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The gray cloud in the silver lining


CrackerDog

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To get myself to chill with all this 12-4 talk, I took a look at the Bears performance on defense. We're on a pace to give up 408 points. We gave up 277 last year. In fact, only 8 teams last year gave up that many points and guess what... Not one of them was a playoff team.

 

You can sugarcoat this any way you like but if this trend continues, the Bears aren't going anywhere this year. I don't care how good Cutler and Forte turn out to be. The D needs to improve and they can start by getting a little pressure on the opposing QB.

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I took this a step further. The teams remaining on our schedule have averaged scoring about 24 points per game so far this year. If you take that over the 14 games remaining, this means we'll give up another 336 points. Adding our current 51 would yield 387 which is only slightly better than the number I posted above. Now you may say the Bears will give up fewer points than the average because we have a better D, but has that been proven yet? I haven't seen it.

 

Maybe the offensive numbers decline as the weather gets worse. Maybe the offenses have been ahead of the defenses early in the season this year which is the reverse of usual but perhaps it's true. I don't know. But as a fan of the Bears I've been able to count on a stout D for most of my life. I'm not sure how this all pencils out in the end, but I can't get comfortable with this team going a long way in the playoffs if we continue to give up a large number of points.

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So none of these teams will make the playoffs:

 

Atlanta 47

Dallas 48

Detroi 49

Denver 50

Chicago 51

Houston 52

Green Bay 54

St Louis 55

Baltimore 55

San Francisco 57

Philadelphia 60

San Diego 61

 

and these teams will:

 

NY Jets 30

Oakland 30

Tampa Bay 34

Carolina 36

Cleveland 37

 

Scoring is way up this year if you haven't noticed, so historical comparisons for pts (for/against) is sort of irrelevant. Pts differential and turnover differential are better indicators, but even now it is still too early to compare. Maybe after 4 games (25% of season) is the earliest time to compare.

(

Also, like Brian said, Minny had a ST and Defensive TD which would bring us down to 37 (18.5 per game) which is much more realistic to where the Bears defense is at.

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So none of these teams will make the playoffs:

 

Atlanta 47

Dallas 48

Detroi 49

Denver 50

Chicago 51

Houston 52

Green Bay 54

St Louis 55

Baltimore 55

San Francisco 57

Philadelphia 60

San Diego 61

 

That really is crazy, isn't it? I noticed that as I was looking this stuff up. Numbers are high all over! Although Seattle put the smack down on SF last night in the rain. 3 points for ol' Sourpuss Harbaugh.

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Not all the points are scored on the defense. The kickoff return and the fumble recovery this week for example. They only socred 16 on us.

 

And frankly, when the offense stops making mistakes, it will limit opponents scoring even more, both in terms of limiting their time with the ball, and in terms of our defensive front being better rested in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

 

I think we've seen a lot to be happy about - talent, a scheme etc. I also think we've been terribly inefficient, and with good coaching we ought to get much better.

 

It's early, but the trajectory looks good to me.

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My goodness, some of the posts I've read the last 2 weeks are just well, out there...After 2 games last year they were on pace to give 352, yet as you said they only gave up 277....This is like saying Payton Manning is on gonna throw 64 TDs.

 

No question. If they shutout the Steelers next week they'll be on a 17 point per game pace. I'm purposely looking for something negative, as I said in my original post, because I think we're getting a little too giddy.

 

I don't accept the argument that only points scored against the D count. There were points scored on turnovers against us last year too. Apples to apples.

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No question. If they shutout the Steelers next week they'll be on a 17 point per game pace. I'm purposely looking for something negative, as I said in my original post, because I think we're getting a little too giddy.

 

To help stifle the giddyness a little, something to put into perspective was the team went 7-1 last year before "flaming out" to 10-6 AND not make the playoffs. So, it's WAY too early to celebrate. "That's why they play the game."

 

And one other thought; these "two playoff teams" everyone keeps talking about we're one and done in those playoffs. And the Vikings had the same record as the Bears (only made it because of a tiebreaker).

 

And as it stands currently these two teams are currently 0-3. Although by the end of tonight will probabaly be 1-3. Which means the Bears will be squaring off with an 0-2 Steeler team next week. I'll pass on the kool aid, thanks.

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To help stifle the giddyness a little, something to put into perspective was the team went 7-1 last year before "flaming out" to 10-6 AND not make the playoffs. So, it's WAY too early to celebrate. "That's why they play the game."

 

And one other thought; these "two playoff teams" everyone keeps talking about we're one and done in those playoffs. And the Vikings had the same record as the Bears (only made it because of a tiebreaker).

 

And as it stands currently these two teams are currently 0-3. Although by the end of tonight will probabaly be 1-3. Which means the Bears will be squaring off with an 0-2 Steeler team next week. I'll pass on the kool aid, thanks.

