough to threaten the other team to prevent this. Also, throwing to Marshall less would not have necessarily reduced the number of double teams, especially if our guys were not making plays. They would continue to make someone else beat them. Which to me makes Marshall's numbers even that much more impressive.

4. Based on the reception percentages, throwing to anyone other than Marshall would've reduced Cutler's completion percentage.

5. Pure speculation. We would like to think this, but the numbers actually show the opposite. So only balanced teams are successful, or spreading the ball around just for the sake of averages is better than using your go to guy?

 

Don't get me wrong, I thought he was targeted too much, but I didn't think it was as negative of a trend as the media made it out to be. We have enough data before Marshall arrived that showed what Bennett, Hester, and Davis were capable of. Knox and Roy freakin' Williams were the leading WR's in 2011. So if Bennett, Hester, and Davis couldn't break through that year, then I can't imagine that they ever will.

[adam]

....because Cutler did target him too much.

 

I took out the attempts from Cutler and targets for Marshall from the Houston game and the game Cutler missed. Cutler targeted Marshall 42% of the time. While 2007 was high at 36%, 2008 was more along the lines as those below at 29%.

 

 

WR's you listed and % targeted by their respective QB's:

 

Reggie Wayne: 31%

Calvin Johnson: 28%

Victor Cruz: 27%

Andre Johnson: 30%

A.J. Green: 31%

Larry Fitgerald: 26%

Stevie Johnson: 30%

 

Jay Cutler targeted Marshall over 1/3rd more, than any of the WR and QB combos listed last year.

 

Due to the low amount of attempts for Cutler, that 11% only equals 3 targets per game extra to Marshall over an entire season.

[Mongo3451]

Due to the low amount of attempts for Cutler, that 11% only equals 3 targets per game extra to Marshall over an entire season.

Something we dont know, that I guarantee Trestman knows is, how many times Cutler forced to Marshall. And how many times he looked at Marshall first and threw late to the others, causing defended passes.

 

[adam]

Something we dont know, that I guarantee Trestman knows is, how many times Cutler forced to Marshall. And how many times he looked at Marshall first and threw late to the others, causing defended passes.

I would hope so. Cutler, as well as the entire offense is going to be held accountable for their actions more than ever before.

[jason]

1. Bennett's production was almost exactly the same before Marshall arrived, and his per game averages have been very steady throughout his career. So throwing to him would give you his averages vs. Marshall's where Bennett's would have been worse.

2. No way, Davis had more targets than he ever had and showed his ceiling. Throwing to him any more than what they did would've been worse than the extra throws to Marshall.

3. This is true, but the other guys didn't step up enough to threaten the other team to prevent this. Also, throwing to Marshall less would not have necessarily reduced the number of double teams, especially if our guys were not making plays. They would continue to make someone else beat them. Which to me makes Marshall's numbers even that much more impressive.

4. Based on the reception percentages, throwing to anyone other than Marshall would've reduced Cutler's completion percentage.

5. Pure speculation. We would like to think this, but the numbers actually show the opposite. So only balanced teams are successful, or spreading the ball around just for the sake of averages is better than using your go to guy?

 

Don't get me wrong, I thought he was targeted too much, but I didn't think it was as negative of a trend as the media made it out to be. We have enough data before Marshall arrived that showed what Bennett, Hester, and Davis were capable of. Knox and Roy freakin' Williams were the leading WR's in 2011. So if Bennett, Hester, and Davis couldn't break through that year, then I can't imagine that they ever will.

 

1. I contend that Bennett was open more often than he was targeted, and his percentage could have increased if he were thrown to when he were open, instead of the forced throw to Marshall.

2. Perhaps, which is why I only allocated a very small change to targets for Davis.

3. Imagine you're playing pickup basketball, and there is a guy on the other team that four of your five opponents absolutely hate (i.e. Jordan freeze out in the all star game). You simply don't guard him as closely because you know he's not getting the ball. I think this happened last year because the opponents knew Cutler was going to throw to Marshall.