We have a long way to go to make the playoffs, but 2-0 is a pretty good start, lets see what the next game has to say about our resilience, but the arrow is pointing up right now.

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To help stifle the giddyness a little, something to put into perspective was the team went 7-1 last year before "flaming out" to 10-6 AND not make the playoffs. So, it's WAY too early to celebrate. "That's why they play the game."

 

And one other thought; these "two playoff teams" everyone keeps talking about we're one and done in those playoffs. And the Vikings had the same record as the Bears (only made it because of a tiebreaker).

 

And as it stands currently these two teams are currently 0-3. Although by the end of tonight will probabaly be 1-3. Which means the Bears will be squaring off with an 0-2 Steeler team next week. I'll pass on the kool aid, thanks.

They're 0-3 because of the Bears. It's not like they lost to Oakland, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay.

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They're 0-3 because of the Bears. It's not like they lost to Oakland, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay.

 

And the Bears haven't beaten anyone that actually WON a playoff game last year. Just keeping things in perspective. Like Stinger said the team has an upward trajectory but they did last year too. One game at a time.

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And the Bears haven't beaten anyone that actually WON a playoff game last year. Just keeping things in perspective. Like Stinger said the team has an upward trajectory but they did last year too. One game at a time.

Yeah but they didn't play anyone who won a playoff game last year, so I don't know how relevant that is. I am just optimistic because we never win games like that, and we now won two and have a lot of room to improve. The offense looks ready to explode and this week might be the week vs a bad PIT team on a short week.

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We have a long way to go to make the playoffs, but 2-0 is a pretty good start, lets see what the next game has to say about our resilience, but the arrow is pointing up right now.

Oh yeah. Long way to go. But it feels good to be 2-0 and to have a bit more confidence that the O can do something when the going gets tough.

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Yeah but they didn't play anyone who won a playoff game last year, so I don't know how relevant that is.

 

At the risk of being called a "troll" (you're welcome Mad), the relevancy is that people keep making the claim that the Bears played 'two playoff teams' from a year ago but forget to mention that neither won their respective playoff games. If they were teams like SF, Seattle, Denver or Baltimore then maybe it would be something worth comparing.

 

My 'counter' came at the expense of Cracker's comment about all the giddyness of what has occured thus far. Don't get me wrong I'm thrilled to see our team do as well as they are (in fact I'm still hoarse from yelling so much on Sunday) I'm just guarded in my optimism.

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;)

 

At the risk of being called a "troll" (you're welcome Mad), the relevancy is that people keep making the claim that the Bears played 'two playoff teams' from a year ago but forget to mention that neither won their respective playoff games. If they were teams like SF, Seattle, Denver or Baltimore then maybe it would be something worth comparing.

 

My 'counter' came at the expense of Cracker's comment about all the giddyness of what has occured thus far. Don't get me wrong I'm thrilled to see our team do as well as they are (in fact I'm still hoarse from yelling so much on Sunday) I'm just guarded in my optimism.

 

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My 'counter' came at the expense of Cracker's comment about all the giddyness of what has occured thus far. Don't get me wrong I'm thrilled to see our team do as well as they are (in fact I'm still hoarse from yelling so much on Sunday) I'm just guarded in my optimism.

 

And I agree with you 100%! I think we need to chill out a little bit. If we all start chirping about how the Bears are destined for the Superbowl we'll sound like nothing more than talk radio idiot callers. I think we're more cerebral around here. At least some of us are. :)

 

 

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And I agree with you 100%! I think we need to chill out a little bit. If we all start chirping about how the Bears are destined for the Superbowl we'll sound like nothing more than talk radio idiot callers. I think we're more cerebral around here. At least some of us are. :)

"Cerebral" and Da Bears fans?! LMAO

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At the risk of being called a "troll" (you're welcome Mad), the relevancy is that people keep making the claim that the Bears played 'two playoff teams' from a year ago but forget to mention that neither won their respective playoff games. If they were teams like SF, Seattle, Denver or Baltimore then maybe it would be something worth comparing.

 

My 'counter' came at the expense of Cracker's comment about all the giddyness of what has occured thus far. Don't get me wrong I'm thrilled to see our team do as well as they are (in fact I'm still hoarse from yelling so much on Sunday) I'm just guarded in my optimism.

That is a good way to put it, guarded. Every year is different, teams that look bad last year are good and good teams look bad. Like you said , one game at a time. I am always in a good mood after a Bear win(no matter how sloppy it might have been). When we lose,just doesnt agree with me. I guess that what happens when you bleed blue. We all can agree, wining is a lot more fun. Until the next game, guarded.

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