4. Based on pure percentages, you are right. But in this fictitious world of reallocating targets, it's pretty easy to remember more than one play where someone was open when Cutler threw it to a bracketed Marshall. In this case, it stands to reason that an NFL player, particularly someone with good hands like Bennett, would have made an open catch where Marshall could not make a closely defended catch. You can't really use the current percentages in this alternate scenario because they would obviously change. Hence, Cutler's completion percentage goes up.

5. It is speculation, but that doesn't mean it's not true. Teams that are more balanced have a better chance of taxing the opposing defense. This is just common sense. And if the opponents viewed Bennett, Jeffery, or anyone else as a greater threat, they would have had to devote less attention to Marshall. You don't spread it around for the sake of just spreading it around (i.e. your #9 hitter), but it makes more sense to let your #2 guy bat a bit more when the #1 guy has handcuffs on.

 

As for the other years, I don't think that's a fair assessment. For one, last year we had a mental midget running the offense, and the OL was horrible. Cutler rarely had time to get to the second read. I make no arguments about Marshall being the first read. He should be. But when you look up, see him covered, and then realize as a QB you better run for your life, there isn't a lot of time to get to #2. Same goes for the previous several years. And at no time, regardless of what Bennett or Hester or Knox did/do, are they going to be #1s, regardless of how mistaken Lovie Smith was. All three are, at best, complimentary. Therefore, we're back to the scenario of an offense having reads, and the QB making those reads, and all of those complimentary guys are not going to be #1 reads. No problem normally, but when you can't get to a second read because your OL falls apart, it affects overall numbers. For the record, if Bushrod, Slauson, and Long pan out, I expect Cutler to have a freaking monster year. This offense's problem has been OL the entire time Cutler has been here. Period.

 

[jason]

Due to the low amount of attempts for Cutler, that 11% only equals 3 targets per game extra to Marshall over an entire season.

 

I don't know how/where you're getting your numbers, but I put together a quick spreadsheet for the top ten targeted "receivers" last year:

 

Name Tgts Rec Comp.% QBAtt Team %

Megatron 205 122 59.51% 727 28.20%

Wayne 194 106 54.64% 627 30.94%

Marshall 194 118 60.82% 434 44.70%

Welker 174 118 67.82% 637 27.32%

A.Johnson 164 112 68.29% 544 30.15%

Green 164 97 59.15% 528 31.06%

Fitzgerald 153 71 46.41% 555 27.57%

Witten 150 110 73.33% 648 23.15%

S.Johnson 148 79 53.38% 505 29.31%

Vjax 147 72 48.98% 527 27.89%

 

That alone points to a problem. He garnered 44% of the team's targets. No other WR in the NFL was even close. All an opposing defense had to do last year was bracket Marshall, and the Bears' offense was in trouble. Cutler could then throw into coverage where 2 out of 3 possibilities were negative (e.g. INT, INC). After that...time for Cutler to run.

 

[adam]

I don't know how/where you're getting your numbers, but I put together a quick spreadsheet for the top ten targeted "receivers" last year:

 

Name Tgts Rec Comp.% QBAtt Team %

Megatron 205 122 59.51% 727 28.20%

Wayne 194 106 54.64% 627 30.94%

Marshall 194 118 60.82% 434 44.70%

Welker 174 118 67.82% 637 27.32%

A.Johnson 164 112 68.29% 544 30.15%

Green 164 97 59.15% 528 31.06%

Fitzgerald 153 71 46.41% 555 27.57%

Witten 150 110 73.33% 648 23.15%

S.Johnson 148 79 53.38% 505 29.31%

Vjax 147 72 48.98% 527 27.89%

 

That alone points to a problem. He garnered 44% of the team's targets. No other WR in the NFL was even close. All an opposing defense had to do last year was bracket Marshall, and the Bears' offense was in trouble. Cutler could then throw into coverage where 2 out of 3 possibilities were negative (e.g. INT, INC). After that...time for Cutler to run.

The 11% was using TD's numbers and the difference between Marshall and the next highest WR (Green/Wayne). TD reduced the number of targets for when Cutler was out taking Cutler-Marshall down to 42%. I was just saying due to Cutlers low attempts, that 11% is actually only 3 targets per game for Marshall. The percentage seems like that is a lot of targets, but 3 more per game is not that many.

 

I do agree that he was targeted too much, I just don't think, given the circumstances you mentioned in the previous post that Cutler had any other choice but to go to Marshall so often. Though the logical conclusion would've been to just dump it to the 2nd, 3rd or 4th read, the reality would probably have been sack, sack, INT.

[adam]

1. I contend that Bennett was open more often than he was targeted, and his percentage could have increased if he were thrown to when he were open, instead of the forced throw to Marshall.

2. Perhaps, which is why I only allocated a very small change to targets for Davis.

3. Imagine you're playing pickup basketball, and there is a guy on the other team that four of your five opponents absolutely hate (i.e. Jordan freeze out in the all star game). You simply don't guard him as closely because you know he's not getting the ball. I think this happened last year because the opponents knew Cutler was going to throw to Marshall.

4. Based on pure percentages, you are right. But in this fictitious world of reallocating targets, it's pretty easy to remember more than one play where someone was open when Cutler threw it to a bracketed Marshall. In this case, it stands to reason that an NFL player, particularly someone with good hands like Bennett, would have made an open catch where Marshall could not make a closely defended catch. You can't really use the current percentages in this alternate scenario because they would obviously change. Hence, Cutler's completion percentage goes up.

5. It is speculation, but that doesn't mean it's not true. Teams that are more balanced have a better chance of taxing the opposing defense. This is just common sense. And if the opponents viewed Bennett, Jeffery, or anyone else as a greater threat, they would have had to devote less attention to Marshall. You don't spread it around for the sake of just spreading it around (i.e. your #9 hitter), but it makes more sense to let your #2 guy bat a bit more when the #1 guy has handcuffs on.

 

As for the other years, I don't think that's a fair assessment. For one, last year we had a mental midget running the offense, and the OL was horrible. Cutler rarely had time to get to the second read. I make no arguments about Marshall being the first read. He should be. But when you look up, see him covered, and then realize as a QB you better run for your life, there isn't a lot of time to get to #2. Same goes for the previous several years. And at no time, regardless of what Bennett or Hester or Knox did/do, are they going to be #1s, regardless of how mistaken Lovie Smith was. All three are, at best, complimentary. Therefore, we're back to the scenario of an offense having reads, and the QB making those reads, and all of those complimentary guys are not going to be #1 reads. No problem normally, but when you can't get to a second read because your OL falls apart, it affects overall numbers. For the record, if Bushrod, Slauson, and Long pan out, I expect Cutler to have a freaking monster year. This offense's problem has been OL the entire time Cutler has been here. Period.

I believe your summary hits the nail on the head more than anything. Cutler almost had no choice but to go to Marshall, less about of him being the only open WR, but more to do with the offense and amount of time in the pocket. He must have felt a forced ball to Marshall was better than another sack.

 

1. I still don't know how much better a player would be with more targets. Averages are averages, and Bennett has been really consistent throughout his whole career and nothing leads me to believe he would improve with more targets.

3. I understand your scenario, but I just don't think teams honored those other players that much. I just feel Marshall is almost treated like Megatron, regardless of who else is on the field, Megatron is getting extra coverage.

4. I agree with that. If he had time, and there were other players open, Cutler should've looked elsewhere. To me at some point, it almost looked like it became a habit for him, too natural due to the constant pressure.

5. Every year that term gets thrown out there, but there is little correlation for balance = success. In reality, balanced is almost now considered 60/40 Pass/Run. Additionally, with the new style of running QB's, there are a bunch of planned passing plays that turn into runs (far greater than the opposite), masking the true numbers. I know you are not exactly talking about that balance, but I do agree that if we could spread the ball more it would be better for the Bears as a whole (even if that was just a confidence boost for Cutler and WRs).

 

I agree with your summary, and I hope Cutler can take advantage of Trestman's offensive prowess. To me there cannot be any excuses this year. We solidified the OL, added another weapon, and have the potential with a real offensive scheme.

[jason]

I believe your summary hits the nail on the head more than anything. Cutler almost had no choice but to go to Marshall, less about of him being the only open WR, but more to do with the offense and amount of time in the pocket. He must have felt a forced ball to Marshall was better than another sack.

 

1. I still don't know how much better a player would be with more targets. Averages are averages, and Bennett has been really consistent throughout his whole career and nothing leads me to believe he would improve with more targets.

3. I understand your scenario, but I just don't think teams honored those other players that much. I just feel Marshall is almost treated like Megatron, regardless of who else is on the field, Megatron is getting extra coverage.

4. I agree with that. If he had time, and there were other players open, Cutler should've looked elsewhere. To me at some point, it almost looked like it became a habit for him, too natural due to the constant pressure.

5. Every year that term gets thrown out there, but there is little correlation for balance = success. In reality, balanced is almost now considered 60/40 Pass/Run. Additionally, with the new style of running QB's, there are a bunch of planned passing plays that turn into runs (far greater than the opposite), masking the true numbers. I know you are not exactly talking about that balance, but I do agree that if we could spread the ball more it would be better for the Bears as a whole (even if that was just a confidence boost for Cutler and WRs).

 

I agree with your summary, and I hope Cutler can take advantage of Trestman's offensive prowess. To me there cannot be any excuses this year. We solidified the OL, added another weapon, and have the potential with a real offensive scheme.

 

The summary: I think I didn't make it clear. I think Cutler didn't have a choice most of the time other than throwing to the #1 read. I just think they should have designed more plays where another player was the #1 read. THEN, if that guy is covered Cutler could just look towards Marshall and heave it like Cade McNown used to do with MRob. The result would not have been much different than throwing into double or triple coverage when he is the primary target anyway.

 

1. This relates to your point in 5, but confidence helps. I think confidence would make most better, and in terms of more targets, Bennett better percentage-wise. It's like a RB getting three carries up the gut on 3rd and 1. His YPC isn't going to be great. But give him another 10 carries not in that situation, and his average climbs. Same thought process.

 

There could still be excuses. Adding the pieces is only the first step. The pieces must perform. If Bushrod and Slauson sucks, we still have the OL problem. If they don't suck, but Trestman decides to call the equivalent of slamming Garrett Wolfe into the middle of the line three straight times, then we have what I'll call the "Ron Turner Special." There could still be excuses.

[adam]

The summary: I think I didn't make it clear. I think Cutler didn't have a choice most of the time other than throwing to the #1 read. I just think they should have designed more plays where another player was the #1 read. THEN, if that guy is covered Cutler could just look towards Marshall and heave it like Cade McNown used to do with MRob. The result would not have been much different than throwing into double or triple coverage when he is the primary target anyway.

 

1. This relates to your point in 5, but confidence helps. I think confidence would make most better, and in terms of more targets, Bennett better percentage-wise. It's like a RB getting three carries up the gut on 3rd and 1. His YPC isn't going to be great. But give him another 10 carries not in that situation, and his average climbs. Same thought process.

 

There could still be excuses. Adding the pieces is only the first step. The pieces must perform. If Bushrod and Slauson sucks, we still have the OL problem. If they don't suck, but Trestman decides to call the equivalent of slamming Garrett Wolfe into the middle of the line three straight times, then we have what I'll call the "Ron Turner Special." There could still be excuses.

To me I would have to believe that this year, with the new coaches, that things will be different. The offense won't be asleep at the wheel.

 

lol on the Garrett Wolfe reference.